Higher lows off 156.95, compressing below NY high.
The 29K NFP miss drove a false break below the 157.47 london low to 156.95. That move fully reversed into higher lows, through the 157.64 pullback low, up to the 157.91 NY high. Late NY has compressed into a 10-pip range between the 157.77 range low and 157.87 into the weekly close, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.77, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 ny high exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 158.22 asia high
Failure to hold the 157.77 range low reopens the 157.64 pullback low
A return below the 157.47 london low would negate the post-NFP recovery and the post-NFP fib structure
Weekend gap risk into Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, now flat · RSI 54 · price 157.847
Tight range 157.77–157.91 below NY high after V-shaped rebound.
The 29K NFP miss broke the London low at 157.47 and hit 156.95, but the drop fully reversed through the pre-NFP pivot near 157.65 to a NY high of 157.914. Late NY has compressed into a 10-pip band above the 157.768 range low, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and price hugging EMA20 into the weekly close.
Support: 157.768, 157.65, 157.47
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.914 ny high puts the 158.00 round number and 158.218 asia high back in play
Loss of the 157.768 range low exposes the pre-nfp pivot at 157.65 and the 61.8% retracement near 157.32
A drop back through the 157.47 london low would undo the post-NFP false break
Thin end-of-week liquidity; Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next catalyst
20:16 UTC
Recovery from NFP low, now flat · RSI 52 · price 157.849
Tight late-NY range 157.77–157.91 after V-shaped post-NFP rebound.
The post-NFP drop to 156.95 (nfp low) was a false break of the 157.47 london low. It fully reversed and stalled at 157.91 (ny high), close to the 76.4% retracement of the asian high-to-nfp low leg. Late NY has compressed into a 157.77–157.91 range with RSI(14) neutral near 52, and the yen has failed to benefit from either hot Tokyo CPI or the payrolls miss.
Support: 157.77, 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 ny high opens the 158.00 psych level and the 158.22 asian high
Break of the 157.77 range low exposes the 157.47 london low
Failure to hold 157.47 puts the 156.95 nfp low back in play
Friday close into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next catalyst that could shift this read
V-shaped NFP reversal now compressing in a tight range below the 157.91 nfp high.
The NFP miss knocked price through the London lows to 156.95, but the drop was fully retraced into NY and capped at the 157.91 nfp high. Late NY has compressed into a 157.77–157.87 range around EMA20, RSI(14) neutral, still inside the Asian range below the 158.22 asian high.
Support: 157.77, 157.64, 157.41
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 nfp high opens the 158.00 psych level, where the digest flags intervention-warning risk
Failure to hold the 157.77 range low exposes the 157.64 swing low and the 23.6% fib of the NFP recovery near 157.69
Loss of the 157.41 higher low would undo the post-NFP recovery structure
Friday close into thin liquidity; ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Post-NFP V-recovery, now flat · RSI 53 · price 157.816
Tight late-NY range 157.77–157.91 after full reversal of NFP drop.
The NFP miss knocked the pair to 156.95 at 12:30 UTC, but the drop fully reversed by the London-NY transition, reclaiming the London range as yen weakness offset broad USD softness. After London close, price is compressing in a 157.77–157.91 band. The range top at 157.91 has rejected twice, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 157.77, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 range top opens the 158.00 psych level, where intervention risk is flagged; the Asia high at 158.22 sits beyond
Failure to hold the 157.77 range low exposes the 157.64 pullback low, then the 157.47 London low
A break back under the 50% of the NFP rebound (~157.43) would undercut the recovery read
Thin late-Friday liquidity; no scheduled catalyst until US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC
19:02 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, now flat · RSI 54 · price 157.822
Late-NY consolidation 157.77–157.91 below the Asia high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a false break of the london low at 157.47 to 156.945. That move was fully reclaimed to a 157.914 ny high, with the post-NFP fib retracement barely touched. Price has since compressed in a 157.77–157.91 band late in NY, below the 158.00 round number and the 158.218 asia high, where intervention risk sits.
Support: 157.768, 157.47
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.914 ny high opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.218 asia high
Failure to hold the 157.768 range low exposes the 157.47 london low near the 38.2% post-NFP fib
Thin late-Friday liquidity, then Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7), could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, now flat in late NY · RSI 57 · price 157.805
Tight range 157.77–157.91 after V-shaped NFP reversal.
The NFP miss spiked USDJPY to the 156.95 nfp low, sweeping the 157.47 London low. Yen weakness then fully reversed the drop, and the post-NFP rally topped at the 157.91 ny high. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 157.77 range low and the ny high, holding well above the 23.6% fib of that rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.77, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.77 range low opens the 157.54 fib 38.2% and the 157.41 swing low
Close above the 157.91 ny high puts 158.00 psych and the 158.22 asian high in play; official intervention risk rises around 158.00
A break of the 156.95 nfp low would invalidate the reversal read
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; next scheduled risk is Monday ISM Services (f/c 55.7)
18:31 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, stalling in late NY · RSI 53 · price 157.793
V-shaped reclaim of the NFP low, now a tight 157.77–157.91 consolidation.
The NFP miss drove a false break below the London low to 156.95. That move was fully reclaimed as yen weakness overrode USD softness, and price is now compressing late in the NY session between the 157.77 range low and the 157.91 session high, RSI(14) neutral near 53. The higher-low trendline off the 157.41 post-NFP HL remains intact, with the 157.64 higher low just above the 23.6% fib of the post-NFP rebound.
Support: 157.77, 157.64, 157.41
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 session high opens the 158.00 round number, flagged for intervention risk, then the 158.22 Asian high
Break of the 157.77 range low and the higher-low trendline exposes 157.64, then the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP rebound near 157.54
Losing the 157.41 post-NFP HL would undo the rebound structure
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity; next scheduled catalyst is US ISM Services, Mon 14:00 UTC
18:16 UTC
V-shaped recovery from the NFP low, now flattening · RSI 59 · price 157.826
NFP spike low fully reclaimed; late-NY range 157.77–157.91.
The NFP miss sent USDJPY through the London low to 156.95, but yen weakness erased the whole drop despite a softer USD. The NFP recovery fib shows almost no retracement. Late NY is now compressing between the ny range low at 157.77 and the session high at 157.91, which has capped twice.
Support: 157.77, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 session high opens the 158.00 round number, where intervention risk is flagged, then the 158.22 asia high
Failure to hold the 157.77 ny range low exposes the 157.41 swing low, the 38.2% area of the NFP recovery fib
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend headline risk ahead of Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could reprice the open
Higher lows from 156.95, tight 157.77–157.91 range late NY.
The NFP miss flushed the pair 60 pips to 156.95 at 12:30 UTC. That break below the European lows was fully reclaimed despite the softer dollar, and NY built higher lows at the 157.41 post-NFP HL, the 157.64 higher low and the 157.77 swing low. After the London close, price is compressing just under the 157.91 session high, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.768, 157.637, 157.411
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 session high opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.22 Asian high
Loss of the 157.77 swing low breaks the post-NFP higher-low chain; the 157.64 higher low and post-NFP fib 23.6% at 157.69 sit below
Failure at the 157.41 post-NFP HL would put the 156.95 NFP low back in focus
Japanese intervention-warning risk around 158.00 caps the upside read
Late-Friday liquidity thinning; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
17:46 UTC
Post-NFP recovery uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 61 · price 157.816
Higher-low chain since the 156.95 NFP sweep, capped at 157.91.
The NFP miss swept below the 157.47 london low to 156.95, but the pair fully retraced through NY on a higher-low chain (157.41, 157.64 higher low, 157.77 swing low) despite broad USD weakness. Late NY, after London close, price is compressing just under the 157.91 session high, tested twice. RSI(14) is near 61.
Support: 157.77, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.77 swing low and the hl trendline breaks the post-NFP higher-low chain, with the 157.64 higher low next
A close above the 157.91 session high reopens the 158.00 round number and the 158.22 asian high
A return through the 157.47 london low puts the nfp leg fib 50–61.8% zone (157.43–157.32) in play
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity is in play, and intervention rhetoric near the 158.00 round number could shift the read before Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC
Higher-low chain from 156.95, stalling under 157.91 session high.
The soft NFP print swept the 157.47 london low to 156.95, but the drop was fully reclaimed as the yen failed to benefit from USD weakness. The NY-session rally has since stepped up in higher lows to the 157.79 swing low and is now capped twice at the 157.91 session high after London close.
Support: 157.79, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 session high exposes the 158.00 round number, then the 157.22-to-158.22 asian high zone; intervention rhetoric risk rises above 158.00
Break of the 157.79 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 157.64 higher low in play and stalls the recovery
Loss of 157.47 london low reopens the post-NFP range toward 156.95
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thinning, and no scheduled US or JPY data falls in the next 8h. Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) is the next catalyst
Higher lows since 156.95 NFP low, stalling below 157.91.
The NFP miss drove a false break below the 157.47 london low to 156.95, but NY hours erased it with a run of higher lows up to the 157.91 nfp high as the yen failed to gain on USD softness. Late in the NY session, price is drifting just under that high with RSI(14) near 60, the 157.79 swing low and the 157.64 higher low holding beneath, and the 158 psych level and the 158.22 asian high overhead.
Support: 157.787, 157.637, 157.47
Resistance: 157.914, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.91 nfp high opens the 158 psych level, then the 158.22 asian high; intervention-rhetoric risk rises above 158.00
Break of the 157.79 swing low exposes the 157.64 higher low and the 50% nfp fib near 157.43
Loss of the 157.47 london low would undo the post-NFP recovery read
Thin late-Friday NY trade into the weekend; Monday ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next high-impact USD risk
Higher-low chain off 156.95, price back above the London high.
The NFP miss at 12:30 UTC sent the pair through the London low to 156.95, but the dip was fully retraced as yen weakness outweighed the softer dollar. A higher-low chain carried price back above the London high at 157.81 to a 157.91 session high. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR has compressed to about 15 pips late in the NY session.
Support: 157.81, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london high at 157.81 stalls the higher-low chain. The 157.64 swing low is the last higher low of the post-NFP rally.
A close above the 157.91 session high puts the 158.00 round number and the 158.22 asian high in play. 158.00 also carries intervention-headline risk.
Loss of the london low at 157.47, near the 38.2% post-NFP fib, would unwind most of the recovery.
Late-Friday liquidity is thin. ISM Services on Mon at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst.
V-recovery, higher-low chain since 12:30 GMT flush.
The 29K NFP miss flushed USDJPY through the London low to 156.95 at 12:30 GMT. The drop was fully retraced during NY hours on a higher-low chain at 157.41 and the 157.64 swing low. Late NY session, price is pressing the 157.92 London high just under the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 157.74, 157.64, 157.41
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 London high and 158.00 round number opens the 158.22 Asian high
Loss of the 157.74 minor low, then the 157.64 swing low, breaks the post-NFP higher-low chain
Break below the 157.41 higher low and the post-NFP trendline would put the 156.95 NFP low back in view
Friday late-NY thinning liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled USD risk
V-recovery from the 156.95 NFP low, retesting the pre-NFP high under the session high.
The 29K NFP miss knocked the pair to 156.95 at the release, but the drop has fully retraced in NY hours. A higher-low chain along the rally trendline has carried price back to the 157.81 pre-NFP high, just under the 157.87 session high, with RSI(14) near 62. The read is consistent with the digest: the yen is failing to gain on USD softness.
Support: 157.81, 157.64, 157.47
Resistance: 157.87, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.87 session high exposes the 158.00 round number and the 158.22 Asian high, where MoF intervention rhetoric risk rises
Failure to hold the 157.81 pre-NFP high turns the level into a rejection and puts the 157.64 higher low back in play
A break of the rally trendline and the 157.47 London low would bring the 50% retracement of the post-NFP rally near 157.41 into focus
Post-London-close liquidity thins into the weekend; Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next event risk for this read
16:16 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the NFP low, pressing session high · RSI 59 · price 157.786
Post-NFP higher-low chain (156.95, 157.41, 157.64) capped at 157.85.
The 29K NFP miss swept the London low at 157.47 down to the 156.95 NFP low. The drop has been fully retraced, with the yen again failing to hold gains. NY hours have built higher lows at the 157.41 swing low and 157.64 along a rising trendline, and price now sits just under the 157.85 session high, after London close.
Support: 157.64, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.85, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 london high reopens the 158.22 asian high, with the 158.00 intervention zone in between
Break of the 157.64 higher low and the post-NFP trendline ends the recovery structure; 157.41 swing low, near the 50% fib, is next
Loss of 157.41 exposes the 156.95 nfp low
Friday post-London liquidity is thin; no scheduled USD/JPY data until Monday's ISM Services (14:00 GMT)
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) cut through the London low to the 156.95 nfp low, but the move was fully reversed in NY hours. A higher low at 157.41 has formed and price is back at the 157.81–157.84 pre-NFP high, with RSI(14) near 64 and the 157.92 london high just above.
Support: 157.64, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 london high and 158.00 round number opens the 158.22 asia high
Break of the 157.64 swing low puts the rebound fib 38.2% near 157.50 and the rebound trendline in play
Loss of the 157.41 higher low undercuts the post-NFP recovery; the 156.95 nfp low is the next reference
Late-Friday NY liquidity is thinning; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled USD risk
V-shaped rebound from 156.95 NFP low, testing London high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USDJPY to 156.95 in the first hour of NY, a false break below the 157.47 London low that has been fully retraced. The 157.41 higher low and the 157.64 swing low have held since. Late NY, price is back at the 157.81 London high with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR about 20 pips, and the 158.00 round number and 158.22 Asia high sit above.
Support: 157.64, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.81, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.81 london high opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.22 asia high
Loss of the 157.64 swing low, then the 157.41 higher low and the rising nfp trendline, would break the rebound structure
Return below the 156.95 nfp low would turn the false break into a range break lower
London close and thinning Friday liquidity; ISM Services on Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver
15:31 UTC
V-shaped recovery from the post-NFP low, stalling at 157.80 · RSI 52 · price 157.698
Failed break below the London low, higher lows since 156.95.
The 29K NFP miss at the NY open pushed USD/JPY through the London low to the 156.95 nfp low, but the break failed and the pair fully retraced, as the digest notes. Price is now capped at the 157.80 pre-NFP high into London close, with a higher low at 157.41 and RSI(14) neutral near 52. The Asian high at 158.22 sits above the London high at 157.92.
Support: 157.47, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.80, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.80 pre-NFP high opens the 157.92 London high, then the 158.22 Asian high.
Losing the 157.47 London low and the 157.41 higher low breaks the rebound structure and brings the 156.95 NFP low back into view.
Thin post-London Friday liquidity and MoF intervention rhetoric near the high-157s could distort intraday swings.
15:16 UTC
Recovery from NFP low, pressing range top · RSI 56 · price 157.78
Higher lows since 156.95; capped at pre-NFP high.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K f/c) produced a false break of the 157.47 London low down to the 156.95 NFP low. The drop was fully reclaimed during NY hours, with an NFP rebound line through the 157.41 NY swing low, in line with the digest's read of underlying yen weakness. Price now sits at the 157.81 pre-NFP high late in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR at about 20 pips.
Support: 157.47, 157.41, 156.95
Resistance: 157.81, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.81 pre-NFP high opens the 158.00 psych level and the 158.22 Asian high
Rejection at 157.81 keeps price inside the 157.47–157.81 London range
Loss of the NFP rebound line and the 157.41 NY swing low would put the 156.95 NFP low back in focus
MoF verbal intervention rhetoric near 158.00 could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 157.469
Lower-high chain from 158.22; post-NFP rebound capped at 157.655.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USDJPY through the 157.47 London low to an NFP low of 156.945 in the first hour of NY. The rebound stalled at the post-NFP high of 157.655, below the lower-high trendline from the 158.22 Asia high. Price is back at the 61.8% of the NFP leg near 157.48, with the 157.41 higher low the nearest floor.
Support: 157.41, 157.06, 156.945
Resistance: 157.655, 157.81, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.655 NFP high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 157.81 London high is next
Failure to hold the 157.41 higher low exposes the 157.06 swing low and the 156.945 NFP low
Round number 158.00 sits at the edge of the intervention-risk zone if the rebound extends
Thin Friday NY afternoon flows into the weekend; ISM Services Monday is the next scheduled USD risk
14:31 UTC
Post-NFP rebound inside a sequence of lower highs · RSI 46 · price 157.546
NFP spike below the London low fully reclaimed; post-NFP higher lows capped near 157.65.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USDJPY through the 157.47 london low to 156.95. The spike was absorbed within the first hour of NY, and price is back inside the London range near 70% of the nfp drop fib. Rebound highs are stalling at the 157.65 post-nfp high, just under the descending trendline from the 158.22 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 157.47, 156.945
Resistance: 157.809, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.65 post-nfp high and the descending trendline exposes the 157.81 london high
Failure to hold the 157.47 london low puts the 156.95 nfp low back in focus
158.00 to 158.22 asian high zone carries intervention risk per the digest
Late-Friday NY liquidity; ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 is the next material USD catalyst
Post-NFP higher low under a descending lower-highs line, back inside London range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) dropped USD/JPY through the London low to an nfp low at 156.95. Price then reclaimed the London range and stalled at the 157.66 post-nfp hi, at the 78.6% of the nfp drop fib. The lower highs from the 158.22 Asian high and the 157.81 London high still cap early NY, while a 157.43 higher low sits above the 157.06 swing low.
Support: 157.43, 157.06, 156.95
Resistance: 157.66, 157.81, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.66 post-nfp hi and the lower highs line puts 157.81 london high back in play
Failure to hold 157.43 higher low reopens 157.06 swing low and the 156.95 nfp low
Thin Friday-afternoon NY liquidity may stretch moves; ISM Services (Mon 14:00 GMT) is the next USD catalyst
Lower highs from the 158.22 Asian high; NFP spike below the London low reclaimed.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USD/JPY to the 156.95 NFP low early in the NY session, but price reclaimed the 157.47 London low and has retraced to the 61.8–78.6% zone of the NFP drop fib from the 157.81 London high. The rebound met rejection at the 157.63 post-NFP high. RSI(14) sits near 48 and price is flat on EMA20.
Support: 157.47, 156.95
Resistance: 157.63, 157.81, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.63 post-NFP high reopens the 157.81 London high
Failure to hold the 157.47 London low puts the 156.95 NFP low back in play
Factory Orders (14:00 GMT) and ongoing NFP digestion could shift this read
158.00 round number sits inside the intervention-risk zone flagged in the JPY digest
Lower highs from 158.22 Asian high; NFP spike to 156.95, half-retraced.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) drove USD/JPY through the prior low at 157.22 to 156.95 in the first NY bar. That extended the lower-high chain off the 158.22 Asian high, which a falling trendline tracks. Price has since recovered to 157.45 and is testing the broken london low near 157.48–157.50 from below, where the 61.8% fib of the 157.81 pre-nfp high to nfp low drop also sits. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 16 pips.
Support: 157.22, 157.06, 156.95
Resistance: 157.49, 157.81
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.50 (london low / 61.8% fib) opens the path back to the 157.81 pre-nfp high and the falling trendline near 157.72
Rejection at 157.50 and a break of the 157.06 higher low exposes the 156.95 nfp low
Loss of the 157.22 prior low on a close confirms the spike low is not holding as support
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could add volatility to the post-NFP retracement
13:16 UTC
Post-NFP flush, rebounding inside the drop · RSI 45 · price 157.425
NFP low at 156.95 held; recovery stalled under broken London low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1%) broke the 157.47 London low and the 157.22 prior low, with the flush reaching 156.95 before buyers stepped in. Early in the NY session, price has reclaimed the fib 50% at 157.38 and is retesting the broken London low from below, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the drop.
Support: 157.38, 157.22, 156.95
Resistance: 157.47, 157.81, 157.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.47 london low and the 61.8% fib reopens the 157.81 pre-NFP high, then the 157.92 London high
Slip back under the fib 50% at 157.38 and the 157.22 prior low puts the 156.95 NFP low back in play
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC; ATR is inflated by the NFP bar, so ranges may stay wide
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive post-NFP leg · RSI 28 · price 157.16
Lower highs from Asia high; London range broken lower.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) drove USDJPY through the 157.47 London low and Thursday's 157.22 prior low to an NFP low of 156.95, extending the lower highs in place since the 158.22 Asia high. Early NY is holding around 157.16, below the 38.2% retracement of the NFP drop (~157.28). RSI(14) is at 28 and ATR is roughly 15 pips.
Support: 156.95
Resistance: 157.22, 157.47, 157.81
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 157.22 prior low weakens the breakdown read
Recovery through 157.47 london low (61.8% of NFP drop) would mark the move as a false break
Failure at 156.95 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could jolt the post-NFP consolidation
Lower highs trendline from 158.22 caps near 157.75; london high 157.81 sits just above it
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, NFP spike extended the leg · RSI 38 · price 157.261
Lower highs since 158.22; London low broken on NFP.
The 12:30 GMT NFP release drove USD/JPY through the 157.47 london low to an nfp low of 156.95. The move extends a run of lower highs from the 158.22 peak that followed Tokyo CPI. Price has since bounced to the 38.2% level of the 157.81–156.95 NFP drop fib (~157.28), with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR expanded by the spike.
Support: 157.00, 156.945
Resistance: 157.47, 157.809
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 157.47 london low would turn the NFP break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number and the 156.95 nfp low extends the post-NFP leg
A close above the lower-highs line and the 157.81 london high negates the intraday downtrend read
Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT and further digestion of the NFP wage data could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.22 Asia high; London range broken to the downside.
The NFP release bar dropped about 35 pips, cutting through the 157.47 London low and Thursday's 157.22 prior low. That extends the lower-highs sequence from the 158.22 Asia high after supply capped the London high at 157.81. Price sits at the 157.18 NFP low with RSI(14) near 34, not yet oversold, and the 157.00 round number just below.
Support: 157.175, 157.00
Resistance: 157.221, 157.47, 157.809
What it said to watch
The NFP bar is still forming. A close back above the 157.22 prior low would mark a false break.
A recovery above the 157.47 London low negates the range-break read.
An M15 close below the 157.00 round number extends the leg. ATR is expanding from around 14 pips, and MoF or intervention commentary plus Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT add event risk.
A break of the lower-highs trendline, last capped at the 157.81 London high, would shift the structure.
12:16 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing above London low · RSI 54 · price 157.664
Lower highs vs higher lows, compressing into NFP.
Since the hot Tokyo CPI, highs have stepped lower from the 158.22 Asian high to the 157.81 session high, while the 157.47 London low has held with higher lows at 157.53 and 157.57. The result is a tight wedge just below the 158.00 psych level, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at about 54 heading into the NFP release.
Support: 157.57, 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.81, 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, about 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read; the release range may far exceed the ~12-pip ATR
An M15 close below the 157.57 higher low, then the 157.47 London low, breaks the base and exposes the 157.22 ism low from Thursday's selloff
A close above the 157.81 session high breaks the lower-high sequence, bringing the 157.92 london open high and the intervention-sensitive 158.00 psych level into play
Higher lows off 157.47 London low, capped at 157.809 swing high.
The 158.218 Asian high gave way after the hot Tokyo CPI, and USDJPY broke under the Asian range at 06:00 GMT before London set a 157.47 low. Price has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but the 157.809 swing high was rejected and price now sits flat on EMA20 just above the 157.572 higher low into NFP.
Support: 157.572, 157.47, 157.221
Resistance: 157.809, 157.919, 158.218
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is imminent; a print far from the 90K forecast can overwrite this structure and expand the ~12-pip ATR
A break of the 157.572 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 157.47 London low back in play, with the 157.22 prior low below
An M15 close above the 157.809 swing high exposes the 157.919 London high; the 158.218 Asian high sits inside the 158.00+ intervention-sensitive zone
11:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low, under session high · RSI 57 · price 157.729
Higher lows from 157.47 since London open, capped at 157.81.
London open broke below the 157.53 asian low to 157.47 as yen strength after the hot Tokyo CPI extended, but the break failed and price has since printed higher lows along rising support, with the asian low retested and held at 08:30 GMT. The 157.81 session high is capping in the late-London lull before NFP, with price above EMA20 and just under EMA50, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 157.53, 157.47
Resistance: 157.81, 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.81 session high opens the 157.92 prior high and the 158.00 psych level, which the market treats as the intervention-sensitive zone
Loss of the 157.53 asian low and the rising support line puts the 157.47 london low back in play and voids the higher-low read
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (ATR ~12 pips) could override this intraday structure in either direction
11:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low, rising lows · RSI 63 · price 157.797
False break below Asian low reclaimed; double bottom at 157.47–157.48, price back mid-Asian range.
London undercut the 157.53 asian low after the Tokyo CPI-driven yen bid. It double-bottomed at the 157.47 london low and has since printed rising lows back inside the Asian range. Price at 157.80 is pressing toward the 157.92 london high, and RSI(14) has firmed to about 63.
Support: 157.53, 157.47
Resistance: 157.92, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h) could materially shift this read. Release range would likely dwarf the ~12-pip ATR.
An M15 close above the 157.92 london high opens the 158.00 round number and the 158.22 asian high. An approach toward 158.00 also raises intervention-headline risk.
A break of the rising lows trendline and a close back below the 157.53 asian low would negate the false break and expose the 157.47 london low.
The Asian session faded from the 158.22 Asian high after the Tokyo CPI beat. The decline broke the 157.78 Asian low and printed a 157.47 London low. Since then, higher lows at 157.49 and the 157.53 swing low have lifted price back to the 157.75 session high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib and the underside of the broken Asian low.
Support: 157.53, 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.75, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~75 min) is likely to override this structure; ATR ~12 pips understates the event range
M15 close back above 157.78 reclaims the Asian low and opens the 157.92 swing high
Rejection at the 157.75 session high / 38.2% fib keeps the London range intact
Break of the 157.53 swing low and 157.47 London low exposes the 157.22 prior low from Thursday's ISM drop
An approach toward 158.00–158.22 raises intervention-headline risk
Compression under falling trendline above 157.47 base.
The Tokyo CPI beat drove an Asia-session fade from the 158.22 Asian high, and early London pushed through the 157.53 Asian low to 157.47 but could not extend. Mid-to-late London has since compressed between 157.47 and the 157.74 lower high, capped by a falling trendline, with the 157.22 prior low from yesterday's NY spike below.
Support: 157.53, 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.74, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) is likely to resolve the 157.47–157.74 compression.
An M15 close above the 157.74 lower high and the falling trendline opens the 157.92 London high.
Loss of the 157.47 London low exposes yesterday's 157.22 prior low.
A return toward the 158.22 Asian high raises intervention-headline risk.
Lower highs since Asia; London base at 157.47 holding.
Highs have stepped lower since the 158.22 asia high as JPY firmed on the Tokyo CPI beat. London pressed to a 157.47 low that has held twice, leaving a tight 157.47–157.71 band into NFP. RSI(14) is near 45 and ATR is about 12 pips.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.71, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.71 swing high and the lower-high line near 157.75 breaks the chain. The 157.92 london high, which sits at the 61.8% fib, is next above.
Failure to hold the 157.47 london low exposes Thursday's 157.22 prior low.
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read. A push toward 158.22 asia high and 158.00 raises intervention-headline risk.
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into NFP · RSI 40 · price 157.616
Lower highs from 158.22; flat lows near 157.47.
The hot Tokyo CPI beat and a softer dollar pulled USD/JPY off the 158.22 asia high. London broke below the Asian range and printed a 157.47 london low. Since then price has compressed in a 157.47–157.71 range with lower highs, sitting just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.71, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read; the event range is likely to exceed the ~13-pip ATR
An M15 close below the 157.47 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.22 thu low
A close above the 157.71 range top breaks the lower-highs line; above that, the fib 50% near 157.84 and the 157.92 london high come next
A move back toward 158.00 and the 158.22 asia high raises the risk of intervention headlines
Lower highs from Asian high; London false break below Asian low.
JPY firmed after the Tokyo CPI beat, and London extended the slide through the asian low at 157.535 to a 157.47 session low. A second hold at 157.48 has price back at the 50% retrace of the drop from the 157.92 london high, with RSI(14) near 47. Lower highs from the 158.22 asian high still cap the tape into NFP.
Support: 157.535, 157.47, 157.221
Resistance: 157.919, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 157.535 negates the false break; loss of the 157.47 session low exposes the prior low at 157.22
Close above the 157.92 london high breaks the lower highs trendline and opens the 158.00 round number, then the 158.22 asian high
Rejection near the 61.8% fib at 157.75 keeps the London downleg intact
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.22; London range 157.47–157.68 below Asian low.
Lower highs since the 158.22 Asian high as JPY firmed after the hot Tokyo CPI. London broke the Asian low and is compressing between the 157.47 London low and the 157.68 range top, under the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib near 157.76, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.68, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.68 range top and the descending trendline near 157.78 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain, with the 157.92 London high next
Failure to hold the 157.47 London low exposes the 157.22 Thursday low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; 158.00 up to the 158.22 Asian high is the intervention-sensitive zone
Lower highs below the broken Asian range; double base at 157.47–157.49.
Hot Tokyo CPI and a softer dollar pushed USDJPY through the asian low at 157.76 early in London, printing a london low at 157.47 that held again at 157.48–157.49. Price is now bouncing to the 38.2% fib of the 157.92–157.47 leg near 157.64, just under the 157.67 lower high. The descending highs from the 158.22 Asian high are still intact and RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.67, 157.76, 157.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.67 lower high and the 50% fib at 157.70 opens a retest of the broken asian low at 157.76
Failure to hold the 157.47 london low exposes the prior low at 157.22 from Thursday's ISM-driven spike
Close above the 157.92 swing high breaks the descending highs sequence
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h45m away) could materially shift this read; the 158.00 area carries intervention risk
Asian range broken lower; London printing lower highs and lower lows.
The hot Tokyo CPI pulled USD/JPY off 158.22 in Asia, and the pre-London break of the 157.76 Asian low set a lower-high chain, with the london high at 157.92 and a swing high at 157.66. Price is holding just above the 157.47 london low, about two hours into London, with RSI(14) near 37 and not stretched.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.66, 157.76, 157.92
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.76, the old asian low and the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg, breaks the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 157.47 london low exposes the 157.22 prior low from Thursday's ISM selloff
Recovery above the 157.66 swing high and 157.92 london high clears the lower-highs trendline
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low broken in London.
The hot Tokyo CPI kept USD/JPY under 158.00, and a run of lower highs from the 158.22 Asian high carried into London. London then broke below the 157.53 Asian low to a 157.47 session low. Price is now pinned between that low and the 157.66 lower high, a 38.2% retrace of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.53, 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.66, 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.47 session low extends the lower-low chain toward Thursday's 157.22 thu ny low
Recovery above the 157.66 lower high and the London leg 61.8% at 157.75 breaks the lower-highs trendline; 157.92 london high sits above
Holding back above the 157.53 asian low turns the London break into a false break
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; 158.00 round number is the pivot the yen digest flags
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 157.564
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 157.92 caps.
The hot Tokyo CPI pulled USDJPY off the 158.22 Asian high. London then broke the Asian low at 157.76, printing a session low at 157.47 after a lower high at 157.92. Price is holding just above the session low mid-London, with RSI(14) near 36 and a descending trendline from the Asian high capping bounces.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.76, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 157.76 negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 157.47 session low exposes yesterday's ism low at 157.22
Break of the descending trendline and the 157.92 lower high shifts structure toward a retest of the 158.22 asian high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 50% fib of the Asia-London drop sits near 157.84
08:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 157.599
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into London.
USD/JPY broke below the 157.76 Asian low at 06:00 GMT and extended to a 157.47 London low. Highs have stepped down from the 158.22 Asian high since the hot Tokyo CPI print, with the latest lower high at 157.92. RSI(14) sits near 40 with price below both EMAs, and yesterday's post-ISM low at 157.22 is the next reference below.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.76, 157.92, 158.22
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.76 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 157.92 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the LH chain
Failure to hold the 157.47 London low exposes the 157.22 ISM low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read, with 158.00 the pivot
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 36 · price 157.587
Asian range broken lower in early London; LH/LL sequence intact.
The hot Tokyo CPI print capped USD/JPY at the 158.22 Asian high. Early London then broke the Asian low at 157.76 and printed a session low at 157.47, with the bounce failing at a lower high of 157.92, near the 61.8% retrace, just under 158.00 psych. RSI(14) is near 36 and not stretched, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 157.47, 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.76, 157.92, 158.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, about 4h out, could materially shift this read
A close back above the 157.76 Asian low turns the break into a false break
A close above the 157.92 lower high and the 158.00 psych level negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.47 session low exposes the 157.38 ny swing and the 157.22 prior low
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 157.724
Asian range broken lower at London open; price back under the Asian low.
London open broke the Asian low at 157.757 and ran to 157.535. The rebound stalled at a lower high of 157.919 and price is back under the Asian low, RSI(14) near 42, extending the lower-high sequence from the 158.218 Asian high as JPY firms on the hot Tokyo CPI. Thursday's NY low at 157.221 is the next reference below.
Support: 157.535, 157.221
Resistance: 157.757, 157.919, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.757 Asian low and the 157.919 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.535 London low exposes Thursday's NY low at 157.221
US NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 158.218 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs through Asia; failed break of the Asian low.
USDJPY printed lower highs through the Asia session from the 158.22 Asian high after the hot Tokyo CPI print. A pre-London break of the 157.76 Asian low ran to a 157.54 session low and was reclaimed. The London-open bounce stalled at the 157.88 50% fib, with price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 157.757, 157.535, 157.377
Resistance: 157.877, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.76 asian low turns the false break into a breakdown toward the 157.54 session low, then the 157.38 swing low
Close above the 157.88 50% fib reopens the 158.00 psych handle and the 158.22 asian high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; intervention risk sits near 158.00 and above
Asia lower highs, late-Asia false break of Asian low reclaimed.
Asia faded from the 158.22 Asian high after the hot Tokyo CPI print, carving lower highs before a late-Asia flush through the 157.76 Asian low to a 157.54 session low. That break was reclaimed into the London open. Price has cleared the Asia downtrend line and now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the sell-off, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 157.76, 157.535, 157.221
Resistance: 157.90, 158.00, 158.218
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.90 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asia sell-off, breaks the lower-high sequence
Slip back below the 157.76 Asian low reopens the 157.54 session low and the 157.22 prior low
158.00 round number capped Asia on intervention caution and is the next test above
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.218; Asian low swept, price back above it.
The hot Tokyo CPI beat (2.7% vs 2.4%) set up a lower-high chain from the 158.218 asian high, and early European trade swept the asian low to a 157.535 session low before bouncing. Price at 157.78 is testing the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib of that drop, with supply capping each bounce under the 157.89 lower high.
Support: 157.757, 157.535, 157.221
Resistance: 157.89, 158.218
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian low at 157.757 turns the sweep into a range break toward the 157.535 session low
A close above the 157.89 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 158.218 asian high
Loss of 157.535 exposes yesterday's NY prior low at 157.221
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 157.651
Asian range broken to the downside pre-London; lower-high sequence from 158.22 intact.
Asia session faded from the 158.22 Asian high after the Tokyo CPI beat. Price printed a string of lower highs, then broke the 157.76 Asian low ahead of London open, tagging a 157.535 session low. RSI(14) sits near 30, and yesterday's NY sell-off swing low at 157.38 and the 157.22 NY low sit below.
Support: 157.535, 157.377, 157.221
Resistance: 157.757, 157.893, 158.218
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the asian low at 157.76 would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 157.89 ends the Asia descending sequence; 158.22 asian high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 157.535 session low exposes the 157.38 swing low and 157.22 ny low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a two-way risk
Lower highs off 158.22 Asian high, pressing session low.
The hot Tokyo CPI print knocked USDJPY back below the 158.00 round number, and the 158.22 Asian high has since been capped by a chain of lower highs along a falling trendline, the latest at 157.89. Price is pressing the 157.75 session low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold, and the 157.61 swing low from NY afternoon sitting below.
Support: 157.75, 157.61, 157.38
Resistance: 157.89, 158.00, 158.22
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 157.75 session low exposes the 157.61 swing low, then the 157.38 post-ISM low
An M15 close above the 157.89 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high read
Reclaiming the 158.00 round number puts the 158.22 Asian high back in play
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 158.22 Asian high, Asian low 157.76 holding.
The Tokyo CPI beat knocked USD/JPY off the 158.22 Asian high, and late Asia has ground lower in a chain of lower highs below 158.00. The 157.76 Asian low is holding so far. RSI(14) sits near 43 and ATR is about 8 pips, so momentum is muted ahead of London open.
Support: 157.76, 157.61
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.76 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.61 swing low
Recovery above the 158.02 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure and reopens the 158.22 asian high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (in ~7h) could materially shift this read; the prior high at 158.44 marks the intervention-sensitive zone
Lower highs off 158.218 Asian high, Asian low 157.757 under test.
After Thursday's NY flush to 157.22 and recovery to 158.26, the hot Tokyo CPI knocked the pair back below 158.00. The Asia session has since printed a lower-high chain from the 158.218 Asian high through the 158.023 lower high, with price pressing the 157.757 Asian low late in Asia, just above the 50% retracement of the NY rebound. The 158.451 day high sits well above, near the 158.44 intervention zone flagged in the digest.
Support: 157.757, 157.617, 157.377
Resistance: 158.023, 158.218, 158.451
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.757 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 61.8% fib at 157.617 and the 157.377 NY swing low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 158.023 lower high breaks the Asia sequence, reopening the 158.218 Asian high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 158.451 day high and intervention-risk zone back in focus
London open in ~1.5h: watch whether the Asian range holds or breaks
Lower highs from 158.22 Asian high, holding just above 157.76 Asian low.
Late Asia session: USD/JPY has carved a lower-high sequence below a falling trendline from the 158.22 Asian high since the hot Tokyo CPI print, with supply capping each bounce below the 158 handle. Price is compressing just above the 157.76 Asian low with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR under 10 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 157.757, 157.611, 157.221
Resistance: 157.888, 158.218
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.76 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.61 swing low
M15 close above the 157.89 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the descending sequence; 158 handle and the 50% asian range fib near 157.99 are next
Loss of 157.61 swing low puts Thursday's 157.22 spike low (thu low) back in view
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; 158.22 Asian high is the upside marker
05:02 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 157.86
Asian range 157.76–158.22, lower highs pressing the asian low.
Late Asia session: the hot Tokyo CPI pulled USDJPY to 157.78. The rebound to the 158.22 asian high faded, and lower highs since have pressed price back toward the 157.76 asian low, with RSI(14) at 40 and both EMAs overhead. Yesterday's NY spike to 157.22 and the ny low at 157.38 sit below, while the 158.45 prior high capped London.
Support: 157.76, 157.38
Resistance: 158.00, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.76 asian low extends the lower-highs sequence and opens the 157.38 ny low
Close back above the 158.00 round number breaks the lower highs line
Rejection or break at the 158.22 asian high defines the range top into London open
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; the 158.45 prior high sits in the intervention-risk zone
04:46 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 157.861
Lower highs compressing above 157.78 Asian low.
Late Asia session. USDJPY was rejected at the 158.22 Asian high after the post-Tokyo CPI dip and has printed lower highs since. Price is compressing just above the 157.78 Asian low and sits on the 38.2% fib of yesterday's NY rebound from 157.22. Intervention risk kept the 158.45 day high capped; RSI(14) is around 36 and ATR is about 9 pips.
Support: 157.78, 157.62
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
A break of the 157.78 Asian low opens the NY rebound fib 61.8% at 157.62
A close back above the 158.02 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence; the 158.22 Asian high sits above
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 158.45 day high is the intervention-sensitive cap
04:31 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into flat support · RSI 38 · price 157.861
Lower highs since 01:45 UTC pressing the Asian low at 157.78.
Late Asia session: the bounce after the hot Tokyo CPI print topped at the 158.22 asian high and faded. Lower highs since then are compressing price onto the 157.78 asian low, tested three times since 00:00 UTC. Yesterday's NY spike low at 157.22, driven by intervention risk, remains the wider intraday reference; RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 157.78, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.61 swing low
A break of the lower highs trendline plus a close above the 158.02 lower high reopens the 158.22 asian high
London open in about 2.5h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the 158.45 prior high is the area where the market context flags intervention risk
Late Asia session. The hot Tokyo CPI print only produced a dip to the 157.78 Asian low. The bounce to the 158.22 Asian high was rejected, and lower highs at 158.02 and 157.96 now press price toward the 157.78–157.81 floor, which has held three times. Yesterday's 158.45 prior high, the intervention-sensitive 158.44 area, capped the pair twice before the NY selloff to 157.22.
Support: 157.78, 157.61
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 Asian low breaks the base and exposes the 157.61 NY swing low
Close above the 158.02 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.22 Asian high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; intervention rhetoric near the 158.45 prior high remains a cap risk
04:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend within a range · RSI 41 · price 157.872
Lower highs since 01:15 UTC, pressing the Asian low.
The hot Tokyo CPI print knocked the pair to a 157.78 Asian low. The rebound to the 158.22 Asian high was rejected, and lower highs since have pushed price back toward that low, below EMA20 and EMA50, mid-Asia session. Yesterday's NY low at 157.22 came on the post-ISM yield slide, and the recovery from it stalled under the 158.45 day high set at London open.
Support: 157.78, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 157.61 NY swing low
A close back above the 158.02 lower high breaks the Asian fade trendline, with the 158.22 Asian high next
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read; the 158.45 day high sits near the intervention-sensitive 158.44 area
Mid-Asia session, price is rotating inside a 157.78–158.22 Asian range. The Tokyo CPI beat drove the asian low at 157.78, and the rebound has since faded to the 61.8% of the Asia swing fib, with a lower high at 158.02 and an intraday low near 157.87 compressing the range. Yesterday's NY flush to 157.22 was recovered, but the prior high at 158.45, set at the London open, has not been revisited.
Support: 157.87, 157.78
Resistance: 158.02, 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.02 lower high reopens the 158.22 asian high
Failure to hold the 157.87 intraday low exposes the 157.78 asian low and a break of the Asian range
US NFP and wages at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Approach to the 158.45 prior high brings Japanese intervention rhetoric risk into play
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY is sitting in the lower half of a 157.78–158.22 Asian range after the hot Tokyo CPI print knocked it from 158.0 to the 157.78 Asian low. The rebound stalled at the 158.22 Asian high, a lower high under the 158.26 NY high, and the 02:00 UTC drop found demand at the 157.81 swing low. Price is now below both EMAs and the prior-day 157.22 NY low from the intervention-fear flush sits well beneath, with the 158.45 prior high capping the window.
Support: 157.81, 157.78, 157.22
Resistance: 158.22, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low breaks the Asian range lower and exposes the 157.22 ny low
Close above the 158.22 asian high breaks the lower-highs line; 158.26 ny high is next
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric near the 158.45 prior high keeps upside extensions two-sided
03:16 UTC
Sideways after yesterday's NY sell-off, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 157.935
Inside Asian range 157.78–158.22, lower high under late-NY peak.
Mid-Tokyo, price sits in the lower half of the Asian range after the push to the asian high at 158.22 was rejected, a lower high under the 158.26 ny high. The hot Tokyo CPI print only produced a brief dip to the asian low at 157.78. Yesterday's intervention-driven flush from the prior high at 158.45 to the prior low at 157.22 still frames the bigger range.
Support: 157.78, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.22, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 157.78 opens the ny swing low at 157.61, then the prior low at 157.22
Close above the asian high at 158.22 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the prior high at 158.45, where intervention fears capped price yesterday
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric near 158.45 could trigger another sharp drop
03:01 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 50 · price 157.964
Lower highs from 158.45, higher lows from 157.22; mid-Asia chop.
Mid-Asia session: the Tokyo CPI beat drew a dip to the 157.78 asian low that was bid back to 158.22, then faded to 157.96, near the 61.8% of that asian range fib and just above the 157.81 swing low. Lower highs from the 158.45 london high and the 158.26 ny high sit against higher lows off the 157.22 NY spike low, which came as intervention fears hit the pair. The range is contracting, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.81, 157.78
Resistance: 158.22, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens 157.38
M15 close above the 158.22 asian high and 158.26 ny high breaks the lower-highs line
Rejection near the 158.45 london high keeps the intervention-capped read intact
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
MoF/Japanese intervention rhetoric near 158.44 can produce outsized spikes like the 157.22 low
02:46 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after NY whipsaw · RSI 48 · price 157.966
Asian range 157.78–158.22, lower high below NY 158.26 peak.
Asia session is building a 157.78–158.22 Asian range inside yesterday's 157.22–158.45 span. The asian low was hit on the muted Tokyo CPI dip and again in the latest selloff, and held both times. Price sits near the 61.8% of the asian range fib, just under flat EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and no clean setup in play.
Support: 157.61
Resistance: 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low exposes the 157.61 swing low from the NY session
Close above the 158.22 asian high reopens the 158.45 prior high, near the 200-day MA at 158.49 cited in the digest
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; intervention rhetoric near 158.45 adds two-way risk
02:31 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift in Asia · RSI 45 · price 157.922
Asian range 157.78–158.22, lower high after rejection at the top.
Asia session is ranging 157.78–158.22. The Tokyo CPI beat produced the dip to the asian low, the bounce met rejection at the asian high, and the latest drop held a 157.81 swing low. Price sits in the 61.8–78.6% fib zone of the Asian rally, below EMA20/50, after yesterday's yield-driven flush to 157.22 was retraced and faded.
Support: 157.81, 157.78, 157.61
Resistance: 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 157.61 ny low
Recovery through the 158.22 asian high reopens the 158.45 prior high, where intervention rhetoric has capped
Failure to hold the 157.81 swing low erases the Asian higher low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; London open sets the range test first
02:16 UTC
Sideways, mild lower highs in Asia · RSI 45 · price 157.948
Asian range 157.78–158.22, price mid-range at 62% of the Asian leg.
Yesterday's NY flush to 157.22 after ISM fully retraced to 158.26. Tokyo CPI then set the asia low at 157.78, and the bounce stalled at the asia high of 158.22. Price is back near 157.95, the 62% level of that Asian leg, after a 02:00 UTC dip to 157.81 held above the low.
Support: 157.78, 157.61
Resistance: 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asia low exposes the 157.61 swing low from the NY session
Close above the 158.22 asia high reopens the 158.45 prior high, near the digest's 158.44 reference
Asian leg fib 61.8% at ~157.95: holding it keeps the range intact
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Neutral, coiling after NY rebound · RSI 52 · price 158.078
Lower highs from 158.45 against higher lows from 157.22, Asian range 157.78–158.22.
The Tokyo CPI dip to the 157.78 Asian low was bought back to the 158.22 Asian high, and price is now mid-range near 158.08 with RSI(14) neutral around 52. Highs keep stepping lower from the 158.45 prior high via the 158.26 NY high, while lows keep rising from the 157.22 NY low, compressing price between the descending highs line and the rising lows line.
Support: 158.00, 157.784, 157.221
Resistance: 158.218, 158.258, 158.451
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.22 Asian high and 158.26 NY high breaks the descending highs line and puts the 158.45 prior high back in view, where intervention risk is flagged
Loss of the 158.00 round number, then the 157.78 Asian low, breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 157.22 NY low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Asian range holding into the London open keeps the consolidation read intact
Higher lows off the Tokyo CPI dip, capped below the NY high.
Mid-Asia session, the pair has recovered from the muted Tokyo CPI dip to the 157.784 cpi low, putting in a higher low at 157.986. The rebound stalled at the 158.218 asian high, just under the 158.258 ny high that tops the range left after yesterday's NY flush to 157.22. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 11 pips.
Support: 157.986, 157.784
Resistance: 158.218, 158.258, 158.451
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.258 ny high opens the 158.451 london high, near the 158.44 area flagged for intervention risk
Failure to hold the 157.986 higher low puts the 157.784 cpi low back in play and points to a range-bottom retest
Repeated stalls at the 158.218 asian high under the range top keep the session range intact
NFP, AHE and unemployment at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the Asian high · RSI 56 · price 158.149
Higher lows off the 157.784 Asian low, capped near 158.22.
Asia session dipped to the 157.784 Asian low after the hot Tokyo CPI. It then reclaimed the 158.00 round number on a higher-low sequence and is now stalling at the 158.218 Asian high, just under the 158.258 NY high. Price is still inside the 157.22–158.45 range of the past 24h, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 158.074, 158.00, 157.784
Resistance: 158.218, 158.258, 158.451
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.258 NY high exposes the 158.451 prior high, the 158.44 intervention-sensitive zone
Break of the 158.074 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 158.00 round number
Loss of the 157.784 Asian low invalidates the recovery structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; any MoF rhetoric could also reprice the pair
01:16 UTC
Range, intraday recovery off Asian low · RSI 57 · price 158.149
V-recovery from 157.78 Asian low, now pressing the Asian high below the 158.26 NY high.
The hot Tokyo CPI dipped the pair to a 157.78 Asian low below the earlier 157.82 lows. That break failed: price reclaimed the 158.00 psych level and is now testing the 158.19 Asian high, roughly 77% back up the fib of the 158.26 NY high to Asian low move. The London high at 158.45, just below the 200-DMA, capped yesterday ahead of the intervention-led NY drop to the 157.22 NY low, so the pair sits mid-range.
Support: 158.00, 157.78, 157.22
Resistance: 158.19, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high exposes the 158.45 London high and 200-DMA zone, where intervention risk capped price yesterday
Slip back below the 158.00 psych level puts the 157.78 Asian low back in focus
A loss of the 157.78 Asian low reopens the path toward the 157.22 NY low
Any MoF verbal warning near 158.45 could trigger another sharp JPY spike
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read later in the day
01:02 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a wide range · RSI 55 · price 158.124
Higher lows off the 157.78 cpi low, testing the 158.15 asia high.
The NY-session flush to 157.22 after US ISM was retraced into the 158.26 NY high. Early Asia sold off after the hot Tokyo CPI to a 157.78 cpi low, then buyers stepped in. Price has cleared the desc trendline off the NY high and is now pressing the 158.15 asia high, above the 0.618 fib of the 158.26–157.78 drop.
Support: 158.00, 157.784, 157.611
Resistance: 158.156, 158.258, 158.451
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 ny high opens the 158.45 day high, the 200-DMA zone where intervention rhetoric has capped the pair
Rejection at the 158.15 asia high and a slip back below the 158.00 round number returns focus to the 157.78 cpi low, then the 157.61 swing low
Any MoF verbal warnings could knock the pair back through 158.00 abruptly
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off NY low · RSI 49 · price 158.036
Higher lows from 157.22; price mid Asian range 157.78–158.11.
Early Asia session. The hot Tokyo CPI print dipped the pair to the 157.78 Asian low, where demand stepped in and price was lifted back toward the 158.11 session high. Price is holding just above the 61.8% fib of the 158.45–157.22 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and higher lows intact on the rising support from the NY low.
Support: 157.98, 157.78, 157.61
Resistance: 158.11, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support, exposing the 157.61 swing low
M15 close above the 158.11 session high opens the 158.26 ny high
158.45 day high sits in the intervention-risk zone; any MoF rhetoric could trigger a sharp reversal
Slipping back under the 61.8% fib at 157.98 puts the Asian range low back in focus
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 157.92
Lower highs since the 158.26 NY rebound high; Tokyo CPI spike faded.
Early Asia is grinding lower in a chain of lower highs off the 158.26 NY high. The hot Tokyo CPI spike to the 158.05 cpi high was rejected, leaving price at 157.92 below EMA20/50 and between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the NY rebound fib. The 157.78 cpi low is the nearest floor, and the 158.45 london high is capped by intervention risk.
Support: 157.78, 157.61
Resistance: 158.05, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 cpi high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure at the 157.78 cpi low exposes the 157.61 swing low near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib
Reclaim of the 158.26 ny high reopens the 158.45 london high, where MoF intervention rhetoric has capped price
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 158.26 rebound high; early Asia trading below 158.00.
After the 14:30 UTC spike to the 157.22 spike low and the NY rebound high at 158.26, the pair has printed lower highs along a falling trendline. It has slipped back under the 158.00 psych level into the Tokyo CPI window, setting a 157.82 session low, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 7.5 pips. The 158.45 day high from the London open, just under the intervention-sensitive 158.44–158.49 zone, still caps the window.
Support: 157.82, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.00, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.00 psych and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.82 session low exposes the 61.8% fib and swing low at 157.61, then the 157.22 spike low
Tokyo CPI actuals (core f/c 2.4%) not yet in feed; a hot print could extend JPY strength in the Asia session
NFP at 12:30 UTC Fri is the next major USD risk; a strong print brings the 158.26 rebound high and 158.45 day high back into view