19:03 UTC
Macro uptrend stalled, correcting since the July 2026 cycle high · RSI 45 · price 156.958
Broad 152.9–160.4 range below the cycle high; lower highs, price on EMA50.
The macro uptrend from the April 2025 low at 139.89 peaked at the 163.99 cycle high in July 2026. Since the late-July collapse the pair has traded a broad 152.9–160.4 range, with the 160 cap rejecting twice and a lower high at 159.03. Price now sits on the W1 EMA(50) near 156.20 and below the EMA(20), between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the 2025-26 fib, and the regime has shifted from trend to correction while the rising support line off the 2025 low and the Sep low at 152.89 stay intact. This week's NFP miss knocked USD, but yen softness on fading BoJ October hike bets left the pair little changed near 157, with intervention risk flagged around 158.
Support: 156.20, 152.89, 152.09
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the ema50 at 156.20 puts the Sep low at 152.89 and the rising support line in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
- Weekly close above the 159.03 lower high and the 160 cap reopens the 163.99 cycle high
- Jan low at 152.09, near the 50% retracement of the 2025-26 fib, is the last multi-quarter floor above the rising support line
- ISM Services (Mon Oct 5) and Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Tue Oct 6) could materially shift this read; MoF intervention risk rises above 158.00