10:33 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend, correcting since July top · RSI 46 · price 157.334
Lower highs below 164.0, holding above 152-153 base.
The uptrend from the April 2025 low at 139.89 peaked at the 163.99 cycle high in mid-July 2026. The move above the 160 cap proved a false break: a 630-pip reversal week took price back inside the 152-160 band, and September's slide to 152.89 held the Jan-Feb base low near 152.1. Price sits at 157.33, just above the W1 EMA50 at 156.2 and below the flattening EMA20 at 158.3, with RSI in neutral mid-range. Coordinated US-Japan intervention threats and BoJ hike bets have capped rallies below 160, while Fed hike pricing keeps the ema50 and the Aug low at 155.2 underpinned for now.
Support: 156.20, 155.20, 152.10
Resistance: 158.30, 160.40, 164.00
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the ema50 at 156.2 exposes the Aug low 155.2, then the 152.1 base low
- Weekly close below 152.1 base low breaks the multi-quarter support and the uptrend structure
- Weekly close above the 160 cap (160.4) reopens the 164.0 cycle high and ends the lower-highs sequence
- Core PCE today and NFP later this week could reprice Oct Fed hike odds and move this read
- Fed (~Oct 28) and BoJ (Oct 30) within days, plus any rate-check reports, could reset the 152-160 range