USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend from Friday, compressing under lower highs · RSI 59 · price 157.403
Lower highs 157.85→157.71→157.54; higher low at 156.65 after a false break of 156.50.
Friday's NY-session slide from 158.93 set the tone, and since Monday's 157.22 open the pair has compressed under a descending line of lower highs at 157.85 and 157.71. Wednesday's Asia-session drop to a 156.38 week low failed to hold below Monday's 156.50 low. The NY session then lifted price off a 156.65 higher low, as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats offset the soft PCE miss. Price is back above the weekly open and both EMAs, which sit near 157.18 and 157.26, with RSI(14) near 59. It is testing the day high at 157.54, just above the 38.2% retracement (157.35) of the Friday–Wednesday drop.
Support: 157.22, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.54, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high line and the 157.71 tue high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 157.85 week high
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and the EMA cluster puts the 157.00 option strike and the 156.65 higher low back in play
A break below the 156.38 week low extends Friday's downtrend
Tankan at 23:50 UTC tonight: a hawkish print or intervention headlines could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday, with Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC
20:03 UTC
Range after Friday's slide, recovering off the week low · RSI 59 · price 157.42
156.38–157.85 range with lower highs; higher low set Wednesday NY.
Since Friday's NY slide from 158.9, USDJPY has held a 156.38–157.85 range. The pair has printed lower highs from Monday's 157.85 week high and Tuesday's 157.71 tue high. Wednesday's Asia-session break under Monday's low to a 156.38 week low did not hold, and the soft core PCE miss only produced a higher low at 156.65 in the NY session. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI prints then lifted price back above the 157.22 weekly open, the 157.00 round number and both EMAs. Price now sits at 157.42, just under the 157.46 wed high and above the 61.8% level of the week range fib, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.38
Resistance: 157.46, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.46 wed high and the lower-highs trendline near 157.57 opens a retest of the 157.71 tue high and the 157.85 week high
Failure back below the 157.22 weekly open and the 157.00 round number returns price to the lower half of the range
A break of the 156.38 week low negates the higher low and extends Friday's decline
Tankan at 23:50 UTC tonight (Large Manufacturing f/c 25) could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC; any rate check or intervention headline overrides the range structure
19:02 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs, NY rebound off lows · RSI 61 · price 157.335
Lower highs from 157.85; higher low at 156.65 off the 156.38 week low.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at the 157.85 week high, and Wednesday's Asia-session drop set the 156.38 week low as yen demand built on intervention warnings. Twin lows at 156.65 held through London and the US data hour. The NY rebound on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats has lifted price back above the 157.22 week open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 61. Price now sits at the 61.8% level of the week range fib, below the lower highs line near 157.58 and the 157.71 tue high.
Support: 157.22, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.58, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs line near 157.58 breaks the week's sequence and exposes the 157.71 tue high and 157.85 week high
Return below the 157.22 week open puts the 156.65 twin lows back in focus; a break there negates the higher low and opens the 156.38 week low
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday are the next scheduled USD catalysts
18:03 UTC
Range after Friday's drop, lower highs · RSI 54 · price 157.325
Friday's London-into-NY slide from 158.9 to 156.9 set the tone. Since the weekly open at 157.22, price has rotated inside a 156.38–157.85 range, with the week high on Monday and the Tuesday high capping at progressively lower levels along a falling trendline. Wednesday's Asia-session drop to the 156.38 week low came on intervention-driven yen demand. The post-PCE dip then held the 156.65 pce low twice for a higher low, and ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted price back above EMA(20) near 157.13 and the weekly open. Price is now testing the 157.37 ny high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Friday–Wednesday decline, with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 157.22, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.37, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.37 ny high and the falling trendline near 157.58 opens the tue high at 157.71 and the week high at 157.85
Rejection at the 38.2% fib keeps the range read, with 157.52–157.58 capping rallies
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and EMA(20) returns focus to the 156.65 pce low; a break there would undo the Wednesday higher low
Failure to hold the 156.38 week low confirms a lower low and a break of the range base
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) could also shift the read, as could MoF intervention headlines
156.38–157.85 range with lower highs since Monday.
USD/JPY has held a 156.38–157.85 range since Friday's London-to-NY slide from 159.03. Each session peak this week has come in lower: the week high at 157.854 on Monday, the Tue high at 157.713 near the 50% fib of Friday's drop, then the Wed high at 157.456. Wednesday's Asia push to a new week low at 156.375 on US-Japan yen-cooperation headlines did not extend. The post-PCE dip then stalled at the pce low of 156.648 before strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI data lifted price back above EMA(20) at 157.08. Price now sits on the week open at 157.22, with RSI(14) at 57 and the lower-highs trendline near 157.60 overhead.
Support: 157.219, 156.648, 156.375
Resistance: 157.456, 157.713, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Wed high at 157.456 challenges the lower-highs sequence, with the Tue high and 50% fib at 157.71 next
Failure to hold the week open at 157.22 returns focus to the pce low at 156.648 and the week low at 156.375
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the week high at 157.854 would invalidate the range read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC tonight could materially shift this read; Fed's Cook speaks earlier at 19:25 UTC
Lower highs 157.85/157.71 over a 156.38–156.65 base.
Friday's NY-session slide from 158.9 to 156.94 set the tone. Since Monday's 157.22 weekly open, USD/JPY has held a 156.38–157.85 range, with lower highs from the 157.85 week high to the 157.71 tue high. Intervention fears drove Wednesday's Asia-session drop to the 156.38 week low. The soft core PCE print pushed price to 156.65 in the NY session, where a higher low formed and was followed by a rejection of the downside. The pair is back above EMA(20) at 157.09, the 157.00 round number and the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 53 and price about 67% retraced of the Tue-Wed drop.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.38
Resistance: 157.52, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.52 prior high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression, exposing the 157.71 tue high and 157.85 week high
Loss of the weekly open and 157.00 round number reopens the 156.65 higher low and the 156.38 week low
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight and Japan's Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF verbal intervention or rate-check headlines would pressure the range base
The week opened at 157.22 and has printed a sequence of lower highs, from Monday's 157.85 week high through Tuesday's high at 157.71, both rejected. Wednesday's Asia session slid to the 156.38 week low as intervention-cooperation headlines lifted the yen. The soft US core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC pushed price back to the Wednesday base at 156.65, where demand stepped in again. The NY-hours bounce has stalled at the 50% retracement of the week's range and the lower-highs trendline near 157.12, with price pinned at the ema20 around 157.05 and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 157.05, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.22, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 157.22 weekly open breaks the lower-high sequence; the tuesday high at 157.71 sits above
Failure to hold the Wednesday base at 156.65 exposes the 156.38 week low
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later today and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst for the range
Lower highs and lower lows; compressing below EMA(20) after Wednesday Asia low.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 157.85 week high in Monday's Asia session. Wednesday's Asia slide on intervention talk and half-year repatriation set a new week low at 156.38, and the rebound stalled just above the 157.22 weekly open, near the 61.8% of the week range. Price has since held below the EMA(20) around 157.02, which overlaps the 157.00 option strike. The soft core PCE print dipped the pair to 156.65, now the pce low, with RSI(14) near 41 and ranges contracting.
Support: 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.02, 157.22, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 157.02 and the 157.00 strike would break the pattern of hourly closes below it
A close above the 157.22 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 156.65 pce low exposes the 156.38 week low; a break there extends the lower-low structure
Fed's Cook/Goolsbee/Kashkari later today and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC is the next major USD input; a recovery toward the 157.85 week high would need a strong print
Lower highs from 157.854; week low at 156.375, chop below 157.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session week high at 157.854. Today's Asia session broke the 156.505 Monday low to set a 156.375 week low as Katayama's undervaluation remarks, Williams' dovish tilt and half-year-end repatriation lifted the yen. The rebound stalled at the 157.254 day high, just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop, and price has since chopped below the 157 strike with EMA(20) and EMA(50) overhead and RSI(14) near 39. The ADP beat left no lasting bid, and the 156.65 intraday low was retested into NY hours.
Support: 156.648, 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.254, 157.854
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 157 strike and the 157.254 day high breaks the lower-highs sequence and weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 156.65 intraday low exposes the 156.505 Monday low and the 156.375 week low; a close below extends the lower-low sequence
US core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read. A hot print tests the lower-highs trendline near 157.6 and the 157.854 week high; a soft one pressures the week low
Tankan at 23:50 UTC (large manufacturing f/c 25) and any MoF escalation beyond verbal warnings are yen-side risks to the structure
Lower highs from 159.03, consolidating at the 157 strike.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak, and each leg lower has come in Asia or London hours. Monday's London-open flush reached the 156.50 mon low, and today's Asia-session slide set a 156.38 week low on Katayama intervention talk, half-end repatriation and a softer USD after Williams. Price has since recovered to sit on the 157 strike, just under EMA(20) and the 157.22 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 45. The tue high at 157.71 lines up with the 50% level of the week decline fib.
Support: 156.50, 156.38
Resistance: 157.22, 157.71
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 157.22 weekly open and the lower-high trendline (~157.40) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the tue high at 157.71
Failure to hold the 157 strike exposes the 156.50 mon low and the 156.38 week low; a break extends the lower-low sequence
Intervention headlines and the Tankan release at 23:50 UTC can reset the range
USD/JPY has slipped back below the 157.22 week open after Wednesday's Asia session sell-off to a 156.38 week low, driven by Williams' dovish tilt, repatriation flows and intervention warnings. That low undercut Monday's 156.51 trough before recovering, a false break inside the 156.40–157.85 range, while highs have stepped lower from the 157.85 week high to the 157.71 Tuesday high and today's 157.25, with the Tuesday high capped at the 50% retracement of the 159.03–156.38 decline. Price is now pinned near the 157.00 round number and option strike, just under EMA(20) near 157.09, with RSI(14) around 46.
Support: 157.00, 156.65, 156.38
Resistance: 157.22, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read, with the 157.00 round number as the pivot
An H1 close above the 157.22 week open and the lower-highs trendline near 157.61 would break the lower-highs sequence toward the 157.71 Tuesday high
Failure to hold the 156.65 London low exposes the 156.38 week low, and a close below it would confirm a range break
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any rate-check headlines are JPY-side risks to the range
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 43 · price 156.988
Lower highs from 157.85, fresh lower low at 156.38 in Asia, now in a 156.65–157.25 band.
USDJPY opened the week at 157.22, printed the week high at 157.85 early Monday and has carved lower highs since, capped near 157.70 twice on Tuesday. Sliding US yields and fresh Katayama jawboning drove a lower low at the 156.375 week low in today's Asia session, below Monday's NY low at 156.505. The rebound stalled at the 157.25 bounce high, near the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday leg. Price is now rotating just under the 157.00 psych level and the H1 ema20 near 157.08, above the 156.65 London low, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 156.649, 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.08, 157.254
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read around the 157.00 psych level
H1 close back above the 157.25 bounce high and weekly open reclaims the fib 61.8% and breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 156.65 London low exposes the 156.505 monday low and 156.375 week low
H1 close below the 156.375 week low extends the lower-low structure
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines add event risk after the NY session
Lower highs 159.03 → 157.85 → 157.71 → 157.25; lower low at 156.38 in today's Asia session.
The decline from Thursday's 159.03 high has kept a lower-high sequence intact. Monday's rally stalled at the 157.85 week high, and Tuesday's 157.71 tuesday high sits at the 50% retracement of that decline. During today's Asia session, fresh intervention warnings from Tokyo drove a break of the 156.50 monday low to a 156.38 week low, but that move was quickly reclaimed as a false break. Price is now pinned at the 157.00 psych level, just under an ema20 near 157.10, with RSI(14) holding in the low 40s.
Support: 157.00, 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.10, 157.254, 157.713
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 157.25 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 157.71 tuesday high
Failure to hold 157.00 psych reopens the 156.50 monday low; acceptance below the 156.38 week low confirms a fresh lower low
Tankan (23:50 UTC) and any escalation from verbal to actual yen intervention
Lower highs from 159.03; Monday-Tuesday range broken lower in Wednesday Asia.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak, with the Monday high of 157.85 and the tuesday high of 157.71 forming a descending lower-highs line near the 50% retracement of the Thursday-to-week-low decline. Wednesday's Asia session broke below the monday low at 156.51 to a fresh week low at 156.38 on Katayama's FX-cooperation remarks, then the soft Japan IP and retail data drove a bounce that stalled at the 157.25 asia high. Price sits just under 157.00 and the EMA(20) near 157.10, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.10, 157.254, 157.713
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 157.10 and the 157.25 asia high weakens the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the monday low at 156.51 puts the 156.38 week low back in play
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the tuesday high at 157.71 invalidates the downtrend structure
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any MoF or Bessent intervention remarks add headline risk
Lower highs from 157.85 with a fresh week low at 156.375.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Monday's 157.854 week high. The tue highs near 157.70 capped both the London and NY rebounds on Tuesday. Asia session selling on Wednesday then broke the Monday low at 156.505 and set a fresh week low at 156.375, as Tokyo's intervention warnings kept the yen bid despite weak Japanese data. The bounce was rejected at the 157.254 swing high, near the 61.8% retracement of the week's range, and price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.254, 157.70, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.375 week low extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 157.254 swing high and the lower highs line near 157.60 invalidates the downtrend read
A return to the tue highs at 157.70 and the week high at 157.854 would neutralise the week's structure
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Japan Tankan at 23:50 UTC adds yen event risk before the next Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows; Tuesday's range broke lower in Asia.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 top: Monday's 157.85 week high, Tuesday's cap near 157.70 at the 50% fib of the Thursday–Wednesday move, and today's 157.25 lower high. Today's Asia session broke Tuesday's 157.00–157.70 range as Katayama's intervention warnings firmed the yen. Price undercut the Monday low at 156.505 to a 156.375 week low. The rebound stalled just above the weekly open at 157.22, and price is now back below the 157.00 round number, under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.254, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.25 lower high and weekly open negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 156.375 week low extends the lower-low structure; Monday low 156.505 is the first test
A move through the lower highs trendline near 157.60 and the week high at 157.85 would break the downtrend read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC and any MoF escalation on yen intervention
05:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, ranging below EMAs this week · RSI 43 · price 157.119
156.40–157.85 range with lower highs; Asia sweep below Monday low reclaimed.
USDJPY has stayed well below Thursday's 159.03 high since Friday's NY-session drop, as intervention warnings from Tokyo lifted the yen. This week has been confined between the 157.85 week high and roughly 156.40, with lower highs at 157.85, 157.71 and 157.70 and each rally fading under the lower highs line. During the Asia session today, price swept below the 156.50 Monday low to a 156.38 week low, then snapped back above the 157.00 round number. It now sits just under ema20 near 157.19 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 157.00, 156.50, 156.38
Resistance: 157.19, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 156.50 monday low turns the Asia false break into a lower low beneath the 156.38 week low
Acceptance above ema20 at 157.19 and the lower highs line near 157.63 would open the 157.71 tuesday high, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the 159.03 drop
A close above the 157.85 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
MoF intervention data due today: a zero figure versus confirmed yen buying is the key JPY risk to the 157.00 round number
04:02 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, range-bound since Monday · RSI 38 · price 156.862
Lower highs at 159.03, 157.85 and 157.71; range low swept overnight.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak. Friday's NY-session slide carried it to 156.94, and Monday–Tuesday then held a 156.50–157.71 range, with the range top capping twice. In today's Asia session, Katayama's 'undervalued yen' remarks pushed price through the Monday low to a 156.375 week low. It has since recovered above 156.50 but still sits below the 157.00 round number, which is also the 23.6% retracement of the 159.03 decline. Price trades under EMA(20) near 157.17 and just below the week open, with RSI(14) near 38 and off its lows despite USD strength elsewhere.
Support: 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.22, 157.71
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 156.50 monday low turns the false break into a range break and exposes the 156.38 week low
Reclaim of the 157.00 round number and 157.22 week open would restore the mid-range read
Lower highs trendline and range top at 157.71 (50% of the 159.03 decline fib) remain the cap on rebounds
MoF intervention disclosure today, then US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 34 · price 156.672
Lower highs inside 156.50–157.85 range after Friday's drop from 159.03.
The drop from 159.03 began in London and ran into the NY open on Friday on Trump's yen concern. Monday and Tuesday then held a 156.50–157.85 range, with lower highs capping near 157.70. In today's Asia session, Katayama's warnings and the reaffirmed Bessent cooperation drove a 100-pip slide: price wicked through the monday low to a new week low at 156.375, but H1 closes stayed above 156.50. RSI(14) sits near 34 and price is below the ema20 (~157.18) and the round number at 157.00, which now overlaps the 23.6% retracement of the drop from 159.03.
Support: 156.505, 156.375
Resistance: 157.00, 157.18, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.375 week low turns the wick through the monday low into a confirmed range break lower
Reclaim of the 157.00 round number and the ema20 near 157.18 returns price to the middle of the range
Close above the 157.854 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence
MoF intervention disclosure today could materially shift this read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today, then Tankan at 23:50 UTC, are the next event risks
Since Thursday's 159.03 peak, the Friday NY-session slide and Monday's London drop to the 156.50 weekly low set the tone. Rebounds have since formed lower highs at the 157.85 week high and 157.71, stalling near the 50% retracement of the drop, with EMA(20) at 157.28 capping the pair. Asia session today added an 80-pip leg to a 156.61 session low, back below the 157.00 round number, as JPY stayed firm on intervention risk and BoJ hike bets despite Japan's IP and retail misses. RSI(14) sits near 33.
Support: 156.61, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.28, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.50 weekly low breaks the week's range floor
Recovery above the 157.00 round number returns price to the Tuesday range
Lower-highs trendline from 157.85 and the ema20 at 157.28 cap rebounds
MoF intervention data (Wed) could materially shift this read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC today are the USD-side risk
01:02 UTC
Corrective range after Friday's drop, lower highs forming · RSI 44 · price 157.108
Contracting range 156.51–157.85, rising lows line breached in Asia.
Friday's NY-session slide from 159.03 set the tone, and Monday's London-open dip to the 156.51 monday low marked the floor. Rebounds have since printed lower highs at 157.85, the 157.71 tuesday high and 157.46, the latter sitting at the 38.2% fib of the drop, as intervention rhetoric from Katayama offsets the broad USD bid. Price trades below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44, and the Asia-session dip to 157.04 has closed beneath the rising lows line, leaving the 157.00 psych and 156.98 tuesday low as the nearby floor.
Support: 157.00, 156.98, 156.51
Resistance: 157.46, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.98 tuesday low exposes the 156.51 monday low and ends the contracting range
Close above the lower highs line and the 157.71 tuesday high breaks the lower-high sequence, with 157.85 monday high next
MoF intervention data today: a nonzero total would test the 157.00 psych floor
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows compressing below the 38.2% retrace.
USDJPY has held a 156.98–157.71 box since Monday's London-session flush to the 156.51 week low. That low capped last week's intervention-driven slide from 159.03. Lower highs from the 157.85 week high and higher lows off 156.51 are compressing into a pennant just under the 38.2% retrace (~157.47) of that move. Price sits between EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR easing to ~19 pips, as Fed-hike pricing offsets JPY demand tied to intervention threats and the weekly open at 157.22 is crossed repeatedly.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.51
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.98 tuesday low and the higher-lows line reopens the 156.51 week low
H1 close above the 157.71 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line; 157.85 week high and the 158.00 round number sit above
Wednesday's MoF intervention data could materially shift this read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday, followed by Tankan at 23:50 UTC, are the next volatility risks for the pennant