USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Higher lows since Wednesday, capped at week high · RSI 53 · price 158.026
Higher-low sequence off 156.38; consolidation below the 158.45 week high.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Wednesday's Asia-session low at 156.38. Thursday's Asia-to-London leg, driven by firmer US yields and a dollar at annual highs, stalled three times at the 158.45 week high as intervention concerns capped the topside. The NY-session flush to the 157.22 thu low held just above the 61.8% level of the week impulse fib and was fully reclaimed, leaving price consolidating above the ema20 near 157.97 with RSI(14) back at a neutral 53, while the rising trendline converges with the 157.43 mon open.
Support: 157.97, 157.43, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print that drives a close below the ema20 at 157.97 puts the 157.43 mon open back in focus
H1 close above the 158.26 late high reopens the 158.45 week high, where three rejections and intervention sensitivity have capped price
Failure to hold the 157.22 thu low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence from Wednesday
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is the next scheduled risk to the consolidation
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher low held in NY · RSI 58 · price 158.079
Breakout above Mon-Wed range, deep retest recovered.
After a 156.38–157.85 range from Monday through Wednesday's Asia-session low, the pair broke higher in Thursday's Asia session as the BoJ Summary of Opinions trimmed October hike bets. It printed the 158.45 week high into the London open, where intervention jitters produced a rejection. The NY-session flush around the ISM release found its ny low at 157.22, near the 61.8% of the Wednesday–Thursday week impulse, and set a higher low. Price has since recovered above the ema20 (~157.94) and sits just under the 158.26 ny high, with RSI(14) back near 58 and ATR(14) around 31 pips.
Support: 157.94, 157.41, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot ex-fresh-food print vs 2.4% threatens the 157.41 fib 50%
H1 close above the 158.45 week high extends the breakout; repeated rejection there keeps a cap in place
Loss of the 157.22 ny low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the post-breakout structure
Holding above the ema20 near 157.94 keeps the recovery from the NY dip intact
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next event risk for USD legs
Higher lows from Wednesday's 156.38 low; Thursday broke the Mon–Wed range, capped at 158.45.
Thursday's Asia-session breakout cleared the Mon–Wed 156.38–157.85 range after the BoJ Summary of Opinions trimmed October hike bets, carrying price to a 158.45 week high just under the 200-DMA before intervention concerns triggered a rejection. The ISM-hour flush during NY hours held the weekly open at 157.22, near the 61.8% level of the week's impulse, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 157.95 with RSI(14) back around 59. Higher lows since Wednesday keep the rising trendline intact, with the NY high at 158.26 the nearer cap.
Support: 157.87, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.4%) could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the london low at 157.87 back in focus
H1 close below the london low at 157.87 and EMA(20) would leave the 158.45 week high as a lower-high cap
Failure to hold the weekly open at 157.22 breaks the rising trendline and the 61.8% of the week's impulse, exposing the week low at 156.38
H1 close above the week high at 158.45 opens the 159.00 round number, where intervention headline risk rises
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled test of the Thursday breakout
From Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 156.38, USDJPY has printed higher lows. The week rally accelerated in Thursday's Tokyo session as the yen sold off on the BoJ Summary of Opinions and soft Tankan, and stalled at the 158.45 week high, which was tested three times into London. A sharp NY-hours drop on intervention fears tagged the 157.22 weekly open, near the 61.8% retracement of the week rally, before price recovered above EMA(20) at 157.95. The rebound so far has stopped at a 158.26 lower high, with RSI(14) back near 54.
Support: 157.95, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.45 week high would clear the triple-tested cap and put the 159.00 round number in play
A break back under the 158.26 lower high is needed before the cap is retested; holding below it keeps the rejection read active
Loss of EMA(20) near 157.95 returns focus to the weekly open at 157.22
Failure to hold 157.22 breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 156.38 week low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed speakers tonight add risk
19:02 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday, capped at week high · RSI 53 · price 158.085
Range break above Monday high, higher lows held after deep retest.
After a Monday–Wednesday range of 156.38–157.85, Thursday's Asia session broke above the Monday high on the dovish-leaning BoJ Summary of Opinions. London then tagged the 158.45 week high twice, at the 200-DMA zone, before intervention concerns brought rejection. The NY ISM hour flushed to the 157.22 ISM low, near the 61.8% of the Wed-Thu leg, and has since recovered back above EMA(20). The higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low is intact, though the 158.26 lower high sits just overhead with RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 157.86, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.26 lower high reopens the 158.45 week high, where intervention rhetoric has capped twice
H1 close back below 157.86 Monday high returns price to the prior range and weakens the breakout read
Break of the 157.22 ISM low and higher-low trendline invalidates the Wed-Thu leg structure
Fed speakers (Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could shift this read overnight
Friday NFP at 12:30 UTC is the key event risk for a test of either end of the 157.22–158.45 band
Higher lows from 156.38; post-breakout chop under 158.45.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Wednesday's Asia-session week low at 156.38. It cleared Monday's high at 157.85 during Thursday's Asia session on the Tankan miss and firm US yields, then met rejection at the 158.45 week high. The first-hour-of-NY flush to 157.22 on renewed intervention fears tagged the weekly open and the 61.8% level of the week impulse fib, and price has since recovered to sit just above EMA(20) near 158.00 with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 158.00, 157.85, 157.22
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.45 week high opens the path toward the 159.00 round number, where MoF intervention rhetoric has been concentrated
Failure back below the 157.85 Monday high and the higher-low trendline exposes the weekly open at 157.22
Hourly closes back under EMA(20) near 158.00 would leave the pair ranging inside Thursday's 157.22–158.45 band
Fed's Bowman and Williams/Cook (19:00–19:30 UTC) and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with NFP due Fri 12:30 UTC
Any Japanese verbal or actual intervention would override the higher-low structure
17:02 UTC
Rebound from week low, pulling back off highs · RSI 47 · price 157.777
Higher lows since Wednesday; retracing Thursday's range break.
USD/JPY spent Monday to Wednesday ranging between the 156.38 week low and the 157.70–157.85 highs. It broke higher through Thursday's Asia and London sessions as US yields lifted DXY, reaching a 158.45 week high near the 200-DMA. Supply capped that area on renewed intervention risk. The NY-session ISM bar wicked down to 157.22, matching the weekly open and sitting near the 61.8% retracement, before recovering. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at 157.87 and above the tue high at 157.71, with RSI(14) back to the high 40s.
Support: 157.71, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.87, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.22 weekly open breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence from the 156.38 week low
Close back above EMA(20) and the 158.13 lower high reopens the 158.45 week high and 200-DMA area
Failure to hold the tue high at 157.71 returns price to the Monday–Wednesday range
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could shift US yields and this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC carry two-way risk; MoF rhetoric near 158.45 also a factor
16:03 UTC
Wed–Thu uptrend leg, now in a deep pullback · RSI 43 · price 157.584
False break above Monday high; back inside the 156.38–157.85 weekly range.
The rally off Wednesday's 156.38 week low broke above the 157.85 Monday high in Thursday's Asia session and reached a 158.45 week high in London, but the second push printed a bearish RSI divergence. NY hours have unwound most of the leg. The ISM release bar spiked to 157.22, at the week open and near the 61.8% retrace of the Wed–Thu impulse fib, before recovering, leaving price at 157.58 below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with EMA(20) now sitting on the Monday high.
Support: 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 157.85, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 157.85 (Monday high / EMA20) would revive the breakout read toward the 158.45 week high
Failure at the 157.22 week open and the rising support from Wednesday's low exposes the 156.38 week low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7.5h) and Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP Friday 12:30 UTC is the next high-impact test of the range
15:02 UTC
Range breakout, now pulling back · RSI 45 · price 157.761
Mon–Wed range broken Thursday; lower highs since 158.45.
USD/JPY ranged 156.38–157.85 from Monday to Wednesday. The week low printed in Wednesday's Asia session, and the post-PCE dip held a higher low near 156.65. Thursday's Asia session broke the range on surging US yields and the Tankan misses, setting a week high at 158.45 before London carved out lower highs. The ISM-hour flush to the weekly open at 157.22, near the 61.8% retracement of the week's impulse, was bought back to 157.76, leaving price under the EMA(20) near 157.89 with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-40s.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.38
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 158.05 lower highs line reopens the 158.45 week high
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open and 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 157 handle at 156.98
A break below the 156.38 week low would negate Thursday's range breakout
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) could reprice December hike odds
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and Friday NFP are event risk for this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back to EMA20 · RSI 55 · price 158.028
Breakout above Mon–Wed range, higher lows since Wednesday.
Monday to Wednesday held a 156.40–157.85 range. The dip to 156.38 in Wednesday's Asia session and the PCE-driven slide to 156.65 both drew demand, forming the base of the week's impulse. Thursday's Asia session then drove the breakout as Tankan misses, a cautious BoJ Summary of Opinions and firm US yields weighed on JPY, and the week high printed at 158.45 in early London. Price has since eased through the London-NY transition. It is now retesting Monday's range top around the 157.87 pullback low, where EMA(20) at ~157.92 is holding, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 157.87, 157.66, 157.22
Resistance: 158.24, 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.87 pullback low and EMA(20) exposes the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse at 157.66, near EMA(50)
A close above the 158.24 lower high from the pullback puts the 158.45 week high back in play, with the 159.00 round number beyond
ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with more Fed speakers through 19:30 UTC
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC: a hot core print near 2.6% or higher could reverse the breakout toward the 157.22 weekly open
A break of the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's PCE low would undo the higher-low sequence
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after range break · RSI 59 · price 158.032
Mon–Wed range broken higher in Asia; pullback retesting range top.
Monday to Wednesday held a 156.40–157.85 range. The Wednesday Asia low at 156.38 and the PCE-driven dip to 156.65 were both absorbed, and the pair climbed back to Wednesday's NY high near 157.54. The Tankan miss and record long-end US yields drove an Asia-session range break on Thursday, but supply capped three tests of the 158.45 week high. The London pullback to 157.87 held just above the old range top and EMA(20), near the 23.6% of the week rally fib, and RSI(14) eased to ~59 from the mid-60s.
Support: 157.85, 157.54, 157.22
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 range top would make Thursday's break a false break and expose Wednesday's NY high at 157.54
Loss of rising support from Wednesday's PCE low puts the 38.2% of the week rally near 157.66 in view, then the weekly open at 157.22
A clean break of the 158.45 week high opens the 159.00 round number
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next yen catalyst; a hot print would test the range top retest
12:03 UTC
Range break higher, now pulling back · RSI 57 · price 157.918
Breakout from 156.40–157.85 range, retesting range top.
USD/JPY held a 156.40–157.85 range from Monday to Wednesday. Soft US PCE yesterday dipped the pair to 156.65 without retesting the 156.38 week low, and the rally from the PCE low recovered to the weekly open at 157.22 and above by the NY close. The range break came in today's Asia session after the Tankan miss and a BoJ read cool on October, carrying price to a 158.45 week high. London has since faded the move back to the range top at 157.85, where price sits on EMA(20) near 157.91 with RSI(14) easing to about 57.
Support: 157.85, 157.22, 156.38
Resistance: 158.00, 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 157.85 range top would turn the breakout into a false break and put the weekly open at 157.22 in view
Failure under 157.22 exposes the 156.38 week low, below the 50% retrace of the rally from the PCE low near 157.55
Reclaiming 158.00 psych and clearing the 158.45 week high reopens the 159.00 month high, where MoF intervention risk rises
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Uptrend after range break, momentum cooling · RSI 64 · price 158.108
Mon–Wed 156.38–157.85 range broken higher Thursday; pulling back from 158.45 week high.
USD/JPY held a 156.38–157.85 range from the weekly open (157.22) through Wednesday. The dip on the soft PCE print stalled above Wednesday's Asia-session week low, and NY hours recovered to 157.40. The Asia session today drove the range break through the range top, with the move carried by firm US yields and fading October BoJ hike pricing after the Tankan miss. The week high at 158.45 printed at the London open, and price has since eased to 158.10 with RSI(14) off 70. Repeated pullback low holds near 158.07 sit just above the rising EMA20 at 157.92, close to the 23.6% retracement of the week's 156.38–158.45 impulse.
Support: 158.07, 157.92, 157.85
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 range top would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the 158.07 pullback low exposes the ema20 near 157.92 and the 23.6% fib
Acceptance above the 158.45 week high opens the 159.00 psych area, where intervention risk is flagged
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk to the breakout structure
Breakout above Mon–Wed range, higher lows since Wednesday.
USD/JPY ranged 156.38–157.85 around the 157.22 weekly open from Monday to Wednesday. The overnight Tankan misses and high US yields then drove a breakout through the range top during the Asia session, extending to a 158.45 week high. Since then price has held a tight consolidation above the 158.10 consol low with RSI(14) near 75 (overbought) and a slightly lower RSI peak on the latest push, while EMA(20) trails near 157.93 alongside the range top and the 23.6% level of the week impulse fib.
Support: 158.10, 157.85, 157.22
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.10 consol low opens a retest of the 157.85 range top and EMA(20)
Break above the 158.45 week high exposes 159.00, the intervention fear zone
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC; an upside surprise vs the 2.4% forecast would test the higher lows trendline from Wednesday
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open would undo this week's breakout structure
09:03 UTC
Uptrend after range break, stretched · RSI 72 · price 158.363
Mon–Wed 156.40–157.85 range broken in Asia today; higher lows since Wed.
From Monday to Wednesday the pair rotated in a 156.40–157.85 range beneath a lower-highs line, and Wednesday's NY-session dip on the soft PCE print held above the week low. Asia broke the range today as US yields stayed elevated and the across-the-board Tankan misses weighed on the yen. London then extended to a week high at 158.45, while the pullback low at 158.10 held. Price sits roughly 50 pips above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 72, stretched after the break; the monday high at 157.85 and the 50% fib of the week impulse at 157.41 are the deeper references.
Support: 158.10, 157.85, 157.41
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.10 pullback low and 158.00 puts the range break at risk of a false break
Second stall at the 158.45 week high, after 158.40 earlier, would leave a flat top beneath that level
Close above 158.45 opens the path to the 159.00 round number, where intervention rhetoric is a known brake
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC; an upside surprise could pull price back toward the monday high and the 50% fib
Range break above 157.85 range top; higher lows since Wednesday's 156.38 low.
USDJPY spent Monday to Wednesday rotating between 156.40 and a range top near 157.85, with a dip to the 156.38 week low on the soft US PCE quickly reversed as strong growth data and firm US yields took over. The pair broke above 158.00 in the Asia session after the Tankan misses and extended to a 158.45 week high into London. The 158.10 pullback low held on the first dip. RSI(14) is in the mid-70s and price sits roughly 55 pips above EMA(20) near 157.82, so the move is extended relative to its average.
Support: 158.10, 157.85
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 range top, near EMA(20), would return price to the prior week range
Failure to hold the 158.10 pullback low would expose the range top
Clearance of the 158.45 week high puts the 159.00 round number in focus, where intervention risk lingers
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is a yen-side risk to the breakout
A break of the higher lows trendline from Wednesday's low would undercut the uptrend read
A pullback to the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Thu impulse near 157.66 would put the move back inside the old range
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, fresh range break · RSI 69 · price 158.152
Mon–Wed 156.40–157.85 range broken higher in Thursday Asia; higher low at 156.65.
From Monday's weekly open at 157.22 to Wednesday the pair held a 156.40–157.85 range. Wednesday's Asia slide set the week low at 156.375, and the soft core PCE dip to 156.65 was bought, leaving a higher low. In Thursday's Asia session, elevated US yields and across-the-board Tankan misses carried price through the 158.00 prior cap, above Friday's high at 158.29 and into a 158.40 week high. The 06:00 UTC bar pulled back to 158.10 but is holding above the prior cap, with the rising lows line underneath and price riding well clear of EMA(20) near 157.75.
Support: 158.00, 157.75, 157.22
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 158.00 prior cap turns the range break into a false break
Acceptance above 158.40 week high exposes the 159.00 round number, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior moves
Break of the rising lows line (~158.05) puts EMA(20) at 157.75 and the 61.8% retrace near 157.15, just under the weekly open, back in play
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC: an upside surprise is the main yen-positive risk to the breakout
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range break · RSI 77 · price 158.349
Mon–Wed range 156.38–157.85 broken higher in Asia; higher lows since PCE.
USD/JPY spent Monday to Wednesday boxed between the 156.38 week low and the 157.85 range top. The soft US PCE dip during NY hours held above 156.65, and strong US activity data lifted price along a rising support line off that higher low. Today's Asia session broke the range top and cleared Friday's 158.29 prior high to a 158.40 week high on firm Treasury yields and the Tankan misses, with the 158.06 pullback low the only shelf so far and RSI(14) near 77 overbought, well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 158.29, 158.06, 157.85
Resistance: 158.40, 159.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags 158.00–158.28 as intervention-sensitive
H1 close back below the 158.29 prior high and the 158.06 pullback low turns the move into a false break
Loss of the 157.85 range top, near the 38.2% week range fib at 157.63, returns price to the Mon–Wed range
Clearance of the 158.40 week high exposes the 159.00 round number
A break of the rising support from the PCE low would end the higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk to the breakout
Higher lows off Wednesday's 156.38 low; Monday's 157.85 range top cleared in Asia.
USD/JPY held a 156.38–157.85 range for most of the week after Monday's 157.22 open, and Wednesday's post-PCE dip toward 156.65 during NY hours was fully reversed. The range top gave way in today's Asia session as oil-driven US yields and the broad Tankan miss lifted the pair through 158.00 psych to a week high at 158.30. Price now sits well above EMA(20) near 157.64, with RSI(14) overbought near 79 and the move pressing the 158.28 cap flagged for intervention risk.
Support: 158.00, 157.85, 157.64
Resistance: 158.30, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 157.85 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Hold of 158.00 psych on pullbacks keeps the range break intact; a clear break of the 158.30 week high exposes the 159.00 round number
38.2% of the Wed–Thu impulse sits at 157.56, just below EMA(20); a loss of the higher-lows line near 157.10 would undercut the structure
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
MoF verbal intervention risk above 158.28, with Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC as the next JPY catalyst
04:02 UTC
Uptrend from week low, stretched after breakout · RSI 77 · price 158.135
Week range broken to upside; higher low post-PCE, lower-high line cleared.
After Wednesday's PCE dip printed a higher low above the 156.375 week low, USDJPY broke the lower-high line and the 157.85 range top in today's Asia session, as the soft Tankan and firm US yields carried it through 158.00 to a week high at 158.218. Price now sits well clear of EMA(20) near 157.57, with RSI(14) overbought around 77. Supply is capping the 158.22–158.28 break level zone, where intervention risk is flagged, and Friday's prior high at 158.42 is the next reference above.
Support: 157.854, 157.57, 157.00
Resistance: 158.218, 158.28, 158.423
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 range top would turn today's breakout into a false break and put the ema20 at 157.57 in focus
Clearance of the 158.28 break level and the 158.42 prior high extends the rally from the week low; MoF rhetoric risk rises toward 159
Loss of the higher lows trendline and the 157.00 round number reopens the full week range
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC: a beat above ~2.6% would test the breakout from the week range
03:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 74 · price 158.101
Range break above 157.85 after higher lows from 156.38.
Wednesday's PCE-driven dip to 156.38 was fully bought, with higher lows into the NY session. The Tankan miss in this morning's Asia session added a 65-pip impulse that cleared the 157.85 Monday high, capping the week's 156.38–157.85 range. Price now sits at the 158.22 week high, inside the 158.22–158.28 intervention-sensitive zone, with RSI(14) overbought near 74 and well clear of EMA(20) around 157.50.
Support: 157.85, 157.50, 157.22
Resistance: 158.22, 158.46
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 Monday high would mark the range break as a false break
Pullbacks into the 157.50 EMA(20)/38.2% confluence of the Wed–Thu impulse test whether the higher lows hold
Sustained trade above 158.28 exposes the 158.46 Friday high; MoF/BoJ verbal intervention could materially shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, are the next catalysts
Failure back through the 157.22 weekly open returns price to the lower half of the week's range
Higher lows since Wednesday's 156.38 week low; 156.38–157.85 range top cleared in Asia session.
USDJPY spent Monday to Wednesday boxed between the 156.38 week low and the 157.85 range top, with the soft PCE dip to 156.65 bought back through NY hours. The Asia session extended that recovery after the across-the-board Tankan misses, clearing the range top and printing a 158.21 session high. RSI(14) is overbought and price sits well above EMA(20) near 157.45, just under the 158.28 intervention-sensitive zone and Friday's 158.47 high.
Support: 157.85, 157.45
Resistance: 158.21, 158.28, 158.47
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 range top would mark the move as a false break inside the weekly range
Acceptance above 158.28 intervention zone exposes Friday's 158.47 high; MoF/BoJ rhetoric is the cap risk there
Pullback holding the ema20 near 157.45 keeps the higher-low sequence intact; loss of the 157 strike reopens the range
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Mon–Wed 156.38–157.85 range resolved higher; higher lows since Wednesday.
After Friday's slide from the 158.60 friday high, USDJPY spent Monday to Wednesday inside a 156.38–157.85 range. Wednesday's Asia low at 156.38 and the post-PCE dip to 156.65 in NY formed higher lows, and the soft core PCE miss failed to extend the decline. The NY recovery, then across-the-board Tankan misses in the Asia session, lifted the pair through the 157.85 monday high to 157.93. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 71, just under the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.85, 157.44, 157.22
Resistance: 158.00, 158.29, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 157.85 monday high would mark a false break back into the range
158.00 round number, then the 158.29 prior high: intervention warnings have capped this zone, so watch for rejection or break
Loss of the 157.44 38.2% fib of the post-PCE rally, then the 157.22 weekly open, would unwind most of the Tankan-driven leg
Break of the higher-lows line from 156.38 reopens the 156.38 week low
US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read