USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since NY recovery · RSI 32 · price 157.86
Lower-high sequence below falling trendline; evening 158.00–158.15 range broken lower.
USD/JPY slipped through the 158.00 round number on the Tokyo CPI release bar early in the Asia session, printing a 157.83 session low and extending the lower-high chain off the 158.26 swing high along a falling trendline. Price sits at the 38.2% fib of the 157.22–158.26 rebound. The fib 61.8 level near 157.62 coincides with the late-NY swing low, while the double top at 158.45 capped the day before the NY flush to the 157.22 ny low.
Support: 157.83, 157.62, 157.22
Resistance: 158.00, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the falling trendline negates the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 157.83 session low exposes the fib 61.8 near 157.62, then the 157.22 ny low
Tokyo CPI actuals vs 2.4% f/c are not yet in the feed and could add a further leg
A reclaim of the 158.26 swing high reopens the 158.45 double top, an intervention-sensitive area
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 158.26 swing high, testing 157.87 shelf.
After the day high at 158.45 capped near the 200-DMA on intervention fears, the NY sell-off to the 157.22 spike low partially recovered to the 158.26 swing high. Quiet post-NY trade has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline, and price is now retesting the 157.87 shelf (38.2% fib) with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 157.87, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.11, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex Fresh Food f/c 2.4%) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.87 shelf exposes the 157.61 swing low near the 61.8% fib, then the 157.22 spike low
Close back above the 158.11 late high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 158.26 swing high back in play
Reaction at the 158.45 day high and 200-DMA cluster remains the intervention-sensitive cap
23:01 UTC
Range, flat after NY V-recovery · RSI 46 · price 158.026
NY flush to 157.22 fully reclaimed; compressing in 158.00–158.15 band into Asia open.
A NY-session flush below the london low to 157.22 on renewed intervention nerves was fully retraced to the ny high at 158.26. Price has since compressed into a tight 158.00–158.15 band as the Asia session opens. The 158.00 round number, near the 23.6% level of the NY recovery fib, is holding; the minor high at 158.15 and the day high at 158.45 sit above.
Support: 158.00, 157.87, 157.61
Resistance: 158.15, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.4%) could break the 158.00–158.15 band in either direction
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes the london low at 157.87, the 38.2% of the NY recovery fib
Failure to hold 157.87 opens the swing low at 157.61, the 61.8% retracement
M15 close above the 158.15 minor high reopens the ny high at 158.26; the day high at 158.45 is the intervention-risk cluster
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major risk for this read
22:46 UTC
Flat after V-shaped NY recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 158.05
Tight 158.00–158.15 range under lower highs from 158.26.
USDJPY reclaimed all of the 14:30 UTC spike to 157.22, a false break of the Asian range low, and stalled at the 158.26 rebound high. Late NY and the rollover have compressed into a 158.00–158.15 band under lower highs, with the 158.45 day high sitting at the intervention-flagged 158.44–158.49 cap. RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 8 pips reflect a thin early-Asia tape ahead of Tokyo CPI.
Support: 158.00, 157.87
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex Fresh Food forecast 2.4%) could materially shift this read; a print at or above 2.6% puts the 158.00 round number and 157.87 swing low in play
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 158.26 rebound high reopens the 158.45 day high
Failure to hold 158.00 breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 157.87 swing low
Reaction at the 158.44–158.49 day high cluster, given intervention risk, ahead of Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP
22:31 UTC
Recovered from NY flush, now flat · RSI 53 · price 158.092
Tight 158.00–158.15 post-NY consolidation below 158.26 NY high.
The NY session flush to the 157.22 NY low on intervention fears was fully bought back, and price now drifts between 158.00 and 158.15 after the close, capped by the 158.26 NY high. It holds the 157.99 late NY low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 158.45 double top. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is compressed to about 9 pips ahead of Tokyo CPI.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot ex-fresh-food print is the main yen-positive risk to the consolidation
An M15 close below the 157.99 late NY low (61.8% fib) breaks the consolidation and exposes the 157.61 swing low, then the 157.22 NY low
An M15 close above the 158.26 NY high reopens the 158.45 double top, the intervention-sensitive cap
22:16 UTC
Sideways, recovered from NY low, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 158.10
Tight consolidation 158.00–158.15 below NY high, inside 157.22–158.45 day range.
The Asia-London rally from 157.39 stalled at the 158.45 session high, which saw three rejections, consistent with the intervention-cap zone in the digest. The NY flush to the 157.22 day low was bought back to a 158.26 NY high via a higher swing low at 157.61, and price has since compressed into an ~15-pip band just above the 158.00 round number in post-NY trade, holding roughly the 78.6% fib retrace with ATR near 7–8 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; ex Fresh Food above 2.4% f/c threatens the 158.00 round number
M15 close below 158.00 breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 157.61 swing low and rising support
Close above the 158.26 NY high reopens a test of the 158.45 session high and intervention-cap zone
Loss of the 157.61 swing low breaks the rising support from the day low
22:02 UTC
Recovering from NY spike low, momentum fading · RSI 57 · price 158.059
Tight 157.99–158.26 consolidation after V-recovery from the 157.22 spike, below the 158.45 double top.
Yen selling after the BoJ Summary of Opinions carried the pair to a 158.45 double top through the London open. Intervention jitters then drove a NY spike to 157.22. The spike recovery stalled at the 158.26 NY high, and price is compressing above the 157.99 late NY low into the Asia session, RSI(14) at 57 and ATR near 11 pips.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.4%) could break the current consolidation in either direction
M15 close below the 157.99 late NY low exposes the 157.61 higher low
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high brings the 158.45 double top back into play, with intervention headlines a risk near that area
Loss of the 157.61 higher low would put the 157.22 spike low back in view
21:47 UTC
Flat after V-shaped NY rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 158.059
Lower highs coiling into a 157.99–158.15 range after the post-NY close.
The post-BoJ Summary of Opinions yen sell-off drove an Asia-session rally that met repeated rejection at the 158.45 london high, close to the intervention-sensitive 158.44 area. NY then flushed to a 157.22 spike low on intervention jitters before a V-shaped rebound to the 158.26 rebound high. Since the NY close, price has coiled between the 157.99 late-NY low and the 158.15 range top under a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR at about 11 pips.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.15, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~1h45m) could break the 157.99–158.15 range top/low compression
An M15 close above the 158.26 rebound high reopens the 158.45 london high, where intervention risk caps
Failure to hold the 157.99 late-NY low exposes the 157.61 swing low, the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib
A break of the lower-highs line from 158.26 shifts the coil to range break higher
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC sits beyond this window but keeps two-way risk elevated
21:31 UTC
Recovered from NY spike low, now flat · RSI 45 · price 158.059
Higher lows off 157.22, compressing below 158.26 rebound high.
The NY-session spike to 157.22 on intervention nerves was fully retraced to the 158.26 rebound high, leaving a higher-low chain at 157.38 and 157.61. Price is now compressing between the 157.99 late-NY low and 158.26 in thin post-NY trade, still below the 158.45 session high that capped London. Price sits near the 23.6% retracement of the 157.22–158.26 leg.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the 157.99–158.26 compression either way
M15 close below the 157.99 late-ny low opens the 38.2% fib near 157.86 and the 157.61 higher low
Close above the 158.26 rebound high puts the 158.45 session high and intervention cap back in focus
Break of the higher-lows trendline from 157.38 would undo the rebound structure; the 157.22 spike low is the next marker
21:16 UTC
Recovered from NY sell-off, now flat · RSI 52 · price 158.081
Tight 158.00–158.26 band under the rebound high, higher lows off 157.22.
NY hours saw a 90-pip flush to the 157.22 day low as intervention nerves resurfaced. The pair then fully reclaimed it to a 158.26 rebound high, and the 158.45 day high from London still caps. Post-NY trade is drifting in a thin 158.00–158.26 band above the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.4%) can break the late-session band either way
M15 close above the 158.26 rebound high reopens the 158.45 day high and intervention-sensitive cap
Loss of the 157.99 late ny low and the 23.6% fib exposes the 157.61 swing low and the rising lows line
Break below the 157.22 day low would erase the NY recovery
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility event
21:02 UTC
Recovered from NY flush, now flat · RSI 56 · price 158.079
V-shaped reclaim of the 157.22 NY low, compressing in a 158.00–158.26 range.
London capped at the 158.45 london high, and the pair slid into the NY session. Price then flushed to the 157.22 ny low around the ISM release on intervention nerves, but that false break below the Asian range was fully reclaimed along a line of NY higher lows. Late-NY trade is compressing between the 158.00 psych level and the 158.26 rebound high. RSI is neutral and ATR has contracted to about 13 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, about 2.5h away, could break the 158.00–158.26 range in either direction
M15 close back below 158.00 psych exposes the 157.61 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the NY rebound
Close above the 158.26 rebound high reopens the 158.45 london high, where intervention risk has capped price
Loss of the NY higher lows trendline would put the 157.22 ny low back in focus
20:47 UTC
Neutral drift after NY rebound faded · RSI 47 · price 158.022
Lower highs from 158.45 London high; V-recovery from 157.22 stalling below 158.26.
London capped USDJPY at the 158.45 high twice. Intervention nerves then drove a flush to 157.22 just after the 14:00 UTC ISM release. NY recovered to 158.26 but has since faded into a tight late-session drift, pinned to the 158.00 round number and flat EMAs at the 23.6% level of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 158.00, 157.87, 157.61
Resistance: 158.15, 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.87 range floor, which aligns with the 38.2% rebound fib
Loss of 157.87 opens the 157.61 ny pivot low
A break of the 158.15 minor high and the 158.26 NY high would test the lower-highs trendline toward the 158.45 London high
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (under 3h) and any MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
Double top at 158.45, NY flush and rebound to a lower high, compressing above 158.00.
The Asia rally stalled in a London double top at 158.45, just under the 200-DMA zone flagged for intervention risk. A sharp NY-session flush to 157.22 on intervention nerves rebounded into a lower high at the 158.26 NY high, with the move now retracing in a tight late-NY consolidation just above the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.00, 157.87, 157.61
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~3h) could break the 158.00–158.26 compression either way
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high puts the 158.45 double top and the lower-highs line back in play
Failure at the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.87 pre-NY low, then the 157.61 pullback low near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib
Any MoF/official FX rhetoric near 158.45 could repeat the NY-session flush
20:16 UTC
Recovered from NY flush, now flat · RSI 57 · price 158.074
Consolidating 157.99–158.26 after reclaiming the 157.22 spike low.
Asia lifted USDJPY to the 158.45 session high on the soft-yen BoJ and Tankan read, where supply capped price through London. A NY-session flush to 157.22 on intervention nerves proved a false break below the 157.87 floor. The NY rebound peaked at the 158.26 NY high, and price is now consolidating just above the 157.99 pullback low with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 157.99, 157.61
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high reopens the 158.45 session high, the area where intervention risk capped price
Failure to hold the 157.99 pullback low exposes the 157.61 base low, which sits on the 61.8% level of the ny rebound fib
20:02 UTC
Recovering off NY flush, higher lows intact · RSI 56 · price 158.126
HL chain off 157.22, capped below 158.26 NY high.
The Asia rally from 157.32 met rejection at the 158.45 day high after London open. The NY-hours flush to the 157.22 spike low on intervention fears has been mostly retraced, with a higher low at 157.61 and a pullback low at 157.99 holding the 61.8% fib. Price sits just under the 158.26 NY high and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 157.99, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high reopens the 158.45 day high, where supply capped London
Failure to hold the 157.99 pullback low and 61.8% fib exposes the 157.61 higher low and rising trendline
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; NFP follows Friday 12:30 UTC
Any MoF verbal intervention risks a revisit of the 157.22 spike low
Lower high under 158.45 double top, higher low at 157.61.
London's double top at 158.45, the intervention-sensitive zone, led to an NY-hours flush to 157.22 on renewed intervention fears. A higher low at 157.61 then lifted price back through the 157.87 range low to a 158.26 rebound high. That high is now fading in late NY, with RSI(14) near 52 and price sitting on EMA50 around 158.00.
Support: 157.87, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.87 range low (38.2% of the rebound fib) reopens the 157.61 higher low
Loss of 157.61 (61.8% rebound fib) breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.22 flush low
Break above the 158.26 rebound high puts the 158.45 double top back in play
Fed's Williams and Cook speaking now, and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~4h), could materially shift this read
NY-low rebound capped by a lower high at 158.26 under the 158.45 day high.
USDJPY flushed about 120 pips from the 158.45 day high to a 157.22 NY low on intervention fears, then retraced the whole move into a 158.26 recovery high. That high sits below the day high, and late-NY trade is drifting back toward the 157.95 pivot, with the recovery trendline from the 157.38 and 157.61 swing lows still intact underneath.
Support: 157.95, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Close back below the 157.95 pivot breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 157.61 swing low
Clearance of the 158.26 recovery high reopens the 158.45 day high, the level where intervention fears capped price earlier
Loss of the 157.61 swing low reopens the 157.22 NY low and the full fib retracement
Fed's Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.4%) could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery inside a 158.45–157.22 day range · RSI 62 · price 158.087
Higher lows since the 157.22 day low, pausing under the 158.26 NY high.
Intervention fears around the 14:00 UTC ISM release drove a 90-pip flush to the 157.22 day low. NY then retraced the whole drop along a rising trendline of higher lows, reclaiming 158.00 and stalling at the 158.26 NY high. Two London rejections at the 158.45 session high, the 158.44–158.49 intervention zone, still cap the range.
Support: 157.87, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Fed speakers Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Close above the 158.26 NY high reopens a test of the 158.45 session high
Loss of the 157.87 london low and the ny rising trendline exposes the 157.61 swing low
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, about 4.5h away, is the next yen swing factor; a break of the 157.22 day low resets the day's structure
Holding the 50% level of the ny recovery fib, near 157.74, keeps the higher-low sequence intact
18:46 UTC
V-shaped NY rebound, stalling below session high · RSI 63 · price 158.093
Higher lows off 157.22 flush, capped at 158.26.
The ISM-time spike faded into a flush to 157.22 on intervention nerves. Late NY has since rebuilt through higher lows at 157.38 and 157.61 and reclaimed the 158.00 psych level. The rebound is now showing rejection just under the 158.26 session high, with the 158.45 day high from London open (200-DMA zone) overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.61
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.00 psych exposes the 157.61 higher low and the rising higher-lows line
Close above the 158.26 session high opens a retest of the 158.45 day high, where intervention rhetoric has capped
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) are minutes away and could shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY risk for Asia session
A retrace beyond the 50% of the NY rebound (~157.74) undoes the recovery structure
V-shaped reclaim of 14:15 UTC flush, higher low at 157.61.
Late NY session: the pair has fully retraced the 14:15 UTC intervention-risk flush to 157.22. Price is back above the 158.06 breakout and the 157.87 midday low, and printed a 158.26 NY high off a 157.61 higher low that sits on the rising lows line and near the recovery fib 61.8%. Supply capped the 158.45 double top twice during London, just under the 158.49 200-DMA flagged in the digest.
Support: 158.06, 157.87, 157.61
Resistance: 158.26, 158.45
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next two bars
M15 close back below the 158.06 breakout reopens the 157.87 midday low and the recovery fib 38.2% near 157.86
Close above the 158.26 NY high exposes the 158.45 double top, where intervention rhetoric risk is concentrated
Loss of the 157.61 higher low breaks the rising lows trendline and negates the recovery structure
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side swing factor
18:16 UTC
Recovering after NY flush, higher lows · RSI 61 · price 158.179
V-shaped rebound from 157.22; higher lows at 157.38, 157.51 and 157.61; 158.00 reclaimed.
USD/JPY has unwound the 14:30 UTC intervention-fear flush to the 157.22 NY low. It carved a higher-low chain and reclaimed the 158.00 round number after London close. Price is pressing the 158.26 late high, near the 78.6% retracement of the drop from the 158.45 session high, with RSI(14) around 61 and ATR(14) near 21 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.611, 157.221
Resistance: 158.258, 158.451
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.00 round number undercuts the reclaim and exposes the 157.61 higher low
A break of the higher-low trendline and 157.61 negates the recovery structure, with the 157.22 NY low next
Acceptance above the 158.26 late high opens the 158.45 session high, which capped London twice and sits in the intervention-risk zone
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC, Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The early-London session high at 158.45 capped price, and intervention fears drove a flush from the ism high at 158.13 to a spike low at 157.22 during NY hours. Rising lows since then, the latest at the 157.61 swing low, have carried price back above the 157.87 range low and the 61.8% of the drop fib in late NY.
Support: 157.87, 157.61, 157.22
Resistance: 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 ism high reopens the 158.45 session high, where intervention rhetoric has capped price
Break of the rising lows line and the 157.61 swing low would turn the recovery into a lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 157.87 range low puts the 157.22 spike low back in view
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read within the hour
Lower high after 158.45 double top, higher lows off 157.22 spike low.
After a London double top at the 158.45 session high, intervention fears flushed USD/JPY to a 157.22 spike low at 14:30 UTC. Price has since retraced to the 50–61.8% fib of that drop, and higher lows at 157.38 and 157.61 hold under the 157.88 rebound high. The pair is consolidating just below EMA20 into late NY hours.
Support: 157.61, 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 rebound high opens the 158.13 pre-drop high, with the 158.45 double top beyond
Failure to hold the 157.61 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 157.38 swing low and 157.22 spike low
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and any MoF intervention language remain event risk for the Asia session
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since session high · RSI 40 · price 157.618
Lower highs from 158.45; post-flush bounce capped at 157.88.
Intervention fears knocked USDJPY from the 158.45 session high to a 157.22 spike low after the 14:00 UTC ISM high at 158.13 faded, despite broad USD strength. The NY rebound stalled at a 157.88 lower high on the falling highs trendline, near the 50% retrace of the selloff, and price is back below the 38.2% level at 157.69 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.13
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.38 swing low exposes the 157.22 spike low and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 157.88 lower high and the falling highs trendline invalidates the descending structure, with the 158.13 ISM high next
Fed speakers (Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC), Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and any MoF rhetoric could materially shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend since the 158.45 high, rebound fading · RSI 44 · price 157.71
Lower highs after 14:30 UTC flush; spike low 157.22, swing low 157.38.
The Asia-London grind topped at the 158.45 session high, and the 14:30 UTC flush to the 157.22 spike low came as intervention fears resurfaced. The NY rebound met rejection at the 157.88 rebound high, near the 50% retrace, and price is back at 157.71 under the lower-highs line and both EMAs.
Support: 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
Close above 157.88 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.13 pre-drop hi
Failure to hold the 157.38 swing low reopens the 157.22 spike low
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, then Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC; a hot print revives BoJ October hike pricing and JPY demand
Any MoF intervention rhetoric on a move back toward the 158.45 session high
Double top at 158.45, NY flush to 157.22, higher lows since.
The Asia rally stalled at a 158.45 double top during London. Price then flushed to a 157.22 spike low in early NY as intervention fears resurfaced and stayed under the pre-drop high at 158.13. The rebound has printed a higher low at 157.51 above the 157.38 swing low, but it is capped at the 157.88 bounce high near the 50% retrace, with price back under EMA20.
Support: 157.51, 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 bounce high and 50% retrace opens 158.13
Loss of the 157.51 higher low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.38 swing low
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could move USD in late NY
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC; a hot print revives JPY demand toward the 157.22 spike low
Double top at 158.45, NY flush to 157.22, higher low at 157.38, retesting broken floor.
The double top at 158.45 near the 200-DMA gave way in NY. A 123-pip flush to 157.22 swept the prior-day low as intervention fears resurfaced, and the lower-low reading now sits in the narrative rather than the levels. Price has since printed a higher low at 157.38 and is retesting the 157.88 prior floor near the 50% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 after London close.
Support: 157.52, 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.88, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.88 prior floor and the 61.8% fib at 157.98 opens the 158.13 ism spike high
Loss of the 157.52 minor low and then the 157.38 higher low exposes the 157.22 flush low
Double top at 158.45 stays the cap unless reclaimed
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30), then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-spike compression: lower highs from 157.92, higher lows from 157.22.
Supply capped the pair four times at the 158.44–158.45 London high. During NY hours, the post-ISM flush broke the 157.87–158.05 range floor and printed a 157.22 spike low, a drop the digest ties to resurfacing intervention fears. The rebound is stalling at the lower high near 157.72, which sits on the 38.2% fib, and price is compressing above the 157.51 higher low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.51, 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.72, 157.92, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.72 lower high and 38.2% fib opens the old range floor at 157.92
Loss of the 157.51 higher low exposes the 157.38 swing low, then the 157.22 spike low
Fed's Jefferson in ~1h, with Bowman and Williams/Cook later in NY hours, could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI in ~7h is a risk event for the Asia session
Reclaiming the London high at 158.45 would negate the rejection read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY flush · RSI 37 · price 157.562
London double top at 158.45, NY breakdown, rebounds capped below descending line.
Asia's rally stalled in a London double top at 158.45 just under the 200-DMA. NY broke the London lows and the flush after the US ISM data tagged the 157.22 spike low; rebounds have printed lower highs at 157.92 and 157.72. Price is now coiling between the 157.38 ny low and 157.72 late in NY, RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.72, 157.92, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.72 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high sequence; 157.92 rebound high (near the fib 61.8%) is next
Failure to hold the 157.38 ny low puts the 157.22 spike low back in play
Reclaim of the 158.13 post-ism hi would neutralise the breakdown read
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC) and Bowman/Williams/Cook later today could shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7h) is the next high-impact JPY risk
London range floor 157.87 broken in NY; flush to 157.22 swept the prior-day low, bounce capped near the fib 38.2.
After a double rejection at 158.45, the NY session broke the 157.87 London floor. A 70-pip flush to 157.22 followed the ISM release, sweeping the prior-day low before a sharp recovery. Bounces have since stalled at the fib 38.2 near 157.69 and the 157.92 lower high, with the 157.38 swing low marking the latest higher low.
Support: 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.69, 157.92, 157.98
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.92 lower high and the falling trendline near 157.98 / fib 61.8 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.38 swing low re-exposes the 157.22 sweep low
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could shift USD yields within the next few bars
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7.5h) is the next JPY catalyst
15:46 UTC
Downtrend after sharp NY flush, bounces sold · RSI 32 · price 157.476
Lower highs from 158.45 London high; spike low 157.22 holding.
The Asian rally peaked at the 158.45 London session high, then unwound in NY. The ism spike to 158.13 was rejected and a 70-pip flush to the 157.22 spike low followed, against the firm USD tone in the digest. The bounce high at 157.92 stalled between the 50% and 61.8% fib, a lower high at 157.75 came next, and price is now holding just above the 157.38 swing low after London close.
Support: 157.38, 157.22
Resistance: 157.75, 157.92, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.38 swing low exposes the 157.22 spike low and yesterday's NY lows near 157.23
Reclaim of the 157.92 bounce high (61.8% fib zone) breaks the lower-high sequence
A break of the 157.75 lower high is the first sign the lower highs line is giving way
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Williams/Cook, could shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7.8h) is the next material JPY catalyst
Lower highs from London high 158.45; NY range break to 157.22.
The Asia rally topped at the 158.45 London high and faded. NY then broke the 157.87–158.05 range with a 14:30 UTC flush to the 157.22 spike low, cutting against the firm-USD backdrop in the digest. The rebound was rejected at 157.92, the old range floor and roughly the 61.8% fib of the drop, and price is now back testing the 157.45 swing low with RSI(14) at 33.
Support: 157.45, 157.22
Resistance: 157.92, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.45 swing low exposes the 157.22 spike low
A reclaim of the 157.92 range floor and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
A move back above the 158.13 NY high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson speaks at 17:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI is due at 23:30 UTC (~8h); either could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.45 session high; 157.87 range floor broken, spike low 157.22.
The Asia rally to the 158.45 session high faded through London and NY. After the 14:00 UTC ISM pop to the 158.13 post-ism hi, the pair broke the 157.87 range floor, and a 14:30 UTC flush printed a 157.22 spike low beneath the Asia rally origin. Price has since rebounded to the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally near 157.75, with the range floor at 157.92 capping the bounce, RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) swollen to about 18 pips.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.92, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.92 range floor, now resistance, would break the lower-high line and neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of the 157.47 spike base reopens the 157.22 spike low
Break of the 158.13 post-ism hi would put the 158.45 session high back in play
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook from 19:00 UTC, could shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.4%) is the main JPY risk at the Asia open
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Asia rally stalled · RSI 41 · price 157.746
Lower highs from 158.45, range break lower, corrective bounce.
The Asia rally was capped three times at the London top of 158.45, just under the 158.49 200-DMA. In NY, price faded the post-ISM spike high at 158.13, broke the 157.87–158.05 range base and flushed 70 pips to 157.22. The bounce has stalled at the 38.2% retrace near 157.69, with price below EMA20/50 and the lower-high line intact; the 157.47 rebound low is the nearest floor.
Support: 157.47, 157.22
Resistance: 157.87, 158.13, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.87 range base (near the 50% retrace) weakens the breakdown read
Loss of the 157.47 rebound low exposes the 157.22 flush low and the 157 handle
A break above the lower-high line and the 158.13 spike high reopens the 158.45 London top
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.45 London top, 157.87 floor broken by a 14:30 UTC flush.
The post-Tankan rally from the 157.33 asia base stalled at the 158.45 session high through London. Lower highs then broke the 157.87 floor in a 70-pip flush at 14:30 UTC, after the ISM high at 158.10, tagging the 157.22 spike low before snapping back to 157.60. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR(14) has widened to about 17 pips on the spike.
Support: 157.33, 157.22, 157.00
Resistance: 157.87, 158.10, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.87 broken floor, near the 61.8% retracement of the 158.45–157.22 drop, would neutralise the flush
Failure to hold the 157.33 asia base and the 157.22 spike low exposes the 157.00 round number
Lower highs trendline from 158.45 caps rebounds unless the ISM high at 158.10 gives way
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook from 17:30 UTC, then Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London double top; NY range 157.86–158.13.
The Asia-session rally after the Tankan misses ran from 157.33 to a 158.45 double top in early London. A late-London breakdown from 158.24 left NY ranging 157.86–158.13, sitting on the 50% retrace of that rally. The ISM spike to 158.13 was rejected inside a bar on the headline miss; RSI(14) near 39 with price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.86, 157.75
Resistance: 158.13, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.86 NY low exposes the 61.8% retrace near the 157.75 asia break area
Recovery above the 158.13 ism spike high and the 158.24 breakdown level breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 158.45 double top back in play
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Pullback from London highs, bouncing off base · RSI 49 · price 158.108
Double top at 158.45 broke to a 157.87 base; mid-range rebound in NY.
London capped USDJPY twice at 158.45, just under the 158.49 200-DMA, forming a double top. That top gave way late London and sent price through the asian low to a 157.87 ny base, which held three times. The ISM bar, with hot prices paid outweighing the headline miss, lifted price back to 158.11, the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with the 158.22 breakdown and 61.8% zone overhead.
Support: 158.06, 157.87
Resistance: 158.22, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 breakdown / 61.8% zone reopens the 158.45 double top
Failure to hold back above the 158.06 asian low leaves the rebound shallow and in range
A break below the 157.87 ny base confirms a lower-low below the double top
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook from 17:30 UTC could shift the read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is event risk for the Asia session
Double top at 158.45, lower highs, base 157.87–158.05.
Asia lifted USDJPY from 157.32 to 158.40 on the dovish BoJ SoP and soft Tankan. London capped twice at the 158.45 session high, forming a double top. The 11:30 UTC break of the 158.10 neckline set a 158.24 lower high and a base low at 157.87, which sits near the 50% fib of the Asian rally. Price is parked on the 38.2% at 158.02 into the ISM print, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.87, 157.75
Resistance: 158.10, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 158.10 neckline and the 158.24 lower high negates the double top
Failure to hold the 157.87 base low (50% fib) exposes the 157.75 asia pivot
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk
13:46 UTC
Pullback from Asia highs, momentum soft · RSI 36 · price 157.95
Double top at 158.45, range break lower, basing 157.87–158.05.
The Asia rally on the soft Tankan and less-hawkish BoJ SoP topped out with a double top at 158.45 in early London, barely above the 158.40 Asian high. The 11:30 UTC range break through 158.06 has stalled at the 157.87 session low, near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) sits near 36, price is under both EMAs, and a minor cap at 158.05 has held every bounce for two hours.
Support: 157.87, 157.75, 157.65
Resistance: 158.05, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 157.87 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.75 and the 157.65 asia pivot
Reclaim of the 158.05 minor cap and the 158.24 break point would neutralise the range break
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk
13:32 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, basing near 158.00 · RSI 44 · price 158.00
Double top at 158.45; neckline broken, now in a 157.87–158.05 range.
The Asia rally on the Tankan misses topped out in a double top at 158.45 during London, just under the 158.49 200-DMA. The 158.20 neckline gave way late in London. Since then price has held a 157.87–158.05 range, with the session low tested three times at the 50% fib of the Asia move as NY opens; RSI(14) sits near 43.
Support: 157.87, 157.75
Resistance: 158.05, 158.20, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC (~30 min) could break the 157.87–158.05 range either way
M15 close below the 157.87 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.75
Reclaiming the 158.20 neckline negates the double top and clears the lower highs; 158.45 then back in play
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk to this read
Double top at 158.45, lower high, basing 157.87–158.05.
London put in a double top at 158.45, just under the 158.49 200-DMA, then broke the 158.06 range floor (now a broken low) after a lower high at 158.24, tagging a 157.87 session low near the 61.8% fib of the 157.55–158.45 Asia rally. Early NY is holding a 157.87–158.05 base after the firm jobless claims print, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 157.87, 157.75, 157.55
Resistance: 158.06, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.87 session low exposes the 157.75 asia pivot and the 157.55 asia low
A reclaim of the 158.06 broken low and then the 158.24 lower high neutralises the double top read
London range 158.10–158.45 broken lower; retest of floor from below.
The Asia-session rally, driven by the Tankan miss and firmer US yields, peaked at the 158.45 session high near London open. The London range broke below its 158.10 range floor late in the session, and price found a session low at 157.87, just above the 50% retracement of the Asia rally. Price is now consolidating near the 38.2% level around 158.02, capped below the broken floor, with RSI(14) near 36 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 157.87, 157.78
Resistance: 158.10, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.10 range floor negates the range-break read; the lower high at 158.24 is next
Failure to hold the 157.87 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.78
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the overnight yen risk
12:46 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 37 · price 158.012
Double top at 158.45, lower highs since.
The yield-driven Asia rally stalled at a London double top near 158.45. Price then broke the 158.06–158.10 broken low area and dipped under 158.00, with lower highs at 158.24. It is now basing just above the 157.87 session low, around the 50% fib of the 157.32–158.45 Asia leg, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 157.873, 157.755
Resistance: 158.10, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.87 session low exposes the fib 61.8 near 157.75
Reclaim of the 158.10 broken low and the 158.24 lower high negates the pullback read; 158.45 double top caps above
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Short-term downtrend off London highs · RSI 36 · price 157.996
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.45 double top; London range floor broken.
The Tokyo rally, driven by the Tankan miss and higher US yields, stalled at a 158.45 double top through London. The 158.06 broken low then gave way, with a 26-pip bar at 11:45 UTC printing a 157.87 session low. Price is holding near 158.00 into the NY open with RSI(14) ~36, and the 158.24 lower high sits at the 61.8% fib of the slide.
Support: 157.87, 157.65, 157.54
Resistance: 158.06, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 158.06 broken low and the lower-high trendline undercuts the breakdown; 158.24 lower high is the next test
Failure to hold the 157.87 session low exposes the 157.65 asia pivot and the 157.54 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Range break lower from 158.10–158.45, lower highs since 158.45.
The 158.45 range top capped four tests through Asia and London. London then broke the 158.06–158.10 range floor at 11:30 UTC to a 157.87 session low, trimming the overnight leg built on the BoJ Summary of Opinions and US yields. Price is pinned at 158.00 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 33 and lower highs at 158.24 marking the line of supply.
Support: 157.87, 157.76, 157.54
Resistance: 158.10, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, in the first hour of NY, could reset this read
An M15 close back above the 158.10 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.87 session low opens the 157.76 38.2% fib and then the 157.54 prior high
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC; a close above the 158.24 lower high would bring the range top back into play
Late-London break below the 158.06–158.45 overnight range, now back under 158.00.
After the session high at 158.451 early in London, the pair spent the morning in a 158.06–158.45 range before late-London selling broke the range floor. The 11:30 UTC bar fell back through the 158.00 round number, inside the 158.00–158.28 intervention-risk cap flagged in the market context, and printed a 157.873 session low. RSI(14) is near 31 and price sits between the 23.6% (158.03) and 38.2% fib (157.76) of the rally that started at yesterday's PCE low.
Support: 157.873, 157.762, 157.55
Resistance: 158.00, 158.057, 158.451
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 158.057 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 157.873 session low exposes the 38.2% fib at 157.76, then the 50% fib near 157.55
A rising trendline from the 157.65 Asia low has already been broken
A reclaim of the 158.451 session high is needed to resume the higher-high chain
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC is the next JPY event risk
11:46 UTC
Intraday downturn after Asia rally, momentum bearish · RSI 33 · price 157.929
Triple top at 158.45, range break below 158.06, lower highs into late London.
London capped USDJPY at 158.45 for a triple top. The 11:30 UTC bar then broke the 158.06 london low and the 158.00 handle, giving back part of the Asian rally that followed the soft BoJ read and the Tankan miss. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that rally, with RSI(14) near 33 and the 157.55 asia open low below.
Support: 157.89, 157.75, 157.55
Resistance: 158.06, 158.24, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.06 london low negates the range break; the 158.24 lower high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 157.89 50% fib exposes the 157.75 swing low near the 61.8% retracement, then the 157.55 asia open
Reclaim of the 158.45 triple top cancels the reversal read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read early in NY
11:31 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled; London rotating lower · RSI 41 · price 158.19
Range 158.06–158.45 after Asia rally, double top at the session high.
The Asia rally from 157.32, helped by the Tankan miss and firm US yields, stalled twice at the 158.45 session high. London has since broken the ~158.20 double-top neckline and printed a london low at 158.06, just above the 38.2% asia rally fib near 158.02. Price is back under the ema20 at 158.25. RSI(14) is around 41 and ATR is about 11 pips.
Support: 158.06, 158.00
Resistance: 158.25, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number and the 158.02 asia rally fib extends the London pullback
Reclaim of the ema20 at 158.25 returns price to mid-range; a close above the 158.45 session high voids the double top
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read in early NY
158.00–158.28 is flagged as a post-intervention ceiling, so any official MoF rhetoric could jolt the range
London range 158.20–158.45 broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain since 09:45 UTC.
The Asia rally from 157.32 ran on high US yields and the Tankan miss, then stalled. London was rejected twice at the 158.45 london high, and the 158.20–158.45 range has since broken lower, with a 158.24 lower high and a 158.06 session low. Price sits inside the 158.00–158.28 post-intervention ceiling zone, RSI(14) near 39, below EMA20 and holding EMA50.
Support: 158.057, 158.00
Resistance: 158.241, 158.451
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.24 lower high negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 158.06 session low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% fib near 158.02
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in the NY session
Retake of the 158.45 london high reopens the Asia uptrend leg
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 38 · price 158.104
London triple top at 158.45, 158.20 range low broken.
Firm US yields drove the Asia leg from 157.32 to the 158.45 session high. London capped at that high four times and has since slipped below the 158.20 range low, with price now probing the asian base near 158.07 and RSI(14) at ~38. The 38.2% fib of the Asia leg sits at 158.02, just above the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.07, 158.00
Resistance: 158.20, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.07 asian base exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% fib at 158.02
Reclaim of the 158.20 range low puts price back inside the 158.20–158.45 London range and negates the break
A break above the 158.45 session high invalidates the triple top read
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
London range 158.20–158.45 broken lower; testing Asia-leg 23.6%.
The Tokyo breakout above 157.56, driven by firm US yields, carried USDJPY to a 158.45 session high at the London open. Four rejections there gave way mid-London to a slip below the 158.20 range floor. Price is holding just above the 158.13 London low, on the asia leg fib 23.6%, with RSI(14) near 45 and the 158.10 swing low next below.
Support: 158.13, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.20, 158.45
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% of the asia leg fib near 158.02
An M15 close back above the 158.20 range floor negates the range break and puts the 158.45 session high back in focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Official verbal intervention commentary is a tail risk while price trades above 158.00
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling into London range · RSI 42 · price 158.181
Asia breakout to 158.40, then a 158.20–158.45 London range; range floor now under test.
Firm US yields carried the Asia session from 157.37 to 158.40. London has twice met rejection at the 158.45 session high, and the latest bar is slipping under the 158.20 range floor, with price below ema20 and RSI(14) near 42. Below sit the 158.10 swing low and the 158.00 round number, with the 38.2% of the asia rally fib near 158.04.
Support: 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.20, 158.29, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.20 range floor would restore the London range read, with ema20 at 158.29 the first cap
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% asia rally fib near 158.04
A break above the 158.45 session high resumes the Asia uptrend, though intervention-warning risk rises toward 159
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tankan misses and high US yields carried USD/JPY from the 157.32 rollover low through 158.00 in Asia, part of the 61-pip leg off the 157.32 low retraced on the fib. London briefly pushed above the Asian high but has since held a 158.20–158.45 range, with four rejections at the range top. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53, and the swing low at 158.10 and the 158.00 round number sit below the london low.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 london low opens the 158.10 swing low and 158.00 round number
Acceptance above the 158.45 range top brings the 158.50 psych level into view
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the London range
Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC and intervention rhetoric toward 159.00 could materially shift this read
Tankan misses and a non-committal BoJ read lifted USD/JPY from 157.32 through 158.00 during Asia, with high US yields adding to the move. London has since held a 158.20–158.45 range: the 158.45 london high has capped three tests, while dips toward the 158.20 london low have been bought.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 london high opens the 158.50 round number
Loss of the 158.10 asia dip low exposes the 38.2% of the overnight leg fib near 158.02 and the 158.00 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the London range either way
Intervention rhetoric as price approaches 159.00 could cap extension
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in mid-London · RSI 57 · price 158.391
Tight range 158.20–158.45 after Asia-session leg higher.
Tankan misses and firm US yields drove an Asia-session leg from 157.32 to 158.21. A pre-London dip to the 158.10 swing low found buyers, and London printed a 158.45 session high before stalling. Price has since held a 158.20–158.45 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 session high reopens the path to the 159.00 psych level, an intervention-fear zone
Break below the 158.20 range low exposes the 158.10 swing low and 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% of the tankan leg fib
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London range 158.20–158.45 after Asia breakout; higher lows compressing into flat top.
Asia ran from 157.32 through 158.00 as US yields outweighed the Tankan misses. London has stalled under the 158.45 session high, rejected three times there. Rising lows from the 158.10 pullback low through the 158.20 london low to 158.27 are pressing price into that flat top, with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 158.27, 158.20, 158.10
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 session high opens the 158.50 round number, then 159.00 psych where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Break of the rising lows and the 158.20 london low turns the London range into a lower-high pullback toward the 158.10 pullback low and the 38.2% fib near 158.02
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC is the next JPY-side risk
09:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into London · RSI 51 · price 158.326
Asia breakout above 158.00, London range 158.20–158.45.
USDJPY extended the overnight climb from 157.32 and cleared the 158.00 round number in Asia as firm US yields outweighed weak Tankan data. London briefly broke the 158.40 Asian high, but three tests of the 158.45 session high met rejection. Mid-London, price is ranging between the 158.20 London low and 158.45, RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR around 13–14 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 session high breaks the London range; the 158.50 psych level sits just above and intervention rhetoric is a cap risk
Failure to hold the 158.20 London low, near the 23.6% fib, exposes the 158.10 swing low and the 158.00 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in a London range · RSI 54 · price 158.378
Higher lows intact; 158.20–158.45 range under the London high.
Asia carried USDJPY from 157.55 to 158.40 as high US yields outweighed the Tankan misses. The London open pushed just past the Asian high to the 158.45 london high, and price has since held a 158.20–158.45 range through mid-session, with the london low and the 158.10 swing low (38.2% of the asia leg fib) intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 158.20, 158.10
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 london high resumes the higher-high chain toward the 158.50 round number
M15 close below the 158.20 london low exposes the 158.10 swing low at the 38.2% of the asia leg fib
Asia trendline break below roughly 158.15 would end the higher-low sequence
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC (Waller also at 14:00 UTC) could break the London range
Japanese verbal intervention risk rises as price presses toward 159.00
The rally from the post-PCE low at 156.65 ran through Asia on firm US yields, clearing the 158.00 round number and the 158.10 swing low area. Mid-London, price has compressed between the 158.20 london low and the 158.45 session high with the asia high at 158.40 capping. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and the PCE-low fib 38.2% sits well below at 157.76.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.45
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 session high extends the uptrend; repeated rejection at the 158.40 asia high keeps the range intact
Failure to hold the 158.20 london low exposes the 158.10 swing low and the 158.00 round number
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Mfg PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Any Japanese verbal intervention near these highs would likely override the range structure
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 55 · price 158.375
Higher lows at 158.10/158.20 compressing under a 158.45 London high.
Asia extended the rally from 157.32 through the 158.00 round number after the Tankan misses, with US yields still firm. The early London push set a 158.45 high that capped a second test at 158.44. Rising lows from the 158.10 swing low to the 158.20 London low keep price compressed beneath it, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 55.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 London high opens the 158.50 round number and breaks the compression
Failure to hold the 158.20 London low and the rising lows line exposes the 158.10 swing low
A break below 158.10 shifts focus to the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; 158.20–158.45 consolidation after London open.
Elevated US yields carried the post-PCE rebound from 156.65 through 158.00 in Asia. London open dipped to the 158.10 swing low, then printed a 158.45 session high that was retested and capped. Price is now consolidating above the 158.20 pullback low, holding the 23.6% fib of the Asia rally and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.45, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.45 session high reopens the uptrend and puts the 158.50 psych level in view
Close below the 158.20 pullback low leaves the 158.10 swing low and 158.00 round number exposed, near the 38.2% fib
Break of the rising trendline from the Asia lows would end the higher-low sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any Japanese intervention rhetoric as the pair extends higher
HH/HL chain from the 156.65 PCE low; London holding a 158.20–158.45 band.
USD/JPY fully reversed the 156.65 post-PCE dip and broke 158.00 in Asia as US yields stayed high and Tankan misses weighed on the yen. The London open pushed to a 158.45 session high, and the pullback held the 158.20 london low, leaving the pair coiling just below the highs with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.451, 158.50, 159.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 158.45 session high opens the 158.50 psych level, then the 159.00 1-month high, where intervention risk builds
Failure to hold the 158.20 london low exposes the 158.10 swing low and the rising trendline near 158.00 round number
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC; Tokyo CPI at 23:30 UTC sits outside this session
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 158.269
Higher lows from Asia, London-open push rejected above Asian high.
The Asia rally on Tankan misses and firm US yields lifted the pair through 158.00. The London open printed a new session high at 158.45 above the 158.40 Asian high, but the push was rejected and price is back near 158.27. The higher-low chain anchored at the 158.10 swing low is intact, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) around 12 pips.
Support: 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 158.45
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.45 session high would negate the false break at the Asian high
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally
US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid f/c 72.3) alongside Waller could materially shift this read
Japanese verbal intervention around 158–159 is a headline risk to the Asia rally structure
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, new session high · RSI 61 · price 158.408
Higher lows since late NY; London open dip to 158.10 held, break above 158.40.
USDJPY cleared the 158.28 cap during Asia as elevated US yields kept the yen heavy. The London open dip to 158.10 was absorbed and price printed a session high at 158.45, now holding just above the prior high at 158.40. RSI(14) is near 61, not stretched.
Support: 158.40, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.451, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the prior high at 158.40 would turn the session-high break into a false break
Failure to hold the london low at 158.10 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib
Acceptance above the session high at 158.45 opens the 158.50 psych level; intervention rhetoric toward 159.00 is the known brake
Loss of rising support from the 157.32 low would end the Asia-London uptrend structure
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 60 · price 158.339
Asian breakout above 158.00, higher low at 158.10 into London open.
Elevated US yields lifted USDJPY through the 158.00 round number and the 158.28 prior cap during Asia, topping at the 158.40 Asian high. The late-Asia pullback held a higher low at 158.10, and the London open has bounced price back to the prior cap with RSI(14) near 60, along rising support off the 157.38 base.
Support: 158.28, 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.40, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 Asian high extends the leg toward the 159.00 psych level
Close back below the 158.10 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
Loss of the 158.00 round number puts the Asia breakout at risk of a false break
US Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Japanese verbal intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk above 158.40
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia high · RSI 52 · price 158.163
HH/HL chain from the 156.65 post-PCE low, now pulling back. Lower high at 158.29 after rejection at 158.40..
Asia extended the post-PCE recovery on firm US yields and the Tankan miss, reaching a session high at 158.40 before a sharp rejection. That rejection left a lower high at 158.29, and London opens with price near the 23.6% of the Asia leg fib, just above the 158.10 swing low and the 158.06 asia shelf, RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 158.097, 158.06, 158.00
Resistance: 158.29, 158.401
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 asia shelf and the 158.00 round number shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib near 157.99
Recovery through the 158.29 lower high and the 158.40 session high resumes the HH chain into the 158.28 cap area flagged for intervention risk
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally into a 158.06–158.40 range; micro lower high off the top.
USD/JPY ran from 157.32 through 158.00 in the Asia session after the Tankan misses and firm US yields, then printed a rejection at the 158.40 session high and a lower high at 158.29 into the London open. Price sits at 158.15, just below EMA20 and on the 23.6% retrace of the Asia rally, with the 158.06 asia floor holding on four tests since 02:00 UTC.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.86
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 asia floor exposes the 158.00 round number and the fib 50% at 157.86
Recovery above the 158.29 lower high reopens the 158.40 session high; a close above it resumes the uptrend
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Intervention rhetoric near 158.28–158.40 could produce outsized moves relative to the ~10-pip ATR
HH/HL chain through Asia, first rejection at 158.40.
Asia extended the post-PCE recovery from 156.65 to a 158.401 session high on firm US yields and the Tankan miss. The 06:00 UTC rejection off that high held at the 158.168 swing low, keeping the rising lows intact. Price is pinned at the 158.28 cap into London open, with the 158.06 range low as the Asia consolidation base.
Support: 158.168, 158.063, 158.00
Resistance: 158.401, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.401 session high extends the HH chain, with 158.50 round number next
Break of the 158.168 swing low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 158.063 range low and 158.00 psych, the 38.2% of the asia leg fib
Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read; intervention rhetoric near 158.28 is a two-sided risk
Asia higher-low chain intact; sharp pullback from 158.40 into ema20.
The Asia session rally on the Tankan misses and firm US yields lifted USD/JPY from 157.32 to a 158.40 session high, followed by a higher-lows grind above the 158.06 range base. The 06:00 UTC bar rejected the session high and dropped 23 pips to 158.17 (ema20/low), and price is holding there into the London open. RSI(14) has cooled to about 55, with the 158.30 prior pivot overhead.
Support: 158.17, 158.06, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.17 ema20/low breaks the higher-lows trendline and opens the 158.06 range base
Loss of 158.00 round number, also the 38.2% fib of the Asia move, would mark a deeper retracement of the rally
Reclaim of the 158.30 prior pivot and a close above the 158.40 session high resumes the HH/HL chain
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, ISM Mfg and Waller 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
MoF/BoJ verbal pushback above 158 is a live headline risk for sharp downside spikes
HH/HL stair-step through Asia, holding above 158.28.
Asia extended the post-PCE recovery, lifting the pair from 157.32 to a 158.40 session high on firm US yields and the across-the-board Tankan miss. Price is holding just above the 158.28 former cap, an intervention-sensitive level, into late Asia. Higher lows step up along a rising trendline, with the 158.18 swing low the nearest one, and RSI(14) sits near 67 without being stretched.
Support: 158.28, 158.18, 158.06
Resistance: 158.40, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.28 former cap would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 158.18 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain. The 158.06 pullback low and the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib near 158.00 are next
Acceptance above the 158.40 session high exposes the 158.50 round number, where MoF/BoJ verbal pushback risk rises
London open is due within the hour. Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Asia; consolidation broken above 158.20.
Asia extended the recovery from the post-PCE 156.65 lows, with Tankan misses adding yen pressure and firm US yields lifting the pair through the 158.06–158.20 range to a 158.35 session high, just above the 158.28 prior cap. Higher lows at the 158.06 range low and the 158.18 swing low define the advance. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 158.28, 158.18, 158.06
Resistance: 158.35, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.28 prior cap turns the push above it into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.18 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.06 range low
Clearance of the 158.35 session high opens the 158.50 round number
London open may test the Asian range high at 158.35
MoF/BoJ verbal pushback above 158.00 could abruptly reverse the higher-lows sequence
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, with Claims at 12:30, could materially shift this read
Asia session carried the post-PCE recovery through 158.00 psych and the 158.28 cap on firm US yields and a broad Tankan miss, printing a session high at 158.353 about 1h45m before London open. The swing low at 158.06 and the higher low at 158.18 sit on a rising trendline, and RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.184, 158.063, 158.00
Resistance: 158.353, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.18 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
Failure to hold the 158.06 swing low exposes 158.00 psych and the 38.2% of the Asia leg near 157.96
Acceptance above the 158.353 session high opens the path to the 158.50 round number
MoF/BoJ verbal intervention as price extends above 158 could abruptly reverse the Asia leg
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, new session high at 158.35.
The PCE-driven dip to 156.65 in NY hours fully reversed. Asia session then carried USD/JPY through the 158.00 round number on firm US yields and a broad Tankan miss, with a 158.06–158.22 range low base giving way to a fresh session high at 158.35 into late Asia. RSI(14) at 67 is warm but not stretched; the 158.18 swing low anchors the latest higher low.
Support: 158.18, 158.06, 158.00
Resistance: 158.35, 158.50
What it said to watch
Hold above the 158.18 swing low keeps the higher-low chain intact into the London open
M15 close back below the 158.06 range low and 158.00 round number exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg near 157.96
Acceptance above the session high opens the 158.50 psych level; MoF/BoJ verbal-intervention headlines above 158 could abruptly reverse the leg
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near session high · RSI 74 · price 158.293
HH/HL chain from 157.32; 158.06–158.30 box since 01:00 UTC.
Asia session pushed the post-PCE recovery through the 158.00 round number on firm US yields and a broad Tankan miss, then held a 158.06–158.30 box for four hours. Late Asia is pressing the 158.30 session high, which overlaps the 158.20–158.28 resistance zone, with a 158.18 higher low printed on the latest dip and RSI(14) near 74.
Support: 158.18, 158.06, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high breaks the box and puts the 158.50 round number in play
Failure to hold the 158.18 higher low turns the box back toward the 158.06 range floor
Loss of 158.06 and the 158.00 round number exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg near 157.93
MoF verbal intervention risk rises with any extension above 158.30
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC can materially shift this read
Firm US yields and a broad Tankan miss drove the Asia session leg from 157.37 through the 158.00 round number to a 158.30 session high, extending the full reversal of the post-PCE dip. Since 02:00 UTC price has held a 158.06–158.30 range, with the range low tested three times. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.65
Resistance: 158.30, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.30 session high opens 158.50 psych; intervention sensitivity rises on any extension
Loss of the 158.06 range low and the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.94 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, then the 157.65 pullback low
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 78 · price 158.271
Asia breakout above NY high; HH/HL chain, consolidation 158.06–158.22 resolved higher.
Asia cleared the prior NY high at 157.54 after the broad Tankan miss and elevated US yields, extending to a session high of 158.30 inside the 158.20–158.28 resistance zone where intervention sensitivity sits. The rising trendline from 157.32 is intact, and the 158.06–158.22 consolidation broke higher through the 158.22 prior high, with RSI(14) near 78 and the late-Asia bar stalling just under the session high.
Support: 158.218, 158.063, 157.537
Resistance: 158.296
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.22 prior high puts price back inside the consolidation
Failure to hold the 158.06 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the asia leg fib 38.2% near 157.93
Acceptance above the 158.30 session high extends the HH chain; any MoF verbal intervention could trigger a sharp reversal
London open in ~2.5h; US claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally into tight 158.06–158.25 consolidation.
A soft Tankan and firm US yields drove a roughly 90-pip Asia-session rally from 157.32 through the 158.00 round number. Price has since held a 158.06–158.22 consolidation and just printed a marginal new session high at 158.245, with RSI(14) near 70. The 158.28 cap sits directly overhead and is an intervention-sensitive area.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.89
Resistance: 158.245, 158.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.06 range floor turns the consolidation into a pullback toward the 158.00 round number
Acceptance above the 158.28 cap extends the Asia-session uptrend
A slide through 158.00 brings the fib 38.2 retracement of the Asia leg at 157.89 into view
MoF verbal intervention headlines could abruptly reverse the Asia-session gains
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above 158.00, now a tight 158.06–158.22 consolidation.
Asia session drove the pair from 157.37 through the 158.00 round number to a 158.22 session high, helped by the soft Tankan and firm US yields. The two hours since have held a 158.06–158.22 consolidation as RSI(14) cooled from the mid-70s to about 67.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.89
Resistance: 158.22, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 consol low and 158.00 round number turns the consolidation into a pullback toward the 157.89 fib 38.2
Close above the 158.22 session high and the 158.28 break level extends the Asia breakout; intervention-risk headlines could cap follow-through
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session drove a 90-pip leg from the 157.32 swing low through the 157.54 prior high and the 158.00 round number to a 158.22 session high, helped by the soft Tankan and firm US yields. Since 02:00 UTC price has compressed between the 158.06 range low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 76 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.54
Resistance: 158.218, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 range low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% fib near 157.88
Close above the 158.22 session high brings the 158.28 cap into play, where intervention risk is flagged
Return below the 157.54 prior high would unwind the Asia breakout leg
US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above 158.00, now a tight 158.06–158.22 box.
The Asia session extended the post-PCE recovery after soft Tankan data. Price cleared the 157.54 ny high and the 158.00 round number, then set a 158.22 session high. The last six bars have compressed between the 158.06 range low and that high, just under the 158.20–158.28 res band, with RSI(14) cooling to about 74 and the London open roughly 3.5h away.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.54
Resistance: 158.22, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 range low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.88 38.2% of the asia leg fib
Close above the 158.22 session high puts the 158.28 res band in play, where intervention rhetoric has capped price
Loss of 157.77 (50% of the asia leg fib) would put the 157.54 ny high back in focus
Any MoF/BoJ verbal intervention could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC
Asia breakout from 157.37, now a tight 158.06–158.22 range.
Tankan misses sent USD/JPY out of the 157.32–157.44 overnight base. The Asia session leg ran from 157.37 to a 158.22 session high, clearing the 158.00 round number and the 157.54 prior high from NY hours. Price has stalled mid-Asia in a 16-pip range (158.06 range low to 158.22), RSI(14) cooling to about 73. The rising trendline from the post-PCE 156.65 low sits well below, near 157.74.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.54
Resistance: 158.22, 158.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.06 range low exposes the 158.00 round number and the fib 38.2% of the Asia leg at 157.89.
A close above the 158.22 session high brings 158.28 into play, a resistance level where Japanese intervention risk is flagged.
Verbal or actual intervention from MoF/BoJ near these levels would invalidate the breakout read.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Losing the 157.54 prior high and the PCE-low trendline would unwind the whole Asia breakout.
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 75 · price 158.114
Asia rally from 157.37, now a tight 158.06–158.22 consolidation.
Yesterday's post-PCE dip to 156.65 has fully reversed, and broad Tankan misses fuelled an ~85-pip Asia session rally off the 157.37 asian low. The rally has stalled just under the 158.22 session high at the base of the 158.00–158.28 cap zone flagged for intervention risk, with RSI(14) cooling to about 75 as price holds a narrow 158.06–158.22 range.
Support: 158.064, 157.894, 157.37
Resistance: 158.218, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 swing low exposes the fib 38.2% retracement near 157.89
Close above the 158.22 session high puts the 158.28 top of the cap zone in play
MoF/BoJ verbal intervention near 158.00–158.28 could abruptly reverse the Asia gains
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC can reset the range later today
Loss of the 157.37 asian low would erase the full Asia session advance
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 79 · price 158.165
HH/HL chain through Asia, above prior NY high.
Asia session ran higher after the across-the-board Tankan misses. The Asia leg from 157.324 cleared the prior NY high at 157.537 and the 158.00 round number, then printed a session high at 158.218, just under the intervention-sensitive 158.28 break level. The shallow dip to the 158.064 pullback low held along the rising trendline, and RSI(14) near 79 shows the leg is stretched.
Support: 158.064, 158.00, 157.876
Resistance: 158.218, 158.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.28 break level extends the breakout beyond the session high
Failure to hold the 158.064 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 158.00 round number, then fib 38.2 of the Asia leg at 157.876
MoF/BoJ verbal intervention in the 158.00–158.28 zone could abruptly reverse the leg
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 79 · price 158.092
HH/HL chain from 157.32 rollover low, through 158.00.
The Asia session rallied about 90 pips off the 157.32 rollover low. It cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 157.54 and the 158.00 psych level after the Tankan missed across the board. The last two bars are stalling under the 158.22 session high, just below the 158.28 break level, with RSI(14) near 79.
Support: 158.00, 157.65, 157.54
Resistance: 158.22, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.00 psych puts the 157.65 swing low (61.8% fib) in play
Failure to hold 157.54 prior high would unwind the Asia-session breakout
Clean M15 close above the 158.28 break level extends the HH chain; MoF/BoJ intervention signals sensitive in this zone
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched at session high · RSI 86 · price 158.136
HH/HL chain from 157.37; prior-day high cleared, flat bars at top.
Asia session built a higher-high, higher-low chain from 157.37. It cleared yesterday's 157.54 prior high after the across-the-board Tankan miss and tagged a 158.22 session high just under the 158.28 break level. RSI(14) near 86 is stretched, and the last bars are flattening while price sits on the Asia trendline.
Support: 158.00, 157.81, 157.54
Resistance: 158.22, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asia trendline and the 158.00 round number shifts the read to a pullback toward the 157.81 swing low, near the 50% of the Asia leg (157.79)
Acceptance above the 158.22 session high and 158.28 break level extends the HH chain; this is intervention-sensitive territory, and MoF/BoJ rhetoric could reverse the move abruptly
Loss of 157.54 prior high returns price to yesterday's range and negates the breakout
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing/Waller 14:00 UTC and Tokyo CPI 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia; broke above NY high, now testing 158.00–158.28.
The Tankan miss at 23:50 UTC broke the pair out of its post-PCE 157.33–157.54 band. Asia then ran about 80 pips through the NY high to an Asia high of 158.21, holding above the round number at 158.00. RSI(14) near 83 is stretched, and price sits at the 158.20–158.28 res zone, where the digest flags MoF intervention sensitivity.
Support: 158.00, 157.651, 157.537
Resistance: 158.213, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts the breakout under pressure
Break of the Asia trendline and the 157.65 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the NY high at 157.54 is next
Acceptance above the 158.28 res zone extends the leg, while rejection there with RSI rolling from 83 points to an intraday top
Verbal intervention from MoF/BoJ near 158 could produce an abrupt reversal
US Challenger job cuts at 09:30 UTC (London session) and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalysts
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into 158.00 · RSI 82 · price 158.031
Asia breakout above prior NY high, unbroken HH/HL chain since 23:00 UTC.
Asia session cleared the prior high at 157.54 after the across-the-board Tankan miss and climbed in an unbroken HH/HL chain to a 158.14 session high, with RSI(14) near 82. Price is holding just above the 158.00 round number, below the 158.28 intervention zone flagged in the digest.
Support: 158.00, 157.845, 157.537
Resistance: 158.139, 158.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts the fib 38.2 retracement at 157.85 in focus
Failure to hold the prior high at 157.54 would undo the Asia breakout
Acceptance above the 158.14 session high exposes the 158.28 intervention zone, where MoF/BoJ rhetoric risk rises
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into 158.00 · RSI 84 · price 158.027
Asia session breakout above early Asian range; HH/HL chain since 23:30 UTC.
Asia session broke the 157.32–157.44 early Asian range after the across-the-board Tankan miss. Price cleared the prior NY high at 157.54 and set a session high at 158.03 against the 158.00 round number. RSI(14) near 84 is extended, and the 00:15 UTC pullback low at 157.65 is the only higher low in the leg.
Support: 157.65, 157.54, 157.44
Resistance: 158.03, 158.28
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 158.00 round number and session high would leave the leg overbought and exposed to a fib pullback toward 157.68–157.60
M15 close below the 157.65 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline; failure to hold the 157.54 NY high puts price back near the asian high
Approach to 158.28 enters the intervention zone flagged in the digest; MoF/BoJ rhetoric could reverse the move sharply
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the PCE low; Asia session broke the NY high.
Early in the Asia session, USD/JPY broke the 157.537 NY high after the across-the-board Tankan miss. That extends the recovery from the 156.65 post-PCE low to a 157.944 session high, just shy of the 158.00 round number. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched, but the HH/HL chain and the trendline from the PCE low are intact.
Support: 157.651, 157.537, 157.324
Resistance: 157.944, 158.00, 158.28
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number puts 158.28 in play, the intervention-sensitive zone flagged by MoF/BoJ rhetoric
A slip below the 157.651 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg near the 157.537 NY high
Loss of the 157.324 rollover low and the PCE-low trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into 158.00 · RSI 82 · price 157.923
Asia session breakout above the prior NY high; HH/HL chain since 157.32.
The across-the-board Tankan misses at the Tokyo open pushed price out of the 157.32–157.44 asian base and through the 157.537 ny high. That extends the post-PCE recovery from 156.648 to a 157.934 session high, with the 00:15 UTC pullback holding a higher swing low at 157.651. RSI(14) near 82 is stretched as price presses into the 158.00 round number, which the digest also flags as the 50-day SMA and the start of the intervention-sensitive zone.
Support: 157.651, 157.537, 157.324
Resistance: 157.934, 158.00, 158.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 157.651 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the tankan leg fib 50–61.8% (157.63–157.56) in play
Failure to hold the 157.537 ny high turns the breakout into a false break and points back to the asian base
Acceptance above the 158.00 round number exposes the 158.28 cap, where MoF intervention headlines could abruptly reverse the move
A break below the rising support trendline from the asian base signals momentum fading after the overbought run
US Challenger cuts at 09:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC lead into ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, which could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into Tokyo morning · RSI 79 · price 157.792
HH/HL chain from PCE low, prior high broken.
The across-the-board Tankan miss lifted the pair through the 157.54 prior high (NY session top) into a fresh Asia session high at 157.88. This extends the HL chain off the 156.65 post-PCE low along a rising trendline. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and the 157.65 pullback low is the first intraday shelf below.
Support: 157.65, 157.54, 157.32
Resistance: 157.88, 158.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 157.54 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break and return price to the late-NY range
158.00 round number is the next test above the session high; intervention headlines remain a cap risk
A break of the 157.32 rollover low and the rising trendline from the PCE low would end the HL chain
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended after Asian breakout · RSI 79 · price 157.763
Higher lows since post-PCE low; prior NY high cleared.
Early Asia session broke out of its 157.32–157.44 range after the across-the-board Tankan misses, clearing the 157.54 prior high (NY peak) and printing a 157.78 session high. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched. Rising support from the post-PCE low now converges with the 157.54 prior high.
Support: 157.54, 157.32
Resistance: 157.78, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 157.54 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of rising support and the 157.32 asian low ends the higher-low chain
158.00 psych sits in intervention-headline territory; rejection there would cap the extension
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
00:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh leg higher · RSI 72 · price 157.701
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the post-PCE low; early Asia range broken to the upside.
The early Asia range broke higher into the 23:50 UTC Tankan release. The 157.32–157.44 range top gave way, price cleared the 157.537 prior high (late NY session high) and printed a 157.764 session high, with RSI(14) near 72. The higher-low chain from the post-PCE 156.648 low holds above the rising trendline, and the 23.6% fib of that leg sits near 157.50, beside the prior high.
Support: 157.537, 157.437, 157.324
Resistance: 157.764, 158.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 157.537 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.437 range top puts price back inside the Asia range
A break of the 157.324 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
158.00 round number is the flagged intervention line; area to watch for rejection or break
Japanese verbal warnings or rate-check headlines could abruptly reverse the leg
HH/HL chain from 156.65; early-Asia breakout above the NY high.
Higher lows have stacked along a rising trendline since the post-PCE flush to 156.65. The pair cleared the 157.54 ny high around the Tankan release window and printed a 157.61 session high as Asia opens. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme, with the 158.00 intervention line about 40 pips above.
Support: 157.54, 157.32, 157.00
Resistance: 157.61, 158.00
What it said to watch
Tankan (23:50 UTC) still being digested: a strong print would pull price back toward the ny high at 157.54
A close back below 157.54 turns the move into a false break inside the 157.32–157.54 band
Loss of the rising trendline and the 157.32 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain
A push toward 158.00 meets the intervention line; Katayama/Bessent headlines would cap extension
Below 157.32, the 157.00 option strike (option 157) is the next magnet