21:04 UTC
Post-intervention range, below falling EMA50 · RSI 54 · price 157.614
Lower highs 163.99/160.39/159.03 with a higher low off 152.89; contracting range.
The May–July uptrend topped at 163.99 and broke on the late-July intervention collapse. Since then the pair has held a 152.89 range floor to 160.39 range top, with a lower high at the 159.03 swing high in late September and a higher low at the 156.38 swing low this week. USD strength on hawkish Fed repricing drove the rebound off the September low, but price stalled near the falling EMA(50) around 158.07 and the 61.8% retracement at 157.52, with RSI flat near 54 and intervention risk around 158.4–159 per the macro backdrop.
Support: 156.38, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.07, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Tokyo CPI in ~2.5h; a hot print could pull price back toward the 156.38 swing low
- US NFP on Fri Oct 2 could materially shift this read; a strong beat would test the ema50 and 159.03 swing high
- Daily close above the 159.03 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 160.39 range top back in view
- Failure to hold the 156.38 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 155.23 aug low, then the 152.89 range floor