The downtrend has been in place since the 30 July collapse from the 163.99 top. The 160.39 sept high set a lower high, and the move from there printed a lower low at the 152.89 sept low. The two-week recovery retraced just over half of the Jul–Sep drop before a rejection at 159.03, a fresh lower high, and price is back below both EMAs with the ema50 near 158.05 rolling lower. Joint US-Japan intervention warnings and the soft US core PCE print have kept the rebound capped. The 156.38 recent low is the nearest reference, with the 155.25 aug low (retested in early September) below it.
Support: 156.38, 155.25, 152.89
Resistance: 158.05, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
Daily close back above the ema50 at 158.05 and the 159.03 lower high would break the LH/LL chain and bring the 160.39 sept high into view
Failure to hold the 156.38 recent low exposes the 155.25 aug low; a close beneath that shelf reopens the 152.89 sept low
A daily close above the lower-high line from 160.39 to 159.03 would signal the downtrend losing structure
Tankan tonight at 23:50 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing plus Waller on Thursday could materially shift this read
Any move from verbal to actual intervention, or a rate check, is a tail risk for an outsized daily range
10:33 UTC
Downtrend since late July, rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 157.396
Lower highs and lower lows from the 163.99 peak; bounce capped at 159.03 lower high.
USDJPY has traded in a downtrend since the 163.99 peak on Jul 23. The Jul 30–Aug 3 flush set the aug low at 155.23, the Sep 2 lower high at 160.39 failed, and the pair then printed a sept low of 152.89 on Sep 8. The rebound from that low retraced about 80% before a rejection at the 159.03 swing high on Sep 24, and the Sep 25 reversal coincided with the Bessent-Katayama intervention call. Price has since consolidated between the 156.50 week low and the falling ema50 near 158.07, sitting at the 61.8% retracement, with RSI neutral at 52.
Support: 156.50, 155.23, 152.89
Resistance: 158.07, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
US core PCE and ADP today (12:30/12:15 GMT), then NFP later this week, could decide whether the 156.50 week low or the ema50 at 158.07 gives way first
A daily close above the 159.03 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 160.39 lower high back in view
A daily close below the 156.50 week low and the rebound trendline exposes the 155.23 aug low
Intervention risk around 158.20 caps upside attempts toward the ema50, and tonight's Tankan adds a JPY-side catalyst