USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Sideways after Friday's drop, range compressing · RSI 46 · price 157.366
Pennant: higher lows from 156.50, lower highs from 157.85.
USD/JPY has been compressing since Monday's London-session flush to the 156.50 low. Higher lows at Tuesday's 156.98 low and the 157.16 higher low have formed, while lower highs at the 157.85 Monday high and 157.71 Tuesday high have capped each rally, a pennant after Friday's slide from the 159.03 high on Trump's yen comments and joint US-Japan intervention messaging. Price is sitting on a flattening EMA(20) near 157.37 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46; Tuesday's highs stalled just under the 50% fib of the 159.03–156.50 drop as Fed hike pricing kept the lows supported.
Support: 157.16, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85, 158.07
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.16 higher low and Tuesday's 156.98 low breaks the pennant base, exposing Monday's 156.50 low
H1 close above the 157.71 Tuesday high and 157.85 Monday high clears the pennant top and 50% fib, with the 61.8% fib at 158.07 next
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC and MoF intervention data are yen-side risks to the consolidation
22:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 157.274
Lower highs vs higher lows since Monday, coiling around the weekly open.
USD/JPY broke lower from 159.03 in Friday's NY session on Trump's yen remarks, and Monday's London slide set the week low at 156.50 (mon low). Since then rebounds have stalled below the 50% fib of that drop. Tuesday printed a higher low at 156.98 (tue low) and a lower high at 157.71 (tue high) under the 157.85 mon high, so the lower highs and higher lows now pinch price around the 157.22 weekly open. Price sits just under the ema20 near 157.38, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR contracting to about 23 pips, as Fed hike pricing offsets yen intervention risk.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.38, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above 157.71 tue high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 157.85 mon high and the 50% fib near 157.77
Failure to hold 156.98 tue low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes 156.50 mon low
Sustained trade back above the ema20 and weekly open would shift the read from a downtrend pause to a range
MoF intervention data plus US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wed could break the compression either way
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC tonight and Tankan at 23:50 UTC Wed add JPY event risk
Contracting range 156.50–157.85, lower highs vs higher lows.
Since Monday, USDJPY has compressed into a 156.50–157.85 range after last week's slide from 159.03 on US-Japan intervention warnings. The Monday low at 156.50 printed at the London open, the Tuesday low at 156.98 held above it, and Tuesday's two highs at 157.71 and 157.70 stalled below the 157.85 week high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the drop. Price has slipped back below EMA(20) around 157.40 and is hovering at the 157.22 weekly open with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, as yen support from Katayama's remarks offsets Fed October-hike pricing.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.40, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 156.98 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.50 monday low
H1 close above the 157.85 week high clears the lower-highs line and the 50% fib, voiding the pennant read
Repeated failure to reclaim ema20 near 157.40 keeps supply capping the range top
MoF intervention data, plus US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC on Wed, could materially shift this read
Japan retail trade at 23:50 UTC tonight is a near-term JPY catalyst
Lower highs and higher lows compressing below 38.2% fib of Friday's drop.
Friday's slide from the 159.03 Thursday high came during London-NY hours on Trump's yen concern. Monday's London dip to the monday low at 156.50 failed to hold below Friday's 156.94 low. Since then the pair has compressed: the tuesday high at 157.71 sits below the monday high at 157.85, the tuesday low at 156.98 sits above Monday's, and highs are capped near the 38.2% fib at 157.47. Price is back near the weekly open at 157.22, just under the flat ema20, with RSI(14) near 47, as Fed-hike pricing offsets intervention talk.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.39, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the tuesday low at 156.98 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the monday low at 156.50
H1 close above the monday high at 157.85 breaks the lower-high line and puts the 61.8% fib near 158.07 in view
Sustained trade back above the ema20 at 157.39 and weekly open 157.22 keeps the range intact
MoF intervention data Wed could materially shift this read in either direction
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed are the USD-side test for the consolidation
Lower highs against rising lows since Monday's low, compressing inside 156.50–157.85.
USD/JPY has been boxed in a 156.50–157.85 range since Monday's London-open flush to the week low, following Friday's drop from 159.03 on US-Japan intervention warnings. Tuesday's London and NY rallies both met rejection near the tuesday high at 157.70, and the late NY fade has returned price to the weekly open at 157.22. Price now sits below EMA(20) and between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) at about 44. Rising lows off 156.50 and the lower highs line are squeezing the range, while a firm USD on yields offsets yen demand.
Support: 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.38, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the tuesday high at 157.71 and the lower highs line opens a test of the week high at 157.85 and the 50% fib near 157.77
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 156.98 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the week low at 156.50
EMA20 near 157.38 capping hourly closes keeps the range-lower-half read intact
Waller at 19:00 UTC and Wed MoF intervention data could materially shift this read
ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, then Tankan at 23:50 UTC, are the next range-break risks
18:04 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 157.358
Higher lows vs lower highs compressing inside 156.98–157.71 after a 156.50 lower low.
Friday's drop from 159.03 ran from London into the NY open on Trump's yen comments and extended to a 156.50 week low at Monday's London open. Since then, higher lows and lower highs have compressed price around the 38.2% fib at 157.47. EMA(20) at 157.41 is flat and EMA(50) at 157.53 sits overhead, with RSI(14) near 47. Tokyo's intervention rhetoric is capping rebounds, including Tuesday's London rejection from 157.71, while Fed-hike pricing has kept the NY-session dips above the 157.22 weekly open area.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.47, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.71 tuesday high breaks the lower highs line, opening the 157.77 50% fib and the 157.85 monday high.
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and the 156.98 tuesday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 156.50 week low.
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) tonight, then ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC tomorrow, could materially shift this read.
Wednesday's MoF intervention data and the Tankan (23:50 UTC) are the yen-side risks to the consolidation.
17:03 UTC
Sideways after Friday's sell-off, range compressing · RSI 52 · price 157.493
Contracting range: lower highs and higher lows since Monday's 156.50 low.
USD/JPY has compressed between the 156.98 day low and the 157.85 week high since Monday's London-open dip to the 156.50 week low. That dip followed Friday's drop from 159.03 on the yen-intervention headlines, and the swings since have printed lower highs and higher lows. Tuesday's London sell-off from the 157.71 day high was absorbed into NY as 5.2% US yields offset Katayama's warnings. Price sits back above EMA(20) at the 38.2% retracement near 157.47, with RSI(14) flat around 52 and still marginally under EMA(50).
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.71 day high and 157.85 week high breaks the lower-highs line and clears the 50% fib at 157.77
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and then the 156.98 day low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.50 week low
Williams and Waller speak today; Wednesday brings MoF intervention data, ADP and core PCE. Any of these could materially shift this read
Tankan at 23:50 UTC Wednesday could move the pair via BoJ back-to-back hike pricing
Contracting range 156.98–157.85 after Friday's lower low; higher low vs lower high.
Friday's Trump-driven slide from 159.03 ran to a 156.50 week low in Monday's London session, and USDJPY has since compressed inside a 156.98–157.85 range under a line of lower highs from the week high. Tuesday's London push drew a sharp rejection at the 157.71 Tuesday high, printing a Tuesday low at 156.98 (a higher low) before NY hours recovered most of the drop. Price now sits above the H1 ema20 near 157.42 and just over the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral around 54 as Tokyo's intervention rhetoric caps rallies and Fed October-hike pricing cushions dips.
Support: 157.42, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.71 Tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the week high at 157.85 and the 50% retracement near 157.77 in play
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 156.98 breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 156.50 week low
Loss of the ema20 at 157.42 would return price to the lower half of the consolidation
Fed speakers Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on an October hike could shift this read tonight
Wed ADP (12:15Z) and PCE/GDP (12:30Z), plus MoF intervention data and Tankan (23:50Z), are the main range-break risks
15:02 UTC
Down impulse from 159.03, now consolidating · RSI 54 · price 157.582
USDJPY is compressing in a pennant after Friday's slide from the 159.03 prior high, which ran through London into the NY open. Monday's London-open sweep set the 156.51 week low, and Tuesday's dip held higher at the 156.98 tuesday low. Supply capped the London push at the 157.71 tuesday high, below the 157.85 monday high near the 50% fib of the slide. The NY session then recovered as the JOLTS miss was shrugged off on hawkish Fed pricing. Price is back above the ema20 (~157.42) and only marginally above EMA(50) (~157.52), with RSI(14) near 54, neutral mid-range.
Support: 157.42, 156.98, 156.51
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.71 tuesday high and pennant top opens the 157.85 monday high, then the 61.8% fib near 158.07
Break below the 156.98 tuesday low and pennant base re-exposes the 156.51 week low
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 at 157.42 shift price into the lower half of the pennant
Fed speakers today (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and Wednesday's ADP/PCE from 12:15 UTC could resolve the pennant
Wednesday MoF intervention data and the Tankan at 23:50 UTC are JPY-side risks to the range
14:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, compressing since Monday · RSI 52 · price 157.422
Pennant: lower highs vs higher lows above 156.50.
USD/JPY has been compressing since Monday's London-open low at the 156.50 week low. That low capped a 250-pip decline from Thursday's 159.03 peak, which accelerated on Friday's yen-intervention headlines. Lower highs at the 157.85 week high and the 157.71 today high sit against higher lows at 156.50 and today's 156.98, forming a pennant; price is pinned to EMA(20) near 157.38 and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat around 51. Rebounds have stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the decline, and this morning's London rejection from 157.71 fits the intervention-cap narrative in the JPY digest, while firm US yields have kept dips shallow.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71, 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, followed by Williams and Waller Fedspeak, could force resolution of the pennant this session
H1 close above the 157.71 today high and 157.85 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.00 round number near the 61.8% retracement
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open and the 156.98 higher low puts the 156.50 week low back in play
Fresh Katayama/Mimura intervention remarks, Wednesday's MoF data or Tankan at 23:50 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend from Thursday high, now compressing · RSI 48 · price 157.348
Lower highs 159.03 / 157.85 / 157.70 against a higher low at 156.98; range 156.98–157.70.
The week's dominant leg came in Friday's NY session. Trump's yen comment knocked the pair off Thursday's 159.03 high, and the slide extended to a 156.50 week low at Monday's London open. Since then, price has been boxed between the 156.98 tuesday low and the 157.58 range top, and the recovery keeps stalling around the 38.2% retracement of that drop near 157.47. Tuesday's London push to 157.70 met a sharp rejection as intervention warnings from Katayama/Mimura kept JPY bid, while hawkish Fed repricing has cushioned dips. Price now sits flat at EMA(20), just above the weekly open at 157.22, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 157.22, 156.98, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.70, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.70 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 157.85 monday high into play
Acceptance back above the 157.58 range top would put the 38.2% retracement behind price
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open, then the 156.98 tuesday low, breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 156.50 week low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Waller late in NY hours, could materially shift this read
Any fresh 'rate check' or MoF headlines would change the intraday structure regardless of levels
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after Friday's drop · RSI 43 · price 157.162
Lower highs inside 156.85–157.85 range after Monday sweep.
USD/JPY has recovered only part of Friday's NY-session slide from the 159.03 prior-week high. Monday's London-open sweep through the friday low to the 156.50 weekly low was quickly reclaimed, and price has compressed between 157.00 and 157.85 since. Intervention warnings from Katayama and Mimura are capping rallies despite the Fed-driven USD bid: Tuesday's london high at 157.71 stalled below the 50% fib and reversed through the ema20 and weekly open to 157.16. RSI(14) sits near 43 as lower highs at 157.85 and 157.71 tighten the range.
Support: 157.13, 156.94, 156.50
Resistance: 157.71
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 157.13 session low exposes the friday low at 156.94 and the 156.50 weekly low
Reclaiming the weekly open and ema20, then a close above the 157.71 london high, breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the 157.85 weekly high and the 50% fib into view
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP and MoF intervention data, followed by Tankan late Wednesday, are the next event risks for the range
Contracting range: lower highs 157.85/157.71, higher lows off 156.50.
USD/JPY has been compressing below the 157.85 week high since Friday's London-session drop off 159.03, a move driven by Trump's yen concern. The 156.50 week low printed at Monday's London open, and it has since been followed by higher lows at the 156.99 Monday low and today's dip toward the 157.20 weekly open. London's push to the 157.71 session high stalled just under the 50% retracement of the 159.03–156.50 fall and reversed in a single bar, leaving price back beneath EMA(20) near 157.37 with RSI(14) at 45. Intervention signalling from Tokyo is capping rebounds, while firm US yields keep dips shallow.
Support: 157.20, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.37, 157.71, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.20 weekly open and the higher-lows line exposes the 156.99 Monday low
Close above the 157.71 session high and 157.85 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and clears the 50% retracement
Loss of the 156.50 week low would resume the downtrend from 159.03
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Musalem and Waller Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Tankan and MoF intervention data on Wednesday are the key JPY-side risks to the range
10:02 UTC
Rebound from week low, lower high intact · RSI 59 · price 157.659
Higher lows since Monday, pressing range top.
Since Monday's London-open flush to 156.505, the pair has printed higher lows, reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20), and this morning's London push cleared the 157.58 range top that capped Monday's NY session and Tuesday's Asian range. The rebound retraces the 159.03–156.505 slide that followed Friday's Trump-driven drop and now sits between the 38.2% level and the 50% fib. The Monday high at 157.85 is the next overhead reference, with intervention rhetoric capping the topside while hawkish Fed pricing lifts US yields.
Support: 157.58, 157.22
Resistance: 157.77, 157.85, 158.07
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 157.58 would turn the range-top break into a false break
A close above the 157.85 Monday high opens the 61.8% fib near 158.07
Failure to hold the higher-lows line and the 157.22 weekly open would reopen the 156.50 week low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Bowman and Waller Fedspeak today, could materially shift this read
Fresh MoF or Katayama intervention remarks remain a live source of sudden yen strength
Lower highs from Thursday's 159.03 peak against higher lows since Monday's 156.51 week low, forming a contracting range.
The drop from Thursday's 159.03 NY-session high ran through Friday's London-NY hours on intervention rhetoric. It extended at Monday's London open to a 156.51 week low that swept the 156.94 friday low before NY recovered it. Since then the pair has compressed between lower highs and higher lows. The 157.58 range top has capped two attempts, one in Monday's NY session and one in today's Asia session, just above the 38.2% retracement at 157.47. The 157.20 range floor sits beside this week's 157.22 open. Price is pinned to a flat EMA(20) near 157.39 with RSI(14) at 48, reflecting a Fed-hike USD bid offset by yen intervention risk.
Support: 157.20, 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.07
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 range top and the lower-highs line opens the 157.85 monday high and the 61.8% fib at 158.07
Failure to hold the 157.20 range floor breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 156.94 friday low, then the 156.51 week low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing
Japan MoF intervention data and the Tankan survey on Wednesday are event risk for the range edges
08:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 157.41
Lower highs since Thursday; tightening 157.20–157.58 range.
Friday's slide from Thursday's 159.03 NY-session high, triggered by the joint US-Japan intervention warning, reached the 156.94 friday low. Monday's London selloff extended it to the 156.51 week low before NY recovered to the 38.2% fib near 157.47. Since then price has compressed between the 157.21 weekly open and the 157.58 tuesday high, with price sitting on a flat EMA(20) near 157.40, below EMA(50) near 157.55, and RSI(14) neutral around 54 as firm US yields keep dips shallow.
Support: 157.21, 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.07
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 tuesday high breaks the lower-high line and exposes the 157.85 monday high
Acceptance above the 157.85 monday high shifts focus to the 61.8% fib at 158.07
Close back below the 157.21 weekly open reopens the 156.94 friday low and the 156.51 week low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak (Musalem, Bowman, Waller) could break the compression
Wednesday MoF intervention data could materially shift the read on the 159.00 cap
07:02 UTC
Lower from 159.03, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 157.495
Lower highs vs higher lows, narrowing range.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 top. Friday's NY-session slide and Monday's London-open dip reached the 156.51 week low, a false break of the 156.94 friday low that was quickly reclaimed as Mimura and Katayama's intervention warnings offset a firm USD. Higher lows off the week low and a 157.58 lower high have since squeezed price into a narrowing range around the weekly open, with Tuesday's Asia session boxed 157.20–157.58 and price sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 159.03–156.51 drop, above EMA(20) near 157.41 but just under EMA(50) around 157.54, RSI(14) mid-50s.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.77, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 157.77 fib 50% and 157.85 week high
Loss of 157.20 (Tuesday low, near the weekly open) breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the friday low at 156.94 back in play
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus afternoon Fedspeak into Waller could materially shift this read
Wednesday MoF intervention data: confirmed yen-buying vs a zero figure is the main JPY swing risk for this range
06:03 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, pausing in a tight range · RSI 45 · price 157.314
Lower highs since Thursday; contracting 157.20–157.58 range above Monday's 156.50 low.
USDJPY opened the week at 157.22 after Friday's slide from Thursday's 159.03 high, then printed a lower low at the 156.50 week low in Monday's London session before NY hours lifted it back to the 157.58 range top, near the 38.2% retracement of the slide. Since then price has compressed between the 157.20 range floor and 157.58, with lower highs and higher lows tightening under the ema20 (157.38) and EMA(50) (~157.54), and RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s. The digest points to Mimura and Katayama intervention warnings offsetting Fed-hike support, which fits the capped rebound.
Support: 157.20, 156.94, 156.50
Resistance: 157.38, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 range top and the lower highs line opens the 157.77 50% retracement and the 157.85 week high
Break below the 157.20 range floor and the higher lows line exposes the 156.94 friday low, then the 156.50 week low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak today could materially shift this read
Wednesday's MoF intervention data and Tankan at 23:50 UTC are the next JPY-side risks to the range
05:03 UTC
Down from Thursday's 159.03 peak, stabilising · RSI 52 · price 157.505
Lower highs from 159.03; contracting 156.50–157.85 range with higher lows since Monday's low.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak. Friday's London-to-NY slide came on Trump's yen concern, and Monday's London-open drop to the 156.50 week low followed escalated Japanese official warnings; demand absorbed both. Price has since compressed between higher lows off 156.50 and the 157.58 lower high, and now sits at the 38.2% retracement of the 159.03–156.50 fib near 157.47, just above EMA(20) at 157.41 and under EMA(50) near 157.55, with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR contracting through the Asia session.
Support: 157.41, 157.22, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.58 lower high, then the 157.85 week high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.00 round number and the 50% fib near 157.77 in play
Failure to hold EMA(20), the higher lows line and the 157.22 weekly open re-exposes the 156.50 week low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus today's heavy Fedspeak slate could resolve the compression during NY hours
MoF intervention data on Wednesday and the Tankan at Wed 23:50 UTC are JPY-side risk to this read
Lower highs since Thursday; higher lows since Monday's flush, narrowing band.
USDJPY has given back most of the week's gains since Thursday's 159.03 peak. Friday's selloff on intervention and Trump yen commentary gave way to a London-open flush to the 156.51 Monday low, which briefly broke Friday's 156.94 low before NY hours recovered it. Since then H1 has compressed between a 157.58 lower high and a rising higher-low trendline, with price pinned at a flat EMA(20) near 157.38 and RSI(14) neutral at 48. Recovery attempts have stalled just above the 38.2% fib of the 159.03–156.51 drop, keeping the 157.85 Monday high as the top of the lower-high sequence.
Support: 157.23, 156.99, 156.51
Resistance: 157.38, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.23 Asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 156.99 higher low, then the 156.51 Monday low
H1 close above the 157.58 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 157.85 Monday high (near the 50% fib) into view
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus today's Fed speaker slate, could break the compression
Wednesday's MoF intervention data and ADP (12:15 UTC) are the next event risks for the range
02:02 UTC
Downtrend from 159.03, stalling into consolidation · RSI 50 · price 157.458
Lower highs from 159.03; higher lows off 156.50 week low compressing under 157.58.
Thursday's double top at 159.03 gave way. Friday's slide from London into the NY open on Tokyo intervention warnings broke the round number at 157.00, and Monday's London session extended the move to the 156.50 week low. Since then, higher lows at 156.85, 156.99 and 157.23 have met a 157.58 lower high that capped both Monday's NY session and Tuesday's Asia session. Price sits at the 38.2% retracement of the drop, between EMA(20) near 157.38 and EMA(50) near 157.55, with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 157.23, 157.00, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 lower high opens the 50% fib near 157.77 and the 157.85 monday high, with the 158.29 friday high beyond
Failure to hold the 157.23 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the round number at 157.00, then the 156.50 week low
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Wed MoF intervention data is a two-way risk to the consolidation
01:03 UTC
Downtrend from Thursday's high, stalling into consolidation · RSI 47 · price 157.362
Lower high below 157.85 week high; Monday's 156.51 low followed by a 156.99 higher low, now compressing under 157.58.
The Wednesday–Thursday advance peaked at 159.03. Friday's NY-session selloff on Tokyo intervention warnings then broke it, and London on Monday extended the drop to a 156.51 week low before NY lifted price back to 157.58. That ny high capped just above the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with EMA(50) near 157.54 overhead. Price has since held above the weekly open at 157.22 after a 156.99 higher low, and is compressing in a 157.30–157.47 Asian range on a flat EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR contracting.
Support: 157.22, 156.99, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 ny high and EMA(50) opens the 50% retracement near 157.77 and the 157.85 week high
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open and the 156.99 higher low exposes the 156.51 week low
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Consumer Confidence, plus Wednesday's MoF intervention data, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 159.03, now compressing in a 157.00–157.58 band.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 week high. Friday's NY-session slide and Monday's London-open drop to the 156.51 Monday low both came on Tokyo-Washington intervention warnings. The NY recovery stalled at the 157.58 NY high, just above the 38.2% fib of the 159.03–156.51 leg and EMA(50) near 157.55, and price has since compressed around EMA(20) at 157.37 with RSI(14) flat near 51, holding above the 157.22 weekly open.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.51
Resistance: 157.37, 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 NY high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence and open the 157.85 Monday high near the 50% fib
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and the 157.00 round number puts the 156.51 Monday low back in play; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tue and Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP Wed and Japan Tankan at 23:50 UTC Sep 30 follow
Any MoF escalation or rate-check reports would likely override the current compression