Lower highs from 159.03, Monday lower low at 156.51, now compressing below the 157.58 NY high.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 NY-session peak. Friday's London-into-NY selloff on intervention warnings ran to 156.94, and Monday's London session dipped briefly below that friday low to a 156.51 week low before demand lifted price back to the 157.58 NY high. Price is now pinned in a tight range just above EMA(20) near 157.37 and the 157.22 weekly open, below EMA(50) near 157.59 and the 38.2% fib at 157.47, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and the 157.85 asia high and 158.29 friday high overhead.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 NY high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs and exposes the 157.85 asia high, then the 158.29 friday high
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open exposes the 156.94 friday low; a break of the 156.51 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS and Fedspeak, then Wed 12:15 UTC ADP and 23:50 UTC BoJ Tankan could materially shift this read
Escalation from Tokyo to rate checks or joint US-Japan action would likely override the compression
Lower highs intact; 156.99–157.58 range since Monday NY.
USDJPY has unwound Thursday's NY-session push to 159.03. The slide ran through Friday's NY session and extended to a 156.50 week low in Monday's London session, as Mimura's joint Tokyo-Washington intervention message hit. The NY rebound off that low stalled at the 157.58 Monday NY high, just above the 38.2% retracement, and printed a higher low at 156.99. Price is holding at 157.40, above EMA(20) and the 157.22 weekly open but below EMA(50) and the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 55 and below the Monday Asia week high at 157.85.
Support: 157.22, 156.99, 156.50
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 Monday NY high and the lower-highs line would put the 157.85 week high and the 50% fib near 157.77 in play
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open and the 156.99 higher low would reopen the 156.50 week low
Tuesday's JOLTS and Fedspeak slate, then Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and the Tankan (23:50 UTC), could materially shift this read
Renewed intervention rhetoric from Mimura or Katayama on any extension toward 158.00 would cap the rebound structure
Lower highs since 159.03; Monday range 156.51–157.85 with intraday higher lows.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak. Friday's slide on the intervention warning extended to a 156.51 monday low into the London open, as hawkish BoJ minutes and Mimura's jawboning lifted the yen. Higher lows through the NY session rebuilt price toward 157.58, but that ny high stalled below the 38.2% retracement of the drop, and price now sits flat on EMA(20) just above the weekly open at 157.22, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.58 ny high and the lower highs line opens the 157.85 monday high and the 50% retracement near 157.77
Loss of the weekly open at 157.22 and the 157.00 round number breaks Monday's higher lows
A break of the 156.51 monday low extends the lower-low sequence from Thursday
JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC), Waller (Tue 19:00 UTC) and Tankan (Wed 23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs higher lows since Monday low; coil 157.00–157.58.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 week high. Friday's intervention warnings from Katayama drove the break through 158.00 into the NY open, and Monday's London session extended the week's drop to a 156.50 monday low. Since then, higher lows above the 157.00 round number and lower highs off the 157.85 asia high have coiled price around EMA(20) at 157.37, with the ema50 at 157.58 capping the NY high just above the 38.2% retrace, while RSI(14) near 47 printed a higher low against the lower price low, a modest bullish divergence.
Support: 157.22, 157.00, 156.505
Resistance: 157.58, 157.85, 158.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 at 157.58 breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 157.85 asia high
Failure to hold the weekly open at 157.22 and then the 157.00 round number puts the 156.50 monday low back in play and resumes the downtrend
Recovery above Friday's 158.29 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence from 159.03
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC, Waller 19:00 UTC, and Japan Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 159.03 double top; price back at EMA(20).
USDJPY printed a double top at 159.03 on Thursday and reversed through Friday on US-Japan intervention jawboning. Monday's hawkish BoJ minutes and Mimura's comments extended the slide to a 156.505 week low into the London open. NY hours recovered to the EMA(20) near 157.37 but stalled at the 157.57 NY high, just above the 38.2% retracement. That leaves a lower high beneath the 157.85 Asia high, with the 157.00 round number holding the afternoon pullback and RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 157.37, 157.00, 156.505
Resistance: 157.566, 157.854, 158.07
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 157.57 NY high and the lower-high trendline opens the 157.85 Asia high and the 50% retracement
Loss of the 157.00 round number reopens the 156.505 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 61.8% fib at 158.07 would negate the post-double-top downtrend read
Hourly closes back below the EMA(20) near 157.37 would return the bounce to the lower-high sequence
Tue JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, Williams/Waller Fedspeak and US-Iran sanctions headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 159.03; rebound capped below EMA50.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's NY-session peak at 159.03. The decline ran through Friday and into Monday's London session, reaching a 156.505 swing low after Mimura's intervention remarks lifted the yen, having briefly traded up to the 157.854 monday high in Asia. The NY rebound stalled at the 157.566 rebound high, just above the 38.2% retracement (157.47) and under EMA(50) near 157.58. Price has since slipped back below the EMA(20) at 157.35 to sit on the weekly open, with RSI(14) at 45 and well off Monday's lows.
Support: 157.219, 156.936, 156.505
Resistance: 157.35, 157.566, 157.854
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.566 rebound high and the lower-high trendline (~157.60) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 157.854 monday high near the 50% retracement
Loss of the weekly open at 157.22 and the rebound trendline (~157.10) turns focus back to the 156.936 friday low
Break below the 156.505 swing low extends the decline's lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 157.35 on a closing basis would neutralise the short-term rejection read
US JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) and Fedspeak from Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, as could further Japanese intervention rhetoric
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 week high. Friday's London-to-NY slide on Katayama's warnings and Monday's London-hours drop to the 156.51 week low after Mimura's intervention remarks drove the move. The rebound from the lows stalled at the 157.57 NY high, just above the 38.2% fib of the 159.03–156.51 leg. Price is now pinned at EMA(20) near 157.37 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, while the weekly open at 157.22 and Friday low at 156.94 frame the floor of Monday's range.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.37, 157.57, 157.85
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes above the ema20 and the 157.57 ny high would signal the pullback is extending into the 50% fib zone
A break above the 157.85 asia high would end the lower-high sequence from Thursday
Failure to hold 157.22 weekly open and 156.94 friday low exposes the 156.51 week low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's JOLTS plus heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Further Mimura/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains a source of sharp downside bars
Lower highs at 159.03 and 157.85; fresh week low 156.51, NY rebound to 157.58.
Thursday's run to 159.03 reversed hard on Friday, and the week opened with an Asia push to a 157.85 week high on firm USD and Fed-hike pricing. The London open then saw a drop to a 156.51 week low after Mimura's intervention remarks. The NY session rebound to a 157.58 session high has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 157.39 and the 157.22 weekly open, but it stalled at the 38.2% retrace of the 159.03–156.51 drop (157.47). Price remains below EMA(50) near 157.70 and the lower-high line, with RSI(14) mid-40s and no recovery above 50.
Support: 157.39, 157.22, 156.51
Resistance: 157.58, 157.70, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 week high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% retrace of the 159.03–156.51 drop at 158.07
Rejection under EMA(50) and the lower-high line near 157.63 keeps the bounce corrective
Loss of the ema20 and weekly open at 157.22 puts the 156.51 week low back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Tuesday's JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Any escalation in Tokyo intervention rhetoric could reinforce supply on rallies
15:02 UTC
Downtrend from Thursday's high, NY rebound in progress · RSI 50 · price 157.555
Lower highs and lower lows since the 159.03 double top; price testing the 38.2% retracement.
The Tuesday–Thursday advance stalled at a 159.03 double top on Thursday and reversed hard on Friday. The decline extended in Monday's London session to a 156.51 low as Mimura's intervention warnings hit, after the Asia bounce stalled at the 157.85 Monday high, leaving a clean lower-highs sequence. The NY session has lifted price back above EMA(20) to 157.55, into the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop and just under EMA(50) near 157.63, with RSI(14) recovering to 50 from the mid-30s.
Support: 157.22, 156.51
Resistance: 157.85, 158.07, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 158.07 fib 61.8 retracement
Failure back below ema20 and the 157.22 weekly open would expose the 156.51 monday low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Renewed Tokyo intervention rhetoric keeps the 159.03 week high as the double top ceiling
Lower highs and lower lows, basing on a 156.85 shelf.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 NY-session peak. Friday's slide on Katayama's joint-FX remarks and Monday's London-open drop to the 156.51 week low, after Mimura's intervention warning, extended the Thursday-to-Monday drop to about 250 pips. Price has since held a 156.85 shelf, but rebounds are stalling just below the weekly open at 157.22 and EMA(20) near 157.34. RSI(14) sits near 39 and price holds only just above the 23.6% retracement.
Support: 156.85, 156.505
Resistance: 157.22, 157.34, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above 157.85, the Monday Asia lower high, breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Recovery of the weekly open and ema20 at 157.22–157.34 would signal the shelf is turning into a base
Loss of the 156.85 shelf exposes the 156.505 week low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift Oct-hike pricing and this read
Any confirmed intervention or rate-check headlines could gap price through the week low
Lower highs and lower lows; basing near Friday low.
H1 has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 week high. Around the London open, Mimura's intervention message drove a break of the friday low to a 156.51 session low before price recovered to 157.00. Price now holds below the weekly open at 157.22 and the ema20 near 157.36, RSI(14) is around 36 after the drop, and the Asia high at 157.85 stands as the latest lower high.
Support: 156.94, 156.50
Resistance: 157.22, 157.36, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the friday low at 156.94 reopens the session low at 156.50
Recovery through the weekly open at 157.22 and the ema20 at 157.36 would soften the lower-highs read; the 23.6% fib at 157.10 is the first hurdle
A move above the asia high at 157.85 would break the lower-highs trendline sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's JOLTS (f/c 7.23M) could shift USD tone
Further intervention rhetoric from Mimura or Katayama could materially extend the move
Lower highs from 159.03; fresh lower low at 156.51 Monday, bounce capped below weekly open.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's 159.03 peak, with both legs lower coming in London hours: Friday on Katayama's joint-FX message, then again this morning as Mimura's comments reversed the Asia-session push to 157.85 (the asia high) and set a fresh week low at 156.51. Price holds below the ema20 near 157.36 and the weekly open at 157.22, with the post-drop bounce stalling around the 23.6% fib of the 159.03–156.51 decline near 157.10. RSI(14) sits near 34 but formed a higher low against Monday's lower price low, a bullish divergence from Friday's deeply oversold reading.
Support: 156.94, 156.51
Resistance: 157.22, 157.36, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 (157.36) and weekly open (157.22) would challenge the downtrend read; the lower highs line and the asia high at 157.85 cap structure above.
Sustained trade below the friday low (156.94) puts the week low at 156.51 back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 155.20 triangle base.
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC), plus any further MoF/Mimura intervention language, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 159.03, fresh week low at 156.51.
Thursday's 159.03 top gave way to a two-session slide as intervention warnings and hawkish BoJ minutes lifted the yen. Monday's Asia session high at 157.85 stalled beneath the lower-highs trendline, and the move into the London open printed a fresh week low at 156.51. Price has recovered to just above Friday's low near 156.94 but sits below the weekly open at 157.22 and EMA(20) near 157.40, with RSI(14) around 41 and the rebound retracing only about 20% of the 159.03-156.51 drop.
Support: 156.936, 156.505
Resistance: 157.219, 157.40, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 157.22 and ema20 near 157.40 would soften the lower-highs read
Failure to hold Friday's low at 156.94 puts the week low at 156.51 back in focus
A break of the week high at 157.85 would clear the lower-highs trendline from 159.03
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, then JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC, could shift the read via US yields
Further MoF or joint-intervention headlines remain a standing risk to this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 159.03 week high; Monday Asia rebound rejected below 50% retracement.
USDJPY has printed lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 159.03 week high. Japanese intervention warnings drove Friday's NY-session slide, and the move extended into Monday. The Asia rebound after the BoJ minutes stalled at the 157.85 asia high, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the Thu–Mon drop fib, before London-open selling pushed through Friday's low to a 156.50 session low. Price now sits below the 157.22 weekly open and ema20 near 157.30 with RSI(14) near 40, holding marginally above the 156.94 friday low.
Support: 156.94, 156.505
Resistance: 157.22, 157.30, 157.854
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.22 weekly open and ema20 would challenge the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 156.50 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 157.85 asia high negates the downtrend structure
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
Further MoF/US intervention rhetoric remains a headline risk for sharp moves
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower low printed at London open · RSI 38 · price 156.929
Lower highs from 159.03, broken Friday low being retested from below.
USD/JPY has unwound the Tue–Thu climb to 159.03. Friday's NY-session slide on Katayama's intervention warnings turned the structure to lower highs, and Monday's Asia bounce stalled at the monday high of 157.85 before London open sold it through the weekly open at 157.22 and the friday low to a new week low at 156.51. Price now sits below the ema20 (~157.49) and ema50 with RSI(14) near 38, retesting the broken friday low at 156.94 from beneath.
Support: 156.51, 156.00
Resistance: 156.94, 157.22, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the friday low at 156.94 and the weekly open at 157.22 would mark the sub-157 break as a false break
Failure to hold the week low at 156.51 exposes the 156.00 round number
38.2% of the 159.03–156.51 drop sits near 157.47, in confluence with the ema20; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A close above the 157.85 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline from 159.03
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today, plus live MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 157.85 under the 159.03 double top; price retesting Friday's low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Thursday's double top at 159.03. Friday's NY-session slide to 156.94 came after Katayama's intervention warnings. Monday's Asia bounce met rejection at the 157.85 Asia high, near the 38.2% retracement of Friday's drop. London-open selling then took price back below the weekly open at 157.22 and EMA(20) at 157.56, with RSI(14) near 34 and the Friday low and Tuesday low at 156.82 just below.
Support: 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.22, 157.56, 157.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 156.94 extends the lower-low sequence toward the tuesday low at 156.82
Recovery back above the weekly open at 157.22 and ema20 at 157.56 would neutralise the London-open break
Close above the asia high at 157.85, the 38.2-50% zone of Friday's drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
MoF/Katayama rate-check or intervention headlines could trigger a disorderly yen spike
Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak from Musalem, Goolsbee and Williams could shift October hike odds and this read
Lower high at 157.85 under a 159.03 double top; price below both EMAs.
USD/JPY climbed from Tuesday's 156.82 tue low to a 159.03 double top in Thursday's NY session, then gave back almost the whole move on Friday as Katayama's intervention warnings hit, with the drop bottoming at the 156.94 friday low into the NY open. Monday's Asia-session rebound after the BoJ minutes was capped at the 157.85 monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of Friday's drop. Price has slipped back below the ema20 at 157.63 and EMA(50) near 157.81, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.63, 157.85, 157.98
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 monday high and the 50% retrace at 157.98 would reclaim both EMAs and neutralise the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 157.22 weekly open exposes the friday low at 156.94 and the tue low at 156.82
MoF/Katayama intervention rhetoric remains live and can override the chart structure
Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams), then Wednesday's ADP/PCE and the Tankan, could shift the read on the Fed-BoJ rate gap
Double top at 159.03, lower high 158.29 and lower low 156.94; Monday higher low at 157.42.
The rally from Tuesday's 156.85 low ended in a double top at the 159.03 week high during Thursday's NY session. Friday's sell-off began in London and accelerated into the first hour of NY, after FM Katayama pledged 'bold action' on the yen, putting in a lower high at 158.29 and a low of 156.94. Dip-buyers stepped in from the weekly open at 157.22 in Monday's Asia session, but the rebound stalled at the 157.85 Monday high, where EMA(50) sits just above the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off; price is now pinned on EMA(20) with RSI(14) at 48.
Support: 157.42, 157.22, 156.94
Resistance: 157.85, 158.29, 159.03
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 157.85 Monday high and EMA(50) opens the 50% retracement near 157.98 and the 158.29 lower high
Failure to hold the 157.42 higher low exposes the weekly open at 157.22, with the Friday low at 156.94 below
MoF or Katayama remarks, or rate-check reports, could trigger fast yen spikes that override this structure
Tuesday's Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
Recovery toward the 159.03 week high would bring intervention rhetoric back into focus
Lower high at 159.03 then lower low at 156.94; Monday rebound pausing at 38.2% fib.
Thursday's NY-session push to 159.03 met rejection. Friday's intervention-fear selloff, after Katayama's remarks, then unwound the Wednesday–Thursday gains into a 156.94 friday low during NY hours, just above Tuesday's 156.82 low. Monday's Asia session opened at the 157.22 weekly open and dip demand lifted price to the 157.85 monday high, where it now consolidates on the 38.2% level of the friday drop fib, with ema20 near 157.68 underneath and EMA50 overhead near 157.90, while RSI(14) around 47 is recovering but still below 50.
Support: 157.68, 157.22, 156.94
Resistance: 157.85, 157.98, 158.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 monday high and the 50% fib at 157.98 opens the path to Friday's 158.29 lower high
Loss of ema20 and the monday higher lows line exposes the 157.22 weekly open
Break of the 156.94 friday low and Tuesday's 156.82 low confirms the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers Tue, ADP/PCE Wed and any fresh MoF jawboning could materially shift this read
Lower high at 159.03, Friday low 156.94, Asia higher lows.
Thursday's London-NY rally stalled at the 159.03 week high. Katayama's 'bold action' warning drove a rejection that slid to the 156.94 Friday low during NY hours. Dip demand at the 157.22 weekly open lifted price through EMA(20) in the Asia session to a 157.85 session high, where it sits just above the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-Friday drop. EMA(50) near 158.1 and the 158.29 lower high remain overhead, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 157.419, 157.219, 156.936
Resistance: 157.854, 158.292, 159.032
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 session high and the 50% fib near 157.98 would shift focus to the 158.29 lower high
Failure to hold the 157.42 asia low exposes the weekly open at 157.22 again
Break of the higher lows line below the weekly open reopens the 156.94 Friday low
A push back toward the 159.03 week high brings MoF intervention rhetoric back into play
Fed speakers Tue, then Wed ADP/PCE and Tankan (23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top at 159.03 broke Friday; Monday bounce stalling near the 38.2% retrace.
Thursday's double top near the 159.03 week high gave way on Friday. Katayama's 'bold action' warning drove a roughly 210-pip slide through London and NY hours to the 156.94 Friday low. Monday's Asia session lifted price from the 157.22 weekly open to a 157.85 Asian high, where it stalled at EMA(50) and the 38.2% retrace of the Thursday–Friday drop. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 157.64 with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.
Support: 157.64, 157.22, 156.94
Resistance: 157.85, 158.29, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 Asian high and EMA(50) opens the 50–61.8% fib zone up to the 158.29 Friday high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 157.64 puts the 157.22 weekly open, then the 156.94 Friday low, back in focus
Tankan (Wed 23:50 UTC) and US ADP/PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Renewed MoF intervention rhetoric caps any approach back toward the 159.03 week high
Double top at 159.03, rebound at 38.2% of Friday's drop.
USD/JPY climbed from Tuesday's 156.82 low to a double top at the 159.03 week high on Thursday. It then gave back almost all of that move in Friday's London-NY slide to the 156.94 friday low, as Katayama's intervention warnings hit on heavy bars into the NY open. Monday's Asia session rebound off the 157.22 weekly open has reached the 38.2% retracement near 157.74. That puts price back above EMA20 at 157.65 but still under EMA50, with RSI(14) at 45 and capped so far by the 157.85 monday high.
Support: 157.65, 157.22, 156.94
Resistance: 157.85, 157.98, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.85 monday high and the 50% fib at 157.98 extends the retracement toward Friday's 158.29 London high
Loss of ema20 at 157.65 puts the 157.22 weekly open back in play
A break of the 156.94 friday low ends the higher lows sequence off Tuesday's 156.82
MoF/Katayama intervention language is a headline risk on any push back toward the 159.03 week high
JOLTS and Fed speakers Tue, then ADP and PCE Wed, could materially shift US yields and this read
After Tuesday's London-open drop to the 156.82 week low, the pair climbed through Wednesday and Thursday to a 159.03 week high. Friday gave the whole move back, falling to the 156.94 friday low from London into the NY open after Katayama's intervention warnings. The Asia session bounce has reclaimed EMA(20) and is testing the 157.84 monday high, which lines up with Thursday's lows and the 38.2% of the friday drop fib, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and EMA(50) sitting just overhead at 157.89.
Support: 157.42, 156.94
Resistance: 157.84, 157.98, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 157.84 monday high and EMA(50) opens the fib 50% at 157.98
Loss of the 157.42 pullback low and the higher lows line re-exposes the 156.94 friday low
Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC ADP and PCE could materially shift this read
Official intervention rhetoric likely intensifies on any return toward the 159.03 week high
A climb from Tuesday's London-hours swing low at 156.82 peaked at the 159.03 week high in Thursday's NY session. Katayama's intervention warnings then drove a near-full unwind on Friday, with the slide accelerating from London into the NY open and holding at 156.94, a higher low above Tuesday. Monday's Asia open lifted from the 157.22 weekly open, but the move stalled at the 157.68 monday high, just under the 38.2% level of the Friday drop fib. Price sits back below EMA(20) near 157.60, with RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 157.22, 156.94, 156.82
Resistance: 157.68, 157.98, 159.03
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 157.68 monday high and EMA(20) reopens the 50% fib at 157.98
Loss of the 157.22 weekly open exposes the 156.94 friday low and 156.82 swing low; a break there ends the higher-low base
Fresh MoF rate-check or 'bold action' headlines could extend the yen bid regardless of structure
Wed ADP/PCE and Tankan are the next catalysts; a return to the 159.03 week high runs into the 159.60 intervention-sensitive zone