USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, lower high in place · RSI 46 · price 157.39
Pullback from 159.03 swing high, lower high at 157.85.
The recovery from the 152.89 low built higher highs and higher lows up to 159.03. Intervention warnings from Tokyo then triggered a rejection there, and the pullback has since set a lower high at 157.85 and a marginal lower swing low at 156.50. Price is holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of that rally, below EMA20 and just under EMA50, with EMA20 still above EMA50. ATR(14) near 50 pips is well below the early-window selloff regime, consistent with a 156.50–157.85 consolidation.
Support: 156.50, 155.96, 155.33
Resistance: 157.85, 158.40, 159.03
What it said to watch
Close below the 156.50 swing low confirms a lower-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib at 155.96, then the 155.33 pivot low
Close above the 157.85 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.40 pivot high
The 158.40–159.03 swing high zone overlaps the area where intervention caution has capped rallies
H4 EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would mark a swing-level shift in momentum
US ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) and Japan Tankan (Wed 23:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Recovery stalling, lower high at 159.03 · RSI 44 · price 157.442
Converging lower highs and higher lows, triangle-like coil.
USDJPY retraced most of the early-September slide from the 160.39 Sept high to the 152.89 Sept low, but the late-month advance stalled at the 159.03 swing high, a second lower high. Price turned back from there despite record US yields as Katayama's intervention warnings weighed. The pullbacks to 156.94 and the 156.51 swing low held near the 38.2% fib and on rising support from mid-month, leaving price coiled between converging lower highs and higher lows. ATR(14) near 50 pips is well below the early-month expansion, and price sits just under EMA20 while hugging EMA50.
Support: 156.505, 155.25, 152.886
Resistance: 157.84, 159.032, 160.391
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 156.51 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 61.8 near 155.25, with the Sept low at 152.89 beyond
Close above the 157.84 lower high reopens the 159.03 swing high; the 160.39 Sept high sits inside the flagged intervention zone
JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak Tue, then Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC, could force a break of the coil either way
13:02 UTC
Rally stalling, rolling over from 159.03 · RSI 41 · price 156.998
Lower high at 157.85 below 159.03; testing prior swing low.
The rally from the 152.89 low stalled with a rejection at the 159.03 swing high. Price has since slipped back below both EMAs after Katayama's joint US-Japan FX jawboning, and printed a lower high at 157.85. The dip to 156.50 briefly undercut the prior swing low near 156.58, and the pair now sits near the 38.2% level of the rally fib, with the 50% fib at 155.96 and the 61.8% fib at 155.23 below. ATR(14) near 50 pips is roughly half the early-window selloff pace, and EMA20 is converging on EMA50 from above.
Support: 156.50, 155.96, 155.23
Resistance: 157.85, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 156.50 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 50% fib at 155.96
Recovery through the 157.85 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the rollover read
An EMA20 cross below EMA50 would flip the swing signal after the rally from 152.89
Intervention rhetoric has capped the approach to the 159.03 swing high and the 160.39 cycle high
JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC and Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, rolling over from 159.03 · RSI 41 · price 157.041
Higher lows since 152.89; lower high at 157.85 now forming.
The recovery from the 152.89 low printed a sequence of higher lows up to the 159.03 swing high. Supply capped the pair there on Katayama's intervention warnings, and Friday's drop took price through the higher-low line toward the 156.94 friday low. Monday's rebound stalled at 157.85, a lower high, and price is back under both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the two averages converging. ATR(14) near 46 pips is well below the early-month selloff regime, and price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the 152.89-159.03 fib.
Support: 156.94, 156.58, 155.96
Resistance: 157.85, 158.45, 159.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 156.94 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.58 higher low and the fib 50% at 155.96
Recovery above the 157.85 lower high reopens the 158.40-158.50 prior highs, with the 159.03 swing high in the MoF intervention zone
EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) would confirm the rollover from 159.03
Fed's Bowman and Cook today and JOLTS Tue could shift US yields and this read
Tankan Wed 23:50 UTC and any MoF rate-check headlines are live JPY risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the 153.24 base; last pullback held above the prior higher low.
Higher-high, higher-low sequence intact since the 153.24 base. Last week's rejection at the 159.03 swing high, driven by Friday's Tokyo intervention warnings, found a swing low at 156.94 near the 38.2% fib of the advance and above the 156.58 higher low, where the rising higher-low trendline also sits. Dip demand returned on Fed-hike pricing and 5%+ US yields, and price now sits just under EMA20 and above EMA50, with ATR(14) near 45 pips versus 100+ pips during the early-month selloff.
Support: 156.94, 156.58
Resistance: 158.40, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 156.94 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the higher-low sequence; losing the 156.58 higher low shifts the read to a range
Recovery through the 158.40 prior cap reopens the 159.03 swing high; the 159.60 to 160.39 window high zone carries intervention and rate-check headline risk
ADP and PCE on Wednesday, plus Tankan on Sep 30 23:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Uptrend from 152.89, first lower low printed · RSI 44 · price 157.527
HH/HL run to 159.03; drop broke 157.80 swing low, above 156.58.
The rebound from the 152.89 early-month low built higher highs and higher lows up to the 159.03 swing high, before Friday's intervention jawboning from Tokyo triggered a rejection. The drop through the 157.80 swing low also broke the rising trendline from mid-month. The pullback has so far held between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the 152.89–159.03 advance, with the friday low at 156.94 and the higher low at 156.58 beneath. Price sits back below the ema20 near 157.86 but above the EMA50, and ATR(14) around 43 pips is well under the early-month selloff regime.
Support: 156.936, 155.96
Resistance: 157.86, 158.398, 159.032
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the ema20 and the prior high at 158.40 would reframe Friday's drop as a pullback within the uptrend
Failure at the higher low 156.58 (near the 38.2% fib) confirms a lower-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib at 155.96
Swing high 159.03 and the 159.60–160 intervention zone cap the structure; official rhetoric there can produce sharp JPY moves
US ADP and PCE (Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC), then the Tankan (Sep 30 23:50 UTC), could materially shift this read