Higher lows since Friday's NFP low compressing against lower highs below 158.30.
USD/JPY has printed rising lows since Friday's post-NFP drop to 156.95. Monday's Asia-session low at 157.44 and Tuesday's London dip to 157.91 both held, while the week high at 158.30 capped Monday's NY push and a Tuesday London test at 158.25, leaving a line of lower highs overhead. GPIF headlines lifted the pair back over the 158 pivot despite softer Treasury yields, and Tuesday's NY session stayed just above it and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 55 and hourly ATR contracting to about 13 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45, 158.70
What it said to watch
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%): a hot print could break the rising lows line and the 158 pivot
An H1 close above the week high at 158.30 opens Thursday's prior high at 158.45 and the 158.70 range top
Failure to hold the 157.82 weekly open, near the 38.2% of the NFP rebound, exposes the Monday low at 157.44
The rising lows line (near 158.08) and the lower highs line (near 158.26) are converging; an H1 close outside either ends the consolidation
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
22:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 52 · price 158.077
Higher lows against slightly lower highs inside the 157.44–158.30 week range.
Since Monday's open the pair has held a 157.44–158.30 band. Higher lows off the Asia-session week low meet a slightly lower Tuesday high at 158.25, squeezing price around the 158.00 round number. Tuesday's dip held at 157.77, the tue low and the 38.2% level of the fib on Friday's NFP swing, before a GPIF report lifted the pair back above 158.00 in London; through NY hours price sat at 158.05–158.20, a pip under EMA(20) near 158.09 and above EMA(50) near 158.02, with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) near 12 pips as the range tightens.
Support: 158.00, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.25, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 158.45 prior high
H1 close below the 157.77 tue low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 157.44 week low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%): a hot print puts the 158.00 round number and the higher-lows line under pressure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 158.096
Higher lows from NFP low meeting lower highs from 158.45.
USD/JPY has coiled around the 158.00 psych pivot since the week opened near 157.82. Higher lows off Friday's 156.95 NFP low are meeting lower highs from Thursday's 158.45 prior high, forming a pennant. Tuesday's 157.77 tue low held the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP rebound, and the GPIF report lifted the pair back over 158.00 into London hours. Price now sits on EMA(20), RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR(14) has contracted to about 14 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.25, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.25 tue high and the 158.30 week high breaks the falling line, with the 158.45 prior high next
H1 close back below 158.00 psych and the rising line (London low 157.91) exposes the 157.77 tue low, then the 157.44 week low
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could resolve the pennant
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tightening range, higher lows under flat 158.30 cap.
Since the 157.82 weekly open, USD/JPY has printed higher lows at 157.44, 157.57, 157.77 and the 157.91 tuesday low, rising into a flat ceiling at the 158.30 week high. The higher-lows trendline now sits near 158.00. Tuesday's London dip to 157.91 was absorbed, and the GPIF report lifted the pair back above 158.00. Price holds above flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 158.00–158.10, with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR(14) contracting to about 15 pips. The 157.44 week low held at the 61.8% retracement of the NFP swing, and Thursday's 158.45 thu high caps the window.
Support: 157.91, 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline near 158.00 and the 157.91 tuesday low breaks the rising-low sequence
H1 close above the 158.30 week high exposes the 158.45 thu high and the 158.70 range edge
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT tonight (f/c 3.7%) could break the compression either way
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; loss of the 157.82 weekly open reopens the 157.44 week low
19:02 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 53 · price 158.116
Higher lows vs lower highs, contracting range.
Since Friday's NFP washout to 156.95, USD/JPY has coiled around the 158 pivot. Higher lows at 157.44, today's 157.77 Asian low and 157.91 are pressing against lower highs at the 158.45 prior high, Monday's 158.30 week high and today's 158.25 London lower high. Price sits marginally above flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 53, and the GPIF headline lifted the pair back over 158.00 into NY hours even as Treasury yields slipped.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.77
Resistance: 158.25, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.91 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.77 asian low, near the 38.2% of the NFP rebound
H1 close above the 158.30 week high clears the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.45 prior high back in play
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could resolve the compression either side of the 158 pivot
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the US 10y yield
18:02 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 52 · price 158.105
Higher lows since NFP low against lower highs from Thursday's peak.
Since Friday's soft-payrolls spike to 156.945, the pair has printed a series of higher lows along a rising trendline (rising tl): Monday's Asia-session week low at 157.436, then 157.767 and 157.911 today. Tuesday's Asia dip held the 38.2% fib of the NFP rebound, and GPIF headlines pushed price back above 158.00. Highs are fading, though: Monday's NY-session week high at 158.295 and the tue high at 158.245 both sit below last Thursday's 158.451 London-open prior high. Price is pinned near the 158.00 pivot, just above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 157.911, 157.767, 157.436
Resistance: 158.245, 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%): a hot print puts the rising tl at 157.91 and the 38.2% fib at 157.767 in play
H1 close below the 157.436 week low breaks the higher-low sequence and the pennant read
H1 close above the 158.295 week high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.451 prior high
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher lows into flat-to-lower highs below 158.30.
USD/JPY has rotated around the 158 pivot since the week opened at 157.82. Monday's Asia-session dip to the 157.44 week low was bought back quickly, and NY hours then drove the 158.30 week high, after Friday's NFP-driven flush to 156.95 had already been fully retraced. Since then a sequence of higher lows (157.57, 157.77, 157.91) has met marginally lower highs near 158.25, compressing price above EMA(20) with RSI(14) holding mid-50s as the GPIF headline kept the pair above 158 despite the hawkish Ueda tone.
Support: 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.91 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and puts the 61.8% of Monday's swing near 157.77 back in play
Close above the 158.30 week high clears the lower highs and opens the path to the 158.45 prior high
Japan Aug Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT tonight (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could push price decisively off the 158 pivot
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; failure to hold the 157.44 week low would end the higher-low sequence
15:02 UTC
Sideways-to-firmer, higher lows under a cap · RSI 58 · price 158.098
Since Sunday's 157.82 week open, USD/JPY has carved higher lows off Monday's Asia-session 157.44 trough. Supply has capped rallies at the 158.30 week high in Monday's NY session and again in London today, part of a shallow line of lower highs back to last Thursday's 158.45 prior high. Ueda gave no October signal and the yen's gains faded. Today's London dip to the 157.91 higher low drew demand back above the 158.00 pivot, with price just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 58, while the recovery from Friday's NFP low at 156.95 holds above its 38.2% retracement.
Support: 158.00, 157.91, 157.80
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.30 week high breaks the lower-highs cap and opens the 158.45 prior high
Loss of the 157.91 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the week open and fib 38.2 confluence near 157.80
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT today (f/c 3.7%, prev 4.7%) could push price out of the compression
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Since Friday's NFP spike to 156.95, lows have stepped higher: 157.44 in Monday's Asia session, 157.77 in today's Asia low (near the 38.2% fib of the NFP-to-week-high leg) and 157.91 in London. Highs have slipped from Thursday's 158.45 range top to the 158.30 week high and today's 158.25, so the move is tightening into a pennant along the rising trendline and the lower highs line. Price is pinned to the 158 pivot just above a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 56 after Ueda's comments failed to hold yen gains, and ATR(14) is down to ~19 pips.
Support: 157.911, 157.767
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.91 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 157.77 asia low back in focus
H1 close above the 158.30 week high clears the lower highs line and exposes the 158.45 range top
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC and Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could resolve the coil around the 158 pivot
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the larger event risk for this week's range
13:02 UTC
Choppy recovery, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 55 · price 158.115
Higher lows since Monday Asia, highs capped below 158.30.
Friday's NFP flush to 156.95 was fully retraced by Monday's NY session as record US yields kept USD bid. Since Monday's 157.44 Asia low the pair has printed higher lows at 157.57, then the 157.77 swing low, then today's 157.91 low, while highs stall at or below the 158.30 week high, compressing around 158.00. Today's London dip after the GPIF headlines found demand near the rising trendline. Price is back above EMA(20) near 158.06 with RSI(14) around 55, and the 157.77 swing low sits at the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP rally.
Support: 158.06, 157.911, 157.767
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 158.30 week high breaks the cap and puts the 158.45 prior high from Thursday in play
Close below today's low at 157.91 breaks the rising trendline and shifts focus to the 157.77 swing low
Loss of the 157.77 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and opens the 157.44 Monday low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could move USD during NY hours
Japan August wages at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) could jolt the Asia session; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Holding vs losing EMA(20) on pullbacks shows whether the compression resolves higher
12:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 157.999
Lower highs from 158.45 against higher lows from the NFP low.
USD/JPY has compressed between lower highs from last week's 158.45 prior high and higher lows off Friday's NFP-driven 156.95 spike low, with GPIF headlines lifting the pair back above 158.00 through today's Asia and London sessions. Tuesday's high at 158.25 stalled under Monday's 158.30 week high, and the latest bar slipped back below EMA(20) near 158.05, leaving price pinned at the 158.00 pivot with RSI(14) flat near 51. Tuesday's low at 157.77 held at the 38.2% retracement of the NFP low to week high swing, just under the 157.82 weekly open.
Support: 157.815, 157.767, 157.436
Resistance: 158.05, 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly open at 157.82 and the higher-lows line breaks the compression; failure to hold the tuesday low at 157.77 exposes the monday low at 157.44
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 158.05 and then the 158.30 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the prior high at 158.45
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift USD tone around the 158.00 pivot
Japan August Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7% YoY) could reprice BoJ October-hike odds; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC follow
11:03 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 61 · price 158.203
Compression: higher lows since NFP vs 158.30–158.45 lower highs.
USD/JPY has rotated between 157.20 and 158.45 since Thursday's Asia-session jump on the Tankan miss set the week high. Friday's NY-session flush to 156.95 on the weak NFP was reclaimed within hours. Lows have stepped up since: the 157.44 monday low, then 157.77 in Tuesday's Asia session, near the weekly open and the 38.2% of the wed-thu rally. Highs are flattening into a lower highs sequence capped by the 158.30 monday high. Price is back above the 158 pivot and EMA(20) after Tokyo-hours gains around Ueda's speech, with RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 157.80, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 monday high and the lower highs line exposes the 158.45 week high
Loss of the 158 pivot and a break of the weekly open near 157.80 would undercut the higher lows sequence
Failure to hold the 157.44 monday low reverts the read to the broader 157.20–158.45 range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours, then Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%), could break the compression
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
157.44–158.45 range, higher lows pressing range top.
USDJPY has rotated inside a 157.40–158.45 range since Thursday, but lows have stepped higher since Friday's NFP dip to 156.95, and the post-NFP rally is now pressing the 158.30 Monday high. GPIF headlines and firm US yields lifted the pair back above the 158.00 pivot from late Asia into London open, with price holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 61. Thursday's 158.45 week high caps the top of the structure.
Support: 158.00, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 Monday high, then the 158.45 week high, breaks the range top
Loss of the 158.00 pivot and the 157.77 Tuesday low breaks the higher lows trendline
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT: a print near 4.0% could drag price back toward the 157.44 Monday low
Fed's Williams/Bowman today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows pressing into 158.30–158.45 lower highs.
USDJPY has recovered from Friday's NFP-driven dip to 156.95 into a 157.44–158.45 range. This week has printed higher lows at the 157.44 Monday low and the 157.77 higher low, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the NFP-low leg. Asia and early London lifted price back above the 158 pivot today on GPIF headlines and record US yields, but the 158.30 Monday high and 158.45 week high still form a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 61 and price over both EMAs.
Support: 157.767, 157.436
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.30 Monday high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 158.45 week high
Loss of the 158 pivot followed by a break of the 157.77 higher low ends this week's higher-low sequence, with the 157.44 Monday low next
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could reprice US yields and shift the read during NY hours
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT (f/c 3.7%) is the main risk to the 158 pivot during the Asia session
Contracting range: higher lows vs lower highs around 158.00.
Friday's payrolls miss knocked the pair to 156.95, but the rebound from the NFP low has held as US yields stayed firm. Since Monday's 157.82 open the pair has printed higher lows: the 157.44 weekly low, then Tuesday's Asia-session low at 157.77, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rebound. Highs are slipping: the 158.30 weekly high set in Monday's NY session sits below Thursday's high at 158.45. Price is back above the 158.00 psych pivot and a flattening EMA(20) near 158.03, with RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR compressing.
Support: 158.00, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.77 tue low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.44 weekly low (61.8% of the NFP rebound)
Sustained acceptance above the 158.30 weekly high clears the lower-highs line and opens Thursday's 158.45 high
Repeated two-way trade through the 158.00 psych pivot keeps the contracting range read intact
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then Japan wages at 23:30 GMT, could break the range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday vs lower highs from Thursday.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.40–158.45 range since Thursday. Friday's NFP drop to 156.95 was fully reclaimed as 10y UST yields near 5.34% kept the dollar bid. Since Monday's open the pair has printed higher lows in the Asia session, first the monday low at 157.44 near the 61.8% of the nfp swing, then the asia low at 157.77 on the 38.2%. Highs meanwhile step down from the thu high at 158.45 to the monday high at 158.30, compressing price just above the 158 pivot and EMA(20) with RSI(14) mid-cycle near 57.
Support: 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high at 158.30 and then the thu high at 158.45 breaks the lower-highs line and the range top; intervention commentary has clustered toward 158.70
Failure to hold the asia low at 157.77 breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the monday low at 157.44
Sustained trade back below the 158 pivot and EMA(20) would shift the compression lower within the range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then Japan Aug wages (23:30 GMT) could resolve the compression either way
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next high-impact risk for the range
06:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 158.064
The NFP rebound from 156.95 has printed higher lows on Monday and again in today's Asia session. The tuesday low at 157.77 held at the 38.2% retracement of that move, while the monday high at 158.30, set into the London-NY transition, sits below Thursday's 158.45 week high. Price is oscillating around a flat ema20 near 157.98 with RSI(14) parked around 50, consistent with the digest's picture of record US yields underpinning the pair and BoJ hike talk plus intervention risk capping it. The Asia session stalled at the 158.21 asian high, keeping the pair coiled between the higher lows and lower highs trendlines.
Support: 157.98, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.21, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT, the first since the September hike, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 157.77 tuesday low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 157.44 monday low
H1 acceptance above the 158.21 asian high and the 158.30 monday high puts the 158.45 week high back in play, with intervention risk flagged toward 158.70
Japan Labor Cash Earnings at 23:30 GMT and FOMC minutes on Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
05:03 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building into 158.00 · RSI 57 · price 158.138
158.00 pivot inside a 157.44–158.45 range, with higher lows since Monday's Asia session.
USDJPY opened the week at 157.82 and has rotated around the 158.00 pivot. Monday's NY-session push to the 158.30 week high faded into Asia as hawkish BoJ headlines ran into a 5.34% US 10y. Lows have stepped up from the 157.44 week low to the 157.77 swing low, which held at the 61.8% level of the Monday rally fib. Price is back above EMA(20) near 158.00, with RSI(14) in the high 50s, while supply has capped every attempt below the 158.45 prior high since Thursday.
Support: 158.00, 157.767, 157.436
Resistance: 158.295, 158.451, 158.70
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read; a clear October hike signal would test the higher-low trendline
An H1 close back below the 158.00 pivot/EMA(20) returns price to the lower half of the range, toward the 157.77 swing low
A break of the 157.44 week low invalidates the higher-low sequence
A close above the 158.30 week high opens the 158.45 prior high, then the 158.70 band top flagged for intervention rhetoric
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next high-impact USD risk for the range
Compressing range around 158.00 pivot, higher lows since NFP.
Since Friday's NFP low at 156.95, USD/JPY has printed higher lows at 157.44 (the Monday low, in the Asia session) and 157.77 (today's asian low, near the 38.2% of the NFP-to-Monday fib). Highs keep stepping down from the 158.45 last wk high, so price is coiling around the 158 pivot. Monday's NY push to the 158.30 monday high faded back under 158.00 as the yield gap met BoJ caution, leaving price on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 49 ahead of Ueda.
Support: 157.77, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.00, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda at 06:35 GMT could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt puts the monday low at 157.44 and the 61.8% fib in play
H1 close below the asian low at 157.77 breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 157.44 area
Failure to hold 157.44 exposes the nfp low at 156.95
H1 close above the monday high at 158.30 clears the lower-highs line and exposes the last wk high at 158.45
Fed's Williams and Bowman today and FOMC Minutes Wed could reset the yield-gap driver behind the 158 pivot
03:03 UTC
Range-bound, compressing around 158.00 · RSI 50 · price 158.022
Lower highs from Thursday and higher lows since NFP inside a 157.44–158.30 week range.
USDJPY is compressing between lower highs from Thursday's 158.45 prior high and higher lows since Friday's NFP drop to 156.95, with the 10y UST yield gap keeping dips shallow. Monday's push to the 158.30 week high during the London-NY transition faded, and Tuesday's Asia low at 157.77 held near the 38.2% retracement of the NFP rebound. Price sits back above the ema20 near 157.94 with RSI(14) flat around 50, as the 158.00 handle keeps getting crossed both ways.
Support: 157.94, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks at 06:35 GMT, his first remarks since the Sept hike, and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 157.77 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.44 week low
An H1 close above the 158.30 week high clears the lower-highs line and opens the path to the 158.45 prior high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; the US 10y near 5.34% remains the anchor for the range
Lower highs from 158.45 inside a 157.40–158.45 range, rotating around 158.00.
USDJPY has rotated around the 158.00 psych pivot since Thursday's 158.45 high. Dips to 157.22 in Thursday's NY session and 156.95 on Friday's NFP miss were both bought back, with the 10y UST near 5.34% keeping the yield gap wide. Monday's leg ran from the 157.44 week low to the 158.30 week high, then faded after the NY open. The Asia session pullback held the 157.77 asia low at the 61.8% retrace of that leg, leaving price just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 50 and the lower highs from 158.45 intact.
Support: 157.77, 157.57, 157.44
Resistance: 158.00, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish October hint would put the 157.57 Monday swing low and the 157.44 week low in play
H1 close above the 158.30 week high and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 158.45 prior high, where intervention rhetoric caps
Failure to hold the 157.77 asia low and the 61.8% retrace of Monday's leg confirms the leg has unwound
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and the US 10y near 5.34% remain the yield-gap driver for the range
01:02 UTC
Range-bound after last week's rally, highs compressing · RSI 41 · price 157.821
Lower high at 158.30 vs 158.45, higher lows from 156.95; coiling around 158.00.
Last week's impulse from 156.38 stalled at the 158.45 prior high in Thursday's London session. Since then the pair has rotated around 158.00, with the Friday NFP miss to the 156.95 nfp low and Monday's Asia-session dip to the 157.44 weekly low both fully bought back. Monday's NY push capped at the 158.30 week high, a lower high, and price has drifted back below the ema20 into the Asia session with RSI(14) softening near 41. Supply is capping each push above 158.00 while dips toward 157.50 keep finding demand, so the swing range is compressing.
Support: 157.57, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 157.93, 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
BoJ Ueda speech at 06:35 GMT is the main catalyst for a break of the 157.44–158.30 range this session
H1 close back above the ema20 near 157.93 restores the rotation toward the 158.30 week high
H1 close above the 158.30 week high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 158.45 prior high (intervention-risk area) back in play
Loss of the 157.57 swing low exposes the 157.44 weekly low and the 50% fib near 157.41; below that, the 156.95 nfp low marks the range floor
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) remarks could shift the US yield-gap driver later today
157.44–158.45 range with lower highs and higher lows.
Since Wednesday's rally from 156.38 into the 158.45 week high during Thursday's Asia session, USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.44–158.45 range. Friday's NFP miss produced a false break to the 156.95 nfp low that was fully reclaimed in NY hours, while 10y UST yields near 5.34% kept the dollar supported. Monday's NY-open push stalled at 158.30, a lower high versus Thursday, and price is now pinned to EMA(20) just above the weekly open at 157.82 with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR compressing.
Support: 157.82, 157.44, 156.95
Resistance: 158.30, 158.45
What it said to watch
BoJ Governor Ueda speaks Tue 06:35 UTC; a clear near-term hike signal could take price through the weekly open toward the monday low at 157.44
An H1 close above the monday high at 158.30 brings the 158.45 week high into play, where intervention rhetoric typically intensifies
Failure to hold 157.44, the monday low near the 50% fib of the rally, exposes the nfp low at 156.95 and breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Oct hike pricing