Higher lows vs lower highs inside a 157.44–158.51 week range.
The yield-driven USD bid carried the pair from Monday's 157.44 week low to a 158.51 week high in Wednesday's Asian session, right at the 200-day. Rejection there followed BoJ member Sato's hike comments, and London sold it to the 157.85 wed low, the 61.8% retracement of the Mon-Wed advance. Price is now near 158.00, below the ema20 (~158.10) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39. The hawkish FOMC minutes and the 10y auction failed to lift price back through the wed ny high at 158.40. Higher lows since Monday against lower highs since Wednesday leave a tightening range above the 157.82 weekly open.
Support: 157.85, 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.10, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.85 wed low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.82 weekly open, then the 157.44 week low
Recovery above the ema20 at 158.10 and the lower highs line toward the 158.40 wed ny high would reopen the 158.51 week high
Thu Fed Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
158.51 week high and 200-day remain the cap; a clean break there changes the range read
157.44–158.51 week range; rising lows meet lower highs since Wednesday.
From the 157.82 weekly open, Monday's Asia-session dip to the 157.44 week low was absorbed. The rising-lows line then carried price to a 158.51 week high in Wednesday's Asia session, with firm US yields behind the move. Rejection there after BoJ's Sato backed gradual hikes left a 158.40 lower high in London. The NY-session fade has price back under the EMA20 near 158.12, RSI(14) in the low 40s, and the Wednesday low at 157.85 sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally.
Support: 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.12, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.85 Wed low breaks the rising-lows line and the 61.8% fib, reopening the 157.44 week low
Recovery above the EMA20 at 158.12 and a close through the 158.40 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 158.51 week high back into play
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC, Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and the 30-year auction could shift the yield-driven USD read
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is a minor risk to the range
21:03 UTC
Range with rising lows, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 158.078
Higher lows since Monday under a 158.51 week high.
USDJPY has held a 157.44–158.51 band since Monday's 157.82 open. Lows have stepped higher each day: Monday's Asia-session week low at 157.44, Tuesday at 157.77 and Wednesday's London dip to 157.85 (wed low). Wednesday's Asia push to the 158.51 week high met rejection after BoJ member Sato's hawkish remarks, leaving lower highs through NY hours. The post-FOMC Minutes dip stalled at 157.90, near the 38.2% fib of the rally from Friday's jobs-data low. Price now sits just under ema20 near 158.14 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, and the firm-yield USD backdrop has not produced a break of the range top.
Support: 157.90, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.14, 158.30, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.85 wed low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.44 week low
Close back above ema20 and the 158.30 monday high clears the lower-highs line from the week high
H1 close above the 158.51 week high invalidates the range read
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 157.90 opens a deeper retracement toward the 50% level near 157.73
20:03 UTC
Range-bound, momentum fading from the week high · RSI 45 · price 158.047
157.44–158.51 week range; rising lows since Monday against a lower high at 158.40.
USD/JPY has held a 157.44–158.51 range since Monday's 157.82 open. Lows have stepped higher each day from Monday's Asia-session week low. Wednesday's Asia push to the 158.51 week high met rejection at the 200DMA zone as BoJ's Sato backed further hikes, and the pair then slipped below a flat EMA(20) near 158.13 after a 158.40 lower high. Price dipped to 157.90 around the FOMC Minutes, where the rising lows held, and the 61.8% fib of the week's advance at 157.85 sits just beneath, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 157.90, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.13, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.85 61.8% fib breaks the rising lows and exposes the week low at 157.44
Recovery through ema20 and the 158.40 lower high puts the 158.51 week high / 200DMA back in focus
Thu: Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this range read
19:02 UTC
Higher lows since Friday, momentum fading off the week high · RSI 37 · price 157.945
Rising lows from Friday's soft-payrolls dip near 156.95 carried USDJPY from the 157.44 Monday low to a 158.51 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. Price was rejected at the 200DMA there, and the NY session then traded lower highs near 158.40. The FOMC Minutes hour pushed price back to the rising-lows line near 157.90, just above the 61.8% fib of the Monday–Wednesday leg at 157.85 and the weekly open at 157.82. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 157.85, 157.815, 157.436
Resistance: 158.13, 158.40, 158.508
What it said to watch
H1 close below 157.85 (61.8% fib and Wednesday's London low) breaks the rising lows and exposes the weekly open at 157.82, then the Monday low at 157.44
Recovery above EMA20 near 158.13 and through the 158.40 lower highs reopens the 158.51 week high at the 200DMA
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read after the Minutes
18:02 UTC
Rising lows within a range, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 157.943
Higher lows since Monday; lower high under 158.51 week high.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 157.44 week low, but Wednesday's Asia-session push to the 158.51 week high stalled at the 200-DMA. London then pulled it back to the 157.85 wed low, and NY could only manage a lower high near 158.40 before fading. Price now sits below the ema20 at 158.17 and on the higher-lows trendline near 157.92, just above the 61.8% fib of the week's rally, with RSI(14) easing to ~38 into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 157.85, 157.77, 157.44
Resistance: 158.17, 158.30, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the dollar's yield-led bid is the backdrop
H1 close below the 157.85 wed low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.77 tue low
Failure to hold the 157.77 tue low shifts focus back to the 157.44 week low
Recovery above the ema20 at 158.17 and the 158.30 mon high reopens the 158.51 week high (200-DMA); the lower-highs line caps until then
157.44–158.51 weekly range with higher lows; lower high at 158.40 after the week-high rejection.
USD/JPY has held a 157.44–158.51 range since Monday's open, carving higher lows along a rising trendline before Wednesday's Asia-session push to the 158.51 week high was rejected. A lower high near 158.40 capped the London and NY bounces, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 158.20 toward 158.00 as hawkish-leaning BoJ remarks from Sato offset the yield-driven USD bid. RSI(14) near 40 sits mid-cycle, and the 157.85 wed low lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the week rally.
Support: 157.85, 157.82, 157.44
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.51 week high breaks the range top; failure back under the 158.40 lower high keeps the range intact
Failure to hold the 157.85 wed low and the higher lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence, exposing the 157.82 weekly open and the 157.44 week low
Holding below EMA(20) at 158.20 into the NY session keeps the pullback from the week high in play
16:03 UTC
Range with higher lows, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 158.101
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 157.44 week low. The rally reached a 1.5-week high at 158.51 (week high) in Wednesday's Asia session as US yields and oil lifted USD. Hawkish BoJ Sato remarks then pulled the pair down into London open, where today's low at 157.85 held the 61.8% fib of the week's rally. Since then, two lower highs near 158.40 have capped price, which now sits at the 38.2% fib just under the ema20 (~158.21), with RSI(14) near 45 and the 50% fib at 157.97 just below.
Support: 157.97, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.21, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the 157.44–158.51 range
H1 close above the 158.51 week high breaks the range top and opens 158.70 resistance
Reclaim of the ema20 near 158.21 and a break of the 158.40 lower highs would restore the upside sequence
Loss of the 50% fib at 157.97, then a break below today's low at 157.85, ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 157.44 week low
15:03 UTC
Higher lows since Friday, momentum fading under 158.50 · RSI 43 · price 158.117
Rising lows compressing beneath a 158.40–158.51 cap.
Since Friday's flush to 156.95 on the US wage miss, the pair has printed higher lows each session, from the 157.44 week low on Monday to today's 157.85 day low. The Asia session pushed to a 158.51 week high at the 200-DMA before BoJ Sato's remarks drove a dip into London open, and NY-session retests stalled at a 158.40 lower high. Price has slipped back under EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 158.21/158.15 with RSI(14) at 43, holding above the higher-low trendline and the 38.2% fib of the NFP-to-high leg, both near 157.90.
Support: 157.90, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.40, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close below the 157.90 trendline breaks the higher-low sequence; the 157.85 day low then gives way to the 157.44 week low
H1 close above the 158.40 lower high and the 158.51 week high opens a path to the 158.70 range top
From Sunday's 157.82 open, H1 has built higher lows off Monday's 157.44 week low. Firmer USD, higher yields and Japanese fiscal unease drove Wednesday's Asia-session push to the 158.51 week high. BoJ Sato's hawkish-leaning remarks then pulled the pair to the 157.85 London low, which sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Mon–Wed impulse. Supply has capped the two NY highs near 158.40, leaving price just under EMA(20) at 158.22 and sitting on EMA(50), with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s.
Support: 157.97, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.51
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 157.85 london low breaks the higher-low trendline
Holding the 50% retrace at 157.97 keeps the pullback shallow within the impulse
Reclaiming ema20 at 158.22, then a close above the ny highs at 158.40, reopens the 158.51 week high
Failure to hold 157.85 exposes Monday's 157.44 week low
Higher lows since Monday; pullback held near 61.8%.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 157.44. It broke the 158.30 prior high during Wednesday's Asia session and reached a 158.51 week high as reports of Japanese fiscal expansion weighed on the yen. BoJ member Sato's hawkish-leaning comments then drove a London-session pullback to 157.85, a higher low near the 61.8% retracement of the week advance; price has since rebuilt to 158.21, pinned at EMA(20) just under the prior high, with RSI(14) near 47 and the 158.10 fib 38.2 underneath.
Support: 158.10, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.30, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y note auction could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.51 week high opens the path toward 158.70, the range top cited by UOB
Failure to hold the 157.85 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.44 week low
Repeated H1 closes below the 158.10 fib 38.2 would mark the Wednesday rebound as fading
12:02 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, stalling below week high · RSI 53 · price 158.196
Higher lows from 157.44 to 157.85, capped at 158.51.
USDJPY has carved a higher-low trendline from Monday's Asian weekly low at 157.44 through Tuesday's 157.77 and today's London-open low at 157.85, recovering the full post-NFP drop with the 50% level of the NFP-to-high fib never tested. Asia session today tagged a week high at 158.51, the 200-DMA cited in the digest, before the yen firmed on BoJ member Sato's gradual-hike comments; buyers stepped in again above 157.85 and price is now rotating around the 158.00 round number just under the ema20 (~158.25). RSI(14) near 53 and ATR around 17 pips reflect compression ahead of the FOMC Minutes, with the 158.51 week high and the 158.70 range top from the digest overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.85, 157.44
Resistance: 158.25, 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 near 158.25 restores the upside rotation toward the 158.51 week high
Sustained break of the 158.51 week high exposes the 158.70 range top
Failure to hold the 157.85 today low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 157.44 weekly low back in view
A slip under the 158.00 round number shifts focus to the 157.73 NFP-to-high fib 50% level
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, capped at week high · RSI 59 · price 158.317
Higher lows since Friday's jobs low; 158.51 week high caps.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since the soft US jobs report pushed it to 156.95 on Friday. Asia's push to a 158.51 week high met rejection, and Sato's comments pulled the pair to a 157.85 london low at the London open, just under the 38.2% retracement of that impulse and above the higher-low trendline. Price has since moved back above EMA(20) near 158.25 with RSI(14) at 59, and Tuesday's NY close at 158.10 is the nearer reference below.
Support: 158.25, 158.10, 157.85
Resistance: 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.51 week high extends the higher-high sequence
Break below the 157.85 london low and the higher-low trendline undermines the uptrend read
Failure to hold the 158.10 ny close and ema20 puts the 38.2% retracement back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
Higher lows; Monday high broken, retested and reclaimed.
USDJPY has printed higher lows since the 157.44 week low on Monday. Tuesday traded as an inside day, then the Asia session broke the 158.30 Monday high and ran to a 158.51 week high on firmer yields and oil. The London-open drop on Sato's hawkish-leaning BoJ remarks stalled at 157.85, close to the 61.8% level of the week-range fib, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) and the Monday high, with RSI(14) holding near 58.
Support: 158.295, 157.85, 157.436
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; the digest flags a dovish read as the bigger surprise for the pair
An H1 close back below the 158.30 Monday high would return price to Tuesday's range
A break of the 158.51 week high would bring the 158.70 range top into view, with intervention rhetoric cited above that zone
Failure to hold the 157.85 London low would break the higher-lows line and expose the 157.44 week low
Higher lows since Monday; Asia break above 158.30 faded back into prior range.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session week low at 157.436. Monday's NY session and Asia today drove the gains as firm US yields and fading BoJ October hike bets weighed on the yen. The Asia push through the 158.30 Monday high to a 158.508 week high did not hold: London sold it back to 157.85, the 61.8% fib of the week's move, before demand stepped in. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 158.23 but just above the ema50 around 158.12, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 158.12, 157.85, 157.436
Resistance: 158.30, 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 158.30 monday high puts the 158.508 week high back in play
Failure to hold 157.85 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 157.436 week low
Major res at 158.70 caps the topside; a break brings 160 intervention risk into focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and tonight's US 10y auction could materially shift this read
False break above Monday high, back inside the 157.91–158.30 range.
Since the weekly open at 157.82, USD/JPY has printed higher lows from Monday's 157.44. Asia pushed through the 158.30 Monday high to a 158.51 week high after Ueda gave no October hike signal, but the London open erased the move back to a 158.04 london low, leaving a false break back inside the Monday–Tuesday range. Price now trades below EMA(20) at 158.22 and EMA(50) near 158.12, and sits on the 38.2% fib of the Mon–Wed leg with RSI(14) slipping to 46.
Support: 158.04, 157.91, 157.82
Resistance: 158.22, 158.30, 158.51
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.30 monday high reopens the 158.51 week high and negates the false break
A break of the 158.04 london low and the 157.91 tuesday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the weekly open at 157.82
Recapture of the ema20 at 158.22 would restore the higher-lows rhythm
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 60 · price 158.327
Higher lows since Monday; monday high broken, retest underway.
USD/JPY has built higher lows since Monday's Asia-session week low at 157.44, with Tuesday dips holding 157.77 and the 157.91 higher low. It cleared the monday high at 158.30 late Tuesday into the Asia session, reaching a week high of 158.51 as DXY reclaimed 102.00 on firmer yields and US-Iran rhetoric. Price is now easing back toward 158.24–158.30 around EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement into London open, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s to about 60.
Support: 158.30, 158.10, 157.91
Resistance: 158.51, 159.00
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; the soft-wage flush to 156.95 last Friday shows the pair's sensitivity to Fed repricing
H1 close back below the monday high at 158.30 would turn the move into a false break
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 38.2% fib at 158.10 exposes the 157.91 higher low
H1 close above the 158.51 week high opens the path to the 159.00 round number, with official FX pushback risk rising toward 160
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under week high · RSI 61 · price 158.349
Higher lows since Friday's low, breakout above Monday high.
Since Friday's payrolls-driven low at 156.95, H1 has printed a series of higher lows along a rising trendline. In Wednesday's Asia session, price cleared the Monday high at 158.30 as USD regained its bid and BoJ October hike odds faded. Price is now consolidating above EMA(20) near 158.26, just below the week high at 158.51, with RSI(14) easing to about 61 after the push higher.
Support: 158.295, 158.18, 157.91
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday high at 158.30 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline near 158.18 and the 38.2% fib at 157.91 would break the higher-low sequence
Sustained trade above the week high at 158.51 brings the 158.70 range top into play, where upside room narrows on intervention sensitivity
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read in either direction
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; Asia breakout above Monday high.
Since Friday's post-NFP low at 156.945 the pair has printed higher lows at the monday low (157.44) and tuesday low (157.91). The tuesday low sits on the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP leg. In today's Asia session price broke the monday high near 158.30 and printed a 158.51 session high as US yields firmed and BoJ hike bets receded. Since then it has held above the EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 66, short of overbought.
Support: 158.30, 157.91, 157.44
Resistance: 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the monday high at 158.30 would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 157.91 breaks the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% fib
Range top at 158.70 (UOB band) is the area to watch for rejection or break, with 160 intervention risk above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
A drop under the monday low at 157.44 would break the higher-lows trendline
Higher lows from post-NFP low; Asia break above Monday high.
Higher lows have stacked since Friday's NFP-driven low at 156.95, with 157.44 on Monday and 157.77 on Tuesday. During Wednesday's Asia session, price cleared Monday's high at 158.30 and printed a week high of 158.51 as BoJ hike bets faded. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 69, just short of overbought, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 13 pips off the Asian low at 158.08.
Support: 158.295, 158.076, 157.767
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday high at 158.30 would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the Tuesday low at 157.77 breaks the post-NFP sequence
Acceptance above the week high at 158.51 brings the 158.70 range top cited by UOB into play, with 160 intervention risk above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
USD/JPY has printed higher lows since Monday's 157.44 low, from a 157.82 weekly open, along a rising trendline now near 158.10. Today's Asia session pushed through the 158.30 Monday high and Thursday's 158.45 to a 158.51 asia high, with price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 68 as the yen softened on fading October BoJ hike odds. Tuesday's pullbacks held the 157.91 tue low, which aligns with the 38.2% level of the post-NFP fib from Friday's 156.95 low.
Support: 158.30, 158.10, 157.91
Resistance: 158.51, 158.70, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.30 Monday high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Loss of the rising trendline near 158.10, then the 157.91 tue low, ends the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 158.51 asia high and the 158.70 range top opens the 159.00 round number, with intervention chatter building toward 160
FOMC Minutes today at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY has built a higher-low trendline since Monday's 157.44 Asia low. Tuesday's dips held 157.77 and then 157.91, the 38.2% fib of the post-NFP rebound from 156.95. In today's Asia session price cleared the Monday high at 158.30 and Thursday's 158.45 peak to print a week high of 158.51, even as the digest describes a softer dollar on easing yields. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 66, firm but not overbought.
Support: 158.295, 157.91
Resistance: 158.508, 158.70
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the monday high at 158.30 would put the Asia breakout at risk of a false break
A loss of the 158 pivot and the higher-low trendline near 158.10 would break this week's higher-low sequence and expose the 38.2% fib at 157.91
Acceptance above the week high at 158.51 brings the UOB top at 158.70 into view, and intervention rhetoric tends to build as price approaches 160
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read through the US yield channel
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 72 · price 158.46
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low, Asia breakout above Monday high.
Since Friday's NFP flush to 156.95, the pair has carved higher lows at Monday's 157.44 and Tuesday's 157.77. It spent Tuesday compressed around the 158 pivot before the Asia session lifted it through the Monday high at 158.30 to a new week high at 158.47. That push came even as the broader USD softened, with JPY the G10 exception. RSI(14) near 72 has the move stretched, with EMA(20) around 158.20 well below price.
Support: 158.30, 157.77
Resistance: 158.47, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.30 Monday high would mark a false break back into the 158 pivot range
Break of the higher lows trendline and Tuesday low at 157.77 ends the post-NFP rally sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Approach toward the 159.00 round number and 160 intervention line raises MoF verbal-warning risk
Friday's NFP-driven drop to 156.95 was fully retraced. Since Monday's Asia-session low at 157.44, the pair has carved higher lows at 157.77 and 157.91 on Tuesday, with the yen the only DXY currency that failed to gain as yields eased. Price has pushed through the monday high at 158.30 into Wednesday's Asian session, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61. Last Thursday's prior high at 158.45 is the next level overhead.
Support: 158.30, 158.09, 157.77
Resistance: 158.45, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the monday high at 158.30 would mark the push as a false break inside the range
Loss of the rising trendline and EMA(20) near 158.09, then the tuesday low at 157.77, would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the prior high at 158.45 opens the round number at 159.00
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields