21:03 UTC
Sideways after rally, higher lows building · RSI 56 · price 158.289
Contracting range: lower highs from 159.03, higher lows from 156.38.
After the 153.35 to 159.03 advance, USDJPY has compressed into a narrowing structure. A lower-high trendline runs off the 159.03 swing high and a higher-low trendline runs off the 156.38 swing low, with the 156.95 prior low and 157.52 higher low marking the rising floor. The 158.51 range top caps price near the 78.6% retrace of the 159.03–156.38 drop, ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 31 pips, and EMA20 holds above EMA50 with price above both, as a wide yield gap offsets intervention caution ahead of US CPI.
Support: 157.52, 156.95, 156.38
Resistance: 158.51, 159.03
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 158.51 range top opens a retest of the 159.03 swing high
- Failure to hold the 157.52 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 156.95 prior low
- Loss of the 156.38 swing low would mark a lower-low and end the compression read
- US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and US-Japan IMF sideline talks could materially shift this read; any FX rhetoric is a yen risk
- BoJ Koeda speech Thu 01:30 UTC on October hike odds