21:04 UTC
Lower highs since late July, rebound stalling · RSI 56 · price 158.289
Pennant compression below 159.03 swing high.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the late-July collapse from 163.99, and a second sharp leg in early September based at the 152.89 sept low. The rebound has retraced into the 61.8–78.6% zone of the September drop and stalled below the 159.03 swing high. For two weeks price has compressed in a pennant between the 157.52 range floor and the 158.51 range top, hugging a flattening EMA(50). The wide US-Japan yield gap and hawkish FOMC minutes keep the dollar underpinned, while intervention risk toward 160 has capped the topside.
Support: 157.52, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 158.51, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- D1 close above the 158.51 range top and the lower-high trendline opens the 159.03 swing high, then the 160.39 sep 2 high near the 160 intervention line
- Daily close below the 157.52 range floor (61.8% of the September drop) breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 156.38 swing low
- Loss of the 156.38 swing low reopens the path toward the 152.89 sept low
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 and US-Japan sideline talks at the IMF meetings could materially shift this read