USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday pullback from NY high, oversold · RSI 28 · price 158.515
Lower highs from 158.75; broken low at 158.56.
Monday's holiday-thin rally from the Asian range broke higher in London and peaked at the 158.75 NY high on oil and Japan fiscal worries. Since then the pair has printed a lower-high sequence and slipped through the 158.56 broken low in early Asia, nearing the 38.2% fib of the day's advance with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 158.49, 158.40
Resistance: 158.56, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 158.49 exposes the 158.40 london base
Reclaim of the 158.56 broken low and a close above the 158.64 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Only a return through the 158.75 ny high restores the intraday up-leg
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
23:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 32 · price 158.538
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 158.75; post-NY range floor at 158.56 broken.
Monday's rally from the 158.08 Asian low ran to the 158.75 NY high on oil and a firmer USD in Japan-holiday trade. Since then, lower highs along the trendline and a slip through the 158.56 broken low after rollover have put price at 158.53 early in Asia, with RSI(14) near 32. The 158.50 round number and 38.2% fib sit just below, then the 158.40 London low.
Support: 158.50, 158.49, 158.40
Resistance: 158.56, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.64 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the pullback read
Acceptance below the 158.50 round number / 38.2% fib exposes the 158.40 London low
Tokyo's return after the holiday could widen the Asian range from 3.7-pip ATR
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and Wed US CPI could materially shift this read
In thin Japan-holiday trade, London broke above the Asian range (158.08–158.39) and NY extended to a 158.751 session high on firm USD, higher oil and Japan fiscal worries. Since then the pair has printed a lower high near 158.69 and dipped to the 158.56 rollover low. Price at 158.635 sits just above the 23.6% fib of the day's leg as the new Asia session opens, with ATR compressed to under 4 pips.
Support: 158.56, 158.49
Resistance: 158.69, 158.751
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.56 rollover low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.49, the old London breakout area
A close above the 158.69 lower high and the 158.751 session high resumes the higher-high chain toward the cited 158.70 range top; 160 intervention rhetoric is the next constraint
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, around London open, could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
22:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 35 · price 158.602
Lower highs off 158.751 after London broke the Asian range; holding above rollover low.
London broke the 158.39 asian high and NY extended to a 158.751 day high. Price has since drifted lower under a falling trendline, with lower highs into the rollover, and is now holding the 158.56 rollover low near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg. Oil-driven USD demand and Japan fiscal worries carried the thin, Japan-holiday move up to the 158.70 range top.
Support: 158.56, 158.48, 158.39
Resistance: 158.65, 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.65 rollover hi and the falling trendline ends the pullback read and puts the 158.70 range top and 158.751 day high back in focus
Failure to hold the 158.56 rollover low confirms a lower low and opens the 158.48 london high near the 38.2% fib
Tokyo returns from holiday in the Asia session, so liquidity and range expansion could shift this read
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC beyond that, could materially shift this read
Approach toward 160 keeps MoF intervention rhetoric in play near the range top
22:31 UTC
Uptrend stalled, fading from day high · RSI 36 · price 158.599
Lower highs below 158.75, sitting on 158.56 rollover low.
Price climbed from the 158.08 Asian low through London and into NY, peaking at the 158.75 day high on oil and Fed-hike bets in holiday-thin Japan trade. Since the rejection there, lower highs at 158.69 and a gap at the daily rollover to the 158.56 rollover low leave price below both EMAs. RSI(14) is near 36 with Asia session opening.
Support: 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.69, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 rollover low opens the 158.48 london high, near the 38.2% retracement of the asia-ny leg
Recovery above the 158.69 lower high breaks the fade; the 158.75 day high sits at the digest's 158.70 range top
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
22:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 31 · price 158.599
Lower highs off 158.75, swing low 158.56 holding.
In holiday-thinned Japan trade, the pair climbed from the 158.08 Asian low through London and NY on oil and a firmer USD. It peaked at the 158.75 session high and met rejection near the 158.70 range top. Since then price has printed lower highs, and the rollover dip found demand at the 158.56 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 31 with both EMAs overhead in early Asia.
Support: 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 swing low exposes the 158.48 london high, the breakout level from the London open
Recovery through the lower-highs line and 158.70 range top reopens the 158.75 session high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) around London open could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs below 158.751 session high; late-NY range lost into rollover.
Monday's thin Japan-holiday trade climbed from the 158.075 Asian low. London open cleared the Asian high, and NY topped at the 158.751 session high on oil and firm-USD flows, a rejection near the 158.70 range-top area. Price has since dropped out of the 158.63–158.69 late-NY range to a 158.56 rollover low and sits on the 23.6% retracement of the rally fib, with RSI(14) near 34 early in the new Asia session.
Support: 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.63, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.63 range floor reopens the late-NY range
Failure to hold the 158.56 rollover low exposes the london high at 158.48, which aligns with the 38.2% rally fib
Thin post-rollover Asia liquidity can produce outsized wicks relative to ~3.5-pip ATR
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tue could shift USD tone into London; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
Lower highs after the 158.751 session high; range base lost, price testing swing low.
USD/JPY cleared the 158.08–158.39 Asian range at London open and extended to a 158.751 session high in NY on oil-driven USD demand, then rejected near the 158.70 range top. A lower high at 158.69 and a slip below the 158.63 range base through the rollover leave price on the 158.555 swing low, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 158.555, 158.48, 158.393
Resistance: 158.63, 158.692, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.555 swing low exposes the 158.48 London high, near the 38.2% fib at 158.49
Reclaim of the 158.63 range base and the 158.69 lower high would restore the intraday uptrend read toward the 158.751 session high
Failure at 158.48 reopens the 158.39 Asian high
Thin rollover and early Asia liquidity; Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
London cleared the Asian range high near 158.40, and the NY session extended to a 158.75 day high at 15:00 UTC on oil-driven USD demand before rejection at the 158.70 range top. Lower highs since then and a slip below the 158.63 NY lows leave price sitting on the fib 23.6 near 158.59, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 3 pips in thin late trade.
Support: 158.59, 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.63, 158.69, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 london low exposes the 158.48 breakout base from the London session
Recovery above the 158.69 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 158.75 day high
Former ny lows at 158.63 now overhead; repeated rejection there keeps the pullback structure intact
Asia session with Tokyo back from holiday, then Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), could shift this read
Asian range broken higher; NY drifting in 158.62–158.70 with lower highs.
London open broke the 158.40 Asian range high, and NY extended to a 158.75 session high in thin Japan-holiday trade as oil-driven USD demand pressed the 158.70 range top. Since then price has held a tight band above the 158.62 NY lows, printing lower highs into the rollover with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 158.62, 158.56, 158.49
Resistance: 158.70, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.75 session high clears the 158.70 range top and resumes the HH chain
Failure to hold the 158.62 NY lows exposes the 158.56 swing low, then the fib 38.2 at 158.49
A break of the NY lower highs line would end the post-high drift
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Japan's return from holiday in Tuesday's Asia session could shift this read
Asian range break, then late-NY drift into a tight band.
London broke the 158.40 Asian high and NY extended to a session high at 158.751. That move ran on oil- and Fed-driven USD demand in thin Japan-holiday trade. Since then late-NY bars have faded into a 158.62–158.69 band of lower highs, with price under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 158.62, 158.56, 158.40
Resistance: 158.69, 158.751
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.62 late-NY low exposes the 158.56 pullback low, then the 158.40 Asian high
A close back above the 158.69 lower high reopens the 158.751 session high, near the top of the 158.55–158.70 cited range
Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI is due Wed 12:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; lower high and tight range after NY.
London broke above the 158.08–158.40 Asian range, and NY extended to a 158.75 session high in thin Japan-holiday trade, with oil and Japan fiscal worries weighing on JPY. Since then a lower high at 158.69 has capped a 158.62–158.69 range after NY close. RSI(14) is near 42, price sits just under EMA20, and ATR has compressed to about 2.5 pips.
Support: 158.62, 158.56
Resistance: 158.69, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.62 range floor exposes the 158.56 swing low and the 23.6% fib near 158.59
A break of the lower-high line and 158.69 reopens the 158.75 session high, the top of the reported 158.55–158.70 range zone
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) into London open could shift this read after a thin Asia session
HH/HL chain from Asia low, late-NY consolidation below session high.
London broke the Asian range high at 158.40, and NY extended to a 158.75 session high on oil-driven USD demand in thin Japan-holiday trade. Late NY has settled into a tight 158.62–158.69 consolidation. RSI(14) is near 40 and price is just under EMA20, holding above the 23.6% level of the day rally fib at 158.59.
Support: 158.62, 158.58, 158.56
Resistance: 158.69, 158.75, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.62 pullback low exposes the NY low at 158.58, the day rally fib 23.6% and the london low at 158.56
Close above the 158.69 range top reopens the session high at 158.75; acceptance above it brings the 159.00 round number into view
Rising support from the Asia low (near 158.43 now) defines the intraday HL chain; a break below it ends the uptrend read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, now a tight post-peak consolidation with lower highs.
London opened with a break of the 158.08–158.40 Asian range in thin Japan-holiday trade, and oil-driven USD demand carried the leg to a 158.751 session high in NY hours. Since then the pair has held a 158.62–158.69 band under a lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ranges compressing.
Support: 158.624, 158.58, 158.493
Resistance: 158.692, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.624 late-NY low exposes the 158.58 pullback low, with the fib 38.2 of the Asia-NY leg at 158.49 below
Close above the 158.692 lower high reopens a test of the 158.751 session high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for this range
20:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 43 · price 158.653
HH/HL chain from Asia low, now a tight range 158.62–158.69 late NY.
London broke the asian high at 158.40, and NY extended the leg to a 158.751 day high on oil-driven USD demand in thin Japan-holiday trade. Price has since compressed between the late low at 158.624 and the late high at 158.692, holding above the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg, with RSI(14) near 43 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 158.624, 158.579, 158.40
Resistance: 158.692, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.751 day high resumes the HH chain through the 158.70 range top
Break of the 158.579 swing low, near the 23.6% fib, marks a lower-low and opens the 158.40 asian high
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend from Asian low, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 46 · price 158.667
London opened above the 158.08–158.40 Asian range, and NY pushed to a 158.75 session high on firm USD and oil. Since then the pair has gone into a tight late-NY consolidation: the pullback low at 158.63 held, and price sits just under the 158.70 range top cited in the digest. RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 3 pips show momentum and volatility drained into the close.
Support: 158.63, 158.56
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.75 session high extends the higher-high sequence through the range top
Failure to hold the 158.63 pullback low exposes the 158.56 london low, which is the 11:45 UTC trough
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone before London
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a sustained break of the 158.70 range top
MoF or intervention rhetoric as price presses higher could cap extensions
Higher-low chain from 158.08; late-NY compression 158.63–158.69 under session high.
In thin Japan-holiday trade, London open broke the Asian range (158.08–158.40). Oil, Middle East risk and a firm USD then drove a higher-low chain to a 158.751 session high in NY. Late NY is compressing between a 158.63 pullback low and the 158.70 range top, with RSI(14) cooled to ~47. The pullback has held the 23.6% fib of the 158.08–158.75 leg.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.751 session high extends the higher-high chain through the 158.70 range top toward the 159.00 round number
Failure to hold the 158.63 pullback low prints a lower low and exposes the 158.58 swing low
Loss of 158.58 puts the 38.2% fib near 158.49 and the 158.40 Asian high in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; 160 intervention rhetoric is a tail risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; tight late-NY consolidation under the session high.
London open cleared the 158.40 Asian high. NY then extended to a 158.75 session high in Japan-holiday trade, as oil and Fed-hike pricing lifted USD. Price has since compressed to 158.63–158.69, pinned around the 158.70 range top, with rising lows from the london base intact. RSI(14) is cooling to ~47 and ATR is only ~3.4 pips.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.75 session high extends the HH chain beyond the 158.70 range top
Break of the 158.63 swing low and the rising-lows trendline exposes the 158.58 london base, then the 38.2% fib near 158.49
Failure back below the 158.40 asian high would negate the London breakout
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention rhetoric toward 160 is a headline risk
HH/HL chain from Asian low, now tight consolidation.
London cleared the Asian range (158.08–158.40, asian high capping) and stair-stepped higher to a 158.751 session high during NY hours. JPY stayed heavy in holiday-thinned trade on firmer oil, Middle East tension and a bid USD. Since then price has compressed between the 158.63 NY low and the 158.70 range top, holding well above the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 52.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.63 ny low exposes the 158.58 swing low and the 23.6% fib
Clearance of the 158.70 range top and the 158.751 session high resumes the higher-high chain
A return below the 158.40 asian high would unwind the London breakout
Thin Japan/US holiday liquidity into the Asia session; Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; tight 158.63–158.70 consolidation late NY.
In thin trade with Japan and the US on holiday, oil and Middle East tensions drove a USD bid. London broke the asian high at 158.40, and NY extended to a 158.751 session high. Price has since held a 158.63 pullback low and is coiling just under the 158.70 range top, with RSI(14) back at a neutral 49 and ATR near 3.6 pips.
Support: 158.63, 158.559, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.751 session high clears the 158.70 range top and extends the rising-lows leg
Break of the 158.63 pullback low exposes the 158.56 swing low and the 23.6% fib area
Loss of the 158.40 asian high would undo the London breakout
Thin Asia liquidity plus MoF intervention headlines near the range top could jolt the read; Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC
Higher lows from the Asian low; tight late-NY consolidation under 158.75.
Oil and Middle East tensions put a bid under USD in thin, holiday-hit trade. That lifted the pair out of the 158.08–158.40 Asian range at London open (london high 158.48) and on to a 158.75 session high during NY hours. Late NY is drifting just under EMA20, with the pullback low at 158.63 holding and the 158.70 range top capping, ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.48
Resistance: 158.70, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.75 session high clears the 158.70 range top flagged in the market digest
Failure at the 158.63 pullback low exposes the 158.58 swing low; a break there ends the higher-low chain
Holiday-thin liquidity raises the odds of an MoF intervention headline into the Asia session
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled driver ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Higher lows from Asia; shallow pullback after NY session high.
London broke the asian high at 158.40 and NY extended the climb to a 158.751 session high, helped by firmer oil, Middle East tensions and a bid USD in holiday-thin trade. The pair has since slipped back under the 158.70 range top and is holding a pullback low near 158.63, still above the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY leg.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.751 session high reopens the 158.70 range top breakout
Loss of the 158.63 pullback low opens the ny open low at 158.58 and the 23.6% fib
Return below the asian high at 158.40 would undo the London-NY leg
Thin Japan-holiday liquidity and intervention commentary can produce outsized moves
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after rejection at 158.75 · RSI 48 · price 158.651
HH/HL chain from Asian low; late-NY pullback below rising trendline.
Monday's climb from the 158.08 Asian low cleared the 158.40 Asian high at London open and ran to a 158.75 session high in NY, right at the 158.70 range top. Oil and haven USD demand drove the move in holiday-thin trade. The late-NY pullback has slipped under the rising trendline, with the 158.63 pullback low holding so far and the 158.58 swing low (23.6% fib) next below.
Support: 158.63, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.75 session high resumes the HH chain through the 158.70 range top
Loss of the 158.58 swing low breaks the HL sequence and exposes the 158.40 Asian high (near the 38.2% fib)
Holding the 158.63 pullback low keeps this a shallow pause below the range top
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and any MoF verbal intervention could materially shift this read ahead of Wed US CPI
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 47 · price 158.645
Asian range broken higher; lower highs since 158.751 peak, higher-low chain intact.
London broke above the 158.40 Asian range high, and the pair extended to a 158.751 day high during NY hours. That move came on oil and fiscal-driven yen softness in thin Japan/US holiday trade. Price was rejected just above the 158.70 range top and is now holding the 158.63 recent low, near the 61.8% retracement of the swing low-to-day high leg. The rising-lows line from the 158.559 pullback low is still intact.
Support: 158.63, 158.579, 158.559
Resistance: 158.686, 158.751
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.579 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising-lows line
M15 close above the 158.686 lower high, then the 158.751 day high, reasserts the range-top break
MoF verbal intervention risk rises in thin holiday liquidity near 158.70+
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC; US CPI Wed could materially shift this read
HL chain from Asian low intact; false break above range top.
USDJPY has climbed steadily from the 158.075 Asian low, cleared the Asian high in the London session and printed a session high at 158.751 in NY hours on oil- and haven-driven USD demand in thin holiday trade. That push above the 158.70 range top did not hold. Price is now retesting the rising trendline near the 158.634 pullback low, RSI(14) has cooled to the low 50s and the pair sits just under EMA20.
Support: 158.634, 158.579, 158.493
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the rising trendline and the 158.634 pullback low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 158.579 swing low
A deeper slide toward the fib 38.2 at 158.493 would turn the session advance into a broader retracement
A sustained reclaim of the 158.70 range top turns the false break into a breakout and puts the 158.751 session high back in play
Thin Japan/US holiday liquidity and intervention chatter near the highs raise the risk of outsized moves
US Monthly Budget Statement Tue 18:00 UTC and Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift this read
17:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 55 · price 158.645
Higher-low chain from the Asian low; first pullback after a 158.751 peak.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.40 and NY extended a higher-low chain to a 158.751 session high. Thin Japan-holiday trade, firmer oil and hawkish-Fed bets drove the move. Price has since slipped back under the 158.70 range top to 158.645, with RSI(14) cooling to ~55 and the intraday HL line near 158.61 now being tested.
Support: 158.58, 158.49, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70, 158.751
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.751 session high resumes the HL chain into fresh highs
Failure to hold the 158.58 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 158.49 and the Asian high at 158.40
Holiday-thin liquidity near the 158.70 range top keeps MoF jawboning headline risk live
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled driver ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Higher lows since Asia, stalling below session high.
USD/JPY broke the Asian high at 158.40 at the London open and stepped higher through the session in thin Japan/US holiday trade. Oil and Mideast risk kept the yen soft. After London close, price is drifting just under the 158.751 session high, with the pullback low at 158.677 holding and the London base near 158.56 below.
Support: 158.677, 158.56, 158.40
Resistance: 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin liquidity
M15 close below the 158.677 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the London base at 158.56 in focus
Clearance of the 158.751 session high opens the 159.00 round number
Loss of 158.56 shifts focus to the 38.2–50% fib zone near the 158.40 Asian high
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC as next scheduled catalyst into Wed CPI
HH/HL chain from Asian low 158.08; shallow pullback off 158.75.
London broke out of the Asian range (158.08 to the 158.40 Asian high) and cleared the 158.51 range top in thin holiday trade, with Mideast and oil jitters keeping USD bid. NY extended to a 158.75 session high before easing to 158.70. Higher lows at 158.56 and the 158.58 swing low, near the 23.6% fib, keep the chain intact, and RSI(14) is cooling to about 67.
Support: 158.58, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.58 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 158.51 range top back in play (38.2% fib near 158.49)
Acceptance above the 158.75 session high exposes the 159.00 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; liquidity is thin with Japan and US banks out
Losing the 158.40 Asian high would undo the London breakout read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for the range-top break
HH/HL chain from Asian low, holding above broken range top.
USDJPY has stepped up in higher lows from the 158.08 Asian low and broke the 158.50 range top during London as the dollar firmed on Mideast tensions, in holiday-thin trade. The NY session set a 158.75 session high, and price is now easing onto the 158.67 ny shelf and the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 158.67, 158.56, 158.50
Resistance: 158.75, 158.80
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.67 ny shelf and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 158.56 london low exposes a retest of the 158.50 range top
Close above the 158.75 session high opens the 158.80 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin US/Japan holiday liquidity
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 61 · price 158.703
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; Asian range broken above.
London open broke the Asian range high at 158.40 and the pair has stepped higher since. The midday 158.56–158.65 range top gave way in NY hours, printing a 158.751 session high, with price easing back toward 158.70. Japan's holiday and the US holiday keep liquidity thin, with safe-haven USD demand and yen fiscal worries behind the grind.
Support: 158.647, 158.588, 158.559
Resistance: 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.588 higher low breaks the HL chain and puts the 158.559 london low in play
Failure to hold the 158.647 range top turns the NY breakout into a false break
Close above the 158.751 session high opens the path toward the 159.00 round number
A break of the rising trendline from the 06:15 UTC low ends the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday trade; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low; NY pressing session high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.40 on the open. A second leg at 09:30 UTC broke the 158.48 london high into a 158.56–158.65 range, and NY has since stepped up from a 158.67 ny shelf to a 158.751 session high, with rising support intact. The grind tracks yen softness on Japanese debt worries and Mideast jitters in holiday-thin trade with Japan and the US out, and RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 158.67, 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.67 ny shelf and rising support breaks the NY HH/HL chain
Loss of the 158.56 range low would put the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY leg near the 158.48 london high in play
Acceptance above the 158.751 session high opens the 159.00 psych area
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt price in thin holiday liquidity
US Budget Statement Tue 18:00 UTC and CPI build-up may shift the intraday read
Higher highs and higher lows since Asia; NY broke the London range.
London cleared the 158.40 Asia high and built a 158.58–158.65 shelf. Early NY broke out of that range and printed a 158.746 session high, just above the 158.70 range top, in thin US/Japan holiday liquidity. Higher lows sit on rising support; RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 158.70, 158.58, 158.40
Resistance: 158.746, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
M15 close back below the 158.70 range top would mark a false break
Loss of the 158.58 london low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.746 session high opens the 159.00 round number
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's main catalyst for the range top
London broke the 158.40 Asian high at the open, and the 08:30 UTC retest held. Price has since stepped up in a shallow HH/HL chain to a 158.695 session high in early NY, with liquidity thin on US and Japan holidays and USD supported by Mideast-driven safe-haven demand. It is now pressing the 158.70 range top with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) under 4 pips.
Support: 158.58, 158.46, 158.40
Resistance: 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.70 range top extends the London breakout into fresh intraday ground
Loss of the 158.58 higher low breaks the NY HH/HL chain and exposes the 38.2% fib (158.46) of the Asian low–session high leg
A return below the 158.40 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in holiday-thin conditions
Higher lows from the 158.075 Asian low; 158.48 London high broken, new session high in early NY.
USD/JPY has stepped up from the 158.075 Asian low, clearing the 158.48 London high and the 158.50s range top. It is now printing a session high at 158.684 in the first hours of NY, in thin holiday trade with yen weakness the driver. Dips have held the 158.56–158.58 base low along rising support; RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 158.57, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.684, 158.70, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 158.56–158.58 base low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.70 band edge opens the 159.00 psych level
Loss of the 158.48 london high exposes the 158.40 asia high near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian low-high leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin US-holiday liquidity
14:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady near session high · RSI 59 · price 158.655
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; tight 158.56–158.67 box after the London break.
In thin holiday trade with Japan and the US closed, USD/JPY has built higher lows from the 158.08 Asian low. London cleared the 158.40 Asian high and the 158.48 breakout level, and price has since compressed for four hours in a 158.56–158.67 box, with the 158.58 swing low holding and early NY pressing the session high. RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 4 pips show a steady grind rather than a stretched move, helped by firm oil and yen fiscal worries.
Support: 158.58, 158.56, 158.48
Resistance: 158.67, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.67 session high exposes the 158.70 band edge, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior tests
Loss of the 158.58 swing low and the rising support line, near 158.60, breaks the higher-low chain; the 158.56 range low and 158.48 breakout level sit below
A 38.2% retrace of the Asian-low rally lands near 158.44, just under the breakout level
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in holiday-thin liquidity could jolt the range
HH/HL chain from Asia low, tight range above breakout.
In thin holiday trade (Japan and US out), the yen stayed soft on fiscal worries and firmer oil. London cleared the Asian high near 158.40, then broke through the 158.50 area at 09:30 UTC. Since then price has compressed in a 158.56–158.67 range, with the session high just printed and RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 158.56, 158.50, 158.44
Resistance: 158.67, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 range low puts the 158.50 breakout level up for a retest
Acceptance above the 158.67 session high exposes the 158.70 round number
Loss of 158.50 shifts focus to the fib 38.2 of the Asia-to-high move near 158.44
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, in holiday-thin liquidity, could jolt the range
HH/HL chain from the 158.075 session low; tight post-breakout consolidation under the session high.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high and the 158.48 London high, then pushed to a 158.647 session high. Thin Japan and US holiday trade and firmer oil on Mideast tensions kept USD supported. Since then the pair has compressed in a 158.56–158.65 band with a higher low at 158.579, and it is now pressing the session high again with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 158.579, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.647, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.647 session high opens the 158.70 band edge from the digest's intraday range
Failure to hold the 158.579 higher low turns the band into a range and exposes the 158.48 London high
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday liquidity could jolt the range; Wed US CPI remains the main catalyst
HH/HL chain since Asia low; tight consolidation under session high.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian high near 158.40 at London open and extended to a 158.65 session high as the dollar recovered on oil and Mideast tensions. Price is now compressing in a 158.56–158.65 band into early NY on thin US/Japan holiday volume, still above rising support from the Asia low.
Support: 158.56, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.65, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 158.48 breakout lvl, then the fib 38.2% near 158.43
Failure to hold the 158.40 asian high would negate the London breakout
Clearance of the 158.65 session high opens the 158.70 band edge
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC; holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate moves
Higher lows since Asian low; tight consolidation above broken range top.
Higher lows from the 158.08 Asian low carried USDJPY through the 158.40 Asian high at London open and then through the 158.51 range top, with the yen soft in thin holiday trade on fiscal and oil worries. Since late morning London, price has held a 9-pip box between the 158.56 pullback low and the 158.647 session high. ATR has compressed to about 3.5 pips into early NY hours.
Support: 158.56, 158.51, 158.40
Resistance: 158.647, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.51 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the 158.56 pullback low and the rising trendline undercuts the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 158.647 session high exposes the 158.70 band edge
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; Wed US CPI is the main catalyst
MoF verbal intervention headlines near range highs
London breakout above Asian range, now a 9-pip consolidation above prior range top.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high at the open and, via the 158.48 breakout lvl, pushed through the 158.51 range top to a 158.647 session high, on haven USD demand and oil-driven yen softness in thin US/Japan holiday trade. Since 10:15 UTC price has compressed between the 158.559 swing low and the session high, holding above rising support. RSI(14) sits near 63 and ATR(14) is about 3.5 pips, so intraday ranges are tight.
Support: 158.559, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.647, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.647 session high opens the 158.70 band edge, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior tests
Loss of the 158.559 swing low and rising support puts the 158.48 breakout lvl and 158.40 asian high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt holiday-thin liquidity and break the compression
HH/HL chain from Asian low; tight shelf above 158.48 breakout.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian high at 158.40 at London open, then the 158.48 breakout level mid-London, extending to a 158.65 session high. Thin US/Japan holiday trade and firmer oil and Mideast jitters kept the yen soft. Price has since compressed in a ~9-pip shelf above the 158.56 swing low on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 158.56, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.65, 158.70, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.56 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain and exposes the 158.48 breakout level
Break above the 158.65 session high puts the 158.70 band edge in focus; 159.00 round number beyond that
Return inside the Asian range below the 158.40 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break, with the 38.2% retracement of the Asian-low rally near 158.43
Japanese MoF rhetoric on yen weakness can abruptly shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
US CPI on Wed is the main catalyst; Fed speakers before then are a secondary risk
HH/HL chain from Asia low; tight consolidation under session high.
London broke the asian high at 158.40 and extended through the 158.48 breakout lvl. Price has stepped up from the 158.08 Asia low to a 158.647 session high in holiday-thin trade, with the yen soft on fiscal and oil concerns. The last two hours have compressed into a 158.56–158.65 band above the rising trendline, RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 158.559, 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.647, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.559 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Clean push through the 158.647 session high puts the 158.70 range edge in play
Loss of the 158.48 breakout lvl reopens the asian high at 158.40
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read; US and Japan holidays keep liquidity thin
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 67 · price 158.629
Higher-low chain from the 158.075 Asia low; London broke the Asian high and is holding a tight 158.56–158.64 box.
In thin US and Japan holiday trade, London cleared the 158.40 asian high and the 158.50 breakout lvl as the yen stayed soft on fiscal worries and firmer oil. Since the 158.639 session high, price has held a 158.56–158.64 box with the swing low intact and the rising trendline untested. RSI(14) is cooling near 67 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 158.559, 158.50, 158.40
Resistance: 158.639, 158.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.639 session high opens the 158.70 range edge, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior tests
A close below the 158.559 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Failure back under the 158.50 breakout lvl would mark a false break back into the prior range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves around it
Higher lows since Asia; London breakout above range top, tight band 158.56–158.64.
The Monday rally from the 158.08 Asia low cleared the Asian range and the 158.43 Friday high at London open, then broke the 158.51 range top to a 158.64 session high on a soft yen (fiscal worries, firmer oil). Price is holding a 158.56–158.64 band into the first hour of NY in holiday-thin trade, with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 158.56, 158.51, 158.43
Resistance: 158.64, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.64 session high exposes the 158.70 range edge, where intervention rhetoric has capped prior pushes
Break of the 158.56 pullback low puts the 158.51 range top retest in play; acceptance back below it reads as a false break toward the 158.43 Friday high
Rising lows trendline near 158.52 coincides with the range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin US-holiday liquidity could shift this read
Higher lows from Asian low, tight 158.60–158.64 box after London breakout.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high and Friday's 158.43 top, then pushed through the 158.48 breakout level to a 158.64 session high. Trade is thin with US and Japan holidays, while oil and Mideast jitters keep the yen soft. Price is now boxed at 158.60–158.64 into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 75, and rising support from the 158.08 Asian low is intact.
Support: 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.64, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.48 breakout level returns price to the London consolidation
Failure to hold the 158.40 Asian high puts the 38.2% fib of the Asian low–session high move (~158.42) and rising support in play
Close above the 158.64 session high exposes the 158.70 range edge, where intervention-risk rhetoric tends to build
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in holiday-thinned NY hours
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 73 · price 158.616
Higher lows from 158.075 Asia low; tight shelf above broken range.
USDJPY cleared the 158.40 Asian range high and Friday's 158.43 top during London, then pushed to a 158.639 session high. The move came in thin US/Japan holiday trade, with firmer oil and Japanese fiscal worries weighing on the yen. Price is now compressing in a 158.60–158.64 shelf above the 158.48 prior high, with RSI(14) near 73 and the rising trendline from the 06:15 UTC low still intact.
Support: 158.596, 158.48, 158.395
Resistance: 158.639, 158.70, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.596 shelf low exposes the 158.48 prior high and the rising trendline
Break of the 158.639 session high puts the 158.70 band in view, then the 159.00 round number
Loss of the 158.395 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; 38.2% of the Asia low fib sits near 158.42
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday liquidity could jolt the range
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London breakout above Asian high, now in a tight flag.
Thin trade with Japan and the US on holiday, and the yen still soft. Early in London, USD/JPY broke above the 158.48 Asian high, clearing the 158.51/158.54 range-top area, and is now flagging in a 158.58–158.64 band beneath the session high. RSI(14) near 73 is cooling as ATR compresses to about 4 pips, and the rising trendline from the 158.075 Asian low sits near 158.49.
Support: 158.58, 158.48, 158.395
Resistance: 158.64, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.64 session high opens the 158.70 band edge cited in the digest
Close below the 158.58 micro low ends the flag and exposes the 158.48 Asian high as retest support
Loss of 158.395 (pre-London base) and the rising trendline undoes the breakout
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin holiday liquidity
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding at session high · RSI 72 · price 158.62
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London range broken higher.
USDJPY has climbed from the 158.08 Asian low through the 158.39 Asian high. It broke the 158.40–158.48 London range at 09:15 UTC and cleared the 158.51–158.54 range top, reaching a 158.64 session high mid-London. RSI(14) sits near 72 and ATR is about 4.5 pips in holiday-thin trade with Japan and the US out, as hawkish-Fed tone and yen fiscal softness carry the grind.
Support: 158.54, 158.48, 158.39
Resistance: 158.64, 158.70
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.54 range top keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below the 158.48 london high would mark a false break
158.70 band top is the next resistance overhead; thin liquidity raises the risk of MoF/intervention headlines
A close below the rising trendline (~158.53) breaks the higher-low sequence from the Asian low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 76 · price 158.61
Higher lows from the 158.075 Asian low, breakout above range top.
London broke the 158.40 Asian high at the open and cleared the 158.51 range top at 09:30 UTC. The move extended to a 158.64 session high on hawkish-Fed and haven USD demand in holiday-thin trade. Mid-London, price is holding just under that high with RSI(14) near 76, and the higher-low chain from the 158.075 Asian low keeps the rising trendline intact.
Support: 158.51, 158.40, 158.28
Resistance: 158.64, 158.70
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.51 range top keeps the breakout valid; a return below it reopens the 158.40 Asian high
M15 close above the 158.64 session high exposes the 158.70 band top
Break of the rising trendline (~158.47) and the 38.2% fib (158.42) undercuts the higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.28 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) would unwind the London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US/Japan holiday liquidity and MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 80 · price 158.618
Higher lows from Asian low; London break above Asian high, new session high.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high. After two hours holding above it, price broke through the 158.48 London high to a 158.64 session high, with the higher-low trendline from the 158.08 Asian low intact. RSI(14) near 80 in thin holiday trade (Japan out), with USD underpinned by a hawkish-Fed tone and Mideast jitters.
Support: 158.48, 158.40
Resistance: 158.636, 158.70
What it said to watch
Close back below the 158.48 London high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 158.40 Asian high breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 158.42 fib 38.2% in play
158.70 range top flagged by desks sits 8 pips above the 158.64 session high; MoF rhetoric risk rises in thin liquidity
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London consolidation broken higher.
In thin holiday trade, USD/JPY ground higher off the 158.075 Asia low along a rising trendline. A 09:30 UTC push cleared the London high at 158.48 and the 158.51–158.54 digest range top to a 158.605 session high, with fiscal and yield-gap JPY softness behind the move. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme, and the 158.70 range cap sits just overhead.
Support: 158.48, 158.428, 158.395
Resistance: 158.605, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.48 london high puts price back in the 158.395–158.47 London consolidation; a break of the 158.395 range low undoes the breakout
Friday high at 158.428 is the next shelf if 158.48 gives way
M15 close above the 158.605 session high opens the 158.70 range cap, where intervention-rhetoric risk rises
Break of the rising trendline from the 158.075 Asia low would end the HL chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin US/Japan holiday liquidity
Higher lows since Asia; London high cleared, new session high at 158.605.
Higher lows have stacked up from the 158.075 Asian low. London pushed through the Asian range high, then spent two hours basing between the 158.40 range low and the 158.48 London high before breaking out to a 158.605 session high, above Friday's 158.43 top and the 158.51–158.54 range-top/200-day zone flagged in the digest. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme, and holiday-thin Japan/US liquidity is exaggerating the moves.
Support: 158.48, 158.395, 158.075
Resistance: 158.605, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.48 london high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 158.40 range low, where the 38.2% fib of the 158.08–158.61 leg sits, breaks the higher-lows trendline structure
Session high 158.605 and the 158.70 range cap are the next upside tests; intervention rhetoric risk rises on any approach to these levels
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin NY trade
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 74 · price 158.57
Higher lows since the 158.075 Asian low; London broke the Asian high and the range top.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high and Friday's 158.43 peak. After a 158.40–158.48 pause, the pair broke the 158.51 range top to a 158.605 session high, with each higher low holding on the rising trendline from 158.11. Japan and US holidays keep liquidity thin, and RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 158.51, 158.40, 158.283
Resistance: 158.605, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the 158.51 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the rising trendline and the 158.40 asian high (38.2% fib) undoes the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 158.283 higher low turns the session structure neutral
Push through the 158.605 session high puts the 158.70 range cap in focus, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift this read in thin holiday trade
09:47 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 74 · price 158.576
Higher lows from the 158.075 Asia low, breakout above the Asian high.
London cleared the 158.40 Asian high and Friday's 158.43 peak. The higher-low chain from the 158.075 Asia low and the 158.283 swing low has run to a 158.605 session high, now pressing the 158.51–158.70 range top flagged ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Holiday-thin liquidity is in play with Japan and the US out, and RSI(14) is around 74.
Support: 158.48, 158.40, 158.283
Resistance: 158.605, 158.70
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the 158.48 london high keeps the breakout intact. An M15 close back below it points to a false break.
An M15 close below the 158.40 asian high, also the 38.2% of the asia-london leg, breaks the higher-low trendline structure.
Acceptance above 158.70 range top, beyond the 158.605 session high, would resolve the two-week band higher. Intervention rhetoric risk rises on any extension.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 70 · price 158.494
HH/HL chain off the Asia low; London broke above the Asian high and Friday high.
London open lifted USD/JPY through the Asian high at 158.40 and the Friday high at 158.43. Price has kept a higher-low chain off the 158.08 Asia low and is now testing the 158.51 two-week high in holiday-thin trade, with Japan and the US out. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips; the digest's 158.70 range top sits just above.
Support: 158.43, 158.40, 158.28
Resistance: 158.51, 158.70
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the friday high at 158.43 and the asian high at 158.40 would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.51 2wk high opens the 158.70 range top; intervention chatter is elevated with liquidity thin
A break of the rising trendline from the Asia low, or loss of the 158.28 swing low (near the 50% fib), ends the HH/HL chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday conditions
09:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below range top · RSI 63 · price 158.449
Higher lows from Asian low; tight hold above broken asian high.
In holiday-thin trade (Japan, US out), USD/JPY built higher lows off the 158.075 asian low. At London open it broke the 158.40 asian high and Friday's 158.43, printing a 158.48 session high. Since then it has held a tight 158.40–158.47 box just under the 158.51 range top, with rising support intact.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 range top opens 158.70
Loss of the 158.40 asian high and rising support returns price toward the 158.283 swing low
Thin holiday liquidity near range top raises MoF verbal intervention risk
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY session
Higher lows off Asian low, London break of Asian high now compressing.
London open pushed USD/JPY through the 158.39 Asian range high and Friday's 158.43 high to a 158.48 session high. Price has since compressed in a 158.40–158.47 band above the london low, RSI(14) near 60, in thin Japan-holiday trade. Higher lows from the 158.075 asian low and the 158.283 swing low remain intact, and the 158.51 range top sits just above.
Support: 158.395, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.51 range top extends the London breakout
Failure to hold the 158.40 london low turns the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 158.283 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline from the asian low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any MoF intervention headlines in holiday-thin liquidity could materially shift this read
Session high at 158.48 capping since 07:00 UTC; a fresh test is the area to watch for rejection or break
Higher lows from Asia low; Asian range broken at London open, now retesting the top.
London open broke the 158.40 Asian high and Friday's 158.43 top, printing a 158.48 London high. Two retests of the Asian high held near 158.395, and the higher-low chain from the 158.075 Asia low is intact with RSI(14) near 61. Liquidity is thin with Japan and the US on holiday, and a softer USD tone has not dented the bid.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.40 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 158.48 London high puts the 158.51 range top in play; intervention rhetoric is a risk in holiday-thin trade
Loss of the 158.28 swing low, near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia low–London high leg, breaks the higher-low trendline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone; US CPI on Wed is the larger driver
Higher lows from the Asia low; London broke above the Asian high and is holding.
Price has made higher lows from the 158.075 Asia low and the 158.283 swing low. The London open lifted it through the Asian high near 158.40 to a 158.48 session high. It is now in a tight 158.40–158.47 consolidation with RSI(14) near 63, in thin trade with Japan and the US on holiday.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.48 session high brings the 158.51 range top into play, a level flagged as intervention-sensitive
Failure to hold the 158.40 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 158.283 swing low
A break of rising support from the asia low would end the higher-low sequence
Thin holiday liquidity raises spike risk on MoF headlines; Fed's Hammack speaks 16:50 UTC
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 73 · price 158.46
Asian range broken higher at London open; 158.40 retest held.
London open broke the Asian high at 158.40 and printed a session high at 158.48. The 158.40 retest held, keeping the higher-low chain off the 158.075 Asian low intact, with RSI(14) near 72. The move came on thin holiday trade with Japan and the US out, and the 158.51 range top sits just overhead.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.40 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break inside the Asian range
Loss of the 158.28 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the intraday HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 158.51 range top clears the session high and the multi-week cap
Thin holiday liquidity raises MoF verbal intervention risk on any push through the range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wed US CPI are the next scheduled USD catalysts
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 70 · price 158.457
Asian range high broken at London open; higher-low chain intact, price pressing under the range top.
London open broke the 158.40 Asian high and Friday's 158.43 high, printing a session high at 158.48. That extends the higher-low rally off the 158.075 Asian low. Price is holding just under the 158.51 range top with RSI(14) near 70, in thin holiday trade as Japan and the US are shut and the digest flags a softer USD on lower yields.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.40 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.283 swing low breaks the higher-low line and the rally structure
Acceptance above the 158.51 range top opens the 158.54 area; thin holiday liquidity raises MoF intervention-headline risk
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD read
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below range top · RSI 68 · price 158.444
Higher highs and higher lows from the 158.08 Asian low; Asian range high broken at London open.
London open cleared the Asian high at 158.40 and Friday's 158.43 peak, printing a 158.48 session high just under the 158.51 range top. The higher lows from the 158.08 Asian low are intact, RSI(14) is near 68, and holiday-thin trade with Japan and the US out is keeping bars small.
Support: 158.40, 158.28, 158.08
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.51 range top extends the breakout into the zone where intervention rhetoric has capped spikes
A slip back below the 158.40 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.28 swing low, near the 50% retracement of the 158.08–158.48 leg, breaks the higher lows trendline and the HL chain
Thin holiday liquidity is flagged as an intervention window, and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows from Asian low; London broke Asian high, now retesting it.
The London open pushed USD/JPY through the 158.40 asian high and Friday's 158.43 peak to a 158.48 london high. Price has since eased back to retest 158.41. Higher lows since the 158.075 asian low keep the rising trendline intact, with softer US yields offset by a soft yen in thin Japan/US holiday trade. RSI(14) is near 68 and the 158.51 range top, where intervention risk sits, is just overhead.
Support: 158.40, 158.283, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.40 asian high would turn the London push into a false break
Loss of the 158.283 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline; the 38.2% fib of the asian low-london high leg sits near 158.33
158.51 range top is the area to watch for rejection or break; thin holiday liquidity raises MoF intervention headline risk
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 74 · price 158.449
Higher lows off Asia low; London open broke Asian range and Friday high.
London open lifted USDJPY through the Asian range high at 158.40 and the Friday high at 158.43 to a session high of 158.48, extending the higher-low chain from the 158.075 Asia low on holiday-thin liquidity. Price sits just under the 158.51 range top that desks flag as intervention-sensitive. RSI(14) is near 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 158.43, 158.28, 158.075
Resistance: 158.48, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the friday high at 158.43 turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.28 swing low (50% fib of the Asia low to session high leg) ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.51 range top opens fresh upside; MoF verbal intervention risk is elevated in today's thin holiday trade
US 10y yield drift lower into Wednesday's CPI could cap the push at the session high
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows from Asia low · RSI 66 · price 158.367
HL chain since 01:00 UTC, pressing Asia high at London open.
Thin Asia trade on Japan's Sports Day holiday saw USD/JPY build higher lows off the 158.075 Asia low. The 06:15 UTC dip held the 158.283 swing low, just above the 38.2% of the 158.075–158.393 leg, and price now sits under the 158.40 Asia high and 158.428 Friday high as London opens, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 158.283, 158.20, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428, 158.51
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.40 Asia high and 158.428 Friday high leaves the 158.51 range top in view, the area where intervention-risk headlines have capped the pair.
A break of the 158.283 swing low takes out the higher-low trendline and exposes the 158.20 pivot, then the 158.075 Asia low.
Holiday-thin liquidity keeps MoF verbal-intervention headlines live; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk.
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asian low, momentum firm · RSI 70 · price 158.37
Higher-low chain off 158.075, pressing Asian high inside Friday range.
Asia trade was thin with Japan out for Sports Day. Price dipped to the 158.075 Asian low, then rebuilt a higher-low chain back to the 158.40 Asian high with RSI(14) near 70. Into London open, price sits just below the 158.43 Friday high, still inside Friday's 158.05–158.43 range, with ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 158.283, 158.234, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 Friday high exposes the 158.51 range top
Loss of the 158.28 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the intraday HL chain; fib 50% at 158.23 is next
Failure at the 158.40 Asian high keeps the Friday range intact, with the 158.075 Asian low as the floor
Thin holiday liquidity leaves room for MoF verbal warnings; Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC
Holiday-thin Asia session, with Japan out for Sports Day, has built a 158.08–158.40 range. The recovery from the 158.075 session low stalled at 158.39, just under the session high and Friday's prior high at 158.43. Price is easing toward the 158.28 pullback low into the London open as softer US yields trim the dollar.
Support: 158.283, 158.234, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high and 158.43 prior high exposes the 158.51 range top
Loss of the 158.28 pullback low opens the fib 50% retracement of the Asia leg near 158.23
Break of the 158.075 session low invalidates the intraday recovery
Intraday rebound, stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 158.331
Higher-low chain from 158.075 capped at 158.40, inside the 158.05–158.43 two-day range.
Thin Asia session with Japan out for Sports Day: price recovered from the 158.075 Asian low in a higher-low chain to 158.393, then hit rejection just under the 158.40 session high. It is easing to 158.33 into London open, holding the 158.32 micro low with RSI(14) near 60, while softer US yields keep upside follow-through limited.
Support: 158.32, 158.27, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.43, 158.51
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high opens the 158.43 friday high, then the 158.51 range top
Loss of the 158.32 micro low shifts focus to the 158.27 fib 38.2 of the overnight rebound
Break below the 158.075 asian low unwinds the session rebound and retests Friday's 158.05 floor
MoF verbal warnings in holiday-thin liquidity and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC can shift this read
Higher lows off 158.075, lower high at 158.393 under 158.40.
Late Asia session in thin Japan-holiday trade: USD/JPY climbed off the 158.075 asian low on a chain of higher lows. The move stalled at 158.393, a rejection just under the 158.40 asian high, with the friday high at 158.43 above. Price is now testing the rising trendline near 158.32, with fib 38.2 at 158.27 below.
Support: 158.272, 158.20, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.43 friday high would break the Asian range top and Friday's high
A close below the rising trendline and the 158.20 pullback low reopens the 158.075 asian low
London open in about 1h. Thin holiday liquidity keeps the intervention-headline risk elevated.
Higher lows off the 158.075 Asia low, now testing the 158.40–158.43 range top.
Thin Asia session (Tokyo holiday) bottomed at the 158.075 session low and has climbed in a higher-low chain from the 158.195 higher low. Price broke the 158.26 prior pivot and is back at the 158.40 session high, just under the 158.43 Friday high that capped the 158.05–158.43 two-session range. RSI(14) is near 74, hot but not extreme. The rise runs into the 158.36–158.54 area the market treats as an intervention-sensitive cap.
Support: 158.26, 158.195, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.43 Friday high breaks the two-session range top
Rejection at the 158.40 session high with a close back below the 158.26 prior pivot turns the move into a range-top failure
A break below the rising trendline and the 158.195 higher low ends the higher-low sequence
MoF/US-Japan FX headlines in thin holiday liquidity could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend off the Asian low, RSI hot · RSI 74 · price 158.37
Higher lows since 158.08, testing Asian range top.
Late in a thin, holiday-hit Asia session, USD/JPY has climbed in a higher-low chain from the 158.08 Asian low along a rising trendline. It is now pressing the 158.40 Asian high with RSI(14) near 74, just under Friday's 158.43 high, while the dollar's yield-led dip limits follow-through.
Support: 158.26, 158.08
Resistance: 158.40, 158.43, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 Friday high opens the 158.50 round number, the top of the reported 157.50–158.50 box
Failure at the 158.40 Asian high and a close back below the ema20 near 158.26 breaks the rising trendline and points back toward the 158.08 Asian low
Intervention rhetoric or a US-Japan IMF-sidelines readout in thin holiday liquidity could gap price lower
London open in about 90 minutes; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC
05:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, testing session top · RSI 62 · price 158.356
Higher-low chain from 158.075 inside a 158.075–158.40 Monday session range.
Thin Japan-holiday Asia session: an early spike to the 158.40 session high faded to the 158.075 session low as softer US sentiment trimmed the dollar. A higher-low chain then lifted price back to 158.356 into the 158.36 cap flagged in the digest, with the 158.26 prior high now underneath. RSI(14) ~62 is not stretched, and the session high and Friday high at 158.43 sit just overhead.
Support: 158.26, 158.195, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high clears the Asian range top; Friday high 158.43 is next overhead
Loss of the rising trendline and the 158.26 prior high puts the higher-low chain at risk; the 158.195 swing low is the next marker
A pullback holding the 50% retracement of the Asia leg fib (~158.22) keeps the higher-low read intact
A break of the 158.075 session low flips the session structure to lower lows
Japan holiday liquidity and US-Japan talks on the IMF sidelines carry intervention-headline risk above 158.25 into London open
Higher lows from 158.075, pressing recovery high inside Friday range.
Late Asia session on a thin Japan holiday. Price dropped from the 158.40 session high to the 158.075 session low, then built higher lows back to 158.33, retracing about 79% of the Asia decline. It is now testing the 158.35 recovery high, with the 158.40 session high and the 158.43 Friday high just above. That area overlaps the 158.36–158.54 intervention-sensitive zone flagged in the digest.
Support: 158.26, 158.195, 158.075
Resistance: 158.35, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 Friday high breaks the Friday range top and brings 158.54 into view
Rejection at the 158.35 recovery high or 158.40 session high, followed by a close back below the 158.26 flip level, reopens the 158.195 higher low
Loss of the 158.075 session low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the Friday range floor near 158.02 in play
Thin holiday liquidity with price above 158.25 keeps MoF intervention-headline risk live into London open; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC
Higher lows off 158.075, capped below 158.40 session high.
In holiday-thin Asia, with Tokyo out for Sports Day, an early push to 158.40 faded to the 158.075 asian low. Price has since built a higher-low chain back above the fib 61.8% at 158.28, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR around 5 pips. The 158.40 session high and Friday's 158.43 prior high sit just overhead.
Support: 158.276, 158.195, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.43 prior high breaks both the Asian range and Friday's range top
A break below the higher-low line and the 158.20 swing low reopens the 158.075 asian low
Japanese intervention rhetoric or headlines from the US-Japan IMF meeting can override intraday structure above 158.25
London open liquidity may test the 158.40 session high; Fed's Hammack follows at 16:50 UTC
04:32 UTC
Short-term recovery inside the Asian range · RSI 63 · price 158.265
Higher lows off 158.075, stalling at 61.8% retrace of Asia drop.
Holiday-thin Asia session with Japan out for Sports Day. USD/JPY faded the 158.40 asia high to a 158.075 session low on easing US yields, then built a chain of rising lows back to the fib 61.8 retrace at 158.276, where the last two bars have stalled. Price sits mid-range, inside both the Asian range and Friday's 158.02–158.43 range, with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 158.20, 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.276, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.276 (fib 61.8) opens a retest of the 158.40 asia high and 158.43 friday high
Close below 158.20 breaks the rising lows and returns focus to the 158.11 higher low and 158.075 session low
Thin liquidity until London open; intervention rhetoric or headlines from the US-Japan IMF meeting near 158.25+ could jolt the pair
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Higher lows off 158.075 inside Monday's 158.075–158.40 session range.
Thin Asia session with Japan out for Sports Day. After the early fade from the 158.40 session high to the 158.075 session low, price has printed a higher low at 158.11 and a swing low at 158.195, and now sits near the 50% fib just under the 158.263 swing high. Softer US yields are capping the dollar, but the pair is still holding the middle of the 158.075–158.428 Friday high range.
Support: 158.195, 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.263, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.263 swing high opens a retest of the 158.40 session high and the 158.428 friday high
Break of the 158.195 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 158.11 higher low and the 158.075 session low
Holiday-thin liquidity and US-Japan IMF-meeting or intervention headlines near 158.25 could jolt the range
Higher lows from session low, capped below 158.26.
Thin Asia session with Tokyo shut for Sports Day. Price faded from the 158.40 session high to the 158.075 session low, then built a chain of rising lows and is now stalling at the 50% fib of that drop, just under the 158.263 micro high and the 158.25 area flagged in the digest. RSI(14) is near 60, ATR(14) about 5 pips, and EMA50 is flat near 158.22.
Support: 158.195, 158.075
Resistance: 158.263, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.263 micro high reopens the 158.40 session high, with the 158.428 friday high just above
Break below the 158.195 higher low snaps the rising lows line and puts the 158.075 session low back in play
Holiday-thin liquidity: moves through 158.25–158.40 can overextend relative to the 5-pip ATR
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC; any US-Japan IMF-sidelines FX language could shift this read
Higher lows off 158.075 inside the 158.075–158.40 Asian range.
Holiday-thin Asia session (Japan out) has retraced roughly half of the drop from the 158.40 Asian high to the 158.075 session low, carving a higher low at 158.11 and a pullback low at 158.195. The bounce met rejection at the 158.26 swing high, right at the 158.25 area in focus for intervention and Japan–US IMF-meeting headlines. Price is pinned mid-retrace, inside Friday's range below the 158.43 friday high.
Support: 158.195, 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.263, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 swing high extends the higher-low sequence toward the 158.40 asian high and the 158.43 friday high
Loss of the 158.195 pullback low and the 158.11 higher low breaks the recovery and returns focus to the 158.075 session low
Japan–US IMF-sidelines headlines or MoF rhetoric near 158.25 could abruptly shift this read
London open in about 3h brings liquidity back; Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range 158.075–158.40; bounce off Asian low capped at 158.26.
Holiday-thin Asia session, with Japan out for Sports Day. The recovery from the 158.075 Asian low met rejection at the 158.26 swing high, just under the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop and beside the 158.25 area the digest flags for intervention focus. A higher-low chain and rising support keep the tape compressed beneath the 158.40 Asian high.
Support: 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.26, 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 swing high reopens the 158.40 asian high and 158.43 friday high
Break of rising support and the 158.11 higher low puts the 158.075 asian low back in play
US-Japan IMF-sidelines headlines on FX could jolt this thin tape
Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
Lower highs from 158.40 meet higher lows from 158.075; compression near 158.21.
Thin Asia session with Japan out for Sports Day. Monday's open spike to 158.40 faded to a 158.075 session low; higher lows since have lifted price back to the 158.26 Monday open, where it met rejection between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the drop fib, right by the 158.25 area the digest flags for intervention rhetoric. RSI(14) is near 50 and ATR is about 6 pips, so momentum is flat with price compressing between the lower-highs line and the rising lows.
Support: 158.15, 158.075, 158.05
Resistance: 158.26, 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
Loss of the 158.15 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 158.075 session low, then the 158.05 Friday low
An M15 close above the 158.26 Monday open clears the lower-highs line and the 61.8% drop fib, opening the 158.40 open spike and the 158.43 Friday high
Japan–US IMF-sidelines headlines and Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read; holiday liquidity amplifies spikes
Asia session range 158.075–158.40, higher lows forming off the low.
Holiday-thin Asia session, with Japan out for Sports Day: the early push to the 158.40 session high met rejection and faded to a 158.075 session low. A chain of higher lows off that low has lifted price back to the 50% retrace near 158.25, RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.40 session high, then the 158.428 friday high, breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.075 session low
Stalling at the 50% retrace of the session high-to-low move keeps the range intact
Headlines from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting are a JPY-side risk in thin liquidity
02:47 UTC
Asian down-leg stalling, higher low in place · RSI 48 · price 158.214
Asian range 158.075–158.40; higher low at 158.11, price at the 38.2% retrace.
In a holiday-thin Asia session (Japan closed for Sports Day), USD/JPY was rejected at the 158.40 session high and faded to a 158.075 session low. A higher low at 158.11 has since lifted price back over the EMA20 to the 38.2% retrace near 158.20, with EMA50 at 158.22 and the fib 50% at 158.24 directly overhead.
Support: 158.19, 158.11, 158.075
Resistance: 158.24, 158.28, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.24 fib 50% opens the 158.28 Friday close, then the 158.40 session high
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low exposes the 158.075 session low and resumes the Asian fade
Loss of the ema20 near 158.19 returns price to the lower half of the Asian range
London open liquidity return, or any headline from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting, could break the Asian range
Lower highs from 158.40 session high, higher lows off 158.075, compressing below 38.2% fib.
Holiday-thin Asia session (Japan out for Sports Day) saw a spike to the 158.40 session high, short of Friday's 158.43 prior high, then a slide of lower highs to a 158.075 session low. The bounce from there has stalled twice near 158.20, the 38.2% fib of the drop, with price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 41, consistent with softer US sentiment capping the dollar.
Support: 158.075, 157.984
Resistance: 158.20, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.20 (38.2% fib) opens the 158.24–158.28 50–61.8% zone
Failure to hold the 158.075 session low exposes Friday's 157.98 prior low
Thin liquidity with Japan closed; any US-Japan IMF-sidelines headline could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Lower highs from 158.40, holding a 158.08–158.20 range.
Holiday-thin Asia session (Japan out for Sports Day) rejected at the 158.40 session high, just under Friday's 158.43 prior high. Lower highs then took price to a 158.075 session low; it now consolidates beneath the 158.20 swing high with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 158.075, 157.984
Resistance: 158.204, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.20 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and revives the 158.40 session high
Failure to hold the 158.075 session low exposes 158.00 and the 157.98 friday low
London open liquidity can widen the current 6–7 pip bar ranges
US-Japan IMF-sidelines FX headlines or Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 35 · price 158.129
Lower-high chain off 158.40 rejection, pressing session low.
The Asia session opened with a small gap lower. Price then tagged 158.40, just under Friday's 158.43 prior high and the 158.50 cap flagged in the JPY digest, and was rejected there. Since then a lower-high chain, last at 158.204, has carried price down to a 158.075 session low. RSI(14) sits near 35, and the gain from Friday's JGB-driven yen softness has not extended into the open.
Support: 158.075, 158.048, 158.00
Resistance: 158.204, 158.289, 158.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.204 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.075 session low exposes Friday's 158.048 swing low (fri swing lo) and the 158.00 round number
Reclaiming the 158.289 Friday close would neutralise the opening gap
Any FX-concern language from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting could trigger a sharp yen-up move
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower-high/lower-low sequence beneath the 158.40–158.43 range cap; bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib.
Early in the Asia session, USDJPY was rejected at the 158.40 range cap for a third time after Friday's two tests near 158.43. It has since printed lower highs down to a 158.075 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 158.20. RSI(14) is near 38 and price sits below both EMAs. The 158.05 friday low sits just under, and Friday's JGB-driven yen softness has not carried through Monday's open.
Support: 158.075, 158.05
Resistance: 158.20, 158.327, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 158.20 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 158.33 open spike is the next reference
Failure to hold the 158.075 session low and the 158.05 friday low extends the lower-low chain
Acceptance above the 158.43 range cap would void the rejection read
Any FX-concern language from a US-Japan meeting on the IMF sidelines could trigger a sharp yen-up move
Early Asia session: rejection at the 158.40 session high, just under the 158.43 Friday high, gave way to a lower-high chain down to a 158.08 session low that held above the 158.05 Friday low. The last two bars lifted off that base and poked above the descending trendline toward the 38.2% fib near 158.20 of the session selloff, with RSI(14) near 41 and thin holiday-start liquidity.
Support: 158.048
Resistance: 158.289, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.08 session low and the 158.05 Friday low would extend the lower-low sequence
Holding above the descending trendline and reclaiming the 50% fib and the 158.29 Friday close would neutralise the session selloff read
Rejection again at 158.40–158.43 (session high / Friday high) keeps that double cap intact
Any US-Japan FX language from the IMF-sidelines meeting (timing unconfirmed) could gap the yen higher
Lower highs / lower lows from the 158.40 Monday high; stalling above session low.
Monday opened soft after the weekend. The pop to the 158.40 monday high was rejected just under Friday's 158.42–158.43 tops, and the Asia session has since printed a lower-high chain back below the 158.29 friday close and Friday's 158.16 NY low. Price is now compressing at 158.08–158.12 above the session low, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 6 pips. Thin inputs and no fresh USD/JPY news since Friday leave the IMF-sidelines US-Japan meeting as the open headline risk.
Support: 158.075, 158.048, 158.00
Resistance: 158.18, 158.29, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.075 session low exposes the 158.048 friday low and the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of the 158.18 lower high, which sits near the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence; above that, the 50–61.8% fib band at 158.24–158.28 overlaps the friday close
Any FX-concern language from the US-Japan IMF-sidelines meeting or MoF rhetoric could jolt the pair outside the ~6-pip ATR
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD input
Asia-open rejection at 158.40, stepping lower to new session low.
Monday's early Asia session rejected the 158.40 session high just shy of Friday's 158.43 top. Price has since stepped down a lower-high sequence along the descending trendline to a 158.09 session low, through Friday's NY low near 158.16, with RSI(14) ~36 and not yet oversold. Weekend-thin flow carries Friday's firm-USD tone, but there has been no fresh catalyst since Friday.
Support: 158.093, 158.048, 158.00
Resistance: 158.181, 158.247, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.18 lower high and the descending trendline negates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 158.09 session low exposes Friday's 158.05 london low and the 158.00 round number
A retrace stalling at the 158.25 fib 50% keeps the lower-high chain intact; 158.40 session high caps above
US-Japan IMF-sidelines headlines or MoF FX rhetoric are unscheduled risks that could abruptly shift this read
00:32 UTC
Intraday pullback inside range · RSI 43 · price 158.163
Monday's Asia session opened slightly below Friday's 158.29 close. Price was rejected at the 158.40 session high, just under the 158.43 friday high, then slid to a 158.11 session low below both EMAs. The pair sits mid-range with no fresh driver, and yen-supportive FX rhetoric around the IMF meetings remains the event risk.
Support: 158.11, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.25, 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.11 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.05 fri dip low
Reclaim of the 158.25 50% fib, near ema20, neutralises the Monday pullback
Break of 158.05 exposes the 157.76 friday low and ends the range read
Any US-Japan FX statement or MoF rhetoric on the IMF sidelines could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since open · RSI 38 · price 158.121
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.40 Monday high into the Asia session.
The early Asia session rally stalled at the 158.40 Monday high, just under the 158.43 Friday high. Price has since stepped lower to 158.11, giving back part of Friday's move that was driven by the US-Japan yield gap, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 37. Friday's London swing low at 158.05 is the next reference below.
Support: 158.048, 158.00, 157.757
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.428
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the fib 38.2 at 158.22 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.05 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number, then the friday low at 157.76
Rejection again at the monday high 158.40 or friday high 158.43 keeps the range top intact
US-Japan FX remarks around the IMF meetings or MoF verbal warnings could jolt the yen at any time
00:01 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since Monday open · RSI 42 · price 158.168
Session high rejected, testing opening low.
Monday's early Asia session opened flat to Friday's 158.29 close and spiked to a 158.40 session high, then faded through five straight lower highs. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of Friday's 157.76–158.43 rally, just above the 158.13 session low. RSI(14) is near 42, below both EMAs, with no fresh news since Friday's yen-negative JGB-driven move.
Support: 158.13, 158.05, 157.76
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40, 158.43
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 session low breaks the Monday opening range and exposes the 158.05 swing low (50–61.8% of the Friday rally fib)
Loss of 158.05 opens the path toward the 157.76 Friday Asia low (fri asia low)
Reclaim of the 158.29 Friday close breaks the lower-high trendline off the 158.40 session high
Any US-Japan FX language around the IMF meetings could trigger a sharp yen bid; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC