USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovered from early London low, now flat and compressing · RSI 58 · price 158.367
Tight 158.25–158.38 range since 18:00 UTC with higher lows into the range top.
The BoJ-headline whipsaw at 08:45 UTC printed a 157.83 low. Price then rallied through the London-NY transition to the 158.46 NY high, faded to the 158.25 NY low, and held above the 38.2% retracement of that rally. Since 18:00 UTC it has ranged in a 13-pip box with higher lows and is now pressing the 158.38 range top into early Asia. ATR near 3 pips reflects pre-CPI compression.
Support: 158.254, 158.188, 158.00
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.531
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 range top opens the 158.46 NY high, then the 158.53 Asian high
Break below the higher-lows line and the 158.25 NY low exposes the 158.19 Asian low and the 158.00 round number
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst and could break this compression decisively
23:31 UTC
Flat after NY recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 158.345
Tight post-NY range 158.28–158.37 above 23.6% retrace.
The BoJ-headline whipsaw printed the 157.83 low during London. NY then recovered to a 158.46 ny high as US yields rose, and price has since compressed into a 158.28–158.37 range through the rollover, holding above the 23.6% retrace of the London low–NY high move. Asia opens flat on a roughly 3-pip ATR with US CPI ahead.
Support: 158.28, 158.25, 158.00
Resistance: 158.37, 158.46, 158.54
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.28 range low exposes the 158.25 swing low and the 38.2% retrace near 158.22
Break of the 158.37 range top reopens the 158.46 ny high, then the 158.54 asia high
Failure of the 158.22 retrace puts the London higher low at the 158.00 round number back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the likely catalyst to break the compression
BoJ Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC and any MoF FX rhetoric could shift the yen side
The BoJ-report whipsaw set the 157.83 London low, then NY recovered to a 158.46 NY high as US yields rose. Since then price has compressed into a roughly 10-pip box, 158.27 to the 158.37 range top, into the Asia session open. RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips show pre-CPI drift, with the 23.6% retrace of the London low–NY high fib at 158.31 inside the box.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.37, 158.46, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.37 range top reopens the 158.46 NY high, with the 158.58 day high beyond
Failure to hold the 158.25 NY low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 38.2% fib near 158.22
Below 158.00, the 157.83 London low is the last swing from the BoJ whipsaw
BoJ Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC and Tokyo-hours MoF rhetoric could break the Asia range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Higher-low recovery off 157.83, now a tight 158.25–158.37 range.
The BoJ-report whipsaw in London printed a 157.83 low, then NY yields lifted price back above the 158.19 Asian low to a session high at 158.46. Since then it has drifted in a 158.25–158.37 range into the Asia open, holding above the 23.6% of the recovery, with RSI(14) flat near 55 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 158.254, 158.188
Resistance: 158.372, 158.464
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.37 range top re-opens the 158.46 session high
Break of the 158.25 ny swing low puts the 38.2% retrace near 158.22 and the 158.19 Asian low in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read; BoJ Koeda speaks Thu 01:30 UTC
22:46 UTC
Recovered from London low, now flat · RSI 54 · price 158.349
Higher lows off 157.83, tight 158.25–158.37 range under the NY high.
London broke below the 158.19 Asian low and spiked to a 157.83 London low as Ueda's inflation comments and US-Japan FX-contact remarks firmed the yen, but the break failed. NY rebuilt higher lows to a 158.46 NY high short of the 158.50 round number, and price is now coiling above the 158.25 swing low in thin rollover trade ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.254, 158.188, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.50, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 NY high exposes the 158.50 round number and the 158.64 Asian high
Break of the 158.25 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence and puts the 158.19 Asian low back in play
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 157.83 London low is the reference below
FX-contact or intervention headlines near the 158.50 round number remain a tail risk
22:31 UTC
Sideways after London-low recovery · RSI 56 · price 158.347
Tight 158.25–158.37 band below NY high.
USD/JPY spiked to a london low of 157.83 after Ueda and Takaichi stressed US-Japan FX contact. It then built a higher low at 158.01 and rallied to a 158.46 ny high during NY hours. Since then price has compressed into a 158.25–158.37 band into rollover with ATR near 4 pips, holding above the 23.6% fib of that leg.
Support: 158.254, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 ny high reopens the 158.64 window high
Failure to hold the 158.25 swing low exposes the 158.01 higher low
Loss of 157.83 london low would mark a lower-low break of the session structure
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF or intervention headlines in the Asia session
Higher lows from 157.83, now compressed in a 158.25–158.37 band.
The early-London spike to the 157.83 session low on Ueda/Takaichi FX-contact remarks was fully reversed. NY built a higher low at 158.01 before running into rejection at the 158.46 NY high. Since the NY close, price has compressed between the 158.25 NY pullback low and the 158.37 range top. It sits on the 23.6% of the London-NY fib with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 158.254, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.372, 158.464, 158.639
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.25 ny pullback exposes the 38.2% London-NY fib at 158.22 and the 158.01 higher low
M15 close above the 158.37 range top re-opens the 158.46 ny high, with the 158.64 prior high beyond
A break under the 157.83 session low would print a lower-low and void the recovery structure
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) and Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a tail risk
22:01 UTC
Recovering from London low, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 158.318
Tight post-NY range 158.25–158.38 below the 158.46 NY high, lower high vs 158.64 Asia high.
The Asian range high at 158.64 capped the open, and the pair bled lower through Asia into a London spike to the 157.83 day low as Ueda and Takaichi stressed US-Japan FX contact. NY recovered to the 158.46 NY high before fading, and the last ~16 bars are compressed between the 158.25 NY low and the 158.38 range top. RSI is neutral near 49, ATR is about 4 pips and price is parked near the 23.6% fib of the London low–NY high leg.
Support: 158.254, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.641
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.25 NY low opens the 38.2% fib near 158.22 and the 158.00 psych level
A close above the 158.38 range top brings a retest of the 158.46 NY high back into play, with the 158.64 Asia high above
A break of the 157.83 day low would mark a lower-low for the session sequence
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Japanese official FX remarks or intervention headlines remain a tail risk for sharp spikes
Tight 158.25–158.46 range with lower highs from the NY high, below the asia high.
London broke the asia low and spiked to a 157.83 london low on Ueda's FX-contact remarks. Price reclaimed the asia low, and NY lifted it to the 158.46 ny high, still capped under the 158.53 asia high. Since then it has compressed in a 158.25–158.46 range into the Asia open, with lower highs, RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 158.254, 158.113, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.529, 158.639
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 pm swing low breaks the post-NY range and exposes the asia low at 158.11
M15 close above the 158.46 ny high puts the 158.53 asia high and 158.64 prior high in play
Loss of the 157.83 london low would invalidate the London false break and reclaim
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~15h) and BoJ Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a tail risk
21:31 UTC
Range after intraday round-trip, momentum flat · RSI 43 · price 158.31
Compressing 158.29–158.36 below NY session high; lower highs since 15:00 UTC.
The Asia session sold off from the 158.64 prior high as Ueda and FX-contact remarks firmed the yen. London's spike to the 157.83 day low was reversed within the bar, and the NY session recovery stalled at the 158.46 session high. Price is now drifting in a tight band above the 158.25 swing low, sitting on the 23.6% fib of the London-NY rally with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.22, then the 158.00 round number
Recovery above the 158.46 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.64 prior high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a soft core print puts the 157.83 day low back in focus
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and any MoF FX remarks are intraday headline risk
Lower highs off 158.46 NY high, holding above 158.25 swing low.
USDJPY spiked to a 157.83 day low during the London session as Ueda and Takaichi flagged close US-Japan FX contact. A higher low at 158.01 preceded the NY rally to a 158.46 NY high, where price met rejection. Post-NY trade is thin, with lower highs and a 158.38 minor high capping a drift onto the 23.6% retracement, just above the 158.25 swing low.
Support: 158.254, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 swing low opens the 38.2% fib near 158.22 and the 158.01 higher low
Break above the lower-highs trendline and 158.38 minor high puts the 158.46 NY high back in focus; the 158.64 prior high sits beyond
Loss of the 157.83 day low would align with the 157.85 support flagged in the macro digest
US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) and any intervention headlines could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Range-bound after London dip, NY recovery fading · RSI 41 · price 158.301
Lower highs from the 158.464 NY high over a 158.254 swing low; late-NY compression.
Yen-firming FX-contact remarks from Ueda and Takaichi drove a spike to the 157.829 London low. NY then recovered to 158.464 but was rejected well short of the 158.653 Asia high. Late NY is compressing between the 158.254 NY swing low and a 158.365 lower high, with ATR(14) near 5 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.254, 158.00, 157.829
Resistance: 158.365, 158.464, 158.653
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.365 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the 158.464 NY high
Loss of the 158.254 NY swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.22 and the 158.00 round number
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a soft core print risks a test of the 157.829 London low and 157.85 support
Bowman at 09:40 UTC could shift the read during the London session
Higher lows from 157.83, late-NY compression below 158.46.
USDJPY printed a 157.83 session low early in London after Ueda and Takaichi stressed US-Japan FX contact, then built a higher low at the 158.00 round number and rallied to a 158.46 NY high. Late-NY trade is compressing at 158.25–158.38 after the 18:00 UTC NY pullback held near the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg. The pair sits below the 158.46 NY high and the 158.53 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 ny pullback low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 158.00 round number
Acceptance above the 158.46 ny high puts the 158.53 asia high in play, near where supply has capped price
Loss of the 157.83 session low would erase the London-NY recovery
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC and any intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Tight range 158.25–158.37 below the NY session high.
Ueda and FX-contact headlines drove a London-open flush to the 157.83 day low that was quickly bought back. A London base near 158.10 held, and NY lifted price to a 158.46 high before a rejection. Late NY is chopping between the 158.25 swing low and 158.37 range top, with RSI(14) near 44 and price sitting on the 23.6% retracement of the day-low rally.
Support: 158.25, 158.10, 157.83
Resistance: 158.37, 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.22 and the london base at 158.10
M15 close above the 158.37 range top reopens the ny high at 158.46 and the asian high at 158.53
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; intervention headlines remain a tail risk near the highs
Higher lows off the 157.83 London low, capped below the 158.46 NY high.
London swept below the Asian low to 157.83, near the 157.85 support flagged in the digest, and NY then carried price to a 158.46 session high on yield-differential demand. Since then price has drifted back into a 158.25–158.40 band. It is holding above the 23.6% of the 157.83–158.46 rally and the higher-low trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price still below the 158.53 Asian high and the 158.50–158.56 200-day SMA zone that capped price earlier.
Support: 158.254, 158.113, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.529, 158.654
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 158.11 Asian low
Acceptance above the 158.46 NY high brings the 158.53 Asian high and 158.65 prior high into play
Failure back under 158.11 reopens the 157.83 London low
Japanese intervention headlines in the Asia session, and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Recovery stalled, drifting lower in late NY · RSI 43 · price 158.326
London false break of the Asian low reversed into a NY rally to 158.464, now a lower high and tight consolidation.
The Asia session sold off to the 158.188 Asian low on BoJ-hike bets. London then pushed through it to a 157.829 London low before reversing, and the false break fed a NY rally to a 158.464 session high. That high was rejected below the 158.529 Asia high, and late NY is now compressing between the 158.254 NY low and a 158.377 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 158.254, 158.188, 157.829
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.529
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.254 NY low exposes the 158.188 Asian low and the 38.2% fib near 158.22
Break above the 158.377 lower high puts the 158.464 session high and the 158.529 Asia high back in focus
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips is likely to expand sharply around the release
Lower highs off 158.46 session high, ny low 158.25 holding.
London flushed to a 157.83 london low before NY lifted the pair to a 158.46 session high, short of the 158.53 asian high, as JPY firmed on BoJ-hike and intervention talk. Late NY has printed lower highs, and the 18:00 UTC dip held the ny low at 158.25. Price is coiling near 158.30 with RSI(14) around 41 and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 ny low extends the lower highs sequence toward the 158.00 round number
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 158.46 session high reopens the 158.53 asian high
Holding above the 38.2% of the london-ny leg (~158.22) keeps the London-to-NY recovery structure intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core 0.2% m/m f/c) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling under 158.50 · RSI 42 · price 158.313
Higher lows off 157.83, lower highs since NY peak at 158.46.
London swept below 157.85 to the 157.829 London low and recovered through NY to a 158.464 NY high, still short of the 158.50 cap where the pair was rejected earlier this week as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike and intervention chatter. Late NY has faded to a 158.254 pullback low, RSI(14) near 42, with price just under EMA20 and holding the rising support from the London low.
Support: 158.254, 158.00, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.254 pullback low breaks the rising support and exposes the round number at 158.00
Close above the 158.464 NY high puts the 158.50 cap back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a soft print reopens the 157.829 London low
19:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY recovery, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 158.292
London flushed through the Asian low to 157.83. NY then retraced the full recovery leg back to a 158.46 session high, and late NY has since printed lower highs with a dip to the 158.25 swing low. RSI(14) sits near 38 as the yen firms on BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.254, 158.188, 157.829
Resistance: 158.377, 158.464, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.19 asian low
Close back above the 158.38 lower high negates the fade; the 158.46 session high and the 158.50 round number sit above
Loss of the asian low reopens the 157.83 london low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from the 157.83 London low and a lower high under 158.46, still inside the Asian range.
London's drop to the 157.83 day low reversed straight back above 158.00. The round number then held as a higher low, and NY extended the recovery to 158.46, where it met rejection below the 158.53 Asian high as pre-CPI caution and softer yields capped the pair. Late NY is drifting at 158.31, near the 23.6% fib of the recovery, with the ny low at 158.25 and rising support just beneath.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 ny low and rising support exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.22, then the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.46 ny high reopens the 158.53 Asian high
Break of the 157.83 day low would erase the London false-break read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read; BoJ Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC
18:46 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, pulling back late NY · RSI 50 · price 158.304
London sweep below Asian low reclaimed; NY higher lows capped under Asian high.
London swept the Asian low at 158.19 down to a 157.83 London low and reclaimed it. NY then rallied to a 158.46 NY high, short of the 158.53 Asian high, as pre-CPI dollar squaring and BoJ-hike bets kept the yen firm. Late NY has pulled back to a 158.25 swing low, which is holding the NY higher-lows trendline near the 23.6% of the London-NY leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and price sits below EMA20.
Support: 158.254, 158.188, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.529, 158.692
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 swing low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and exposes the asian low at 158.19 (38.2% fib at 158.22)
Reclaim of the 158.46 NY high reopens the asian high at 158.53, with the prior high at 158.69 above
Failure to hold the asian low puts the 157.83 london low back in view
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
London false break below the Asian low was reclaimed; NY printing lower highs under 158.46.
London broke below the Asian low at 158.11 and reached 157.83 before reversing. NY then extended to a 158.46 session high, which was rejected short of the 158.53 Asian high as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter. Late NY has slipped to the 158.25 pullback low under a lower high at 158.40; price sits below EMA20, on the EMA50, and between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally.
Support: 158.25, 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.40, 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.25 pullback low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.11 Asian low and the 38.2% fib near 158.22
Close above the 158.40 lower high and 158.46 session high negates the fade and puts the 158.53 Asian high back in play
Loss of the 157.83 London low would reopen the earlier false break
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Recovery off session low, now stalling · RSI 47 · price 158.352
Higher low chain from 157.83, compressing in a 158.32–158.46 band.
Asia session selling on BoJ-hike bets ran into a London-open flush to the 157.83 session low that was rejected, and a higher low at 158.01 fed a NY-hours climb to the 158.46 session high. Price has since compressed in a 158.32–158.46 range below the 158.50 psych level and is sitting on the rising trendline from the higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 158.324, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.32 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the fib 50% near 158.15
Close above the 158.46 session high puts the 158.50 psych level and the 158.69 prior high in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and any Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Recovery stalling under the Asian high · RSI 52 · price 158.383
V-recovery from 157.83, now compressing 158.32–158.46 late NY.
The yen firmed in the Asia session on BoJ-hike bets, pushing price through the 158.19 Asian low, and London opened with a sweep to 157.83 that was immediately rejected. NY rebuilt a higher-low chain from 158.01 to a 158.46 session high, still capped below the 158.53 Asian high. Price has since compressed above the 158.32 pullback low, near the 23.6% of the 157.83–158.46 fib, with RSI flat at 52.
Support: 158.32, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53, 158.69
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 session high exposes the 158.53 Asian high, then the 158.69 prior high
Break of the 158.32 pullback low opens the 158.19 Asian low and the 158.01 higher low, i.e. the 50–61.8% zone of the 157.83–158.46 fib
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; the low-impact US budget statement at 18:00 UTC is unlikely to break the current compression
17:31 UTC
Recovering from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 55 · price 158.368
Higher lows since 157.83, consolidating 158.32–158.46 below NY high.
The Asia session slide on yen firmness from BoJ-hike bets extended into a London-open flush to 157.83 (london low) that reversed within the bar. Higher lows at 158.01 and 158.32 (swing low) carried NY to a 158.46 high (ny high) back inside the Asian range, and price has since compressed just above EMA20 into the late NY session.
Support: 158.32, 158.19, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.50, 158.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.32 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 158.19 asian low
Clearance of the 158.46 ny high and the 158.50 round number reopens the 158.64 asian high
Loss of the 38.2% retrace near 158.22 would mark the NY recovery as fading
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2% m/m, could materially shift this read; 18:00 UTC Monthly Budget Statement is minor
17:16 UTC
Uptrend off the London low, momentum flattening · RSI 62 · price 158.405
Higher lows from 157.83, late-NY consolidation under 158.46.
Asia and early-London selling came on yen firmness and softer US yields. It ended in a false break below 157.85 to a 157.83 session low. Price has since built higher lows at 158.007 and the 158.32 NY swing low into a 158.46 session high. Late NY, after London close, it is compressing just under the 158.50 round number where rejections have recurred; RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 158.324, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.50, 158.692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 session high and the 158.50 round number would open a path back toward the 158.69 prior high
Loss of the 158.32 NY swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and puts the 158.007 higher low back in focus
Break of the rising trendline from the 158.007 higher low would undercut the recovery read
US core CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; the Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor risk
17:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, momentum flattening below NY high · RSI 59 · price 158.405
Higher lows from London low 157.83; consolidating under 158.46 NY high.
Asia sold off from the 158.53 Asian high as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets, and London extended it to a 157.83 London low near the 157.85 support zone before a sharp reversal. NY ground higher on a chain of higher lows to the 158.46 NY high, just shy of the 200-day SMA zone at 158.50–158.56, and the 158.32 swing low has held after London close with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 158.32, 158.01, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53, 158.69
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.46 NY high puts the 158.53 Asian high and 200-day SMA zone in play, with the 158.69 prior high beyond
Break of the 158.32 swing low and rising support line ends the NY higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.01 higher low reopens the 157.83 London low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; Bowman at 09:40 UTC could move price earlier
London higher low 158.00, NY high 158.46, now pulling back to trendline.
London flushed to 157.83, briefly under the 157.85 support, then reversed as a false break. NY extended the recovery from the 158.16 break base to a 158.46 session high, stalling short of 158.50 psych as yields eased. Price is back inside the Asian range, testing the rising trendline near the 158.33 pullback low.
Support: 158.33, 158.16, 158.00
Resistance: 158.46, 158.50, 158.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.33 pullback low and rising trendline exposes the 158.16 break base and the 50% fib
Acceptance above the 158.46 session high and 158.50 psych reopens the 158.64 Asian high
Loss of the 158.00 round number, the London higher low, unwinds the NY recovery
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; the core print could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, momentum fading · RSI 64 · price 158.353
Higher lows since 157.83, pulling back from the 158.46 session high.
Asian-session selling from 158.64 ran into a 157.83 london low spike during London, which reversed fast. NY has built higher lows along a rising trendline into a 158.46 session high, now easing toward the 158.33 swing low with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s as the yen stays firm on BoJ-hike talk and yields stall ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 158.33, 158.22, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53, 158.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.33 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 158.22
Loss of the rising trendline from 158.01 shifts the read toward a deeper retrace of the London-low rally
M15 close above the 158.46 session high opens the 158.53 asian high, then the 158.71 prior high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the event that could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, stretched · RSI 79 · price 158.435
HH/HL chain from 157.83 through NY, pressing session high below the 158.50–158.56 cap.
Since the 157.83 spike low early in London, price has built higher lows. NY then broke the 158.00–158.19 consolidation and printed a 158.46 session high, now just under the 158.50–158.56 prior cap that turned price lower on Monday and in Asia. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched as Treasury yields firm into Wednesday's CPI, with the 158.33 swing low as the most recent higher low on rising support.
Support: 158.327, 158.00, 157.829
Resistance: 158.464, 158.53, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.33 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the rising support line
Acceptance above the 158.53 prior cap opens the 158.64 asian high; another rejection there keeps the cap intact
Loss of 158.00 round number would put the 157.83 spike low back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC today
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, approaching Asian high · RSI 73 · price 158.414
HH/HL chain from 157.83 London low, back inside Asian range.
USD/JPY has rebuilt from the 157.83 London spike low. A higher-low chain from 158.01 drove a NY session push back into the 158.19–158.53 Asian range as yields steadied into Wednesday's CPI. The session high at 158.46 sits just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 73 and the 14:30 swing low at 158.33 the nearest pivot.
Support: 158.33, 158.19, 158.01
Resistance: 158.46, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 asian high extends the HH/HL chain beyond the Asian range
Close below the 158.33 swing low breaks the rising trendline and points back toward the 158.19 asian low
Loss of the 158.01 higher low would erase most of the rebound off 157.83
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst; Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low-tier
15:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 65 · price 158.419
V-recovery from 157.83 London low; NY break above 158.36, testing 158.44 session high.
BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter drove the Asia-London slide to a 157.83 London low, which was quickly reclaimed into a higher-low chain at 158.00 and 158.10. The NY session cleared the 158.33–158.36 breakout zone, and price is now pressing the 158.44 session high with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR around 7 pips. The 158.50–158.53 Asia high sits just overhead and capped the pair earlier.
Support: 158.33, 158.10, 157.83
Resistance: 158.44, 158.53, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 Asia high opens the 158.75 prior high
Loss of the 158.33 breakout zone returns price to the higher low at 158.10
A break of 158.10 undoes the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.83 London low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 61 · price 158.357
HH/HL chain since 157.83 false break, pausing below Asian high.
Yen strength on BoJ-hike bets drove Asia selling, and London broke below the Asian low at 158.11 to 157.83 before reversing. NY then broke out of the 158.10 base to a session high at 158.44, short of the Asian high at 158.53 near the 200-day zone. Price is now consolidating above the 158.34 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 158.34, 158.10, 157.83
Resistance: 158.44, 158.53, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high at 158.53 clears the 200-day zone and opens the prior high at 158.75
Failure to hold the pullback low at 158.34 and the rising trendline near 158.27 puts the 158.10 base back in play
A return below the London low at 157.83 negates the false-break read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst. Core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low, stalling · RSI 65 · price 158.376
Higher low and higher high from 157.83, back inside the Asian range.
Asia session selling, with the yen firm on BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter, carried into a London sweep to 157.83. That low was quickly reclaimed, and a higher low at 158.01 led to a first-hour-of-NY breakout through the 158.25 area to an NY high at 158.44. Price is now pausing just below the 158.53 Asian high, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s and the rising support line intact.
Support: 158.25, 158.01, 157.83
Resistance: 158.44, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 Asian high would take price out of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 158.25 breakout area puts the 158.01 higher low and the rally fib midpoint back in focus
A break below the rising support line toward the 157.83 London low would negate the higher-low sequence
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor; Wed 12:30 UTC US CPI is the larger risk to this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, testing session high · RSI 70 · price 158.39
Higher-low chain from 157.83; NY broke the London range and is back inside the Asian range.
A London-morning sweep to 157.83 reversed, and a higher-low chain (158.01, 158.09, 158.10) fed an NY breakout from the 158.00–158.19 London range to a 158.436 session high. That recovers most of the Asia-session slide, which ran on yen firmness from BoJ-hike bets. RSI(14) is near 70; the Asian high at 158.53 sits overhead, with the 158.25 breakout base below.
Support: 158.25, 158.10, 157.83
Resistance: 158.436, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.436 session high exposes the 158.53 Asian high, a level repeatedly rejected
Failure to hold the 158.25 breakout base puts the london hl at 158.10 and the rising trendline back in play
Break below the london hl at 158.10 ends the higher-low chain; 157.83 london low is the next reference
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the range-break trigger; pre-release moves in Treasury yields or Brent could shift this read before then
14:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 68 · price 158.407
HL at 158.01 after 157.83 low; break above 158.36 swing high.
The NY session extended the rebound off the 157.83 session low set in the London whipsaw, clearing the 158.36 flip level after a higher low at 158.01. Price has recovered most of the yen-led Asia selloff, with the 158.53 asia high as the next cap and RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 158.36, 158.01, 157.83
Resistance: 158.53, 158.75
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.36 flip level keeps the higher-low chain intact; a close back below puts the 158.01 higher low and the 61.8% retracement of the 157.83–158.41 leg in focus
158.53 asia high and 158.75 prior high: area to watch for rejection or break of this rising support sequence
Failure at the 158.01 higher low reopens the 157.83 session low
Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) and Budget Statement (18:00 UTC) are second-tier; Wed US CPI is the event that could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher lows intact · RSI 66 · price 158.339
Higher-low sequence off 157.83, price back inside the Asian range.
London swept below the Asian low to the 157.83 session low on a 55-pip spike bar, then reclaimed 158.00 as the yen's BoJ-driven bid faded. Higher lows at 158.01 and the 158.10 swing low have carried the NY rally into the 158.36 prior high and 158.38 spike high, which sit near the 61.8% of the 158.75–157.83 decline. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.10, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.36, 158.379, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 spike high clears the 61.8% decline retracement and opens the 158.64 Asian high
Rejection at the 158.36 prior high and a break of the 158.10 swing low would end the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 158.01 higher low puts the 157.83 session low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this structure
13:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low, below prior-day levels · RSI 64 · price 158.289
Higher-low sequence since 157.83, session high 158.31 testing fib zone.
Yen strength on BoJ-hike bets dragged the pair through the Asian lows to 157.83 in London, just under the 157.85 support named in the digest, and buyers stepped in sharply there. A higher low at 158.01 and a first-hour-of-NY push off the 158.15 ny base lifted price to a session high at 158.31. That sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the 158.64–157.83 drop, with the 158.36 swing high overhead.
Support: 158.15, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.308, 158.361, 158.574
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.36 swing high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens a run toward the 158.57 day open
Loss of the 158.15 ny base, then the 158.01 higher low, breaks the rising trendline and the recovery sequence
US Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC can jolt the current bar; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for this range
13:31 UTC
Rebounding inside a down day · RSI 59 · price 158.289
Higher lows off the London low, back inside the Asian range.
Asia sold off from the 158.53 asia high to 158.19, extending a rejection near the 200-day area as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets. London's spike to the 157.83 london low failed to hold. The higher lows that followed at the 158.00 round number fed a first-hour-of-NY push to 158.29, back above the asia low and near the 61.8% retrace of the decline, just under the 158.37 swing high.
Support: 158.19, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.37, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.37 swing high opens the 158.53 asia high, which sits just below the 200-day SMA zone
Slip back below the 158.19 asia low turns the NY bounce into a lower high
Loss of the 158.00 round number breaks the rising lows and puts the 157.83 london low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and any Japanese intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 157.83 sweep, testing rebound high.
USDJPY slid from 158.64 through Asia and London as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter. A whipsaw bar at 08:45 UTC swept to 157.83 and snapped back. Higher lows at 157.83 and 158.01 have carried price into the 158.19 rebound high in the first hour of NY, with price above EMA20 but still under EMA50.
Support: 158.10, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.191, 158.379
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 rebound high opens a retest of the 158.38 spike high
Loss of the 158.10 base and the 158.01 higher low breaks the higher-lows chain and puts the 157.83 sweep low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the 157.83–158.38 band
13:02 UTC
Recovering from London low, capped at 158.20 · RSI 53 · price 158.194
Higher lows from 157.83, retesting broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 158.19 and whipsawed to a 157.83 session low, a false break of the 157.85 support as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets and intervention chatter. The recovery has printed a higher low at 158.01 with an intraday base near 158.10, and early NY is now retesting the broken asian low at 158.20, which has capped price for three hours.
Support: 158.10, 158.007, 157.829
Resistance: 158.20, 158.273, 158.361
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.20 reclaims the asian low and opens the london high at 158.27, then the 158.36 swing high
Loss of the 158.10 intraday base and the rising lows line returns focus to the 158.01 higher low
Break below 158.01 voids the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.83 session low back in play
US CPI on Wednesday is the next major catalyst; pre-release positioning could compress ranges
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 44 · price 158.11
Lower highs since the Asian selloff; 158.00–158.19 range after the London flush.
The pair bled through the Asian session from 158.64, then a London-morning spike to 158.38 reversed into a flush to the 157.83 london low. The yen firmed after Ueda's hike-supportive remarks. Since then price has based between the 158.00 round number and the old asia low at 158.19, capped near the 38.2% retracement of the drop and the lower-highs line into the NY open.
Support: 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.19 (asia low) breaks the lower-highs line and opens the path to the 158.38 spike high
Failure to hold the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.83 london low
US Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC; Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 56 · price 158.128
Lower highs from 158.75; higher lows above 158.00 since the London low.
USDJPY slid through the Asia session from 158.64, then London printed a 157.83 session low on a 55-pip whipsaw bar. The rebound has stalled at 158.19, the old Asian low, right at the 38.2% fib, with higher lows near the 158.00 round number. JPY stays firm after Ueda's comments, and oil easing has added to the pressure. Price is compressing at about 158.13 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.36
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.19 asian low reopens the 158.36 swing high
Break of the higher lows and the 158.00 round number puts the 157.83 session low back in play
Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Bowman headlines ahead of Wednesday's US CPI could break the compression
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London low · RSI 45 · price 158.098
Lower highs from 158.75; higher low at 158.00 inside a 158.00–158.19 box.
Monday's slide from 158.75 carried through the Asia session. The London open break of the asian low ran into a 55-pip spike bar to 157.83, the london low, at 08:45 UTC on softer US yields and oil. Late in the London session the rebound has stalled at 158.19. Price is coiling between the 158.00 higher low and the rebound high, retesting 158.11 from below with EMA20 overhead and RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.11, 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.38 spike high
Failure to hold the 158.00 higher low puts the 157.83 london low back in play
Repeated M15 closes back above the 158.11 asian low would neutralise the retest read
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could break the current box
MoF intervention headlines or US CPI positioning ahead of Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; London false break below 158.00 now consolidating 158.00–158.19.
Pressure built through Asia on softer US yields and oil, and London broke below the Asian low before an 08:45 UTC spike to a 157.83 session low, which was quickly reclaimed above the 158.00 round number. Since then price has printed higher lows into the fib 50% near 158.09, capped by a lower high at 158.19, with EMA20 overhead.
Support: 158.00, 157.829
Resistance: 158.191, 158.361
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number reopens the 157.83 session low and breaks the higher lows
Close above the 158.19 lower high, then the 158.36 Asian high, would negate the intraday downtrend read
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) into the NY open could resolve the 158.00–158.19 consolidation; US CPI on Wed is the larger risk
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London low · RSI 45 · price 158.106
Lower highs since Asia; higher low at 158.01 after 157.83 flush.
Asia session extended the slide from 158.53 on softer US yields and oil, and London's 08:45 UTC whipsaw bar ran to a 158.38 spike high before printing the 157.83 session low. The pair has since reclaimed 158.00, with a higher low at 158.01 against a 158.19 lower high near the 38.2% fib of the 158.75–157.83 drop. Late London, RSI(14) is a neutral 45, EMA20 sits just overhead and ATR(14) is about 12 pips.
Support: 158.01, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 158.38 spike high
Failure to hold the 158.01 higher low reopens the 157.83 session low
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) into the NY open could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
MoF intervention headlines could trigger outsized two-way moves
Lower highs below the broken Asian low, testing 158.00.
Asia ground lower from 158.64 to a 158.19 Asian low as softer US yields and oil firmed the yen. London broke that low and swept to a 157.83 session low on a 55-pip two-way spike bar. The rebound was rejected at the broken 158.19 Asian low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the decline, and late London is back testing the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.83 session low
Reclaim of the 158.19 Asian low reopens the 158.38 spike high and voids the lower-high read
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and the NY open could widen the range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs from 158.64; London low at 157.83, then higher lows up to the broken Asian low.
USDJPY slid through the Asia session from 158.64 after another 200-day SMA rejection and fresh intervention chatter. London then broke below the Asian low with a volatile 55-pip bar that set the session low at 157.83. The rebound has retested the broken Asian low at 158.19 from below and stalled near the 38.2% of the decline fib, with RSI(14) at 44 and price under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.19 asian low negates the retest-and-reject read
Reclaim of the 158.38 spike high would neutralise the London downtrend leg
Failure to hold the 158.03 higher low reopens the 157.83 session low
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC during NY hours
Escalating Japanese MoF intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.64; post-spike bounce capped near the 38.2% fib.
The Asia session slide from 158.64 to 158.19 followed renewed intervention chatter, and London extended the lower-low chain with a 55-pip spike bar. That bar dipped below the Asian low at 158.11 and briefly through 158.00, printing 157.83 before snapping back above a 158.05 spike base. The rebound is stalling at a 158.19 lower high near the 38.2% fib, under the 158.38 session high wick, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 158.05, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.05 spike base reopens the 157.83 spike low
Close above the 158.19 lower high opens the 50% fib at 158.24 and the 158.38 session high
MoF intervention remarks remain a tail risk for another wide spike bar; ADP at 12:15 UTC and the NY open could shift the read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Lower highs from 158.64, recovery retesting 38.2% fib.
The slide from 158.64 after Monday's rejection near the 200-day SMA ran through the Asian low at 158.19. The 08:45 UTC London bar, a two-way 55-pip bar amid intervention chatter, set the session low at 157.83. Mid-London, price has rebuilt a higher low at 158.03 and is pressing the 38.2% fib and EMA20 near 158.14.
Support: 158.03, 157.94, 157.83
Resistance: 158.19, 158.24, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.19 asian low reclaims the Asian range and exposes the fib 50% at 158.24
Loss of the 158.03 higher low and the 157.94 pivot low puts the 157.83 session low back in play
A move through the 158.38 spike high would break the lower-high sequence from 158.64
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main swing risk
MoF intervention rhetoric could trigger another spike bar like 08:45 UTC
Lower highs since Asia; Asian range low broken in London, retracing the London leg.
Mid-London: USDJPY broke the 158.19 asian low and whipsawed on the 08:45 UTC spike bar (spike high 158.38) to a session low at 157.83. That extended the Asia-session slide from the 158.50s, in line with the 200-day rejection and softer USD. The rebound from a higher low at 157.94 stalled at the 158.10 bounce high, the 61.8% retracement of the London leg, and RSI(14) sits near 38.
Support: 157.94, 157.83
Resistance: 158.10, 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.19 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range and weaken the downtrend read
Failure at the 158.10 bounce high and a break of the 157.94 higher low brings the 157.83 session low back into play
Recapture of the 158.38 spike high would mark the 08:45 drop as a false break
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) during the NY session could move the pair ahead of Wednesday's CPI
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lows from 158.75 · RSI 31 · price 157.959
Asian range broken lower in early London; consolidating after a wide-range spike to a 157.83 session low.
USDJPY has bled lower from Monday's 158.75 NY-session high and broke the 158.19 Asian low in early London. A 55-pip two-way bar then printed a 157.83 session low and a 158.38 spike high, with yen firm on intervention caution. Price is now holding just under the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR at about 12 pips.
Support: 157.83
Resistance: 158.00, 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.83 session low extends the lower-low sequence below the 157.90 range floor cited in the digest
M15 close back above the 158.00 round number and the 158.05 fib 23.6% would mark the first lower-high challenge
Recovery of the 158.19 Asian low, near the 38.2% fib, would neutralise the London range break
A move through the 158.38 spike high invalidates the downtrend read
Japan MoF intervention rhetoric and US ADP (12:15 UTC) could jolt intraday volatility ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, volatile after London spike · RSI 28 · price 157.93
Lower highs since Monday NY; Asian range broken lower in London.
The slide from Monday's 158.75 NY high ran through Asia and broke the 158.11 Asian low early in the London session. The 08:45 UTC bar then whipsawed 55 pips (158.38–157.83) and closed near its low, with RSI(14) near 28, as yen firmness on intervention wariness and another rejection at the 200-day SMA weighed. Price is holding just above the spike low, around the 157.90 range floor flagged in the digest.
Support: 157.83
Resistance: 158.11, 158.38, 158.53
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.83 spike low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 158.11 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Spike high at 158.38 sits at the 61.8% fib; a move through it reopens the 158.53 Asian high / 200-day SMA zone
Japan MoF intervention rhetoric could produce another wide-range bar like the 08:45 UTC spike
US ADP (12:15 UTC) is second-tier today; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk
Lower highs since Asia, 158.00 swept then rejected.
Asia and early London extended the slide from 158.64 through a chain of lower highs, with the yen firmer on intervention caution despite the soft PPI. Early London swept the 158.00 psych level to a 157.99 sweep low and snapped 38 pips to a 158.38 spike high above the lower-high trendline. The close back at 158.19 leaves that move a false break for now.
Support: 158.11, 157.99
Resistance: 158.27, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Spike high at 158.38 capping again confirms the rejection
Loss of the 158.11 swing low and a close under the 157.99 sweep low resumes the downtrend
Today's ADP and Existing Home Sales are second-tier. US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC is the event that can shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday NY · RSI 30 · price 158.101
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke below the Asian low.
Lower highs have held since Monday's NY high at 158.75. Asia sold off as US yields and oil eased, and London has now pushed through the Asian low near 158.19 to a fresh session low at 158.10. RSI(14) is near 30 with ATR around 7 pips, and the 158.00 round number is the next reference below.
Support: 158.10, 158.00
Resistance: 158.19, 158.27, 158.36
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.19 Asian low would mark the London break as a failure
A reclaim of the 158.27 London high and the lower highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 158.36 swing high caps the structure above that
Sustained trade below the 158.00 round number extends the London leg beyond the session low
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC) fall in NY hours; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk to this read
Asian range broken lower in early London; tight base above session low.
Asia extended the slide from Monday's 158.751 high as US yields and oil eased. Early London broke below the 158.188 Asian low to a 158.113 session low. The bounce stalled at 158.273, near the 23.6% fib of that drop and under the lower-highs trendline, and price is back at 158.18 with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 158.113, 158.00
Resistance: 158.273, 158.361
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.113 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number
Recovery above the 158.273 bounce high and the 158.361 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US ADP 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, could shift the intraday read
Lower highs from 158.36; Asian low broken early London, price back at it.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.53 asia high through the Asian session as yields and oil eased after Monday's rejection near 158.75. Early London broke the 158.19 asian low to a 158.11 session low, and demand stepped in twice around 158.11–158.13. Price is now pinned back near 158.19 under a descending trendline of lower highs from the 158.36 asian top. RSI(14) ~44 and ATR ~7 pips point to a stalled move, not a stretched one.
Support: 158.188, 158.113
Resistance: 158.273, 158.361, 158.529
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 158.11 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 158.36 asian top neutralises the downtrend read
US ADP data (12:15 UTC) during NY hours and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 158.64; Tokyo range broken lower into London.
The Tokyo sell-off from 158.64 came as US yields eased and intervention caution firmed the yen. Price then broke the 158.24 range floor and 158.19 low, reaching 158.11 into the London open. It is now holding a tight 158.13–158.23 band with RSI(14) near 40, and the old range floor caps overhead.
Support: 158.113, 158.00
Resistance: 158.24, 158.361
What it said to watch
Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift the London read on yields
M15 close back above the 158.24 range floor negates the range break
Clearance of 158.36 range top (38.2% Tokyo sell-off fib zone) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.11 london low exposes the 158.00 round number
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 41 · price 158.217
LH/LL chain from 158.64; early London basing just above 158.19.
USDJPY bled from the 158.64 Asian high to a 158.11 session low just before London open. The move came as the yen firmed on intervention caution and the soft Japan PPI print, with every bounce capped at a lower high under a falling trendline. Early London is holding just above the 158.19 Asia low. Price is below both EMAs, and RSI(14) is in the low 40s rather than stretched.
Support: 158.19, 158.11
Resistance: 158.24, 158.35, 158.64
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.35 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the intraday LH sequence
Failure to hold the 158.19 Asia low and the 158.11 session low extends the lower-low chain
158.24 broken low is the first area to watch for rejection or reclaim
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, and later the ADP release at 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range 158.19–158.36 broken lower at London open; lower highs since the 158.64 rollover high.
Asia session sold off from 158.64 as the yen firmed on the soft Japan PPI and intervention caution, then settled into a 158.19–158.36 Asian range. London open pushed through the asian low to a 158.11 session low with RSI(14) near 37. Lower highs continue to cap under the downtrend line.
Support: 158.11, 158.00
Resistance: 158.19, 158.36, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.19 asian low returns price to the range and negates the range break
Failure to hold the 158.11 session low exposes the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.36 asian high breaks the downtrend line and the asian drop's 50% fib (~158.38), opening 158.50 round number
Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Any MoF intervention remarks from Bangkok could accelerate the yen leg
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 39 · price 158.212
Asian sell-off, then 158.19–158.36 range with lower highs; pressing range floor.
The Asia session sold off from the 158.53 sell-off top to the 158.19 swing low as Treasury yields slipped and intervention caution firmed the yen despite the soft Japan PPI. Two bounces stalled at the 158.36 range top, near the 50% retrace of the Asia sell-off, and price is now back at the range floor heading into the London open.
Support: 158.19, 158.00
Resistance: 158.36, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.19 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 158.00 round number in view
Recovery above the 158.36 range top (50% of the Asia sell-off) neutralises the drift; 158.53 sell-off top sits above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, in the first hour of London, could materially shift this read
Asia selloff to 158.19, then a tight 158.24–158.36 box ahead of London open.
The Asia session unwound Monday's NY push to 158.75, falling from 158.64 to a 158.19 session low as JPY firmed on intervention alertness despite the soft Japan PPI. Since then price has boxed between the 158.24 range low and the 158.36 range high, where the 38.2% fib capped twice. RSI(14) is neutral heading into London open.
Support: 158.235, 158.188
Resistance: 158.36, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.36 range high and 38.2% fib reopens the 158.50 breakdown pt
Failure to hold the 158.235 range low exposes the 158.19 session low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the consolidation either way
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 158.312
Tokyo sell-off from 158.64 to 158.19; 158.24–158.36 box since the low.
Asia session sold off from the 158.64 asia high to a 158.19 session low as the Yen firmed on the soft Japan PPI. Price has since held a 158.24 range floor and a 158.36 range top for about 3 hours into the London open. The range top sits on the 38.2% fib of the sell-off and has seen two rejections, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 158.24, 158.188
Resistance: 158.36, 158.415, 158.641
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.36 range top opens the 50% fib at 158.41, then the 158.64 asia high
Failure to hold the 158.24 range floor exposes the 158.19 session low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the Asian range either side
Asia sell-off from 158.64, shallow bounce capped at 38.2%, price back on the lows.
Asia sold USD/JPY from 158.64 to a 158.19 session low on USD profit-taking. The bounce stalled at the 158.36 bounce high, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia sell-off, and price is back pressing the 158.24 Asia floor into London open, with lower highs still intact.
Support: 158.24, 158.19, 158.00
Resistance: 158.36, 158.51
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.19 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
M15 close above the 158.36 bounce high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 158.51 range top back in view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone during early London
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing after Asia selloff · RSI 42 · price 158.296
Descending highs from 158.51 over a 158.19–158.36 base.
Asia session reversed Monday's London-NY climb to the 158.75 prior high. The selloff reached a 158.19 session low as the yen firmed after Ueda's remarks, despite the PPI miss. Since then price has held a 158.24 asia base while the 158.36 asia cap rejected twice, keeping descending highs intact into London open. RSI(14) sits at 42 and price is below EMA20.
Support: 158.24, 158.188
Resistance: 158.36, 158.47, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.36 asia cap breaks the descending highs and opens the fib 50% retracement of the selloff near 158.47
Failure to hold the 158.24 asia base exposes the 158.19 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, selling pressure fading into late Asia · RSI 47 · price 158.305
Post-selloff consolidation at 158.24–158.35, lower high capping, double low below.
After Monday's NY high at 158.751, the Asia session sold off to a 158.188 session low as risk-off flows firmed the yen despite the soft Japan PPI. Late in the Asia session price is drifting sideways between a 158.24 double low and the 158.351 lower high, edging above the selloff trendline and sitting just under the EMA20 (~158.33) at the 23.6% fib.
Support: 158.24, 158.188
Resistance: 158.351, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.351 lower high (near the 38.2% fib) opens the 158.50 round number
Failure to hold the 158.24 double low exposes the 158.188 session low and resumes the downtrend
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, early in the London session, could shift the read; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
Asia sell-off now compressing in a 158.24–158.35 range.
Asia session unwound Monday's London-NY grind to the 158.75 prior high, sliding from 158.64 to a 158.19 session low as the yen firmed despite the soft Japan PPI miss. Price is now compressing between the 158.24 range low and the 158.35 range high, below the 38.2% fib of the NY high-Asia low leg. EMA20 sits just above price and RSI(14) is near 43.
Support: 158.24, 158.19
Resistance: 158.35, 158.50, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 range high opens the 158.40–158.50 zone, where the 38.2%–50% fib meets the breakdown shelf
Failure to hold the 158.24 range low exposes the 158.19 session low and extends the lower-low chain
Waller at 07:45 UTC, shortly after London open, could break the Asian range
158.75 prior high caps the window and sits near the 158.51–158.70 range top cited in the digest
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 158.254
Lower highs from 158.64; bounce capped at 158.35, holding a 158.24 base.
The Asia session sold off from 158.64 to the 158.19 Asian low, breaking Monday's 158.28 low, as the yen firmed despite the soft Japan PPI. The bounce stalled at the 158.35 lower high, just under the 38.2% retrace of the Asia selloff and on the descending trendline. Price is now compressing above twin lows at 158.24, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 158.24, 158.188
Resistance: 158.351, 158.506
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.24 twin lows exposes the 158.19 Asian low and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 158.35 lower high and the descending trendline opens the 158.50 pullback high
Waller at 07:45 UTC and the London open could expand the range beyond the ~7-pip ATR
Lower highs from 158.64 Asia open; tight 158.19–158.35 base.
Asia session sold the pair from the 158.64 asia open to a 158.19 session low, taking out Monday's 158.28 early low. Risk-off and intervention vigilance outweighed the soft Japan PPI. The bounce saw rejection at 158.35, just under the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, and price is compressing above a 158.24 higher low under the falling trendline.
Support: 158.24, 158.19
Resistance: 158.35, 158.51, 158.64
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.35 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.24 higher low exposes the 158.19 session low
Only a reclaim of the 158.51 range top reopens the 158.64 asia open
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and any MoF FX rhetoric could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 158.75, small higher low at 158.24.
Asia session extended the slide from Monday's 158.75 NY high. The yen firmed on intervention vigilance despite soft Tokyo PPI, and the bounce off the 158.19 Asia low met rejection at 158.35, the bounce high just under the 38.2% fib, with the falling trendline intact. Price is basing just above the Asia low into late Tokyo hours, RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 158.188, 158.00
Resistance: 158.351, 158.506, 158.751
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.19 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.35 bounce high and the falling trendline invalidates the Asia downtrend read; the 158.51 lower high comes next
Waller at 07:45 UTC and the London open could reset the session range
Monday's 158.75 NY high marks the top of the window
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session.
The Asia session reversed Monday's climb to the 158.75 prior high with a ~45-pip slide to an asia low of 158.19. The yen firmed on intervention vigilance despite the soft Japan PPI print. The bounce was rejected at 158.35, just under the 38.2% fib, and the descending trendline of lower highs is intact with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 158.19, 158.00
Resistance: 158.35, 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.35 bounce high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.19 asia low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 158.00 round number
Recovery through 158.51 range top reopens the 158.75 prior high
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed is the larger event risk
Lower highs through Asia, early higher lows off 158.19.
Asia session took price out of Monday's 158.62–158.70 NY range and down to a 158.19 session low. The yen firmed on intervention alertness despite the Japan PPI miss, and lower highs at 158.48 and 158.38 mark the leg. The bounce has printed a higher low near 158.25 and is now pressing the swing high and falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.25, 158.19, 158.00
Resistance: 158.38, 158.48, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.38 swing high and falling trendline breaks the Asia lower-high chain; the 158.48 lower high, near the 50% of the decline fib, sits next
Failure to hold the 158.25 higher low reopens the 158.19 session low, with the 158.00 round number below
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, after London open, could shift this read; the 158.75 monday high is the window top
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for a break of this intraday structure
03:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 33 · price 158.269
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session, prior low swept.
The Asia sell-off has unwound Monday's late gains. A chain of lower highs off the 158.64 asia high dipped just through the 158.21 prior low to a 158.19 session low before a bounce, with USD easing in Asia outweighing the soft Japan PPI. RSI(14) sits near 33 and price is below both EMAs and under the falling trendline.
Support: 158.206, 158.188
Resistance: 158.295, 158.376, 158.641
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.38 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the intraday lower-high chain
158.30 bounce high is the first cap; holding back above the 158.21 prior low keeps the sweep read intact
Failure to hold the 158.19 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and the London open could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended into Asia low · RSI 31 · price 158.236
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.64 Asia high.
Tokyo session has unwound Monday's NY push to 158.75. Selling picked up after the soft Japan PPI print, carving lower highs off the 158.64 asia high along the asia trendline. The 02:45 UTC bar dipped below the monday low at 158.207 to a 158.188 asia low, then closed back above it. RSI(14) sits near 31, not yet stretched.
Support: 158.207, 158.188
Resistance: 158.376, 158.506, 158.641
What it said to watch
Close back above the 158.376 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 158.506 swing high in play
Acceptance below the 158.188 asia low confirms the monday low has given way and extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could shift this intraday read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Asia trendline from the 158.641 asia high caps rallies; a break above it ends the downtrend read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia selling extended · RSI 32 · price 158.265
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.64 Asia high; price back at Monday's start.
The Asia session has erased Monday's London-NY rally from the 158.75 monday high, with a chain of lower highs along a falling trendline. The slide tracks an easing dollar despite the soft Japan PPI. Price sits just above the 158.21 session low and 158.20 monday low, with RSI(14) near 32, close to oversold.
Support: 158.213, 158.195
Resistance: 158.376, 158.482, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.195 monday low extends the lower-low chain beyond Monday's range
Recovery above the 158.376 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the fib 50% at 158.48 caps above
A move back through the falling trendline and the fib 50% would put the 158.75 monday high back in range
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, after London open, could shift the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, Monday's range broken.
Tokyo's return has unwound most of Monday's grind to the 158.75 Monday high. A chain of lower highs below the Asia trendline has pushed price to a 158.22 session low despite the soft Japan PPI, with RSI(14) near 26 stretched but not extreme. The 158.20 Monday low sits just beneath, while the 158.38 lower high and the 50% fib at 158.48 cap any bounce.
Support: 158.216, 158.195
Resistance: 158.376, 158.484, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 Monday low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 158.38 lower high breaks the Asia trendline sequence, and the 50% fib at 158.48 is next
Reclaim of 158.48 puts the 158.75 Monday high back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, then Wednesday's US CPI, could materially shift this read
Tokyo reopen broke the late-NY 158.63–158.69 range; lower-high chain from 158.64.
Mid-Asia session, Tokyo's reopen has unwound the NY grind to the 158.75 prior high. The break below the 158.64 ny range set a chain of lower highs and lower lows into a 158.27 asia low, despite the soft Japan PPI print. RSI(14) near 30 is soft but not stretched, and the 158.48 lower high and descending trendline are capping bounces.
Support: 158.269, 158.168
Resistance: 158.477, 158.64, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.48 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the decline fib 50% sits at 158.51
Failure to hold the 158.27 asia low exposes Monday's 158.17 prior low
Recovery back into the 158.64 ny range would neutralise the Tokyo selloff
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
02:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Tokyo · RSI 31 · price 158.306
LH/LL chain from 158.64, testing London low.
Tokyo reopened with a steady slide from the 158.64 session high to 158.275, shrugging off the soft Japan PPI. Lower highs near 158.50 capped each bounce, and price is now pressing the 158.28 London low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 158.28, 158.15
Resistance: 158.50, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.28 London low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.15 24h low
Reclaim of 158.50 (lower highs, 61.8% of the Tokyo leg) breaks the sequence and reopens 158.64
Session high at 158.64 and prior high at 158.75 frame the upper side if the Tokyo leg fully retraces
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone into the London session; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
01:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 23:00 UTC · RSI 31 · price 158.338
Lower-high/lower-low chain, back inside Monday's Asian range.
Tokyo's reopening has unwound Monday's London-NY gains. USD/JPY slid from 158.64 to 158.34 in a lower-high/lower-low sequence and is back inside Monday's Asian range, even with soft Japan PPI. RSI(14) near 31 is not yet oversold, and the falling trendline capping each bounce runs through the 158.477 lower high, below the fib 50% at 158.545 and the 158.751 session high.
Support: 158.283, 158.111
Resistance: 158.477, 158.545, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.477 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.283 asia pivot extends the slide toward the 158.111 range low of Monday's Asian session
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands around London open and could reset the intraday read
US CPI on Wed is the larger swing risk; a print that reopens 158.751 brings the 158.70 range-top area back into view
01:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the 158.75 high · RSI 36 · price 158.43
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia open.
Tokyo's reopen brought a 30-pip slide from the 158.65 asian high to a 158.35 session low, a clean lower-high/lower-low chain despite soft Japan PPI. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 and is capped by the falling trendline and the 158.50 lower high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 158.75–158.35 drop.
Support: 158.35, 158.28
Resistance: 158.50, 158.65, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.50 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 158.65 asian high next above
Failure to hold the 158.35 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.28 prior swing
Only a recovery through the 158.75 prior high would restore yesterday's London-NY up-leg read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC (London morning) could materially shift this read; Wednesday's US CPI is the larger event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Tokyo open; below NY close range.
Selling from the Tokyo reopen broke the 158.56 range floor of the NY close drift and printed a session low at 158.352, against the yen-negative read of the soft Japan PPI. Lower highs at 158.64 and 158.506 form a descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 158.352, 158.283
Resistance: 158.506, 158.56, 158.751
What it said to watch
A break of the 158.352 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.28 swing low from Monday's pre-London trade
An M15 close above the 158.506 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the down-leg. That level is also the 38.2% retracement of the 158.75–158.35 selloff, with the 158.56 range floor next
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and Brent swings, which USD/JPY has been tracking intraday, could shift this read. The 158.75 Monday high is the session ceiling
01:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early bounce · RSI 40 · price 158.489
Lower highs off 158.64 into Tokyo; first higher close off 158.38.
Monday's London-NY grind topped at the 158.75 prior high. USDJPY then slid from the 158.64 Asia high to 158.38 as Tokyo reopened, with the yen firming despite the soft Japan PPI print. Price has rejected the 158.38 asia low and is bouncing into the 38.2% fib at 158.48, still below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 158.38, 158.29
Resistance: 158.54, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.54 fib 61.8 breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 158.64 asia high next
Failure to hold the 158.38 asia low confirms a lower-low and exposes Monday's ldn base near 158.29
158.75 prior high caps the range top; Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into Tokyo open · RSI 27 · price 158.426
Lower highs and lower lows off 158.75; overnight range broken lower.
Tokyo reopen broke the 158.56–158.64 overnight range and pushed to a 158.38 session low, despite soft Japan PPI. That extends the lower-high sequence off the 158.75 Monday high along the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 158.38, 158.28
Resistance: 158.56, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.56 rollover low, near the fib 50%, negates the range break
Failure to hold the 158.38 session low exposes the 158.28 swing low from early Monday
Close above the 158.64 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and Brent swings could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
00:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia selloff · RSI 24 · price 158.404
Lower highs below 158.64, testing London low.
Tokyo's return from Monday's holiday has dropped USDJPY about 25 pips from the 158.64 range base, through the 158.56 late-NY low and into the 158.39 London low. That erases the London breakout and leaves price near the 50% fib of Monday's 158.08–158.75 day low to day high advance. RSI(14) sits near 24 under a falling trendline of lower highs.
Support: 158.39, 158.28, 158.08
Resistance: 158.56, 158.64, 158.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.39 London low exposes the 158.28 Asian low, with the 158.08 day low the next shelf
Recovery above the 158.56 late-NY low and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence; 158.64 range base and 158.75 day high sit above
RSI(14) pushing below 20 marks the selloff as stretched on this timeframe
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and any Japan FX warnings from the IMF meetings could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs below 158.75; post-rollover floor at 158.56 broken.
After London broke the 158.08–158.39 Asian range, USD/JPY ran to a 158.75 prior high in NY. It has since printed a chain of lower highs and slipped below the 158.56 post-rollover floor as Tokyo reopens. Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace of that rally, with the 158.45 session low already tested once and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 158.449, 158.395
Resistance: 158.56, 158.639, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.56 broken floor negates the range-break read
Clearing the 158.64 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline from 158.69
Failure to hold the 158.45 session low exposes the 158.40 swing low near the 50% retrace
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and Tokyo's return to full liquidity could reshape the session range
00:02 UTC
Pullback within Monday's rally, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 31 · price 158.516
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 158.751; Asia slipped below the 158.56 NY floor.
Monday's rally ran from the 158.075 Asian low to the 158.751 monday high during NY on firm USD and oil-driven yen weakness. Price has since printed lower highs, and early Asia slipped through the 158.56 ny floor to a 158.495 session low at the 38.2% retracement of the monday rally. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not stretched.
Support: 158.495, 158.40
Resistance: 158.56, 158.64, 158.751
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.56 ny floor negates the Asia breakdown
Failure to hold the 158.495 session low opens the 158.40 swing low, near the 50% fib
A break of the lower highs trendline through the 158.64 lower high reopens the 158.751 monday high
Tokyo reopening and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read