Lower highs from 158.75 week high; coiling 158.26–158.46 under a descending line.
USD/JPY ground up from the 158.26 weekly open to a 158.75 week high during NY hours Monday, then unwound through Asia and London Tuesday. The Bloomberg report of a BoJ lean against an October hike briefly drove a spike to the 157.83 tuesday low, which recovered above 158.00 within the hour. Tuesday's NY recovery met rejection at the 158.46 ny high, near the 61.8% drop retracement and under the descending line from the week high, leaving price coiling on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 158.32 with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) contracting to ~12 pips.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.50, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.46 ny high and the descending line opens the 158.50 round number and the 158.75 week high
Failure to hold the 158.26 weekly open exposes the 157.83 tuesday low and the rising support from the 157.52 thursday low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could break the 157.83–158.75 range and materially shift this read
BoJ Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC; any push-back on a December hike would alter the yen side of the range
Monday's grind to the 158.75 week high into the NY session met rejection on Tuesday. Ueda and Takaichi's comments on close US-Japan FX contact pulled price to the 157.83 Tuesday low at the London open, still a higher low than the 157.52 Thursday low. The NY rebound stalled at the 158.46 Tuesday high, leaving lower highs against higher lows. Price sits at the 50% retrace of the Mon–Tue decline, pinned to EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 50, a compressing range ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.10, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read; core 0.2% m/m is the pivot
H1 close above the 158.46 Tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.75 week high back in play
Loss of the 158.10 rebound base re-exposes the 157.83 Tuesday low
H1 close below 157.83 breaks the higher-lows sequence and opens the 157.52 Thursday low
Official FX remarks or rate-check headlines toward the 158.75 week high would cap the upside read
Contracting range: lower highs off 158.75, rising lows off 157.52.
Monday's thin Tokyo-holiday grind set the week high at 158.75. Tuesday's Asia session reversed lower after Ueda and Takaichi stressed close US-Japan FX contact, and the London-open flush to the 157.83 tue low, beyond the 61.8% of the Thu–Mon leg, was bought back into NY. Highs are stepping lower from the 158.75 week high to the 158.65 tue high and the 158.46 NY high, while lows hold above Thursday's 157.52. That squeezes price onto a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 158.31, just above the 158.26 week open, with RSI(14) parked around 51 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.65, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a soft core puts the 157.83 tue low in play
H1 close below 157.83 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 157.52 thu low
H1 close above the 158.46 NY high breaks the lower-highs line; above the 158.75 week high invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 158.26 week open keeps price capped below the flat EMAs
BoJ's Koeda Oct 15 01:30 UTC and any intervention headlines near the week high
Lower high at 158.46 inside a 157.52–158.75 range; EMAs flat and converged.
USD/JPY ground up from the 158.26 weekly open to a 158.75 week high into Monday's NY session on yield differentials, then saw rejection there as Tuesday's Asia session turned lower on firmer yen tone after Ueda's remarks. A London-hours drop to the 157.83 Tuesday low broke below last week's 158.05 shelf but reclaimed it within two bars, a false break. The NY rebound stalled at 158.46, a lower high near the 61.8% retracement, leaving price on flat, converged EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 158.32 with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.46 lower high reopens the 158.75 week high; failure there keeps the lower-highs line intact
Loss of the 158.26 weekly open exposes the 157.83 Tuesday low and the rising lows line from last Thursday
Close below 157.83 opens the path to the 157.52 prior wk low, last Thursday's NY session low
Contracting range: lower high under week high, higher low above Thursday low.
Monday's grind from the weekly open to the 158.75 week high met rejection. Tuesday's Asia session reversed it, and the slide extended to the 157.83 Tuesday low in the London morning as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike bets and Ueda's remarks. The NY session recovered most of the drop but stalled at a 158.46 lower high, near the 61.8–70% retracement. Price is now flat around EMA(20) at 158.31 and EMA(50), just above the weekly open, with RSI(14) at 50. Higher lows from the 157.52 Thursday low and lower highs from the week high are compressing the range ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.31, 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a break of the compressing range
H1 close above the 158.46 lower high reopens the 158.75 week high
Failure to hold the 158.26 weekly open puts the 157.83 Tuesday low back in focus
A break of the 157.83 Tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.52 Thursday low
Lower high under 158.75 week high, higher low above last week's 157.52.
USDJPY opened the week at 158.26 and ran to a 158.75 week high through Monday's London and NY sessions. Rejection there gave way to Tuesday's London-open slide to a 157.83 week low as the yen firmed on BoJ-hike and intervention chatter. The NY-session rebound has reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20) near 158.32, but stalled at the 158.46 Tuesday high just above the 61.8% fib of that decline, leaving a lower high under the week high with RSI(14) flat near 52 and higher lows from last Thursday's 157.52 still intact.
Support: 158.32, 158.26, 157.83
Resistance: 158.40, 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.46 Tuesday high and 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.75 week high
Failure to hold the weekly open at 158.26 and EMA(20) puts the 157.83 week low and the higher-lows line back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman remarks and the Beige Book also land Wednesday
Japanese verbal-intervention headlines near the range top could reinforce supply capping rallies
157.52–158.75 range; Tuesday's London-open dip retraced back above the EMA cluster.
USD/JPY has held a 157.52–158.75 range across the window, with higher lows from Thursday's range low into Tuesday's 157.83 London-open spike low. Monday's push to the 158.75 week high stalled near the 200-day SMA, and Ueda's comments firmed the yen in Asia. NY hours then lifted price to a 158.46 session high, about a 61.8% retracement of the Mon–Tue drop, back above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 158.32. RSI(14) at 56 is neutral as the market sits tight ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 158.32, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: core at 0.3% m/m or higher could push price through the 158.75 week high toward 159.05; core at 0.1% or lower puts the 157.83 tuesday low in play
An H1 close above 158.75 breaks the range top. Repeated failure at the 158.46 session high keeps the range intact
A close back below the ema20 near 158.32 would undo Tuesday's recovery
A break below 157.83 tuesday low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.52 range low
Japanese intervention rhetoric near 159 and Fed's Bowman (Wed 09:40/14:55 UTC) could shift this read
Range 157.83–158.75, lower high Tue, false break below Monday low.
USDJPY opened the week at 158.26 and ground higher through Monday into the NY session, topping at the 158.75 week high before a rejection unwound the gains through Tuesday's Asia session as the yen firmed on Ueda's comments. An early-London flush to the 157.83 week low proved a false break below Monday's low, and NY hours recovered to a 158.46 session high, stalling just above the 61.8% retrace of the 158.75–157.83 drop. Price is hugging flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 158.31 with RSI(14) near 52, a compressed range between the lower-high line and the higher-low line ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.46 session high and the 61.8% retrace reopens the 158.75 week high; a break of the lower-high line from 158.75 would end the compression
Loss of the 158.26 weekly open puts the 157.83 week low back in focus; below there, Thursday's 157.52 prior low and the higher-low line come into play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a core beat or miss is the likely range-break catalyst
Monthly Budget Statement today 18:00 UTC and Fed Bowman Wed 09:40 UTC are secondary event risks before CPI
15:02 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building · RSI 55 · price 158.426
Higher lows from 157.52 inside a 157.50–158.75 range.
The week opened at 158.26, and Monday's London-NY advance from the 158.08 monday low printed the 158.75 week high before Asia and London unwound it. Tuesday's London open spike to the 157.83 london low retraced roughly 75% of the Thursday-Monday rally but met rejection above Friday's 157.76 low, extending the higher-low sequence from Thursday's 157.52. NY session has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 158.30 with RSI(14) back to ~55, pressing the 158.44 prior high as the yen's BoJ-rhetoric firmness fades into Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 158.30, 158.08, 157.83
Resistance: 158.44, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.44 prior high reopens the 158.75 week high
Loss of ema20 at 158.30 puts the 158.08 monday low back in play
Failure to hold the 157.83 london low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the rising-low sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC is an earlier risk
USDJPY is still contained in this week's 157.52–158.75 range. Monday's grind from the weekly open met rejection at the 158.75 week high in NY hours, and Tuesday's Asia slide on BoJ-hike and intervention chatter extended into a London-open sweep to the 157.83 swing low. That low was fully reclaimed into the London-NY transition, putting price back above the ema20 near 158.30 and pressing the 158.43 prior high, with RSI(14) back around 51 and the higher lows line from Thursday's low still intact.
Support: 158.30, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.43, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.43 prior high shifts focus back to the 158.75 week high; acceptance above it breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 157.83 swing low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 157.52 week low
The 157.83 sweep reached roughly 74% of the Thursday–Monday impulse fib; a deeper print would erase that leg
Loss of the ema20 near 158.30 would return price to the middle of the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
13:02 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from the week high · RSI 41 · price 158.199
Lower highs from 158.75, sweep under the Monday low reclaimed.
Monday's steady grind from the 158.08 Monday low capped out at the 158.75 week high and stalled there. Tuesday's Asia session and London open unwound most of that gain as the yen firmed on Ueda's BoJ rhetoric, with a sharp sweep to the 157.83 Tuesday low that was quickly reclaimed. Price now sits just under the 158.26 weekly open and EMA(20), near the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday drop fib, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s toward 41.
Support: 157.829, 157.515
Resistance: 158.263, 158.428, 158.751
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could break the 157.83–158.75 range either way
H1 close back above the 158.26 weekly open and EMA(20) eases the pullback read; the 158.43 Friday high and the lower-high line come next
Failure to hold 157.83 after the sweep confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.52 Thursday low
Repeated capping below the 50–61.8% zone (158.29–158.40) of the Tuesday drop fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact
157.52–158.75 range; false break of range top unwound.
Monday's London-NY push to a 158.75 week high cleared Friday's 158.43 top but did not hold. The pair faced rejection near the 200-day SMA zone and slid back through the weekly open at 158.26 during Tuesday's Asian session. A London-morning spike to the 157.83 Tuesday low overshot the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday advance before recovering to around the 50% level. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 39, as softer US yields and oil trim USD ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.26, 158.50, 158.75
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the weekly open at 158.26 would reclaim EMA(20) and neutralise the pullback read
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 157.83 exposes the 157.52 swing low at the range floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: core m/m against the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read, with the 200-day SMA near 158.50 and the 158.75 week high as the upside reference
MoF verbal intervention headlines near the 158.50–158.75 area would change the read on any retest
11:03 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from the week high · RSI 36 · price 158.103
Lower highs since Monday's 158.75 peak, back inside last week's 157.52–158.43 range.
USDJPY gave back Monday's Tokyo-holiday rally to the 158.75 week high. It slipped through the weekly open during Tuesday's Asia session on renewed intervention chatter, then hit a 157.83 London low before recovering above 158.00, with the soft Japan PPI tempering yen gains. Price sits below EMA(20) near 158.28 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, and Monday's push above the Friday high at 158.43 has unwound as a false break back into last week's range.
Support: 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.26, 158.43, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 158.26 and the lower highs trendline would neutralise Tuesday's sell-off
Failure to hold the london low at 157.83 exposes the 157.52 swing low, last week's range floor
Friday high at 158.43 sits at the 61.8% fib of the mon-tue drop; reclaiming it reopens the week high at 158.75
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC and any MoF intervention rhetoric near the week high could materially shift this read
Failed push above Friday high, lower highs since Monday.
Monday's London-NY push cleared Friday's 158.43 high and printed a 158.75 monday high, but the break failed. USD/JPY reversed through Tuesday's Asia session on renewed intervention chatter and softer US yields, then dropped to a 157.83 tue low at the London open. Price now sits back below the weekly open at 158.26, both EMAs and the monday low at 158.08, retracing more than 50% of the Thu–Mon rally from 157.52, with RSI(14) near 34 and the 157.52–158.75 range intact.
Support: 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.08, 158.26, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 158.26 and EMA(20) would neutralise Tuesday's pullback and restore the mid-range read
Failure to hold the 157.83 tue low exposes Thursday's 157.52 range low near the 61.8%–full retracement of the Thu–Mon rally
Repeated failure to reclaim the monday low at 158.08 confirms it has flipped to resistance
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 158.75 monday high back in play
Escalation in Japanese MoF intervention rhetoric would reinforce supply capping rallies
09:02 UTC
Down from Monday high, broader range intact · RSI 31 · price 157.962
Monday's push through last week's prior high at 158.43 stalled at the 158.75 Monday high. Tuesday has unwound the whole move: the Asia session printed lower highs, then the London open dropped about 55 pips to a 157.83 London low. Easing yields and oil, plus Ueda's inflation-anchoring remarks, firmed the yen. Price now sits below the weekly open at 158.26 and under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 30, but the four-day range down to the 157.52 prior low remains intact.
Support: 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.26, 158.43, 158.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.83 London low exposes the 157.52 prior low and the range floor
An H1 close back above the 158.26 weekly open breaks the Tuesday lower-highs sequence
US September CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would put the 158.43 prior high and 158.75 Monday high back in play
Japan MoF intervention rhetoric caps reactions near the 158.43–158.75 zone
08:02 UTC
Range, rolling over after failed upside break · RSI 32 · price 158.212
False break above prior high, lower highs since Monday's peak.
Monday's push through last week's prior high at 158.43 ran to a 158.75 week high in NY hours but did not hold. The Asia session today unwound most of the move, leaving price below the ema20 near 158.38, RSI(14) in the low 30s and a sequence of lower highs into the Monday low at 158.08. The rejection matches the digest's 200-day SMA cap and intervention vigilance, with the yen firming despite the soft Japan PPI miss.
Support: 158.08, 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.38, 158.43, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the prior high at 158.43 would neutralise the false-break read; a return through the 158.75 week high reopens the upside
Failure to hold the Monday low at 158.08 exposes the 157.76 swing low and the 157.52 week low at the range floor
H1 close above the Tuesday lower-highs line and the ema20 would break the intraday sequence
US September CPI on Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% f/c is the swing factor
07:02 UTC
Range-bound, short-term down from week high · RSI 30 · price 158.163
Monday's leg almost fully retraced; lower highs since Asia open.
Monday's leg ran from the 158.08 Monday low in Asia to a 158.75 week high into the NY session, with oil-driven USD demand behind it. Supply then capped price, and Tuesday's Asia session unwound nearly the whole move amid yen intervention caution and a soft Japan PPI print. Price now trades back below the weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 30 and a run of lower highs pressing on the Monday low.
Support: 158.08, 157.76, 157.52
Resistance: 158.26, 158.43, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.08 Monday low exposes the 157.76 Friday low, then the 157.52 prior wk low (last week's low)
Recovery above the 158.26 weekly open and the lower highs line would mark the Tuesday slide as a range retest; 158.43 last wk high sits above
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a soft core print would likely test the lower range; a hot print would bring the 158.75 week high back into focus
Lower highs from 158.75 back inside last week's range, price at weekly open.
Monday's NY-session push to the 158.75 week high, driven by hawkish Fed talk and Brent above $107, cleared Friday's 158.43 high but did not hold. Today's Asia session unwound the move back to the 158.26 weekly open, with intervention caution outweighing a soft Japan PPI print. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 158.42 and through the fib 61.8 of Monday's rally at 158.33, with the asia low at 158.19 and the monday low at 158.08 as the nearest floors, while RSI(14) has slipped to the mid-30s after holding above 60 through Monday.
Support: 158.19, 158.08, 157.52
Resistance: 158.33, 158.42, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 / Friday high near 158.42 would negate the false break read
Failure to hold the monday low at 158.08 exposes the prior wk low at 157.52
Reclaim of the 158.75 week high would put the 158.70 range-top area and the 160 intervention zone back in focus
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and ADP at 12:15 UTC today, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's 157.52 swing low, but the Monday break above 158.43 failed below 158.75.
Monday's leg from the 158.08 week low ran through London and NY to a 158.75 week high, briefly clearing Friday's 158.43 peak as USD/JPY tracked oil and hawkish Fedspeak, with Tokyo shut. Asia on Tuesday reversed about 80% of that move to a 158.19 Asia low, beyond the 61.8% retracement, and price is now back near the weekly open, below EMA(20) at 158.44 and EMA(50) near 158.39, with RSI(14) at 38. The Thursday–Monday higher lows line is being tested at current price, while supply near the 158.51–158.70 range top flagged in the yen digest capped the advance.
Support: 158.19, 158.08, 157.52
Resistance: 158.44, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 158.44 revives the higher lows read and puts the 158.75 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 158.19 Asia low and the 158.08 week low breaks Monday's base and exposes Thursday's 157.52 swing low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; the core print could materially shift this read
Approach toward 160 carries intervention headline risk, which would distort range behaviour
04:03 UTC
Range-bound, pullback from week high · RSI 36 · price 158.266
Higher lows since Thursday; false break above range top.
Monday's rally from the 158.08 week low ran to the 158.75 week high in thin holiday trade, as Brent above $107 and Japan fiscal worries weighed on the yen. It cleared the 158.51 range top only briefly before fading. Tuesday's Asia session unwound most of the move as intervention vigilance outweighed soft Japan PPI. Price is now below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 36. The 158.19 Asia low held at the rising trendline from Friday's 157.76 low, near the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Monday advance (158.28), so the higher-low sequence from Thursday's 157.52 swing low is still intact.
Support: 158.19, 158.08, 157.52
Resistance: 158.46, 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.19 asia low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.08 week low
Failure to hold 158.08 shifts focus to the 50%/61.8% fib zone (158.13/157.99) and then the 157.52 swing low
Recovery above the ema20 at 158.46 and the 158.51 range top would put the false break in question, with the 158.75 week high back in view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; MoF rhetoric caps upside toward 160
Higher lows from Thursday's 157.52 intact, Monday break of 158.43 faded.
Monday's oil-led yen slide carried price from the 158.08 monday low through Friday's 158.43 highs to a 158.75 monday high in the NY session. That move has unwound through Tuesday's Asia session despite Japan's soft PPI, with price back under the 158.26 weekly open and the ema20 near 158.47, and RSI(14) down to ~31. Price is testing the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday week low to Monday high leg, with the 158.19 asia low the first reference below.
Support: 158.19, 158.08, 157.52
Resistance: 158.26, 158.47, 158.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.08 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence from Thursday and exposes the 157.52 week low
H1 close back above the ema20 and 158.43 would neutralise the false break read and reopen the 158.75 monday high
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today could shift this read ahead of the main event
US September CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's directional catalyst for the 157.52–158.75 range
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, sharp Asia pullback · RSI 34 · price 158.294
Higher lows since Thursday, testing trendline.
USD/JPY has carved higher lows since Thursday's NY-session swing low at 157.52. Monday's thin Tokyo-holiday trade saw London and NY lift price from the 158.08 Monday low to a 158.75 week high as Brent and the dollar firmed. The Tokyo reopen has unwound much of that despite soft Japan PPI, dropping price below the ema20 and the 158.43 Friday high onto the 38.2% fib near 158.28, where the higher-lows trendline also sits, with RSI(14) near 34 reflecting the speed of the slide.
Support: 158.28, 158.08, 157.52
Resistance: 158.43, 158.53, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.08 monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 50% retracement near 158.13 and below
Holding the fib 38.2 / trendline confluence near 158.28 keeps the uptrend read intact; a reclaim of the ema20 near 158.53 would be needed to revisit the week high
Failure to get back above the 158.43 friday high leaves Monday's push through the prior range top as a false break
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Thursday's 157.52 swing low is the base of the week's impulse; trade back there negates the higher-lows structure
Range break above 158.47 now being retested, higher lows intact.
Monday cleared last week's 157.52–158.47 range. The move built through the London session in thin Tokyo-holiday trade and peaked at the 158.75 week high in NY hours, tracking Brent's push and broad USD strength. Tokyo's return has brought a pullback to a 158.38 day low, back toward the old range top. Price now sits below EMA(20) and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s, despite the soft Japan PPI. The higher-low trendline from last Thursday's 157.52 prior low remains untested.
Support: 158.38, 158.26, 157.52
Resistance: 158.58, 158.75
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 158.38 day low and the 158.26 weekly open puts price back inside last week's range and fails the retest
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 158.58 and a close above the 158.75 week high resumes the breakout leg; 160 intervention rhetoric caps the wider path
A break of the higher-low trendline (near 158.24) would end the sequence of higher lows since Thursday
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
The 38.2% fib of the week low–high move sits at 158.28, alongside the weekly open
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Monday high · RSI 46 · price 158.505
Higher lows since Thursday; breakout above prior high now being retested.
USD/JPY has built higher lows since Thursday's NY-session low at 157.52. In thin holiday trade on Monday (Tokyo and US bond markets shut), London and NY hours pushed through last week's prior high near 158.43 to a week high at 158.75, as Brent above $107 and a firmer dollar weighed on the yen. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) into early Asia, near 158.60, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s, leaving the pullback on the 23.6% level of the Thursday–Monday fib, just above the prior high and with the weekly open at 158.26 further below.
Support: 158.43, 158.26, 158.075
Resistance: 158.60, 158.751, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.43 prior high would turn Monday's move into a false break and put the 158.26 weekly open in play
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 158.075 Monday low would end the higher-low sequence from Thursday
Reclaiming EMA(20) and an H1 close above the 158.75 week high opens the path to the 159.00 round number
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed Oct 14, 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
FX warnings from Japan's finance minister at the IMF meetings would add intervention risk to any extension higher