Weekly range 157.83–158.95; CPI spike fully unwound, lower highs since the peak.
Hot US CPI lifted USDJPY to a 158.95 week high in the first hours of NY, a false break above Monday's 158.75 high that stopped just shy of the 159.00 September peak. Price then gave back the whole move into the NY close, retracing roughly 75% of the Tue-Wed rally. It now sits below the weekly open at 158.26 and the EMA cluster near 158.38, with RSI(14) at 41, and Asia session trade has already retested the post-cpi low at 158.04.
Support: 158.04, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.38, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the post-cpi low at 158.04 exposes Tuesday's London-session week low at 157.83
Recovery above the weekly open and the 158.38 ema cluster would break the post-CPI lower highs and restore the mid-range read
BoJ Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC; a hawkish tone would pressure the 158.04 post-cpi low
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI and Retail Sales cluster could materially shift this read; the 158.95 week high is the cap below the 159.00 September peak
157.83–158.95 week range; CPI break above Monday high failed.
The hot US core CPI print drove a NY-session spike from 158.44 to the 158.95 CPI high, clearing the Monday high at 158.75 but stalling short of 159.00. Price then reversed fully after London close to the 158.05 post-CPI low. At 158.32, the pair is back below EMA(20) near 158.44 and just above the week open at 158.26, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the leg from Tuesday's London-open week low to the CPI high. RSI(14) has rolled back to ~46, leaving price mid-range within the 157.83–158.95 week span.
Support: 158.26, 158.05, 157.83
Resistance: 158.44, 158.75, 158.95
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 near 158.44 would bring the 158.95 CPI high back into focus.
Failure to hold the 158.05 post-CPI low exposes the 157.83 week low.
Loss of the week open at 158.26 (61.8% of the week low-to-CPI high leg) deepens the CPI-spike retracement.
BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales cluster could materially shift this read.
A renewed approach to 158.95–159.00 meets the level where the CPI spike was rejected, in an area flagged for intervention-risk sensitivity.
157.83–158.95 week range; false break above Monday high unwound.
The week opened at 158.26 and Monday ground up to the 158.75 Monday high. Tuesday's London-open drop to the 157.83 week low followed the BoJ report, and the 158.50 pre-CPI cap then held on Tuesday and again early Wednesday. The hot US CPI print lifted the pair through Monday's high to a 158.95 CPI high just shy of the 159.00 September peak. That move fully unwound during NY hours with a 50-pip bar to the 158.05 CPI-day low, leaving a false break and price back under EMA(20) near 158.48 with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 158.05, 157.83
Resistance: 158.50, 158.75, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.50 pre-CPI cap and EMA(20) would reopen the 158.75 Monday high and the 158.95 CPI high
Failure to hold the 158.05 CPI-day low exposes the 157.83 week low; the 61.8% retracement of the Tue low–CPI high fib sits at 158.26 just under price
BoJ's Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session, and intervention risk near 159.00 can trigger outsized yen moves
US PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
157.83–158.95 week range; CPI break above Monday high failed.
From the 158.26 weekly open the pair ground up to a 158.75 Monday high in NY hours, then Tuesday's BoJ-report whipsaw printed the 157.83 week low before buyers stepped back in. The hot US CPI print drove a spike to the 158.95 CPI high just under the 159.00 September peak, but the NY afternoon gave it all back with a slide to the 158.05 NY low that undercut the higher-low line, a false break of the Monday high. Price now sits near 158.33, below the EMA20 at ~158.47, with RSI(14) back to ~51 and holding just above the 32% retrace of the post-CPI fade.
Support: 158.26, 158.05, 157.83
Resistance: 158.47, 158.75, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 158.75 Monday high revives the CPI breakout; 158.95 CPI high is the cap under 159.00
Failure to hold the 158.05 NY low exposes the 157.83 week low and the range floor
EMA20 near 158.47, sitting just under the 50% retrace of the post-CPI fade, is the first test for any rebound
Repeated failure to hold the 158.26 weekly open keeps the late-NY fade in control
BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC (Asia session) and Thursday's 12:30 GMT US PPI/Retail Sales cluster could shift this read
Weekly range 157.83–158.95; post-CPI false break above Monday high.
From the 158.26 weekly open the pair ground to a 158.75 Monday high during NY hours. Tuesday's BoJ report then knocked it to the 157.83 week low in the London session. The hot US CPI print lifted it through Monday's high to a 158.95 week high, but the advance stalled shy of 159.00. The 18:00 GMT bar, around the Beige Book release, unwound the whole leg to the 158.05 cpi low, which breaks the higher-low line from Tuesday. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 158.48, with RSI(14) rolled over into the low 40s and ATR expanded to about 18 pips.
Support: 158.05, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.48, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 158.48 ema20 would weaken the false-break read
Failure to hold the 158.05 cpi low, which aligns with the 78.6% fib of the Tuesday low–CPI high leg at 158.07, exposes the 157.83 week low
Reclaiming the 158.26 weekly open would put price back inside the pre-CPI range
A renewed approach to the 158.95 week high puts 159.00 back in focus, where intervention risk is flagged
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 GMT in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
From the 158.26 weekly open, USDJPY spent Monday to Wednesday in a 157.83–158.75 band. The low came at Tuesday's London open on the BoJ-report whipsaw, and a higher low followed at 158.11 in Wednesday's Asia session. The hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a 39-pip NY-session bar through the Monday high, and the week high at 158.95 has since capped three tests. The 158.66 post-CPI low has held, with price above a rising EMA(20) near 158.56 and RSI(14) easing from ~70 to the mid-60s.
Support: 158.75, 158.66, 158.26
Resistance: 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.75 Monday high and the 158.66 post-CPI low would turn the CPI breakout into a false break inside the prior range
A sustained push above the 158.95 week high exposes the 159.05 range top, where Japanese MoF intervention rhetoric could add two-way risk
BoJ's Koeda (01:30 UTC) and Thursday's US Retail Sales/PPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
A loss of the higher-low trendline and the 61.8% retracement near the 158.26 weekly open would break the week's rising structure
Higher lows since Tuesday's London low; Mon–Wed range broken to upside on CPI.
After Tuesday's London-session flush to 157.83 on the BoJ report, the pair set a higher low at 158.11 in Wednesday's Asian range. The hot US core CPI in the first hour of NY then cleared the 158.48–158.51 pre-CPI cap that had held the pair since Monday. Two tests of the 158.946 week high have been capped, and the post-release pullback low at 158.657 is holding with RSI(14) easing from the mid-70s to around 66 while price sits well above EMA(20).
Support: 158.657, 158.51, 158.112
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 158.51 pre-CPI cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 158.946 week high exposes the 159 handle and the 159.05 range top cited by UOB
Loss of the 158.657 pullback low opens a deeper retest toward the 50% retracement near 158.39
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT today and BoJ Koeda in tomorrow's Asia session could materially shift this read
Thursday's US Retail Sales/PPI at 12:30 GMT; intervention rhetoric near the 159 handle is a two-way risk
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout after hot US CPI · RSI 67 · price 158.828
Higher lows since Tuesday's low; pre-CPI range broken.
After Tuesday's London-open flush to the 157.83 weekly low, USD/JPY built higher lows and spent Wednesday's sessions boxed between 158.11 and the 158.51 pre-CPI top. The hotter US core CPI print at the NY open drove a 40-pip H1 bar through that ceiling and above Monday's 158.75 high. Price has since stalled just under the 158.95 week high, with RSI(14) near 67 and price holding well above EMA(20). The 158.51 pre-CPI top lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday-low-to-week-high leg.
Support: 158.51, 158.26, 157.83
Resistance: 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.51 pre-cpi top would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 158.95 week high puts the 159.05 range top in play, where intervention rhetoric has been flagged
Loss of the weekly open at 158.26 breaks the rising support from Tuesday's low
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled test of the post-CPI move
Breakout from a two-day 158.14–158.51 range; higher lows since Tuesday's 157.83 low.
From the 158.26 weekly open, Monday's push to 158.75 reversed in Tuesday's Asia session to a 157.83 week low on the BoJ report whipsaw. Price then held a 158.14–158.51 range through Wednesday's London session. The hot US core CPI beat in the NY session cleared both the range top and the Monday high. That move printed a 158.95 week high just shy of the 159.00 round number, and price now holds above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 67, short of overbought. The last two bars are holding the Monday high as a shelf, with the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse sitting at the old range top.
Support: 158.75, 158.51, 157.83
Resistance: 158.95, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.75 Monday high would put the breakout into retest mode toward the 158.51 range top / 38.2% fib
Failure to hold 158.51 returns price inside the prior range and weakens the higher-low trendline read
A clean H1 close above the 158.95 week high and the 159.00 round number extends the impulse into a zone the digest flags for Japanese FX-rhetoric risk
BoJ's Koeda (Oct 15, 01:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales could extend or unwind the CPI move
A break of the 157.83 week low would negate the week's higher-low structure
Range break above 158.75 Monday high; higher lows since Tuesday's weekly low.
From Monday into Wednesday's Asia session, USD/JPY held a 157.83–158.75 band, capped at the Monday high, with demand at Tuesday's weekly low and again at a 158.11 higher low. The hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove the range break. The 12:00 bar added ~39 pips through the 158.51 range top and the Monday high, and the next bar printed a week high of 158.95, just under the 159.00 round number. RSI(14) sits near 69 after the two-bar impulse, with price well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 158.75, 158.51, 157.83
Resistance: 159.00, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.75 Monday high would mark the CPI breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 159.00 round number and 159.05 sept peak extends the move into territory where MoF/BoJ intervention risk is flagged
The 38.2% retracement of the weekly low to week high move sits at ~158.52, aligning with the range top; loss of it and the higher lows trendline puts the 157.83 weekly low back in view
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT, the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT and BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.75 against higher lows from 157.83; contracting.
USD/JPY climbed from the 158.26 week open to a 158.75 week high through Monday's London session. It then gave the gains back from Asia into Tuesday's London open, bottoming at the 157.83 tue low before US yields lifted it in NY. Since then the pair has printed lower highs (wed high 158.51, then 158.49 into London today) against higher lows (wed low 158.11, near the 50% retrace of the Thursday-to-Monday impulse fib), compressing just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 55. The dollar is softer on easing yields and Williams' dovish remarks heading into today's CPI.
Support: 158.26, 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT falls inside the current bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.51 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.75 week high
Failure to hold the 158.11 wed low breaks the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 157.83 tue low
Loss of the 158.26 week open puts price back below EMA(20) and the 38.2% level of the impulse fib
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend any CPI-driven move
Lower high at 158.51 vs Monday's 158.75, higher low at 158.11 vs Tuesday's 157.83.
Monday's run from the 158.26 weekly open to the 158.75 week high reversed into a London-open drop to 157.83 on Tuesday, a whipsaw tied to softer USD yields and BoJ headlines. Since then price has recovered above the 61.8% retracement of that drop (~158.40) and holds marginally above a flat EMA(20) near 158.36. Price is compressing between a lower high at 158.51 in today's Asia session and a higher low at 158.11, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR near 12 pips.
Support: 158.36, 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read. Core MoM vs 0.2% is the swing factor.
H1 close above the 158.51 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 158.75 week high.
Loss of the 158.11 higher low and the rising support line reopens the 157.83 Tuesday low.
Price slipping back under the ema20 and the 61.8% retracement would show the recovery stalling.
Bowman (14:55 GMT) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) may extend post-CPI volatility.
Lower highs below 158.75 inside a 157.83–158.75 band, price back under weekly open.
USDJPY set the 158.75 week high in Monday's NY session and has printed lower highs since. Tuesday's London whipsaw to 157.83 on the BoJ report was recovered to 158.46 into NY as US yields rose. Wednesday's Asia high at 158.51 was rejected near the 158.50 cap flagged in the yen digest, and price has slid back through the 158.26 weekly open. It now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 37 and the Monday low at 158.08 as the nearest floor.
Support: 157.829, 157.515
Resistance: 158.263, 158.513, 158.751
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the weekly open at 158.26 and EMA(20) reopens the 158.51 asia high
Failure to hold the monday low at 158.08 exposes the tuesday low at 157.83, then the thursday low at 157.52
Close above the lower highs trendline from the 158.75 week high invalidates the fade; the fib 61.8% of week high to tuesday low sits at 158.40
158.75–157.83 weekly range, lower highs forming under Monday's high.
Monday's steady grind from the 158.26 weekly open to a 158.75 week high was fully unwound in Tuesday's London session, when the pair dropped to the 157.83 Tuesday low as the USD retreated broadly. Rising US yields then lifted it to 158.46 into NY. Today's Asia high at 158.51 was another lower high and met rejection, returning price to the weekly open and the 50% retracement of Tuesday's drop. Price sits just under a flat EMA20 at 158.33, RSI(14) is near 45 and hourly ranges are compressing ahead of US CPI.
Support: 158.26, 157.83, 157.52
Resistance: 158.33, 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 158.51 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.75 week high
Failure to hold the 158.26 weekly open exposes the 157.83 Tuesday low, then the 157.52 prior-week low (Thursday's NY low)
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Warsh's speech could materially shift this read; a hot core print tests the week high, a soft print tests the Tuesday low
BoJ's Koeda Thu 01:30 UTC could revive yen volatility if October hike odds reprice from ~10%
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.83–158.75 band this week. Monday's NY-session push to the 158.75 week high faded, and the BoJ-report headline at Tuesday's London open drove a sweep to the 157.83 week low before the NY session recovered the move as US yields rose. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace of that drop, hugging a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 158.35 with RSI(14) at 50, while today's Asian-session high at 158.51 marked another rejection under 158.50 and a lower high beneath Monday's peak.
Support: 158.35, 158.26, 157.83
Resistance: 158.51, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.51 rejection and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.75 week high
Loss of the 158.26 weekly open exposes the 157.83 week low and the higher-lows line
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
BoJ Koeda speech Oct 15 01:30 UTC on December hike pricing
01:02 UTC
Range-bound recovery, lower high beneath week high · RSI 56 · price 158.463
USD/JPY opened the week at 158.26 (weekly open) and ground up to a 158.75 week high in Monday's NY session. Tuesday unwound it through Asia, and the Bloomberg report of the BoJ leaning against an October hike drove a London-open spike low at 157.83. That spike was fully reclaimed into NY as US yields rose. Price now holds above the ema20 near 158.35 and is retesting the 158.46–158.50 psych zone, with Tuesday's 158.46 high marking a lower high under the week high; RSI(14) near 56 is mid-range, not stretched.
Support: 158.35, 158.26, 157.83
Resistance: 158.50, 158.75
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.50 psych breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.75 week high
Failure back below the ema20 and the 158.26 weekly open re-exposes the 157.83 spike low
Rising support from Thursday's 157.52 low through the 157.83 spike low frames the base of the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC
BoJ Koeda speech Oct 15 01:30 UTC could reprice yen tightening expectations
00:02 UTC
Range-bound after Monday's push, lower high in place · RSI 57 · price 158.345
158.75 monday high then 157.83 tuesday low; lower high at 158.46, higher low at 158.25, compressing.
Monday's NY session carried price from the 158.26 weekly open to the 158.75 monday high. Tuesday's London-morning BoJ headline whipsaw then flushed it to the 157.83 tuesday low, before firmer US yields lifted it to the 158.46 tue ny high during NY hours. Since then H1 has compressed in a 158.25–158.40 band, above EMA(20) and sitting on EMA(50), around the 0.5–0.618 retrace of the Mon-Tue drop, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR contracting into US CPI.
Support: 158.26, 158.00, 157.83
Resistance: 158.46, 158.75
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today is the main catalyst; a hot core print puts the 158.46 tue ny high and the 158.75 monday high in play
H1 close above 158.46 breaks the lower-high trendline from the monday high
Failure to hold the 158.26 weekly open and the higher low near 158.25 exposes the 158.00 round number
H1 close below the 157.83 tuesday low would mark a lower low for the week
Japanese FX intervention rhetoric could trigger sharp headline-driven reversals if price extends above 158.75