22:02 UTC
Recovering uptrend, higher lows since September · RSI 63 · price 159.843
Seven-week range break above 159.03, testing 160.00.
USD/JPY has carved higher lows since the 8 September swing low at 152.89, and this week cleared the 156.08–159.03 range that capped price through October. Tuesday's core CPI beat and hawkish Fed repricing drove the break through the range top, and price now presses the 160.00 psych level just under the 160.39 sep high. Price holds above both EMAs, with EMA(50) at 158.13 turning higher and RSI at 63.2 below overbought. The last two pushes into this zone, at the july high in late July and the sep high in early September, both reversed by 400–700 pips within days.
Support: 159.03, 158.32, 156.08
Resistance: 160.00, 160.39, 163.98
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below 159.03 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
- Rejection at 160.00 psych / 160.39 sep high alongside escalating MoF intervention language would echo the July and September reversals
- A sustained close above 160.39 sep high opens room toward the 163.98 july high
- Close below the ema20 at 158.32 would put the range back in play toward the 156.08 range low and the higher-lows trendline
- US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC and Japan Q3 GDP Sunday could materially shift this read