Tight 159.77–159.90 band below the late NY high after the 160.00 rejection.
USDJPY was rejected at the 160.00 psych line in a 72-pip spike during NY hours (160.044 to 159.319) as intervention warnings capped the topside. The spike recovery then reclaimed most of the drop to a 159.897 late NY high. Post-rollover trade is compressing in a 159.77–159.90 band above the ema20 at 159.839, with ATR(14) down to 6 pips from 11.
Support: 159.839, 159.767, 159.533
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.897 late NY high reopens a test of the 160.00 psych line, where the NY spike was rejected
Loss of the 159.767 rollover low breaks the spike recovery structure and exposes the 159.533 London low
Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) and any MoF rhetoric into the Tokyo open could break the compression; US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
Tight consolidation under 159.90 after the false break of 160.00.
NY session produced a false break of 160.00. Price spiked to the 160.044 spike high, then flushed about 70 pips to 159.319 on intervention nerves before climbing along a recovery trendline to the 159.897 late high. Early Asia is holding a tight 159.77–159.90 band above the ema20 (159.836) and ema50 (159.799), with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR(14) compressed to 6.3 pips from 11.6.
Support: 159.836, 159.767, 159.518
Resistance: 159.897, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams is speaking now (23:30 UTC) and could break the 159.77–159.90 consolidation
An M15 close above the 159.897 late high puts the 160.044 spike high and 160.00 back in play, where MoF intervention risk has already triggered one rejection
A loss of the 159.767 rollover low and the recovery trendline exposes the 159.518 recovery low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver for a retest of 160.00
Post-spike retrace capped at 159.90, tight range into Asia open.
A NY session false break of the 160.00 psych level to a 160.044 spike high flushed to 159.32 on intervention fear. Price then recovered to a 159.897 session high and has since compressed in a 159.77–159.90 band, sitting on ema20 with ema50 at 159.796 below, while ATR(14) has shrunk to 6.4 pips from 12.2. RSI(14) at 51.6 is neutral as the Asia session opens.
Support: 159.796, 159.767, 159.741
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, minutes away, could break the current compression
M15 close above the 159.897 session high puts the 160.00 psych level and the 160.044 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 159.767 rollover low and the 159.741 swing low exposes the 38.2% spike retrace near 159.68
Any MoF escalation near 160.00 risks a repeat of the NY flush rejection
Tight consolidation under late NY high after spike reversal.
The 16:30 UTC false break through the 160 psych level to a 160.044 spike high reversed 72 pips to 159.319 amid MoF intervention warnings. NY then retraced most of that drop to a late NY high at 159.897. Price is now flat above the rising ema50 and the rollover low into the Asia open, with ATR(14) compressed to 6.4 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 54.1.
Support: 159.795, 159.767, 159.52
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the rollover compression
M15 close above the 159.897 late NY high puts the 160 psych level and the 160.044 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the ema50 and the 159.767 rollover low breaks the post-spike higher-low chain, with the 159.52 post-spike low next
Any MoF headline near 160.00 is unscheduled risk for a repeat rejection
22:46 UTC
Recovering after rejection at 160.00, now flat · RSI 54 · price 159.84
Failed break above 160.00, slow higher-low recovery, tight range into Asia.
The NY-session spike through 160.00 to the 160.044 spike high reversed sharply to 159.319, a failed break with MoF intervention warnings in play. Price then climbed in a steady post-spike recovery to the 159.897 late high and is now holding just above both EMAs near 159.84 into the Asia session. ATR(14) has compressed from 13 to 6.8 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 53.6.
Support: 159.793, 159.767, 159.571
Resistance: 159.897, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 44 minutes out, could break the quiet range
An M15 close above the 159.897 late high reopens the 160.00 area and the 160.044 spike high, where intervention risk sits
An M15 close below the 159.767 late low and the ema50 at 159.793 ends the post-spike recovery and exposes 159.571
Any fresh MoF language near 160.00 could trigger another sharp move lower
Post-spike recovery capped below the late NY high, compressing near the EMAs.
NY's spike through psych 160 to the 160.044 spike high reversed within the same bar to 159.319 as MoF intervention warnings hung over the pair. The recovery from that low stalled at the 159.897 NY high. Price is now drifting in thin post-rollover trade between ema50 (159.79) and ema20 (159.829), with ATR(14) compressed to 6.9 pips from 13.3 and RSI(14) neutral at 48.6.
Support: 159.79, 159.741, 159.533
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could break the current compression
M15 close above the 159.897 NY high reopens a test of psych 160 and the 160.044 spike high
Failure to hold ema50 at 159.79 exposes the 159.741 pullback low and the 38.2% retrace of the recovery near 159.68
Loss of the 159.533 london low would undo most of the recovery from the spike low
Any fresh push into 160.00 carries MoF intervention risk and a sharp JPY snap-back
Post-spike rebuild, compressing below 159.90 after NY close.
A 16:30 UTC spike through the 160.00 psych level to 160.04 reversed to 159.32 in one bar. That false break played out under MoF intervention warnings, and price has since stepped up in higher lows, retracing most of the spike recovery into a tight 159.80–159.90 band after NY close. ATR(14) has compressed from 13.8 to 6.7 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 53.5, with price just above the ema20 at 159.831.
Support: 159.831, 159.80, 159.57
Resistance: 159.897, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the post-close compression in either direction
M15 close above the 159.897 late ny high reopens the 159.98 ny high and the 160.00 psych level, where intervention risk sits
Failure to hold the 159.80 swing low exposes the 38.2% spike recovery retracement near 159.68 and the 159.57 ny base
22:01 UTC
Recovery from NY spike, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 159.843
Higher lows off 159.32, capped below 159.90.
A 16:30 UTC poke through 160.00 to a 160.044 spike high was rejected in one bar, flushing to 159.32 as MoF intervention warnings kept 160.00 defended. The pair has since rebuilt a higher-low recovery line into late NY, stalling at the 159.897 late high. Price sits just above the ema20 at 159.83 and the ema50 at 159.79, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) compressed to 6.9 pips from 14.2.
Support: 159.83, 159.801, 159.787
Resistance: 159.897, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, in about 88 min, could jolt the quiet post-NY tape
Close above the 159.897 late high puts the 159.982 NY high and 160.00 back in play, where the last spike high was rejected
Break of the 159.80 swing low and the recovery line exposes the ema50 at 159.79 and undercuts the higher-low sequence
Any fresh MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could repeat the 70-pip intrabar swing
Higher lows since NY spike low, stalling under the late high.
During NY hours a spike through the 160.00 psych level to a 160.044 spike high reversed to 159.319, a false break consistent with MoF intervention sensitivity. The recovery since has built higher lows to a late high at 159.897. Late NY, price sits above the ema20 (159.829) and ema50 (159.785), with ATR compressed to 7.2 pips and the 159.801 swing low underneath.
Support: 159.829, 159.801, 159.785
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 159.801 swing low breaks the higher-low recovery
Return to the 160.00 psych / 160.044 spike high reopens intervention-risk volatility
Close above the 159.897 late high extends the recovery leg
Higher-low chain off the 159.319 flush, pressing the session high.
The 16:30 UTC spike through psych 160 to a 160.044 spike high reversed to 159.319 in one bar, a false break as MoF intervention warnings capped the pair. Since then rising lows have rebuilt price to the 159.897 session high late in NY hours, above the rising ema20 (159.826) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 55.4 and ATR(14) compressed to 7.6 pips from 14.3.
Support: 159.826, 159.801, 159.741
Resistance: 159.897, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.897 session high puts the 159.98 prior high and psych 160 back in play; a renewed push through 160.00 raises MoF intervention risk
Loss of the 159.801 swing low and the 159.741 higher low breaks the rising lows chain and points back to the 38.2% recovery fib near 159.68
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, around 2h away, could materially shift this read in thin post-NY trade
21:16 UTC
Recovering higher after a failed 160.00 spike, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 159.862
Higher lows off the 159.32 spike low, compressing below 159.90 in late NY.
The 16:30 UTC NY bar ran through 160.00 to a 160.04 spike high and reversed straight to 159.32. That fits the MoF intervention sensitivity flagged near the big figure. Since then the pair has built rising support of higher lows back to 159.86, holding above the ema20 (159.82) and ema50 (159.78). ATR has compressed from 14 to 8 pips, with the recent high at 159.90 capping late-NY trade below the 159.98 ny high.
Support: 159.801, 159.779, 159.572
Resistance: 159.897, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
Close above the 159.98 ny high puts 160.00 and the 160.04 spike high back in play, where intervention risk is highest
Break of rising support and the 159.80 swing low below the ema50 at 159.78 ends the higher-low recovery
Loss of the 159.57 ny low reopens the spike low area
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Recovering in higher lows after a spike rejection · RSI 59 · price 159.887
Higher-low chain from 159.32 spike low, pressing 159.89 below the 159.98–160.04 highs.
The NY-session spike to the 160.04 spike high was rejected hard to 159.32. Price has since retraced almost all of that drop on a steady run of higher lows, and now sits at 159.89 above a rising ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 59. ATR(14) has compressed to 8.2 pips from 14.3 after the spike, and the prior high at 159.98 and the 160.00 handle, where MoF intervention warnings cap the pair, sit just overhead.
Support: 159.82, 159.80, 159.48
Resistance: 159.98, 160.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.98 prior high puts the 160.04 spike high and 160.00 intervention zone back in play
Break below the 159.80 swing low and the higher lows line ends the post-spike recovery chain; overnight low 159.48 is next
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Escalation in MoF language near 160.00 risks a repeat of the sharp rejection
Higher lows since 159.32 spike low, now compressing beneath 159.885 late NY high.
The 16:30 UTC spike through 160.00 to the 160.04 spike high was rejected inside the bar to a 159.32 spike low. That is a false break at the level MoF has been guarding with intervention warnings. Price has since built higher lows back above the ema50 at 159.77 and the rising trendline, but is capped at the 159.885 late NY high, with ATR compressing to 8.6 pips and RSI at 58.3.
Support: 159.80, 159.771, 159.319
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.885 late NY high exposes the 159.98 NY high and the 160.04 spike high, the zone where MoF rhetoric has capped the pair
Close below the 159.80 late NY low and the rising trendline breaks the post-spike higher-low chain; the ema50 at 159.77 is next
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, around 2.7h away, could shift the read if he endorses larger hikes
Any fresh MoF or intervention headline near 160.00 risks a repeat of the spike low move toward 159.32
20:31 UTC
Recovering after rejection at 160.00, momentum neutral · RSI 55 · price 159.83
Higher lows since the 159.32 spike low, capped below 159.885.
A 16:30 UTC poke through psych 160 to 160.04 was rejected inside the same bar, dropping to a 159.32 spike low. The move fits the MoF warnings in the digest. Price has since retraced most of the drop along a rising recovery line, sitting above the ema20 (159.80) and ema50 (159.77) in late NY hours, with ATR(14) compressed to 8.9 pips from 14.3.
Support: 159.804, 159.767, 159.319
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.885 recovery high opens a retest of the 159.98 pre-spike high and psych 160
Break of the recovery line and the ema50 at 159.77 exposes the 159.53 London low and the 159.32 spike low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and any escalation in MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could materially shift this read
The 16:30 UTC bar swept through 160.00 to the 160.044 spike high and was rejected 72 pips to the 159.319 spike low, in line with MoF intervention sensitivity near the figure. The recovery has retraced about 78% of that drop. After London close it is flattening between the 159.741 swing low and the 159.885 evening high, holding just above ema20 (159.801) and ema50 (159.764). RSI is at 52.4 and ATR has compressed to 9.2 pips from 14.3.
Support: 159.801, 159.741, 159.319
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.885 evening high puts the 159.982 pre-spike high and the 160.00–160.044 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 159.741 swing low reopens the recovery fib 50% near 159.60 and the 159.319 spike low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (in ~3h) could break the consolidation; Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI is the larger risk
Renewed MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could repeat the sweep-and-rejection
Higher lows off the 159.32 spike low, stalling below the 159.885 recovery high.
In NY hours the pair briefly broke above 160.00 to a 160.04 spike high. Supply hit immediately and price fell to 159.32 in one bar, consistent with MoF intervention warnings capping the pair near 160.00. Since then a higher-low recovery has rebuilt to the 159.885 recovery high; late in the NY session price holds just above the ema20 at 159.80, with ATR(14) contracting from 14.3 to 9.6 pips.
Support: 159.80, 159.741, 159.571
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.74 swing low breaks the post-spike higher-low sequence and exposes the 159.57 pivot low
Break above the 159.885 recovery high opens the 159.98 prior high, with the 160.04 spike high and 160.00 psych above
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC; escalation in MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could materially shift this read
NY session printed a spike high at 160.04 around 16:30 UTC, then flushed to 159.32 in the same bar. That false break of 160.00 fits the MoF warnings flagged in the digest. Price has since recovered on a recovery line of higher lows to 159.87, holding above the ema20 at 159.797, while ATR(14) compresses to 9.9 pips from 14.3 in late-NY trade below the 159.98 session high.
Support: 159.797, 159.741, 159.48
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
A close above the 159.885 recent high and then the 159.98 session high puts the 160.04 spike high and 160.00 back in play, where intervention risk already produced one rejection
A break of the 159.74 swing low and the recovery line ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 159.48 overnight low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with US PPI Friday 13:30 UTC next
Higher lows off 159.32 spike low, pressing 159.88.
A single NY-session bar spiked through 160.00 psych to the 160.04 spike high and reversed to 159.32. The flush came against an MoF intervention-risk backdrop. Late NY, the recovery has built higher lows back to 159.88, above the ema20 (159.79) and EMA50 (159.756), with RSI(14) at 57.8 and ATR cooling to 10.4 pips from 14.3 after the spike.
Support: 159.79, 159.741, 159.571
Resistance: 159.982, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.98 session high puts 160.00 psych and the 160.04 spike high back in play, where MoF intervention risk is concentrated
Loss of the ema20 at 159.79 and the 159.74 swing low would break the recovery's higher-low chain and expose the 159.57 ny low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 159.319 spike low, capped under 159.885.
Mid-NY session, a single bar spiked through 160.00 to the 160.044 spike high and flushed to 159.319, a sharp rejection that fits the MoF intervention sensitivity flagged by Mimura. Price has since built a higher-low chain off the post-spike low at 159.518 and the swing low at 159.698. It sits at 159.835 above ema20 and ema50, with ATR cooling from 14.3 to 10.8 pips and the recovery high at 159.885 capping for now.
Support: 159.783, 159.698, 159.518
Resistance: 159.885, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.885 recovery high reopens the 159.982 prior high and the 160.00 line
Loss of ema20 at 159.783 and the recovery line puts the 159.698 swing low back in play
Break below the 159.518 post-spike low would undo the higher-low chain
A retest of 160.00 or the 160.044 spike high carries renewed MoF rhetoric and intervention spike risk
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Recovering after rejection at 160.00, momentum neutral · RSI 56 · price 159.84
Post-spike higher lows inside a 159.32–160.04 NY range.
The 16:30 UTC bar spiked through 160.00 to the 160.04 spike high and reversed to the 159.32 spike low in one candle, with MoF intervention warnings hanging over the figure. Late in the NY session, price has rebuilt above the ema20 and EMA50 on a recovery line of higher lows. ATR is easing from 14 toward 11 pips and the 159.98 session high still caps.
Support: 159.775, 159.57, 159.32
Resistance: 159.98, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.98 session high brings the 160.04 spike high and the 160.00 figure back into play
Break of the recovery line and ema20 near 159.78 reopens the 159.57 ny low
Loss of 159.57 exposes the 159.32 spike low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and any escalation in MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 159.32 spike low, capped at 159.83 recovery high.
NY hours briefly poked through the 160.00 psych line to a 160.044 spike high, then flushed 72 pips to a 159.319 spike low in one bar, with MoF intervention warnings in the backdrop. Price has since rebuilt above the ema20 and ema50 along a rising recovery line, but late-NY trade is stalling under the 159.83 recovery high. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.1 and ATR(14) is easing to 11.6 pips from the post-spike 14.3.
Support: 159.769, 159.571, 159.319
Resistance: 159.827, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 recovery high reopens the 160.00 psych line and the 160.044 spike high
Break of the recovery line and the ema20 at 159.769 exposes the 159.57 swing low
Loss of the 159.57 swing low puts the 159.32 spike low back in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Monthly Budget Statement due in 14 min
Higher-low chain off 159.52 after the 160.04 spike reversal.
The 16:30 UTC bar spiked through 160.00 to the 160.04 spike high, then reversed 72 pips to 159.32, sweeping both the NY high and the Asian low. The move fits the intervention sensitivity MoF has flagged near 160. After London close, price has built a higher-low chain above 159.70 along a rising support line and is now pressing the 159.83 recovery high, above ema20 at 159.765 with RSI(14) neutral at 52.8 and ATR easing to 12.2 pips.
Support: 159.765, 159.698, 159.533
Resistance: 159.827, 159.982, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 recovery high reopens the 159.98 NY high and the 160.04 spike high
Loss of the 159.70 higher low and the rising support line ends the post-spike recovery and exposes the london low at 159.53
Fed's Schmid (now), the Budget Statement at 19:00 UTC and Williams at 23:30 UTC; any 160.00 retest carries renewed intervention-spike risk
18:16 UTC
Recovering after a failed 160.00 test · RSI 53 · price 159.812
Higher lows since the NY spike, below the ny high.
A single NY-hours bar spiked through 160.00 to a 160.04 spike high, then collapsed to a 159.32 spike low. That 72-pip false break was rejected at the figure where MoF intervention warnings sit. After London close, price has rebuilt a chain of higher lows back above the ema20 (159.76) and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.8 and ATR(14) lifted to 12.6 pips from about 9.
Support: 159.762, 159.57, 159.32
Resistance: 159.98, 160.04
What it said to watch
A close above the 159.98 ny high puts the 160.04 spike high and the 160.00 intervention zone back in play
A break of the recovery line and the ema20 near 159.76 exposes the 159.57 swing low
Fed's Schmid in 14 min and Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read; the 159.32 spike low marks the floor of the spike range
18:01 UTC
Recovering after a whipsaw, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 159.786
Higher lows since the 160.00 false break, capped at 159.80.
The NY session ran to a spike high of 160.04, briefly through the 160.00 round number, and the same bar fell to a 159.32 spike low. That false break, at the level where intervention risk is flagged, lifted ATR(14) to 13 pips from about 9. Price has since rebuilt above ema20 and ema50 along a recovery line of higher lows, RSI(14) is neutral at 51, and the 159.80 post-spike high is capping for now.
Support: 159.759, 159.57, 159.32
Resistance: 159.80, 160.00, 160.044
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) speak within the next half hour and could quickly shift this read
M15 close above the 159.80 post-spike high reopens the 160.00 round number and the 160.04 spike high, where MoF intervention sensitivity is acute
Break of the recovery line and ema20 at 159.76 exposes the 159.57 NY low, with the 159.32 spike low below that
False break above 160.00, rebound into 159.48–159.98 range.
In the NY session price pushed through the 159.98 session high to a 160.04 spike high at 16:30 UTC, then reversed 72 pips to a 159.32 spike low. That false break of 160.00 lands squarely in the MoF intervention zone flagged in the yen backdrop. Price has since recovered about 62% of the drop to 159.77, holding above the ema50 at 159.735 but closing just under the ema20 at 159.757. RSI(14) is neutral at 49.8, and ATR(14) jumped to 13.3 pips from roughly 9.
Support: 159.735, 159.48, 159.32
Resistance: 159.98, 160.04
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly in 24 min and Schmid in 44 min can test the 159.98 session high again
A M15 close back above 160.04 spike high negates the false-break read
Loss of ema50 at 159.735 puts the 159.48 asian low back in focus
A break below the 159.32 spike low would mark a lower low beneath the whole 24h range
Any MoF rhetoric near 160.00 can trigger outsized intraday moves
False break above 160.00 rejected; price back inside the day's range.
The NY session rally pushed through 160.00 to a 160.04 spike high in the 16:30 UTC bar around Goolsbee's remarks. That bar then reversed to a 159.32 spike low, swept the asian low and closed back near 159.65, in line with the MoF intervention risk flagged around 160. Price now sits back in the 159.48–159.94 day range, below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39.5 and ATR(14) jumping to 14.3 pips from 8.8.
Support: 159.533, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.738, 159.773, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 159.74 and ema20 at 159.77 returns price to the pre-spike NY range
Failure to hold the london low at 159.53 and asian low at 159.48 exposes the 159.32 spike low
A return to the 160.04 spike high would retest the false break at 160.00
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could revive the 160.00 test; further MoF rhetoric keeps two-way spike risk elevated
False break above 160.00 reversed in one bar to below the Asia low; price back mid-range.
The NY session push through 160.00 to a 160.04 spike high reversed in a single ~72-pip bar to a 159.32 spike low, with MoF intervention risk around 160 the known backdrop. Price has recovered to 159.64 but sits below ema50 (159.74) and ema20 (159.79). RSI(14) dropped from 67 to 42 and ATR(14) jumped to 13.4 pips from ~9; the 159.57 ny low and 159.48 asia low are the nearest floors.
Support: 159.567, 159.477, 159.319
Resistance: 159.744, 159.791, 160.044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 159.79 would put the rejection in doubt and reopen the 160.04 spike high
Failure to hold the 159.57 ny low exposes the 159.48 asia low and the 159.32 spike low
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift this read; intervention headlines near 160.00 remain a two-way shock risk
Elevated ATR after the spike bar; continued compression would point to the 159.57–159.79 band holding as a range
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the 160.00 round number · RSI 67 · price 159.996
Higher lows since late London; London high broken in NY.
NY session lifted USDJPY off a run of higher lows (159.533 late London, then 159.559 and 159.572 around the claims print, which did not dent Fed-hike pricing). The rally closed above the 159.944 London high and is now testing the 160.00 round number, where MoF intervention warnings sit. RSI(14) at 67 is firm but not extreme; ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 159.944, 159.866, 159.806
Resistance: 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 159.944 london high would mark the breakout as a false break
Rejection at the 160.00 round number, or MoF rhetoric/rate checks there, risks a sharp yen spike
Loss of the 159.866 swing low and the ema20 at 159.806 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Goolsbee speaking now, Daly 18:10 UTC and Schmid 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
50% fib of the NY rally sits near 159.777, the line between a shallow pullback and a deeper retrace
Higher lows since Asia; NY breakout above London high now consolidating.
A firm USD lifted the pair off the 159.572 NY low through the 159.944 London high to a 159.982 session high, extending the higher-low chain from the Asian 159.48 base. It is now consolidating in a 159.87–159.96 band just under the 160.00 psych level, where MoF intervention warnings cap the topside, above a rising ema20 at 159.789 with RSI(14) at 63.2.
Support: 159.866, 159.789, 159.572
Resistance: 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in ~14 min, then Daly and Schmid; hawkish hike talk could press the 159.982 session high and 160.00 psych
M15 close above 160.00 psych extends the breakout, but sharp intervention-driven reversal risk rises there
Failure to hold the 159.866 pullback low exposes ema20 at 159.789, near the 50% fib of the NY rally
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 159.572 ny low ends the higher-low sequence
NY broke the day range; higher lows at 159.533, 159.559 and 159.572.
NY session rallied from the 159.572 ny low, broke above the 159.944 london high and tagged a 159.982 session high just under the 160.00 psych level. It has since stalled there, with three bars of upper wicks and RSI(14) easing to 62.7. Fed-BoJ divergence keeps the yen pinned, while MoF intervention warnings hang over any 160 test.
Support: 159.866, 159.777, 159.572
Resistance: 159.944, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 159.944 london high would turn the range break into a false break
Clean break of 160.00 psych runs into MoF intervention risk; a sudden yen spike is the two-way risk there
Loss of the 159.866 pullback low brings the ema20 at 159.777, near the 50% fib, into play
Close below the 159.572 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, Daly 18:10 and Schmid 18:30 could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 159.53; NY broke Asia high, paused near session high.
After US claims, the NY session rallied from the 159.572 swing low, clearing the asia high and london high to a 159.982 session high just shy of the 160.00 psych level. Price is holding above the ema20 with RSI(14) at 64 and ATR(14) up to 9.1 pips, but upside has paused under 160.00, where MoF intervention warnings sit.
Support: 159.874, 159.764, 159.572
Resistance: 159.944, 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC (44 min), then Daly and Schmid, could materially shift this read
A clean M15 close above the 160.00 psych level opens intervention risk and sharp two-way moves
An M15 close back below the 159.874 asia high puts the breakout in doubt and opens the 50% fib near the ema20 at 159.764
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 159.572 swing low ends the intraday uptrend read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, stalling under 160 · RSI 65 · price 159.911
Range break higher, new session high above London open high.
After a muted claims reaction, NY hours broke the 159.53–159.79 range. The run printed a session high at 159.98, above the 159.94 London open high, and the 15:15 UTC bar was capped just under the 160.00 round number, where MoF intervention warnings sit. RSI(14) is at 64.6 and ATR has expanded to 9.3 pips, with price holding above the ema20 at 159.75.
Support: 159.79, 159.748, 159.533
Resistance: 159.982, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.98 session high exposes the 160.00 round number, where intervention risk raises the odds of a sharp yen spike
Close back below the 159.79 range top, near the 50% fib of the NY rally, would mark the breakout as failing
Loss of the ema20 at 159.75 reopens the london low at 159.53
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC and Daly at 18:10 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday range, testing top on NY rally · RSI 64 · price 159.94
159.48–159.95 range; NY higher low at 159.57, price pressing range top.
NY session rally off the 159.57 ny low, with little reaction to in-line claims, has carried price back to the 159.94 london high, which matches yesterday's session high. That leaves price just under 160.00 psych, the level tied to MoF intervention warnings. RSI(14) has climbed from 42 to 64.4, ATR is up to 9.5 pips, and price holds above both EMAs, but the 24h range is intact until a close above 159.95.
Support: 159.874, 159.73, 159.559
Resistance: 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 159.95 london high breaks the 24h range and puts 160.00 psych in play, where intervention risk is concentrated
Rejection at 159.95 leaves a double cap; slipping back below the 159.87 asia high exposes the ny rally fib 50% near 159.76 and ema20 at 159.73
Loss of the rising lows line and the 159.56 ny low would undo the NY higher low
Goolsbee in ~74 min, then Daly and Schmid during NY hours, could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range, higher lows building · RSI 62 · price 159.87
Higher lows since Asia inside 159.48–159.94 day range, now pressing range top.
Mid-NY, USDJPY sits in the upper half of the 159.48–159.94 day range. After the claims print, demand stepped in at 159.56–159.57 and lifted price through the 159.79 ny pivot to 159.87, with RSI(14) at 61.9 and ATR expanding to 9.6 pips. Lows have stepped higher through Asia, London and NY (159.48, 159.53, 159.57). The london high at 159.94 and 160.00 psych, where MoF intervention warnings sit, still cap the range.
Support: 159.79, 159.711, 159.533
Resistance: 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.94 london high puts 160.00 psych in play, with MoF intervention risk around that level
Slip back below the 159.79 ny pivot returns price to the range middle; the ny rally 50% retracement sits near the ema20 at 159.71
Break of the higher lows line and the 159.53 london low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, then Daly and Schmid, could shift the read
14:46 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 56 · price 159.756
NY range 159.53–159.79 below London's 159.94 rejection.
London open rejected the 159.94 session high and faded to a 159.53 swing low. NY has since held a 159.53–159.79 range, with higher lows at 159.56 and 159.57 after 200K claims. Price is back above the flat ema20 (159.695), RSI(14) is 56 and ATR is 9.4 pips and ticking up, while the 159.79 range top has capped twice this session.
Support: 159.695, 159.572, 159.533
Resistance: 159.792, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.79 range top opens the 159.94 session high and 160.00 psych, where MoF intervention risk sits
Failure below the 159.57 higher low breaks the rising-lows chain and exposes the 159.53 swing low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in 14 min, then Goolsbee and Daly, could shift this read
Slip back under the ema20 at 159.695 returns price to mid-range chop
14:31 UTC
Range below flat EMAs, mild downside drift · RSI 42 · price 159.664
Range 159.53–159.79 after rejection at day high.
London open set a marginal new day high at 159.944, just under 160.00 and MoF intervention warnings, and was rejected. Price has since ranged 159.53–159.79 with lower highs off the day high. The NY bounce after claims printed 200K faded from the 159.792 ny high as Fedspeak got under way, and price now sits below a flat ema20 near 159.69, around the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-to-London leg.
Support: 159.572, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.687, 159.792, 159.944
What it said to watch
A close below the 159.533 london low exposes the 159.477 asian low, the base of the Asia-to-London leg
A recovery above the ema20 near 159.69 and the 159.792 ny high breaks the lower highs and brings the 159.944 day high back into view
Barr at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee and Daly later in NY hours, could shift this read; MoF intervention risk stays live into 160.00
14:16 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 159.655
Lower highs from 159.94, NY range 159.56–159.79.
London open was rejected at 159.94, just shy of 160.00 with MoF intervention warnings in play. The drop ran to a london low of 159.53, above the asia low at 159.48, and left lower highs. The NY bounce after the claims miss stalled at the ny high of 159.79, the 61.8% retrace of the London drop, and price now sits below the flat ema20/ema50 at 159.694, RSI 46.6, ATR 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.559, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.694, 159.792, 159.944
What it said to watch
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~44 min could break the 159.56–159.79 NY range
Failure to hold the ny low at 159.56 exposes the london low at 159.53 and the asia low at 159.48
M15 close back above ema20 at 159.694 and the ny high at 159.79 negates the lower-highs read and puts the london high at 159.94 back in focus
Any approach to 160.00 carries MoF intervention risk and sudden yen spikes
Lower highs off the London high, range 159.53–159.79 inside the Asian range.
London pushed to a london high of 159.94 just above yesterday's top and was rejected as MoF's Mimura called moves 'too rapid'. Since then price has ranged between 159.53 (london low) and 159.79 inside the Asian range, near the 61.8% of the asian low to london high leg, with flat EMA20/50 around 159.70. Early in NY, the 200K jobless claims print drew a pop to the 159.79 claims high that faded into another lower high; RSI 50.4 is neutral and ATR is 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.559, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.792, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.79 claims high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 159.94 london high
Failure to hold the 159.56 swing low and 159.53 london low exposes the 159.48 asian low
Psych 160 is the MoF intervention line, so any approach carries two-way gap risk on rate-check headlines
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~1h, then Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, could break the range
13:46 UTC
Sideways, rising lows under a 159.94 cap · RSI 55 · price 159.76
159.48–159.94 range, higher lows since Asia, lower highs since London.
USDJPY rejected the 159.94 double top under 160.00 early in London. It has since printed rising lows at the 159.48 Asia low, the 159.53 London low and 159.56 on the claims bar. The in-line 200K claims print sparked a NY-open dip that was bought back above flat EMAs near 159.70. Price is now pressing the fib 61.8 of the London drop at 159.79, RSI(14) 55, ATR 8.5 pips.
Support: 159.697, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.787, 159.834, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 asia high reopens the 159.94 double top and the 160.00 MoF line
Close below the ema20 at 159.70 and the rising trendline puts the 159.53 london low back in play
Loss of the 159.48 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC, then Barr and Goolsbee, could shift this read
Any MoF or rate-check headline near 160.00 carries gap-lower risk
13:31 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, lower highs · RSI 53 · price 159.708
159.53–159.78 range under descending highs from 159.94.
Price was rejected at the 159.94 London high after Mimura's 'too rapid' intervention warning. Since then it has held a 159.53–159.78 range, with the London low defended twice and each bounce capped by a lower swing high. Price sits just above flat EMAs near the ema20 at 159.69, RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR(14) is 8.3 pips going into US jobless claims.
Support: 159.691, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.776, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC, f/c 195K) lands in the current bar and could break the range either way
M15 close above the 159.78 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 159.94 London high back in play
159.94 London high and 160.00 psych level: MoF verbal-intervention line, where any spike risks a sharp reversal
Failure to hold the 159.53 London low exposes the 159.48 Asian low
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC, then Barr at 15:00 UTC, could shift the range read during NY hours
Lower highs below flat EMAs, compressing 159.53–159.73.
London pushed through the Asian range high to 159.94, matching yesterday's 159.937 peak, and was rejected after Mimura's intervention warnings. That set a double top. Price has since printed lower highs below a flat ema20/ema50 near 159.69 and is compressing above the 159.53 session low into the NY open, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR(14) easing to 7.7 pips.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.685, 159.734, 159.944
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT, then Fed speakers from 14:00 GMT, could break the current compression
M15 close above the 159.73 lower high and the lower-highs trendline undoes the post-rejection drift
Loss of the 159.53 session low exposes the 159.48 Asian low
A return to the 159.94 double top brings MoF intervention risk near 160.00 back into play
12:46 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 159.69
Lower highs from 159.94 against a higher low at 159.59, range compressing.
Early London tagged a day high at 159.94, just under 160.00 psych, and was rejected as MoF intervention warnings cap the topside. The slide stopped at the 159.53 London low, above the 159.48 Asian low. Price now sits flat on EMA20/EMA50 near 159.69 between a 159.59 higher low and a 159.73 lower high at the 50% fib of the London drop, with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR(14) compressing to 7.7 pips ahead of the NY open.
Support: 159.594, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.734, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT and Fedspeak from 14:00 GMT could break the compression
M15 close above the 159.73 lower high and 50% fib reopens the day high at 159.94
Failure to hold the 159.59 higher low exposes the 159.53 London low and 159.48 Asian low
Approach to 160.00 psych raises MoF intervention risk and the potential for an abrupt yen spike
12:31 UTC
Range after London rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 159.698
Lower highs since 159.944 London high, base at 159.53, chopping around flat EMAs.
London open spiked to the 159.944 london high, a false break of yesterday's 159.937 peak just under the 160.00 psych line as MoF jawboning capped the pair. Price then sold off to a 159.533 london low that held above the 159.477 asia low. Late London now has price at 159.70, just above a flat ema20 and EMA50 and capped by the 159.734 swing high near the fib 50%, with RSI(14) at 50 and ATR compressed to 8 pips.
Support: 159.689, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.734, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.734 swing high (fib 50%) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 159.944 london high back in play
Failure to hold the ema20 and then the 159.533 london low exposes the 159.477 asia low
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC (in ~59 min) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 could push the range well past the 8-pip ATR
A push toward the 160.00 psych line carries elevated MoF intervention risk and could change the read abruptly
12:16 UTC
Sideways after London rejection, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 159.674
Lower highs since 159.944 London high, ranging 159.53–159.76 below flat EMAs.
London open made a false break above yesterday's NY high to 159.944, just shy of 160.00, and was rejected as MoF intervention warnings capped the pair. Price has since rotated between the 159.533 London low and the 159.734 swing high, with lower highs along the trendline and closes holding below a flat ema20 at 159.688. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.1 and ATR(14) is 8.3 pips.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.688, 159.734, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.734 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 159.944 London high
Failure to hold the 159.533 London low exposes the 159.477 Asian low
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC, followed by Hammack at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A push toward 160.00 brings MoF intervention risk back into play
Lower highs since London open, holding above Asian range low.
The Asian bid was rejected at 159.94 after London open, a double top against yesterday's 159.94 NY high, with MoF warnings capping the approach to 160. Since then London has printed lower highs at 159.76 and 159.73 and a 159.53 london low. The bounce stalled near the 50% fib of the London decline, and price sits back below the flat ema20/ema50 around 159.69, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.7.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.692, 159.734, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.73 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 159.53 london low exposes the 159.48 asia low
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Retest of the 159.94 double top brings 160.00 MoF intervention risk into play
11:46 UTC
Sideways, capped under 160.00 · RSI 52 · price 159.723
159.48–159.94 range; London lower high at 159.76 after a rejection at the top.
London open briefly broke the Asian range to 159.94, but the move was rejected just under the 160.00 MoF line. That high matched yesterday's NY peak to form a double top, as Mimura's intervention warning capped the yen's losses. Price dipped to the London low at 159.53, held above the Asian low and recovered to the flat ema20/ema50 near 159.69, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.9.
Support: 159.693, 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.762, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.76 lower high reopens the double top at 159.94
Failure to hold the 159.53 London low exposes the 159.48 Asian low and the range floor
Price is near the 50%–61.8% retracement of the London drop at 159.74–159.79, an area to watch for rejection or break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Any test of the 160.00 MoF line carries intervention-headline risk
11:31 UTC
Range, London lower highs · RSI 50 · price 159.686
159.48–159.94 range; lower highs since London rejection.
London rejected 159.94, matching yesterday's 159.94 high just under the 160.00 MoF line flagged in Mimura's warnings, and slid to the 159.53 London low, above the 159.48 Asian low. Price has bounced late in London to the flat EMA20/EMA50 around 159.69, with RSI(14) at 49.7 and ATR at 8.5 pips. The 159.76 lower high caps the recovery for now.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.762, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.76 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 159.53 London low exposes the 159.48 Asian low and the range floor
A retest of the 159.94 London high puts 160.00 and intervention risk back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could reset the range in the first hour of NY
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London open high · RSI 46 · price 159.656
Lower highs and lower lows since 159.94 rejection.
London open rejected 159.94, a double top against yesterday's 159.937 high, as MoF warnings kept 160 capped. Price has since printed lower highs down to a 159.53 london low and now sits under the ema20 (159.69), which has crossed below the ema50 and lines up with the 38.2% of the london drop fib.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.69, 159.762, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.76 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 159.53 london low exposes the 159.48 asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high · RSI 41 · price 159.613
Lower highs since 07:15 UTC rejection, pressing session low.
London open briefly lifted price above the prior NY high to 159.944, just shy of the 160.00 line where MoF intervention warnings sit, then rejected into a chain of London lower highs, with the 159.762 lower high capping the first bounce, and fell back below the flat EMA20/50 at 159.694. Price now tests the 159.533 session low above the 159.477 Asian low, a roughly 71% retrace of the Asian low–London high leg. RSI(14) is at 41.3 and ATR is 8.5 pips.
Support: 159.533, 159.477
Resistance: 159.694, 159.762, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.477 Asian low breaks the Asian range and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20/50 at 159.694 and the 159.762 lower high would break the London lower highs line
A retest of the 159.944 London high brings the 160.00 MoF line back into focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 159.59
LH/LL chain off 159.94, in lower half of Asian range.
London open pushed to a 159.94 London high just shy of 160.00 and was rejected, with MoF intervention warnings capping the pair. Price has since printed lower highs and a session low at 159.54, sitting below the flattening ema20/50 near 159.70 with RSI(14) at 38.8 and the 159.48 Asian low the next reference.
Support: 159.536, 159.477
Resistance: 159.70, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.48 Asian low breaks the overnight range to the downside
Close back above the 159.70 ema20/50 and the lower-highs line negates the intraday downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from Hammack and Barr could materially shift this read
A return to the 159.94 London high puts the 160.00 MoF line back in play
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 159.627
Failed push above Asian range, lower highs over a 159.61 floor.
London open pushed above the Asian range to 159.944, just shy of 160.00, and was rejected as Mimura's intervention warnings capped the move. Price has since printed lower highs below the ema20 at 159.715 and slipped under the 61.8% of the Asia-London swing. The London low at 159.606 has held three tests, with RSI at 42.4 and ATR at 8.3 pips.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.715, 159.762, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.606 London low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 159.477 Asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.715 and the 159.762 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline read
A return to the 159.944 London high puts the 160.00 MoF line back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reset the NY session range
10:16 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 159.683
London false break of Asian high, lower highs onto a flat 159.61 floor.
Early London pushed above the Asian range high to a 159.944 session high, just shy of the 160 psych line flagged by MoF intervention warnings. Price was rejected back inside the range and has since printed lower highs onto a flat london low at 159.61. It sits at 159.68, below the ema20 (159.723) and EMA50 (159.705), between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the asian low-to-session high leg, with RSI 44.5 and ATR steady near 8.5 pips.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.723, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.61 london low exposes the 159.48 asian low
Recovery above the ema20 at 159.72 and the 159.76 lower high would unwind the London rejection
A retest of the 159.94 session high puts the 160 psych line and intervention risk back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could break the London range
London false break above prior high, now basing mid-Asian range.
London open pushed to a 159.944 london high, just above yesterday's 159.937 peak, then reversed sharply to a 159.606 london low as intervention warnings keep 160.00 capped. Mid-London, price compresses near 159.70, below the ema20 at 159.729 and fractionally under the 159.706 ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR around 8.5 pips; the Asian low at 159.477 is the next floor.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.729, 159.834, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.606 london low exposes the 159.477 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.729 and the 159.834 asian high would neutralise the false-break read
A retest of the 159.944 london high brings 160.00 and intervention rhetoric back into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failed London break of prior high, back inside Asian range.
London open pushed past yesterday's 159.937 high to a 159.944 london high, then reversed hard. That false break dropped price back inside the Asian range (asian low 159.48, asian high 159.83), with supply near 160.00 as intervention warnings cap the topside. Price is now pivoting on the ema50 at 159.706, just under the ema20 at 159.731, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.9 and ATR(14) at 8.7 pips.
Support: 159.706, 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.731, 159.834, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.606 london low exposes the 159.477 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 159.834 asian high puts the 159.944 london high back in play; 60% of the London drop fib retrace sits near 159.81
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could break the range
Any MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger an outsized drop
09:31 UTC
Range after rally, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 159.692
London false break above prior high, now mid-range below EMAs.
London open briefly pushed past yesterday's 159.94 high to a 159.944 london high, then reversed 30 pips. The break faded as intervention warnings capped the approach to 160.00. Price now chops near the 50% retrace of the asia low to london high swing, under the ema20 at 159.734, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.8 and ATR(14) at 9 pips.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.734, 159.944
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 159.606 london low exposes the 159.477 asia low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 159.734 restores the range-top test toward 159.944
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Any approach to 160.00 carries MoF intervention risk and spike-and-reversal potential
London false break above Asian high, lower highs since.
London pushed through the Asian range to a 159.944 london high, just above yesterday's 159.937 top, then reversed to a 159.606 london low. Price now sits below the ema20 at 159.738 and the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 45.6. Mimura's intervention warnings near the psych 160.00 level are capping the highs, while the 159.477 asian low marks the base of the session range.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.738, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 at 159.74 and the lower-highs trendline reopens a test of the london high at 159.944
Failure to hold the london low at 159.606 exposes the asian low at 159.477
Any approach to the psych 160.00 level carries intervention and MoF rhetoric risk
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Fed speakers in NY hours, could break the range
09:01 UTC
Range-bound after London rejection, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 159.682
London false break above prior high at 159.94, now inside Asian range.
London opened with a push to a 159.944 day high, just above yesterday's NY peak. It was rejected within two bars as intervention caution kept 160.00 off-limits despite USD strength. Price is back inside the Asian range near the 61.8% of the Asia-London fib, below the ema20 at 159.744 with RSI(14) at 46.3 and ATR(14) at 9.2 pips.
Support: 159.606, 159.477
Resistance: 159.744, 159.834, 159.944
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 159.606 exposes the asian low at 159.477
M15 close back above the ema20 and the asian high at 159.834 would neutralise the rejection read
A retest of the day high at 159.944 sits against MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could break the range
London false break above the prior high, now back inside the Asian range.
London open briefly pushed through yesterday's 159.937 peak to a 159.94 session high. Price then reversed, and the false break has unwound to the 61.8% retrace of the 159.48 asian low to 159.94 move, with price below the ema20 (159.75) and the ema50 (159.71). Mimura's intervention warnings keep supply capping below 160.00. RSI(14) sits at 44.6 and ATR runs about 9 pips.
Support: 159.64, 159.48
Resistance: 159.709, 159.83, 159.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.64 swing low exposes the 159.48 asian low
Reclaim of the ema50 at 159.71 and the ema20 at 159.75 would neutralise the rejection read
Re-acceptance above the 159.83 asian high reopens the 159.94 session high and the 160.00 intervention zone
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Range after rally, upside momentum stalled · RSI 50 · price 159.736
London false break above prior high, back inside Asian range.
London open pushed above the Asian high at 159.834 to a 159.944 session high, just over yesterday's 159.937 top, then rejected into the 160.00 intervention-sensitive zone as the yen outperformed. Price has slipped back inside the Asian range and sits between the ema20 (159.759) and ema50 (159.71), near the 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg. RSI is flat at 49.5 and ATR is 9 pips.
Support: 159.71, 159.677, 159.477
Resistance: 159.759, 159.834, 159.944
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.677 london low exposes the 61.8% fib near 159.655, then the 159.477 asian low
Reclaiming the ema20 and the 159.834 asian high reopens the 159.944 session high and the 160.00 handle
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (~5h) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Any MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00 risks a sharp extension of the rejection
08:16 UTC
Intraday range, faded from London high · RSI 46 · price 159.703
False break above prior high, pullback inside Asian range.
London open pushed past yesterday's 159.937 high to a London high at 159.944, just shy of the 160.00 psych level, then reversed about 27 pips to a London low at 159.677 as intervention warnings kept JPY supported. Price sits below the ema20 (159.76) and fractionally under the ema50 (159.709), with RSI(14) at 45.7 and ATR at 9.1 pips. The Asian range of 159.477–159.834 still frames the session, and the 159.637 swing low sits at the 61.8% fib of the rally off the Asian low.
Support: 159.677, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.76, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.637 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low trendline and exposes the asian low at 159.477
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.76 would turn the London high rejection into range chop below 159.944
Renewed push toward 160.00 psych runs into MoF intervention sensitivity
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break of prior high at London open, pullback into Asian range.
London open briefly broke yesterday's 159.937 high to a 159.944 day high, just shy of the 160.00 psych level, then fell about 24 pips back to the 50% fib near 159.70. Price now sits below the ema20 (159.767) and fractionally below the ema50 (159.710), with RSI(14) at 46.7 and ATR at 9.4 pips. Asia set a 159.477 low after the firmer Japan PPI and has since held a 159.48–159.83 range. MOF intervention rhetoric continues to cap the 160.00 area.
Support: 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.767, 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.637 swing low exposes the 159.477 asia low
Reclaim of ema20 at 159.767 would neutralise the London-open rejection
Break of the 159.944 day high into 160.00 psych raises intervention-spike risk per MOF warnings
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Range-bound below 160.00, higher lows since Asia · RSI 52 · price 159.78
159.48–159.94 range; London open rejected at prior high.
Firmer Japan PPI and MOF intervention warnings drove the Asian low at 159.48, but higher lows at 159.64/159.66 carried price back to the prior high. London open printed 159.944 and was rejected below the 160.00 psych level. Price now sits on the ema20 at 159.77, mid-way through the last leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.7 and ATR at 9.3 pips.
Support: 159.774, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.944 prior high puts 160.00 psych in play, where the digest flags intervention risk
Hold of the ema20 near 159.77 keeps the higher-low sequence from Asia intact
Break below the 159.637 higher low exposes the 159.48 asian low and the range floor
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reshape the range
London break of Asian range, higher lows, testing prior high.
Early London lifted USD/JPY out of the 159.48–159.83 Asian range to a session high at 159.944, a marginal print above yesterday's 159.937 peak. Higher lows carried the move and RSI(14) sits at 62.6. The yen held firm in Asia after the firmer Japan PPI and MOF 'too rapid' warnings, and the 160.00 psych level is where intervention risk sits.
Support: 159.834, 159.773, 159.477
Resistance: 159.944, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 160.00 psych extends the break into intervention-risk territory; MOF headlines could reverse it sharply
Slip back below the 159.83 asian high turns the London push into a false break
Loss of ema20 at 159.773 and the higher-lows line puts the 159.48 asian low back in view
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 159.843
Asian range high broken at London open, higher-low chain intact.
After the firmer Japan PPI dip to 159.477, USD/JPY has printed higher lows. The London open pushed it through the Asian high at 159.834 to a session high at 159.874. Price holds above the ema20 at 159.757 with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR compressing to 8.6 pips. The prior high at 159.937 and the 160.00 psych level, where MOF intervention warnings are focused, sit just overhead.
Support: 159.834, 159.757, 159.637
Resistance: 159.874, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 159.834 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 159.637 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Rejection at the 159.874 session high or the 159.937 prior high caps the London push
160.00 psych: MOF intervention risk can trigger a sharp yen spike
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 59 · price 159.848
Asia higher-low chain pressing session high below 160.00.
USD/JPY has climbed from the 159.48 Asian low, set after the firmer Japan PPI and MOF warnings, in a chain of higher lows. Late in the Asia session and ahead of the London open, it is pressing the 159.87 session high, with the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych level, the market's intervention line, just above. Price holds above the rising ema20 at 159.75, and ATR(14) has compressed to 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.748, 159.64, 159.477
Resistance: 159.874, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.94 prior high puts the 160.00 psych level and intervention risk in play
Loss of the ema20 at 159.75 and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 159.64 swing low
Break below the 159.48 asian low invalidates the higher-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Recovering within Asian range, higher lows · RSI 59 · price 159.855
Higher lows off 159.48 Asia low, pressing session high.
Asia dipped to the 159.48 Asia low after the firm Japan PPI print and Mimura's 'too rapid' warning. Since then it has printed rising lows at 159.64 and 159.66 and is now pressing the 159.87 session high late in the Asia session, above both EMAs with the ema20 at 159.74. RSI(14) is at 59 and ATR(14) has eased to 8.9 pips from 10.1.
Support: 159.736, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.874, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.874 session high opens the 159.937 prior high, then 160.00 psych, the flagged intervention line
Failure to hold the 159.637 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 159.477 asia low
Loss of the ema20 at 159.736 would put the late-Asia push back inside the range
Any escalation in MoF rhetoric or rate-check reports could trigger an outsized yen move
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reset the read during NY hours
06:31 UTC
Sideways, higher lows within Asian range · RSI 53 · price 159.757
Asian range 159.48–159.83, higher lows capped at range top.
Asia session is building a 159.48–159.83 range after the strong Japan PPI print pushed the pair to the Asian low. Higher lows have formed since then, and the pop after Asada's dovish caution was rejected again at the 159.83 Asian high. Price sits above the ema20 at 159.72 and the ema50 at 159.68, with RSI at 53 and ATR compressing to 8.7 pips into the London open.
Support: 159.723, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
London open close above the 159.83 Asian high breaks the range and brings the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych level into view
MoF intervention rhetoric near the 160.00 psych level could trigger a fast yen reversal
Loss of the 159.64 swing low and the rising trendline from the Asian low reopens the 159.48 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sideways after Asian dip, pressing range top · RSI 58 · price 159.81
Asian range 159.48–159.83, higher lows, below 159.94 high.
The Japan PPI beat and MoF 'too rapid' jawboning knocked price off yesterday's 159.94 prior high to a 159.48 Asian low. Higher lows at 159.64 and 159.66 followed, and the last bar has pushed back to the 159.83 Asian high, above the ema20 at 159.72, ahead of London open. RSI(14) is 58 and ATR is 8.7 pips.
Support: 159.72, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 asian high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 159.94 prior high, then the 160.00 psych intervention line
Rejection at the asian high followed by a loss of the ema20 at 159.72 keeps the Asian range intact
Break of the 159.64 higher low and the higher-low line exposes the 159.48 asian low
Escalating MoF rhetoric or rate-check reports near 160.00 could trigger a sharp yen-led reversal
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC later in the day
06:01 UTC
Sideways after NY spike high, mild lower highs · RSI 48 · price 159.696
Compression inside the Asian range, lower highs since the Asian high.
Late Asia, ahead of the London open. USDJPY is compressing between 159.64 and 159.77, mid-way through the Asian range (159.477–159.834), after Mimura's 'too rapid' warning knocked it back from the NY prior high at 159.937. Price sits between the ema20 (159.709) and ema50 (159.669) under a line of lower highs, RSI is neutral at 47.8 and ATR has eased to 8.3 pips.
Support: 159.669, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.773, 159.834, 159.937
What it said to watch
A close below the 159.637 swing low, with the ema50 lost, exposes the 159.477 Asian low
A close above the 159.773 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 159.834 Asian high
A push back toward the 159.937 prior high puts the 160.00 intervention zone in play; any MoF escalation could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk
05:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting off Asia bounce · RSI 50 · price 159.695
Lower highs inside Asia range, swing low 159.64 holding.
Rollover gap and early-Asia dip to the 159.48 asia low followed Mimura's 'too rapid' warning, well off the 159.94 ny high. The rebound was rejected at the 159.83 asia high and has since printed lower highs. Late Asia, price sits between EMA20 159.712 and EMA50 159.669, and the 159.64 swing low is holding near the 50% of the asia bounce fib. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.773, 159.834, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.77 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 159.83 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 159.64 swing low exposes the 159.48 asia low and the 61.8% asia bounce fib
Any MoF escalation beyond 'too rapid' near the 160.00 area could trigger sharp yen-positive moves
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) could reset the London-NY range
London open in about 1–2h: a break of the Asian range in either direction would change this read
05:31 UTC
Consolidating below highs after the earlier rally · RSI 52 · price 159.718
Asian range 159.48–159.83, a higher swing low inside it.
Yesterday's London-NY rally ran from 158.82 to a prior high at 159.94. Asia then gapped lower at the daily open and slipped to 159.48 after Mimura's 'too rapid' warning, roughly a 41% retrace of the rally on the fib. Price now sits mid-range near 159.72 into the London open. It holds a higher swing low at 159.64 on a rising line from the asia low, sits above ema20 and ema50, and RSI(14) is flat at 52 while ATR(14) compresses to 8.4 pips.
Support: 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 asia high reopens the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych level
Failure to hold the 159.64 swing low breaks the rising line and exposes the 159.48 asia low
Any escalation in MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Sideways after Asia pullback from NY high · RSI 50 · price 159.709
Late-Asia range 159.64–159.83, lower highs since 02:15 UTC.
Asia session opened with a gap below the 159.80 NY close and slid to the 159.48 Asia low after Mimura's 'too rapid' warning. It then rebounded to the 159.83 Asia high, roughly a 50% retracement of the 159.24–159.94 NY rally. Late Asia is ranging under lower highs, with price a pip under ema20 (159.71), ema50 at 159.66 holding the 159.64 swing low, RSI flat at 49.5 and ATR at 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.664, 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.773, 159.834, 159.937
What it said to watch
Loss of the 159.64 swing low and ema50 exposes the 159.48 Asia low
M15 close above the 159.77 lower high and 159.83 Asia high breaks the late-Asia range, with the 159.94 NY high next
London open could set a new session range; ATR(14) at 8.6 pips frames expected bar size
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC; MoF rhetoric near 160.00 psych adds two-way risk
Asian range 159.48–159.83, higher lows against flattening highs.
After the NY rally stalled at the 159.937 NY high, short of 160.00 psych, the daily open gapped lower. Asia then dipped to the 159.477 asian low around the stronger Japan PPI before rebounding to the 159.834 asian high into Asada's speech. Since then price has held a higher-low chain, with the 159.637 swing low near the 61.8% of the Asia rebound, and the latest close is back above ema20 (159.711) and ema50 with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 159.637, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.637 swing low breaks the Asia higher lows and exposes the 159.477 asian low
Close above the 159.834 asian high reopens the 159.937 ny high and 160.00 psych, where Mimura/MoF intervention risk is live
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 159.477–159.834 with lower highs since 02:15 UTC.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried the pair through 159.00 during NY hours to a 159.937 prior high. In the Asia session the yen has stabilised after Mimura's 'too rapid' warning, holding price inside a 159.477 asian low to 159.834 asian high range. Rejection near the asian high has left a run of lower highs, and price is now below the ema20 at 159.707 and fractionally under the ema50, testing the 159.644 micro low near the 50% retracement of the Asia rebound, with RSI 44.9 and ATR 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.644, 159.613, 159.477
Resistance: 159.707, 159.834, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.644 micro low exposes the fib 61.8 at 159.613 and then the 159.477 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.707 and a break of the lower highs line would put the 159.834 asian high back in play
Close above the asian high reopens the 159.937 prior high, with intervention risk near 160.00
London open is due shortly and could break the Asian range either way
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker run from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 159.48–159.83, lower highs off the session high.
After the rollover gap down from Wednesday's 159.94 prior high, Asia has carved a 159.48–159.83 range. A run of lower highs off the asian high has price just under the ema20 at 159.71 but holding the ema50 at 159.66 and the 50% fib of the Asia rebound, with Mimura's 'too rapid' warning keeping the pair off 160.00. RSI 48.5 is neutral and ATR is 8.5 pips.
Support: 159.66, 159.644, 159.477
Resistance: 159.713, 159.834, 159.937
What it said to watch
Break below the 159.644 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 159.61 and the asian low at 159.48
Close above the lower highs line and the 159.834 asian high reopens the 159.94 prior high
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 159.71 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read; intervention risk near 160.00 remains live
04:16 UTC
Range after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 159.704
Asia range 159.48–159.83 with a lower high under the NY high.
Wednesday's NY rally on hot-CPI follow-through and 5% US yields topped at the 159.937 NY high, short of 160.00. Asia gapped lower at rollover and dipped to a 159.477 Asia low, near the 38.2% of the rally fib, before a lower high at the 159.834 Asia high. Late in the Asia session, before London open, price sits mid-range at 159.70, just under the ema20 and above the ema50, with RSI(14) at 49.4 and ATR easing to 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.658, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 at 159.658 puts the 159.477 Asia low and the 38.2% rally fib back in play
Break of the 159.477 Asia low would confirm a lower-low and end the Asia range read
Close above the 159.834 Asia high reopens the 159.937 NY high and the 160.00 psych/intervention line
MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could trigger sharp two-way moves
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 159.48–159.83, lower highs since 02:15 UTC.
Yesterday's CPI-driven dollar rally ran to a 159.94 prior high during NY hours. Price gapped lower at the rollover, and the Asia session dipped to a 159.48 asia low before buyers lifted it back to the 159.83 asia high. Late in Asia, price is printing lower highs and drifting back toward the ema20 at 159.72, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.5 and ATR(14) easing from 10.1 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 159.716, 159.656, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 at 159.66, also the 50% fib of the Asian rebound, exposes the 159.48 asia low
Break of the 159.83 asia high reopens the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych line, where MoF intervention risk is flagged
London open break of the Asian range would end the range read
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu 13:30 UTC onward could materially shift this read
Lower high at 159.83 within a 159.48–159.94 range, higher lows since Asia low.
The post-CPI rally stalled at the 159.94 prior high during NY hours, short of the 160.00 psych/intervention line as Mimura's 'too rapid' warning raised the jawboning temperature. Asia dipped to a 159.48 asia low, then rebounded on higher lows. The bounce was rejected at the 159.83 asia high, a lower high near the 78.6% pullback fib. Price now sits on the ema20 at 159.71 with the ema50 at 159.65 below, RSI(14) neutral at 50.9 and ATR(14) expanded to 9.3 pips.
Support: 159.714, 159.653, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.83 asia high reopens the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych line
Break of the Asia higher-lows line and the ema50 at 159.65 exposes the 159.48 asia low
Escalating MoF/Mimura rhetoric near 160.00 could abruptly reverse the read
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu 13:30 UTC onward could shift yields and this structure
03:31 UTC
Recovering within Asia session range, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 159.73
Higher low off the 159.48 Asia low; recovery capped below the 159.94 prior high.
Asia opened on a roughly 9-pip gap lower beneath the 159.94 prior high from the US session rally. Price sold to the 159.48 Asia low, where a double bottom held, then recovered to a 159.83 session high as the yen steadied on MoF jawboning. Price is now easing back toward the ema20 at 159.71, with ATR(14) expanded to 9.6 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 52.9.
Support: 159.713, 159.65, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 159.65 ema50 and the rising lows line exposes the 159.48 Asia low
A close above the 159.83 session high reopens the 159.94 prior high and the 160.00 psych handle
Any MoF/Mimura escalation or rate-check reports near 160.00 could materially shift this read
US jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate on Thu (13:30 UTC onward) are the next US-yield catalyst
03:16 UTC
Asia rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 159.766
Higher lows off 159.477, capped at 159.834.
After the rollover gap lower, Asia dipped to a 159.477 session low on the stronger Japan PPI. The Asia rebound that followed Asada's cautious remarks built higher lows back above ema20 and ema50, but supply has capped twice at the 159.834 asia high. RSI(14) sits at a neutral 53.6 and ATR(14) has expanded to 9.7 pips from 5.4.
Support: 159.709, 159.646, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.834 asia high reopens the 159.937 prior high and the 160.00 psych / MoF intervention line
Break of the higher lows trendline and ema20 at 159.709 exposes ema50 at 159.646 and the 61.8% of the Asia rebound near 159.613
Loss of the 159.477 session low turns Asia into a lower-low sequence
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers (Hammack, Daly, Williams) could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in Asia · RSI 58 · price 159.824
V-rebound from 159.48 Asian low back to the session high.
The rollover gap lower and early Asia selling bottomed at the 159.48 Asian low. Price has since printed higher lows along a rising trendline and is retesting the 159.83 session high, back above the ema20 with RSI(14) at 57.8. The prior high at 159.94 from yesterday's NY rally caps the next leg, and ATR has expanded to 9.9 pips from about 5 overnight.
Support: 159.705, 159.688, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.94 prior high puts the 160.00 psych level in play, the MoF intervention line
Repeated failure at the 159.83 session high keeps the recovery inside the Asian range
Break of the 159.69 swing low and ema20 at 159.705 snaps the Asia trendline
Loss of the 159.48 Asian low turns intraday structure to lower lows
Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Williams 23:30) could materially shift USD yields and this read
Asian range 159.48–159.83 below prior high 159.94; higher low above EMAs.
The yield-driven London-NY rally topped at the 159.937 prior high, and the Asia session opened on a small gap lower. The pullback held the 159.477 Asian low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the rally fib, as MoF jawboning drew little reaction. Price has recovered above the ema20 (159.694) and ema50 (159.635), but remains capped below the 159.834 Asian high, with ATR(14) expanding to 10 pips.
Support: 159.69, 159.635, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.834 asian high reopens the 159.937 prior high and the 160.00 psych handle
Escalating MoF intervention rhetoric near 160.00 would change the read
Break of the asian hl line and the ema50 at 159.635 would put the 159.477 asian low back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from Asia dip · RSI 54 · price 159.746
Asia higher lows off 159.48, capped below prior NY range.
After the gap lower at the daily rollover, Asia double-bottomed at 159.50 and the 159.48 asian low. Price rebounded back above ema20 159.69 and ema50 159.63, but met rejection at the 159.83 asian high, just under the prior NY session high of 159.94. ATR has expanded from 5 to 10.1 pips through Asian hours, with Mimura's 'too rapid' warning keeping the 160.00 intervention line in focus.
Support: 159.686, 159.477
Resistance: 159.834, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 159.83 asian high retests the 159.94 session high, with the 160.00 intervention line beyond
Loss of ema20 and the Asia rising lows trendline near 159.59 reopens the 159.48 asian low
Escalation in MoF rhetoric beyond 'too rapid' near 160.00 could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the NY session could change this read
After the rollover gap and a hot Japan PPI print, Asia dipped to a double bottom at 159.48–159.50. Rising lows since have lifted price back above the ema20 and ema50 and through the 61.8% of the pullback fib, with ATR(14) expanding to 10.1 pips. Price is now testing the 159.80 gap fill, with the NY high at 159.937 and the 160.00 psych intervention line above.
Support: 159.625, 159.477
Resistance: 159.803, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.80 gap fill exposes the NY high at 159.937
Approach to 160.00 psych keeps MoF/Mimura escalation beyond 'too rapid' a live risk for a sharp reversal
Break of the rising lows trendline and a close back below the ema50 at 159.625 weakens the recovery
Loss of the 159.477 asian low breaks the double bottom
02:01 UTC
Pullback inside NY rally, ranging in Asia · RSI 49 · price 159.677
Asia range 159.48–159.77 with lower highs, below NY high.
The NY-session rally on hot US CPI topped at the 159.937 ny high, short of 160.00. A rollover gap and Mimura's 'too rapid' warning then pushed Asia into a 159.48–159.77 range with lower highs. Mid-Tokyo, price sits just under the falling ema20 (159.669) and above a flat ema50 (159.618), with RSI(14) neutral at 48.9 and ATR expanding to 9.8 pips.
Support: 159.618, 159.477
Resistance: 159.771, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 159.477 asian low extends the pullback toward the 50% retracement of the rally near 159.44
A close above the 159.771 asian high breaks the lower highs and reopens the 159.937 ny high
Failure to hold the ema50 at 159.618 puts the asian low back in focus
160.00 psych is the flagged intervention line; MoF escalation beyond 'too rapid' could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Pullback from NY high, lower highs in Asia · RSI 45 · price 159.628
Lower highs off 159.94; Asia trading a 159.48–159.77 range.
Asia is pulling back from the 159.94 NY high, which capped the post-CPI run. The hot Japan PPI print and Mimura's 'too rapid' warning came alongside a dip to the 159.48 Asia low, near the rally fib 38.2%. Price sits below a falling ema20 (159.67) with a lower high at 159.73, RSI(14) at 44.6 and ATR expanding to 9.9 pips.
Support: 159.56, 159.48
Resistance: 159.67, 159.73, 159.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.73 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 159.94 NY high
Loss of the 159.56 swing low puts the 159.48 Asia low and the rally fib 38.2% back in play
Close below the 159.48 Asia low confirms a lower-low and a deeper retracement of the rally
MoF escalation beyond 'too rapid' near the 160.00 intervention line could materially shift this read; US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC
After the CPI-driven grind to a 159.937 NY high, USDJPY gapped lower at the rollover and slid in early Asia on Mimura's 'too rapid' warning. The 159.477 asia low swept the 159.496 low and held just above the 38.2% of the rally fib. Price now sits between the falling ema20 at 159.677 and the flat ema50 at 159.617, with RSI(14) at 47.1 and ATR(14) up to 9.5 pips from about 5.
Support: 159.617, 159.477
Resistance: 159.677, 159.771, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 and the lower highs line opens a retest of the 159.771 asia high
Failure to hold the 159.477 asia low exposes a deeper retracement of the rally fib
Escalation in MoF/Mimura language beyond 'too rapid' could trigger a fast break well below this range
Reclaim of the 159.937 ny high brings 160.00, the intervention line, back into view
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pulling back from 159.94 · RSI 36 · price 159.534
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session, below both EMAs.
After Wednesday's CPI-driven rally stalled at the 159.937 day high, USDJPY gapped lower at the daily open. It extended down in early Asia after Japan PPI beat at 7.1% vs 6.5%, printing lower lows to the 159.477 asia low near the 38.2% retrace of the rally. Price sits below the ema20 (159.68) and ema50 (159.616), RSI(14) is at 35.6 and ATR has widened to 9.1 pips from about 5.
Support: 159.477, 159.00
Resistance: 159.616, 159.68, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 159.616 and the ema20 at 159.68, through the lower highs line, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 159.477 asia low exposes the broken res at 159.00 from Wednesday's breakout
A recovery toward the 159.937 day high brings the 160.00 intervention zone back into focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate later today could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Pullback from day high, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 159.638
Lower highs since 159.937; Asia holding above 159.496.
The London-NY rally from 158.707 stalled at the 159.937 day high. Asia opened with a gap below the late-NY plateau, and the hot Japan PPI print (7.1% vs 6.5% YoY) drove a flush to the 159.496 asia low, near the 38.2% fib of the rally. Price closed below both the ema20 (159.698) and the ema50 (159.621), with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR expanding to 8.5 pips off the swing low at 159.559.
Support: 159.559, 159.496
Resistance: 159.698, 159.771, 159.937
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 159.496 asia low exposes the 38.2% fib near 159.47
Close back above the 159.771 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 159.698 would ease the pullback read
160.00 is the MOF intervention zone; any verbal warnings could trigger a sharp yen snapback
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Pullback from NY high, short-term lower lows · RSI 44 · price 159.649
Descending highs off 159.937, testing ema50 after rollover gap.
USD/JPY is drifting off the 159.937 NY high, which capped the US CPI-driven run from 158.707. The rollover gap down from 159.80 led into early Asia, where the hotter Japan PPI print swept 159.559 to an asia low of 159.496. Price recovered to the ema50 at 159.622 and sits there, below the ema20 at 159.711, as ATR expands to 8.4 pips and the asia low holds just above the 38.2% fib.
Support: 159.622, 159.496
Resistance: 159.711, 159.803, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.496 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 38.2% fib near 159.47
Recovery above the ema20 at 159.711 and a gap fill at 159.803 would break the descending highs and reopen the 159.937 NY high
160.00 is the flagged MOF intervention zone; Thursday's US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak later in the day could shift this read
00:31 UTC
Pullback from 159.94 high, below both EMAs · RSI 39 · price 159.609
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia after rollover gap.
The Asia session opened with a rollover gap below the NY range (159.81 up to the prior high at 159.94), and the hotter-than-forecast Japan PPI print extended the slide to a 159.50 session low, near the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's rally. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR(14) expanding from 4.9 to 8.4 pips, and the ema50 at 159.62 is capping the bounce.
Support: 159.50, 159.00
Resistance: 159.622, 159.77, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.50 session low opens the path toward the 159.00 range top
Reclaim of the 159.77 asia high and the ema20 near 159.72 negates the Asia lower-high sequence
Intervention risk near 160.00 limits any retest of the 159.94 prior high
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Pullback within broader rally, lower highs in Asia · RSI 40 · price 159.60
Late-NY range broken lower, LH/LL sequence off 159.937.
Price slipped out of the late-NY 159.81–159.90 range after the rollover gap. The hotter Japan PPI (7.1% vs 6.5% f/c) then extended the early Asia session drop to a 159.496 asia low, with the bar closing back below the ema50 at 159.623 and the EMA20 at 159.732. Asia is printing lower highs under the 159.937 ny high, RSI(14) sits at 39.6 and ATR(14) has expanded to 8.2 pips.
Support: 159.496, 159.345
Resistance: 159.623, 159.771, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.771 lower high and the EMA20 would break the lower-high sequence
Hold below the ema50 at 159.623 keeps the Asia range capped
Failure to hold the 159.496 asia low opens the 159.345 breakout leg and the 50% rally fib near 159.44
Approach toward 160.00 keeps Japanese intervention rhetoric in focus
US Jobless Claims and Fedspeak from Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend paused, pulling back in early Asia · RSI 51 · price 159.698
Lower highs from 159.94 session high; dip to 159.56 held above ema50.
The post-CPI rally from 158.71 topped at the 159.94 session high in NY. A rollover gap and early-Asia dip then hit a 159.56 swing low, where buyers stepped in above the ema50 at 159.62. Price is now pinned just under the ema20 at 159.75 and the lower-highs line from the top, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.7 and ATR at 6.7 pips.
Support: 159.624, 159.559, 159.467
Resistance: 159.747, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line and ema20 near 159.75 reopens the 159.94 session high and 160.00 psych/intervention line
Failure to hold the 159.56 swing low exposes the 38.2% rally fib at 159.47
Japan PPI (due 23:50 UTC, still awaiting) or any MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could shift this read
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate later Thursday are the next USD catalysts