Asian range broken higher; late-NY range floor lost at rollover.
USD/JPY cleared the 158.66–158.96 Asian range in London and extended through NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, topping at the 159.937 day high. The rollover gap broke the late-NY 159.80–159.90 range floor, and the drop met demand at a 159.56 swing low. Price now sits between ema50 (159.62) and ema20 (159.75), RSI(14) 45.9 after dipping to 33.8, ATR 6.6 pips.
Support: 159.619, 159.559
Resistance: 159.747, 159.80, 159.937
What it said to watch
Close back above the 159.80 range floor restores the late-NY range and leaves the dip as a rollover false break
Close below the 159.56 swing low, with ema50 lost, marks the first lower low of the session
Retest of the 159.937 day high puts 160.00, the flagged intervention line, in play
Japan Oct PPI early in the Asia session, then US PPI Fri, could shift this read
Rollover gap lower from late-NY consolidation; dip to 159.56 rebounding between ema50 and ema20.
The post-CPI USD bid carried the NY session through 159.00 to a 159.94 session high, just shy of the 160.00 intervention line. Late NY then held a 159.80–159.90 consolidation. A rollover gap lower and an early-Asia dip to the 159.56 swing low are bouncing back above the ema50 at 159.62. Price sits under the ema20 at 159.75, with RSI(14) recovering to 46 from 34 and ATR widening to 6.9 pips.
Support: 159.616, 159.559
Resistance: 159.753, 159.80, 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.80 gap level reopens the 159.94 session high and 160.00
Failure to hold the 159.56 swing low and ema50 extends the pullback toward the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally near 159.47
Japan October PPI (Thu) and any MoF rhetoric near 160.00 could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Pullback within NY rally, lower highs since rollover · RSI 34 · price 159.599
159.80–159.94 range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain.
The hot-CPI dollar bid carried NY through the Asian range high to a 159.94 high. The rally then stalled in a 159.80–159.94 range, and the range floor gave way after a thin rollover gap. Lower highs at 159.79 and 159.73 have since printed into a 159.57 session low, with price just under the ema50 and the 38.2% fib, RSI(14) 33.8 and ATR(14) widening to 6.3 pips.
Support: 159.573, 159.516
Resistance: 159.728, 159.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 159.73 lower high and the 159.80 range floor invalidates the pullback read
Failure to hold the 159.57 session low exposes the 50% fib at 159.52, also the NY pullback low
Japan October PPI (Thu) and any MoF rhetoric with 160.00 intervention line about 40 pips above
Thin liquidity before the Asia session can exaggerate moves around the ema50
23:01 UTC
Uptrend pausing, early Asia pullback · RSI 42 · price 159.657
Late-NY range broken lower at Asia open, testing swing low.
The CPI-driven dollar bid carried a NY session leg from 159.09 to a 159.94 session high, stalling short of the 160.00 intervention line. The late-NY 159.80–159.90 range low gave way on the Asia session open, and price is now below the ema20 and pressing the 159.65 swing low. RSI has cooled from 73 to 42 and ATR has compressed to 5.6 pips, with the ema50 and 38.2% fib clustered at 159.61 below.
Support: 159.648, 159.614, 159.516
Resistance: 159.777, 159.80, 159.937
What it said to watch
Close below the 159.61 ema50 / 38.2% fib exposes the 50% fib at 159.52
Reclaim of the 159.80 range low and the ema20 at 159.78 puts the 159.94 session high back in focus
160.00 remains the intervention line; MoF rhetoric or Japan October PPI (Thu) could trigger an outsized yen move
Post-rally range broken lower at rollover, testing swing low.
London broke above the 158.66–158.96 Asian range and NY extended the rally to a 159.937 session high on the post-CPI dollar bid, followed by six hours of consolidation at 159.80–159.90. The rollover gap broke the range floor. Price is testing the 159.66 swing low below the ema20, with the ema50 at 159.61 underneath and RSI(14) cooled to 40 from 73.
Support: 159.66, 159.611, 159.52
Resistance: 159.80, 159.937
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 159.66 swing low exposes the ema50 at 159.61 and the 159.52 pullback low
M15 close back above the 159.80 range floor negates the range break
Session high 159.937 and the 160 line, the flagged MOF intervention level, cap the rally
Thin rollover and early Asia liquidity, ATR 5.6 pips and compressing
Japan PPI Thu, then US jobless claims and Fed speakers from 13:30 UTC Thu, could shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation below 160.00, rollover gap under ema20.
USD/JPY broke above the 158.66–158.96 Asian range during London and extended through NY to a 159.94 session high, driven by hot US CPI and Fed-hike repricing. It then stalled in a 159.80–159.90 band below the 160.00 intervention line. The rollover gap took price under ema20 to the 159.71 gap low; RSI(14) has cooled from 73 to 49 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.4 pips.
Support: 159.711, 159.659, 159.609
Resistance: 159.798, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 159.80 restores the consolidation read and puts the 159.94 session high back in focus
Failure to hold the 159.66 swing low exposes ema50 at 159.61 and the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg near 159.56
160.00 intervention line: MOF rhetoric on any approach could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
Japan Oct PPI due Thursday could jolt the yen during the Asia session
Post-NY consolidation 159.80–159.94, rollover gap below range low.
Post-CPI dollar demand lifted USDJPY out of the Asian range (158.66–158.96) through London and NY to a 159.937 session high, followed by a tight 159.80–159.94 consolidation in late NY. The daily rollover bar gapped below the range low to 159.72 on thin liquidity, putting price under ema20 (159.803) with RSI(14) at 43.8 and ATR compressed to 5.2 pips.
Support: 159.65, 159.603, 159.52
Resistance: 159.80, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
Asia session failing to reclaim the 159.80 range low keeps the rollover gap open and the consolidation broken to the downside
Loss of the 159.65 swing low exposes ema50 at 159.603, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, then the 159.52 fib 50%
A retest of the 159.937 session high brings 160.00 into view, the MOF intervention line where verbal warnings or action could reverse price sharply
Japan PPI and Thursday's US jobless claims plus Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation, lower highs into range floor.
London broke the 158.66–158.96 Asian range and NY extended the hot-CPI dollar bid to a 159.937 session high. Since then price has compressed into a 159.80–159.94 box with lower highs. RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 55.4 and ATR has shrunk to 4.9 pips; the late-NY close is pressing the range floor just under ema20 (159.811).
Support: 159.80, 159.745, 159.598
Resistance: 159.898, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.80 range floor exposes the 159.745 swing low, then ema50 at 159.598
Close above the 159.898 lower high and 159.937 session high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 160 psych intervention level into play
MOF rhetoric as price nears 160.00 could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
Japan PPI Thursday and the Thursday Fed-speak slate could shift this read
Tight consolidation below session high after NY breakout.
London broke the Asian range high and NY extended the hot-CPI dollar bid to a 159.937 session high. Price has since been boxed between a 159.81 range low and a 159.90 range top. RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 57.6 and ATR has compressed to 5.1 pips, with price now pressing the range low just above ema20 (159.812).
Support: 159.81, 159.745, 159.615
Resistance: 159.90, 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low exposes the 159.745 swing low, then the fib 38.2 retracement near 159.615
Break of the 159.937 session high and range top puts psych 160.00 in play, the flagged MOF intervention line
Japan PPI Thursday, then US jobless claims and Fed speakers from 13:30 UTC Thu, could shift this read
USDJPY left the 158.66–158.96 Asian range in London and extended through the NY session on the post-CPI dollar bid to a 159.937 session high, with RSI(14) cooling from 82.7 to 60.5. Since late NY price has compressed in a 159.81–159.94 range, its range low sitting on the 159.812 EMA20, with ATR(14) contracting to 5.4 pips just under the 160.00 psych line.
Support: 159.809, 159.745, 159.58
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.937 session high puts the 160.00 psych line in play, flagged as the MOF intervention threshold
Close below the 159.81 range low breaks the consolidation, with the 159.745 swing low next
Below 159.745, the ny rally fib 38.2% near 159.65 and the ema50 at 159.58 come into view
Thursday's Fed speaker slate and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.96 and the NY rally, fuelled by hawkish Fed talk and wide US-Japan yield gaps after the hot CPI, ran to a 159.937 session high. Since then price has held a 15-pip box between the 159.787 range low and the high, sitting just above ema20 at 159.81 with ema50 at 159.57. RSI(14) has cooled from above 80 to 64.6 and ATR has compressed from 8.6 to 5.4 pips.
Support: 159.81, 159.787, 159.66
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 159.937 session high puts the 160 psych/MOF intervention line in play, where snap-back risk rises sharply
M15 close below the 159.787 range low, after a break of ema20, exposes the 159.66 pullback low and the 38.2% of the NY rally near 159.62
Japan Oct PPI in the coming Asia session and Thursday's US claims/Fed-speak slate could break the consolidation
Any MOF verbal warning as price nears 160.00 could trigger a fast yen rebound
Hot US CPI and hawkish Fed talk carried USD/JPY out of the Asian range, through 159.00 in London and up to a 159.937 session high during NY hours. Since then price has compressed in a 13-pip band above the 159.81 range low, with ema20 at 159.805 just beneath it. RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 64.3, ATR has eased to 5.4 pips, and the 160.00 intervention line sits about 15 pips overhead.
Support: 159.809, 159.805, 159.745
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low and ema20 exposes the 159.745 swing low
Break of the 159.937 session high brings the 160.00 intervention line and MOF rhetoric risk into play
Japan Oct PPI in the coming Asia session, then Thursday Fed speakers and jobless claims, could break the consolidation
Deeper pullback would bring the 38.2% retracement of the rally, near 159.56, into view
London broke above the 158.66–158.96 Asian range and NY extended the post-CPI dollar rally to a 159.937 session high, about 6 pips below the 160.00 intervention line flagged in the yen news. Since 17:00 UTC price has held in a 159.81–159.94 band, at or just above the ema20 at 159.80. RSI(14) has cooled to 62 from above 80 and ATR has compressed to 5.6 pips.
Support: 159.809, 159.745, 159.659
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low and ema20 breaks the consolidation, exposing the 159.745 pullback low and then the 159.66 swing low
Break of the 159.937 session high brings the 160.00 intervention line into play, where MOF rhetoric or action could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
Japan PPI in the coming Asia session could move this pair out of the current range
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling into late NY · RSI 67 · price 159.848
London broke the Asian range top near 158.96, and NY extended the post-CPI rally to a 159.937 session high. Since then price has compressed in a 159.81–159.94 band, holding above the ema20 at 159.796. RSI(14) has cooled from 80+ to 67.3 and ATR has slipped to 5.7 pips, with the rally fib's shallow levels untested.
Support: 159.81, 159.796, 159.745
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low exposes the ema20 at 159.796 and the 159.745 swing low
Clearing the 159.937 session high puts psych 160 in play, the flagged intervention line
Any MoF/BoJ verbal escalation near 160 could abruptly reverse the rally
Japan PPI, US jobless claims and Thursday's Fed-speak slate could shift this read through the next sessions
Post-breakout consolidation 159.81–159.94 under 160.00.
London cleared the Asian range high and 159.00, and NY extended the breakout leg to a 159.937 session high, carried by the post-CPI USD bid and 5% UST yields. Late NY is coiling in a 159.81–159.94 range just under the 160.00 psych line. RSI(14) has cooled from 82.7 to 67.3 and ATR has compressed to 6 pips, with price holding above the rising ema20 at 159.789.
Support: 159.81, 159.789, 159.66
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low and ema20 at 159.789 exposes the 159.66 swing low and the 38.2% of the breakout leg near 159.45
Break of the 159.937 session high puts 160.00 psych in play, where MoF/BoJ intervention risk is flagged
Any official verbal escalation on the yen could snap the breakout leg lower
Japan PPI Thu and US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
The post-CPI dollar bid and 5% UST yields drove a London-NY leg from 158.82 through the 159.00 breakout to a 159.937 session high. Since then price has held a tight 159.81 range low to 159.94 band just under the 160 psych/intervention line, above a rising ema20 at 159.78. RSI has cooled from 82.7 to 67 and ATR has compressed to 6.3 pips. The 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg sits near 159.51.
Support: 159.81, 159.782, 159.745
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low ends the consolidation and exposes the ema20 at 159.78 and the 159.745 swing low
Break above the 159.937 session high puts the 160 psych/intervention line in play
Any MoF/BoJ verbal escalation near 160.00 could snap this read lower
Japan PPI and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
Tight range under session high after London-NY breakout.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range high near 158.96 in London and pushed through 159.00 on the post-CPI yield gap, with the London rally topping at the 159.937 session high in NY. Late NY it is holding a 159.81–159.94 range just beneath the 160.00 psych/intervention line. RSI(14) has cooled from 87 to 66, ATR(14) has compressed to 6.4 pips, and price sits above a rising ema20 at 159.773.
Support: 159.809, 159.773, 159.745
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.937 session high puts the psych 160 intervention line directly in play
Break of the 159.81 range low and ema20 at 159.773 exposes the 159.745 swing low and a deeper retracement of the London rally
Any MoF/BoJ verbal escalation near 160.00 could abruptly reverse this read
Thu Japan PPI and 13:30 UTC US jobless claims, plus Fed speakers, could break the current range
Tight consolidation under session high after NY rally.
London cleared the Asian range top and 159.00, and the NY rally ran to a 159.937 session high on the post-CPI yield gap. Price has since held a 159.81–159.94 consolidation above the ema20 at 159.765, with RSI(14) easing from the 80s to 65.3 and ATR(14) compressing to 6.7 pips.
Support: 159.809, 159.765, 159.516
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.809 range low exposes the ema20 at 159.765, then the 159.516 ny pivot near the 50% of the NY rally
Close above the 159.937 session high puts the 160 line, flagged as the intervention threshold, directly in play
Any MoF/BoJ verbal escalation near 160.00 could break the consolidation sharply lower
Tight consolidation below session high after London-NY breakout.
London broke above the Asian range (158.66–158.96), and NY extended the run to a 159.937 session high as the US CPI beat and 5% UST yields widened the rate gap. Late in the NY session, price is compressing in a 159.81–159.94 range above the ema20 and below the 160.00 intervention line (psych 160). RSI(14) has cooled to 73 from 87 and ATR has eased to 6.6 pips.
Support: 159.81, 159.758, 159.659
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low and the ema20 at 159.76 exposes the 159.66 swing low
Clearance of the 159.937 session high brings psych 160 into play, where MoF/BoJ verbal escalation could reverse price sharply
A deeper pullback would test the 38.2–50% retracement of the London-NY rally at 159.51–159.38
Japan October PPI on Thursday is the next scheduled yen catalyst
USDJPY broke out of the Asian range (158.66–158.96) in London and accelerated in the first hour of NY on the CPI-driven yield gap, printing a session high at 159.937. Late NY has held a 159.81–159.94 range above the ema20, and RSI(14) has cooled to 72.3 from 87. The session high came with a lower RSI peak, a bearish divergence, while ATR compresses toward 6.8 pips.
Support: 159.81, 159.744
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.81 range low exposes the ema20 at 159.744
Close above the 159.937 session high brings the 160 line into play, where intervention risk is flagged
Fib 38.2% of the London-NY leg near 159.56 is the deeper reference if the range low gives way
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Japan PPI Thu could shift this read
Late-NY consolidation below session high after Asian range breakout.
USD/JPY broke above the Asian range (158.66–158.96) in London and extended through NY to a session high at 159.937 on hot-CPI Fed-hike pricing. Late NY is compressing between the 159.745 range low and the high. RSI(14) has cooled to 71.5 from 87, with a bearish divergence on the final push, and ATR has eased to 7.1 pips.
Support: 159.745, 159.648
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.937 session high puts psych 160 in play, with MOF intervention rhetoric the main risk there
M15 close below the 159.745 range low ends the consolidation and exposes the 159.648 swing low near the NY leg fib 23.6%
Japan PPI in the Asia session Thursday could shift this read
Tight consolidation below session high after NY breakout leg.
The post-CPI dollar bid broke the Asian range high at 158.96 in London, and the NY breakout leg ran to a 159.937 session high. Late NY is now holding a 159.81–159.94 range above the ema20 at 159.717. RSI(14) has eased from 87 to 71, the higher high printed on a lower RSI reading, and ATR is compressing to 7.5 pips.
Support: 159.809, 159.745, 159.717
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.745 swing low breaks the consolidation and exposes the ema20 at 159.717
Close above the 159.937 session high puts psych 160 in play, the level the digest flags as the intervention line
Any MOF verbal intervention near 160 could reverse the breakout leg sharply
Japan PPI and US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
London broke the Asian range high at 158.956 and NY extended to a 159.937 session high on Fed hike bets after the hot US CPI. After London close price has flattened into a 159.75–159.94 band just under the psych 160 intervention line, with a micro low at 159.82. RSI(14) has cooled to 71.5 from 87.3 and made a lower high on the 159.937 print, a bearish divergence, while ATR eases to 7.6 pips.
Support: 159.82, 159.745, 159.703
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.937 session high puts psych 160 in play, where MOF intervention rhetoric risk rises
Loss of the 159.82 micro low and then the 159.745 swing low ends the consolidation read and exposes ema20 at 159.703
A close below ema20 opens a deeper retrace of the London-NY rally fib, 38.2% near 159.51
Japan PPI in the Asia session could jolt yen pricing near the 160 line
HH/HL chain since the 159.00 break, pausing under the 159.937 session high.
Post-CPI USD demand carried the pair out of the 158.66–158.96 Asian range and through 159.00 in London. NY extended the leg to a session high at 159.937, but RSI(14) printed a lower peak there (82.7 vs 87.3 on the 159.764 high), a bearish divergence, and has cooled to 70.3. The pullback is holding above the 159.745 swing low, the 23.6% fib of the 159.09–159.94 rally, with ema20 at 159.67 below and the 160.00 psych intervention line overhead.
Support: 159.745, 159.67
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
A break below the 159.745 swing low exposes ema20 at 159.67 and the 38.2% fib of the 159.09–159.94 rally near 159.61
An M15 close above the 159.937 session high puts the 160.00 psych line in play, where MOF intervention rhetoric risk rises
Japan PPI in the coming Asia session and US claims plus Fed speakers on Thursday could shift the rate-differential read
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, overbought and stretched near 160 · RSI 77 · price 159.884
HH/HL chain after London break of the Asian range, NY extension.
Hot US CPI and Fed hike bets carried USDJPY out of the 158.66–158.96 Asian range during London. NY extended the London rally to a fresh session high at 159.937 after London close, just shy of the 160.00 psych/intervention line. RSI(14) at 76.9 is overbought but printed lower on that high than its 87.3 peak at 159.76, a mild bearish divergence, while the higher low at 159.787 and the 159.745 swing low still hold above the ema20 at 159.653.
Support: 159.787, 159.745, 159.653
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.937 session high brings the psych 160 level and MOF intervention risk into play
A break below the 159.787 higher low and 159.745 swing low ends the HH/HL chain and the rising lows trendline
A pullback to the ema20 near 159.653 would mark a deeper retracement within the London rally fib (38.2% ~159.49)
Thursday's US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London breakout of 159.00, pressing 160.00.
The breakout leg that cleared the Asian range high near 158.96 and the 159.00 handle after London open ran through NY hours, extending the post-CPI USD bid to a session high at 159.937 just below the 160.00 psych and intervention line. Higher lows at 159.745 and 159.787 keep the micro uptrend intact. RSI(14) at 82.7 is overbought and below its 87.3 peak on the 159.764 high, a mild bearish divergence into the top.
Support: 159.787, 159.745, 159.629
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.787 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 159.745 higher low exposes ema20 at 159.629
160.00 psych is the flagged MOF intervention line; rejection or verbal pushback there could trigger a fast reversal
Thursday's claims and Fed slate on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 81 · price 159.873
HH/HL chain since NY open; tight rising-lows coil beneath 159.892.
London cleared the 158.66–158.96 Asian range. The first hour of NY then broke the 159.10–159.20 shelf on the post-CPI USD bid, a 70-pip NY leg to a 159.892 session high. Rising lows at the 159.659 pullback low and the 159.745 swing low now coil price under that high. RSI(14) 80.7 is overbought and diverging bearishly from its 87.3 peak; price holds well above ema20 at 159.598, ATR 8.3 pips.
Support: 159.745, 159.659, 159.598
Resistance: 159.892, 160.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 159.892 session high brings the 160.00 intervention line into play, where MOF rhetoric risk rises sharply
Break of the rising lows and the 159.745 swing low exposes the 159.659 pullback low, then ema20 at 159.598 near the 38.2% of the NY leg
No scheduled US data before Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims; Japan PPI Thu is the next yen-side catalyst
HH/HL chain from London breakout; tight shelf below the session high.
USD/JPY broke the Asian range high near 158.96 in London and extended through NY to a session high at 159.892, with the post-CPI Fed hike repricing keeping the dollar bid. RSI(14) at 80.2 is overbought and showing a bearish divergence against the 87.3 peak. After London close, price is holding a tight shelf above the 159.745 pullback low on rising lows, well clear of the ema20 at 159.571.
Support: 159.745, 159.648, 159.571
Resistance: 159.892
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 159.745 pullback low breaks the rising lows line; the 159.648 swing low then marks the last higher low of the NY leg
ema20 at 159.571 sits just above the 38.2% of the NY leg fib (~159.61), the first deeper pullback zone if 159.648 gives way
Close above the 159.892 session high brings psych 160 into play, the level where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Bearish RSI divergence stays active unless a new high comes with RSI back above 87; ATR at 8.5 pips is expanding from 6.2
US jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak Thu, then US PPI Fri, could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, overbought and extended · RSI 80 · price 159.853
Higher highs and higher lows since the London break of the Asian range.
London broke the Asian range high at 158.96, and the NY leg carried price to a 159.892 session high as hot US CPI and Fed hike pricing kept the dollar bid. RSI(14) at 80.4 is overbought, and that high printed on a lower RSI than the 87.3 peak. The 159.745 pullback low and the 159.659 swing low keep the higher-low chain intact into the London close, with ATR expanding to 8.6 pips.
Support: 159.745, 159.659, 159.542
Resistance: 159.892
What it said to watch
A close below the 159.659 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema20 at 159.542
A push through the 159.892 session high toward the 160 psych/intervention line raises the risk of MOF verbal escalation
Japan PPI due Thu could jolt JPY during the Asia session
HH/HL chain since NY open; Asian range high broken.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range high near 158.96 in London and accelerated through the NY open as post-CPI Fed-hike repricing kept the yield-gap pull on the yen, printing a session high at 159.89. RSI(14) at 79.6 is overbought and has not confirmed the new high against its 87.3 peak. The first pullback held at 159.75 late in the London-NY overlap.
Support: 159.745, 159.659, 159.51
Resistance: 159.892, 160.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 159.66 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes ema20 at 159.51, near the 50% of the ny leg fib
A break of the 159.89 session high puts the 160.00 psych/intervention line in play, where MOF rhetoric risk rises
Any verbal intervention from Japan's MOF near 160.00 could reverse the move sharply
Japan PPI on Thursday is the next scheduled yen-side catalyst
HH/HL chain from Asian low; NY leg printing new session highs.
London cleared the Asian range high and the 159 breakout level. The NY open then accelerated the move to a session high at 159.892, with the post-CPI Fed hike bets and wide yield gap still driving USD. RSI(14) at 81.6 is overbought and made a lower high against 87.3 on the new price high, a bearish divergence just under the 160 psych/intervention line.
Support: 159.659, 159.478, 159.00
Resistance: 159.892, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.66 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes ema20 at 159.48
A break of rising support from 159.09 would be the first structural crack in the NY leg
160 psych is the MOF intervention line; rhetoric or action there could reverse price sharply
Clearance of the 159.89 session high leaves 160.00 as the next reference
A return below the 159 breakout level would mark a failed break
Japan PPI and US jobless claims on Thu could materially shift this read
NY impulse leg, higher lows above the broken Asian range.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range top near 158.96 in London. It then accelerated through the 159.17 london high in the first hour of NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, printing a session high at 159.86 above the 159.66 swing low. RSI(14) at 81.5 is stretched and sits below its 87.3 peak despite the higher high. ATR has expanded to 8.9 pips.
Support: 159.66, 159.44, 159.17
Resistance: 159.86, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.66 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and the rising support
Return below the ema20 at 159.44, near the 61.8% of the NY leg fib, would mark the impulse fading
Approach to the 160.00 psych 160 handle sits in the flagged MoF intervention zone; verbal intervention could trigger a sharp yen rebound
Failure to extend past the session high while RSI diverges keeps a pullback toward the london high in view
Higher highs since the Asian range break; flat top forming at 159.77.
USDJPY broke the 158.66–158.96 Asian range mid-London on post-CPI USD demand. It extended above the 159.17 London high through the first hours of NY, with ATR(14) expanding to 8.6 pips. The marginal session high at 159.77 came with RSI(14) at 79.5, down from 87.3, a mild bearish divergence after two tests of the high and a dip to the 159.65 pullback low.
Support: 159.65, 159.40, 159.17
Resistance: 159.77, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.65 pullback low would break the higher-low chain and open the ema20 near 159.40, about the 38.2% of the NY leg fib
Sustained trade above the 159.77 session high puts the 160.00 psych level in play, where MoF intervention rhetoric could trigger sharp yen rebounds
A deeper retrace toward the 159.17 London high would put the breakout above 159.00 to the test
Thursday's Fed speakers (Williams, Daly) on 50bp odds could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain; Asian range broken higher, NY leg pausing below session high.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian range (158.66–158.96) and 159.00 during London on the post-CPI USD bid. The NY open then extended from the 159.20 London high to a 159.764 session high before the 15:00 bar rejected it. RSI(14) is cooling to 76.9 from 87.3 early in NY hours, with price still above both EMAs and the 159.52 swing low intact.
Support: 159.52, 159.362, 159.20
Resistance: 159.764, 160.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 159.52 swing low breaks the NY HH/HL chain and exposes the ema20 near 159.36, close to the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg
M15 close back below the 159.20 London high would mark the NY breakout as a false break
M15 close above the 159.764 session high opens the 160.00 psych level, where the digest flags MoF intervention risk and two-way volatility
No top-tier US data left today; Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers (Williams, Daly) could shift this read
15:01 UTC
Strong uptrend, extended · RSI 87 · price 159.739
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, NY breakout leg in progress.
USD/JPY extended the post-CPI dollar bid, clearing 159.00 in London and breaking the 159.20 base top in the first hours of NY to a session high at 159.76, about 80 pips above the Asian range high. RSI(14) at 87 is stretched and ATR is expanding to 8.2 pips, with the 160.00 psych handle and intervention zone 25 pips overhead.
Support: 159.52, 159.331, 159.20
Resistance: 159.764, 160.00
What it said to watch
Approach to psych 160 brings MoF intervention risk; a sharp rejection there would mark a blow-off rather than continuation
M15 close below the 159.52 pullback low ends the NY higher-low chain and opens a test of ema20 near 159.33
Loss of the 159.20 base top and the rising trendline would retrace beyond the 50% level of the london-ny leg
Failure to extend past the session high with RSI rolling off 87 would flag momentum exhaustion
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker run could reprice the move
USD/JPY broke out of the 159.10–159.20 London shelf in the first hour of NY on the post-CPI dollar bid, setting a session high of 159.702. RSI(14) is at 86.3, well into overbought, and ATR has risen to 8 pips. The only dip since the breakout held the 159.52 pullback low, and price sits well above the ema20 at 159.29.
Support: 159.516, 159.287, 159.094
Resistance: 159.702, 160.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 159.52 pullback low would be the first lower-low since the NY breakout and exposes the ema20 at 159.29
A break of rising support at the 159.09 london base would end the London-NY leg HH/HL chain
The 160.00 psych 160 handle is the MoF intervention zone, where rhetoric could trigger a sharp yen rebound
RSI falling back under 70 while 159.52 holds would point to consolidation below the session high rather than reversal
14:31 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 85 · price 159.661
HH/HL chain; Asian range broken higher, NY extension.
The post-CPI USD bid lifted the pair out of the 158.66–158.96 Asian range during London. NY hours then extended it from the ema20 area near 159.24 to a 159.66 session high, with RSI(14) at a stretched 84.8 and ATR expanding to 8 pips. The 159.52 pullback low is the first intraday pivot, and the 160 handle with its intervention risk sits 34 pips above.
Support: 159.516, 159.243
Resistance: 159.664
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 159.52 pullback low breaks the NY-session HH/HL chain
Loss of the ema20 at 159.24 and the 159 pivot would put the London breakout in question
MoF or verbal intervention rhetoric near the 160 handle could trigger a sharp yen rebound
Rising lows trendline from the Asia low sits well below price; no test so far in NY
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after NY extension · RSI 82 · price 159.535
HH/HL chain; London broke Asian range, NY extended to 159.60 session high.
London cleared the 158.66–158.96 Asian range and the 159 breakout, paused in a 159.10–159.20 shelf, then the first hour of NY ran to a 159.60 session high as post-CPI yield-gap pressure keeps USD bid. RSI(14) at 82.2, easing from 86.1, is stretched. The ny base sits at 159.44 and ema20 at 159.20, both above a rising trendline from 158.71.
Support: 159.444, 159.202
Resistance: 159.60, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny base at 159.44 opens a pullback toward ema20 at 159.20 and the 38.2% fib near 159.26
Break of the rising trendline from 158.71 would end the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 159 breakout level negates the London break of the Asian range
160.00 psych sits in the MoF intervention zone; headline risk rises with ATR at 7.7 pips
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri US PPI, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; Asian range broken in London, extended in early NY.
London broke above the Asian range high near 158.96, and the first hour of NY extended the leg to a 159.45 session high. Hot US CPI and 5% Treasury yields are keeping the dollar bid. RSI(14) at 83 is stretched, with price about 32 pips above ema20 and the 159.24 breakout level the first pivot below.
Support: 159.24, 159.127, 159.094
Resistance: 159.448, 159.50
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 159.45 session high, with RSI rolling over from 83, would mark short-term exhaustion
The 159.50 round number is the next cap; acceptance above it keeps the 160.00 intervention zone in view
An M15 close back below the 159.24 breakout level, then ema20 at 159.13, would expose the 159.09 swing low near the 50% fib of the Asian-low leg
MOF verbal warnings or rate-check headlines in the 159–160 band can trigger a sharp yen snapback
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into NY open · RSI 81 · price 159.373
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, Asian high broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and stepped through 159.00 on the hot-CPI dollar bid and 5% UST yields. The pre-NY bar ran to a session high at 159.38, a 13.6-pip candle at double the 6.8-pip ATR, leaving RSI(14) at 81.1 with the 159.25 breakout pt and the ema20 at 159.094, the base of the midday consolidation, below.
Support: 159.246, 159.094, 158.956
Resistance: 159.38, 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 159.25 breakout pt would mark the spike as a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 159.094 exposes the 38.2–50% zone of the London leg fib near 159.07–159.14
Acceptance above the 159.38 session high puts the 159.50 round number in play
MOF or intervention headlines near 160.00 can trigger a sharp, outsized reversal
Thu US jobless claims and Fedspeak on 50bp odds could shift the read
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 75 · price 159.27
Higher highs and higher lows since London open, above the Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.96 and the 159 handle, extending the post-CPI USD bid on 5% Treasury yields, and price is pressing a 159.27 session high into the NY open. RSI(14) at 75.2 is overbought, ATR has eased to 6.2 pips, and the 159.09 pullback low and rising trendline define the higher-low chain.
Support: 159.09, 159.00, 158.96
Resistance: 159.27, 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.09 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain. The 38.2% fib of the London leg sits at the same level.
Losing the 159 handle and the asian high at 158.96 would turn the London breakout into a false break.
Acceptance above the 159.27 session high opens the 159.50 psych level.
MOF verbal warnings on the approach to 160 could trigger a sharp yen rebound and two-way volatility.
London broke the Asian high; tight 159.09–159.20 range ahead of NY.
Hot US CPI and hawkish Fed talk carried USD/JPY through the Asian high at 158.96 during London, up to a session high at 159.20. Price is now coiling between the 159.09 range floor and 159.20 above a rising ema20 ahead of NY. RSI(14) at 72.3 is overbought, while ATR has eased to 6.2 pips from 7.5.
Support: 159.094, 159.045, 158.956
Resistance: 159.197
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 159.20 session high extends the London leg; the 160 intervention line sits about 80 pips overhead
A break below the 159.09 range floor exposes the ema20 at 159.05, then a retest of the Asian high near 158.96, the 50% zone of the London leg fib
Any MOF or Japanese official verbal warnings on FX could trigger a sharp reversal from these levels
With no high-impact US data today, US 10y yields holding near 5% are the main driver into the NY session
12:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum hot but ATR easing · RSI 71 · price 159.172
HH/HL chain after London broke the Asian range high.
London broke the Asian high at 158.96 and pushed to a 159.19 session high. That extends yesterday's hot-CPI leg from 158.12 as Treasury yields near 5% widen the rate gap. Pullbacks have held the 159.09 pullback low above a rising ema20 at 159.03, with RSI(14) at 70.8 hot but not stretched and ATR easing to 6.5 pips.
Support: 159.094, 159.029, 158.956
Resistance: 159.186, 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.09 pullback low and the rising lows line opens a retest of the asian high at 158.96, the 50% of the london leg
Close above the 159.19 session high exposes the 159.50 round number
NY open and any MOF verbal warnings as price approaches the 160 intervention zone could materially shift this read
Loss of the ema20 at 159.03 would break the HH/HL chain
London break of Asian range high, higher lows above 159.09 shelf.
London broke the Asian range high at 158.956 and printed a session high at 159.186 as hot US CPI keeps yields and USD bid. The 159.094 shelf has held three times into the London-NY transition, but RSI(14) at 69.6 sits below its 73.1 reading at the prior high, a mild bearish divergence; ATR 6.7 pips.
Support: 159.094, 159.015, 158.956
Resistance: 159.186, 159.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.094 shelf breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema20 at 159.015
Loss of the 158.956 asia high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Close above the 159.186 session high opens the 159.50 round number
Intervention sensitivity: MOF/BoJ verbal warnings near 159-160 could abruptly reverse this read
London trend line from 158.823 is the dynamic floor; a break shifts the read to consolidation
London breakout above Asian high and 159.00, tight flag on rising lows.
London broke the asian high at 158.95 and cleared 159.00, the seven-week high, extending the post-CPI USD bid. Price is holding a tight flag between the 159.09 flag low and the 159.17 session high, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR(14) at 7 pips. Rising lows since early London are intact, and the 159.00 level now coincides with the ema20.
Support: 159.09, 159.00, 158.95
Resistance: 159.17, 160.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 159.00 and the ema20 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 159.09 flag low breaks the rising lows chain
Clearance of the 159.17 session high extends the leg toward the 160.00 psych level and intervention line, where MOF warnings or rate checks are a live risk
No high-impact US data today; Japan PPI in the Tokyo session could shift the read
London break of Asian range, higher lows, tight shelf below session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and the 159.00 round number, extending the post-CPI, yield-driven leg to a session high at 159.168. Price is holding a tight 159.09–159.17 shelf ahead of the NY open, above a rising EMA20 at 158.983. RSI(14) has eased to 67.7 from 73.1 and ATR(14) is 7 pips.
Support: 159.093, 159.00, 158.956
Resistance: 159.168
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 159.093 shelf low opens a retest of the 159.00 round number, the 50% of the London leg
Return below the 158.956 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
Close above the 159.168 session high extends the London leg while the rising lows trendline holds
MOF/BoJ verbal warnings or a rate check approaching the 160 line could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
11:45 UTC
Uptrend, RSI hot but not extreme · RSI 71 · price 159.132
London broke above Asian range high and 159.00; higher lows since 09:00 UTC.
Late London has broken the asian high at 158.96 and cleared the psych 159 handle, printing a 159.168 session high as the post-CPI USD bid and 5% US yields hold. RSI(14) sits at 70.6, off a 73.1 peak, and price holds above a rising ema20 (158.969). The last three bars are compressing at 159.09–159.17 with ATR(14) at 7.2 pips.
Support: 159.00, 158.956, 158.823
Resistance: 159.168
What it said to watch
M15 close back below psych 159 turns the breakout into a false break; the asian high and the 61.8% of the london leg fib sit just under at 158.96
Loss of the london low at 158.823 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain from 09:00 UTC
Session high 159.168 is the area to watch for rejection or extension into the NY open
No scheduled data today, but MOF/BoJ verbal warnings as price approaches the 160 intervention line can trigger sharp yen snap-backs
London broke the Asian range high and the 159.00 handle; higher lows since 05:00 UTC.
Mid-London, USDJPY cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and the 159.00 round number on the post-CPI USD bid, printing a session high at 159.168. The 11:00 UTC bar dipped to 159.016 and held above 159.00. RSI(14) eased to 69.8 from 73.1 and ATR is up to 7.4 pips, with price above both EMAs and the 20 at 158.952 sitting on the Asian high.
Support: 159.00, 158.956, 158.823
Resistance: 159.168, 160.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 159.00 and the asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the rising lows trendline toward the 158.823 london low would end the higher-low chain
A close above the 159.168 session high extends the leg, with 160.00 flagged as the MOF intervention line
Any MOF/BoJ verbal warning or rate check could reverse the move sharply
NY open adds liquidity. No high-impact US data today; Thu claims and Fedspeak are next
11:15 UTC
Uptrend, momentum hot after breakout · RSI 73 · price 159.146
Asian range high broken in London, higher-low chain from 158.707.
Mid-London, USD/JPY cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and the 159.00 round number as the post-CPI USD bid carried over, printing a session high at 159.168. RSI(14) at 73.1 is overbought but not extreme, and ATR has expanded to 7.5 pips. Higher lows from the 158.707 London low through the 158.823 swing low keep the London leg intact.
Support: 159.00, 158.956, 158.823
Resistance: 159.168
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.956 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Hold of 159.00 on a retest keeps the round number as new support
Failure at the 158.823 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
No high-impact data today. MoF verbal intervention headlines on any approach toward 160 could abruptly reverse the move
Thu 13:30 UTC US jobless claims and Fedspeak could shift the read
Higher lows since London open, Asian range broken above.
London cleared the 158.956 asia high and pushed through psych 159.00 to a session high of 159.077, extending the post-CPI bid as hot inflation and Fed-hike pricing keep USD supported. Rising lows since London open sit above the ema20 at 158.912, with RSI(14) at 67.8, firm but not overbought, and ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 159.00, 158.956, 158.912
Resistance: 159.077
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.956 asia high would turn the 159.00 push into a false break
Loss of the London rising lows and the ema20 at 158.912 would end the higher-low chain
Session high 159.077 is the area to watch for rejection or extension. MoF verbal intervention near 160 can trigger sharp yen reversals
Higher lows since 05:00 UTC; London broke the Asian high, then a wick rejection off 159.04.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 158.16 to 158.84 yesterday. London then cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and tagged a 159.041 session high, but an upper wick pushed price back below the 159 handle. Swing lows at 158.707 and 158.823 keep the higher-lows line intact, with price above the ema20 (158.897) and RSI(14) at 60.6.
Support: 158.956, 158.897, 158.823
Resistance: 159.00, 159.041
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 159.041 session high extends the post-CPI leg past the 159 handle
M15 close back below the 158.956 Asian high puts price inside the Asian range, with ema20 at 158.897 next
Break of the 158.823 swing low and the higher-lows line ends the HH/HL sequence
No high-impact US data today; MoF verbal warnings as price nears 159-160 could jolt this read
London cleared the Asian high at 158.95 and probed the 159.00 round number. It printed a session high at 159.04 before easing back, with yesterday's hot US CPI and 5% Treasury yields still underpinning the dollar. Higher lows from 158.71 hold above a rising ema20 at 158.89, RSI(14) at 61 and ATR(14) edging up to 6.7 pips.
Support: 158.956, 158.89, 158.823
Resistance: 159.00, 159.041
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.95 asian high would turn the 159.00 probe into a false break
Break of the higher-lows line and the 158.82 swing low ends the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 159.04 session high clears the round number; 159.00 is also where MoF intervention rhetoric has flared
No high-impact US data today; Japan PPI Thu and Thursday Fedspeak are the next scheduled risks
London broke the Asian high, wick rejection at 159.00.
The hot US CPI leg off 158.16 has extended. London cleared the Asian high at 158.956 and tagged a 159.041 session high, then left an upper wick at the 159.00 round number. Higher lows from 158.707 hold along a rising trendline, with price above the ema20 at 158.881, RSI(14) at 63 and ATR ticking up to 6.8 pips.
Support: 158.956, 158.881, 158.823
Resistance: 159.00, 159.041
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.956 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 158.823 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
M15 close above the 159.041 session high clears the 159.00 round number rejection
Japan intervention rhetoric near 159–160 could trigger sharp two-way spikes
No high-impact US data today. Thursday jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak are the next scheduled risk
USDJPY is holding yesterday's hot-CPI gains. Since the 158.76 london low, London has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but four pushes have stalled at the 158.935 session high, still below the 158.956 asian high and the 159.00 round number. Price sits just above the ema20 (158.861) with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) at 6.4 pips.
Support: 158.861, 158.823, 158.76
Resistance: 158.935, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 asian high puts the 159.00 round number in play; MOF intervention rhetoric near that level could trigger sharp reversals
Break of the 158.823 swing low and the rising trendline undoes the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.76 london low
No high-impact US data today; Japan PPI on Thursday is the next scheduled JPY risk
09:30 UTC
Uptrend, compressing below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 158.922
Higher lows inside the 158.66–158.96 Asian range.
The post-CPI leg from 158.12 to 158.84 has held, and London is printing higher lows along a trendline from the 158.71 Asia dip, with price at 158.92 above the ema20 (158.859) and ema50 and RSI(14) at 57.7. Supply is capping at the 158.935 london high and the 158.956 asian high, just under 159.00 psych. ATR(14) is 6.3 pips.
Support: 158.859, 158.823, 158.76
Resistance: 158.935, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 asian high exposes 159.00 psych, where MOF intervention headlines are a live risk
A break of the 158.823 swing low and the 158.76 london low would end the higher-low trendline
No high-impact US data today. Thursday Fedspeak and Friday's US PPI are the next drivers for the 25bp-vs-50bp debate
London inside Asian range, higher lows from 158.707.
The hot US CPI print drove the 158.12–158.96 leg, which has since stalled. London has stayed inside the Asian range, with three attempts capped near the 158.935 London high just under the 158.956 Asian high. Price holds marginally above a flattening ema20 (158.854) and the ema50 (158.794), with RSI(14) neutral at 51.5 and ATR(14) compressed at 6.3 pips.
Support: 158.794, 158.76, 158.707
Resistance: 158.935, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 Asian high brings 159.00 psych and the range top into play; MOF intervention headlines near 159.00 could trigger a sharp reversal
Break below the 158.76 London low and the ema50 exposes the 158.707 Asia low, ending the higher-low sequence in the cpi leg fib
No high-impact US data today; Japan PPI and US jobless claims on Thu are the next scheduled risk
Higher lows inside the Asian range; Asian high capping.
USDJPY is holding near the top of the Asian range after Tuesday's hot US CPI lifted it from 158.16. The London leg off the 158.707 swing low stalled at a 158.935 session high, just short of the 158.956 Asian high. Rising lows keep price above the ema20 at 158.853 and the ema50 at 158.792, with RSI at 54 and ATR at 6.3 pips.
Support: 158.853, 158.792, 158.707
Resistance: 158.935, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 Asian high breaks the range and exposes 159.00 psych, an intervention-sensitive zone
A second rejection at the 158.935 session high keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of the ema50 at 158.792, then the 158.707 swing low, breaks the rising lows
MOF or rate-check headlines near 159.00 could reverse the move sharply
The hot US CPI leg has stalled into a tight band. London reached 158.935 but stopped short of the 158.956 Asian high, a second rejection below the 159.00 psych level. Higher lows at the 158.707 swing low, 158.76 London low and 158.828 pullback low keep price above both EMAs, with RSI 53.8 neutral and ATR at 6.4 pips.
Support: 158.828, 158.76, 158.707
Resistance: 158.935, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 Asian high, and acceptance above 159.00 psych, would break the consolidation cap
Failure to hold the 158.76 London low, and the higher-low trendline, breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Intervention headlines near 159.00 can produce outsized two-way moves relative to the 6.4-pip ATR
A drop through the 158.707 swing low unwinds the session advance toward the 61.8% fib zone and below
08:30 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, consolidating below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 158.909
Higher lows inside 158.66–158.96 Asian range.
USDJPY is holding the hot-CPI leg inside a ~30-pip Asian range. London has printed a higher low at the 158.76 london low, above the 158.707 swing low, and is pressing toward the 158.956 asian high without a break so far. Price sits above the ema20 (158.849) and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 59 and ATR at 6.2 pips.
Support: 158.849, 158.76, 158.707
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 asian high opens 159.00 psych, the seven-week range top, where MOF intervention headlines are a two-way risk
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 158.76 london low puts the 158.707 swing low back in play
A slip below the ema20 at 158.849 would show the London push fading inside the range
No scheduled USD or JPY data in the next 8h; Thursday's Japan PPI, US jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next catalysts
08:16 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, now ranging near highs · RSI 59 · price 158.917
158.66–158.96 range since Asia, higher swing lows into London open.
The hot US CPI leg from 158.12 stalled at the 158.96 Asian high, and price has held a 158.66–158.96 range since. Early London is pressing the range top, with higher lows at 158.71 and the 158.76 swing low and price above the ema20 at 158.84. RSI(14) sits at 58.6 and ATR(14) at 6.4 pips.
Support: 158.843, 158.76, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.96 Asian high and the 159.00 round number breaks the post-CPI range
MOF intervention warnings near 159.00 are a two-way risk to any break
Failure to hold the 158.76 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.66 Asian low
A slip back below the ema20 at 158.84 returns price to mid-range
Asian range 158.66–158.96 with higher lows, price testing range top.
The hot US CPI lifted the pair from 157.90 to the 158.84 area, and it has since held a 158.66–158.96 Asian range. Higher lows at 158.71 and 158.76 put price back near the Asian high at the London open, above the ema20 at 158.836, with RSI(14) at 55.3 and ATR at 6.2 pips.
Support: 158.836, 158.76, 158.70
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.956 asian high and the 159.00 round number breaks the range; MOF intervention rhetoric near 159.00 could abruptly reverse any break
Failure to hold the 158.76 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.70 pivot
Japan PPI on Thursday and US jobless claims could shift USD/JPY yield-gap pricing
07:46 UTC
Post-CPI plateau, higher lows in Asia · RSI 59 · price 158.898
Inside Asian range 158.66–158.96, higher low at 158.707, testing range top.
USDJPY is holding the hot-CPI leg and has spent Asia inside 158.66–158.96. Early London dipped to a london low of 158.76, rebounded to 158.925 and now sits just under the Asian high at 158.956, above the ema20 at 158.832, with a higher low at 158.707 on the rising lows line. RSI(14) is 58.5 and ATR is 6.3 pips, edging up from 5.5.
Support: 158.832, 158.76, 158.707
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.956 Asian high breaks the session range and brings psych 159.00 into play, the seven-week range top where MOF intervention rhetoric is the stated risk
Losing the 158.76 London low and the ema20 at 158.832 turns the London open into a failed test of the Asian high
A break below the 158.707 higher low cuts the rising lows line and reopens the 158.66 Asian low
Thu Japan PPI and US jobless claims, plus Fri US PPI, are the next catalysts for 50bp Fed pricing and the yield gap
Higher low at 158.71 inside the 158.66–158.96 Asian range, price pressing the range top.
USDJPY is holding the hot US CPI leg higher and is ranging between the 158.664 Asian low and the 158.956 Asian high. A higher swing low at 158.707 around 05:00 UTC has price back above the ema20 and pressing the Asian high into the London open, with RSI(14) at 59.8 and ATR(14) at 6.3 pips. Supply capping just under the 159.00 round number, the top of the seven-week range, is the immediate test.
Support: 158.825, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 Asian high and the 159.00 round number would break the range and could draw MOF intervention headlines
Failure to hold the ema20 at 158.825 puts the 158.707 swing low back in focus
A break below the 158.664 Asian low invalidates the rising-lows read
Thu Japan PPI and US jobless claims, then Fri US PPI, are the next scheduled drivers of 50bp Fed pricing
Asian range 158.664–158.956 tightening: lower highs, higher lows.
The hot US CPI drove a leg from 158.16 to 158.84 that has since stalled. Asia then coiled inside 158.664–158.956, printing lower highs off the asian high and higher lows from the asian low, with ATR(14) easing from 7.3 to 5.8 pips. Ahead of London open, price sits between ema20 (158.816) and ema50 (158.76) with RSI(14) flat at 49.6, below the 159.00 psych level.
Support: 158.76, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.883, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.883 lower high breaks the Asian compression; the asian high at 158.956 and 159.00 psych (seven-week range top, intervention-sensitive) sit just above
Failure to hold ema50 at 158.76 and the 158.707 swing low exposes the asian low at 158.664
London open in under an hour is likely to resolve the tightening range
Thu jobless claims/Fedspeak and Fri US PPI are the next scheduled drivers of 50bp Fed pricing
06:46 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, now ranging · RSI 58 · price 158.864
Inside Asian range 158.664–158.956; higher low vs lower highs, compressing.
After the hot US CPI leg higher, late Asia has bounced from a 158.707 swing low back above the ema20. Price remains inside the 158.664 asian low to 158.956 asian high range. ATR(14) has compressed to 5.5 pips as highs step lower beneath the 159.00 psych level, where the digest flags intervention risk.
Support: 158.817, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.889, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
London open break above the 158.956 asian high exposes the 159.00 psych level, where MOF/BoJ intervention headlines are the main risk
A clear move through the 158.889 prior high ends the lower-high sequence since the Asian session peak
Failure below the 158.707 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 158.664 asian low in play
The hot US CPI leg has stalled into a 158.664–158.956 Asian range. Late-Asia dips held a higher swing low at 158.707, and price is back above ema20 (158.812) and ema50 (158.751) with RSI(14) at 56. ATR(14) has compressed from 7.3 to 5.6 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.812, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 asia high brings the 159.00 psych level into play, where intervention risk is concentrated
Break below the 158.707 swing low and the 158.664 asia low negates the higher-low read inside the range
Price holding above ema20 at 158.812 keeps the higher-low structure intact
MOF/BoJ verbal intervention headlines near 159.00 could abruptly reverse the range
Late-Asia compression, lower highs over a higher low.
The hot US CPI leg from 158.16 to 158.84 has stalled. Asia tagged a 158.956 asia high and then printed lower highs, while the 158.707 swing low held above the 158.664 asia low. Price sits just under the ema20 (158.807) and above the ema50 (158.746), with ATR compressing to 5.6 pips and RSI flat at 50.2 about two hours before London open.
Support: 158.746, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.889, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.889 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the asia high at 158.956
158.956–159.00 round number zone: MOF intervention headline risk escalates there and could trigger a sharp snap lower
Failure to hold the ema50 and 158.707 swing low exposes the 158.664 asia low and the pre-CPI breakout area below
06:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend paused, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 51 · price 158.814
Range 158.66–158.96, lower-high chain inside it, late Asia session.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 158.12 into the 158.956 Asia high, but highs have stepped lower since, with the 05:00 UTC dip to the 158.707 pullback low bought back to the ema20 near 158.81. Price is now pressing the descending trendline around 158.83 just under the 158.848 NY high. RSI 51 is neutral and ATR at 5.8 pips is compressing into the London open.
Support: 158.808, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.848, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 158.848 NY high reopens the 158.956 Asia high
Failure to hold the 158.707 pullback low exposes the 158.664 Asia low and breaks the range floor
159.00 round number is the intervention-risk zone; any MOF/BoJ warning headline could snap the pair lower
London open within the hour typically expands range beyond the current 5.8-pip ATR
Pullback from 158.956 Asia high, lower-high sequence, lows holding above ema50.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/JPY, and the early-Asia rally from the 158.664 Asian low stalled at a 158.956 session high just shy of 159.00. Lower highs have followed since, and price has slipped back to the 61.8% of the Asia rally. Late Asia trades 158.78, below the ema20 at 158.807 and above the ema50 at 158.741, with the 158.707 session low holding, RSI(14) neutral at 47.8 and ATR compressing to 5.8 pips.
Support: 158.741, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.807, 158.889, 158.956
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.707 session low exposes the 158.664 asian low and the 158.68–158.70 200dma zone
M15 close above the 158.889 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and puts the 158.956 session high back in view
MOF/BoJ intervention headlines near 159.00 could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
London open may break the compressed late-Asia range (ATR 5.8 pips)
Lower highs below the 158.956 Asia session high; price testing ema50.
The CPI-driven bid carried the Asia rally to a 158.956 session high, short of 159.00, before a rejection and a lower-high sequence pulled price below the ema20 (158.81) onto the ema50 at 158.74. The 158.707 swing low sits near the 78.6% retracement of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) at 44.8 and ATR 5.9 pips.
Support: 158.74, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.81, 158.889, 158.956
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.707 swing low and the 158.664 asia low confirms a lower-low and breaks the Asia rally structure
Close above the 158.889 lower high and trendline reopens the 158.956 session high and 159.00
London open in roughly 1.5–2.5h typically expands the Asian range
MOF/BoJ intervention headlines near 159.00 could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Post-CPI rally, fading from Asia high · RSI 45 · price 158.759
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia session high.
Hot US CPI lifted USD/JPY through the NY session, and early Asia extended it to a 158.956 Asia high before a lower-high, lower-low fade set in. Price sits at 158.759, below ema20 at 158.815 but above ema50 at 158.739, after a dip to the 158.707 swing low; RSI(14) 45.4 and ATR easing to 6.1 pips from 7.3 point to a drift rather than a flush, with price now below the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 158.739, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.815, 158.889, 158.956
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.707 swing low and ema50 exposes the 158.664 asian low
Reclaim of ema20 and a break of the 158.889 lower high negates the fade from the asia high
London open in roughly 2h may break the Asian range either side
MOF/BoJ intervention headlines near 159.00 could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
05:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back in late Asia · RSI 45 · price 158.76
Lower highs from Asia high, testing ema50.
The hot US CPI rally carried into the Asia session, where USD/JPY topped at the 158.956 asia high just short of 159.00. Since then a lower-high sequence (158.92, 158.889) has dragged price below ema20 at 158.821 to test ema50 at 158.738, with RSI(14) at 44.7 and ATR near 6 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.738, 158.69, 158.664
Resistance: 158.821, 158.889, 158.956
What it said to watch
M15 close below ema50 at 158.738 exposes the rollover low near 158.69 and the 158.664 asia low
Recovery above the 158.889 lower high breaks the descending line from the asia high
MOF/BoJ intervention headlines near 159.00 could trigger a sharp yen snap-back
Fib 61.8% of the Asia leg (158.776) already lost; 78.6% sits near 158.726
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 52 · price 158.824
Post-CPI higher lows; Asia high 158.956 capping, holding 61.8% retrace.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/JPY from ~158.00 to 158.84 during NY hours. Asia then swept up from the asia low at 158.664 to a session high of 158.956 and retraced to the 61.8% fib at 158.78, where demand held three times. Price is now compressing under a run of lower highs near 158.89, hugging a flat ema20 at 158.827 with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR easing to 5.9 pips.
Support: 158.78, 158.664
Resistance: 158.89, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 158.78 (61.8% fib) breaks the asia higher-low trendline and exposes the asia low at 158.664
A close above the 158.89 lower highs and the 158.956 session high opens the 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention-risk headlines are a two-way swing factor
London open often sets direction out of the current Asian range of 158.664–158.956
Late-Asia range 158.78–158.89 under 158.956 session high.
Hot US CPI lifted USD/JPY from 158.12 to an Asia session high at 158.956, with a rejection short of the 159.00 psych level. Late Asia is ranging between the 158.78 range floor and the 158.888 range top, price sitting just under the ema20 (158.827) with RSI neutral at 51 and ATR easing to 6.2 pips. The pullback is holding the 50–61.8% zone of the asia leg fib.
Support: 158.78, 158.733, 158.664
Resistance: 158.888, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.78 range floor exposes the ema50 at 158.733 and the asia low at 158.664
Close above the 158.888 range top brings the 158.956 session high back into play
Break of 158.956 puts 159.00 psych in focus, where MOF verbal intervention risk rises
London open is the next test of the late-Asia range
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 158.836
Higher low at 158.78 inside 158.66–158.96 Asian range.
Hot US CPI drove the NY rally from 158.16 to 158.84. Asia pushed to an Asian range high at 158.96, then pulled back to a higher low at 158.78, near the 61.8% fib of the 158.66–158.96 leg. Price sits just above the 158.83 ema20 mid-Asia session, with RSI 55 and ATR easing to 6.3 pips.
Support: 158.78, 158.73, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.78 higher low breaks the Asian rising trendline and exposes the 158.73 ema50
Loss of the 158.66 asia low flips the intraday structure to lower lows
Close above the 158.96 asia high puts the 159.00 psych level in play, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
London open could expand the Asian range; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD risk
Higher lows since Asian low; tight 158.78–158.92 coil.
The hot US CPI drove a jump from 158.16 to 158.84 in NY. Asia added to it with an asian high at 158.956, just shy of psych 159.00, before a pullback held a higher low at 158.78, near the 61.8% of the Asia leg. Late in the Asia session price is coiling between 158.78 and the 158.92 range top, above both EMAs, with RSI 56.6 and ATR 6.6 pips.
Support: 158.78, 158.724, 158.664
Resistance: 158.92, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.92 range top and the 158.956 asian high puts psych 159.00 in play. News flags MOF intervention risk there.
Losing the 158.78 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema50 at 158.72, then the asian low at 158.66.
London open could break the 158.78–158.92 coil and set direction for the session.
Any MOF or Finance Ministry verbal intervention near 159.00 could reverse the Asia leg sharply.
Higher low at 158.779 inside 158.66–158.96 Asian range.
The hot US CPI beat drove the break from 158.17 to 158.84 during NY hours. Late in the Asia session, price has held the 158.779 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the 158.664 asia low to 158.956 asia high leg, with RSI(14) back to 55 from 70 and price above both EMAs. The asia high sits just under 159.00 psych resistance.
Support: 158.779, 158.718, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 asia high puts 159.00 psych in play, where MOF intervention risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.779 swing low and the ema50 at 158.718 breaks the higher-low chain
Close back below the 158.664 asia low and the 158.68–158.70 200-dma zone would mark a failed breakout
Asia higher lows holding below the 158.956 session high.
Asia session cleared the 158.84 post-CPI high to a 158.956 session high before stalling short of 159.00 psych. Higher lows have since formed at the 158.78 swing low, near the 61.8% of the Asia leg, with price back above ema20 (158.815). RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 56 while ATR(14) expanded to 7.1 pips as the hot US CPI move digests.
Support: 158.815, 158.78, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.78 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.664 asia low
Break of the 158.956 session high puts 159.00 psych in play, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Holding above ema20 keeps the Asia leg retest read intact into London open
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing mid-Asian range · RSI 52 · price 158.831
Post-CPI higher lows; Asia pulling back from 158.96 high.
The hot US CPI beat drove a 158.12–158.48 spike in NY and the move extended in Asia to a 158.956 asian high, just shy of 159.00 psych. Price has since retraced into the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with the 158.78 swing low holding and supply capping at the 158.864 lower high. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 52.4, price sits above the ema20 (158.81) and the ema50 (158.707), and ATR(14) is 7.1 pips.
Support: 158.78, 158.707, 158.664
Resistance: 158.864, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.864 lower high reopens the 158.956 asian high and 159.00 psych, where MOF intervention risk caps follow-through
Failure to hold the 158.78 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the ema50 at 158.707 and the 158.664 asian low
London open in ~4h could break the Asian range either way; a close back below 158.68–158.70 would mark a failed breakout
03:01 UTC
Post-CPI uptrend, pulling back in Asia · RSI 51 · price 158.807
Lower highs off the 158.956 session high, testing the 61.8% fib.
The hot US CPI uptrend extended in the Asia session to a session high at 158.956, with rejection short of the 159.00 psych level. Since then price has printed lower highs and sits at the 61.8% fib near the 158.779 swing low, just under ema20 (158.81) and above ema50. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 51 while ATR(14) has expanded to 7.3 pips.
Support: 158.779, 158.702, 158.664
Resistance: 158.864, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.779 swing low exposes ema50 at 158.702 and the Asia low at 158.664
A break above the 158.864 lower high voids the pullback read and reopens the session high at 158.956
MOF intervention warnings as price nears 159.00 psych could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 57 · price 158.857
Post-CPI higher lows intact; lower highs compressing under 158.96.
The hot US CPI print drove the NY rally from 158.16 to 158.84, and Asia extended to a 158.956 Asia high before pulling back to a 158.79 higher low, near the ema20 and the 50% of the Asia leg. Price is now compressing under lower highs at 158.92, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR(14) up to 7.2 pips from ~5.
Support: 158.811, 158.792, 158.664
Resistance: 158.92, 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.956 Asia high puts the 159.00 psych level and 159.04 resistance in play, where MOF intervention rhetoric is the main brake
Failure to hold the 158.79 higher low and the ema20 exposes the 158.66 Asian low and breaks the Asia higher-low sequence
MOF or Finance Ministry verbal warnings near 159 could materially shift this read
Asian break of the NY high rejected below 159.00; pullback to 50% fib of the Asian leg.
Asia extended the post-CPI USD bid through the NY high at 158.85 to a session high of 158.956, but was rejected short of 159.00. The pullback low at 158.79 sits on the 50% fib of the Asian leg, with the close just under the ema20 at 158.805. Price holds above the ema50 at 158.691 and the asia low at 158.664; RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 51.5 while ATR(14) expanded to 7.3 pips.
Support: 158.79, 158.691, 158.664
Resistance: 158.805, 158.85, 158.956
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.79 pullback low exposes the ema50 at 158.69 and the 158.664 asia low
M15 close back above the 158.85 ny high reopens the 158.956 session high and 159.00
MOF verbal warnings or rate checks near 159.00 could materially shift this read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed-speaker slate are the next USD catalysts
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high in Asia · RSI 64 · price 158.91
Higher low at 158.664, break and retest of 158.85 prior high.
The hot US CPI lifted USD/JPY from 158.16 and drove it into Asia. There, a dip to the 158.664 Asian low was bought and price cleared the 158.85 prior high to a 158.956 session high. The 02:00 pullback was absorbed near ema20 at 158.806 and closed back above the prior high. RSI is 64, easing from a 70 peak, and ATR is expanding to 6.9 pips.
Support: 158.85, 158.806, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00, 159.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.85 prior high and ema20 at 158.806 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.664 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain
159.00 round number and 159.04 mid-Oct high sit just above the session high. The digest flags this as the MOF intervention zone, so watch for rejection or break.
MOF verbal warnings could produce an abrupt yen spike against the trend
Higher lows since CPI; Asia broke the late-NY ceiling, now retesting it.
Hot US CPI lifted USD/JPY from 158.12 into a chain of higher lows. Asia then cleared the 158.84 prior high from late NY to a 158.96 session high. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 59.5 as price retests that prior high, still above ema20 at 158.795, with ATR(14) expanding to 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.84, 158.795, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.84 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes ema20 at 158.795
Loss of the 158.66 asian low, just under ema50 at 158.68, breaks the rising lows line
Session high 158.96 and 159.00 psych sit in the digest's MOF intervention zone: an area to watch for rejection or break
Fib 38.2% of the CPI leg at 158.64 is the next reference below the asian low
Any MOF verbal warning or sudden yen spike could reverse the structure abruptly
Asia broke above prior NY high, holding near session high.
The post-CPI uptrend (USD firm on the hot 0.4% m/m print) extended in the Asia session, breaking the prior NY high at 158.85 and setting a session high at 158.956. RSI(14) has eased from 70.2 to 67.8 as price holds just under the 159.00 round number, which the digest flags as MOF's intervention line. The 38.2% retracement of the Asian rally sits at the old NY high.
Support: 158.848, 158.789, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the prior NY high at 158.85 would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 158.956 session high brings the 159.00 round number into play
Loss of ema20 at 158.789, then the 158.664 asian low, unwinds the overnight leg
MOF verbal warnings near 159.00 could reverse the move sharply
Asia break above prior NY high, higher lows from 158.66.
Early Asia session pushed through the prior NY high at 158.85 to a session high of 158.956. Hot US CPI and hawkish Fed talk keep the yield gap wide, and RSI(14) at 69.7 sits just shy of overbought with ATR expanding to 6.4 pips. Price holds above the ema20 (158.776) and ema50 (158.661), with the 159.00 round number and the 159.04 intervention line directly overhead.
Support: 158.85, 158.776, 158.664
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00, 159.04
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 158.85 ny high would turn the breakout into a false break; the 38.2% of the asia leg fib sits at the same level
Failure to hold the ema20 at 158.776, the 61.8% of the asia leg fib, exposes the 158.66 asian low
159.00–159.04 is the MOF intervention zone; verbal warnings could trigger a sharp yen spike and reverse the move
A rejection at the 158.956 session high with RSI rolling from 70 would mark a stall under 159.00
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout in Asia · RSI 70 · price 158.935
Break above post-CPI range top, higher low at 158.664.
Asia session cleared the 158.848 range top that capped the US afternoon. Price printed a session high at 158.941 as ATR(14) expanded to 6.5 pips from 4.8, extending the CPI leg from 158.12 that the hot US print and hawkish Fed-speak drove. RSI(14) is at 70.2, just over the overbought line, with price above both EMAs and the 159.00 psych level / intervention line about 6 pips overhead.
Support: 158.848, 158.761, 158.664
Resistance: 158.941, 159.00, 159.04
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 159.00 psych level or the 159.04 oct high, the intervention line where MOF jawboning risk rises
An M15 close back below the 158.848 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 at 158.761, then the 158.664 asian low, breaks the higher-low sequence
A failure to extend past the 158.941 session high with RSI rolling off 70 marks stalling momentum
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 60 · price 158.848
Higher low at 158.66, retesting the NY high.
The hot US CPI print lifted USD/JPY about 30 pips at 13:30 UTC, and the move carried to a 158.848 NY high before a slow drift into the rollover. In early Asia, demand stepped in at the 158.664 Asian low, a shallow hold of the CPI rally fib. Price is back above ema20 and ema50 and pressing the NY high, with ATR picking up to 6.1 pips.
Support: 158.744, 158.664, 158.64
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.848 NY high breaks the consolidation and opens the 159.00 round number, the flagged MOF intervention line
Failure to hold the 158.664 Asian low breaks the higher-low structure and puts ema50 at 158.64 in play
Loss of ema20 at 158.744 returns price to the overnight 158.66–158.85 range
Any MOF verbal warning during the Asia session could abruptly reverse the CPI rally
158.66–158.85 range after CPI leg; early Asia swept overnight lows.
The CPI leg from 158.12 has stalled into a 158.66–158.85 range, with the 158.85 range top capping three times since the hot US CPI print. Early Asia swept the 158.69 overnight lows to a 158.66 Asia low and recovered back above the ema20 at 158.738, with RSI(14) at 59 and ATR(14) back up to 5.9 pips.
Support: 158.738, 158.69, 158.664
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.85 range top opens the 159.00 psych level, where MOF has an intervention track record
A close below the 158.66 Asia low breaks the range and exposes 158.57, the 38.2% of the CPI leg
MOF verbal warnings or a sudden yen spike near 159.00 could reverse this read sharply
Tight 158.66–158.85 range since NY afternoon, lower highs.
The hot US CPI print lifted the pair from 158.16 to a 158.848 range top. Since then price has held a shallow range above the 23.6% fib of the post-CPI rally. Early Asia session is rotating between a 158.664 asia low and a 158.821 asia high, with lower highs off the range top, price just under ema20 (158.732) and above ema50 (158.626), and RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 158.664, 158.626, 158.452
Resistance: 158.821, 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.848 range top breaks the lower highs and opens the 159.00 round number, where intervention risk is live
Loss of the 158.664 asia low exposes ema50 at 158.63, then the 158.452 cpi pb low near the 38.2% fib
ATR(14) back up to 5.7 pips from 4.8; a break of the asia high or asia low would signal the range is resolving
Tight consolidation 158.69–158.85 above the CPI breakout.
Hot US CPI drove a 13:30 UTC breakout from the 157.87–158.25 pre-data range to an NY high at 158.85. Since then price has held a tight 158.69–158.85 consolidation, with RSI(14) cooling from 70.6 to 53.5 and ATR compressed to 5.4 pips. The early Asia session saw a spike to 158.82 rejected, and price is back near the overnight low at 158.69 with EMA20 (158.733) just under the last close.
Support: 158.686, 158.623, 158.482
Resistance: 158.821, 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.69 overnight low exposes the ema50 at 158.62, then the cpi bar high near 158.48 (38.2% of the CPI leg fib)
A close above the 158.82 asia spike and the 158.85 NY high reopens the 159.00 range top, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Thu US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate (Williams, Daly, Goolsbee) could shift the read on the CPI move
Consolidation below 158.85 day high, holding above 158.69 session low.
The hot US CPI print drove a ~70-pip NY leg from 158.12 to the 158.85 day high. Price has since faded into a tight 158.69–158.85 consolidation as the Asia session opens. RSI(14) has cooled from 70 to 49 and ATR is down to 5 pips, with price just under a flattening ema20 at 158.73 and above the rising ema50 at 158.62.
Support: 158.686, 158.618, 158.546
Resistance: 158.732, 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.69 session low, a pivot also flagged in the digest, exposes the ema50 at 158.62 and the 158.55 pullback low
An M15 close back above the ema20 and the 158.85 day high reopens the 159.00 range top, where intervention risk is live
A break of the rising support line from the 158.55 pullback low ends the post-CPI higher-low sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity; MOF jawboning near 159.00 could materially shift this read