USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 73 · price 159.803
Higher lows since 156.07; range top broken, new swing high 159.94.
Higher lows have been in place since the late-October 156.07 low (156.96, 157.25, 157.67). The hot US CPI beat broke the 157.1-158.8 multi-week range. The move extended through the 159.00 breakout level to a 159.94 swing high, just shy of the 160.00 intervention line flagged by MOF. RSI at 73 is overbought, and ATR(14) has compressed from 44.9 to 34.5 pips despite the breakout, while the ema20 (158.76) and ema50 (158.35) both slope higher with price above each.
Support: 159.00, 158.758, 158.354
Resistance: 159.937, 160.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 159.00 breakout level would turn the move into a false break back toward the ema20 at 158.76
Trade through the 160.00 intervention line raises MOF verbal or actual intervention risk and the potential for a sharp snap-back
Thursday's Fed-speak slate and Friday's US core PPI (f/c 5% y/y) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the ema50 at 158.35 and the higher-low trendline would break the swing structure
Close above the 159.94 swing high extends the breakout leg
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating out of range · RSI 74 · price 159.851
Range break above 158.77 range top, higher lows since 157.25.
USDJPY has cleared the multi-week range top near 158.77, which capped price at least four times, after the hot US CPI beat and rising Fed hike pricing. The pair printed a swing high at 159.937, just shy of the 160 handle and the market's intervention line. Higher lows from 157.25 and 157.67 underpin the move. Both EMAs are rising with ema20 at 158.649 above ema50. RSI at 74.4 is overbought, and ATR has turned up from compression near 34 pips.
Support: 158.77, 158.649
Resistance: 159.937
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 158.77 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold psych 159 exposes the range top and ema20 near 158.65
A push through the 160 handle raises MOF intervention risk and the chance of a sharp yen-led reversal
Thu Fed speakers and Fri core PPI (f/c 5%) could materially shift the 50bp pricing behind this leg
A break of the higher lows trendline from 157.25 would end the swing uptrend read
Higher lows since 156.08, multi-week range top cleared.
Higher lows have stacked up from the 156.08 trough through 156.96, 157.25 and the 157.67 swing low. The pair has now broken through the 158.77–158.96 range top that capped it for three weeks, printing a 10-wk high at 159.60 as the hot US CPI beat lifted Fed hike pricing. EMA20 sits above a rising EMA50 and price is above both. ATR(14) compressed from the mid-40s to 34 pips before ticking up to 36 on the break, and RSI at 71.5 is in overbought territory.
Support: 158.96, 158.521, 157.668
Resistance: 159.597, 160.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 158.96 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
The 160.00 intervention line and any MOF verbal escalation cap the upside and raise reversal risk
Fri US core PPI (f/c 5%) and Thu jobless claims/Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Holding the ema20 near 158.52 keeps the higher-low sequence intact; a break of the rising-lows trendline and the 157.67 swing low would end it
Fib 50% retracement of the 157.67–159.60 leg near 158.63 sits just above the ema20
12:08 UTC
Uptrend, breaking range top · RSI 64 · price 158.963
Higher lows since 156.08; late-Oct range top cleared.
Higher lows have held since the 156.08 swing low (156.96, 157.25, 157.67). The CPI leg from 157.67, driven by the hot US October print, cleared the 158.77 prior high that capped the 157.25–158.77 range for two weeks, and price is now pressing the 159.00 psych level at a seven-week high. ATR(14) has eased from 45 to 33.7 pips through the break, and price holds above a rising ema20 (158.41) that sits over the ema50 (158.18). RSI at 64 is firm but not overbought.
Support: 158.766, 158.412, 157.668
Resistance: 159.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 158.77 prior high would mark a false break and put price back inside the 157.25–158.77 range
A sustained hold above 159.00 psych leaves the 160.00 intervention line, flagged by MOF, as the next reference
A pullback to ema20 near 158.41, the 38.2% of the CPI leg, tests whether the breakout holds
Failure to hold the 157.67 swing low would break the higher-lows sequence
Thu Fedspeak (Williams, Daly) and Fri US PPI could materially shift this read; Japan PPI is also due Thu
Higher lows since 156.08; range top at 158.77 cleared.
The rally from the 156.08 low has built a higher-low sequence (156.96, 157.25, 157.67), and the hot US CPI beat pushed price out of the 157.25–158.77 range through the prior high toward the 158.96 swing high. Price sits above a rising ema20 (158.35), which holds above the ema50 (158.15), while RSI near 62 leaves room before overbought. ATR(14) has compressed from about 45 to 35 pips even as the break developed, and the 159.00 round number overlaps the intervention-risk zone flagged in the macro backdrop.
Support: 158.77, 158.354, 157.668
Resistance: 158.956, 159.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 158.77 prior high would turn the range break into a false break
Rejection at the 158.96 swing high and 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention risk escalates
Failure to hold the 157.67 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
US PPI on Fri 13:30 UTC, plus Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Price holding above the higher-low line and the ema20 keeps the rally structure intact
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 158.87
Higher lows since 156.08, fresh high at 158.96.
USD/JPY has printed higher lows from the 156.08 trough through 156.96, 157.25 and the 157.67 swing low. The hot US CPI print lifted price through the 158.67–158.77 prior high cluster to a window high at 158.96, a few pips below the 159.04 mid-October high that the market treats as the MOF intervention line. EMA20 at 158.31 sits above a rising EMA50 at 158.12, RSI at 62.6 is firm but short of overbought, and ATR(14) has compressed from about 45 to 35.8 pips, so the advance has been grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 158.70, 158.31, 157.67
Resistance: 158.96, 159.04
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 159.04 oct high clears the top of the range in place since mid-October
A return below the 158.70 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.67 swing low and the higher-low line breaks the rising structure
MOF verbal warnings near 159.00 could trigger a sharp reversal from the window high
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC and Japan Q3 GDP Sun 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Dips that hold the ema20 at 158.31 keep the higher-low sequence intact