USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range cap · RSI 61 · price 158.755
Higher lows into a flat 158.6-158.85 cap.
Higher lows since the 156.08 trough (156.96, 157.25, the 157.67 swing low) against repeated failures at 158.6-158.85 have built an ascending-triangle-type structure over three weeks. The hot US CPI print lifted the pair back to the range cap at 158.85, with price above a rising ema20 (158.25) and ema50 (158.09) and the 20 holding above the 50. ATR(14) has compressed from ~45 to 36 pips, consistent with the pair coiling beneath the cap rather than trending through it.
Support: 158.249, 158.088, 157.668
Resistance: 158.848, 158.946, 159.04
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.95 prior high opens the 159.04 mof zone, where MOF intervention risk caps the structure
Rejection at the range cap and a slip back below the ema20 at 158.25 returns price to the mid-range
Failure to hold the 157.67 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the higher lows trendline
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers are the next USD catalyst for a test of the cap
18:02 UTC
Higher lows since late-Oct low, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 158.808
Higher lows into a flat 158.67-158.77 cap, now probing above it.
Higher lows have stepped up from 156.075 through 156.96 and the 157.254 swing low, tracking a rising trendline. Highs held flat at the 158.67-158.77 range top for two weeks. The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) pushed price through that cap to 158.84, with RSI at 62.5 and price above both EMAs. The ema20 sits above the ema50 and both are edging higher. ATR(14) has eased from about 45 to 38 pips through the consolidation, so this push comes out of compressed conditions.
Support: 158.77, 158.195, 157.254
Resistance: 158.946, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 158.77 range top would turn the push into a false break and put the ema20 at 158.20 back in focus
A close above the 158.95 prior high and the 159.00 round number extends the breakout, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and again at 23:30 UTC could shift the CPI-driven move within the next bar
Failure to hold the rising trendline and the 157.254 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
14:02 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the range top · RSI 58 · price 158.515
157.25–158.77 range with a higher low at 157.67.
USD/JPY has held a 157.25–158.77 range since the late-October rally from 156.08, with a higher low at 157.67 and supply repeatedly capping the 158.55–158.77 range top. The hot US October CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3% forecast, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) lifted the pair back into the range top, and price sits above both the ema20 (158.13) and the ema50 (158.03), which are flat with the ema20 just above. ATR(14) has compressed from about 45 to 38 pips, consistent with a squeeze against resistance.
Support: 158.13, 157.67, 157.25
Resistance: 158.77, 158.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.77 swing high breaks the range and opens the 158.95 prior high; MOF intervention rhetoric near 159 could limit follow-through
Failure to hold the 158.13 ema20 after the CPI spike returns price to the middle of the range
A break of the 157.67 higher low and the higher-lows trendline negates the squeeze, exposing the 157.42 rally fib 50% and the 157.25 swing low
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) could extend or unwind the CPI reaction
10:02 UTC
Sideways, contracting after October recovery · RSI 51 · price 158.105
Lower highs and higher lows inside 157.26–158.77 range.
USDJPY has held a 157.26–158.77 range for two weeks after recovering from the 156.08 low. Lower highs at the 158.77 swing high, 158.67 and the 158.53 range top, plus a higher low at 157.67 above the 157.26 swing low, form a tightening coil. Price sits marginally above a flattening ema20 (158.09) and ema50 (158.01), RSI 50.6 is neutral and ATR(14) has eased from ~45 to 36.6 pips, a compression regime. Friday's strong payrolls failed to clear the range top as oil-led yield declines and intervention risk capped the topside.
Support: 158.01, 157.67, 157.26
Resistance: 158.53, 158.77
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast 0.2%
H4 close above the 158.53 range top and the lower-highs line opens the 158.77 swing high, an intervention-sensitive zone
Failure to hold the ema50 near 158.01 and then the 157.67 higher low breaks the higher-lows line
Loss of the 157.26 swing low, near the 50% retracement of the 156.08–158.77 swing, ends the range read
06:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after recovery leg · RSI 50 · price 158.044
Range 157.26-158.77, lower highs compressing into the top half.
The recovery from the 156.08 low stalled at the 158.77 range high, and price has rotated between the 157.26 range floor and a series of lower highs at 158.58 and 158.53 for over a week. The NFP-driven spike above 158.50 faded, and soft Japan data has not lifted the pair. Price sits pinned between a flattening ema20 at 158.09 and ema50 at 158.01, with RSI near 50 and ATR(14) compressing from 45 to 37 pips. That is a coiled range heading into today's US CPI, with the week low at 157.67 holding above the rising support line.
Support: 157.67, 157.26, 156.96
Resistance: 158.09, 158.53, 158.77
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
H4 close above the 158.77 range high, near the 158.68 200-dma, breaks the lower-high sequence; intervention headlines are likely near 159.04
Failure to hold the 157.67 week low exposes the 157.26 range floor and the rising support line
A break of the range floor opens the 156.96 oct low and the 50% retracement near 157.42 gives way
Holding back above the ema20 at 158.09 would put price back at the lower high at 158.53
02:02 UTC
Sideways, range compressing below the high · RSI 49 · price 158.005
Lower highs from 158.77 against rising lows from 157.25.
USDJPY has held a 157.25–158.77 range since the late-October rebound from the 156.96 prior low. A run of lower highs (158.77, 158.67, 158.58, 158.53) is pressing against rising lows from the 157.25 swing low, and this week's low at 157.67 sits at the 61.8% retracement of the 156.96–158.77 leg. Price is pinned around the flat EMA20 and EMA50 near 158.00 with ATR(14) contained near 39 pips. Friday's NFP beat lifted the pair back off 157.25, but intervention risk near 158.70–159.00 and the 200-dma at 158.68 have kept supply capping the upper end of the range.
Support: 157.67, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.55, 158.77
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue (~11.5h) is the likely catalyst for a move out of the compression
H4 close above the 158.77 range high clears the lower-highs trendline and the 158.68 200-dma, with 159.04 next
Rejection again at the 158.55 lower highs keeps the narrowing range intact
Loss of the 157.67 week low and 61.8% fib exposes the 157.25 swing low; a break there opens the 156.96 prior low
Intervention headlines near 158.70–159.00 could abruptly reverse any upside extension