Range break above 158.58, compressing below the 158.85 session high.
USD/JPY spent Monday and the Asia/London part of Tuesday inside a 157.67–158.55 range below the weekly open area, then broke out in the NY session as the hot US CPI print and hawkish Fedspeak lifted the dollar, clearing Friday's 158.58 prior high and running to a 158.85 session high. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 158.49 and EMA(50) at 158.29, with RSI(14) easing to 69 from a 77 peak and ATR(14) compressing to 13.6 pips as bars tighten under the high after NY close. The breakout leg has a clean Fib anchor from Monday's 157.67 low, with the series of higher lows since Monday evening still intact.
Support: 158.58, 158.49, 158.31
Resistance: 158.85, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC, within the next bar, and could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 158.58 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break back into the range
Failure to hold ema20 at 158.49 exposes the weekly open at 158.31 and the 50% Fib near 158.26
Close above the 158.85 session high opens the 159.00 psych level, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
US Initial Jobless Claims Thursday 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) is the next data risk
Post-CPI breakout above prior high, tight range at week high.
USD/JPY drifted from the weekly open at 158.31 to a 157.67 low into Monday's NY hours. The hot US CPI beat in Tuesday's NY session then lifted it through the prior high at 158.58 to a week high of 158.85. Since then price has held a tight 158.73–158.85 band well above a steepening EMA(20) at 158.47. RSI(14) is overbought at 71 but easing from 76.8, ATR has contracted from 16.9 to 14.2 pips, and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI impulse from Tuesday's 157.87 low sits right at the EMA(20).
Support: 158.58, 158.468, 158.31
Resistance: 158.848
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 158.85 week high opens the path to the 159 area, where MOF intervention risk rises
Failure to hold the 158.58 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break and expose the ema20 at 158.47
A slide back below the weekly open at 158.31 and the higher lows line from Monday's low would negate the CPI move
Higher lows since Monday; breakout above Monday high, now a tight hold above 158.70.
USD/JPY ranged 157.87–158.16 through the Asia and London sessions, then broke above Monday's 158.525 high at the NY open on the hot US CPI beat (0.4% headline, 0.3% core). The move ran to a 158.848 week high and cleared the 158.70 prior cap, with EMA(20) crossing above EMA(50) on the impulse. Since then price has compressed in a 158.73–158.85 band above both EMAs, with ATR easing to 14.4 pips and RSI(14) still overbought, slipping from 76.8 to 74.7 as the high stalls on the higher lows trendline from Monday's 157.668 low.
Support: 158.70, 158.525, 158.437
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 158.70 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.525 Monday high reopens the pre-CPI range
A pullback to the 38.2% of the Monday low–week high leg (~158.40) would sit near the ema20 at 158.437
A close above the 158.848 week high puts the 159.00 round number in play, where MOF intervention risk is flagged
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, about 2.5h out, could shift the read on any 25bp vs 50bp December language
Losing the higher lows trendline from 157.668 breaks this week's structure
Monday range broken higher; Tuesday higher lows, stalling at week high.
USDJPY broke out of Monday's 157.67–158.53 range in the first hour of NY after the hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%), with soft Japanese data adding to yen weakness. Price cleared Friday's prior high at 158.58 and printed a week high at 158.85. EMA(20) at 158.40 has turned up above a rising EMA(50). RSI(14) at 74.1 is overbought and has eased from 76.8 as the advance stalls just under the week high.
Support: 158.58, 158.399, 157.668
Resistance: 158.848, 159.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read if they lean hawkish or push back on 50bp
An H1 close back below the 158.58 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
159.00 psych level sits near the zone where MOF intervention risk rises; watch it for rejection or a break
Loss of the Tuesday higher lows and the ema20 near 158.40 would expose the Monday low at 157.67
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-CPI leg · RSI 77 · price 158.811
Range break to week high, higher lows.
Hot October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) and Logan's hawkish remarks drove a NY-session break out of the 157.67–158.53 range. That range had held through Monday and early Tuesday, and the breakout lifted USD/JPY to a week high at 158.84, with weak Japanese data adding to yen softness. EMA(20) has turned up through EMA(50), and RSI(14) has held above 70 for six bars. That is overbought with no divergence yet, while price sits ~45 pips above EMA(20). The Friday high at 158.58 is the first pullback reference, and the 50% retrace of today's 157.87–158.84 leg lines up with EMA(20) near 158.36.
Support: 158.58, 158.36, 158.31
Resistance: 158.84, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.58 Friday high would leave the range break exposed to a false break
A pullback holding EMA(20) / the 50% retrace near 158.36 keeps the higher-lows line intact. Losing the 158.31 weekly open returns the read to range
Week high at 158.84 and the 159.00 psych level, where MOF intervention risk builds, sit directly overhead
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift December hike pricing and this read
Range break above 158.58 prior high; higher lows from Monday's 157.67 week low.
USD/JPY spent Monday and the Asia and London sessions today boxed between the 157.67 week low and 158.25, then broke higher at the NY open on the hot US October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%). The move cleared Monday's high and last week's 158.58 prior high to a 158.84 session high, with weak Japanese data adding to yen softness. Price sits about 50 pips above EMA(20) at 158.31, RSI(14) is overbought at 76.8 after a near-unbroken run from the mid-40s, and ATR has expanded to 16.3 pips, while the 159.00 round number is the area flagged for MOF intervention risk.
Support: 158.58, 158.31, 157.67
Resistance: 158.84, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.58 prior high would turn the CPI breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 158.84 session high or 159.00 round number, with RSI turning down from overbought, would mark the move as stalling
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC: a 50bp December framing could extend the move, a 25bp framing could unwind the CPI bounce
MOF verbal warnings or intervention near 159 could reverse the move sharply
A pullback that holds the ema20 near 158.31 keeps the higher-lows sequence from the 157.67 week low intact
Range break above 158.58 after higher low at 157.87.
USD/JPY opened the week with a gap down to 158.31 and held a 157.67–158.12 band through Monday and Tuesday's Asia and London sessions. The hot US CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove the first hour of NY through Friday's 158.58 range top to a 158.84 session high, a 117-pip move off the Monday weekly low. EMA(20) has crossed above EMA(50), and RSI(14) is overbought at 75.7 after cycling 43–58 earlier in the window. Weak Japanese data added to the move, while intervention risk near the 159.00 round number sits overhead.
Support: 158.579, 158.259, 157.668
Resistance: 158.843, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.58 range top would turn the range break into a false break
Close above the 158.84 session high exposes the 159.00 round number, where MOF intervention rhetoric is the cap
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; a 25bp-only framing risks unwinding the CPI leg
Loss of ema20 at 158.26 would put the higher-low line and the 157.67 weekly low back in focus
Range break above 158.25, then above last week's 158.58 high.
The week opened near 158.31. Monday and Tuesday's Asia and London sessions held a 157.67–158.25 range, with the week low set late Monday and higher lows forming since. The hot US October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke the range in the first hour of NY, carrying price through the 158.55–158.58 prior high to a week high near 158.73, on top of yen weakness from soft Japanese data. Price sits well above EMA(20) at 158.21 and EMA(50) at 158.14, which have both turned higher. RSI(14) has climbed from the mid-40s to an overbought 73.9, and ATR has expanded to 16.8 pips from 14.2.
Support: 158.55, 158.206, 157.668
Resistance: 158.728, 159.00
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 158.55 prior high would mark the CPI move as a false break and reopen the old range
Pullbacks toward the cpi leg fib 50% near 158.18 overlap ema20 at 158.21, the first test of whether the breakout holds
The 159.00 psych level is where MOF intervention rhetoric has been flagged as a cap on the week high extension
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on the 25 vs 50bp December question could extend or unwind the CPI move
A break of the higher lows line from Monday's 157.67 week low would undo the recovery structure
Higher lows since Monday's 157.67 low; CPI push through range top.
USD/JPY spent Monday and early Tuesday pinned in a 157.67–158.58 range, building higher lows off the week low. The hot US CPI beat (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%) on top of weak Japanese data drove a NY-session break above the range top to a 158.70 CPI high, right at the 200dma area flagged in the digest. RSI(14) has run from 45 to 73.8, now overbought, and ATR is expanding off 14.2 pips, while EMA(20) at 158.155 has turned up above EMA(50).
Support: 158.58, 158.155, 157.668
Resistance: 158.701, 159.04
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 158.58 range top would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance above the 158.70 CPI high exposes the 159.04 cap, where intervention risk is cited
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could reprice the 25 vs 50bp hike debate
Loss of the higher-lows line and EMA(20) at 158.155 returns focus to the 157.67 week low
14:02 UTC
Range, turning higher on hot CPI · RSI 70 · price 158.515
Higher lows off Monday's low, now testing week high inside the window range.
USD/JPY opened the week lower at 158.31 and slid through Monday's London and NY sessions to a 157.67 week low. Tuesday's London session then printed higher lows, helped by Waller's 50bp-hike remarks and weak Japanese data. The hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) in early NY hours lifted price through the ema20/ema50 cluster near 158.10 to a 158.55 week high. EMA(20) has just crossed above EMA(50), ATR has expanded to 16.3 pips and RSI(14) sits at 69.8, just short of 70. The rally fib off Monday's low places its 50% level at that EMA cluster, with the 158.67 prior high from Wednesday capping the window's range and the 159.00 round number above.
Support: 158.10, 157.87, 157.67
Resistance: 158.55, 158.67, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.67 prior high breaks the range top in place since Wednesday. The 159.00 round number is where the digest flags intervention risk.
A drop back under the ema20 at 158.10, which lines up with the 50% level of the rally fib, would mark the CPI push through the week high as a false break.
Break below the 157.87 tuesday low ends the higher-lows sequence off the 157.67 week low.
Pending CPI YoY figures and Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
157.67–158.58 range since Friday; higher lows building on Tuesday.
Monday's oil- and yield-led dollar drop took USDJPY from the 158.525 Monday high to the 157.668 Monday low. Since then higher lows have formed: soft Japanese data in Asia put price back above 158.00, and the London session extended it to today's high at 158.251, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Monday decline. Price sits above both a flat ema20 (158.056) and EMA(50) (158.073), RSI(14) has recovered from 34 to 57 and ATR(14) has compressed to 14.2 pips ahead of US CPI, with the week open at 158.306 capping the recovery and the Tuesday low at 157.871 the nearest swing floor.
Support: 158.056, 157.871, 157.668
Resistance: 158.251, 158.306, 158.525
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read within the next bar
H1 close above the 158.306 week open brings the 158.525 Monday high back into view
Failure to hold the 157.871 Tuesday low breaks the higher lows sequence; below the 157.668 Monday low the range floor gives way
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 20:30 and 23:30 UTC may extend the post-CPI move
157.67–158.53 weekly range, higher lows since Monday's trough.
USDJPY has held a 157.67–158.53 range since Monday's open. Monday's NY-session slide to the week low came as oil and Treasury yields fell, and price has since retraced through the London morning after a string of Japanese data misses, with Tuesday's lows near the 157.85 range base forming higher lows above that trough. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of Monday's drop near 158.20, above a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) pair at 158.04–158.07, with RSI(14) recovering from 34 to 58 and ATR(14) compressing to 14.7 pips into US CPI.
Support: 158.068, 157.85, 157.668
Resistance: 158.20, 158.528, 158.67
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 158.20 opens the path to the 158.53 prior close from Friday's NY session
Prior high at 158.67 sits just below the 158.70–159.04 intervention-sensitive zone, where supply has capped advances
Failure to hold the ema50 at 158.07 returns price to the 157.85 range base; a break of the higher lows line and the 157.67 week low would mark a range break lower
Higher lows vs lower highs inside 157.67–158.53 weekly band.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.67–158.53 band since Sunday's weekly open at 158.27, with Monday's NY-session slide to the 157.67 Monday low tracking the oil- and yield-driven dollar selloff. Weak Japanese household spending in the Asia session lifted the pair back above EMA(20) at 158.03, and today's low at 157.86 extends a higher-low sequence while today's high at 158.16 presses the lower-highs line from the 158.53 week high, near the 50% retracement of Monday's drop. RSI(14) at 55 sits mid-range and ATR(14) has compressed from 18 to 15 pips, a coiling read into US CPI.
Support: 158.029, 157.859, 157.667
Resistance: 158.162, 158.271, 158.529
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 158.27 weekly open breaks the converging structure, with the 158.53 week high next
Failure to hold today's low at 157.86 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.67 Monday low
Loss of EMA(20) at 158.03 on a closing basis returns price to the lower half of the week's range
Fed's Bowman and Paulson late in the NY session could extend any post-CPI move
USD/JPY has traded below the 158.27 week open all week, inside a 157.67–158.53 range. Monday's late NY-hours slide to the mon low at 157.67 has since been reversed, with the pair back above 158.00 during the Asia session as soft Japan household spending and Eco Watchers data weighed on the yen. Price is back above flat, tightly bunched EMA(20) and EMA(50) at roughly the 50% retracement of the monday drop, and a line of lower highs from the week high is converging with higher lows off Monday's low. RSI(14) at 54 and ATR(14) easing to 15.7 pips show the pair coiling into US CPI.
Support: 158.018, 157.872, 157.667
Resistance: 158.162, 158.271, 158.529
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the tue high and lower highs line near 158.16 opens the week open at 158.27 and the week high at 158.53
A lost ema20 at 158.02 and a break of the tue low at 157.87 return focus to the higher lows line and the mon low at 157.67
Break below the mon low at 157.67 marks a range break lower; 158.53–158.68 is the intervention-sensitive zone flagged in the digest
Lower highs from 158.53, compressing in a 157.87–158.12 band above the 157.67 week low.
USD/JPY has faded from the 158.53 week high printed at Monday's open, putting in lower highs through Monday and a late-NY week low at 157.67 as Iran de-escalation dragged oil and US yields lower. Since then price has compressed between the 157.87 Asian low and 158.12, around the 50% retracement of Friday's NFP leg, with ATR(14) easing to 15.2 pips and RSI(14) at 45.4. The last close sits just below a flattening EMA(20) at 158.01 and the ema50 at 158.06, with the forming bar testing both.
Support: 157.87, 157.667, 157.256
Resistance: 158.058, 158.271, 158.529
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to the 157.87–158.12 consolidation and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema50 and the 158.27 weekly open would break the lower-high sequence from the 158.53 week high
Failure to hold the 157.87 Asian low exposes the 157.67 week low, then the 157.26 Friday low at the base of the NFP leg
Waller speech at 09:00 UTC could move the pair before the CPI release
Lower highs off the week open compressing into a 157.87–158.12 range.
The week opened at 158.27 with a gap below Friday's 158.51 close. The oil and Iran-led USD selloff then printed the week low at 157.667 during Monday's NY session. That extended the fade of Friday's post-NFP high at 158.58. Weak Japan household spending lifted the pair in the Asia session, but the bounce stalled at the 158.12 Asia high, roughly the 50% retracement of the NFP fade, under a lower-highs line from Monday's open. Price is now pinned just below a flat EMA(20) at 158.015 and under the EMA(50) at 158.063. RSI(14) sits at 48.9 and ATR has compressed from 18 to 15.1 pips into CPI.
Support: 157.872, 157.667, 157.256
Resistance: 158.063, 158.123, 158.271
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the likely trigger to resolve the 157.87–158.12 range
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC could move USD before CPI
H1 close above the 158.12 Asia high and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence and puts the 158.27 week open back in view
Failure to hold the 157.87 Asia low exposes the 157.667 week low, then the 157.256 prior-wk low
Sustained trade back above the EMA50 at 158.063 would shift the read from fade to range
Lower highs since weekly open, base at 157.85 with Monday low below.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 158.271 weekly open and the 158.529 week high. Monday's London and NY sessions held a base near 157.85 before the NY-hours drop to the 157.667 Monday low, as the dollar slipped on Iran de-escalation and lower yields. The Asia rebound on weak Japan data stalled at 158.12, near the 50% retrace of Monday's drop, and price now sits just under a flat EMA(20) at 158.016 and the declining ema50 at 158.065, with RSI(14) at 48.8 and ATR compressing to 15.2 pips into CPI.
Support: 157.85, 157.667, 157.256
Resistance: 158.065, 158.271, 158.529
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (in ~6.5h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is the earlier risk
H1 close above the 158.271 weekly open breaks the lower-high trendline and the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 157.85 monday base exposes the 157.667 monday low
A break of the monday low opens the path to the 157.256 swing low from late Thursday
Reclaim of the ema50 at 158.065 with RSI above 52 would mark the first higher high since the open
Lower highs from Monday high vs higher lows off week low.
USD/JPY has given back most of Friday's NFP pop since Monday's open. Oil- and geopolitics-driven USD softness carved a series of lower highs from the 158.53 Monday high, and a NY-session dip to the 157.67 Monday low held below the 61.8% of the NFP leg but well above the 157.26 week low. Asia dip-buying on weak Japan data has lifted price to 158.04, just above a flat ema20 (158.016) and the ema50 (158.067) and pressing the lower-highs line and the asia high, while RSI(14) has recovered from 34.5 to 52 and ATR has compressed from 18.7 to 15.2 pips.
Support: 158.016, 157.667, 157.256
Resistance: 158.123, 158.529, 158.666
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y), with Waller at 09:00 UTC first, could materially shift this read and break the compression
H1 close above the 158.12 asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.53 monday high
A return below the ema20 at 158.016 and then the 157.67 monday low exposes the higher-lows line and the 157.26 week low
The 158.67 week high marks the top of the week's range; intervention commentary is flagged in the 158.68–159.04 zone
05:02 UTC
Drifting lower inside a broader 157.26–158.67 range · RSI 44 · price 157.962
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open, mid-range.
The week opened at 158.27, below Friday's 158.51 close, and has printed lower highs since: the 158.53 Monday high, 158.19 in NY Monday and the 158.12 Asia high today. A late-NY drop set the 157.67 Monday low. Tuesday's weak Japan data lifted the pair briefly above 158.00, but the bounce stalled at the lower-highs trendline, and price is back under EMA(20) near 157.99 with RSI(14) at 44. Price sits at the 50% retracement of Friday's NFP-driven rally from the 157.26 prior-week low, still inside the 157.26–158.67 range.
Support: 157.67, 157.26
Resistance: 158.12, 158.27, 158.53
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read: a hot core print could reopen the weekly open at 158.27 and the 158.53 Monday high, while a soft one targets the 157.67 Monday low
Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift December hike pricing ahead of CPI
An H1 close above the 158.12 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the drift lower
Failure to hold the 157.67 Monday low puts the 61.8% NFP rally fib and the 157.26 prior-week low back in play
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 157.26–158.67 range.
USDJPY has held a 157.26–158.67 range since Wednesday. Lows have risen from Thursday's risk-off week low at 157.26, while highs have stepped lower since the post-NFP spike to 158.58 faded and Monday's open stalled at 158.53. Monday's NY slide to 157.67 on a softer USD and Iran-deal headlines held above the higher-lows line, and today's Asia bounce on Japan's household spending miss capped at 158.12. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 158.01, close to the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Friday rally, with RSI(14) flat at about 46.
Support: 157.67, 157.26
Resistance: 158.01, 158.12, 158.58
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h), preceded by Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 158.12 asia high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression and opens the path to the 158.58 nfp high
Failure to hold the 157.67 monday low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.26 week low
Repeated rejection at EMA(20) near 158.01 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
03:03 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 49 · price 158.028
Lower highs vs higher lows, price mid-range on EMA20.
USDJPY is coiling between lower highs from Wednesday's 158.67 peak and higher lows from the 157.26 Thursday low, with price pinned to EMA(20) near 158.02 and RSI(14) flat around 48. Monday's yen bid on hawkish BoJ minutes and falling UST yields retraced about 70% of the NFP rally to a 157.67 week low in NY afternoon trade. Dismal Japanese household spending in Asia today lifted the pair back above 158.00, with the Monday NY high at 158.19, the weekly open at 158.27 and the 158.53 week high capping overhead.
Support: 157.85, 157.67, 157.26
Resistance: 158.19, 158.27, 158.53
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC precedes it
H1 close above the 158.53 week high clears the lower-highs trendline and breaks the contracting range
Loss of the 157.85 twin lows exposes the 157.67 week low and the higher-lows trendline
H1 close below 157.67 confirms a range break toward the 157.26 Thursday low
Monday gapped down to a 158.22 weekly open and failed below the 158.53 week high. It then printed a series of lower highs through London and NY, with oil and US yields sliding on Iran headlines, and tagged the 157.67 weekly low late in NY. That low held near the 61.8–70% retracement of Friday's NFP leg off the 157.25 friday low. Weak Japan household spending lifted the pair back above 158.00 in the Asia session, and price now sits just above the ema20 and at the 38.2% fib, testing the lower-highs trendline from below. The pair remains capped under EMA(50), with RSI(14) a neutral 53.
Support: 157.99, 157.67, 157.25
Resistance: 158.22, 158.53, 158.67
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 158.22 weekly open breaks Monday's sequence and reopens 158.53 week high / 158.67 prior high
Slip back below the ema20 near 158.00 keeps the lower-high structure intact; losing the 157.67 weekly low exposes the 157.25 friday low
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11.5h), with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since week open · RSI 53 · price 158.053
Lower highs inside a 157.25–158.67 range.
The week opened with a 31-pip gap down to 158.22 from Friday's 158.53 close. Monday's sessions then printed lower highs at 158.53 and 158.19 as a softer dollar on oil and Iran de-escalation, plus lower US yields, weighed on the pair. The NY-session drop to the 157.67 week low overshot the 61.8% retracement of the 157.25 swing low to 158.58 NFP leg before demand stepped in. Price has since recovered to 158.05 at the 38.2% level, just above EMA20 (~157.99), with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and still below the lower-highs line and the week open.
Support: 157.99, 157.67, 157.25
Resistance: 158.22, 158.53, 158.67
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 158.22 week open would expose the 158.53 week high and the 158.67 prior high
Failure to hold EMA20 and then the 157.67 week low would put the 157.25 swing low back in play
Contracting 157.25–158.67 range; lower highs vs higher lows.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.25–158.67 band since Wednesday. Friday's NFP leg to the 158.58 nfp high has been unwound as oil and front-end yields slid: Monday gapped about 30 pips below Friday's close, held a London base near 157.85, then capped at the 158.19 NY high before a late-NY dip to the 157.67 Monday low. Price now sits just under EMA(20) at 158.02 with RSI(14) near 48, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NFP leg, and the lower highs and higher lows are compressing the range.
Support: 157.85, 157.67, 157.25
Resistance: 158.02, 158.19, 158.58
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could break the contracting range in either direction
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 158.19 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.58 nfp high
Failure of the 157.85 London base and the 157.67 Monday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.25 week low
Range-top area near 158.58–158.67 to watch for rejection or break