USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:02 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below range top · RSI 46 · price 157.939
Lower highs from 158.77 against higher lows from 156.96, compressing range.
USDJPY has held a 156.96–158.77 range for about three weeks. Lower highs from the 158.77 range top (158.58 swing high, then a 158.19 lower high) are pressing against higher lows from the 156.96 range floor and the 157.25 weekly low, and the pair sits just under EMA20/EMA50, near the 50% retracement of the Friday NFP-driven leg. ATR(14) near 42 pips is contained rather than expanding, with the hawkish-BoJ yen bid and December Fed-hike pricing offsetting each other ahead of US CPI.
Support: 157.67, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.19, 158.58, 158.77
What it said to watch
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the swing factor; a soft core MoM print could take the pair through the 157.67 swing low toward the 157.25 weekly low
H4 close below 157.25 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 156.96 range floor in play
H4 close above the 158.19 lower high reopens the 158.58 swing high; acceptance above the 158.77 range top would end the range read, with the 158.68 200dma just beneath it
Fed Waller Tue 09:00 UTC could shift December hike pricing before CPI
157.25–158.77 range, lower highs vs higher lows, compressing.
Since the 156.96 prior low, USDJPY has held a series of higher lows, the latest being the 157.25 swing low, while highs have stepped down from the 158.77 range high to the 158.58 lower high. That leaves price coiling between converging trendlines, sitting under the EMA20 and on a flat EMA50, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 156.96–158.77 advance. The NFP beat lifted the pair off the lows, but softer USD tone and hawkish BoJ signals have kept rallies capped below 158.77, with ATR(14) near 42 pips and contracting.
Support: 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77
What it said to watch
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and is the likely catalyst for a break of the coil
H4 close below the 157.25 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 156.96 prior low
H4 close above the 158.58 lower high and the 158.77 range high invalidates the range read
Japanese official rhetoric on the yen if price approaches the 158.77 range high
Contracting range 157.25–158.77 after recovery from 156.96.
Since the 156.96 swing low, the pair has carved higher lows into a ceiling of lower highs near 158.55 off the 158.77 range high, compressing into a triangle-shaped consolidation. The NFP beat lifted price off the 157.25 weekly low, but each push toward 158.55 has faded. Price now sits back on the 50% retracement of the 156.96–158.77 leg, just below both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 39 pips and RSI flat around mid-range.
Support: 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.55, 158.77
What it said to watch
H4 close above the lower highs at 158.55 and then the 158.77 range high breaks the contraction to the upside
Failure to hold the 157.25 weekly low exposes the 156.96 swing low and breaks the higher-low sequence
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and resolve the range
Japan Q3 GDP on Nov 15 23:50 UTC is the next JPY-side catalyst for the range edges
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 157.951
Compressing range: rising lows against lower highs below 158.77.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.25–158.77 band since the late-October rebound from 156.08. Rising lows at 156.96 and the 157.25 weekly low are converging with lower highs off the 158.77 range high, so the structure is tightening. The strong NFP beat lifted price off the weekly low, but it stalled below the 158.58 lower highs. Hawkish BoJ signals keep a lid on the topside, and price now sits just under a flat ema20 and EMA50 near 158.00–158.15. ATR(14) near 42 pips reflects that compression, and the 38.2% fib of the 156.08–158.77 leg at 157.74 lines up with the swing lows around 157.65.
Support: 157.65, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.15, 158.58, 158.77
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.58 lower highs breaks the compression and puts the 158.77 range high in play
Failure to hold 157.65 swing lows exposes the 157.25 weekly low and the 50% fib near 157.42
A break of the range floor at 156.96 would end the higher-lows sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 near 158.15 would return price to the upper half of the range
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a slip below 158.00
Japan Q3 GDP Nov 15 23:50 UTC is the next JPY catalyst for a test of either range edge
Higher lows run from 156.08 through the 156.96 higher low to the 157.25 swing low. Highs have stalled in a 158.58 prior high to 158.77 swing high band, leaving a 157.25–158.77 range with a rising floor. Last week's slide from the swing high came on hawkish BoJ minutes and the hot wage print, and found demand under the fib 61.8 at 157.65. The blowout NFP then lifted the pair back to 158.30, where it sits mid-range above both EMAs, with RSI neutral and ATR(14) near 44 pips and narrowing in the latest bars.
Support: 157.65, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read in either direction
H4 close above the 158.77 swing high puts the 159.00 round number in play and breaks the range cap
Failure to hold the 157.25 swing low and the higher-low line near 157.50 breaks the rising-low sequence, exposing the 156.96 higher low
Repeated rejection at the 158.58 prior high keeps the range read intact
157.25-158.77 range; lower highs against higher lows, range contracting.
The upswing from the 156.96 prior low topped at the 158.77 range top on Tuesday. Hawkish BoJ minutes and the equity rout then knocked price back toward the range low at 157.25. Friday's 165K NFP beat sparked a rebound to the 158.58 swing high, but that print is another lower high, so the swing structure is compressing between a falling resistance line and rising higher lows. Price is holding just above the 158.00 round number with both EMAs flat and close together. ATR(14) near 46 pips is moderate, consistent with a market coiling inside the range rather than trending.
Support: 158.00, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.58 swing high and 158.77 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 159.00 psych level in play
Loss of the 158.00 round number brings the 61.8% retracement near 157.65 and the 157.25 range low back into view
Break below 157.25 range low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 156.96 prior low
US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a move toward 157.25
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, then Waller Tue, may move the USD leg ahead of CPI