Rising lows since 156.08 beneath a flat cap at 158.50-158.77.
USDJPY has carved rising lows from 156.08 to the 156.96 higher low and the 157.25 weekly low. Highs keep stalling in a cap cluster around 158.50-158.58, below Tuesday's 158.77 prior high, where hawkish BoJ minutes knocked the pair back. Friday's NFP beat lifted price off the 157.70 swing lows, which sit near the 61.8% of the late-October impulse. Price is above both EMAs and ATR(14) is moderate near 46 pips, so the coil inside the 157.00-159.00 range is still intact.
Support: 157.70, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.77 prior high would leave the 159.00 range top as the last cap
Break below the 157.25 weekly low would cut the rising lows and expose the 156.96 higher low
Failure to hold the 157.70 swing lows would put the fib's deeper retracement back in play
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, with Waller earlier that day, could materially shift this read
Risk-off from the AI-led equity selloff, with falling JGB yields, could revive the haven yen bid at the lower range edge
19:23 UTC
Sideways-to-higher, rising lows inside a range · RSI 55 · price 158.528
Higher lows since 156.08; highs capped 158.50-158.77.
The higher-low line from the 156.08 late-October low through the 156.96 swing low and the 157.25 weekly low is still intact, but every push since Tuesday has stalled between 158.50 and the 158.77 week high. Hawkish BoJ minutes knocked the pair off that peak, and Thursday's dip briefly undercut the 157.40 pivot before reversing, a false break. The NFP beat then carried price back to the 158.58 Friday high, above both EMAs with EMA20 holding over EMA50. ATR(14) near 46 pips is mid-regime, neither compressing nor expanding, which fits a 157.25-159.00 range with a rising floor.
Support: 158.08, 157.25, 156.96
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 158.77 week high puts the 159.00 range top in play; a sustained move above 159.00 would mark a regime shift
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib near 158.08 returns price to the middle of the range
A break of the 157.25 weekly low would breach the higher-low line and expose the 156.96 swing low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller earlier that day and Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday, could materially shift this read
Further risk-off from the AI-led equity selloff would add haven demand for JPY against the range floor