Lower highs vs rising lows since Friday; compressing under 158.58.
The weekly high at 158.77 printed late Tuesday in NY hours. Hawkish BoJ minutes knocked price to 157.40 in that Asia session, and Thursday's NY-open tech selloff extended the slide to the 157.25 weekly low. Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove the rebound to the 158.58 nfp high, and the 158.00 nfp low held near the 38.2% retrace of that leg. Sunday's open gapped down to 158.21 but has mostly filled, with price back above EMA(20) near 158.30 and RSI(14) around 58. Highs are stepping lower from 158.77 while lows rise from 157.25, compressing price inside the week's range.
Support: 158.30, 158.00, 157.25
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.58 nfp high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 158.77 weekly high and 159.00 range top
Loss of EMA(20) at 158.30 and then the 158.00 nfp low would break the rising-lows line and reopen the 157.25 weekly low
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Mon, then Waller and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Equity risk-off deepening into Monday would test whether the rising lows hold
157.25–158.77 weekly range; Friday higher lows off a false break of the weekly low.
Tuesday's run to the 158.77 week high reversed early Wednesday on the hawkish BoJ minutes. A sharp NY-session selloff Thursday then extended into Friday's Asia open, briefly undercutting Wednesday's low at the 157.25 weekly low before reversing, a false break. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove Friday's leg to the 158.58 nfp high, clearing the Tue–Thu lower highs line. The pullback held the 158.00 nfp dip low, near the 38.2% fib of the Friday impulse, and price closed the week near 158.53, above EMA(20) at ~158.25 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 158.25, 158.00, 157.25
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.58 nfp high exposes the 158.77 week high and the 159.00 range top
Return below ema20 and the 158.00 nfp dip low would put price back in the range middle
Break of the 157.25 weekly low would invalidate the Friday higher-lows read
Monday open: AI-led equity risk-off could revive the haven JPY bid; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
157.25–158.77 range with lower highs since Tuesday and higher lows on Friday.
USDJPY has rotated inside a 157.25–158.77 range since Tuesday's NY-session week high. Hawkish BoJ minutes and Thursday's NY selloff produced a run of lower highs, and price printed the week low at 157.25 in Friday's Asian session. The blowout NFP drove an impulse to the 158.58 nfp high, and the pullback held a higher low near 158.00 before price closed back above the ema20 around 158.30, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 158.30, 158.00, 157.25
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.77 week high would break the lower highs line and reopen the 159.00 range top
Failure to hold the 158.00 higher low breaks Friday's higher lows and returns focus to the 157.25 week low
A move back below the ema20 near 158.30 would mark the NFP impulse as fading inside the range
Fed speakers on Monday and US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.25–158.77 range; higher lows since Friday, lower highs since Tuesday.
Tuesday's 158.77 week high gave way when the hawkish BoJ minutes knocked the pair to 157.40 in Wednesday's Asia session. Thursday's NY selloff and Friday's Asian dip then marked the 157.25 week low. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove a Friday NY rally to the 158.58 nfp high, and the 158.00 higher low held on the pullback. Price closed the week at 158.53, above EMA(20) near 158.30, with RSI(14) near 62, and is pressing the lower-highs line drawn from Tuesday's peak.
Support: 158.30, 158.00, 157.25
Resistance: 158.58, 158.77, 159.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.77 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 159.00 range top
Loss of the 158.00 higher low breaks Friday's higher-lows line and reopens the 157.25 week low
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 158.30 keep the Friday nfp rally structure intact
Fed speakers Monday (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and an AI-led equity risk-off at the Monday open could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
157.25–158.77 range; higher lows since Friday under lower highs.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.25–158.77 range since Tuesday's London-to-NY rally set the week high. The hawkish BoJ minutes drove a sharp Asia-session drop on Wednesday, and a NY-session slide on Thursday followed, but demand stepped in above the 157.25 week low both times. Friday's blowout NFP extended the rebound off that low, and the post-NFP low at 158.00 held near 38.2% of Friday's rebound. Price closed above the ema20 at 158.29 with RSI(14) near 64, while supply has capped successively lower highs at the week high, the wed high and the nfp high, leaving the close pressed against that lower-highs line.
Support: 158.29, 158.00, 157.25
Resistance: 158.58, 158.67, 158.77
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.58 nfp high and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.67 wed high and 158.77 week high
Loss of the ema20 at 158.29, then the 158.00 post-nfp low, breaks Friday's higher-lows sequence
A break of the 157.25 week low invalidates the range read
Fed speakers Mon, Waller and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read