Weekly-open gap down, failed gap fill at 158.525, fresh session low at Sunday open.
Early Asia session opened with a 22-pip gap down to 158.306 from Friday's 158.528 close. The bounce was rejected at 158.525, the session high and just shy of a full gap fill, and price is back below the Sunday open at 158.29. That sits at the 50% fib of Friday's late NFP-driven leg from 157.997, with RSI(14) near 37 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 158.18, 158.00
Resistance: 158.306, 158.525, 158.579
What it said to watch
A close back above the Sunday open and then 158.525 completes the gap fill and puts the 158.579 nfp high back in play
A close below the 158.18 swing low (61.8% fib) opens the 158.00 round number, Friday's 157.997 low
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC and the Tokyo open could add range; equity risk tone remains the larger JPY driver
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday could shift the USD side of this read
23:32 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pausing below gap fill · RSI 49 · price 158.459
Asian range 158.31–158.53 forming inside Friday's NY rally after a weekend gap.
The Monday Asia session opened with a 22-pip gap below Friday's 158.53 close. The 158.31 gap low held near the 38.2% retrace of the Friday NY rally from 157.997, which was the leg that followed the 165K NFP beat. Price has reclaimed most of the gap and probed 158.525 before stalling just shy of the gap fill. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 6–7 pips in thin early-session trade.
Support: 158.31, 158.11, 158.00
Resistance: 158.53, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 gap fill re-exposes the 158.58 nfp high from Friday's NY session
Failure to hold the 158.31 gap low opens the 158.11 swing low, then the 158.00 round number
Deeper equity risk-off into the Monday open could revive haven yen demand against the Friday NY rally
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak later Monday and could shift the read on US yields
23:16 UTC
Post-NFP recovery, stalling at weekly open · RSI 46 · price 158.437
Weekend gap down to 158.31 partly filled; capped at Friday close 158.53.
Friday's NFP beat spiked USDJPY to the 158.58 nfp high, faded to a 158.00 swing low, then recovered into a 158.53 fri close. The Asia session weekly open gapped about 22 pips lower to the 158.31 gap low. Price has filled most of the gap but met rejection at the fri close, in thin early-Asia liquidity.
Support: 158.31, 158.00
Resistance: 158.53, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.53 fri close fills the gap and puts the 158.58 nfp high back in focus
Loss of the 158.31 gap low, near the 38.2% fib of the post-NFP rally, exposes the 158.00 swing low
Break of the higher-low trendline from 157.69 shifts the intraday read to a lower-low
AI-led equity moves at the Monday open and Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin could materially shift this read
23:08 UTC
Intraday uptrend into the Friday close, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 158.528
Post-NFP V-recovery; late-NY compression just under the NFP high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked price to a 158.58 NFP high. The move then faded to a 158.00 swing low before late NY retraced it entirely along a rising late-NY trendline. The week closed at 158.53 inside a tight 158.45–158.54 band, with RSI(14) near 63 and the London high at 158.37 now below price.
Support: 158.45, 158.37, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
A Monday open above the 158.58 NFP high brings the 159.00 range top into view
Loss of the 158.45 late low breaks the late-NY trendline and puts the London high at 158.37 back in play
Failure at 158.37 reopens the 158.00 swing low, the 61.8% area of the late-NY rally fib
Weekend AI-equity risk-off could gap the Asia session open lower via a JPY haven bid
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday; Japan Current Account is due Mon 23:50 UTC
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, closing near session high · RSI 72 · price 158.528
Post-NFP higher lows; tight late-NY drift under NFP high.
The blowout NFP spike to the 158.58 NFP high faded to a 158.00 post-NFP low during NY hours. Price then ground higher along a rising trendline and closed the week at 158.53, just under the NFP high. RSI(14) sits near 72 and ATR has compressed to about 6.5 pips into the close.
Support: 158.45, 158.30, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.58 NFP high opens the path to the 159.00 range top
A break of the 158.45 late NY low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 158.30 pivot
Failure to hold the 158.00 post-NFP low unwinds the post-payrolls recovery
The Monday reopen carries gap risk from weekend AI-equity sentiment; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon
Higher lows into the weekly close, tight range under 158.58.
The beat on NFP spiked the pair to the 158.579 nfp high before it faded to a 157.997 ny low. A late NY grind then recovered to 158.53, closing the week just under the spike. The session built higher lows at 157.254, the 157.689 london low and 157.997, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR down to about 8 pips as the range compressed into the close.
Support: 158.30, 157.997, 157.689
Resistance: 158.579, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.579 nfp high opens the 158.74–159.00 range top zone
Loss of the 158.30 pre-nfp base puts the 157.997 ny low back in play; a break there undercuts the rising lows
Weekly open gap risk if the AI-led equity rout deepens; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday
Break of the 157.689 london low invalidates the higher-low sequence
21:16 UTC
Uptrend, closing week near session high · RSI 71 · price 158.528
Higher lows from 158.00 NY low, tight 158.45–158.54 consolidation into Friday close.
After the early-Asia low at 157.25, the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked USD/JPY to the 158.58 nfp high at 13:30 UTC. NY then sold back to the 158.00 ny low before a higher-low climb that ended at 158.53. Late NY compressed into a 158.45–158.54 consolidation just under the spike high, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR down to about 7 pips. The NY swing fib places 61.8% near 158.20.
Support: 158.45, 158.20, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
Monday Asia open: a gap or sustained move above the 158.58 nfp high exposes the 158.74 tue high and the 159.00 range top
A break below the 158.45 consol low turns the late range into a pullback toward the 61.8% fib near 158.20
Loss of the 158.00 ny low would undo the post-NFP higher-low sequence
Weekend AI-equity risk-off headlines and Monday's Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could reset the open
21:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling into Friday close · RSI 60 · price 158.528
Higher lows off 158.00; tight 158.45–158.54 range just below NFP spike high.
The NFP beat spiked USD/JPY to the 158.58 nfp high at 13:30 UTC. Price was rejected there, faded to the 158.10 post-nfp low and briefly probed the 158.00 round number mid-NY. The late-NY recovery off that low has held a rising line and a 158.45 micro low, and Friday closes in a ~9-pip range just under the spike high, well above the 157.25 Asian low.
Support: 158.448, 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.579, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the 158.74 tue high and 159.00 range top
Break of the 158.45 micro low and the late-NY rising line exposes the 158.10 post-nfp low, then the 158.00 round number
Monday Asia open: AI equity rout and Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin could gap price away from the Friday close
Japan Current Account Mon 23:50 UTC is medium impact; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
20:57 UTC
Intraday uptrend, late-NY grind into the close · RSI 60 · price 158.528
Higher lows at 157.69 (London) and 158.00 (NY); price pressing the NFP high.
Friday's rally off the 157.25 Asian low peaked at the 158.58 NFP high after the payrolls beat, faded to the 158.00 NY low, then ground back late NY to close at 158.53, just under the NFP high. The rising-lows line from London through NY is intact, the 158.21–158.37 london shelf sits below, and ATR has compressed to ~8 pips into the weekend close.
Support: 158.448, 158.30, 157.997
Resistance: 158.579, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.58 nfp high opens 158.74 (tue high) and the 159.00 range top
A break below the 158.45 late-ny low returns price to the 158.30 london shelf
Loss of the 158.00 ny low breaks the rising lows and the 38.2% fib of the Asia low–NFP high leg
Monday open gap risk from the AI-led equity rout, plus Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Mon
20:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening into the close · RSI 64 · price 158.528
Higher lows off the post-NFP 157.997 low; tight 158.45–158.54 box just under the NFP high.
The blowout NFP spiked USD/JPY to 158.58 before it faded to a 157.997 post-NFP low. The late NY leg then ground back up into a tight 158.45–158.54 box into the weekly close. Price holds above the late-NY trendline and the 158.30 pre-NFP base, with the NFP high still capping and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 158.45, 158.30, 158.00
Resistance: 158.58, 158.74, 159.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.58 nfp high opens the 158.74 tue high and the 159.00 range top
Loss of the 158.45 box low and the late-NY trendline puts the 158.30 pre-nfp base back in focus
A break of the 158.00 post-nfp low unwinds the late NY leg and the NFP rebound
Monday Asia open: weekend AI/equity risk-off could gap price; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon
19:23 UTC
Uptrend, retesting NFP high · RSI 60 · price 158.528
Higher lows off the 158.00 NY low, capped under the 158.58 NFP spike high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) spiked the pair to the 158.579 nfp high. The NY fade then found the 158.00 ny low, between the 38.2% and 50% of the day rally from 157.25. Higher lows since have carried price back to retest that high into the Friday close, in a thin 158.45–158.54 late-session range above the 158.30 pivot.
Support: 158.45, 158.30, 158.00
Resistance: 158.579, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.579 nfp high opens the path toward the 159.00 range top
Break of the 158.45 late low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 158.30 pivot back in play
Loss of the 158.00 ny low negates the post-NFP higher-low structure and the day rally fib comes into focus
Monday Asia open carries gap risk; Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon and could materially shift this read