USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday down, recovering off the lows · RSI 58 · price 158.012
Higher lows off 157.67, retesting 158.00–158.06.
USD/JPY broke below Monday's Asian range in London, then dropped to a 157.67 day low late in NY hours as the dollar gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and yields. Early Asia has built a chain of rising lows back to the 158.00 round number, above the 61.8% retracement of the 158.19 NY high to day low drop. Price is now pressing the 158.06 range top that capped the pre-drop consolidation.
Support: 157.93, 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.06, 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.06 range top opens the path to the 158.19 NY high, with the 158.39 Asia high above
Loss of the rising lows trendline and the 157.93 fib 50% puts the 157.86 rollover low back in play
Break of 157.67 day low would extend the lower-low sequence
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC ahead of Tuesday's 13:30 UTC US CPI could shift this read
Lower lows into 157.67, higher-low recovery basing under 158.00.
USDJPY printed lower lows from the 158.39 Asia high through London and NY as the dollar gave back post-NFP gains on softer oil and yields, with a late-NY flush to the 157.67 day low. The rebound has retraced past 50% of the 158.19 NY high to day low drop. It is basing on a rising trendline above the 157.86 rollover low and pressing the 158.00 round number and EMA50 in thin pre-Tokyo trade.
Support: 157.86, 157.67
Resistance: 158.00, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number and the 61.8% retrace puts the 158.19 NY high back in focus
Break of the 157.86 rollover low and the rising trendline exposes the 157.67 day low
Japan current account at 23:50 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 157.668, capped at 157.955 rebound high.
London broke below the Asian range near 158.13. Late NY extended to a 157.668 session low as oil and US yields slid, then price recovered back above the london lows to the 50% retrace of the 158.187–157.668 drop. Higher lows are holding along a rising trendline, but the 157.955 rebound high is capping into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 157.85, 157.668
Resistance: 157.955, 158.065, 158.187
What it said to watch
Close above the 157.955 rebound high opens the 158.065 lower high and the 158.187 NY high
Break of the rising trendline and the london lows near 157.85 reopens the 157.668 session low
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC, Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.19 NY high; late-NY flush below the London low reclaimed, now capped at the 50% fib.
A late-NY selloff ran through the 157.85 London low to the 157.67 NY low as oil and yields slid on Iran ceasefire hopes. The rebound has stalled at the 50% fib of the NY high-low move near 157.95 into the Asia open. Price is sitting on EMA20, RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR is near 6 pips.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 157.95, 158.06, 158.19
What it said to watch
A close above the 50% fib at 157.95 opens the pre-drop top at 158.06
Failure to hold the London low at 157.85 puts the NY low at 157.67 back in play
A reclaim of the NY high at 158.19 would end the lower-high sequence
Japan current account at 23:50 UTC, Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI on Tue at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs all day; false break below 157.85, now compressing 157.86–157.95.
London broke the Asian range low near 158.13. NY's rally then capped at the 158.19 ny high before a late-NY leg on falling oil and yields swept the 157.85 london low to a 157.67 session low. Price has reclaimed 157.85 on a rising recovery line and is compressing under the 157.95 bounce high, near the 50% retrace of the NY high-to-session-low drop and just below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 157.955, 158.06, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.85 london low and the recovery line reopens the 157.67 session low
M15 close above the 157.95 bounce high exposes the 158.06 ny shelf, then the 158.19 ny high
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC ahead of Tuesday's 13:30 UTC US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; stalling under the bounce high at rollover.
USDJPY broke below the 158.13 Asian low at London open and has printed lower highs since. The late-NY drop to the 157.668 session low came as US yields slid and Iran ceasefire headlines weighed on the dollar. Price has retraced to the 50% of that move and is stalling under the 157.951 bounce high and EMA20 into a thin post-rollover Asia session, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.847, 157.668
Resistance: 157.951, 158.065, 158.187
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 157.951 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.065 pre-drop top
Failure to hold the 157.85 london low (London and NY-open floor) exposes the 157.668 session low
An M15 close above the 158.187 ny high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Japan current account 23:50 UTC and Waller 09:00 UTC, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 158.52; late-NY break of 157.85 lows, shallow bounce capped at 157.95.
Lower highs since the 158.52 Asian-open high. London broke the Asian low, and late NY then cut through the 157.85 prior lows to a 157.67 session low as softer US yields and oil weighed on USD. The bounce stalled at 157.95, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the NY high-to-low leg, and price is easing back toward 157.85 into rollover, below both EMAs.
Support: 157.85, 157.668
Resistance: 157.951, 158.06, 158.187
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.85 prior lows reopens the 157.67 session low
Close above the 157.95 bounce high and 158.06 range top breaks the lower-high sequence; 158.19 NY high above
Japan current account 23:50 UTC is minor; Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.52 Asian high; false break of the 157.85 London low.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the 158.52 Asian high. A late-NY drop to the 157.67 day low, on softer yields and oil, briefly broke the 157.85 London low before price reclaimed it. The bounce stalled at 157.95 (rebound high), near the 50% retrace of the drop, into the Asia session with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 157.848, 157.668
Resistance: 157.951, 158.065, 158.187
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.85 london low reopens the 157.67 day low
Close above the 157.95 rebound high and the 158.06 range top tests the lower-highs trendline; 158.19 ny high is next
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Japan current account at 23:50 UTC is a minor Asia-session risk
Lower highs under a falling trendline; 157.85 reclaimed after a dip to 157.67.
Lower highs since the Asia-session rejection at 158.52. London broke the Asian low, and the 157.85 prior lows held twice before a late-NY drop to a 157.67 day low as oil and US yields slid on US-Iran headlines. Price has since reclaimed 157.85 and sits at the 50% fib of the move off the 158.19 NY high, below the falling trendline and the 158.06 late-NY cap.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.06, 158.19
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 157.85 prior lows turns the reclaim into a false recovery and puts the 157.67 day low back in play
Close above the 158.06 late-NY cap and the falling trendline opens the 158.19 NY high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; late-NY sweep of London low reclaimed.
Lower highs held all session. London broke the Asian low near 158.13 and the NY-open rally faded at the 158.19 ny high. A late-NY flush as oil and Treasury yields slid took out the 157.85 london low to a 157.668 session low. Price has since reclaimed 157.85 and is stalling at the fib 50% near 157.93, below the descending trendline and the 158.06 breakdown, with liquidity thin after the NY close.
Support: 157.85, 157.668
Resistance: 157.928, 158.065, 158.187
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.85 london low reopens the 157.668 session low
M15 close above the 158.06 breakdown and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 158.19 ny high is next
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Sideways to lower, bouncing off late-NY low · RSI 48 · price 157.927
157.85–158.19 intraday range; late break lower reversed back inside.
The pair broke below the Asian range at London open and held a 157.85–158.19 band, with the 158.19 NY high rejected as softer US yields and oil weighed on the dollar. A late-NY flush to 157.67 failed to hold. Price is back above the London low, sitting on the EMA20 at the 50% fib of the NY high-to-low drop.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.06, 158.19
What it said to watch
Holding above the 157.85 london low keeps the late-NY drop a false break; losing it reopens the 157.67 session low
M15 close above the 158.06 range top puts the 158.19 ny high back in play
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could reset this range
Lower highs from Asian high 158.52; late-NY sweep below 157.85 reclaimed.
A late-NY slide swept the twice-defended 157.85 prior lows to a 157.67 session low as falling US yields eroded the dollar. Price has since reclaimed 157.85 and is stalling near the 38.2% level of the NY drop fib. Since London the pair has held a 157.85–158.19 range below the 158.52 Asian high.
Support: 157.85, 157.67
Resistance: 158.00, 158.19
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 157.85 prior lows turns the sweep into a breakdown toward the 157.67 session low
Reclaiming the 158.00 round number (61.8% of NY drop fib near 157.99) puts the 158.19 NY high back in play
Japan current account at 23:50 UTC is a minor event; Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.19, range break to 157.67, retesting broken base.
London broke the 158.13 Asian low and late NY broke the 157.85 base to a 157.67 day low as falling oil and yields pulled the dollar lower. Price is now retesting that broken base from below, with the 38.2% fib at 157.87 overhead and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.67, 157.50
Resistance: 157.85, 158.06, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.85 broken base and 38.2% fib at 157.87 would neutralise the late-NY break
Rejection at 157.85 and a break of the 157.67 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 round number
Lower-high trendline from the 158.19 NY high through 158.06 caps any recovery; a close above 158.06 breaks the sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Japan current account at 23:50 UTC is minor
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows through London and NY · RSI 38 · price 157.80
Weekly-open gap down, Asian range broken lower, late-NY flush to new session low.
USD/JPY gapped about 22 pips lower at the weekly open, broke below the 158.13–158.53 Asian range in London and has printed lower lows since, as the dollar gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and yields. A late-NY leg cut through the 157.85 London low to a 157.668 session low. The bounce is stalling near 157.80, just under the 23.6% fib of the 158.187 NY high to session-low drop, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.668
Resistance: 157.85, 158.062, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.85 London low turns the late-NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.668 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 158.062 swing high breaks the descending trendline from the NY high
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC in the Asia session; Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
USD/JPY opened the week with a 22-pip weekend gap lower. London then broke the Asian range low, and late NY trade cut through the 157.85 prior lows to a session low at 157.668, as the dollar extended its oil- and yield-driven slide. Lower highs at the 158.187 NY high and the 158.065 lower high frame the move; RSI(14) is near 31 and price sits under both EMAs.
Support: 157.668, 157.50, 157.26
Resistance: 157.85, 158.065, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.85 prior lows (38.2% fib) negates the break
Failure to hold the 157.668 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 157.50 round number, then 157.26 weekly low
A break of the lower-highs line above 158.065 would mark the first higher high since the Asia open
Japan Current Account 23:50 UTC tonight; Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high, 157.85 floor broken late NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 158.13 early. The late-NY slide then cleared the 157.85 London-NY prior low and printed a session low at 157.68 as softer US yields and the hawkish BoJ read weighed. RSI(14) sits near 27 after the drop, and the broken 157.85 prior low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY high-to-low leg, under the round number at 158.00.
Support: 157.68, 157.26
Resistance: 157.85, 158.00, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 157.85 prior low puts the break in question as a possible false break
Failure to hold the 157.68 session low leaves the 157.26 weekly low as the next reference
Recovery through 158.00 round number and the NY lower-highs line toward the 158.19 NY high negates the downtrend read
Japan Current Account 23:50 UTC and Tuesday's 13:30 UTC US CPI could materially shift this read
157.85–158.19 range since London, lower highs into late NY.
After the 22-pip weekend gap lower, London broke the 158.13 Asian low and printed a 157.85 day low twice, while NY's bounce stalled at the 158.19 NY high as USD gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and yields. Late NY, price slipped through the 157.95 shelf and is retesting the day low, with RSI(14) near 37 and lower highs along the falling trendline.
Support: 157.847, 157.50
Resistance: 157.95, 158.131, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 day low confirms a lower-low and puts the 157.50 round number in view
Reclaim of the 157.95 shelf returns price to the 157.85–158.19 range
Close above the falling trendline and 158.19 NY high invalidates the lower-high read; 158.13 Asian low is first test
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC, Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.19, compressing 157.95–158.06 late NY.
USD/JPY gapped about 22 pips lower at the weekly open, and London broke the Asian low near 158.13 as USD softened on lower oil and yields. A double bottom at the 157.85 session low fed a NY bounce to the 158.19 NY high. That bounce has since faded to its 50% retrace, with price compressing above the 157.95 NY lows under a lower-high line and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.946, 157.847
Resistance: 158.135, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 Asian low breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 158.19 NY high
Failure to hold the 157.95 NY lows exposes the 157.85 session low and the double bottom
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is minor; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the main risk to this range
Double bottom at 157.85, higher low at 157.95, capped below 158.19.
Monday opened on a gap down to 158.31. London then broke the Asian low at 158.13 and built a double btm at 157.85 as the softer USD and lower oil weighed. The NY bounce stalled at the 158.19 ny high, retraced roughly 0.618 to a higher low at 157.95, and price is now drifting around 158.00 in late NY with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 157.95, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.19, 158.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.13 asian low and 158.19 ny high opens the path toward the 158.31 gap open
Failure to hold the 157.95 higher low puts the 157.85 double btm back in play
Japan current account at 23:50 UTC is a minor risk for the Asia session
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 42 · price 158.013
Double bottom at 157.85, NY bounce capped under Asian low, higher low at 157.95.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 as the softer USD on Iran ceasefire hopes and cheaper oil weighed. That leg set a double bottom at the 157.85 session low. The NY rally stalled at 158.19 just above the old Asian low, and price is back at the 50% retracement of the NY rally near 158.01, holding a higher low at 157.95 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.95, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.19
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.95 higher low reopens the 157.85 session low and the double-bottom base
Close back above the asian low at 158.13 and the 158.19 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Japan Current Account 23:50 UTC and Waller Tue 09:00 GMT ahead of US CPI 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday down, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 158.054
Lower highs from the Asian high, base at 157.85.
London broke the 158.13 Asian low as softer USD on Iran/oil headlines weighed, with the day low at 157.85 tested twice. The NY rally was rejected at 158.19, just above the broken Asian low and under the lower highs line. Price has since retraced about 70% of that move and is ranging above the 157.95 swing low, hugging the EMAs.
Support: 157.95, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.19 ny high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold 157.95 swing low exposes the 157.85 day low
Iran ceasefire headlines and Japan Current Account (23:50 UTC) could jolt the late-NY range
157.85–158.19 range below the Asian range; NY printed a higher low at 157.95.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 on softer USD and hawkish BoJ minutes, then two tests at 157.85 left a double btm. NY rallied 34 pips to the ny high at 158.19, retraced about 70% of that rally to a higher low at 157.95, and is back at 158.06, just above EMA20/50 late in the NY session.
Support: 157.95, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.13 (Asian low) reopens the 158.19 NY high
Loss of the 157.95 higher low puts the 157.85 double btm back in play
Trump–Qatar PM headlines and Japan Current Account (23:50 UTC) during Asia hours
Waller at 09:00 UTC Tue ahead of US CPI could shift the read
17:47 UTC
Intraday range, slight downside drift since NY high · RSI 53 · price 158.015
Lower highs from 158.19 compressing onto 157.95 support.
London broke below the 158.13–158.39 Asian range and set a double bottom at the 157.85 session low as the USD pared post-NFP gains on softer yields and oil. NY's lift to the 158.19 ny high met rejection under the old Asian low, and price is now pinned near 158.00, at the ema20 and the 50% of the ny rally fib. The 157.95 pullback low has held three times beneath a run of lower highs, still well below the 158.39 Asian high.
Support: 157.95, 157.85
Resistance: 158.07, 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.95 pullback low opens a retest of the 157.85 session low
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high puts the 158.19 ny high back in play
Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines and oil moves could shift the read into Asia; Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, after Waller at 09:00 UTC, is the larger risk to this range
Asian range low broken in London; lower-high rally capped at 158.19.
London broke the asian low at 158.13 and set a day low at 157.85, retested during the London-NY transition, as softer USD and hawkish BoJ minutes weighed. The NY bounce stalled at the 158.19 ny high just above that broken Asian range floor and has since retraced ~62%. Price sits at 157.97 after London close, just above the 157.95 ny low, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 157.946, 157.847
Resistance: 158.131, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 day low confirms a fresh lower-low after two holds
Close back above the 158.19 ny high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 157.95 ny low exposes the day low within roughly one ATR
Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines and Japan Current Account (23:50 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Below Asian range; double bottom near 157.85 with lower highs since NY high.
Softer USD and firmer JPY pushed London below the Asian low at 158.13, and the London/early-NY selloff carved a double bottom at the 157.85 day low. The NY rebound poked above the Asian low to a 158.19 NY high before rejection, a false break that has since faded to about the 50% retrace, with price flat just under EMA20/50.
Support: 157.947, 157.847
Resistance: 158.131, 158.187
What it said to watch
Lower highs from the NY high stay intact while price holds below 158.13; an M15 close back above the Asian low reopens 158.19
Loss of the 157.95 swing low exposes the 157.85 day low; a break there voids the double bottom
Fed Barkin (17:15 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger risk
17:01 UTC
Sideways after London break lower · RSI 46 · price 157.965
157.85–158.19 range below the broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 and price has held a 157.85–158.19 range since, with the double low at 157.85 intact through London and early NY. The NY bounce on a softer USD (oil sliding, US-Iran talk hopes) met rejection at the 158.19 NY high. Price has slipped back to the 157.95 pullback low, near the 61.8% fib of that leg, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 157.947, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.187
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 double low breaks the range floor
Reclaim of the 158.13 Asian low reopens the 158.19 NY high
Holding the 157.95 pullback low keeps the range mid intact
Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Fed's Barkin (17:15 GMT) could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major range-break risk
London broke the Asia low at 158.13 and two holds at the 157.85 session low formed a double bottom. NY lifted to the 158.19 NY high before slipping back to the 158.00 round number, near the 50% fib of that leg. Softer USD on lower yields and hawkish BoJ minutes keep the pair capped below the old Asia low.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number re-exposes the 157.85 session low and undercuts the double bottom read
Acceptance back above the 158.13 Asia low puts the 158.19 NY high back in play
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift USD tone into the NY close
London range 157.85–158.19 after Asian range break lower; NY rebound capped under Asian low.
London broke below the Asian range low at 158.13 and printed a double bottom at the 157.85 London low. Softer USD and lower yields kept the pair offered. The NY bounce stalled at the 158.19 NY high, just above the old Asian low, and price is now back at 158.04, sitting on the 50% fib of the bounce near the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.19, 158.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.00 round number puts the 157.85 London low back in play
Failure to hold the 157.85 London low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower low
Close above the 158.19 NY high reclaims the Asian range, with the 158.39 Asian high next
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Japan current account 23:50 UTC; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger range-break risk
16:16 UTC
Intraday rebound within a down day · RSI 58 · price 158.125
London low double-bottomed at 157.85, NY reclaimed Asian low; capped at 158.19.
London broke below the Asian low at 158.13 as USD softened on lower yields and Iran-talk risk appetite, double-bottoming at the 157.85 london low before NY reclaimed the Asian low and printed a 158.19 ny high. Price is now pulling back to test the asian low as London closes, with RSI(14) near 58 and Monday's opening gap still unfilled.
Support: 158.13, 158.02, 157.85
Resistance: 158.19, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.13 asian low returns price to the London range, with the fib 50% at 158.02 next
Close above the 158.19 ny high opens the path toward the 158.53 gap fill and Asian high
Loss of the 157.85 london low breaks the double bottom
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read; Japan current account due 23:50 UTC
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound testing it · RSI 65 · price 158.152
Double bottom at 157.85, neckline 158.13 reclaimed.
London extended the Asian slide to a double low at 157.85, with a softer USD and hawkish BoJ minutes weighing on the pair. NY broke the London trendline and reclaimed the 158.13 neckline. The rebound has stalled at a 158.19 session high, on the 50% fib of the 158.53–157.85 decline, with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 158.13, 157.85
Resistance: 158.19, 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.13 neckline would make the breakout a false break and reopen the 157.85 double low
Acceptance above the 158.19 session high and 50% fib opens the 158.39 asia swing, then the 158.53 asian high
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone before London close fades liquidity
US October CPI on Tue at 13:30 UTC is the next major risk for this range
15:46 UTC
London downtrend reversing, NY bounce stalling · RSI 66 · price 158.152
Double bottom at 157.85, broke 158.04 lower-high, back inside Asian range.
London took out the 158.13 Asian low and printed a double bottom at 157.85, at 11:15 and 13:30 UTC. NY broke the 158.04 prior high, reclaimed the Asian range and is stalling at the ny high of 158.19, the 50% retrace of the 158.53–157.85 drop, with RSI(14) near 66. The bounce runs against a soft-USD backdrop, with the DXY below 102.00 and US yields near two-month lows.
Support: 158.04, 157.85
Resistance: 158.19, 158.27, 158.53
What it said to watch
Close above the ny high at 158.19 opens the 61.8% fib at 158.27, then the asian high at 158.53
Slip back below the 158.04 prior high negates the breakout; 157.85 dbl bottom is the next floor
Trump–Qatar meeting 17:00 UTC and Barkin 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
Double bottom at 157.85, neckline 158.04 broken, retesting Asian low.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close, and London broke the 158.13 Asian low as USD softened on lower yields and a firmer JPY after the hawkish BoJ minutes, leaving a double bottom at 157.85. The NY session has pushed back through the 158.04 neckline and is pressing the Asian low from below, just under the 50% fib at 158.19, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 158.13, 158.04, 157.85
Resistance: 158.19, 158.32, 158.53
What it said to watch
Failure to hold above the 158.13 asian low puts the 158.04 neckline back in play
M15 close above the 158.19 50% fib and the 158.32 swing high opens the path to the 158.53 gap fill
Close back below the 157.85 dbl bottom low negates the reversal read
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC and Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event
15:16 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, early-NY bounce in progress · RSI 64 · price 158.12
London lower lows to 157.85, NY double bottom and break of the 157.85–158.04 range.
London broke below the Asian low at 158.14 and ground lower to 157.85 as the USD softened on Iran peace hopes and hawkish BoJ minutes. That level held twice and formed a double bottom. Early NY then broke the 157.85–158.04 range, and price is now retesting the Asian low from below, right at the 38.2% fib of the 158.52 sell-off.
Support: 158.00, 157.85
Resistance: 158.14, 158.19, 158.37
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.14 Asian low opens the fib 50% at 158.19, then the Asian shelf near 158.37
Rejection at 158.14 and a return below 158.00 psych put the 157.85 double bottom back in focus
A break of 157.85 voids the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
Goolsbee (now), the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift USD tone this session
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger event risk; ranges may compress into it
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 and price has since held a 157.85–158.14 range on a softer USD and hawkish BoJ minutes, with the 157.85 double low defended twice into NY. A late spike to 158.09 cleared the 158.04 prior cap and the descending line off the London high, putting price near the 38.2% asian fib just under the Asian low.
Support: 158.04, 157.85
Resistance: 158.13, 158.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.13 (asian low / range top) reopens the Asian range toward the 158.37 asia pivot
Slip back below 158.04 prior cap returns focus to the 157.85 double low
Rejection at the 38.2% asian fib keeps the range-below-Asia read intact
Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Barkin 17:15 GMT could materially shift USD
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 48 · price 157.942
Lower highs below broken Asian range; tight NY base at 157.85.
London broke the 158.13 Asian low and pressed to a 157.85 session low as hawkish BoJ minutes and a softer USD weighed. NY has since compressed between that session low and the 158.04 range top, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) neutral near 48. Sunday's gap below Friday's close and the 158.52 Asian high remains unfilled.
Support: 157.847
Resistance: 158.042, 158.131, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 range top, near the 38.2% of the london selloff, opens a retest of the 158.13 asian low
Failure to hold the 157.85 session low, tested twice, extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 158.13 asian low and a break of the lower highs line put the 158.52 asian high and gap fill back in view
Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, the Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Barkin 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs above twin lows at 157.85, compressing into NY open.
London broke the Asian range low at 158.13, from an Asian high of 158.53, and extended to 157.85. Hawkish BoJ minutes firmed the yen and USD softened on US-Iran peace hopes. Into the NY open the pair is compressing between twin lows at 157.85 and a lower high at 158.04, under the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 157.85, 157.50
Resistance: 158.04, 158.13, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 twin lows confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 157.50 psych level next
Close above the 158.04 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence
Reclaim of the 158.13 asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Monday decline, puts price back inside the Asian range
Goolsbee (15:00 GMT), Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Barkin (17:15 GMT) could shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs pressing a flat 157.85 floor below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range low near 158.13 as the yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and the dollar softened. The 157.85 session low has held twice into the NY open, while lower highs at 158.135 and 158.04 squeeze price against that floor; RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 157.85
Resistance: 158.04, 158.13, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 158.04 lower high breaks the descending trendline, with the 158.13 Asian low as the next reference
A move back inside the Asian range puts the 158.53 Asian high back in view as the range top
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 UTC) on Iran could shift USD tone this session
The pair gapped lower from Friday's 158.53 close, and London broke the Asian low near 158.13 to reach 157.85 as USD softened on US-Iran peace hopes and the yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes. Into the first hour of NY, lower highs at 158.13, 158.07 and 158.04 are compressing against a flat 157.85 session low that held twice. Price sits below the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, and RSI(14) is near 41.
Support: 157.85
Resistance: 158.04, 158.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower-high trendline near 158.04 breaks the intraday sequence, and the 50% of the London leg sits near 158.08
Reclaim of the 158.13 asian low would neutralise the London breakdown
Fed's Goolsbee at 15:00 UTC and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC could shift USD tone this session
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the pair
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 as JPY firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude. The 08:45 UTC retest of that level was rejected. Lower highs at 158.07 and 158.04 now press on a flat session low near 157.85, which was tested again into the NY open, with RSI(14) around 38. The weekend gap up to Friday's 158.53 close remains unfilled.
Support: 157.847
Resistance: 158.042, 158.135, 158.528
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 158.04 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 158.13 asian low back in play
Goolsbee at 15:00 UTC and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC could shift USD tone via Iran/oil headlines
158.53 gap fill stays out of reach while the asian low caps
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 157.926
Lower highs above a flat 157.85 base, below the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range low at 158.13 on BoJ-minutes yen demand and softer oil, and the 08:45 UTC bounce stalled on a retest of that level from below. Since then a lower-high sequence (158.13, 158.07, 158.04) has pressed price against the 157.85 session low into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 157.848
Resistance: 158.042, 158.131
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.848 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 158.04 lower high breaks the lower-high line; the 158.13 asia low and 38.2% fib (~158.11) are the next test
Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00) and the Trump-Qatar meeting (17:00 GMT) could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 157.916
Lower highs below broken Asian low, 157.85–158.05 box.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 on hawkish BoJ minutes, Ueda's comments and softer crude, and the 08:45 UTC bounce stalled back at that level. Lower highs at 158.135 and 158.042 have since capped price, and early NY is pinned above the 157.848 session low, with the 157.882 NY low just beneath current price.
Support: 157.882, 157.848
Resistance: 158.042, 158.135
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.042 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the asian low at 158.135 (≈38.2% fib) is next
Failure to hold the 157.848 session low extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman (13:40) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT), then Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift this read
Asian range low broken in London; lower highs since 08:45 UTC.
USD/JPY broke under the 158.13 Asian low at London open as yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and Ueda. It has printed lower highs since, at 158.135, 158.069 and 158.042, with a session low at 157.848 just under the 157.875 London low. Into the London-NY transition, price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, not stretched.
Support: 157.875, 157.848
Resistance: 158.042, 158.135, 158.187
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.875 London low and the 157.848 session low would extend the lower-low chain.
An M15 close above the 158.042 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 158.13 Asian low back in play, with the 50% fib at 158.19 above that.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40) and Goolsbee (15:00), plus the 17:00 GMT Trump-Qatar meeting, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs below broken Asian range; base 157.85–157.90.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 and pressed to a 157.85 session low as broad USD softening on Iran-peace hopes and lower oil weighed. Two tests of 157.85–157.88 held, and a pre-NY base near 157.93 has lifted price into the 158.07 lower high. Price sits just above the 23.6% fib of the Asian high-to-session low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 157.93, 157.85
Resistance: 158.07, 158.13, 158.31
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high and back inside the Asian range above 158.13 would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 157.93 pre-NY base, then a close below the 157.85 session low, extends the downtrend
Weekly open gap at 158.31 is the next reference if the Asian low is reclaimed
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours, and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 157.939
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since the failed 158.13 retest.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. London then broke the 158.13 Asian low and extended to a 157.85 day low. The retest of the old asian low was rejected, and a lower-high trendline has capped every bounce since. Price is now coiling just under the 158.00 round number into the London-NY transition, with hawkish BoJ minutes and Iran-peace USD softness behind the slide.
Support: 157.848, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.135, 158.525
What it said to watch
A close above the lower-high trendline and 158.00 round number breaks the intraday lower-high chain.
Reclaiming the 158.135 asian low, also near the 38.2% fib of the asia high-to-day low drop, would neutralise the London breakdown.
Failure to hold the 157.848 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 157.50 psych.
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) speak in NY hours, and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting is at 17:00 GMT. Any of these could shift the read ahead of Tuesday's CPI.
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high/lower-low chain, coiling under 158.00.
London broke the 158.13 Asian low and the 157.997 Friday low. The 08:45 retest of the Asian low was rejected near the 38.2% fib, and a fresh session low printed at 157.848 late London, with the lower-high trendline still capping. The slide tracks a softer USD on risk-on Iran headlines and a firmer yen after the hawkish BoJ minutes; RSI(14) near 38, not oversold.
Support: 157.848
Resistance: 157.997, 158.069, 158.131
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.997 Friday low and the 158.069 lower high would break the lower-high trendline
Recovery through the 158.13 Asian low and 38.2% fib (158.11) negates the London breakdown read
Failure to hold the 157.848 session low extends the lower-low chain into the NY session
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT could shift USD tone in early NY hours
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT: a ceasefire headline could move USD via oil
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high/lower-low chain toward session low.
After a weekend gap lower from 158.53, USDJPY held a 158.13–158.53 Asian range, then London broke the Asian low, and the 08:45 UTC bounce was rejected right at it (158.13). Price has since printed a lower high at 158.07 and a 157.85 session low, consistent with firmer yen on the hawkish BoJ minutes. Price now sits just under the 158.00 psych level, pressing the lower-highs trendline late in the London session with RSI near 41.
Support: 157.848
Resistance: 158.00, 158.069, 158.131
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; reclaiming the 158.13 asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 157.85 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT in the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT; ceasefire headlines have been weighing on USD via oil
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range low.
After a weekend gap down from Friday's 158.53 close, London broke the Asian low at 158.13 and has since printed lower highs at 158.135 and 158.069, with a new session low at 157.848. Price is grinding just under 158.00 psych in late London as hawkish BoJ minutes and a risk-on USD pullback weigh. RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched.
Support: 157.848, 157.875
Resistance: 158.00, 158.069, 158.135
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.069 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.135 Asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 157.848 session low and the 157.875 swing low extends the lower-low chain
Rejection at 158.00 psych keeps price capped under the lower-highs line
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT, shortly after NY open, and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting could shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain into session low.
Hawkish BoJ minutes knocked USD/JPY off the 158.525 Asian high. London then broke the Asian low near 158.13 and cleared Friday's 157.997 prior low, printing a session low at 157.848 late in London. Lower highs off the 158.135 swing high keep the intraday downtrend intact, with RSI(14) near 41 and not stretched.
Support: 157.848, 157.25
Resistance: 157.997, 158.135
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 157.997 prior low and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Close above the 158.135 swing high (~38.2% of the Asia-London drop) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 157.848 session low extends the leg, with the 157.25 weekly low the next digest-flagged level
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD tone in NY session
London broke the Asian range low; lower highs compressing toward the session low.
Monday gapped about 22 pips below Friday's close. London then broke the 158.13 Asian low and printed a 157.875 session low as hawkish BoJ minutes and softer oil weighed. The bounce stalled at 158.135, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-to-London drop, and lower highs since 158.069 have price pressing the 157.906 swing low late in London.
Support: 157.906, 157.875
Resistance: 158.069, 158.135
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.875 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 158.069 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 158.13 asian low and the 38.2% retrace returns price into the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT during NY hours could materially shift this read; US CPI is Tue 13:30 GMT
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 157.957
Asian range broken lower; lower highs above 157.95.
London broke the Asian low at 158.13 and ran to a 157.875 session low as the yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes. The bounce stalled at the asian low, near the 50% of the London drop, and was rejected. Since then a series of lower highs has squeezed price onto a 157.95 micro base, just under the Friday low near 158.00.
Support: 157.95, 157.875
Resistance: 158.00, 158.13, 158.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 157.875 session low extends the London lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 158.00 friday low eases the pressure on the micro base
A reclaim of the 158.13 asian low (London drop 50%) invalidates the breakdown read; the 158.39 asian high sits above
Fed speakers during NY hours (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone
10:46 UTC
Downtrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 40 · price 157.97
Asian range broken lower, lower highs capping a tight base.
London open broke the Asian low at 158.13 and Friday's 158.00 low. Hawkish BoJ minutes and a softer dollar drove the move, and selling stalled at the 157.875 session low. The bounce retested the Asian low at about the 50% mark of the London leg and rolled over, and a lower high at 158.07 now caps price just under 158.00 late in the London morning.
Support: 157.875
Resistance: 158.00, 158.069, 158.131
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.00 friday low weakens the breakdown read
Break of the 157.875 session low extends the London leg lower-low sequence
Close above 158.13 asian low returns price to the Asian range and voids the break
Close above the 158.07 lower high breaks the trendline of lower highs
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs below the broken Asian range, coiling above the session low.
London broke the Asian range low near 158.13 and Friday's post-NFP low around 158.00, printing a 157.875 session low as hawkish BoJ minutes lifted the yen. The bounce met rejection at 158.135 on a retest of the broken asian low. Price now coils near 158.00 between a 157.957 higher low and a 158.069 lower high, under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 157.957, 157.875
Resistance: 158.069, 158.135
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.069 lower high and the falling trendline opens a retest of the 158.135 asian low
Failure to hold the 157.957 higher low exposes the 157.875 session low
Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift this read during NY hours
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 158.135, higher low at 157.96.
London broke the Asia low at 158.13 and Friday's 158.00 low, setting a session low at 157.875 as hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude weighed on the pair. The bounce stalled at 158.135 under the broken Asia low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg, and price is now compressing at 157.96–158.07 above a higher low.
Support: 157.957, 157.875
Resistance: 158.135, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.135 asia low (38.2% retrace) negates the range break and puts the 158.30 asia range body back in play
Failure to hold the 157.96 higher low reopens the 157.875 session low
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 158.135, higher low at 157.957.
London open broke the 158.13 Asian low as hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude-driven USD weighed, printing a 157.875 London low. The rebound stalled at 158.135, the broken Asian low and 38.2% fib, and price is now compressing between that level and a 157.957 higher low, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.957, 157.875
Resistance: 158.135, 158.20, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.135 (asian low) puts price inside the Asian range and opens the fib 50% at 158.20
Break of the 157.957 higher low and 157.875 london low confirms a fresh lower-low
Asian high at 158.525 marks the top of the Asian range and the weekend-gap fill zone
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT during NY hours could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 157.979
Asian range broken lower; lower-high/lower-low sequence below 158.13.
After a gap-down open below Friday's 158.53 close, late Asia broke the Asian low at 158.13 and London extended to a 157.875 session low. BoJ-minutes yen strength and softer oil weighed on the dollar. The bounce stalled at 158.135, a retest and rejection of the Asian low from below near the 61.8% of the London drop, and price is back under the Friday low at 158.00 with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 157.875
Resistance: 158.00, 158.135, 158.32
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.135 Asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline and negates the retest read
A move through the 158.32 swing high would put price back inside the Asian range
Failure at the 157.875 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD during NY hours
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger event risk for this structure
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 157.991
Asian range low broken, retest rejected, price back on Friday low.
The London selloff broke the 158.13 Asian low and ran to a 157.875 session low as the yen firmed on hawkish BoJ minutes and softer oil weighed on USD. The bounce stalled at 158.135, a rejection near the 58% retracement that set a lower high, and price is back on Friday's post-NFP low near 157.99 with RSI(14) around 35.
Support: 157.99, 157.875
Resistance: 158.135, 158.32
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 158.135 (Asian low) negates the range break and puts the 158.32 swing high back in view
Failure to hold the 157.99 Friday low and then 157.875 session low extends the lower highs / lower lows sequence
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in early London; broken 158.13 being retested from below.
Early London pushed through the Asia low at 158.13 and Friday's 157.99 low to 157.875, extending the slide on hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude. The rebound stalled at 158.135, right at the broken asia low, the 61.8% retrace and EMA20, with price back under both EMAs.
Support: 157.875
Resistance: 158.135, 158.365
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.135 asia low negates the range break; the range high at 158.365 is the next cap overhead
Failure to hold the 157.99 friday low exposes the 157.875 london low and confirms a lower-low
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC opens a run of Fed speakers during NY hours; US CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower highs intact.
After a weekend gap down from 158.53, London open broke the 158.13 asian low and Friday's 158.00 area, reaching a 157.875 session low as hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude weighed. The rebound stalled at the 158.09 rebound high, about 50% of the London leg on the fib. Price is holding just above the 158.00 round number, below both EMAs.
Support: 158.00, 157.875
Resistance: 158.093, 158.131, 158.32
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.13 asian low weakens the break-lower read
Close above the 158.32 swing high clears the descending highs trendline
Failure at the 158.00 round number and a break of the 157.875 session low extend the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin later today could shift USD tone into Tuesday's CPI
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, first bounce off lows · RSI 32 · price 157.976
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; Asian range broken lower in London.
Around London open, USDJPY broke below the Asian low at 158.13. It then cut through Friday's nfp low near 158.00, with hawkish BoJ minutes and softer crude weighing, and set a session low at 157.875. RSI(14) sits near 32 and the first bounce is so far capped under 158.00. The 38.2% retrace of the Monday decline lines up with the old Asian low.
Support: 157.875
Resistance: 157.997, 158.131, 158.32
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.875 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 158.00 nfp low suggests the London break is stalling
Recovery through the 158.13 Asian low (38.2% of the Monday decline) turns the break into a false break; the 158.32 lower high caps above
Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC could shift the read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, London extending lower · RSI 26 · price 157.923
Lower-high chain since Asia open; Asian range low broken.
USD/JPY gapped about 22 pips lower at the weekly open and printed a lower-high chain from 158.53 through Asia as hawkish-BoJ yen resilience offset Friday's NFP beat. London open broke the Asian low at 158.13 and the 158.00 round number, tagging a session low at 157.90 with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 157.902, 157.786
Resistance: 158.00, 158.131, 158.282
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 158.13 would negate the London range break
Failure to hold the session low at 157.90 exposes Friday low at 157.79
Close above the lower high at 158.28 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
158.00 round number now overhead; reclaim vs rejection defines the next leg
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT could shift USD pricing in NY session
08:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending into London open · RSI 24 · price 157.944
Lower-high chain off 158.52 open spike; Asian range broken lower.
USDJPY slipped below the Asian low at 158.13 ahead of London open, then cut through Friday's post-NFP low near 158.00 to print a fresh session low at 157.94. The move fits the digest's read of a softer dollar and firm BoJ hike pricing. Lower highs along the descending trendline from 158.52 are intact, and RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 157.942, 157.50
Resistance: 157.997, 158.131, 158.302
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the friday low at 158.00 and the asian low at 158.13 would flag the break as a false break
No bounce off the 157.94 session low keeps the lower-high chain intact with the 157.50 round number next below
M15 close above the descending trendline and 61.8% fib near 158.30 invalidates the intraday downtrend
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the Asia open, Asian range low broken.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 158.53 close. The early Asia rally stalled at the 158.525 session high, then a chain of lower highs (158.39, 158.32) gave way to a break of the 158.13 Asian low ahead of London open. Price is now pressing the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 29, as hawkish BoJ minutes and a fading post-NFP USD keep the yen firm.
Support: 158.00, 157.79
Resistance: 158.13, 158.32, 158.525
What it said to watch
A clean break of the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.79 Friday low
A reclaim of the 158.13 Asian low negates the range break and brings the 158.32 lower high back into view
RSI(14) near 29 is stretched for M15; a stall at 158.00 would show as a flattening below the lower highs trendline
Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD leg of this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asian range broken lower · RSI 32 · price 158.088
Lower highs from 158.525 open spike; Asian low 158.131 broken into London open.
USDJPY gapped ~22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close and Asia printed a chain of lower highs from the 158.525 asian high, with JPY firm on hawkish BoJ minutes. Price broke the 158.131 asian low into London open and tagged a 158.026 session low just above the 158.00 friday low, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold.
Support: 158.026, 158.00
Resistance: 158.131, 158.282, 158.525
What it said to watch
Holding below the 158.131 asian low keeps the range break intact; a quick reclaim would mark it a false break
Loss of the 158.026 session low and the 158.00 friday low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 158.282 lower high, near the fib 50%, breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the USD leg during NY hours
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 35 · price 158.123
Asian range low broken at London open, lower-high sequence intact.
USDJPY opened Monday gapped lower from Friday's 158.53 close and has printed lower highs from 158.525 (asian high) through 158.32 (lower high), extending Friday's post-NFP fade as hawkish BoJ minutes keep the yen bid. The London open took out the 158.13 asian low to a 158.09 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 and not yet oversold.
Support: 158.09, 158.00
Resistance: 158.13, 158.32, 158.525
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 158.13 (asian low) reframes the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 158.09 session low exposes the 158.00 friday low and round number
A close above the 158.32 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 158.111
Weekend gap lower, pressing Asian low into London open.
USDJPY opened the week with a 22-pip gap below Friday's 158.53 close. Asia faded the 158.525 opening high as the yen firmed on the hawkish BoJ minutes read. A lower-highs sequence off the 158.365 Asian high now has price testing the 158.13 Asian low at London open, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 158.00, 157.689
Resistance: 158.131, 158.365, 158.528
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 asian low confirms the Asian range break and exposes the 158.00 round number
Recovery above the 158.365 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and voids the intraday downtrend read
Gap fill toward 158.53 needs a reclaim of the Asian high first; 157.69 friday low is the next pivot below 158.00
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 and Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift December hike pricing and this read ahead of Tue CPI
Asian range 158.13–158.53 with lower highs, price at range floor.
USD/JPY opened Asia with a ~22-pip gap down from Friday's 158.53 close. It stalled just shy of the gap close at 158.525 and has since printed lower highs at 158.39 and 158.32, the descending highs line, with hawkish BoJ minutes keeping the yen firm. Price sits on the 158.20 range floor under both EMAs, RSI 41, ahead of the London open.
Support: 158.20, 158.13
Resistance: 158.32, 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 asian low breaks the Asian range lower and exposes Friday's post-NFP 158.10 low
Close above the 158.32 lower high breaks the descending highs sequence and puts the 158.39 swing high back in play
Reclaim of the 158.53 gap close would negate the gap-down read
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT in NY hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
06:31 UTC
Sideways, compressing below gap · RSI 44 · price 158.271
Lower highs and higher lows inside 158.13–158.37 Asian range.
Monday's Asia session opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The gap fill attempt was rejected at 158.525 and price slid to the 158.13 asian low as hawkish BoJ minutes kept the yen firm. Since then, lower highs and higher lows have compressed price into 158.20–158.37 heading into London open, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 158.20, 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.32, 158.37, 158.53
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.37 range top breaks the compression and reopens the 158.53 gap fill
A close through the 158.32 lower high is the first sign the descending highs are failing
Failure to hold the 158.20 higher low exposes the 158.13 asian low, then the 158.00 friday low
Fed speakers during NY hours (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) ahead of Tue US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.53 against higher lows off 158.13; tightening range inside Asian session.
Monday opened with a roughly 22-pip gap below Friday's 158.53 close. The gap fill attempt was rejected at 158.525, and the Asian low printed at 158.13 as JPY stayed firm on hawkish BoJ minutes. Late Asia session now shows lower highs at 158.39 and 158.32 compressing against a higher low at 158.20, with price below both EMAs and RSI neutral.
Support: 158.20, 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.32, 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.20 higher low breaks the compression and exposes the 158.13 asian low, then the 157.997 fri low near 158.00.
M15 close above the 158.32 lower high invalidates the lower-highs read and brings the 158.39 swing high and the 158.53 gap fill back into view.
London open is about 1-2h away, and a break of the Asian range would set the session tone.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT), plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift this read during NY hours.
Lower highs since weekly open; Asian range 158.13–158.37, price mid-range.
USDJPY gapped ~22 pips lower at the weekly open and slid from the 158.53 opening spike to the 158.13 Asian low as hawkish BoJ minutes kept the yen firm. The rebound stalled at the 158.365 lower high near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian decline, and price sits at 158.24 under both EMAs and the lower-highs trendline ahead of London open.
Support: 158.199, 158.131
Resistance: 158.365, 158.528, 158.579
What it said to watch
Loss of the 158.20 intraday low exposes the 158.13 asian low, then the 157.99 friday low
M15 close above the 158.365 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 158.53 gap fill, with the 158.58 nfp high above
Fed speakers Bowman and Goolsbee in the NY session and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone
05:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing in Asia · RSI 54 · price 158.309
Lower highs vs higher low inside Asian range.
Monday opened ~22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The gap fill was rejected at the 158.53 Asian high, and late Asia has compressed between lower highs at 158.37 and higher lows at 158.20 as the yen stays firm on the hawkish BoJ minutes. Price at 158.31 sits just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 about 2.5h before London open.
Support: 158.20, 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.37, 158.53, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.37 lower high reopens the 158.53 Asian high and the Friday close; the 158.58 nfp high sits just above
Failure at the 158.20 higher low exposes the 158.13 Asian low, then the 158.00 friday low
A London open break of either trendline (lower highs / higher lows) ends the compression read
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar Iran talks (17:00 GMT) could shift USD tone during NY hours
05:16 UTC
Mild intraday down-drift inside the Asian range · RSI 45 · price 158.222
Lower highs from the 158.52 Asia high, asian low at 158.13 holding twice.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The Asia session high at 158.52 was rejected short of the gap fill, and price has since printed lower highs at 158.39 and 158.37, capped near the 61.8% of the Asia drop, while the asian low at 158.13 has held twice. Yen firmness on the hawkish BoJ minutes and a softer USD in Asia have kept the pair in the low 158.20s into late Asia, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.38, 158.52
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.13 asian low breaks the Asian range and opens the 158.00 friday low and round number
A close back above the 158.38 lower highs (61.8% of the Asia drop) negates the lower-high sequence; the 158.52 gap fill sits above
London open is the first test of the Asian range boundaries
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar Iran talks (17:00 GMT) during NY hours could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. Asia filled that gap to the 158.525 asian high, was rejected there, then sold into a 158.13 asian low as hawkish BoJ minutes firmed the yen. The rebound stalled at 158.365, a lower high below the 158.58 nfp high, and price is drifting under both EMAs mid-range late in the Asia session, with ATR(14) near 7 pips.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.365, 158.525, 158.58
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.13 asian low exposes the 158.00 round number, Friday's NY session low
A close above the 158.365 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.525 asian high back in play
London open is the first test of the Asian range edges
Fedspeak from Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) on December hike odds could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
04:46 UTC
Rangebound in Asia, short-term recovery from session low · RSI 57 · price 158.315
Asian range 158.13–158.53 after a weekend gap down; higher lows since 158.13, capped at 158.365.
Monday Asia opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The gap-fill attempt was rejected at the 158.525 Asian high, and price slid to an Asian low of 158.131 as hawkish BoJ minutes firmed the yen. Price has since printed higher lows near 158.27 and is capped at the 158.365 session high, sitting around the 50% retracement of the Asian range.
Support: 158.27, 158.131, 158.00
Resistance: 158.365, 158.525, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.365 session high opens a retest of the 158.525 Asian high and gap fill, with the 158.579 NFP high beyond
Loss of the 158.27 higher low breaks the recovery and returns focus to the 158.131 Asian low
Break below the 158.13 Asian low exposes the 158.00 round number, near Friday's NY low of 157.997
London open in about 2h is the first test of the Asian range; Fedspeak (Bowman 13:40 UTC) and Tuesday's US CPI could reset the read
04:16 UTC
Mid-range, drifting off Asia high · RSI 49 · price 158.291
Asian range 158.13–158.53; rebound high 158.365 is a lower high, with rising lows off 158.13.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap down from Friday's 158.53 close. Price filled it to the 158.525 asia high, then sold off to a 158.13 asia low as hawkish BoJ minutes firmed the yen. The rebound stalled at the 158.365 rebound high, near the 61.8% retrace of that drop. Price is now sitting on the 38.2% around 158.28, holding the rising lows, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.365, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.365 rebound high reopens the 158.525 asia high
Failure to hold the 158.13 asia low exposes the 158.00 round number and Friday's 157.997 low
A break of the rising lows trendline puts the 158.13 asia low back in focus into London open
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
04:01 UTC
Range-bound after Monday gap lower · RSI 51 · price 158.28
Asian range 158.13–158.53, bounce capped at 61.8%.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The early Asia push to 158.525 was rejected just shy of the gap fill, and yen demand on hawkish BoJ minutes drove a slide to the 158.13 Asian low. The rebound stalled at the 158.37 swing high near the 61.8% retracement, leaving price mid-range just under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.37, 158.53
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.13 Asian low exposes Friday's 158.00 round number
M15 close above the 158.37 swing high and 61.8% retracement opens the path to the 158.53 gap fill
London open could expand the Asian range; Fed speakers from 13:40 UTC are the next USD catalyst ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Monday's Asia session opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The rebound stalled at 158.525, short of a full gap fill, and price slid to a 158.13 Asia low as JPY firmed on the hawkish BoJ minutes. Twin lows at 158.13–158.15 have held, and price is now back in the 50–61.8% fib retrace of that drop, just under the 158.39 swing high and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 158.131, 157.997
Resistance: 158.388, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 swing high completes the double bottom and puts the 158.525 gap fill back in play
Failure at the 61.8% fib near 158.37 keeps the session's lower-high structure intact
Loss of the 158.13 Asia low exposes the 158.00 friday low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak from 13:40 UTC, and Japan's current account is due at 23:50 UTC. Either could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI.
Gap-down open, lower highs from 158.525, base at 158.13.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close as USD faded on hawkish BoJ minutes. The gap-fill attempt was rejected at 158.525, and price slid to the asia low at 158.13, which held on two tests. In mid-Asia trade, price is back at the 50% fib near 158.33, sitting fractionally above a flat EMA20/EMA50, with lower highs at 158.39 still capping.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 158.53 friday close back in play
Failure to hold the 158.13 asia low exposes the 158.00 friday low, the NY-session floor after the NFP spike faded
Fedspeak (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Asia rejection at gap fill, rising lows off 158.13.
The Asia session opened with a weekend gap down to 158.31. Price filled it to the 158.52 Asia high and was rejected, sliding to the 158.13 Asia low as USD gave back part of its post-NFP gains. Rising lows since 01:45 UTC have lifted price back to 158.30, roughly the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop, still capped by the 158.39 lower high.
Support: 158.131, 157.997
Resistance: 158.388, 158.525, 158.579
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the Asian down-sequence and brings the 158.52 Asia high and 158.58 NFP high back into view
Break of the 158.13 Asia low invalidates the rising lows and exposes the 158.00 Friday low
London open in ~5h is the next test of the Asian range; Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift the USD read
Lower highs inside a 158.13–158.53 Asian range, base holding at 158.13.
USDJPY gapped lower at the Sunday open (158.30) from Friday's 158.53 post-NFP close. Price was rejected right at the gap fill (158.525) and has since compressed in Asia between the 158.13 asian low and a 158.39 lower high, as the post-NFP USD bid fades. Price sits under EMA20 and the 38.2% of the Asian drop at 158.28, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 158.53 friday close back in focus
Failure to hold the 158.13 asian low exposes the 158.00 round number, near Friday's 157.997 wick low
Holding below the 158.30 sunday open, also the digest's 158.30 pivot, keeps the gap-down read intact
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) in the NY session could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Asia opened with a 22-pip gap below the 158.53 Friday close. The gap-fill attempt drew a rejection at 158.525, and lower highs at 158.39 now press on a flat Asian low near 158.13, in line with the digest's early-Asia fade of Friday's NFP gains. Price at 158.24 sits below both EMAs and has given back more than half of the late-Friday rally on the fib.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.39, 158.53
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 asian low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 158.53 friday close
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee/Barkin later Monday add USD headline risk ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Lower highs from 158.525 in Asia, lows compressing at 158.13–158.16.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 158.528 close as USD softened on Iran-peace hopes. The early Asia fill to 158.525 was rejected, and the Tokyo session sold to a 158.131 session low. Demand has stepped in at 158.13–158.16 three times, and price sits under the monday open at 158.306 and the falling trendline.
Support: 158.131, 157.997
Resistance: 158.306, 158.388, 158.528
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.131 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.997 fri ny low
M15 close above the 158.388 lower high breaks the falling trendline and invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Reclaim of the 158.306 monday open would put the fri close gap at 158.528 back in play
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg during NY hours
02:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs in Asia · RSI 39 · price 158.208
Gap-down open, failed gap fill, lower highs pressing the Asian low.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 22 pips below the 158.53 Friday close as USD eased on Iran-peace hopes. The gap-fill rally was rejected at 158.525, and lower highs since then have pushed price back under the 158.30 Monday open toward the 158.13 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.30, 158.53, 158.58
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.13 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 158.00 round number, which was also Friday's NY-session low
Reclaim of 158.30 (Monday open, 38.2% fib) breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the lower-high read
Retest of the 158.53 Friday close and the 158.58 NFP high requires a break of the rejection zone
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.52 rejection, holding 158.13 session low.
Asia session opened with a gap down to the 158.31 gap open from Friday's post-NFP 158.53 close. Price nearly filled the gap at the 158.52 session high, then rejected there and fell to a 158.13 session low. The lower high at 158.39 now caps the bounce, and the asia drop's 50–61.8% retracement sits just under that pivot.
Support: 158.13, 158.00
Resistance: 158.31, 158.39, 158.52
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.52 session high
Failure to hold the 158.13 session low exposes the 158.00 round number
Holding below the 158.31 gap open keeps the post-rejection leg intact
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 35 · price 158.16
Weekend gap lower, lower high at 158.39, testing Asia low.
Asia opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The early push to the 158.52 session high was rejected short of filling the gap, and the 00:45 UTC bounce stalled at a lower high near 158.39. Price is now pressing the 158.15 Asia low with RSI(14) near 35, giving back part of Friday's NFP-driven dollar rally.
Support: 158.145, 158.00
Resistance: 158.388, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.15 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of the 158.39 lower high breaks the descending trendline and negates the intraday downtrend read
A move back through the 158.52 session high would fill the weekend gap
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin later today could materially shift USD pricing
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 38 · price 158.25
Weekend gap down, fill attempt rejected; lower high at 158.388 under 158.525.
Asia opened 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. The gap fill attempt stalled at 158.525 and price slid to a 158.145 session low as Tokyo opened. The bounce stalled at 158.388 for a lower high, holding near 64% of that drop, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38 as the market digests Friday's NFP-driven dollar rally.
Support: 158.145, 158.00
Resistance: 158.388, 158.53, 158.579
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.145 session low exposes the 158.00 friday low, Friday's post-NFP pullback trough
M15 close above the 158.388 lower high breaks the micro downtrend and reopens the gap fill at 158.53, with the nfp high at 158.579 above
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin today could shift Dec hike pricing and this read
Japan current account at 23:50 UTC is medium impact for the JPY leg
01:01 UTC
Pullback after weekend gap lower · RSI 40 · price 158.293
Asian range forming 158.145–158.525, below gap fill.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. Price met rejection at the 158.525 gap fill, slid to a 158.145 Asian session low, and has rebounded to the 38.2% fib near 158.29. That leaves it under ema20 with RSI(14) near 40, partly unwinding the late-Friday post-NFP rally in thin Asia trade.
Support: 158.145, 158.00
Resistance: 158.35, 158.525, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 near 158.35 shifts focus back to the 158.525 gap fill
Rejection again at the gap fill keeps the Asian range capped under Friday's close
A break of the 158.145 session low exposes the 158.00 round number, Friday's late low
Acceptance above the 158.58 nfp high breaks the range top
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee later Monday could shift the USD leg ahead of Tuesday's CPI
00:46 UTC
Short-term down within Friday's post-NFP range · RSI 39 · price 158.276
Gap-down open, lower highs from 158.525 asia high, holding above asia low.
Monday opened about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close, which was lifted by the NFP beat. Early Asia retested the Friday close and was rejected at the 158.525 asia high, then slid to a 158.145 asia low. Price is now pinned just under the 158.30 gap open, where the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg also sits, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 158.145, 157.997
Resistance: 158.306, 158.525, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.30 gap open (Asia leg fib 38.2%) would weaken the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.145 asia low exposes Friday's 158.00 ny low
Break above 158.525 asia high reopens the 158.579 nfp high
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday (13:40–17:15 UTC) could shift the USD leg
00:31 UTC
Short-term down after a failed gap fill · RSI 31 · price 158.18
Lower highs from 158.525, fresh Asian session low.
The weekly open gapped about 22 pips below Friday's 158.53 close. Early Asia ran back to 158.525 to close the gap and was rejected there. The Asian decline has since set a session low at 158.145, just above Friday's NFP low at 158.105. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 31, and NFP-driven USD support is fading as news flow stays thin.
Support: 158.145, 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.306, 158.525
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.105 (nfp low) opens the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of the 158.30 gap open would neutralise the rejection read
Retracement of the Asian decline stalling below the 61.8% (~158.38) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday could shift USD tone ahead of Tuesday CPI
Japan Current Account at 23:50 UTC is a minor JPY risk
Monday gap unfilled, lower highs since early-Asia rejection.
Asia opened with a ~22-pip gap below the 158.53 friday close. The gap-fill attempt was rejected at 158.525, just under the 158.58 NFP high, and price has since slipped to a fresh session low at 158.16. That leaves it beneath the 61.8% level of the Friday rally fib (158.00–158.54), with RSI(14) near 31 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 158.16, 158.00
Resistance: 158.31, 158.53, 158.58
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.16 session low exposes the 158.00 friday low and the base of the Friday rally fib
Reclaiming the 158.31 monday open puts the gap fill back in play toward 158.53
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee) and Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Short-term down, early Asia slide · RSI 34 · price 158.235
Lower highs since NFP spike; weekend gap unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened about 22 pips below the 158.53 Friday close. The gap-fill attempt was rejected at 158.525, extending a lower-highs sequence from the 158.579 NFP high. Price has since slid to a 158.22 session low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Friday's late-NY rally, with RSI(14) near 34 as USD holds its NFP gains.
Support: 158.22, 158.105, 158.00
Resistance: 158.31, 158.53, 158.579
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.22 session low exposes the 158.105 post-NFP low, then the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of the 158.31 gap open shifts focus back to the 158.53 Friday close and the lower-highs line
A break above the 158.579 NFP high would end the lower-highs sequence
Iran de-escalation headlines or an equity-led haven bid in Asia could materially shift this read