The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales print whipsawed the pair to a post-PPI low at 157.546 before an NY rally to the 158.245 NY high, as yields kept the data reaction muted. Early Asia session has built higher lows from the 157.936 Asia low, with a higher low at 158.037. Price is compressing just under the 158.148 Asia high, RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) contracted to roughly 6–7 pips.
Support: 158.037, 157.936, 157.546
Resistance: 158.148, 158.245
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read and expand the current tight range
M15 close above the 158.148 Asia high opens a retest of the 158.245 NY high
Failure to hold the 158.037 higher low breaks the Asian-session higher-low sequence
Loss of the 157.936 Asia low puts the post-PPI low at 157.546 back in view
23:31 UTC
Post-data recovery, ranging below NY high · RSI 52 · price 158.108
158.01–158.25 range after V-shaped rebound; higher low at rollover.
The hot US PPI/retail sales spike to 158.185 reversed to a 157.546 data low as yields fell. Price then rebounded to a 158.245 NY high and held a 158.01–158.25 range through the NY afternoon. A thin rollover dip to 157.936 slipped below the ny range low but closed back inside, and early Asia trades mid-range near 158.11 with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 158.012, 157.936, 157.546
Resistance: 158.148, 158.245
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; yields remain the main USD/JPY driver per the digest
The overnight high at 158.148 is the first cap; an M15 close above the 158.245 NY high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 158.01 ny range low and the 157.936 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 61.8% post-data fib near 157.81, with the 157.546 data low below
Lower highs from 158.25 NY high, rollover low 157.94 holding.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike swept the Asian low to a 157.55 day low before a rally to the 158.25 NY high, though falling US yields have since capped the pair in a lower-high consolidation. The rollover low at 157.94 held between the 38.2% and 50% of the post-data rally, and early Asia session is bouncing into a 158.15 session high with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 158.01, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.15, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 session high and lower-high trendline reopens the 158.25 NY high
Failure to hold the 158.01 swing low exposes the 157.94 rollover low and the 50% fib of the post-data rally near 157.90
A break of 157.94 puts the 157.55 day low back in play
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Range after NY recovery, drifting lower · RSI 53 · price 158.122
Lower highs from 158.25 NY high; 157.94 rollover low held, early-Asia bounce.
The hot PPI and retail sales spike to 158.19 reversed to a 157.55 day low as US yields fell, then NY retraced the entire move to a 158.25 NY high. Since then price has made lower highs into the rollover. The 157.94 rollover low held between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and early Asia is now retesting the lower-highs trendline near 158.13 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 158.01, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.245
What it said to watch
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 158.19 lower high reopens the 158.25 NY high
Break of the 158.01 swing low and 157.94 rollover low exposes the 50% fib near 157.90, then the 157.55 day low
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 158.25, holding above the 157.94 late low.
The US PPI/retail sales whipsaw at 12:30 UTC spiked to 158.19, flushed to a 157.55 day low as yields fell, then NY recovered the move to a 158.25 day high. Since then price has printed lower highs and dipped to a 157.94 late low around the daily rollover. It now sits at 158.08 in thin early Asia, holding 23% into the post-data rally fib, with the 158.19 lower high capping.
Support: 158.01, 157.94, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 lower high and the 158.25 day high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 157.94 late low exposes the 50% post-data rally retrace near 157.90, then the 157.55 day low
Holding above the 158.01 swing low keeps price in the upper half of the post-data range
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Sideways after NY reversal, lower highs forming · RSI 44 · price 158.037
Lower highs since 158.25 session high, holding 157.94 overnight low.
The US data whipsaw at 12:30 UTC swept the Asian low to 157.55, then NY reversed to a 158.25 session high even as falling yields kept the yen bid. Since then a run of lower highs has eased price into a 157.94–158.25 band. The overnight low held in the 38.2–50% fib zone, and price is now flat at the EMAs in thin rollover trade.
Support: 157.94, 157.81, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.94 overnight low exposes the fib 61.8% at 157.81, then the 157.55 ny low
Close above the 158.19 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 158.25 session high
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Asia liquidity is thin until then
Lower highs off the NY high, 157.94 rollover low holding.
The post-PPI whipsaw swept the Asian low to the 157.55 NY low before a 70-pip recovery to the 158.25 NY high, but the yield-led USD fade has since capped price with a lower high at 158.19. Price is quiet after the rollover, holding the 157.94 rollover low near the 38.2% retracement of the NY rally fib. RSI(14) at about 41 and price sits under EMA20.
Support: 157.94, 157.90, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 158.25 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.94 rollover low exposes the fib 50% at 157.90, then the 157.55 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from NY high · RSI 43 · price 157.975
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.25 NY high, inside the 157.55–158.32 24h range.
The hot US PPI and retail sales spike to 158.19 at 12:30 UTC was faded as yields fell, sweeping the Asian low into a 157.55 data low before NY rallied to the 158.25 NY high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and slipped under the 158.01 broken low after NY close. It now sits on the 38.2% retrace of the data rally near 157.98, with the late low at 157.94 the nearest floor and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 157.936, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 158.012, 158.188, 158.245
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read during the Asia session
M15 close back above the 158.01 broken low and the 158.19 lower high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.94 late low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone near 157.81–157.90, then the 157.67 london low
Loss of the 157.55 data low breaks the 24h range floor
NY reversal rally to 158.25 now retracing; late-NY range floor broken.
The hot PPI/retail sales spike to 158.19 faded as Treasury yields fell. Price swept the Asian low at 157.58 to a 157.55 day low, then rallied to the 158.25 NY high. After the NY close it slipped through the 158.01 range floor below a 158.19 lower high, and sits at the 38.2% retrace of that rally near 157.96 into a thin Asia session open.
Support: 157.90, 157.67, 157.55
Resistance: 158.01, 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 158.01 range floor reopens the 158.19 lower high and the 158.25 NY high
Failure to hold the 157.90 50% fib exposes the 157.67 london low and the 157.55 day low
NY afternoon range 158.01–158.25 broken to the downside in thin late trade.
The US data spike to 158.185 reversed to a 157.55 data low as Treasury yields fell. NY then recovered to 158.25 and held a 158.01–158.25 range, but late NY and rollover trade slipped through the 158.01 range floor. Price is now 157.95, just under the 38.2% retrace of the data-low-to-NY-high leg.
Support: 157.83, 157.55
Resistance: 158.01, 158.25
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (about 6h, during Asia session) and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close back above the 158.01 range floor would make the break a false break and restore the 158.01–158.25 range, with the 158.25 NY high as the cap.
Failure to hold the 157.83 higher low, below the 50% fib near 157.90, would expose the 157.55 data low.
Rollover liquidity is thin, so this range-floor break is not yet confirmed by Asia session flow.
The 12:30 UTC US data dump spiked to 158.185, then swept to a 157.546 day low as falling yields overrode the hot PPI. Price rebounded to a 158.245 NY high, has since printed a lower high at 158.188, and slipped below the 158.012 prior floor into thin rollover trade. The 157.83 NY pivot, near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib, is the next shelf, with the 157.672 London low and the day low below.
Support: 157.83, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 158.012, 158.188, 158.245
What it said to watch
A close back above the 158.012 prior floor negates the range break.
A break of the 157.83 NY pivot exposes the 157.672 London low, then the 157.546 day low.
A push through the 158.188 lower high and the 158.245 NY high would reverse the lower-high sequence.
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (about 6h away) could materially shift this read.
Rollover liquidity is thin, so moves before the Asia session are less reliable.
Lower highs since 158.25; 158.01 swing low broken.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales spike to 158.19 faded as Treasury yields slid. The drop briefly broke the Asian range low to a 157.55 NY low, then reversed into a rally to the 158.25 session high. A lower-highs sequence has since capped the move, and late NY has slipped under the 158.01 broken low and both EMAs to sit on the 38.2% of the NY rally fib at 157.98.
Support: 157.83, 157.55
Resistance: 158.01, 158.19, 158.25
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.83 pullback low (61.8% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 157.55 NY low
Recovery above the 158.01 broken low and the 158.19 lower high would break the lower-highs line and negate the pullback read
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC Fri during the Asia session; a hawkish or cautious tone could reset this structure
20:46 UTC
Post-data rebound stalling, drifting in late NY · RSI 46 · price 158.082
Lower highs from 158.245 NY high inside a 158.01–158.25 band.
The hot PPI and retail sales spike to 158.19 reversed into a sweep of the Asian range low, printing the NY low at 157.55. NY then reclaimed the 158.03 Asian high and topped at 158.245. Late-NY trade has since faded into a lower high at 158.19 and a swing low at 158.01, with price sitting just under EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 158.01, 157.90, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.245, 158.34
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.245 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.34 prior high
Failure to hold the 158.01 swing low opens the 50% fib at 157.90, with the 157.55 NY low below
Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC, Asia session) could materially shift this read via US yields
Post-PPI sweep low at 157.55, lower highs since 158.25 session high.
The hot PPI print triggered a spike-and-reverse that swept below the Asian low to 157.55. Price then recovered through the Asian high to a 158.25 session high during NY hours. Late NY has faded into a lower high at 158.19, and price is holding above the 158.01 swing low and the fib 38.2 at 157.98.
Support: 158.01, 157.98, 157.67
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC, Asia session) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 158.01 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 at 157.98, then the 157.67 london low
M15 close above the 158.19 lower high and 158.25 session high breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 158.34 prior high in view
20:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling in late NY · RSI 56 · price 158.106
Asian-low sweep then higher high; now a lower high inside 158.01–158.25.
The US PPI and retail sales spike swept below the Asian low to a 157.55 NY low. The pair then reversed through the Asian range high to a 158.25 NY high, despite the digest's yield-driven yen strength. Late in NY, price is compressing between the 158.01 swing low and a 158.19 lower high, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 56, and the 158.01 pullback held just above the 38.2% fib.
Support: 158.01, 157.55
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.36
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.01 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 157.55 NY low
Close above the 158.19 lower high and the 158.25 NY high opens the 158.36 prior high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read via US yields
20:01 UTC
Recovered after post-data low, now flat · RSI 50 · price 158.12
V-recovery from 157.55, rotating in a 158.01–158.25 range.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beat spiked USDJPY to 158.19. It then reversed, sweeping the Asian low to a 157.55 NY low as yields fell, before rallying to a 158.25 NY high. Since 16:00 UTC price has rotated between the 158.01 swing low and the 158.21 range cap after London close, holding above the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 158.01, 157.98, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.25, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.01 swing low and the 38.2% fib at 157.98 opens a deeper retrace toward the 157.55 NY low
Break of the 158.21 range cap and 158.25 NY high exposes the 158.38 window high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 158.01 after 157.55 sweep; 158.01–158.25 box.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales beats triggered a whipsaw. Price swept the Asian low to the 157.55 ppi low, then NY reversed through the Asian high to a 158.25 session high. Late in the NY session, price holds a higher swing low at 158.01 above the 38.2% retrace of that leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 158.01, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 session high opens the 158.38 prior high
Break below the 158.01 swing low and the rising support line undercuts the higher-low structure
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 157.90 50% retrace puts the 157.55 ppi low back in focus
19:16 UTC
Recovery from post-data low, stalling below session high · RSI 52 · price 158.146
Higher low at 158.012 under 158.245 session high; tight late-NY range.
The US data spike to 158.185 reversed into a sweep of the Asian low, printing a 157.546 day low as Treasury yields slid. NY then recovered the whole leg to a 158.245 session high. After London close the pullback held a swing low at 158.012, just above the 38.2% retrace. Price is now chopping in a 158.01–158.25 band with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 158.012, 157.546
Resistance: 158.245, 158.381
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the 158.381 prior high from the window start
Failure to hold the 158.012 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.546 day low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read via US yields
19:01 UTC
Recovering off day low, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 158.136
V-shaped rebound from 157.55, higher low at 158.01, tight range under NY high.
Hot US PPI and retail sales spiked the pair to 158.19 at 12:30 UTC. Falling yields then dragged it below the London low to the 157.55 day low, a false break that NY reversed into a 158.245 NY high. The pullback held the 158.01 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and price is now compressing between 158.01 and 158.25 with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 9 pips.
Support: 158.01, 157.55
Resistance: 158.245, 158.38
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via US yields
M15 close above the 158.245 NY high opens the prior high at 158.38
Failure to hold the 158.01 swing low and the 38.2% fib exposes the 157.55 day low
V-reversal off NY sweep low, now a lower high inside 158.01–158.25.
The 12:30 UTC US data whipsaw ran below the Asian low to a 157.55 ny low before reversing to a 158.25 session high, even as the digest notes falling US yields left the dollar unable to hold its data gains. Late NY is rotating in a tight 158.01–158.25 band with a lower high at 158.21. The pullback low at 158.01 is holding just above the 38.2% fib of the recovery.
Support: 158.01, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.01 pullback low breaks the post-sweep higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib near 157.98
M15 close above the 158.25 session high opens the 158.38 prior high
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
18:33 UTC
Post-data rebound fading, lower highs into late NY · RSI 39 · price 158.023
Lower highs below 158.25 NY high, testing 158.00 round number.
The PPI and retail sales whipsaw printed a 157.55 session low before NY rebounded to a 158.25 high. Since then a lower high at 158.21 and a slide back to the 158.00 round number, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound, with RSI(14) around 39 as USD fades the hawkish data on softer yields.
Support: 158.00, 157.67, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.25, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.00 round number exposes the 157.90 50% fib and the 157.67 london low
Reclaim of the 158.21 lower high and the 158.25 ny high reopens the 158.38 prior high from yesterday evening
Break of the 157.55 session low would extend the Asia-to-NY lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from 157.55 day low, now a tight 158.08–158.25 band in late NY.
The 12:30 UTC hot PPI and retail sales print whipsawed the pair. It swept the Asian lows to a 157.55 day low at 13:45 UTC, then reclaimed the move to a 158.25 NY high. Since then a lower high at 158.21 has formed, and price is sitting on the 158.08 pullback low, right at EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 158.08, 158.00, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.25, 158.40
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.08 pullback low exposes the 158.00 round number and the post-data rally fib 38.2% near 157.98
A close above the 158.25 NY high clears the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 158.40 prior high
Loss of the 157.55 day low would void the post-data reversal
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal from 157.55 day low, broke Asian range high; tight 158.08–158.25 consolidation.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 158.19 reversed into a sweep of the Asian low to a 157.55 day low. NY then rallied through the Asian high at 158.03 to a 158.245 session high, despite the broader USD fade on hot PPI. Price has held a pullback low at 158.08 near the 23.6% fib after London close, RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 158.08, 158.03, 157.55
Resistance: 158.245, 158.56
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.08 pullback low exposes the asian high at 158.03 and the 50% fib near 157.90
Break of the 158.245 session high opens the path to the 158.56 prior high
Loss of 157.90 turns the rally into a retracement back toward the 157.55 day low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.55 post-PPI low, compressing under 158.25.
The volatile reaction to the hot US PPI briefly swept the 157.58 Asian low to a 157.55 ppi low as yields pulled back. Price then rebounded about 70 pips to a 158.25 session high, clearing the asian high near 158.03. Late NY is compressing between the 158.08 swing low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 59 and price holding above the 23.6% level of the post-PPI rally fib.
Support: 158.08, 158.03, 157.55
Resistance: 158.245, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.08 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rally trendline; asian high at 158.03 then in focus
Close above the 158.25 session high exposes the 158.38 swing high from late yesterday
Return below the asian high toward the 157.90 50% fib level weakens the rebound read; the 157.55 ppi low is the floor of the move
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
V-reversal from NY low, higher low at 158.08 under session high.
The hot PPI and retail sales prints at 12:30 UTC produced a whipsaw that swept the Asian range low to a 157.546 NY low. Price then reversed through the London high to a 158.245 session high. Late NY trade is compressing above a 158.08 higher low with RSI(14) near 64, holding the 24% retracement of the rally.
Support: 158.08, 157.546
Resistance: 158.245, 158.381, 158.66
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the 158.381 prior high, with the 158.66 24h high beyond
Failure to hold the 158.08 higher low and the rally trendline exposes the 50% fib near 157.90
A move back toward the 157.546 NY low would negate the V-reversal read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri (Asia session) could materially shift this read
V-recovery from day-low sweep, tight range below NY high.
The hot US PPI spike to 158.185 reversed into a sweep below the Asian range low, printing a day low at 157.546 before a V-shaped NY recovery to the 158.245 NY high. After London close, price is compressing in a 158.08–158.25 band, holding above the 158.00 round number, which sits on the 38.2% NY rally fib.
Support: 158.08, 158.00, 157.546
Resistance: 158.245, 158.381
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.08 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number / 38.2% fib
Close above the 158.245 NY high reopens the 158.381 prior high from late yesterday
Loss of the 50% NY rally fib near 157.90 puts the 157.546 day low back in play
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
NY sweep of Asian low then higher high; tight pullback holding 158.08.
The 12:30 UTC PPI release spiked USD/JPY to 158.19 and reversed it. Price then swept the Asian low near 157.58 into a 157.55 NY low before snapping back to a 158.245 session high, above the London high at 158.05. Late in NY hours it is compressing just above the 158.08 pullback low. RSI(14) is near 61, cooled from the rally.
Support: 158.08, 157.546
Resistance: 158.245, 158.38
What it said to watch
Close below the 158.08 pullback low exposes the 50% fib of the NY low-high leg near 157.90
Break of the 158.245 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.38 prior swing
A return under the 157.546 NY low would undo the sweep-and-reverse read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low sequence since NY sweep of the Asian low; London high reclaimed.
The US PPI spike to 158.185 reversed into a NY-hours sweep of the Asian low near 157.58, bottoming at the 157.546 session low. That flush was followed by a 70-pip rebound through the London high at 158.05 to a 158.245 session high. Price is now easing off that high with RSI(14) near 61, despite the digest's yen-firming tone on softer Treasury yields.
Support: 158.05, 157.90, 157.546
Resistance: 158.245, 158.38
What it said to watch
Holding the London high at 158.05 keeps the post-sweep recovery intact; a break back below exposes the fib 50% near 157.90
An M15 close above the 158.245 session high opens the prior high at 158.38
A return below the 157.546 session low invalidates the sweep-and-reverse read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 157.55, Asian range reclaimed, testing session high.
The 12:30 UTC PPI print whipsawed the pair 157.75–158.19. NY then swept the Asian range low to the ny low at 157.55 and reversed through the london high at 158.05 to a session high of 158.25. RSI(14) is near 65, and bar ranges have compressed in the last hour beneath the prior high at 158.38.
Support: 158.05, 157.90, 157.55
Resistance: 158.25, 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
Close back below the london high at 158.05 (Asian range top) undercuts the reversal; the fib 50% at 157.90 comes next
Acceptance above the prior high at 158.38 opens the round number at 158.50
Loss of the ny low at 157.55 restores the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery after Asian-low sweep, higher lows off 157.55.
The US PPI release spiked the pair to 158.185 and fully reversed it. Early NY then swept the Asian low to a 157.55 day low before a V-shaped recovery took price through the 158.05 Asian high. Price is now pressing the 158.22 session high late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 64, firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.05, 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.22, 158.38, 158.50
What it said to watch
Holding above the 158.05 Asian high keeps the breakout intact; a return below it reopens the prior range
A close above the 158.22 session high exposes the 158.38 prior high and the 158.50 round number
A break of the 50% fib at 157.88 on the rebound puts the 157.55 day low back in focus
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher high printed late NY · RSI 58 · price 158.133
Post-data sweep of the Asian low reversed into a break above the London high.
Hot US PPI produced a two-way spike at 12:30 UTC before a sweep of the Asian low to 157.55, which reversed sharply as the yen-led USD fade stalled. The NY rally cleared the 158.05 london high and printed a 158.21 session high; price is now consolidating just below it, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s.
Support: 158.05, 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.05 london high returns price to the London range
Close above 158.21 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.38 prior high
Loss of the fib 50% at 157.88 exposes the 157.55 ny low
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-reversal after Asian-low sweep; HH/HL chain since 14:15 UTC.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales whipsaw dragged price through the Asian low at 157.58 to a 157.55 session low as yields slid. NY then staged a V-shaped recovery that reclaimed the london high at 158.05 and tagged a 158.21 session high. RSI(14) near 61 leaves room before extremes, and the 157.88 fib 50 marks the midpoint of the rebound.
Support: 158.05, 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.21 session high exposes 158.38 prior high from Wednesday's NY bounce
Loss of 158.05 london high puts the 157.88 fib 50 back in play
Break back below 157.55 session low would void the false break read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 UTC could shift the yield-driven read
NY sweep of the Asian low at 157.55, then a V-reversal through the London high.
The hot PPI print spiked the pair to 158.19 and was fully faded to a NY low at 157.55, sweeping the Asian range floor. Price then reversed through the london high at 158.05 to a new session high at 158.21 during the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 61 and nowhere near stretched.
Support: 158.05, 157.88, 157.55
Resistance: 158.21, 158.38
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london high at 158.05 puts the breakout back inside the day's range, with the fib 50% at 157.88 next
An M15 close above the prior high at 158.38 extends the higher-high sequence; rejection at the 158.21 session high leaves a lower-high risk
A return below the 157.55 ny low invalidates the reversal read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
V-recovery from 157.55 low, back above 158.05 range top.
The 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales spike to the 158.185 data high reversed fast as yields slid. The drop swept the Asian range low and printed a 157.546 session low before a false break back up. Mid-NY, price has reclaimed the 158.05 range top, which capped Asia and London, and has retraced most of the data spike fib on a rising post-data trendline, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 158.05, 157.672, 157.546
Resistance: 158.185, 158.381
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.185 data high opens the 158.381 prior high from late yesterday
Slip back below the 158.05 range top puts the london low at 157.672 back in focus
Break of the 157.546 session low invalidates the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh at Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.55–158.06 range since Asia; price retesting range top mid-NY session.
The 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales release spiked USD/JPY to a 158.19 data spike that was rejected, and the drop briefly swept the Asian low with a 157.55 NY low before a 50-pip rebound. Price is now pressing the 158.06 range top that also capped Asia and London, with RSI(14) near 60 and the ema20 near 157.88 underneath. The digest frames the broader yen tone as firmer on falling yields and intervention talk, which the rebound has not yet challenged above the range top.
Support: 157.88, 157.67, 157.55
Resistance: 158.06, 158.19, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.06 range top opens the 158.19 data spike high, then the 158.38 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Rejection at the range top and a close back under the ema20 at 157.88 returns price to the middle of the range, with the 157.67 london low next
Loss of the 157.55 ny low would turn the sweep into a lower low and break the range
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh on Fri could materially shift this read
A pullback holding the 50–61.8% zone of the ny rebound fib keeps the recovery structure intact
14:46 UTC
Down from 158.38, rebounding after data whipsaw · RSI 53 · price 157.908
NY false break below Asian low reclaimed; 157.55–158.19 range.
The hot US PPI and retail sales beat at 12:30 GMT spiked the pair to 158.19. That data spike was rejected in the same bar, and the slide ran to a 157.55 session low, briefly under the Asian low near 157.58, before being reclaimed in one bar. Price at 157.91 is stalling just below the 157.96 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the post-data fall, with ATR elevated at ~16 pips.
Support: 157.67, 157.55
Resistance: 157.96, 158.05, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 bounce high and the 158.05 london high reopens the 158.19 data spike
Loss of the 157.67 london low exposes the 157.55 session low; a close below it negates the false break
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Sideways after overnight decline, two-way post-data chop · RSI 55 · price 157.904
NY swept the Asian low and reversed; price back mid-range at 157.55–158.05.
Hot US PPI and retail sales spiked the pair to the 158.185 data spike high at 12:30 GMT. That move faded fast, and NY broke the Asian low at 157.58 to a 157.546 NY low before a 35-pip reversal bar. Price is now testing the 61.8% of the post-data fib, back inside the session range below the 158.05 range top.
Support: 157.67, 157.546
Resistance: 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 range top reopens the 158.185 data spike high
Failure to hold the 157.67 london low puts the 157.546 ny low and the 157.50 range floor back in play
Hammack (20:30 GMT) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, range floor giving way · RSI 38 · price 157.575
Post-PPI lower highs; Asian low broken in NY session.
The hot US PPI spiked the pair to the ppi high at 158.185, but that move was fully rejected within the 12:30 GMT bar. NY session has since printed lower highs and broken the Asian low near 157.58, printing a session low at 157.546 after London-to-midday held a 157.67–158.05 range. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched, and ATR has roughly doubled since the release.
Support: 157.546, 157.50
Resistance: 157.672, 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 157.50 round number extends the range break below the floor
Recovery back above the london low at 157.67 would turn the break into a false break
Only a close back above the 158.05 range top undoes the PPI rejection
Monthly Budget Statement (18:00 GMT) and Fed's Hammack (20:30 GMT) could shift the read on US yields
14:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalled into a range · RSI 49 · price 157.784
Range 157.58–158.05 since Asia; post-PPI lower highs.
The hot US PPI and retail sales data at 12:30 GMT pushed the pair through the 158.05 asian high to a 158.185 ppi spike. Price fell back inside the same bar, and the first hour of NY has printed post-PPI lower highs, with the 157.95 lower high the latest. The 157.63 ppi low is holding just above the 157.58 asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 as falling yields offset the data.
Support: 157.63, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.95, 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
A close below the 157.58 asian low opens the 157.50 range floor flagged in the yen digest
A close back above the 157.95 lower high and the 158.05 asian high negates the post-PPI rejection; the 158.185 ppi spike is the next cap
Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh on Fri at 03:30 GMT could shift the yield-driven read
13:46 UTC
Range, offered after failed data spike · RSI 44 · price 157.671
London range 157.67–158.05; PPI spike above it reversed, price back at range floor.
The hot 12:30 GMT US PPI and retail sales data briefly lifted price through the london high at 158.05 to a ppi spike of 158.19. The move fully reversed within the bar, a false break, and early NY hours are now pressing the london low at 157.67. Lower highs since yesterday's 158.38 cap the session, and the asian low at 157.58 is the next floor.
Support: 157.67, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 157.67 exposes the asian low at 157.58 and the 157.50 range floor
Recovery above the london high at 158.05 would neutralise the false-break read; 158.19 ppi spike is the next cap
A break of the lower highs line from 158.38 would change the intraday structure
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT and Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT could materially shift US yields and this read
13:31 UTC
Sideways, two-way after data spike · RSI 53 · price 157.842
London range 157.67–158.05 intact; failed upside break on US PPI, rising lows below.
The hot US PPI and retail sales beat at 12:30 GMT spiked USDJPY to 158.185, but the push above the 158.05 London high failed and fully reversed to the 157.745 post-PPI low. Price is back inside the London range and the Asian range, pinned just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53. The rising lows line from the 157.67 London low is still intact.
Support: 157.745, 157.672, 157.58
Resistance: 157.954, 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
Close below the 157.745 post-PPI low and the rising lows line exposes the 157.67 London low, then the 157.58 Asian low
Failure at 157.67 opens the 157.50 range floor flagged in the yen digest
Recovery above the 157.95 bounce high and a close above the 158.05 London high negates the false-break read and puts the 158.185 PPI spike back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT could shift UST yields and this range
13:16 UTC
Intraday range, heavy after PPI spike reversal · RSI 50 · price 157.771
PPI spike above London high to 158.185 fully rejected; price back near London low inside the 157.58–158.05 day range.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC spiked USD/JPY through the London high at 158.05 to a PPI high of 158.185. The move fully reversed within two bars, retracing roughly 80% of the pre-PPI rally fib back toward the London low at 157.67. Early NY now sits inside the day range above the Asia low at 157.58, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) around 12 pips.
Support: 157.67, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.67 London low exposes the 157.58 Asia low, the floor of today's range
Failure to hold 157.58 confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
An M15 close back above the 158.05 London high would undo the PPI rejection read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
False break above Asian high, price back inside 157.58–158.05 Asian range.
The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC spiked price through the asian high at 158.05 to 158.185. That bar reversed in full, and follow-through has retraced about 80% of the London rally off the 157.67 london low, leaving price near 157.77 below EMA20/EMA50. Supply capping above 158.05 despite the USD-positive data fits the digest's yield-driven, intervention-capped yen picture.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.185
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.67 london low exposes the 157.58 asia low and the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of the 158.05 asian high would negate the false-break read; the ppi spike high at 158.185 is the next cap
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via US yields
12:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 67 · price 158.053
HH/HL chain off 157.67 double low, testing Asian range top.
Since the London low double-tapped 157.67, price has built higher lows and highs through the morning, retracing a soft-yield, yen-firm Asian slide to the 157.58 asian low. The 12:30 UTC US data bar spiked to a 158.16 release high above the Asian high near 158.05, then gave back over half. Price now sits on the 158.00 round number pivot and the 61.8% retrace of the 158.38–157.58 decline. RSI(14) is near 67, not stretched.
Support: 158.00, 157.67, 157.58
Resistance: 158.16, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.00 round number puts the data spike back inside the Asian range
M15 close above the 158.16 release high opens the 158.38 swing high, the top of the decline fib
Failure to hold the 157.67 london low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 157.58 asian low next
Follow-through from PPI/retail sales via US yields could materially shift this read within the next few bars
12:31 UTC
Range after post-CPI selloff, short-term bid · RSI 61 · price 157.997
157.58–158.05 range, higher lows into range top.
The fully reversed hot-CPI spike from 158.95 left a 157.58 asian low, and price has ranged since, with London capping at the 158.05 range top and double-bottoming at the 157.67 london low. A higher low at 157.72 has lifted price back into a retest of 158.00–158.05, between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the post-CPI fib, just as US PPI and retail sales land.
Support: 157.72, 157.67, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC can break the 157.58–158.05 range either way; ATR near 9 pips will likely expand
M15 close above the 158.05 range top opens the 158.38 swing high
Loss of the 157.72 higher low and rising support puts the london low at 157.67, then the asian low at 157.58, back in play
Double base at 157.67 in London, HL chain pressing 158.00.
USD/JPY has fully unwound yesterday's CPI spike to 158.95 as US yields slid, bottoming at the 157.58 Asian low before London built a double base at the 157.67 London low. A chain of higher lows since has lifted price to 157.93, just above the 23.6% level of the CPI fade fib and under the 158.05 London high, with US PPI and retail sales due at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 157.795, 157.672, 157.58
Resistance: 158.046, 158.30
What it said to watch
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read; event range likely exceeds the ~10-pip ATR
M15 close above the 158.05 London high opens the 158.30 prior shelf from yesterday's NY session
Break of the 157.80 higher low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 157.67 London low
Failure to hold the 157.58 Asian low confirms a lower-low toward the 157.50 range floor
Lower highs from 158.95; London compressing 157.67–157.89.
USD/JPY extended the hot-CPI reversal from 158.95 overnight as US yields slid, printing an asian low at 157.58. London open capped at 158.05 (london high), and the london drop held 157.67 twice. Price now sits near the 38.2% retrace of that leg, in a tight 157.67–157.89 box below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 ahead of US data.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) are likely to resolve the 157.67–157.89 box; ATR is only ~10 pips going in
M15 close below the 157.67 london low exposes the 157.58 asian low and the 157.50 range floor
M15 close above the 157.89 lower high opens 158.05; a break of the london high ends the lower-high sequence
11:31 UTC
Down from the post-CPI high, now flat · RSI 45 · price 157.813
Range 157.67–157.88 inside 157.58–158.05 Asian/London band.
USDJPY has fully unwound the hot-CPI spike to 158.95 as US yields slid, printing a session low at 157.58 in Asia. London faded the open from the 158.05 London high, and buyers stepped in twice at the 157.67 London low, near the 78.6% fib of the Asian bounce. Price is now mid-range under the 157.88 lower high, with ATR near 10 pips ahead of the data.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 158.05
What it said to watch
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; a soft batch puts the 157.50 range floor in play
M15 close below the 157.67 London low exposes the 157.58 session low
Close above the 157.88 lower high reopens the 158.05 London high
Japanese intervention rhetoric would cap any data-driven spike back toward 158.05
Lower highs from 158.95; London double low at 157.67 above Asia low.
The post-CPI unwind from 158.95 ran through Asia to the 157.58 asia low as US yields eased. London was capped at the 158.05 asia high, then printed a double low at the 157.67 london low. Price is hugging the ema20 near 157.81, at the 38.2% of the London leg fib, ahead of US data, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 157.89 swing high (61.8% of the London leg fib) exposes the 158.05 asia high and the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 157.67 london low and the 157.58 asia low exposes the 157.50 range floor
10:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 157.80
Inside Asian range, lower highs vs London double low at 157.67.
USD/JPY is rotating inside the 157.58–158.05 Asian range after the post-CPI reversal from 158.95 as US yields slid. Mid-London, two tests of the 157.67 London low held at the 78.6% retrace of the Asia rally fib, while the 157.89 lower high and the lower-high line from 158.38 cap the bounce. RSI(14) near 47 with price on the EMA20 shows no momentum ahead of US data.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.89 lower high confirms the London double bottom and opens a retest of the 158.05 asia high
Close below the 157.58 asia low exposes the 157.50 range floor flagged in the digest
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 158.95 CPI spike; London holding a 157.67–157.89 band above the Asian low.
The CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound as US yields fell, printing an Asian low at 157.58. London opened with a false break of the Asian range top at the 158.05 London high, then rejected to a 157.67 session low, with the 157.89 lower high capping the bounce inside the 38.2% fib of the CPI-high-to-Asian-low leg.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.67 session low exposes the 157.58 Asian low and the 157.50 range floor
Close above the 157.89 lower high and the falling trendline weakens the lower-high sequence; 158.05 London high next
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 38 · price 157.707
Lower highs from 158.05, London low 157.67 tested twice.
The Asia rebound stalled at the 158.05 session high on London open, and London has since carved lower highs, the latest at 157.89, with the 157.67 London low tested twice. Price sits near the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally, just above the 157.58 Asia low, as falling US yields and JPY firmness keep the post-CPI reversal intact.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.67 London low breaks the double-tested floor and exposes the 157.58 Asia low
Failure at the 157.50 range floor would extend the post-CPI reversal
Close above the 157.89 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 158.05 session high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
The post-CPI decline from the 158.95 high continues. London was rejected at the 158.03 Asian high and printed a lower high at 157.89, which lines up with the 23.6% fib. Price is now testing the 157.67 session low as falling US yields and hawkish BoJ commentary keep the yen firm.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.89, 158.03
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.58 Asian low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Close above the 157.89 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens 158.03
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs below falling trendline; holding above Asian low.
London rejected the Asian high at 158.05 and slid to a 157.67 london low. The 09:15 UTC bounce stalled at 157.89, the 38.2% fib of the 158.38–157.58 leg, for another lower high under the falling trendline, while the 157.58 Asian low holds. Falling US yields and hawkish BoJ rhetoric keep JPY firm mid-London, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.673, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.894, 158.046
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.58 asian low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.50 round number (range floor)
Close above the 157.89 lower high, then the 158.05 asian high, breaks the trendline and the lower-high sequence
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since post-CPI peak; London bounce stalling below 50% retrace.
Mid-London: the open's push above the Asian range top to the 158.05 london high failed and price dropped to the 157.67 london low. The bounce stalled at the 50% retrace near 157.87, keeping the lower-highs sequence from the 158.95 post-CPI peak intact as falling US yields and hawkish BoJ talk support the yen.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.87, 158.05
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales / PPI / claims at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.58 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.50 range floor
M15 close above the 158.05 london high negates the false break and the lower-highs trendline
09:16 UTC
Downtrend from post-CPI high, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 157.84
Asian range 157.58–158.05 intact, London higher low at 157.67.
USD/JPY has bled roughly 110 pips from the 158.95 post-CPI spike as US yields reversed, and it carved a 157.58–158.05 Asian range. The London open rejected the session high at 158.05, and the pullback held a higher low at the 157.67 london low. Price now sits mid-range, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.87, 158.05
What it said to watch
US PPI / Retail Sales / claims bundle at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above 157.87 bounce high, then 158.05 session high, breaks the London rejection read
Failure to hold the 157.67 london low and 157.58 asian low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Break of the higher low trendline signals the range is giving way to the downside
Lower highs from 158.95; higher low at 157.67 inside 157.58–158.05.
USD/JPY has fully faded the CPI spike to 158.95 as US yields slid and BoJ's Koeda sounded hawkish, printing lower highs at the 158.38 swing high and the 158.05 London high. Early London saw a rejection at 158.05, and the dip found a floor at the 157.67 London low, above the 157.58 Asian low. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
Break of the 157.58 Asian low exposes the 157.50 range floor
M15 close above the 158.05 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 157.67 London low erases the higher low
US Retail Sales/PPI bundle at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, London fade after Asian bounce · RSI 36 · price 157.722
Lower highs from 158.95 post-CPI peak; failed push above the Asian high.
London open briefly cleared the Asian high to 158.05, then reversed and broke the 157.88 breakdown level. Price has since given back most of the bounce off the 157.58 Asian low and sits near the London low at 157.67, the 78.6% retrace of that bounce. RSI(14) is around 36 as the fade of the post-CPI spike extends on sliding US yields.
Support: 157.67, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
Close below the 157.58 Asian low prints a fresh lower-low and exposes the 157.50 range floor
Recovery back above the 157.88 breakdown level and the 158.05 London high negates the false break; above that, the 158.38 swing high is next
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower high at London open · RSI 40 · price 157.794
Lower highs from 158.95 CPI spike; Asian high rejected, price sliding back into Asian range.
The post-CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound as US yields slumped. The Asia bounce off the 157.58 Asian low stalled at the 158.05 Asian high, just under the 38.2% CPI fade fib. London open rejected that level and printed a 157.73 London low. RSI(14) near 40 sits mid-range and a lower-high chain remains intact under the trendline from the 158.38 swing high.
Support: 157.734, 157.58
Resistance: 158.046, 158.381
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales/PPI/claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Break of the 157.73 London low exposes the 157.58 Asian low and the 157.50 range floor
M15 close above the 158.05 Asian high and trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence; 158.38 swing high next
Lower high at 158.05 after the Asia rebound; London is testing the 157.84 swing low.
London open was rejected at the 158.05 London high, just above the Asian range top. Price has slipped back to the 157.84 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Asia recovery fib off the 157.58 Asia low. The wider slide follows the full unwind of yesterday's CPI spike toward 159.00 as US yields fell.
Support: 157.84, 157.76, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.84 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 157.76, then the 157.58 Asia low
Reclaim of the 158.05 London high reopens the 158.38 late-NY high
US PPI / Retail Sales / claims cluster at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, stalling below 158.05 · RSI 56 · price 157.949
Double bottom at 157.58–157.59, higher lows, tight range under session high.
The post-CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound as US yields fell, with two Asian tests of the 157.58 asian low forming a double bottom that cleared the 157.78 neckline. Early London is compressing between the 157.84 swing low and the 158.05 session high, with EMA50 near 158.00 capping and rising lows still intact.
Support: 157.84, 157.78, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.17, 158.38
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.05 session high exits the range and opens the 158.17 asia open high, then the 158.38 prior high
Loss of the 157.84 swing low breaks the rising lows and puts the 157.78 neckline back in play
A break below the 157.58 asian low negates the double bottom
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, stalling under 158.05 · RSI 59 · price 157.973
Higher lows pressing a flat 158.05 cap, inside the Asian range.
The post-CPI unwind bottomed in a double bottom at the 157.58 Asia low as US yields fell. The late-Asia recovery has stalled at the 158.05 session high into London open, near the 50% fib of the 158.38–157.58 drop, with EMA50 overhead near 158.03. Higher lows at the 157.84 swing low and the 157.88 higher low are compressing price beneath the cap along a rising trendline.
Support: 157.88, 157.84, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 session high breaks the cap and opens the 158.38 prior high
Loss of the 157.88 higher low and rising trendline reopens the 157.84 swing low, then the 157.58 Asia low
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling at 158.05 · RSI 61 · price 157.994
Higher lows pressing a flat 158.00–158.05 cap.
The post-CPI spike to 158.95 has fully unwound as US yields fell. Asia printed a 157.58 low, and the recovery since has built rising lows. In early London session the 158.05 session high is capping repeated tests, with EMA50 near 158.02 sitting on that cap and RSI(14) at about 61.
Support: 157.84, 157.58
Resistance: 158.05, 158.10, 158.38
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.05 session high breaks the cap and brings the 38.2% fib near 158.10 and the 158.38 swing high into view
Losing the rising lows line and the 157.84 pullback low returns focus to the 157.58 asian low
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Recovering within Asian range after post-CPI sell-off · RSI 60 · price 157.90
Higher lows off 157.58 double bottom, capped below Asian high at London open.
The post-CPI unwind from 158.95 as US yields fell bottomed in a 157.58–158.03 Asian range, with a double bottom at the asian low. Price sits just below the asian high at London open, where rejection has come three times near the 50–61.8% fib of the 158.38–157.58 leg. Higher lows at the 157.84 swing low keep the rising trendline intact.
Support: 157.84, 157.58
Resistance: 158.03, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.03 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 158.38 swing high
Failure to hold the 157.84 swing low breaks the rising trendline and returns focus to the 157.58 asian low
US retail sales / PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 66 · price 158.01
Higher lows since 157.58, capped at 158.03 session high.
The CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound as US yields slid. Asia carved a double bottom at the 157.58 Asia low, and the rebound into London open has stalled three times at the 158.03 session high, which is also the 50% retracement of the 158.38 swing high to 157.58 leg. Higher lows at 157.85 sit underneath, with price above EMA20 and pinned at EMA50 near 158.00.
Support: 157.85, 157.58
Resistance: 158.03, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.03 session high opens the path to the 158.38 swing high
Break of the 157.85 higher low puts the 157.58 Asia low back in focus, with the 157.50 range floor below
US Retail Sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
The post-CPI round-trip from 158.95 extended into an Asian low at 157.58, where a double bottom formed. The rebound has stalled at the 50% retrace of the slide from the 158.38 ny bounce hi, with four rejections at the 158.02 asian high. Higher lows at 157.84 keep the recovery intact into London open, with RSI(14) near 58 and price above EMA20 but pinned at EMA50.
Support: 157.84, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.02, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.02 asian high clears the 50% retrace and opens the path to the 158.38 ny bounce hi
Break of the 157.84 higher low (rising trendline) brings the 157.58 asian low back into play
Loss of 157.58 exposes the 157.50 range floor
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, testing 158.00 · RSI 64 · price 158.01
Double bottom at 157.58/157.59, higher low at 157.84.
The post-CPI unwind ran through the Asian session to a 157.58 low as US yields reversed. A double bottom there broke the 157.58–157.79 range at 04:00 UTC, and a higher low at the 157.84 swing low has price back at the 158.02 session high and EMA50 ahead of the London open. RSI(14) is near 64; the 158.08 fib 61.8 of the 158.38–157.58 leg sits just overhead.
Support: 157.84, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.02, 158.08, 158.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.08 fib 61.8 opens the 158.29 breakdown shelf from the late NY session
Rejection at the 158.02 session high and a loss of the 157.84 swing low break the higher-low trendline, pointing back to the 157.58 asian low
A break of the 157.58 asian low exposes the 157.50 range floor
12:30 UTC US PPI / Retail Sales / Claims cluster could materially shift this read
London open in ~30 minutes is likely to set the next session range
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 58 · price 157.896
Lower highs from 158.95 CPI top; Asia double bottom at 157.58, rebound capped at 158.01.
Asia extended the post-CPI unwind to the 157.58 asian low as US yields slid, and a double bottom there fed a rebound that met rejection at the 158.01 asian high. That high sits just under the broken 158.05 NY low and between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the downleg fib. Price is holding above the 157.84 pullback low ahead of London open, above EMA20 but still under EMA50.
Support: 157.84, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.01, 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 ny low breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.38 ny bounce in view
Failure to hold the 157.84 pullback low and the asia upleg trendline reopens the 157.58 asian low
A break of the asian low exposes the 157.50 range floor
London open in ~1h may test both edges of the Asian range
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 159.00 intervention cap limits upside reaction
Lower highs from 158.95; double bottom at 157.58; neckline 157.79 broken.
The Asia session extended the post-CPI reversal from 158.95 to a 157.58 low as US yields slid. A double bottom there broke the 157.79 neckline. The rebound is stalling at the 158.00 round number, around the EMA50, with RSI(14) near 61 late in the Asian range ahead of London open.
Support: 157.79, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.17, 158.38
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 158.17 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 158.38 prior swing next
A close back below the 157.79 neckline puts the 157.58 dbl bottom low back in play
A break of 157.58 exposes the 157.50 range base
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend off CPI high, Asia rebound in play · RSI 66 · price 157.984
Lower highs from 158.946; Asia double bottom at 157.58, recovery testing 158.00.
The CPI spike to 158.946 fully unwound as US yields slid, and Asia extended the drop to a 157.58 low before a double bottom with 157.593 formed. Late Asia broke the 157.785 range top and has lifted to the 158.00 round number, which lines up with EMA50, the 50% fib and the 158.045 NY low.
Support: 157.898, 157.785, 157.58
Resistance: 158.00, 158.045, 158.381
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.045 NY low reclaims lost ground and exposes the 158.381 prior high
Rejection at the 158.00 round number with a break of the 157.898 higher low puts the 157.785 range top back in focus
Loss of the 157.58 Asia low resumes the downtrend toward 157.50
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.38 broken; double bottom at 157.58, rebound capped near 158.00.
The post-CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound as US yields slid. Asia extended the drop to a 157.58 session low, where a double bottom formed before a falling trendline break carried price back to the round number at 158.00, the Asian range top and 50% fib. Price is above EMA20 but below EMA50 into the London open, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 157.82, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.05, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 round number and 50% fib exposes the 158.05 NY low, then the 158.38 NY swing hi
Loss of the 157.82 pivot returns focus to the 157.58 session low; a break there opens the 157.50 range base
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.95; double bottom at 157.58 retesting 158.00.
USD/JPY gave back the whole hot-CPI spike to 158.95 as US yields reversed, and the slide extended to 157.58 in the Asia session. A double bottom at 157.58/157.59 has lifted price off the lows through the 157.82 breakout area. Price is now pressing the 158.00 Asian high with RSI(14) near 67, still below the 23.6% fib area of the CPI-high-to-low decline.
Support: 157.82, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.16, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.00 Asian high opens a test of the 158.16 lower high; above that, the 158.38 NY high
Slip back below the 157.82 breakout area weakens the double-bottom read
Break of 157.58 double btm exposes the 157.50 range floor and resumes the lower-low sequence
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.95; double bottom 157.58, range top broken.
The post-CPI unwind from 158.95 extended in Asia as US yields reversed, with price forming a double bottom at the 157.58 asian low. The 04:00 UTC bar broke the 157.79 range top, and price now sits near the 50% retracement of the 158.38 late ny high to 157.58 leg, just under the 158.04 ny swing low. RSI(14) is near 66 and price is above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 157.79, 157.58
Resistance: 158.04, 158.17, 158.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.04 ny swing low (61.8% at 158.08) opens the 158.17 lower high, then the 158.38 late ny high
Slip back below the 157.79 range top returns price to the Asian range, with the 157.58 asian low back in focus
London open in ~2h could test the Asia-session bounce
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend since CPI peak, basing late in Asia · RSI 60 · price 157.883
Lower highs from 158.95; Asian range 157.58–157.79 now breaking to the upside.
The CPI spike to 158.95 fully reversed through NY as US yields slid, and Asia extended the slide to a 157.58 asian low. A double base at 157.58/157.59 held, and the current bar is clearing the 157.785 range top. Price is pressing the 38.2% fib near 157.89, just under the 157.94 swing high and the 158.00 round number.
Support: 157.785, 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.94, 158.00, 158.075
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 157.785 range top marks the break as false and returns price to the Asian range
Acceptance above the 157.94 swing high and 158.00 round number opens the 61.8% fib at 158.075
Loss of the 157.58 asian low confirms a lower low toward the 157.50 range floor
US PPI / Retail Sales / claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read; London open is about 2h away
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 51 · price 157.822
Lower highs off 158.95 double top; Asian box 157.58–157.78 just pushed higher.
The hot-CPI spike double-topped at 158.95 and fully unwound through NY as US yields slid. Asia extended the drop to the 157.58 asia low. The latest bar has lifted through the 157.78 range top, with RSI(14) back near 51 and price above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 157.78, 157.58
Resistance: 157.94, 158.05
What it said to watch
Holding above the 157.78 range top keeps the Asian basing read; a slip back below returns price to the 157.58–157.78 box
Close above the 157.94 lower high (near fib 23.6% of the 158.95–157.58 drop) opens the 158.05 ny low
Failure to hold the 157.58 asia low confirms a lower-low toward 157.50
US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI spike fully reversed; tight base above session low in mid-Asia.
USD/JPY fully reversed the post-CPI spike to 158.95 as US yields slid. It extended lower through the Asia session to a one-week session low at 157.58. Selling has paused mid-Asia session, with price holding a 157.58–157.785 range below the range top, RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 12 pips.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.785, 158.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
M15 close above the 157.785 range top opens the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg near 157.89 and the 158.00 round number
US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (about 8h) could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown below NY low, now a tight range capped by lower highs.
The Asia session extended the post-CPI reversal from 158.95, cutting through the 158.05 NY low to a 157.58 session low as US yields slid and the yen firmed. Since 01:45 UTC price has compressed between the session low and a 157.78 range top, with lower highs pressing the floor and RSI(14) near 31, not yet oversold.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.785, 157.939, 158.045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 round number, the digest's range floor
Close above the 157.78 range top shifts focus to the 157.94 swing high, near the 38.2% level of the Asia drop fib
Reclaim of the 158.05 NY low would negate the Asia breakdown
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 157.678
Lower highs from 158.946; tight Asian range 157.58–157.785.
The CPI spike to 158.946 in the NY session fully reversed as US yields slid. Lower highs at 158.381 and the 157.939 swing high carried price to a 157.58 session low in Asia. Since then price has held a tight 157.58–157.785 range, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.785, 157.939, 158.045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.785 range top opens the 157.939 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 157.89
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 round number, the digest's range floor
Reclaiming the 158.045 NY low (near the 61.8% fib) would negate the lower-high sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.95 double top, basing in 157.58–157.78 band.
The post-CPI spike failed twice at 158.95, and the resulting double top unwound the full move during NY hours as US yields slid. The Asia session extended the decline to a session low at 157.58 from the 158.00 Asia high. Since 01:45 UTC price has been basing in a 157.58–157.78 band, pressing the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.785, 158.00, 158.10
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.78 micro high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 158.00 Asia high next
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
A rebound into 158.10, the fib 38.2 of the CPI-high selloff, is the first real test of the downtrend read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY CPI fade; tight base 157.58–157.79 in mid-Asia.
The CPI spike to 158.946 fully reversed as US yields fell. Asia then broke the ny low at 158.045 and printed a session low at 157.58, with each swing high lower down to 157.785. The last six bars are holding 157.58–157.79 under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 34, off oversold.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.785, 157.94, 158.045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.785 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 157.94 swing high is next overhead
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off the lows · RSI 33 · price 157.71
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY CPI peak; Asia below the NY low.
The CPI spike to 158.95 in the NY session fully reversed as US yields slid. Asia has extended the decline through the ny low at 158.05 to a session low at 157.58, with the descending trendline from 158.34 capping each bounce. The latest bounce high at 157.79 met rejection at the line, RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR is about 12 pips.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.94, 158.045
What it said to watch
A close above 157.79 breaks the descending trendline; above the 157.94 swing high, the lower-high chain is broken
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 round number range floor
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 31 · price 157.709
Lower highs and lows since post-CPI top; basing above 157.58.
The CPI spike stalled in a double top at 158.95 during NY hours. Price then sold off through the pre-CPI 158.10–158.49 range as US yields faded, and Asia session follow-through set a 157.58 session low. Price is now basing just above that low with RSI(14) near 31, and the lower-high chain stays intact below the 157.94 swing high.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.94, 158.045
What it said to watch
Break below the 157.58 session low extends the lower-low sequence into the 157.50 psych zone
M15 close above the 157.94 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 158.045 NY low near the 61.8% fib
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-CPI high; Asia extending NY's slide.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the post-CPI rejection near 158.95, and the Asia session extended the slide to a 157.58 session low as US yields faded. The bounce off the low stalled at the 157.78 swing high, under the falling trendline. RSI(14) sits near 31, soft but not extreme.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.776, 157.939, 158.04
What it said to watch
A close above the 157.78 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 157.94 lower high, then the 158.04 prior low (NY trough)
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 round number, the floor of the analyst-cited support zone
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 32 · price 157.722
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session.
The post-CPI reversal from 158.95 extended through the Asia session as the yield fade carried over. Price gave up the 158.05 cpi-day low and the 157.85 broken lvl before printing a 157.58 session low around Koeda's 01:30 UTC remarks. Lower highs since late NY, the latest at 157.94, keep the structure pointed down, and RSI(14) near 32 has not reached oversold.
Support: 157.58, 157.50
Resistance: 157.85, 157.94, 158.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.94 lower high breaks the descending sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 157.58 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
157.85 broken lvl is the first area to watch for rejection or reclaim
US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below broken NY low.
The post-CPI reversal from the 158.95 double peak is complete. The Asia session extended the slide through the 158.05 NY low to a session low at 157.64 as US yields faded, with every bounce capped at a lower high along the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 22 is deeply oversold, and ATR is about 13 pips.
Support: 157.64, 157.50
Resistance: 157.94, 158.05, 158.17
What it said to watch
BoJ's Koeda is speaking at 01:30 UTC; a hawkish tilt could extend the leg toward the 157.50 range floor.
A failure to hold the 157.64 session low confirms another lower low.
An M15 close above the 157.94 lower high breaks the trendline sequence and puts the 158.05 NY low in play as a retest.
Reclaiming the 158.17 Asia high would neutralise the Asia downtrend read.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~11h away) could materially shift this read.
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 157.663
Lower highs through Asia; post-CPI low broken.
The post-CPI reversal from 158.95 extended through the Asian session as US yields faded and Japan Machinery Orders beat. The pair broke the 158.045 post-CPI low, then the 157.77 prior low, and printed a session low at 157.644. The Asian selloff shows a clean lower-high chain under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 23 oversold and the 157.50 range floor about 15 pips below.
Support: 157.644, 157.50
Resistance: 157.77, 157.939, 158.045
What it said to watch
BoJ Koeda speaking now (01:30 UTC); a hawkish October signal could press the 157.50 range floor
M15 close back above the 157.939 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Reclaim of 157.77 prior low shifts it back to support; rejection there keeps the selloff structure intact
Failure to hold the 157.644 session low exposes 157.50; the 158.045 post-CPI low caps any bounce
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY bounce · RSI 27 · price 157.856
Lower highs from 158.38; session low 157.76 below broken NY low 158.05.
The CPI spike to 158.95 fully unwound in NY. The Asia session extended the slide after the Japan Machinery Orders beat, breaking the 158.05 NY low and printing a session low at 157.76, with lower highs intact from the 158.38 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR is about 12 pips.
Support: 157.763, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.045, 158.381
What it said to watch
BoJ Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back above the 158.05 NY low, past the 158.00 fib 38.2, challenges the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.76 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of the 158.38 bounce high invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.946 double top; Asia session pressing session lows.
The CPI-day spike stalled in a double top at 158.946. It then fully reversed as US yields eased, and the Asia session broke the 158.045 CPI-day low. Price is sitting just above the 157.763 swing low, with RSI(14) near 26 and each bounce capped by a lower high.
Support: 157.763, 157.50
Resistance: 158.045, 158.165, 158.381
What it said to watch
BoJ Koeda at 01:30 UTC (04:30 broker) could extend JPY strength; a break of the 157.763 swing low exposes the 157.50 range floor
Recovery back above the 158.045 CPI-day low and the 158.165 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 158.381 NY bounce high, beyond the 38.2% CPI-day fib near 158.21, invalidates the downtrend read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.38; NY low at 158.05 broken in Asia.
The post-CPI unwind from 158.95 extended in the Asia session. Price lost the 158.05 NY low after Japan's machinery orders beat and printed a session low at 157.82, into the 157.80/157.85 support area. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, and the lower-high sequence off the 158.38 bounce is intact below the 158.26–158.34 asia range.
Support: 157.82, 157.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.29
What it said to watch
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 157.82 session low exposes the 157.50 range floor
A close back above the 158.05 ny low (38.2% of the drop fib) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Recovery into the 158.29 asia range would neutralise the lower-high sequence
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 19 · price 157.852
Lower highs from 158.95 double top, NY low broken in Asia.
Early Asia session has extended the post-CPI unwind from the 158.95 double top. Price broke the 158.045 NY low around the strong Japan machinery orders beat and set a new asia low at 157.83. RSI(14) near 19 is oversold, and the lower-highs line from the 158.38 bounce high is intact.
Support: 157.832, 157.50
Resistance: 158.045, 158.165, 158.381
What it said to watch
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery back above the 158.045 ny low puts the breakdown in question
Close above the 158.165 swing high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 157.83 asia low opens the 157.50 range low
158.38 bounce high sits near the 38.2–50% retracement of the post-CPI drop
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into Asia · RSI 21 · price 157.952
Lower highs and lower lows from a 158.95 double top; pre-CPI range floor broken.
The hot US CPI spike stalled in a double top at 158.95, just shy of the 159.00 intervention zone, and the move has fully unwound. Supply returned in the Asia session, taking out the post-CPI low at 158.05 and printing a 157.88 session low just above the 157.85 range floor, with RSI(14) near 21.
Support: 157.88, 157.85
Resistance: 158.05, 158.29, 158.50
What it said to watch
BoJ's Koeda at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt puts the 157.85 range floor in play
Failure to hold the 157.88 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery back above the post-CPI low at 158.05 would mark the Asian break as a false break
The 38.2% fib at 158.29 lines up with the late-NY shelf; rejection there keeps the lower-high chain intact, while a close above the pre-CPI top at 158.50 negates it
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 24 · price 158.002
Lower highs and lows since the post-CPI double top at 158.95.
The hot-CPI spike to 158.95 formed a double top and the move has fully unwound. Price is through the prior Asian low at 158.11 and the 158.04 ny low, printing a fresh session low near 157.98 early in the Asia session. Lower highs sit at 158.38 (swing high) and 158.17 (lower high), and RSI(14) is oversold near 24.
Support: 157.978, 157.85
Resistance: 158.045, 158.381
What it said to watch
BoJ Koeda speech at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
An M15 close back above the 158.04 ny low would flag the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 157.98 session low exposes the 157.85 range floor from the pre-CPI holding pattern
An M15 close above the 158.38 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence