Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:03 UTC
Downtrend paused, range-bound · RSI 55 · price 158.151
Lower highs since the July peak; 156.40–159.00 range for three weeks.
USDJPY has printed lower highs since the 163.99 July peak. Breaks on Jul 30 and Sep 2 carried price to the 152.89 sept low. The rebound has since stalled into a 156.40–159.00 range, retracing the September drop, and the 159 cap rejected on Sep 24 and again on Oct 14. Falling US yields and Tokyo intervention warnings have absorbed the hot US CPI and PPI prints. Price sits on a flat EMA(50) near 158.10, with the 61.8% fib aligned with the 157.50 range floor below and the 78.6% near 158.80 just under the cap.
Support: 157.50, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159 cap (158.95–159.03) breaks the range and opens the path to the 160.39 sept high
- Failure to hold the 157.50 range floor and 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 156.38 swing low
- A break of the 156.38 swing low resumes the lower-high, lower-low chain toward the 152.89 sept low
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC; the US yield reaction could materially shift this read
17:14 UTC
Transitioning, lower highs since July, flat since late Sep · RSI 54 · price 157.923
Lower highs below the 163.99 July peak; 156.4–159.0 range with contracting ATR.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since the late-July peak at 163.99. The early-September flush to the 152.89 Sept low gave way to a recovery that stalled at 159.03, near the 78.6% level of the Sept swing fib. For three weeks price has rotated in a 156.40–159.00 range. Wednesday's hot US CPI spike was met by a second rejection near 159.00, as MoF intervention warnings capped the topside, and today's hot PPI failed to lift the pair as Treasury yields eased. Price sits just above EMA(20) but below a flattening EMA(50) near 158.21, with ATR contracting to about 100 pips as the range compresses above the 157.44 range floor and the late-Sept swing low at 156.38.
Support: 157.44, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 158.21, 159.03, 160.39
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 157.44 range floor (61.8% of the Sept swing) exposes the 156.38 swing low; losing that brings the 152.89 Sept low back into view
- Daily close above the 159.03 rejection high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 160.39 prior high
- Fed Chair Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri) is the key yield catalyst: a hawkish lean could see a retest of the ema50 and the 159.00 zone, a patient tone a test of the range floor
- Escalation in MoF/Katayama FX warnings near 159.00 would reinforce the range cap