21:03 UTC
Downtrend from July high, now basing in a range · RSI 54 · price 157.975
Lower highs 163.99 / 160.39 / 159.03, higher low 156.38 after the 152.89 Sept low; compressing 157.50–159.03 range.
A two-leg decline from the 163.99 July high, the late-July collapse and then the early-September break to the 152.89 Sept low, left a lower-high chain at 160.39 and 159.03. Since late September price has compressed into a 157.50–159.03 range, rotating around the 50% Jul-Sep fib at 158.44 and a flattening EMA50 near 158.05, with RSI neutral around 54 and daily ranges contracting. Neither this week's hot US PPI and retail sales nor the coordinated BoJ hawkish push broke the range, and the pair is heading for its first weekly loss in five weeks.
Support: 157.50, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 157.50 range low exposes the 156.38 swing low, then the 152.89 Sept low
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 160.39 lower high; MoF intervention rhetoric has capped advances near 159
- Japan Sep National CPI on Oct 22 at 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.1%) could break the range
- US S&P Global PMIs on Oct 23 at 13:45 UTC; the USD response to hot data has been fading
- Recovery above the 163.99 July high would be needed to undo the multi-month lower-high chain