Contracting range: lower highs from 158.95, higher lows from 157.55.
Wednesday's NY push to the 158.95 prior high reversed through Thursday's Asia session. The 157.55 range low printed in the hour after the hot US PPI release, and the rebound stalled near the 50% retracement at 158.25, consistent with strong US data failing to extend the dollar. Since then H1 has compressed between lower highs at 158.95 and 158.34 (friday high) and higher lows at 157.55 and 157.69 (friday low), while the Sunday open has slipped below the 157.93 weekly open and EMA(20) near 157.97, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 157.78, 157.69, 157.55
Resistance: 157.97, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 158.95 prior high back into view
Failure to hold the 157.78 sunday low exposes the 157.69 friday low; a break of the higher-lows line toward the 157.55 range low ends the compression read
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 157.97 and the 157.93 weekly open would neutralise the Sunday drift
Hormuz/Iran headlines at the Monday open could trigger a haven or oil-driven USD move that breaks the range
Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC are the scheduled JPY catalysts this week
Lower highs from week high vs higher lows off 157.55.
USDJPY set its week high at 158.95 in Wednesday's NY session and then reversed. Thursday's Asia slide and the post-PPI dip in NY printed the week low at 157.55 as the dollar and Treasury yields pulled back despite the hot US data. Since then H1 has compressed between lower highs from the week high and higher lows off 157.55, with Friday's high at 158.34 stalling between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop, and Monday opening at 157.93, just under the EMA(20) near 157.99 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 157.692, 157.546
Resistance: 157.99, 158.335, 158.946
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 157.69 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the week low at 157.55, then the 157.50 pivot
H1 close above the friday high at 158.34 clears the lower-highs line and the 50–61.8% fib zone, reopening the week high at 158.95
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could break the compression
Japan Sep CPI on Oct 22 23:30 UTC is the main yen risk to this range read
Lower highs from 158.95 against higher lows from 157.55, compressing around 158.00.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high fully unwound into the close. Thursday's Asia dip and the post-PPI drop both found demand just above the 157.55 week low, so even the hot US data could not break the range. That leaves the pair on course for its first weekly loss in five weeks. Friday compressed between the 157.69 friday low and the 158.34 friday high, which stalled between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's decline, and the pair closed just under the ema20 near 158.00 with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 157.69, 157.55
Resistance: 158.00, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.34 friday high and the lower-highs line reopens the 158.95 week high
Failure to hold the 157.69 friday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 157.55 week low back in play
A break below the 157.55 week low would end the three-week range floor read near 157.50
Weekend IMF headlines and Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits could set the next directional leg
Japan Sep National CPI on Thu 23:30 UTC (ex fresh food f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read