Higher lows since Thursday; break above Friday high out of the 157.70–158.33 box.
USDJPY rallied steadily from Monday's Asia session low at 157.70 through London and NY. Price cleared the Friday high at 158.335 and the 157.70–158.33 box that had held since Thursday. The move tracked the 7bp rise in US 10y yields to 5.13%, while the yen again ignored Ueda's hawkish remarks. Lows have stepped up from 157.55 Thursday to 157.69 Friday and 157.88 in Monday's London-NY transition, and price now sits about 69% back into Wednesday's 158.95–157.55 decline. RSI(14) is near 69 and flattening as late-NY bars compress just under the Monday high, with EMA(20) at 158.40 trailing below.
Support: 158.40, 158.335, 157.93
Resistance: 158.946, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Friday high at 158.335 would turn the breakout into a false break and restore the box read
Loss of the higher-low trendline near the weekly open at 157.93 breaks the sequence of higher lows since Thursday
Spike high at 158.95 and range cap at 159.05 are the next areas to watch for rejection or break; MoF verbal intervention risk rises toward 159–160
Japan Sep trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC is a secondary catalyst; a renewed US tech-equity sell-off could pull front-end yields and this pair lower
22:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside the week's range · RSI 61 · price 158.504
Higher lows since Monday Asia; Fri high cleared, below Wed peak.
Wednesday's NY spike to the wed high at 158.95 was rejected, and the pair slid to a 157.55 week low on Thursday before ranging into Friday. With JPY the weakest major and the US 10y up about 7bp to 5.13%, Monday climbed steadily from the 157.70 Asian low through London and NY. That move cleared the fri high at 158.34 and the 61.8% fib of the 158.95–157.55 drop, holding above EMA(20). Price has stalled at the 158.55 monday high in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) easing to about 61 and pressing the rising line from the London-open low.
Support: 158.335, 157.931, 157.546
Resistance: 158.55, 158.646, 158.946
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the fri high at 158.34, and EMA(20) near 158.36, returns price to the Thursday–Friday range
Acceptance above the fib 78.6 at 158.65 opens the wed high at 158.95 and the 159.05 range cap
Loss of the weekly open at 157.93 puts the 157.55 week low back in play
A break of the rising line from Monday's London-open low would mark the first lower low of the advance
Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the main JPY risk
US 10y yields and AI-equity stress remain the dominant USD driver
Higher lows since Thursday's 157.55 low; Friday high cleared.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high reversed into a Wednesday-Thursday drop to the 157.55 week low, which printed on Thursday's US data hour before hot PPI and retail sales drew a rebound. Higher lows followed on Friday and in Monday's Asian session near the 157.93 weekly open. A steady London-to-NY grind then cleared the 158.34 Friday high and the 61.8% retracement, with JPY the weakest major as US 10-year yields rose. Price sits well above EMA(20) near 158.32, RSI(14) is in the mid-70s, and the 158.55 Monday high and the 78.6% fib at 158.65 are the next references.
Support: 158.34, 157.93, 157.55
Resistance: 158.55, 158.65, 158.95
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.34 Friday high, also near EMA(20), would put the move back inside last week's range
An H1 close above the 158.95 week high exposes the 159.05 range top, where MoF intervention commentary risk rises
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 157.93 weekly open would revive the Wednesday-Thursday drop structure toward the 157.55 week low
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, retracing last week's drop · RSI 68 · price 158.544
Higher lows from Monday Asia low; above 61.8% of Wed–Thu decline.
Monday turned up from a 157.70 Asia low and climbed from the London open through NY hours on a string of higher lows. The move took price back above the 61.8% fib of last Wednesday–Thursday's 158.95–157.55 drop as the US 10-year yield rose to 5.13% and the yen lagged despite Ueda's hawkish remarks. Price holds above EMA(20) near 158.33 with RSI(14) around 68 and the 158.44 pullback low intact; the 78.6% fib at 158.65, last week's prior high at 158.95 and the 159.05 range top sit overhead.
Support: 158.44, 158.33, 157.93
Resistance: 158.65, 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) at 158.33 and the Monday higher-lows trendline exposes the week open at 157.93
Close above the 158.95 prior high and 159.05 range top breaks last week's 157.55–158.95 range
Rejection at the 158.65 fib 78.6 would mark a lower high against last week's peak
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and Japan trade data Tue 23:50 UTC could shift this read
MoF verbal intervention headlines on any extension toward 160.00 could abruptly change this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending into Monday's NY session · RSI 69 · price 158.534
Higher lows since Monday Asia; range break above Friday high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from Monday's Asia low at 157.70, lifting through the Friday high at 158.33 into NY hours. The 10y Treasury yield rose to 5.13% and the yen shrugged off Ueda's hawkish remarks. Price is pressing the Monday high near 158.55, beyond the 61.8% retracement of last Wednesday's 158.95–157.55 sell-off, with RSI(14) near 69 and the EMA(20) at 158.30 trailing below.
Support: 158.34, 158.30, 157.70
Resistance: 158.55, 158.65, 158.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the friday high at 158.33 and the ema20 would turn the range break into a false break
Clearance of the monday high and the fib 78.6 near 158.65 opens the path to the prior high at 158.95
Loss of the Monday higher lows trendline exposes the monday low at 157.70
Japan trade data Tue 23:50 UTC and national CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since Thursday · RSI 67 · price 158.467
Higher lows 157.55/157.69/157.70; Friday 158.34 high cleared.
Since Wednesday's 158.95 week high, USD/JPY has printed higher lows at 157.55 (Thursday, reversed on the hot US PPI/retail sales prints), 157.69 Friday and 157.70 just after the weekly open. Monday climbed steadily from London open through the NY session on the bounce in US yields, clearing Friday's 158.34 high and reclaiming the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. Price holds above EMA(20) near 158.25 with RSI(14) around 67, and the 158.55 Monday high is the first cap inside the 157.55–159.05 range.
Support: 158.25, 157.93, 157.55
Resistance: 158.55, 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.55 monday high opens the path to the 158.95 week high and the 159.05 range top
Loss of EMA(20) near 158.25 and then the 157.93 weekly open would return price to mid-range
Break below the 157.55 week low invalidates the higher lows sequence
US Housing Starts/Permits Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could shift the read
Break above 158.35 range top; Monday higher lows intact.
USD/JPY cleared the 158.35 range top that capped Thursday and Friday, grinding higher through Monday's London and NY sessions as a firmer USD and higher US yields outweighed hawkish BoJ talk. Higher lows have stacked since the 157.70 Asia low, and price now sits above EMA(20) near 158.25 and above the 61.8% retracement of the 158.95–157.55 sell-off from Wednesday's high. RSI(14) is near 71, and the 78.6% fib at 158.65 and the 158.95 prior high are the next references overhead.
Support: 158.35, 158.25, 157.93
Resistance: 158.65, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 158.35 range top would turn the move into a false break and put price back inside the range
Loss of the Monday higher lows trendline and EMA(20) near 158.25 would end the recovery sequence
Failure to hold the 157.93 weekly open reopens Thursday's 157.55 low
A push above the 158.65 78.6% fib on a lower RSI(14) high would flag bearish divergence
US housing starts Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside a wider weekly range · RSI 70 · price 158.489
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low; Friday high broken, week high above.
The pair carved a 157.55–158.95 range last week, with Wednesday's NY push to the 158.946 week high fully unwound into Thursday's volatile reaction to the hot US data. Since Monday's 157.698 monday low it has built steady higher lows through London and NY, cleared the friday high at 158.335 and now sits above the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday decline at the 158.51 session high. The move has run with the ema20 rising beneath price, as rising French yields lifted the USD and Ueda's comments failed to lift the yen; the NAHB miss left little mark.
Support: 158.335, 158.25, 157.698
Resistance: 158.51, 158.946, 159.05
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 158.335 friday high and the ema20 near 158.25 would turn the breakout into a false break within the range
A push through the 158.51 session high leaves the 158.946 week high and 159.05 range top as the next references
A break of the Monday higher lows trendline toward the 157.698 monday low would return price to the middle of the weekly range
RSI(14) near 70 after a one-way session; a stall here would show up as a first lower high
Tue 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts and Tue 23:50 UTC Japan trade balance are the next scheduled catalysts
Break above Friday high, higher lows since Thursday.
USD/JPY has climbed back to the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's 158.95–157.55 drop and cleared Friday's 158.34 high. Ueda's hawkish remarks failed to lift the yen, and firmer French yields supported USD. Monday's move started at the 157.70 Asia low and held above the weekly open through London. It then extended into the NY session to a 158.45 day high, with price riding EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 67. Higher lows have formed since Thursday's post-PPI whipsaw to the week low, and Tuesday's 158.51 prior high is the next cap overhead.
Support: 158.18, 157.93, 157.55
Resistance: 158.45, 158.51, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 158.18 returns price to the 157.55–158.34 range
Acceptance above the 158.51 prior high opens the path to Wednesday's 158.95 week high
Rejection at the 158.45 day high and 61.8% fib would leave the recovery capped below last week's lower-high structure
Loss of the weekly open at 157.93 and the higher-lows line puts the 157.55 week low back in view
US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows since Monday Asia; mid-range within 157.55–158.95.
Last week's spike to the 158.95 week high faded into a 157.55 low during Thursday's NY whipsaw on hot US PPI and retail sales, setting a 157.55–158.95 range. Since the 157.70 Monday low in the Asia session, price has printed higher lows through London and NY, reclaimed the weekly open at 157.93 and held above EMA(20) as the yen stays soft on fiscal concerns. The move is now pressing the 61.8% retrace of the week drop fib, which coincides with the 158.41 Monday high.
Support: 158.14, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.415, 158.513, 158.946
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.41 Monday high and 61.8% retrace opens the 158.51 prior high, then the 158.95 week high, where intervention rhetoric near 159 becomes a factor
A break of the Monday higher lows near 157.88 and back below the weekly open at 157.93 negates the recovery and refocuses the 157.70 Monday low and the 157.55 range floor
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 158.14 would keep the higher-low sequence intact
US Housing Starts Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade data Tue 23:50 UTC; AI-equity swings and 2-year yields remain the dominant USD driver
Higher lows off 157.55 within 157.55–158.95 range; testing 61.8% retrace.
USD/JPY has climbed off Thursday's 157.55 range low with higher lows on Friday (157.69) and in Monday's Asia session (the monday low at 157.70). From there a London-led push lifted price back above EMA(20) and the friday high at 158.33. Price is now testing the fib 61.8 retrace of Wednesday's drop from the 158.95 spike high near 158.41, with RSI(14) near 65. Yen softness on fiscal worries continues to outweigh the week's hawkish BoJ messaging.
Support: 158.33, 158.13, 157.70
Resistance: 158.41, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 158.41 (fib 61.8) opens the path back toward the 158.95 spike high, where intervention warnings have capped the range top
Slip back below the friday high at 158.33 and the ema20 near 158.13 would mark today's push as a false break
Failure to hold the monday low at 157.70 breaks the higher lows trendline and reopens the 157.55 range low
US Housing Starts/Permits (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Japan trade data (Tue 23:50 UTC) could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 62 · price 158.24
157.55–158.35 range since Wednesday's reversal from 158.95; Monday printing higher lows.
Wednesday's spike to the 158.95 week high met rejection and unwound into Thursday. The hot US data session produced a false break to the 157.55 week low before an immediate recovery, and price has ranged below the 158.33 friday high since. From the Asia session low at 157.70 (monday low), price has stepped up through London with higher lows and holds above the ema20, now sitting on the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu drop. The yen is underperforming despite Ueda's hawkish remarks, with modest USD support from higher French yields.
Support: 158.10, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.33, 158.41, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.33 friday high breaks the range top and brings the 61.8% fib at 158.41 and the 158.95 week high into view
Intervention rhetoric as price approaches the 158.95 week high could cap any extension
Loss of the ema20 near 158.10 and the Monday rising trendline returns focus to the 157.70 monday low and 157.55 week low
Japan trade data (Tue 23:50 UTC) and Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) could materially shift the range read
157.55–158.34 range since Wednesday; Monday building higher lows.
USD/JPY has range-traded 157.55–158.34 since the NY-session rejection at the 158.95 week high on Wednesday. Thursday's hot PPI and retail prints only produced a whipsaw to the week low. During Monday's London session, price lifted off the 157.70 range floor and through ema20 near 158.08, reaching a 158.28 session high near the 50% retrace of the week's decline, while Ueda's hawkish remarks drew no yen bid. RSI(14) near 58 is mid-cycle, and ATR has compressed to about 16 pips.
Support: 158.08, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.28, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 fri high breaks the range top and the 50% retrace, exposing the 158.95 week high
Loss of ema20 and the Monday higher lows returns focus to the 157.70 range floor
Break below the 157.55 week low brings the 157.50 pivot into play
US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the week's key yen risk
157.55–158.35 range with higher lows since Thursday; price at 50% fib.
Wednesday's London-NY transition spike to the 158.946 week high was rejected within hours, and Thursday's hot US data produced only a whipsaw to the 157.546 swing low before price recovered. Since then the pair has held a 157.55–158.35 range, pinned near 158.00 by broad USD softness offset by persistent yen weakness, with the fri/mon low at 157.70 holding and Monday's London session lifting price back above EMA(20). Price now sits at the 50% fib of Wednesday's sell-off, with the Thursday high and fri high at 158.335 capping above.
Support: 158.07, 157.70, 157.546
Resistance: 158.25, 158.335, 158.946
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.335 fri high breaks the range top and opens the path back toward the 158.946 week high, where intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify
Rejection at the 158.25 50% fib keeps the range read intact and returns focus to EMA(20) near 158.07
Failure to hold the 157.70 fri/mon low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 157.546 swing low
US Housing Starts/Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could shift this read; Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the larger swing factor
157.55–158.35 range since Thursday, flat-to-rising lows, lower highs from week high.
Wednesday's NY-session spike from the 158.51 spike base to the 158.946 week high met a sharp rejection as Fed pause bets firmed. Thursday's hot PPI and retail data produced a two-way whipsaw to the 157.546 week low before price recovered into a 157.55–158.35 range. Monday's Asia session dip held the 157.70 double low and price has reclaimed the weekly open, now sitting above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 57. It is pressing the 50% fib of the week's drop around 158.25, just under the Friday high.
Support: 157.931, 157.70, 157.546
Resistance: 158.335, 158.513, 158.946
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.335 friday high breaks the range top and opens the 158.51 spike base, then the 158.946 week high
Rejection at the 50% fib near 158.25 keeps the range intact and leaves lower highs from the week high in place
Slip back below the 157.93 weekly open returns focus to the 157.70 double low and the higher-lows line
Break of the 157.546 week low invalidates the range and the higher-lows read
Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC and US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC can move the range
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the week's main yen risk; intervention rhetoric near 159 could cap upside
157.55–158.35 range below Wednesday's 158.95 spike high.
Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 158.95 week high fully reversed. Thursday's hot US PPI and retail sales then whipsawed the pair to a 157.55 week low before it recovered above 158.00, consistent with the digest's read that strong US data is getting little dollar follow-through. Since then price has held a 157.70–158.34 range. Friday's and Monday's Asia-session lows formed a double low near 157.70, and the pair has climbed back above the 157.93 weekly open and EMA(20), pressing the monday high at 158.15 near the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 157.93, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.15, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 friday high, beyond the 50% retracement at 158.25, opens the path back toward the 158.95 week high, where intervention risk is flagged
Failure to hold the 157.70 double low exposes the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 pivot
Slipping back below the 157.93 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to the lower half of the range
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC, then Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing just below EMAs · RSI 47 · price 157.928
Lower highs vs higher lows, contracting 157.55–158.35 range.
USD/JPY has printed lower highs since Wednesday's spike to the 158.95 week high around the NY open. Thursday's post-PPI week low at 157.55 and Monday's Asia-session dip to the 157.70 swing low held as higher lows, leaving a contracting range. Friday's NY rebound stalled at the 158.34 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 157.96 and EMA(50) near 158.02, with RSI(14) flat around 47, consistent with the digest's read of hot US data and hawkish BoJ talk offsetting each other.
Support: 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.02, 158.34, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.95 week high
Failure to hold the 157.70 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.55 week low and the 157.50 pivot
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema50 at 158.02 would shift price into the upper half of the range
Hormuz/Iran headlines through the Asia session, US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read