157.55–158.60 range with rising lows; price back mid-to-upper range.
From the 157.931 week open, Monday dipped to the 157.698 week low in Asia before a steady London-into-NY grind printed the 158.599 week high early Tuesday. Tuesday gave most of that back from Asia into NY as soft US housing data and lower yields weighed on the dollar, but the 157.825 Tuesday low held above Monday's and the rising lows from Thursday's 157.546 stayed intact. Price has since recovered above ema20 near 158.20, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) flat and converged and RSI(14) parked near 50, so the range read still holds.
Support: 158.20, 157.825, 157.698
Resistance: 158.335, 158.599
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.825 Tuesday low breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 157.698 week low
Sustained trade above the 158.335 Friday high reopens the 158.599 week high; the digest flags 159.05 as an intervention-sensitive cap beyond that
Failure to hold ema20 around 158.20 returns price to the lower half of the range and the deep retracement of Monday's advance
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC tonight, then US jobless claims and Japan national CPI on Thursday, could shift this read
Monday impulse 157.70–158.60 mostly retraced; higher low at 157.83, price mid-range on flat EMAs.
The Monday impulse from the 157.70 week low ran through London and NY hours to a 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. That high was rejected, and the move retraced beyond 78.6% as USD eased on Iran-deal headlines and soft US housing data. The NY low at 157.83 held as a higher low above Monday's base. Price has since recovered to around 158.20, sitting on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) just under the 38.2% fib at 158.26, with RSI(14) back near 51 in a mid-range read.
Support: 158.04, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 158.26 and the lower-high line from 158.60 puts the week high back in play
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 158.04 exposes the NY low at 157.83 and the higher-low line
A break of the 157.70 week low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC, plus Thu US jobless claims and Japan CPI, could shift this read. The 159.05 range top sits near intervention-sensitive territory
157.70–158.60 weekly range; higher lows since Thursday, lower high on Tuesday's NY rebound.
Monday's London-NY rally off the 157.70 weekly low ran out at the 158.60 weekly high in Tuesday's Asia session. The reversal cut through the 61.8% fib of that rally to a 157.83 Tuesday low during NY hours, as weak US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes pulled yields lower. The rebound has stalled at a flat EMA(20) near 158.19, with the 158.26 NY high capping at the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) in the mid-40s, while the rising support line from Thursday's 157.55 low remains intact beneath the range.
Support: 158.04, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.26 NY high reopens the 158.60 weekly high, where Tuesday's rejection formed
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 158.04 exposes the 157.83 Tuesday low
Break below the 157.83 Tuesday low brings the rising support line and the 157.70 weekly low into play, ending the higher-low sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC tonight and Japan CPI on Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off NY dip · RSI 54 · price 158.235
157.70–158.60 weekly range with higher low at 157.83.
Monday's Asia low at 157.70 fed a steady London-into-NY rally to 158.60. Tuesday's London session gave that back, and soft US housing data (Pending Home Sales -7.3%, Starts miss) extended the NY dip to 157.83, about 86% of the Monday rally fib, as Iran-deal hopes pulled US yields lower. Demand stepped in at that NY low, a higher low above the week low, and price has recovered to 158.24, just above a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 158.20 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s; the Friday high at 158.34 is the nearest cap below the 158.60 week high.
Support: 158.20, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 Friday high reopens the 158.60 week high, where Tuesday's Asia rejection formed
Failure to hold the 157.83 NY low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.70 week low
Holding above the EMA(20) near 158.20 keeps the rebound from the NY low intact; a slip back below returns price to mid-range
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC tonight could move this read, with Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC next
157.55–158.60 range since Thursday, higher lows intact, price pinned at converged EMAs.
Monday's steady London-to-NY climb from the 157.70 week low to the 158.60 week high was largely unwound on Tuesday. The first hour of NY, as weak US housing data and softer yields hit, took price to a 157.83 day low, beyond the 78.6% of the Monday leg, before buyers stepped back in. Price now sits a touch below EMA(20) and EMA(50), both near 158.18, with RSI(14) flat around 47. It is a mid-range read inside the band set by last Thursday's 157.55 prior low, with higher lows still forming.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.18, 158.38, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 closes above the ema20 at 158.18 and the 158.38 prior high would reopen the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 157.83 day low exposes the 157.70 week low and the higher lows trendline. Below that sits the 157.55 prior low
Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC and live US-Iran headlines could shift the read. Japan CPI on Thursday is the larger JPY risk
The Monday rally from the 157.70 Monday low ran through London and NY and stalled at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. Rejection there let London unwind most of the leg, and NY dipped to 157.83 into the weak US housing prints (pending home sales -7.3%, starts 1.221M vs 1.3M) before demand returned. The higher lows from Thursday's 157.55 post-PPI low remain intact, and price sits back on a flattened EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 158.19 with RSI(14) reset to ~51, boxed between the 157.93 weekly open and the 158.34 prior high.
Support: 158.19, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 week high clears the cap and opens the path to the 159.05 range top
Failure to hold 157.70 Monday low breaks the higher lows sequence and the range read
Holding above ema20 at 158.19 keeps the Monday rally retracement contained; repeated closes below it shift focus to the weekly open at 157.93
Japan trade balance tonight 23:50 UTC and Japan national CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu and S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risks for the range
Higher lows inside 157.55–158.79 range, capped at 158.23 today.
Monday's climb from the 157.70 week low ran to a 158.60 week high early in Tuesday's Asia session, then met rejection and retraced roughly 85% of the move through London and into the NY open as weak US housing data (Pending Home Sales -7.3%, Starts 1.221M) weighed on the dollar. The NY dip held at the 157.83 day low, a fourth higher low on the rising line from Thursday's 157.55 low. Price is back pinned at EMA(20) near 158.20, just under a flat 158.23 tuesday cap that has held five tests since 04:00 UTC, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60, 158.79
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 158.23 tuesday cap reopens the 158.60 week high, with Wednesday's 158.79 prior high as the range ceiling beyond
A break below the 157.83 day low and the higher-lows line exposes the 157.70 week low, then the 157.55 thu low near the range floor
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC tonight and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the range read
Further soft US data extending the dollar unwind would put pressure on the higher-lows sequence
Lower highs from 158.60 inside a 157.55–158.85 range.
Monday's rally from the 157.70 Monday low ran into a 158.60 week high early Tuesday, then faded through Asia and London. A string of lower highs followed, and the NY session dipped to a 157.83 session low on the pending home sales and housing starts misses. Price now sits back on the 157.93 weekly open with roughly 70% of the Monday rally retraced, below EMA(20) near 158.15 and RSI(14) around 33, still well inside last week's 157.55–158.85 range.
Support: 157.93, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.15, 158.60, 158.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 session low exposes the 157.70 Monday low, then last Thursday's 157.55 low near the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 158.15 and the lower-highs line would neutralise the fade from the week high
Japan trade balance tonight 23:50 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the range read
Fri 13:45 UTC S&P Global PMIs are the main USD risk; a hot print revives a run at 158.60 and 158.85
157.55–158.60 range; Monday rally rejected at week high, retraced to 61.8%.
USDJPY has held a 157.55–158.60 range since Wednesday's slide from the 158.95 prior high. Monday's climb from the 157.70 weekly low stalled at the 158.60 week high in early Tuesday Asia trade, and price has since retraced most of that leg. The Housing Starts miss in NY hours pushed it to a 157.84 today low, and it now sits near 158.03 at the 61.8% fib, below the 158.20 EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 39 and a series of lower highs capping each bounce.
Support: 157.84, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.20, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 158.20 ema20 and the lower-highs line would neutralise today's pullback
Failure to hold the 157.84 today low exposes the 157.70 weekly low, then the 157.55 range floor
A push through the 158.60 week high reopens the 158.95 prior high, where intervention rhetoric risk rises
Japan trade balance 23:50 UTC tonight and Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the range read
False break above Friday's high, lower highs since Tuesday's Asia peak.
Monday's advance from the 157.70 weekly low ran through NY hours to a 158.60 weekly high in Tuesday's Asia session. That briefly cleared Friday's 158.34 top before fading through London, and the US Housing Starts miss then knocked price to a 157.84 NY low as the Fed-pause narrative weighed on the dollar. Price has recovered to the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally near 158.04 but sits below the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 158.22, with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 158.04, 157.84, 157.70
Resistance: 158.22, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.84 NY low exposes the 157.70 weekly low and puts last week's 157.55 floor back in view
Recovery above the ema20/50 cluster at 158.22 would neutralise Tuesday's fade; the 158.60 weekly high and 158.95 prior high sit above
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Range, pulling back from week high · RSI 42 · price 158.133
157.55–158.60 range since Thursday; Monday higher-low trendline intact, Tuesday lower highs.
USD/JPY climbed from Monday's 157.70 week low through NY hours. It reached a 158.60 week high early in Tuesday's Asia session, where supply capped a second push and RSI(14) printed a lower high, a mild bearish divergence. The pullback found demand at the 61.8% fib near 158.03 in the first hours of London and has since compressed under EMA(20) at 158.24 with RSI(14) near 42, a fade consistent with the digest's softer-dollar read as US yields stall.
Support: 158.03, 157.70, 157.55
Resistance: 158.24, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 158.03 and the higher-low trendline exposes the 157.70 week low, then Thursday's swing low at 157.55
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 158.24 and breaking the Tuesday lower-highs line reopens the 158.60 week high, with last Wednesday's prior high at 158.95 above
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read; Japan CPI on Thursday is the larger range risk
Lower highs from Wed 158.95 peak, higher lows since Thu 157.55; compressing inside 157.55–158.95.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.70 week low through Monday's London and NY sessions. The move stalled at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session, just above the 200-day SMA cited in the digest, as Treasury yields failed to extend their rebound. The London-open pullback found a floor at 158.03, the London low and the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally. Price now sits just under a flattening EMA20/50 pair near 158.24, with RSI(14) at 44 and lower highs still descending from the Wed high at 158.95.
Support: 158.03, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.24, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.03 London low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the weekly open at 157.93, then the 157.70 week low
Reclaim of the ema20/50 cluster near 158.24 restores Monday's higher-low sequence
A break above the 158.60 week high clears the lower highs line toward the Wed high at 158.95
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the larger range risk
USD/JPY climbed from the Monday low at 157.70 through NY hours but stalled at the 158.60 week high in the Asian session today. That is the 200-day SMA zone the digest flags as repeatedly capping, and the stall came as Treasury yields failed to extend Monday's rebound. The pullback found demand at the London low of 158.03, the 61.8% retrace, into London open, and price is now holding near the 50% level below the EMA(20) at 158.26 with RSI(14) back near 45.
Support: 158.03, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.26, 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 158.26 and the Friday high at 158.34 would break the lower-highs sequence off the week high
Failure to hold the London low and 61.8% retrace at 158.03 exposes the weekly open at 157.93 and the Monday low at 157.70
A repeat rejection at the 158.55–158.60 week high keeps the 157.70–158.60 range intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the yield-driven read; Japan Trade Balance follows at 23:50 UTC
Lower high at 158.60 under last week's 158.95; pullback testing 61.8% fib.
Monday's steady climb from the 157.70 monday low stalled at the 158.60 week high in early Asia today, the 200-day SMA zone where the digest notes another rejection. The Tokyo-session unwind broke the Monday trendline and took price back below EMA(20) to the 61.8% fib at 158.04, as broad USD softness on AI-equity jitters outweighed elevated yields. The wider picture is still the range set after last week's 158.95 spike was sold and Thursday's hot US data failed to lift the pair. RSI(14) has rolled from the 60s to ~37 without reaching oversold.
Support: 158.04, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.28, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 158.04 exposes the 157.93 weekly open and the 157.70 monday low
Recovery back above EMA(20) near 158.28 would recast the drop as a pullback, with the 158.60 week high still the cap
Break of last week's high at 158.95, or of Thursday's 157.55 low, would end the range read
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC today and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read
157.55–158.95 range since Wednesday; Monday higher-low sequence broken in Tuesday's Asia session.
USD/JPY has rotated inside a 157.55–158.95 range since Wednesday, and the spike to 157.55 on Thursday's hot US data reversed within the hour. Monday's steady climb from the 157.70 week low through London and NY ran on firmer US yields and yen fiscal worries, then stalled at the 158.60 week high. Tuesday's Asia session broke the Monday trendline and pushed price back below EMA(20) near 158.32 into the 50–61.8% fib zone, with the Asia low at 158.06 and RSI(14) down to ~40 from the low 60s.
Support: 158.06, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.32, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 158.06 Asia low and the 61.8% fib exposes the weekly open at 157.93 and the 157.70 week low
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 158.32 reopens the 158.60 week high, with Wednesday's 158.95 prior high still capping the range
US ADP, Housing Starts and Building Permits (12:15–12:30 UTC) and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read; Thursday's Japan CPI is the main yen catalyst
06:01 UTC
Range-bound, short-term pullback from week high · RSI 33 · price 158.144
157.55–158.95 range; Monday's leg up from 157.70 now half retraced.
Monday's climb from the 157.70 week low ran through London and NY on firmer US yields and stalled at the 158.60 week high. Today's Asia session reversed about half of that move with a run of lower highs. Price now sits near the 50% retracement around 158.15, below the EMA(20) at ~158.36, with RSI(14) down near 33. The wider window is still a 157.55–158.95 range, with the range floor lifting from last Thursday's 157.55 low. A soft USD tone and intervention-capped JPY weakness fit that two-way read.
Support: 158.04, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.36, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fib 61.8 at 158.04 exposes the weekly open at 157.93 and the 157.70 week low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 158.36 puts the 158.60 week high back in play, then the oct 14 high at 158.95
A break of the rising range floor near 157.70 would end the range read
US Housing Starts/Permits 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance 23:50 UTC could shift this read; Thursday's Japan CPI is the larger risk
157.55–158.95 range; lower high at 158.60, pullback into Monday rally fib.
Monday's rally from the 157.70 Monday low ran through London and NY hours as the US 10y yield rose ~7bp to 5.13%. It stalled at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session, which sits below last Wednesday's 158.95 range top and extends the lower-highs sequence. Price has slipped back under the EMA(20) near 158.38 and is sitting on EMA(50) at the 38.2% retracement of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) easing to ~45. The 157.55 range floor has held three times since Thursday.
Support: 158.15, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.38, 158.60, 158.95
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 158.15 exposes the weekly open at 157.93 and the Monday low at 157.70
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 158.60 week high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.95 range top
US housing starts/permits at 12:30Z today, Japan trade data at 23:50Z, and Thursday's Japan CPI (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift the range read
Higher lows since Monday's Asia low; broke above the Thu–Fri range and is now pulling back toward EMA(20).
USD/JPY held its Monday Asia low at 157.70 and pushed through the 157.55–158.35 Thursday–Friday range from the London open, then extended during NY hours. The Monday rally peaked at a 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session as the 10y yield firmed and the yen lagged despite Ueda's hawkish tone, but RSI(14) printed a lower high against it (bearish divergence). Price is now easing back onto EMA(20) near 158.40 and the Monday rising support, with the friday high at 158.335 the next structural floor.
Support: 158.40, 158.335, 157.93
Resistance: 158.60, 158.946, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday high at 158.335 and the Monday rising support puts price back inside the prior range, with the Monday rally 50% retracement near 158.15 below
Close above the 158.60 week high opens the path to the 158.95 wed high and the 159.05 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric tends to intensify
Loss of the weekly open at 157.93 would unwind Monday's range break
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read; Friday's US PMIs are the larger test
Higher lows since Monday inside the 157.55–158.95 range.
USDJPY has retraced about 70% of the drop from the 158.95 Wed high, set in the post-CPI spike, to Thursday's 157.55 low. London open on Monday lifted price off the 157.70 Monday low, and NY hours carried it through the 61.8% fib as US yields rebounded and the yen lagged. Price holds above EMA(20) and the Monday higher-lows line, but Asia trade has compressed under the 158.60 Asia high, with RSI(14) easing into the mid-60s and ATR shrinking.
Support: 158.41, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.60, 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 Asia high exposes the 158.95 Wed high and the 159.05 range top
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 158.41 and the Monday higher-lows line puts the 157.93 weekly open back in focus
A break of the 157.70 Monday low would undo this week's recovery structure
MoF intervention rhetoric is likely to intensify on approach to 159–160
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the read; Friday's US PMIs are the larger catalyst
Higher lows since Monday open inside 157.55–158.95 range.
USDJPY has climbed steadily from Monday's weekly open at 157.93, printing higher lows through London and NY as the US 10y rebounded to 5.13%. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 158.40 with RSI(14) around 71. The move has retraced about 75% of the post-CPI drop from Wednesday's 158.95 week high to Thursday's 157.55 low, and the Asia session has flattened just under the 78.6% fib at 158.65 and against the Monday trendline. The 158.95 week high and 159.05 range top sit overhead.
Support: 158.40, 158.10, 157.93
Resistance: 158.65, 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) at 158.40 breaks the Monday trendline structure
Failure to hold the 158.10 higher low returns price toward the 157.93 weekly open
Acceptance above the 78.6% fib at 158.65 exposes the 158.95 week high and 159.05 range top
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today, then Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC
Japan CPI on Thu and US PMIs on Fri could materially shift the range read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, momentum flattening near highs · RSI 67 · price 158.505
Higher lows from 157.70; broke Friday's 158.34 high, now holding a tight 158.44–158.60 shelf.
Wednesday's CPI spike to the 158.95 cpi high faded as the AI-led equity sell-off pulled US front-end rates lower. Lows near 157.55–157.70 held into Friday. Since the weekly open at 157.93, price has stepped up along Monday's higher lows from the 157.70 monday low as the 10y yield firmed to 5.13%. It cleared Friday's 158.34 prior high during the NY session, and the late-day pullback held above that level. Price has since compressed below the 158.60 week high, with RSI(14) near 67 and H1 ranges shrinking to roughly 10 pips.
Support: 158.34, 157.93, 157.70
Resistance: 158.60, 158.95, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 week high opens the path to the 158.95 cpi high and the 159.05 range top
Failure to hold the 158.34 prior high, together with a break of Monday's higher lows, turns the breakout into a false break and points back toward the 157.93 weekly open
A break below the 157.70 monday low would put the 157.50 range floor back in play
Japan trade data Tue 23:50 UTC and National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print is the main yen-positive risk
Verbal intervention headlines become more likely as price approaches 159–160