USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, flat under 158.30 · RSI 64 · price 158.287
Higher lows since 157.83, tight range below the 61.8% fib.
The pair fell from the 158.60 Asian high to a 157.83 NY low, a drop that extended as the dollar softened on US-Iran deal reports. A higher-low chain then carried it back to 158.30, the 61.8% retrace of the day's drop, after the rollover. Early Tokyo is holding a narrow 158.26–158.30 range just under that fib, above ema20, with ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 158.24, 158.13, 157.83
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC lands inside the current bar and could break the tight range
M15 close above 158.30 (61.8% fib) opens the path to the 158.60 asian high
Slip below ema20 at 158.24 returns price to the rollover low base at 158.13
Loss of the 158.13 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 157.83 ny low back in view
Japan CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this range
23:31 UTC
Recovering from NY low, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 158.27
Tight early-Asia consolidation just under the 158.29 session high after a higher-low recovery off 157.83.
The NY session flushed to a 157.83 low on soft US housing data and Iran-deal yield drag, then recovered. A 22:00 UTC pop to the 158.29 session high is holding in a 3-pip early-Asia band. The 38.2% retrace of the NY bounce lines up with the 158.13 late-NY low.
Support: 158.13, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.29, 158.40, 158.59
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.29 session high opens the 158.40 pivot where the prior Asia slide broke down, with the 158.59 prior high beyond.
Loss of the 158.13 late-NY low (38.2% fib) exposes the 158.03 London low and the 50% retrace near 158.06.
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin Asian range.
A break below the 157.83 NY low would cancel the recovery read.
23:16 UTC
Recovering from NY low, choppy · RSI 60 · price 158.279
Higher lows off 157.825; thin early-Asia push above the NY-afternoon high into the 61.8% retracement.
Iran-deal headlines and soft US housing data pulled USD/JPY to a 157.825 NY low during the London-NY transition. Price has since recovered, and a thin early-Asia spike has lifted it above the 158.27 NY-afternoon high and into the fib 61.8% retracement near 158.30. The rollover low at 158.13 is the nearest base, with the 158.40 breakdown zone and the 158.60 24h high overhead.
Support: 158.13, 157.825
Resistance: 158.30, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin liquidity
An M15 close above the fib 61.8% at 158.30 exposes the 158.40 breakdown zone from the Asia selloff
Failure to hold the 158.13 rollover low returns price to the 158.11–158.27 NY range
Japan CPI on Thu 23:30 UTC and US-Iran headlines remain event risk
23:01 UTC
Recovering from NY low, higher lows intact · RSI 61 · price 158.279
HH/HL chain off 157.825; early-Asia break above NY high.
USD/JPY slid to a 157.825 NY low as soft US housing data and Iran-deal hopes pulled yields lower, then built higher lows into the close. Early Asia pushed through the NY high at 158.26 to a 158.293 session high, and the pullback is holding just above that level; RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 158.26, 158.13, 157.825
Resistance: 158.293, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could move price off the session high in thin Asia trade
Slipping back under the NY high at 158.26 puts the 158.13 rollover low and 38.2% fib of the NY-low rally in play
Close above the 158.40 breakdown pivot from yesterday's Asia selloff opens the path toward the prior high at 158.60
Loss of the rising trendline from the 157.825 NY low breaks the higher-low chain
22:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, higher lows · RSI 59 · price 158.281
Higher lows since 157.83, late break of 158.26.
Price slid from the 158.60 asian high to a 157.83 ny low as lower US yields and weak housing data weighed on USD. NY then built higher lows at 158.11–158.13, and a thin post-rollover spike has cleared the 158.26 prior high, stalling at the 61.8% fib of the day's decline near 158.30.
Support: 158.26, 158.13, 157.83
Resistance: 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close above 158.30 (61.8% fib) opens the path toward the 158.60 asian high
A slip back below the 158.26 prior high would mark the late spike as a false break
Failure to hold the 158.13 swing low breaks the higher lows sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt thin early-Asia liquidity
22:31 UTC
Intraday recovery from NY low, ranging just under 158.30 · RSI 60 · price 158.276
Higher lows off 157.83, thin early-Asia probe above 158.27 band top.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.60 Asian high to the 158.03 London low. Soft US housing data then marked a NY-session day low at 157.83, and price rebounded into a 158.13–158.27 band. A thin early-Asia jump to a 158.29 spike high is testing the band top, with RSI(14) near 60 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 158.13, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.29, 158.60
What it said to watch
Close back below the 158.13 rollover low would turn the spike high into a false break
Holding above the 158.29 spike high opens the path toward the 158.60 asian high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin Asian tape
Loss of the 158.03 london low, near the 50% of the NY rebound fib, re-exposes the 157.83 day low
22:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off NY day low · RSI 55 · price 158.201
Higher lows off 157.825; tight 158.13–158.27 box after rollover.
Asia session sold off from 158.60 and London held a base near the 158.03 london low. Soft US housing data (Starts 1.221M, Pending Home Sales -7.3%) drove the NY leg to a 157.825 day low before price recovered to the 158.267 late NY high. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of that decline, boxed between the 158.13 rollover low and the late NY high, with the 61.8% fib at 158.30 just above.
Support: 158.132, 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.267, 158.303, 158.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.27 (late NY high) exposes the 61.8% fib at 158.30 and the 158.40 asia break area
Failure to hold the 158.13 rollover low reopens the 158.03 london low
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could break the current box early in the Asia session
22:01 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 158.142
Double bottom at 157.83, now ranging 158.11–158.27 into Asia open.
USDJPY slid from the 158.60 asia high to the 158.03 asian low, and soft US housing data pushed NY down to a 157.83 session low, where a double bottom formed. Price then rebounded to 158.27, but supply capped the ny high three times. Late NY has drifted back toward the 158.11 swing low, with RSI(14) near 45, price just under EMA20/50 and ATR compressing to about 4 pips.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.11 swing low puts the 158.03 asian low and the 50% of the NY rebound in play
A close above the 158.27 ny high breaks the range and opens 158.60 asia high
Losing the 157.83 session low voids the double bottom
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and US-Iran headlines could break the thin late-NY range
Double bottom off 157.83, stalling below 158.26 ny high.
Asia faded from the 158.60 asia high into London. NY broke the 158.03 london low as soft US housing data and Iran-deal hopes weighed on yields. A double bottom at the 157.83 day low then drove a NY rally back into range. Price is now drifting at 158.14 in thin trade after the NY close, below EMA20/50 after rejection at the 158.26 ny high, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 ny high reopens the 158.60 asia high
Loss of the 158.11 ny pullback low exposes the 158.03 london low near the 50% NY rally fib
Break below the 157.83 day low invalidates the double bottom
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt thin early-Asia liquidity
21:31 UTC
Down from Asia high, NY recovery stalled into a range · RSI 46 · price 158.142
158.11–158.27 range since mid-NY; double cap at ny high.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.60 asia high to a 157.83 ny low as weak US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes pulled yields lower. NY then recovered into a 158.11–158.27 range, with rejection twice at the ny high. After the NY close, price is drifting toward the pm swing low with RSI near 46 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.60
What it said to watch
A break below the 158.11 pm swing low exposes the 158.03 london low and the NY-rally 50% fib near 158.05
A close above the 158.27 ny high breaks the afternoon range and opens the path to the 158.60 asia high
Losing the 157.83 ny low would extend the day's lower-low sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the read as the Asia session opens
Post-NY consolidation between 158.11 and 158.27 under a lower Asian high.
Weak US housing data and softer yields knocked the pair to a 157.825 day low during NY hours, after the Asian session had already faded from the 158.599 Asian high. The rebound stalled twice at a 158.26–158.27 double high, and price is drifting back toward the 158.11 swing low after the NY close.
Support: 158.113, 158.046, 157.825
Resistance: 158.267, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.11 swing low opens the fib 50% at 158.05 and the 158.00 round number
Break above the 158.27 double high reopens the path toward the 158.60 Asian high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin Asia session
21:02 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing since NY low · RSI 46 · price 158.158
Double bottom at 157.83, higher low 158.11, capped at 158.27.
USDJPY slid from the 158.60 Asia high through London and into NY, where weak US housing data and softer yields pushed it to a 157.83 NY low that held twice before a recovery. Late NY has compressed into a 158.11–158.27 range. The session high at 158.27 has rejected price twice, and price is now just under EMA20 and EMA50 near 158.16–158.18.
Support: 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.11 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.83 NY low
Close above the 158.27 session high ends the late-NY range and opens the path back toward the 158.60 Asia high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC (about 3h) could jolt the Asian open out of this range
20:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 48 · price 158.176
V-recovery off 157.83 NY low, now compressing in a 158.11–158.27 band.
USD/JPY slid through Asia from the 158.60 asia high and extended to a 157.83 ny low as weak US housing data pulled yields lower. That low has since been fully retraced toward the 158.27 ny high, where price met a rejection. The pair is now drifting just under EMA20 in the late-NY lull, with 158.11 the nearest higher low.
Support: 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low reopens the 38.2% retracement near 158.10 and the 157.83 ny low
M15 close above the 158.27 ny high extends the recovery toward the 158.60 asia high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the Asian session open
US-Iran deal headlines moving oil and yields remain the main intraday swing factor
Double bottom at 157.83, higher lows into late NY.
Asia slid from the 158.60 asian high and London held a tight 158.03–158.23 band. Weak US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes then drove an early-NY drop to the 157.83 ny low, which formed a double bottom. Late NY has recovered and printed a higher low at 158.11. Price is now compressing just under the 158.27 ny high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.27, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 ny high extends the recovery toward the 158.60 asian high
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low breaks the recovery line and reopens the 158.03 london low
Loss of the 157.83 ny low invalidates the double bottom
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and US-Iran deal headlines could shift this read in the Asia session
20:16 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY dip, pressing session high · RSI 59 · price 158.242
Higher low at 158.11 after double bottom at 157.83-157.84; testing 158.27 cap.
Asia slid from the 158.60 Asian high to 158.06, and London held a 158.03-158.23 range. NY dipped to the 157.825 NY low on the US housing misses, then put in a double bottom. The NY rebound retested the 158.10 neckline as a higher low at 158.11 and is now pressing the 158.27 session high in late NY hours, holding above the rising trendline.
Support: 158.113, 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.267, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.27 session high opens the 158.40 asia shelf, with the 158.60 Asian high above
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low and the rising trendline voids the double bottom read
A 50% retrace of the NY rebound sits near 158.05, just above the 158.03 london low
Loss of the 157.825 NY low resumes the intraday lower-low sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY drift
20:01 UTC
Intraday recovery off NY low, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 158.224
Higher low at 158.11, capped at the 158.26 NY high.
Late Asia broke down from the 158.60 Asia high, and the NY session extended to a 157.83 NY low as US housing misses and Iran-deal headlines pulled yields lower. Since then, price has rebuilt to the 158.26 NY high, printing a higher low at 158.11 after London close. RSI(14) is near 54 and momentum is flat at the high.
Support: 158.113, 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.257, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high opens the 158.40 Asia shelf, then the 158.60 Asia high
Failure to hold the 158.11 higher low exposes the 158.03 London low and the 157.83 NY low
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the Asia open
19:46 UTC
Recovery off NY low, stalling below 158.26 · RSI 51 · price 158.208
The NY-hours slide to the 157.83 ny low came as USD softened on the US housing misses and Iran-deal headlines. The double bottom there sparked a 43-pip recovery to the 158.26 ny high, and the pullback held a higher low at 158.11, near the 38.2% fib. Price now sits mid-range in a thin late-NY tape, well below the 158.60 asian high.
Support: 158.11, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 ny high reopens the gap toward the 158.60 asian high
Loss of the 158.11 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 157.83 ny low
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could move this read in Asia
19:31 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows from NY low · RSI 57 · price 158.231
Double bottom at 157.83/157.84, neckline reclaimed, testing NY high.
Soft US housing data around the NY open flushed USDJPY to the 157.83 NY low, carving a double bottom with 157.84. The rebound cleared the 158.10 neckline, and the post-London-close pullback held a higher low at 158.11, a shallow retrace of the NY low-to-high fib. Late-NY price is pressing the 158.26 NY high, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 158.113, 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.257, 158.401
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high extends the higher-low chain toward the 158.40 Asia shelf
Break below the 158.11 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 158.03 London low and the 157.83 NY low
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the read early in the Asia session
19:16 UTC
Recovering intraday, stalling below NY high · RSI 54 · price 158.199
Double low at 157.83, higher low at 158.11, capped at 158.26.
Soft US housing data drove a NY flush to 157.84, and a second test at 157.83 formed a double low. Price recovered into the London range, stalled at the 158.26 NY high and is now drifting at 158.20 above a 158.11 swing low. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and late-NY ranges are compressing to ~6 pips.
Support: 158.113, 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.257, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 NY high reopens the path toward the 158.60 Asian high
Break of the 158.11 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 158.03 London low
Loss of the 157.83 double low invalidates the recovery read
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC (Asia session) could shift this read
19:01 UTC
Flat after NY rebound, momentum fading · RSI 50 · price 158.156
Lower highs below 158.26 NY high, inside 157.83–158.26 NY range.
USD/JPY slid through Asia from the 158.60 Asian high, then broke below the 158.03 London low to a 157.83 NY low as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar, a false break that rebounded to the 158.26 NY high. Late NY is printing lower highs on compressing ranges near the 23.6% fib, with the 158.11 micro low the first floor.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.26 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 158.11 micro low exposes 158.03 London low and the 50% fib
Loss of 157.83 NY low invalidates the false-break read
Japan trade balance 23:50 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
Lower high at 158.26 below the 158.60 Asian high; tight drift 158.11–158.26.
Asia sold off from the 158.60 asian high. NY then pushed to a 157.83 ny low as US-Iran deal reports and weak US housing data weighed on the dollar. The NY rebound stalled at the 158.26 ny high, and late in NY price is drifting near the 23.6% retracement of that rebound with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 158.60 asian high
Failure to hold the 158.11 swing low exposes the 158.03 london low, near 50% of the NY rebound
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could reshape the Asian session read
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 49 · price 158.172
Lower highs from 158.60 Asia high; NY base at 157.83, now ranging 158.11–158.26.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.60 Asia high through Tokyo and London. Soft US housing data and lower yields extended the drop to a 157.83 NY low, where buyers stepped in three times between 157.83 and 157.88. The rebound stalled at the 158.26 NY high, and price is now consolidating between 158.11 and 158.26 after NY, holding above the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib near 158.09, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 158.11, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 ny high breaks the post-NY range and puts the 158.60 asia high back in focus
Loss of the 158.11 pullback low and the 158.03 london low would expose the 157.83 ny low and a deeper retrace of the NY rally fib
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and US-Iran deal headlines could shift this read during the Asia session
Double bottom at 157.83 day low, now retesting the 158.10 neckline.
The slide from the 158.60 Asia high extended through the London low early in NY on soft US housing data and lower yields. It found a double bottom at 157.84/157.83 (day low) and rebounded to a 158.25 NY high. Late NY is now retesting the 158.10 neckline, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound. RSI(14) is back at 49 and the bar range has compressed to about 7 pips.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 neckline puts the London low at 158.03 and the 157.83 day low back in play
Close above the 158.25 NY high reopens the 158.40s and the 158.60 Asia high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC lands in the Asian session and could shift this read
US-Iran deal headlines are moving yields and remain an intraday swing factor
Double bottom at 157.83 drove rebound, now a shallow pullback.
Prices fell through the Asia session from the 158.60 asian high to the 158.04 london low. Early NY then extended the drop to a 157.83 ny low as US-Iran deal headlines and weak housing data hit the dollar. A double bottom there lifted price to a 158.26 rebound high. After London close it is drifting back toward the 38.2% of the rebound fib near 158.09, with price hugging EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 158.04, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.60
What it said to watch
Holding the 158.04 london low (about the 50% rebound fib) keeps the double bottom intact; a break below exposes the 157.83 ny low
An M15 close above the 158.26 rebound high opens 158.40 and the 158.60 asian high
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and live US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off NY low, flattening at 50% retrace.
USD/JPY bled from the 158.60 Asia high through London. Weak US housing data and softer yields then drove an NY-open drop that twice held 157.84/157.83 at the ny low. The rebound has stalled at the 50% retrace: the 158.26 rebound high is capping late NY hours, and micro lows at 158.18 are still intact.
Support: 158.18, 158.04, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.26 rebound high opens the 158.40 breakdown level, then the 158.60 asia high
Failure to hold the 158.18 micro lows exposes the 158.04 london low
Loss of the 157.83 ny low voids the double-bottom read
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and US-Iran/yield headlines could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.60 Asia high; double bottom at 157.83 NY low, bounce capped at 158.26.
Selling from the 158.60 Asia high ran through London. The weak US housing data extended it to a 157.83 NY low, where a double bottom formed and price broke back above 158.10 as softer yields eased. After London close the bounce is stalling at the 158.26 rebound high, near the 50% retracement, with 158.18 micro lows holding underneath.
Support: 158.18, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
Close above 158.26 rebound high and the 61.8% fib near 158.30 opens the 158.40 asia break level
Loss of 158.18 micro low puts the 158.03 london low back in play
Break of 157.83 ny low voids the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could reset the Asian range
Double bottom at 157.83 reclaimed London range; lower highs from 158.60 intact.
Asia sold off from the 158.60 asian high into a 158.03–158.23 London range. Weak US housing data and softer yields then pushed NY through the london low to 157.83, where a double bottom formed. The rebound reclaimed the range and price now holds above the ema20 at 158.13, but the session high at 158.26 has capped it near the 50% retrace of the Asia–NY drop, with late-NY drift around 158.20.
Support: 158.13, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.26, 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.26 session high and the 61.8% fib at 158.30 breaks the lower-high sequence from the asian high
Slip back under the ema20 at 158.13 and the london low at 158.03 puts the 157.83 ny low back in play
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC tonight could jolt the Asian session range
The slide from the 158.60 Asia high ran through London into a 157.83 NY low as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar. A double bottom at 157.84/157.83 has since cleared its 158.10 neckline along the NY rally line. After London close, price is stalling at the 158.26 NY high, near the 50% retrace of the decline, with the 61.8% fib at 158.30 overhead.
Support: 158.10, 158.00, 157.825
Resistance: 158.257, 158.303, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.30 (61.8% fib) opens the path back toward 158.40 and the 158.60 Asia high
A break of the NY rally line and loss of the 158.10 neckline would undercut the double bottom and put the 158.00 round number in play
Failure to hold the 157.83 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
16:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, testing range top · RSI 60 · price 158.228
Double bottom at 157.83 NY low, neckline broken, price at London high.
Asia-session selling from 158.60 stalled in a 158.03–158.23 London range. The US housing misses then knocked price to a 157.83 NY low. A double bottom there and a break of the 158.10 neckline have lifted price back to the 158.23–158.25 London high, which is also the 50% retrace of the Asia-to-NY decline. RSI(14) sits near 60 with ATR(14) around 11 pips.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.25, 158.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 London high opens the fib 61.8 at 158.30
Slip back below the 158.10 neckline puts the London low at 158.03 back in play
Loss of the 157.83 NY low would void the double bottom read
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the Asian range
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, sharp late-NY rebound · RSI 61 · price 158.198
False break of London low reversed; price testing London high at 50% retrace.
USD/JPY slid from the 158.60 Asia high through Tokyo and London. During NY hours, the US housing misses pushed it through the 158.03 London low to a 157.83 NY low. That false break reversed sharply in the last hour: price is back at the 158.23 London high and the 50% retrace of the Asia-high to NY-low drop, with RSI(14) near 61 and the 38.2% fib at 158.12 now underneath.
Support: 158.12, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.23, 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 London high exposes the 61.8% fib at 158.30, then the 158.60 Asia high
Rejection at the London high and a slip below the 38.2% fib at 158.12 puts the 158.03 London low back in play
Loss of the 157.83 NY low would confirm a fresh lower-low and negate the false-break read
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the Asian-session read
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off NY low · RSI 59 · price 158.191
Lower highs from 158.60; double bottom at 157.83 broke 158.10 neckline.
USDJPY bled from the 158.60 Asian high through London. Soft US data, with the ADP average cooling and pending home sales at -7.3%, then extended the drop to a 157.83 NY low. A double bottom at 157.84/157.83 has cleared its 158.10 neckline, and price is now pressing the 158.23 London high near the 50% retracement into London close, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.23, 158.30, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 London high opens the 61.8% fib at 158.30, then the 158.60 Asian high
Slip back below the 158.10 neckline negates the double bottom; the 158.03 London low and 157.83 NY low come back into focus
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 56 · price 158.157
Lower highs from the Asian high; NY base at 157.83–157.88, descending trendline broken.
The slide from the 158.60 Asian high bottomed at the 157.83 NY low after soft US housing data hit USD. Buyers stepped in three times at 157.83–157.88. The bounce has cleared the 158.10 NY range top and the descending trendline, and is now pressing the 158.18 NY high just below the 158.23 London high and the 50% fib. RSI(14) is near 56 and price is sitting on the EMA50.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.83
Resistance: 158.18, 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.23 London high and 50% fib opens a retracement toward the 158.60 Asian high.
A slip back below the 158.10 NY range top returns price to the 157.83–158.10 NY range, with the 158.03 London low inside it.
A break of the 157.83 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence.
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC and any US-Iran headlines could shift this read.
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce off lows · RSI 49 · price 158.109
Lower highs from Asian high, NY low printed, retesting trendline.
USD/JPY bled lower from the 158.60 Asian high through London. NY broke the London low near 158.03 after the US housing misses and printed a 157.83 NY low, where demand stepped in three times. The late-NY bounce is now pressing the falling trendline and 38.2% fib near 158.12.
Support: 158.033, 157.825
Resistance: 158.12, 158.23, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 London high breaks the lower-high sequence from the Asian high
Rejection at the 38.2% fib and trendline, then loss of the 158.03 London low, puts the 157.83 NY low back in focus
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the Asia-session read
Lower highs since Asia; post-data range 157.825–158.10.
Soft US data (ADP 4-week average slowdown, housing starts miss) knocked USD/JPY through the London range low during the London-NY transition, extending the Asia-session slide to a 157.825 session low. Since then price has chopped between 157.825 and the 158.10 post-data high with lower highs, demand stepping in around 157.83–157.88 three times. Price sits at the 38.2% fib retrace of the 158.23–157.825 drop, RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 157.825, 157.50
Resistance: 158.10, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 post-data high breaks the lower highs sequence and exposes the 158.23 london high
Failure to hold the 157.825 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 157.50 range floor in play
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY · RSI 44 · price 157.954
Lower highs from the 158.60 Asia high; London range low broken, NY consolidating below it.
Lower highs since the 158.60 Asia high; first hour of NY broke the London low at 158.03 as soft US housing data and lower yields weighed on USD. Price is boxed 157.82–158.11, rebounds capped at the NY high just under the 38.2% fib and a marginal new NY low at 157.825; RSI(14) 44, neutral.
Support: 157.825, 157.50
Resistance: 158.03, 158.106, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the London low at 158.03 and the NY high at 158.106 neutralises the break; the London high at 158.23 sits near the 50% fib
Failure to hold the NY low at 157.825 exposes the 157.50 range floor
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could jolt the pair in thin Asia hours
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 34 · price 157.831
London range broken lower, NY session printing lower highs.
USDJPY faded from the 158.60 Asia high through Tokyo hours. London then held a 158.03–158.23 range (london low to london high) before early NY broke below it to 157.84 as DXY slipped and Fed hike pricing faded. The 14:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 158.10 ny high, and price is now printing a fresh session low at 157.825, with RSI(14) at 34 and not yet stretched.
Support: 157.825, 157.50
Resistance: 158.03, 158.10, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 london low (50% retrace of the NY leg) negates the range break
Failure to hold the 157.825 session low leaves the 157.50 range floor as the next reference
A move through the 158.10 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence; 158.23 london high caps above
Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift the Asian session read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce testing broken support · RSI 44 · price 158.017
Lower highs from 158.60; London low broken on data, higher low at 157.88.
Asia session sold off from 158.60 into a 158.03–158.23 London range, then the housing starts miss at 12:30 UTC broke the London low to a 157.84 session low. NY has since printed a higher low at 157.88 and is retesting the broken London low near 158.03, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the Asia-NY drop.
Support: 157.88, 157.84
Resistance: 158.03, 158.106, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 London low and the 158.11 lower high neutralises the break; the 158.23 London high and descending line sit above
Loss of the 157.88 higher low reopens the 157.84 session low, with the 157.50 range floor below
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (current bar) and Japan trade balance at 23:50 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.60; NY broke the London low, bounce capped at 158.11.
Lower highs run from the 158.60 Asian session high through the 158.23 london high. NY broke the london low and printed a 157.84 ny low as DXY slipped and US Housing Starts missed, then the bounce was rejected at a 158.11 lower high. Price sits near 157.90 with RSI(14) around 36 and ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.04, 158.11, 158.23
What it said to watch
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is due as this bar opens and could extend or reverse the NY move
M15 close back above the 158.04 london low puts the 158.11 lower high in play, and a close above 158.11 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 157.84 ny low opens the 157.50 range floor
A move back toward the 158.23 london high would test the lower-highs trendline
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce fading · RSI 40 · price 158.004
Lower highs since Asia; London range broken lower, retest from below.
Selling from the 158.60 Asian high pushed USDJPY to the London range at 158.04–158.23. The range broke at 12:15 UTC on the cooler ADP average and the Housing Starts miss, printing a 157.84 day low. The rebound stalled at the 158.11 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price is now retesting the broken london low from below with the falling highs line intact.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.04, 158.106, 158.23
What it said to watch
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift the early-NY read
M15 close back above the 158.23 london high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 157.84 day low extends the move toward the 157.50 range floor
Acceptance above the 158.04 london low and 158.106 bounce high signals the range break has failed
Lower highs from Asia high; London range floor broken, now being retested from below.
Steady selling from the 158.60 Asia high printed lower highs into a 158.03–158.23 London range. The US morning broke the london low to 157.84 around the soft Housing Starts miss as the dollar slipped. The rebound has stalled under the 158.11 bounce high, right back at the broken floor, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.04, 158.11, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.11 bounce high puts price back inside the London range and opens the 158.23 london high and lower highs trendline
Rejection at the 158.04 london low keeps the retest from below intact
Break of the 157.84 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 range floor
Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC is the next scheduled JPY risk; Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 158.08
False break below London range, price back inside 158.03–158.23.
USD/JPY bled from the 158.60 Asia high into a 158.03–158.23 London range. Around the US data window, with a soft Housing Starts miss, a break of the London low ran to a 157.84 spike low and was bought back into the range. Early NY, price at 158.08 sits below the descending line from the Asia high, near the 38.2% retrace of that drop.
Support: 158.03, 157.84
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 london high breaks the descending line and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 158.03 london low reopens the 157.84 spike low
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt the NY session range
13:01 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, bouncing off lows · RSI 47 · price 158.08
Lower highs since 158.60; false break below London low.
Sellers have capped each bounce since the Asia high at 158.60, and London held a 158.03–158.23 range. Around the Housing Starts miss, price broke the London low to a session low at 157.84 and recovered back above 158.03 into the NY open. RSI(14) is near 47, mid-range.
Support: 158.03, 157.84
Resistance: 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.03 London low reopens the 157.84 session low
Close above the 158.23 London high and the trendline from the Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could extend the ~9-pip ATR swings
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early NY · RSI 30 · price 157.86
Lower highs from the Asia high, London range broken lower.
USD/JPY broke the 158.03 London low and the 158.00 round number in early NY. The 26-pip bar extends the slide from the 158.60 Asia high to a 157.84 session low, with RSI(14) near 30. The move fits the softer-USD digest after another rejection near 158.55, and the 157.50 range floor is the next reference below.
Support: 157.84, 157.50
Resistance: 158.03, 158.23
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.03 London low puts price back inside the London range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 157.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 range floor
Close above the trendline resistance from the 158.60 Asia high, and above the 158.23 London high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC and any MoF/intervention headlines could shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend stalled into sideways range · RSI 41 · price 158.094
Asia sell-off from 158.60, London ranging 158.03–158.23.
Supply capped the Asian high near 158.60 as the dollar gave back gains on settled Fed-pause pricing, and a 57-pip slide into London open found a floor at the 158.03 range low. London has since held a 20-pip box with the range top at 158.23, close to the 38.2% fib of the drop. Early NY is pressing the lower half of the box, and RSI(14) is near 41.
Support: 158.033, 158.00
Resistance: 158.23, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 range low and the 158.00 round number resumes the Asia-session leg lower
Close above the 158.23 range top opens the 158.40 breakdown pt, where the Asia drop accelerated
Reclaiming 158.40 puts the 158.60 Asian high back in play
Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could jolt the Asian range
12:16 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, now flat in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 158.128
Lower highs off 158.60, London range 158.03–158.23 holding.
Rejection at the 158.60 asia high came as USD stayed on the defensive. The pair then slid to a 158.03 session low into London open. London has since held a tight 158.03–158.23 range, with the range top just under the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off; price sits mid-range at the London-NY transition, RSI(14) neutral at 43.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.23, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 session low (tested three times in London) extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.23 range top and 38.2% fib reopens the 158.40 breakdown area, with the 158.60 asia high above
Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC; US yield moves during NY hours remain the main near-term driver
12:01 UTC
Asia sell-off stalled, London basing · RSI 53 · price 158.203
158.03–158.23 London range, higher lows.
Asia rolled over from a double top at the 158.60 asian high and fell to the 158.03 london low at London open. London has since held a 158.03–158.23 range with higher lows. Price is pressing the london high into NY open, just under the 38.2% retrace near 158.25, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and EMA50 overhead.
Support: 158.09, 158.03
Resistance: 158.23, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.23 london high breaks the range and brings the 38.2% retrace and the 158.40 breakdown level into play
Loss of the 158.09 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.03 london low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and US housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) at NY open could shift this read
Asian high at 158.60 remains the session cap; a return there would erase the Asia sell-off
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, basing in London · RSI 55 · price 158.197
London range 158.03–158.23, higher lows since 09:00 UTC.
Asia was rejected at the 158.60 high, near the 200-day zone the digest flags as a repeated cap, and selling ran to the 158.03 London low by London open. London has since held a 158.03–158.23 range, with higher lows off 158.05 and the 158.09 higher low. Price is now pressing the 158.22 session high in late London, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 158.09, 158.03
Resistance: 158.225, 158.32, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.22 session high brings the fib 38.2% at 158.25 and the fib 50% at 158.32 into view
Failure to hold the 158.09 higher low returns focus to the 158.03 London low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) land at NY open and could resolve the London range
The 158.60 Asia high sits near the 200-day zone where rallies have been rejected
Lower highs from Asia high, tight London range 158.03–158.23 with higher lows.
The Asia high at 158.60 was rejected near the 200-day SMA flagged in the digest. The slide then broke the Asian range low at London open, reaching 158.03. London has since compressed between the london low at 158.03 and the london high at 158.225, with a higher low near 158.09, and price is pinned at the 23.6% retrace of the drop.
Support: 158.09, 158.033
Resistance: 158.225, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 158.225 (near the 38.2% retrace) reopens the 158.40 breakdown pivot
Loss of the 158.09 higher low and the 158.03 london low resumes the lower-low sequence
ADP at 12:15 UTC and housing data at 12:30 UTC land at the NY open and could break the London range
Asia high at 158.60 is the upper bound of the 24h structure
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled in a London range · RSI 51 · price 158.146
Lower highs from 158.60 Asia high; flat base at 158.03–158.05 through London.
USD/JPY was rejected again near 158.55–158.60 in the Asia session as US yields faded, and slid 57 pips to the 158.03 London low just after London open. Since then it has held a tight 158.03–158.22 range, with the London high just under the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is about 7.5 pips.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC, early in the NY session, could break the London range
M15 close above the 158.22 london high and 38.2% fib opens the 158.40 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 158.03 london low exposes the 158.00 round number and extends the lower-low chain
Any recovery toward the 158.60 asia high would retest the session's rejection zone
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 48 · price 158.099
Asia sell-off from 158.60, London ranging 158.03–158.22.
USD/JPY was rejected at the 158.60 Asia high and slid through Asia as Treasury yields failed to extend, bottoming at the 158.03 session low into London open. London has held a tight 158.03–158.22 band, with three tests of 158.03–158.05 absorbed and the london high capping. Price sits just under EMA20 and EMA50, RSI neutral near 48.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.225 london high clears the range top and the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off near 158.25
US ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) could break the London range
158.60 asia high remains the cap on any recovery leg
10:46 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, stalling into a base · RSI 53 · price 158.14
Lower highs off 158.60, London ranging 158.03–158.23.
Two rejections at the 158.60 Asian high gave way to a 57-pip slide as US yields failed to extend. Mid-London, price is holding a 158.03–158.23 range, with the London low tested three times. Lower highs still cap price under the descending trendline.
Support: 158.033, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.316, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 London high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the fib 50% at 158.32 into view
Failure to hold the 158.03 London low exposes the 158.00 round number
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC fall near the NY open and could break the London range
10:31 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a base · RSI 50 · price 158.152
Lower highs from the Asia high, London ranging 158.03–158.23.
Asia session rejected the 158.60 Asia high and USD/JPY bled about 57 pips, a slide that fits the digest's softer-yield dollar read. London has since tested the 158.03 London low three times and capped at the 158.225 London high, with price pinned at EMA20 near the 23.6% fib and RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 158.033, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 158.00 round number
Close above the 158.225 London high, near the 38.2% fib, reopens the 158.40 shelf where the Asia sell-off broke
US ADP and housing data at 12:15–12:30 UTC are second-tier but could break the London range into NY open
Japan Trade Balance at 23:50 UTC is the next JPY-side print
Lower highs off 158.60 Asian double top; London basing 158.03–158.22.
USD/JPY was rejected twice at the 158.60 asian high near the 200-day SMA zone, then slid about 55 pips as yields failed to extend. London has held a 158.03 session low three times, with the bounce stalling at the 158.22 london high below the 38.2% fib. Price is hugging EMA20 just above the 158.10 prior low, with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 8 pips pointing to compression mid-London.
Support: 158.10, 158.03
Resistance: 158.22, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence from the asian high
Close above the 158.22 london high and the 38.2% fib reopens the 158.40 asia pivot
Failure to hold the 158.10 prior low keeps price pinned against the session low
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) are second-tier but could break the London range
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in London · RSI 44 · price 158.133
Lower highs from 158.60; 158.03–158.23 London range.
USD/JPY was rejected again at the 158.60 Asian high near the 200-day SMA as US yields failed to follow through, then slid to a 158.03 session low into London open. London has held a 158.03–158.23 range, with buyers stepping in at 158.04–158.05 twice; price sits below EMA20 (~158.16), RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.23 london high, just under the 38.2% fib, opens the 158.40 prior pivot
Failure to hold the 158.03 session low exposes the 158.00 psych handle
US ADP and Housing Starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC, early NY session, could break the London range
Recovery back through 158.40 would put the 158.60 asian high and 200-day SMA back in play
Lower highs from Asia high; London range 158.03–158.23.
USD/JPY has printed a lower-high sequence since the 158.60 Asia high, slipping under the 158.10 Monday low at London open as Treasury yields failed to follow through. London has since held a 158.03–158.23 range, with the london low tested twice and the bounce stalling below the 38.2% fib of the Asia-high leg; RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.033, 158.00
Resistance: 158.10, 158.225, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.225 london high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Acceptance back above the 158.10 monday low would turn it back into support
Failure to hold the 158.033 london low exposes the 158.00 round number
US Housing Starts/Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs from Asian high; London range 158.03–158.23 holding.
USD/JPY was rejected at the 158.60 Asian high, near the 200-day SMA flagged in the digest, and slid about 57 pips into London as US yields faded. London has twice held the 158.03–158.04 London low, but the bounce stalled at the 158.225 London high, under the descending trendline and short of the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at about 43.
Support: 158.035, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.316, 158.599
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.225 London high and the descending trendline opens the fib 50% at 158.32
Failure to hold the 158.03 London low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number
Reclaim of the 158.60 Asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
US housing data and ADP 12:15–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a base · RSI 41 · price 158.119
Lower highs from the Asia high; London holding a 158.03–158.23 base.
Rejection at the 158.60 Asia high started a 56-pip slide to a 158.03 London low at the open, as softer US yields kept USD heavy. London has since held a tight base between 158.03 and the 158.225 bounce high, still below the 38.2% fib and EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 158.033, 158.00
Resistance: 158.225, 158.40, 158.599
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 158.03 and the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 158.225 bounce high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 158.40 breakdown zone
Only a reclaim of the 158.60 asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US Housing Starts / Building Permits 12:15–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.60 Asian high; London basing in 158.03–158.22 band.
A rejection at the 158.60 Asian high in early Tokyo trade set off a lower-high slide through the prior low at 158.10, to a 158.03 session low at London open, as softer yields kept USD heavy. London has since compressed between 158.03 and the 158.22 London high, holding below the fib 38.2 at 158.25 and the descending trendline, RSI(14) ~41.
Support: 158.10, 158.03
Resistance: 158.22, 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 158.22 London high and the fib 38.2 at 158.25 breaks the descending trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Holding above the 158.10 prior low keeps the London band intact
US Housing Starts, Building Permits and Pending Home Sales (12:15–14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A recovery toward the 158.60 Asian high would retest the area where the selloff began
08:46 UTC
Downtrend from 158.60, bouncing off lows · RSI 48 · price 158.203
Lower highs from the Asia high; twin lows 158.03/158.05 with neckline 158.19 just reclaimed.
Rejection at the 158.60 Asia high early in the Asia session led to a steady lower-high slide as US yields eased. Price undercut the Monday low and printed a 158.03 session low into London open. A second low at 158.05 held, and price has lifted back above the 158.19 neckline and EMA20, with the 38.2% fib at 158.25 next overhead.
Support: 158.19, 158.10, 158.03
Resistance: 158.25, 158.38, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.19 neckline undercuts the double bottom read
Loss of the Monday low at 158.10 and then the 158.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 38.2% fib at 158.25 challenges the downtrend read; the 61.8% fib at 158.38 and the Asia high at 158.60 sit above
US Housing Starts / Building Permits 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift this read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend off the Asia high, early London bounce · RSI 46 · price 158.174
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, basing at 158.03–158.05.
USD/JPY was capped at the 158.60 Asia high early in the session. It then fell about 55 pips in a lower-high chain to the 158.03 London low at London open as US yields eased. Early London is basing at 158.03–158.05 and has reclaimed the 158.10 prior low, with the 158.19 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 158.25 overhead.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.50
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 swing high would print the first higher high since the Asia selloff
Rejection at the 38.2% fib near 158.25 keeps the Asia downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 158.03 London low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.50 range floor
US Housing Starts, Building Permits and Pending Home Sales (12:15–14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into London open · RSI 34 · price 158.047
Asia sell-off from 158.60 broke yesterday's 158.10 low; LH/LL chain intact.
The Asian session put in a double top at the 158.60 asia high, just above the 200-day SMA near 158.55 that has rejected price repeatedly. That was followed by a ~57-pip slide as softer US yields weighed on USD. Early in the London session, price is pressing the 158.03 session low below yesterday's 158.10 prior low, with each lower high capping bounces and RSI(14) near 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 158.033, 158.00, 157.50
Resistance: 158.10, 158.225, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.10 prior low and the lower-highs trendline weakens the sell-off read
A break of the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low chain; the 157.50 range base is the next digest-cited support
Reclaiming the 158.225 lower high, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia sell-off, shifts structure to a range
US Housing Starts / Building Permits / Pending Home Sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift this read in NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.60 Asia high; London open swept the prior-day low.
Price was rejected twice at the 158.60 Asia high, near the 200-day cap the digest flags, as USD eased. That started a lower-high slide through Asia. The first hour of London swept Monday's 158.10 low to a 158.03 london low; price is back near 158.10 with RSI(14) at 37 and ranges compressing above the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
38.2% fib of the Asia decline at 158.25 is the first retracement cap to monitor
Failure to hold the 158.03 london low exposes the 158.00 round number
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the NY session read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, early London stabilising · RSI 35 · price 158.104
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high.
USD/JPY rolled over from the 158.60 Asian high in the Asia session as USD eased on AI-equity jitters. It has carved lower highs under a descending trendline since. Early London dipped through the prior low at 158.06 to a 158.03 session low before a shallow bounce, with RSI(14) near 35 and the 158.00 round number just below.
Support: 158.06, 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.19 swing high breaks the trendline and the lower-high chain; fib 38.2 at 158.25 is next overhead
Failure to hold the 158.03 session low exposes the 158.00 round number
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift this read into the NY session
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London open · RSI 29 · price 158.056
Lower highs and lower lows from the 158.60 Asia high.
USD/JPY has given back Monday's climb, sliding about 57 pips from the 158.60 Asia high in a chain of lower highs capped by a falling trendline, as DXY slips back below 102.00 in early European trade. Price is pressing the 158.03 London low, which sits just under Monday's 158.04 low, with the 158.00 round number beneath and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 158.03, 158.00
Resistance: 158.19, 158.25, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.00 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond Monday's low.
A close above the 158.19 lower high would break the falling trendline. The 38.2% fib of the decline sits near 158.25.
A return to the 158.60 Asia high would negate the decline from the session top.
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC, then Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC, could shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.60 Asian high; London opening near the session low.
Asia sold off from the 158.60 Asian high to a 158.06 session low, unwinding Monday's NY gains as USD stays heavy with DXY below 102.00. London open is trading just above that low with RSI(14) near 32, and rebounds are capped by the 158.25 lower high, below the 23.6% fib of the Asian drop.
Support: 158.06, 158.00, 157.96
Resistance: 158.25, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.06 session low and the 158.00 round number exposes Monday's 157.96 prior low
Reclaim of the 158.25 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 158.40 breakdown level aligns with the 61.8% fib
Return toward the 158.60 asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via front-end yields
Lower highs and lower lows since the 158.60 Asian high.
Asia capped twice at the 158.60 asian high, then unwound most of Monday's London-NY rally to a 158.06 asian low as the USD stayed heavy on lower front-end yields. RSI(14) is near 29 heading into London open and price sits under the falling trendline, with the round number at 158.00 just below.
Support: 158.057, 158.00, 157.877
Resistance: 158.247, 158.392, 158.599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.25 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Retrace into the 158.33–158.39 zone (50%–fib 61.8 of the Asian drop) would test the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the asian low and the 158.00 round number exposes Monday's 157.88 prior low
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during the NY session
06:46 UTC
Downtrend since the Asian high, RSI stretched low · RSI 22 · price 158.076
Lower highs and lower lows from 158.60, below 61.8% of Monday's rally.
Asia session faded steadily from the 158.60 asian high at 01:00 UTC as a soft dollar on AI-led equity jitters and trimmed Fed-hike bets weighed. Price is at the session low ahead of London open, below the fib 61.8 of Monday's 157.88–158.60 rally and capped by a falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 22 and the 158.00 psych level just below.
Support: 158.00, 157.88
Resistance: 158.15, 158.23, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.00 psych level exposes Monday's 157.88 swing low
Close back above the 158.23 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 158.15 fib 61.8 would mark the first stall in the Asia selloff
US ADP 4-week average and housing starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs/lower lows from 158.60, now basing at 158.10.
Asia session sold off from the 158.60 asia high to 158.10 as the softer USD tone weighed. The drop retraced roughly 69% of yesterday's advance from the 157.88 prior low. Ahead of London open, three bars have held the 158.10 asia low just under the 61.8% fib (158.15), with the 158.25 lower high capping. RSI(14) sits near 27, cooling but not stretched.
Support: 158.10, 158.03, 157.88
Resistance: 158.25, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.10 asia low exposes the 78.6% fib near 158.03, then the 157.88 prior low
M15 close above the 158.25 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence; the 158.40 breakdown level sits above
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 27 · price 158.157
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 158.60, basing at 158.11 session low.
Rejection at the 158.60 Asian high started a steady lower-high chain through Asia. DXY slipping in early Europe kept the pair heavy into a 158.11 session low. Ahead of London open, price is flat just above that low, with RSI(14) near 27 and the descending trendline and 158.25 lower high overhead.
Support: 158.11, 158.00, 157.88
Resistance: 158.25, 158.42, 158.60
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.11 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 158.00 round number and the 157.88 monday low
M15 close above the 158.25 lower high and descending trendline breaks the Asia downtrend structure; 158.42 swing high (61.8% fib) is next
Asian high at 158.60 remains the top of the 24h range
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and housing starts (12:30 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
05:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 158.174
Lower-high chain from 158.60 double top, base forming near 158.15.
The Asia session reversed from a 158.60 double top and dropped about 45 pips to a session low at 158.145, slipping back under the 158.40 breakdown level of Monday's NY plateau. Highs keep stepping lower under the descending trendline, the bounce high at 158.247 is capping for now, and RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, with soft USD tone weighing into London open.
Support: 158.145, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.247, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
Break of the 158.145 session low exposes the london pivot at 158.10, then the monday low at 157.877
M15 close above the 158.247 bounce high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain; the 158.40 breakdown level aligns with the fib 50–61.8% zone
London open around 07:00 UTC may set a new range relative to the Asian session low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC during the London-NY transition could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia session selloff · RSI 29 · price 158.226
Lower highs from 158.60 double top, Asian low 158.145.
Asia session rejected twice at 158.60, forming a double top. Price has since printed lower highs and broken the 158.36–158.40 breakdown zone, which undoes Monday's yield-driven grind higher, and an Asian low has formed at 158.145. RSI(14) near 29 sits on the soft side but is not stretched, and the late-Asia bar is drifting at 158.22 with London open about 1h45m away.
Support: 158.145, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.36, 158.599
What it said to watch
Close back above 158.36 breakdown (50–61.8% fib zone) breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 158.145 asian low exposes the 158.10 swing low, then the 157.88 monday low
London open could test the Asian range; reclaiming 158.60 double top negates the reversal read
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC and Treasury yields remain the day's swing factor
Lower-high chain off the Asian high, price at session low.
Asia session sold off steadily from the 158.60 Asian high, printing a clean lower-high sequence and giving back most of Monday's climb from the 157.88 Monday low, in step with a softer USD after DXY slipped back below 102.00. Price sits at the 158.145 session low with RSI(14) near 24. The prior lows around 158.10 are the next shelf below.
Support: 158.145, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.28, 158.42, 158.599
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 158.10 prior lows exposes the 157.88 Monday low
M15 close above the 158.28 minor high would be the first break in the lower-high chain; a close above the 158.42 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
London open in ~2h could extend or reverse the Asian-session move
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC; Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC
Lower highs from 158.60 Asian top, testing 61.8% of prior rally.
Asia topped twice at 158.60 (asia high) and has since stepped down in a lower-high chain, giving back yesterday's 157.88–158.60 rally to its 61.8% fib at 158.15 ahead of London open, in step with DXY slipping back below 102.00. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, with the 50% fib at 158.24 the first cap and the 158.42 lower high above it.
Support: 158.15, 158.10, 157.88
Resistance: 158.24, 158.42, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 157.88 prior low
Recovery above the 158.42 lower high breaks the descending sequence and negates the double top read
London open in ~2h is likely to set the next session range
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
04:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 01:15 UTC · RSI 25 · price 158.177
Asia double top at 158.60 broke lower; LH/LL chain into the Tokyo session.
Asia session put in a double top at 158.60. A slide from 02:15 UTC broke the 158.40 break level and has unwound about 42 pips to 158.17, with every bounce capped at a lower high. RSI(14) is near 25 as price leans toward the 158.10 swing low, with soft USD tone and US yields the backdrop.
Support: 158.10, 158.00, 157.877
Resistance: 158.26, 158.40, 158.60
What it said to watch
Loss of the 158.10 swing low exposes the 158.00 round number and the 157.88 day low from the London open dip
M15 close above the 158.26 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 158.40 break level and 50% retrace back in play
Reclaim of the 158.40 break level negates the double top read
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone in NY
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 27 · price 158.243
Double top at 158.60, lower-high chain, NY range floor broken.
Late Asia session: price turned from a double top at the 158.60 Asian high into a clean lower-high chain. It broke the 158.44 range floor that held through NY afternoon and now sits at the 158.22 session low, with RSI(14) near 27. The slide fits the digest's read of USD/JPY capped near the 158.50 range top despite firm US yields.
Support: 158.22, 158.10, 157.88
Resistance: 158.34, 158.44, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.34 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the Asia sell-off sequence
Recapture of the 158.44 range floor, near the 61.8% of the Asia sell-off fib, would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 158.22 session low exposes the 158.10 swing low from Monday's London pullback, then the 157.88 prior low
London open shortly could extend or reverse the Asian range break; US housing starts at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
04:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 27 · price 158.265
Asia double top at 158.60, late-NY range floor broken, now testing 50% fib.
Late in the Asia session, USDJPY formed a double top at the 158.60 Asia high and then fell about 35 pips. The drop broke the 158.44-158.55 late-NY range and printed a string of descending highs. Price is now at the 50% fib of yesterday's 157.88-158.60 London-NY rally near 158.24, with RSI(14) near 27 but not yet extreme. This comes despite elevated US yields that lifted the pair in early Asian trade.
Support: 158.24, 158.20, 158.10
Resistance: 158.42, 158.50, 158.60
What it said to watch
Hold of the 50% fib at 158.24 and the 158.20 prior pivot; a close below exposes the 158.10 swing low and the 61.8% at 158.15
Close back above the 158.42 lower high breaks the descending highs trendline
Reclaim of 158.50 psych puts the 158.60 Asia high back in focus
London open in about 3h tends to set the session range
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
04:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asia high · RSI 33 · price 158.331
Double top at 158.60, lower highs, broken floor at 158.44.
USD/JPY was rejected twice at the 158.60 Asia high, then put in lower highs through the Asian session as USD softened again. The pair broke the 158.44 broken floor (the NY afternoon range base) and now sits on the 38.2% fib of Monday's 157.88–158.60 rally, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 158.27, 158.10
Resistance: 158.44, 158.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.44 broken floor and the Asia trendline would negate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 158.27 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 158.24, then the 158.10 london pivot
A reclaim of the 158.60 asia high would void the double top read
London open is the next test of the Asian low; US ADP 12:15Z and Housing Starts/Permits 12:30Z could shift the read in NY hours
03:46 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs forming · RSI 39 · price 158.408
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 158.60 inside Monday's London-NY rally.
Monday's London-open low at 157.88 started a steady climb through NY into an Asia high at 158.60, where a double top formed before late-Asia selling printed a lower high at 158.48 and a fresh asia low at 158.355, with RSI(14) near 39. Price has slipped back below Monday's late-NY 158.44–158.55 shelf despite firm US yields, roughly a quarter retrace of the london-asia leg, with the 158.27 swing low from Monday NY the next reference.
Support: 158.355, 158.27
Resistance: 158.48, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.355 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 38.2% fib near 158.32 and the 158.27 swing low
Reclaim of the 158.48 lower high and the Asia trendline negates the pullback read
Asia high at 158.60 remains the cap; acceptance above it resumes the London-NY rally structure
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30Z in the NY session could shift the intraday read
03:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asia high · RSI 36 · price 158.386
Lower highs and lower lows since 158.60, rollover lows broken.
Tuesday's Asia session formed a double top at 158.60 and has printed lower highs since, breaking the 158.46 rollover lows to a 158.36 session low as front-end US yields softened. Price sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of Monday's London-NY rally from 157.88. RSI(14) is near 36 with room before oversold, and the 158.27 swing low from Monday NY is the next pivot below.
Support: 158.36, 158.32, 158.27
Resistance: 158.48, 158.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 158.48 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
A break below the 158.36 session low and the 38.2% fib at 158.32 brings the 158.27 swing low into play
A close above the 158.60 double top reopens the 159.05 range top cited in the digest
US yield moves into London open and Housing Starts at 12:30Z could shift this read
Asia double top at 158.60, fresh session low at 158.40.
Monday's rise from the 157.88 London-open low, helped by firmer US yields, topped twice at the 158.60 asia high early in the Asia session. The rejection sent price through the overnight 158.48–158.55 shelf to a 158.40 asia low. Mid-Asia, the rebound is capped at the 158.48 bounce high and the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below EMA20/50.
Support: 158.40, 158.27
Resistance: 158.48, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.40 asia low extends the pullback toward the 38.2% fib near 158.32 and the 158.27 swing low
Recovery through the 158.48 bounce high and the falling trendline weakens the double top read
Close back above the 158.60 asia high reopens the 159.05 range top
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z and US yield moves could shift the read in NY
The Monday rally from the 157.88 London-open low stalled near the 158.55 prior high. Asia then printed twin highs at the 158.60 asia high, a false break of that level, before slipping through the 158.48 neckline to a 158.40 asia low even with the yen still soft. Price is now retesting 158.48 from below, under EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR around 6.5 pips.
Support: 158.40, 158.38, 158.32
Resistance: 158.48, 158.55, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 158.48 neckline negates the double-top break and puts the 158.55 prior high back in play
Loss of the 158.40 asia low and 158.38 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement of the Monday rally at 158.32
Reclaim of the 158.60 asia high would turn the false break into a range extension
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z is the next scheduled USD catalyst
Asia session double top at 158.60, neckline at 158.48 broken, lower low at 158.40.
Mid-Asia session, USDJPY rolled over from a 158.60 double top. It broke the 158.48 neckline and the Asian range to print a session low at 158.40, giving back the 23.6% retracement of Monday's 157.88–158.60 rally. RSI(14) is near 35 and price sits below both EMAs, a dip that runs against the digest's soft-yen backdrop, with the NY pivot at 158.38 just beneath.
Support: 158.40, 158.38, 158.27
Resistance: 158.48, 158.60
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 158.48 neckline returns price to the 158.48–158.60 range and negates the double top break
Failure to hold the 158.38 ny pivot exposes the 158.32 38.2% rally fib and the 158.27 swing low
A move back through the 158.60 double top would mark a fresh high and reset the read
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD input
Asia double top at 158.60, slipping below session low.
Monday's London-open dip to 157.88 turned into a steady climb through NY as the yen lagged and US yields firmed. Asia capped twice at the 158.60 asia high and has slipped below the 158.48 session low. Price now sits on the 158.46 rollover low with RSI(14) near 44, and the 23.6% fib of the London low–Asia high move lines up with the 158.44 ny swing low.
Support: 158.456, 158.438, 158.382
Resistance: 158.547, 158.599
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 158.44–158.46 (rollover low / ny swing low, 23.6% fib) exposes the 158.38 ny open low
A close back above the 158.55 ny high reopens the 158.60 asia high and negates the double top
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the read in the NY session
Higher lows off Monday's London low, now a tight Asian range near the highs.
USD/JPY ground up from Monday's 157.88 London-open low to 158.60 as the yen lagged and US yields rebounded. Tuesday's Asian range is compressing between the asian low at 158.46 and the asian high at 158.60, with two rejections at the top. Dips toward 158.48 were absorbed and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54.
Support: 158.46, 158.32
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 asian high opens the path toward the 159.05 range top
Failure to hold the 158.46 asian low exposes the fib 38.2 retracement at 158.32
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC and Japan trade data at 23:50 UTC could shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, flattening into range · RSI 53 · price 158.555
Tight Asian range 158.48–158.60 above Monday's NY low.
Monday's rally from the 157.88 London-open low ground through NY to 158.55, with the yen soft on fiscal headlines. Asia has compressed into a 158.48–158.60 range: the session high at 158.60 is capping and the asian low at 158.48 has held twice. RSI(14) is near 53 and ATR is about 5.5 pips, so momentum is flat mid-session.
Support: 158.48, 158.44
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high opens the path toward the 159.05 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
Failure to hold the 158.48 asian low exposes the 158.44 ny low and the 0.236 rally fib near 158.43
A break below the 158.44 ny low would end Monday's higher-low sequence
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range during NY hours
Tight Asian range 158.48–158.60 above the NY highs.
Monday's London-open dip to 157.88 reversed into a steady NY-session grind higher as the 10y rebounded to 5.13%. Asia has since capped twice at the 158.60 asian high, with the asian low at 158.48 holding. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR has compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 158.48, 158.44, 158.32
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 asian high breaks the two-tap cap and opens the 159.05 range top
Failure to hold the 158.48 asian low and the 158.44 ny lows exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.32
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could move USD later today
Tight 158.45–158.60 range capping the day's rally.
The day's rally ran 72 pips. It started from a brief London undercut of the Asian range at 157.88 and reached the 158.55 ny high as US yields firmed, then flattened into a 158.45–158.60 range. Early Tokyo session has rejected the 158.60 tokyo high twice, with price back at 158.50 and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 158.485, 158.456
Resistance: 158.55, 158.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.485 tokyo low turns the twin rejection into a lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.456 rollover low
Close above the 158.60 tokyo high breaks the range and opens the 159.05 range top
Clearing the 158.55 ny high on a closing basis is the first sign the range top is giving way
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could break the range during NY hours
A pullback through the rollover low brings the 38.2% retrace of the day's rally near 158.32 into view
Higher lows from 157.88; late-NY consolidation 158.44–158.55, early Asia testing the top.
Monday rally from the 157.88 London-open low stalled into a 158.44–158.55 consolidation through late NY, with the 10y back at 5.13% keeping USD firm. Early Asia session is pressing a fresh session high at 158.60, marginally above the 158.55 prior high; RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 158.55, 158.485, 158.44
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold above 158.55 prior high turns the push into a false break back inside the consolidation
Break of 158.485 asia low and the 158.44 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
159.05 range top sits about 45 pips above; MoF verbal intervention risk builds into 159–160
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
HH/HL chain from 157.877 London low; Asia retesting session high.
Monday's London open swept the Asian low to 157.877 before a 70-pip grind higher through NY, helped by firmer USD as 10y yields rebounded to 5.13% and the yen stayed soft. In early Asia, price is back at the 158.60 session high after holding the 158.485 pullback low, with the prior high at 158.55 acting as a floor and RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 158.55, 158.485, 158.456
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.60 session high extends the HH chain toward the 159.05 range top, where MoF verbal intervention risk rises
Break below the 158.485 pullback low and the 158.456 rollover low ends the HL sequence and puts rising support under test
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC could shift the read during NY
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into consolidation · RSI 55 · price 158.538
Higher lows since NY pullback, capped below 158.60.
Monday's leg from the 157.88 London low ground up through NY to the 158.55 ny high as US 10y yields firmed. Early Tokyo printed a 158.597 session high, then eased to a 158.485 asia low. Price is compressing in a 158.48–158.60 band above a higher-lows line, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 158.485, 158.44, 158.32
Resistance: 158.55, 158.597, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.485 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 158.44 ny swing low, then the fib 38.2 near 158.32
Acceptance above the ny high and 158.597 session high reopens the 159.05 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read later in the day
HH/HL chain from London open; Tuesday Asia popped above the prior high and slipped back below it.
Monday's London-NY leg ran from 157.88 to 158.55 on firmer USD and broad yen softness. Early Tuesday Asia pushed to a 158.60 session high above the prior high, but it failed to hold, a false break. Price is now testing the 158.49 asia low, a pullback of less than 23.6% of the leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 158.49, 158.44, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
Break below the 158.44 ny swing low, near the 23.6% fib of the London-NY leg, would end the higher-low chain and expose the 158.27 pivot
A close back above the 158.55 prior high and 158.60 session high would resume the uptrend toward the 159.05 range top
Any official verbal intervention on the approach to 159–160 could change the read
US housing starts and building permits at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher-low chain from 157.88; early-Asia pullback from 158.60 session high.
USD/JPY climbed steadily from the 157.88 London-open low, setting higher lows through NY as firmer USD and rising US yields lifted the pair. Early Asia printed a 158.60 session high just above the 158.55 prior high, then eased to 158.51. RSI(14) is neutral near 47, with price just below EMA20 and above the 158.46 swing low.
Support: 158.46, 158.32
Resistance: 158.55, 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.46 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 158.32
Clearing the 158.55 prior high and the 158.60 session high resumes the upleg toward the 159.05 range top
Approaching 159.05 brings verbal intervention risk into play
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read later in the day
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 57 · price 158.552
HH/HL chain from London low; 158.55 cap broken, retest under way.
USDJPY has climbed in steady higher highs and higher lows from the 157.88 London-open low through NY. Early Asia broke the 158.55 late-NY cap to a 158.60 session high, and price is now back at 158.55 testing that break. Firmer USD on the rise in the 10y Treasury yield kept the grind going toward the 159.05 range top; RSI(14) is at 57 and ATR is about 3.5 pips.
Support: 158.51, 158.456, 158.438
Resistance: 158.597, 159.05
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.51 asia pivot puts the 158.55 breakout back inside the late-NY range
Loss of the 158.46 rollover low and the 158.44 ny swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; the 23.6% level of the london leg fib sits near 158.43
Clearance of the 158.60 session high leaves the 159.05 range top as the next reference, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
A renewed AI-led US equity sell-off could cap USD and stall the uptrend read