HH/HL chain intact; fresh break above 158.55 consolidation top in early Asia.
London cleared the 158.15 Asian range high and NY extended the climb to 158.55. After a late-NY consolidation between the 158.44 swing low and the 158.55 prior high, early Asia has printed a new session high at 158.60 in thin trade, with RSI(14) near 60 and not stretched. Yen softness on the crosses, despite hawkish Ueda comments, explains the steady grind.
Support: 158.55, 158.44, 158.24
Resistance: 158.60, 159.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.55 prior high on an M15 close puts price back inside the 158.44–158.55 consolidation
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the HL chain and brings the 158.24 fib 50% of the London-NY leg into view
Tokyo open liquidity will test whether the 158.60 session high extends or rejects
A move toward the 159.05 range top raises MoF verbal-intervention risk, which could cap the move
HH/HL chain from London-open low, fresh window high.
USD/JPY climbed from the London-open low at 157.88 through the NY session, lifted by the 10y UST yield rising to 5.13% while the yen ignored Ueda's hawkish remarks. Early Asia has just cleared the 158.55 prior cap, printing a window high at 158.58 on thin volume. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the push lacks momentum.
Support: 158.55, 158.44, 158.395
Resistance: 158.581, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.55 prior cap would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 158.44 ny pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.40 ny spike area
Extension toward the 158.94 range cap (UOB 158.94/159.05) is where MoF verbal intervention risk rises
Window high at 158.58 is the near-term area to watch for rejection or break
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into a flat top · RSI 44 · price 158.51
HH/HL chain from the 157.88 London low, now a tight 158.44–158.55 range.
Monday's HH/HL climb from the 157.88 London low stalled at 158.55. That range top capped three tests through late NY and the thin rollover, while the 158.44 range floor held. Yen softness despite Ueda's hawkish remarks drove the grind, and early Asia is opening inside the box with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 158.44, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.55 range top resumes the HH chain, with the 159.00 round number next
Failure to hold the 158.44 range floor breaks the HL sequence and exposes the 158.27 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London leg
Tue US housing starts/permits and late-Tue Japan trade balance are the next scheduled catalysts; nothing in the next 8h
HH/HL chain from London, now a tight 158.44–158.55 box.
Asian range of 157.70–158.15 broke higher early in London after a dip to 157.88. The pair then ground up in higher lows through NY on firmer US yields and French bond pressure, shrugging off Ueda's hawkish remarks. Since mid-NY, price has stalled under the 158.55 day high, with the 158.44 NY swing low and the 158.46 rollover low holding. RSI(14) is near 49 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 158.46, 158.44, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.55 day high resumes the HH chain toward the 159.05 range cap
Failure to hold the 158.44 ny swing low breaks the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 158.27 higher low puts the fib 38.2% of the London–NY leg in play
Thin Asia session liquidity after rollover can distort the 158.46 rollover low
22:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 56 · price 158.543
HH/HL chain from Asian low, now tight 158.44–158.55 range.
Monday's grind from the 157.70 Asian low ran through London and NY on a 7bp rise in the US 10y to 5.13% and a soft yen that shrugged off Ueda's hawkish remarks. The rally topped at the 158.55 day high late in NY. Since then price has compressed between the 158.44 range low and the high through the rollover, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 3 pips.
Support: 158.44, 158.35, 158.10
Resistance: 158.55, 159.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.55 day high resumes the HH chain toward the 159.00 round number
Break below the 158.44 range low exposes the fib 23.6 retracement at 158.35, then the 158.10 swing low
Tokyo open liquidity may end the compression; rollover-hour ranges are thin
HH/HL chain from London low, now tight range at session high.
The London low at 157.877 held, and NY extended the London-NY leg to a 158.55 session high as US 10y yields rose about 7bp to 5.13%. Since mid-NY, price has compressed in a roughly 10-pip band above the 158.438 swing low. A thin post-rollover dip to the 158.456 late low was fully reversed, with RSI(14) near 58 in early Asia trade.
Support: 158.456, 158.438, 158.146
Resistance: 158.55, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.55 session high opens the path toward the 158.94 range cap, where intervention sensitivity builds
Failure to hold the 158.456 late low and 158.438 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain from London
A deeper pullback toward the 38.2% of the London-NY leg (~158.29) or the 158.146 Asian high would signal the rally unwinding
Thin Asia liquidity and ATR near 3 pips favour compression until Tokyo flow picks up
22:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 46 · price 158.48
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; flat 158.44–158.55 shelf below the session high.
London broke the 157.70–158.15 Asian range higher and built a higher-low chain to a 158.55 session high. JPY lagged on fiscal worries and a fully priced December BoJ hike, while US 10y yields near 5.13% added support. Late NY flattened into a tight shelf above the 158.44 NY swing low and slipped below the rising trendline from the London low. RSI(14) sits near 46 and ATR is only about 3 pips into the thin rollover.
Support: 158.44, 158.27, 158.13
Resistance: 158.55, 158.60
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.44 NY swing low breaks the shelf and exposes the 158.27 higher low and the fib 38.2 near 158.29
A close above the 158.55 session high resumes the HH sequence toward the 158.60 round number
A deeper pullback to the fib 61.8 at 158.13 would put the intraday HL structure in question
Asia session liquidity is thin and no scheduled data is due in the next 8h; MoF or JGB headlines remain the main risk to this read
HH/HL chain since London open, flat consolidation under session high.
London broke above the asian high at 158.15 after a dip to 157.88. Price then built higher lows into the 158.55 session high during NY, with JPY the weakest major on fiscal worries and the US 10y yield up near 5.13%. Since the NY close, price has flat-lined in a 158.47–158.55 band as ATR compresses, and the rollover dip held above the 158.44 swing low.
Support: 158.44, 158.27, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55
What it said to watch
A close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.27 pullback low near the 38.2% level of the London rally fib
A close above the 158.55 session high would extend the London rally structure
Any MoF verbal intervention or Takaichi budget/JGB headlines in the Asia session could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling after NY · RSI 56 · price 158.503
Higher lows from London low, flat band below session high.
USD/JPY built a higher-low chain off the 157.88 London-open dip. It broke the 158.15 Asian high and ran to a 158.55 session high in NY as JPY trailed the majors on fiscal worries and firmer US yields. After the NY close the pair has flattened into a 158.44–158.55 band through rollover, with RSI(14) near 56 and price dipping just under EMA20.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.44 NY swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.38 swing low.
A close above the 158.55 session high resumes the leg, with the 159.05 range cap the next reference.
A deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib of the London rally near 158.29 would test the rally's structure; the 158.15 Asian high sits below that.
Thin post-rollover liquidity into the Asia session can produce outsized wicks relative to the ~3 pip ATR.
HH/HL chain from London open, compressing below day high.
London cleared the Asian range high near 158.15, and NY extended a higher-low chain to a 158.55 day high as JPY lagged and US 10y yields rose to 5.13%. Price has compressed between the 158.44 swing low and the day high since mid-NY and is now dipping just under EMA20 into the rollover. RSI is neutral near 54 and ATR is down to about 3 pips.
Support: 158.438, 158.382, 158.293
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.438 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 158.382 higher low, then the fib 38.2 near 158.29
Clearance of the 158.55 day high reopens the move toward the 159.05 range cap cited in the digest
Thin rollover and early Asia liquidity can distort the session low; no scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 55 · price 158.521
HH/HL chain from London open, now compressing under the session high.
The London leg from the 157.88 open low cleared the 158.15 asian high early and stepped up through NY as JPY stayed the weakest major on firmer US yields. Late NY is compressing in an 11-pip box between the 158.44 swing low and the 158.55 session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55, ATR has shrunk to about 3.6 pips, and price is sitting on ema20.
Support: 158.44, 158.27, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.55 session high extends the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 158.44 swing low and the rising trendline turns the read to a range, with the 158.27 london high next
Thin Asia session liquidity after the NY close; Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC US housing data could shift this read
20:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled late NY · RSI 56 · price 158.533
Higher highs and higher lows from the Asian low, compressing under the session high.
With the yen the weakest major and US 10y yields higher, USD/JPY built a higher-low chain from the 157.70 Asian low through London and NY to a 158.55 session high. Late NY trade has compressed into a 10-pip band above the 158.44 swing low. RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and ATR is near 4 pips, so the trend has paused rather than turned.
Support: 158.438, 158.382, 158.10
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 158.38 NY pullback.
Loss of the rising trendline and the 158.10 London low would negate the intraday uptrend.
Acceptance above the 158.55 session high opens the 159.05 range cap, where intervention sensitivity builds.
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, and US yield moves, could shift this read during the next session.
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 58 · price 158.542
Higher-low chain from the London low; tight 158.44–158.55 consolidation since 16:00 UTC.
London dipped to 157.88, then broke the Asian high at 158.15. NY extended the higher-low chain to a session high at 158.55 as US 10y yields rose and JPY lagged, with little reaction to the NAHB miss. Since 16:00 UTC price has compressed into a 158.44–158.55 band, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 3 pips, and is now drifting onto the rising trendline from the London low.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 158.44 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, with the 158.38 swing low next
A close above the 158.55 session high resumes the London-NY leg, with the 159.05 range cap as the next reference
Loss of 158.38 exposes the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY leg near 158.29, then the Asian high at 158.15
Tuesday's US housing starts and permits (12:30 UTC) and moves in US 10y yields are the next drivers that could shift this read
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 64 · price 158.546
HH/HL chain from Asian low, compressing under day high.
Steady higher-low climb from the 157.70 Asian low. London cleared the asian high at 158.15 after a dip to 157.88 held, and NY extended to a day high at 158.55 as US yields firmed. Late NY is compressing just under that high on 3-4 pip bars, with the 158.44 swing low and rising support intact.
Support: 158.44, 158.27, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the late-NY higher-low sequence
Loss of rising support exposes the 158.27 pullback low and the 50% retrace of the asia-ny leg near 158.12
A hold above the day high at 158.55 leaves the 159.05 range top as the next reference, where MoF intervention chatter tends to build
Thin Asia session liquidity can distort the read; US housing data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
HH/HL chain since London open, compressing under day high late NY.
London broke the Asian range high near 158.15 after a dip to 157.88, and NY extended the higher-high/higher-low chain to a 158.55 day high as US 10-year yields rose about 7bp to 5.13%. Late NY is compressing between the 158.44 swing low and the day high, with RSI(14) at 61 and price holding above the London trendline.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain and exposes the 158.38 pullback low, then the 158.27 higher low near the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 158.55 day high opens the path toward the 159.05 range top
Break of the London trendline would end the session uptrend read
Asia session liquidity is thin; any MoF verbal intervention on the drift higher could abruptly shift this read
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near the highs · RSI 59 · price 158.534
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; late-NY consolidation just under the session high.
USD/JPY has climbed steadily from the 157.70 Asian low. London broke the Asian high at 158.15, and NY printed a session high at 158.55 as the US 10-year yield rose about 7bp. Late NY is compressing in a 158.44–158.55 band, with the pullback low holding, RSI(14) at a neutral 59 and the rising lows trendline intact underneath.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.55 session high extends the HH chain and opens the 159.05 range top
Break below the 158.44 pullback low and the rising lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence, exposing the 158.38 swing low
A slide back to the 158.15 Asian high would retrace about half of the day's rally
MoF verbal intervention headlines as price grinds higher could abruptly reverse the move
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near session high · RSI 57 · price 158.532
Higher-low chain from London open; late-NY consolidation under the high.
London broke the Asian high at 158.146 after a dip to 157.877 held, and NY extended the higher-low chain to a session high at 158.547 as US yields firmed and hawkish Ueda comments failed to lift the yen. The late-NY pullback held the 158.44 swing low and price is back near the high, RSI(14) neutral at 57 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 158.44, 158.27, 158.146
Resistance: 158.547, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline; london high at 158.27 then near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg
Close above the 158.547 session high reopens the path toward the 159.05 range top
MoF verbal intervention headlines as price drifts higher could abruptly shift this read
Asian high at 158.146 is the deeper reference; a return below it would unwind the whole London-NY leg
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 63 · price 158.533
Higher-low chain since London open; Asian range high broken.
USD/JPY has built higher lows since the 157.88 London-open dip, clearing the Asian high at 158.15 and grinding to a 158.55 session high in NY as US yields firmed. The late-NY pullback held the 158.44 swing low after London close. Price is now consolidating just under the high with RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.15
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the chain, exposing the 158.38 pivot
A sustained push through the 158.55 session high brings the 159.05 range top into view, where MoF intervention sensitivity rises
Pullback holding the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg (~158.29) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Return below the 158.15 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Tuesday's US housing data and Japan trade balance
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 60 · price 158.507
HH/HL chain from London low; tight band under session high.
USD/JPY climbed from the 157.88 London-open dip through the Asian range high at 158.15, then built higher highs and higher lows in NY up to the 158.547 session high as firmer US yields outweighed hawkish Ueda remarks. Late NY is compressing between the 158.44 swing low and the session high, holding above the rising trendline from the retest of the london high at 158.27; RSI(14) has cooled to about 60.
Support: 158.438, 158.382, 158.27
Resistance: 158.547
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain, exposing the 158.38 prior low
Close above the 158.547 session high extends the London-NY leg; 38.2% retracement of that leg sits near 158.29, just above the london high
Any MoF verbal intervention headlines as the pair drifts higher could abruptly reverse the read into the Asia session
18:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 59 · price 158.503
Higher-low chain from Asian low, tight consolidation under session high.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.70 Asian low through London and NY to a 158.55 session high. The yen underperformed despite Ueda's hawkish remarks, and London-open and midday dips held at successively higher lows (158.27, then the 158.38 swing low). Late NY has compressed into a 158.44–158.55 band, with price resting on the rising trendline from the London-open low and RSI(14) cooled to ~59.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 159.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 ny low breaks the late-NY consolidation and the rising trendline, exposing the 158.38 swing low
Loss of the 158.27 higher low would end the intraday HL chain and open the 38.2% retracement near 158.22
Clearance of the 158.55 session high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 159.05 range top
Any MoF verbal intervention headlines as the pair drifts higher could abruptly shift this read
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling in late NY · RSI 58 · price 158.491
Higher highs and higher lows since the London-open dip; shallow pullback from the NY session high.
USDJPY built a steady higher-high, higher-low chain from the 157.88 London-open dip. It cleared the Asian range high near 158.15 and set a session high at 158.55 in NY, as firmer US yields outweighed hawkish Ueda remarks. The late-NY pullback held the 158.44 ny pullback low above rising support, and price sits at 158.49 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 158.44, 158.38, 158.27
Resistance: 158.547, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.44 ny pullback low breaks the late-session higher low and exposes the 158.38 swing low
Failure to hold rising support and the 158.27 prior high would mark a deeper retracement of the London-NY leg toward its 38.2% level
Clearance of the 158.55 session high exposes the 158.94 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
Thin late-NY into Asia session trade; shifts in US yields or AI-led equity sentiment remain the main swing factor for USD tone
HH/HL chain since London open; shallow pullback after London close.
London dipped to 157.88, then broke the Asian range high near 158.15. A higher-low chain carried price to a 158.547 session high in NY as US yields bounced. After London close the pair has eased into the rising trendline near the 158.448 swing low, with RSI(14) cooling to about 56 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 158.448, 158.382, 158.29
Resistance: 158.547, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.448 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the intraday HL chain, exposing the 158.382 NY low
A deeper pullback toward the fib 38.2 at 158.29 would retrace a large share of the London-NY leg
Clearance of the 158.547 session high puts the 158.94 range top in view, where MoF rhetoric has been sensitive
Late NY hours into the Asia session: thin conditions, and ATR near 5 pips points to compressed ranges
HH/HL chain from London low, stalling under session high.
London broke above the 157.70–158.15 Asian range and NY extended the higher-low chain (158.28 london high retested at 13:00 UTC, swing low 158.38) to a 158.55 session high, helped by the ~7bp bounce in 10y yields and persistent JPY softness despite Ueda's hawkish tone. Late in the NY session price is compressing just under that session high with the ny low at 158.49 holding; RSI(14) has cooled to ~59 and ATR has contracted to about 5 pips.
Support: 158.49, 158.38, 158.28
Resistance: 158.55, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.49 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 158.38 swing low
Close above the 158.55 session high resumes the leg toward the 158.94 range top, where MoF/intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
Loss of the 158.28 london high (38.2% of the london leg) would mean a deeper retracement of the day's move
Asia session open in thin post-NY liquidity; US Housing Starts Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD input
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian range broken higher.
London open lifted the pair off the 157.88 Asian low and through the 158.15 Asian high. Higher lows then stacked into a 158.55 session high in NY hours, with the 10y yield rebound to 5.13% offsetting Ueda's hawkish remarks. Late-NY bars are compressing at 158.50–158.55 with RSI(14) near 66, so upside follow-through is fading above the 158.49 swing low.
Support: 158.486, 158.382, 158.291
Resistance: 158.547, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.49 swing low prints the first lower-low of the London-NY leg
Failure to hold the 158.38 NY pivot exposes the 38.2% fib at 158.29
Clearance of the 158.55 session high opens the path toward the 158.94–159.05 range top, where intervention sensitivity rises
Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; Asian range broken above.
London dipped to 157.88 before breaking the 157.70–158.15 Asian range high. NY then extended the London-NY leg through the 158.27 london high to a 158.55 session high, with 10y yields back at 5.13% and yen soft despite Ueda. Late-NY bars are compressing just under the high with RSI(14) near 66, not stretched.
Support: 158.39, 158.27, 158.10
Resistance: 158.547, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.39 pullback low breaks the HL trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 158.27 london high (38.2% of the London-NY leg) shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 158.10 swing low
Clearance of the 158.55 session high leaves the digest's 158.94 range top as the next reference
No scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h; Tue 12:30 UTC Housing Starts is the next USD catalyst
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break, now pressing session high.
USD/JPY cleared the 157.70–158.15 Asian range during London. Higher lows have stacked at 158.10, 158.27 and 158.38 into a session high at 158.55 after London close, with firmer US yields keeping the yen soft despite Ueda's hawkish remarks. Bar ranges have compressed to about 5–6 pips and RSI(14) has eased to 65 as price rides the rising trendline, with the old 158.45 prior high just below.
Support: 158.45, 158.38, 158.27
Resistance: 158.55, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 158.50 would mark momentum loss; 158.45 prior high then in focus
Failure to hold the 158.38 swing low (23.6% fib) breaks the HL chain and exposes the 158.27 london high near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 158.55 session high opens the path toward the 158.94 range top, where intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, steady pace · RSI 68 · price 158.514
HH/HL chain from London open, Asian range broken above.
USD/JPY has carved higher highs and higher lows since the London-open low at 157.88. It cleared the Asian high at 158.15 and printed a 158.54 session high in NY hours as US yields firmed and the yen stayed soft despite Ueda's hawkish tone. RSI(14) near 68 is warm but not stretched, and the rising trendline sits just under price.
Support: 158.45, 158.38, 158.15
Resistance: 158.54, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 158.38 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Prior high at 158.45 is first support; failure there turns the session into range trade
Acceptance above the 158.54 session high opens the 158.94 range top, where MoF intervention rhetoric becomes a factor
A slide back under the 158.15 Asian high would negate the London breakout
HH/HL chain since London open, above the Asian range.
USD/JPY cleared the Asian high near 158.15 after the early-London dip to 157.88. It has since built a clean higher-low chain (158.10, 158.27, 158.40) into a 158.54 session high late in NY hours, helped by firmer US yields with the 10y back at 5.13%. RSI(14) sits near 66, warm but not stretched, and the NAHB miss drew little reaction.
Support: 158.40, 158.27, 158.15
Resistance: 158.54, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.40 swing low breaks the intraday rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 158.27 higher low (near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg) shifts the read to a deeper pullback toward the Asian high at 158.15
Range top at 158.94 is the next reference above the session high; MoF/intervention rhetoric typically intensifies into 159
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US Housing Starts Tue 12:30 UTC is the next event risk
Asian range broken higher at London; NY open extended above Friday's high to a fresh session high.
London dipped to 157.88, then broke the 157.70–158.15 Asian range higher. The NY open cleared Friday's 158.34 high, leaving higher lows at the 158.27 ny low and the 158.38 swing low. Price is pressing the 158.51 session high after London close with RSI(14) near 65, not stretched, as the yen stays soft on fiscal concerns despite a softer USD tone.
Support: 158.38, 158.27, 158.10
Resistance: 158.51, 158.94
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.38 swing low breaks the latest higher-low step
M15 close below the 158.27 ny low (38.2% of the London leg) undercuts the NY breakout
Loss of the 158.10 london hl and the rising trendline turns intraday structure neutral
Close above the 158.51 session high leaves the 158.94 range top as the next reference
Thinner liquidity after London close; next scheduled risk is Tue 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts
Asian range broken higher; higher lows at 157.88, 158.10, 158.27 and 158.38.
London cleared the Asian range high near 158.15, and NY has extended a clean HH/HL chain to a session high at 158.47, with the yen underperforming despite Ueda's comments. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched. The swing low at 158.38 and Friday's prior high at 158.34 sit just below and are holding the trendline structure.
Support: 158.38, 158.335, 158.27
Resistance: 158.47, 158.50, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.38 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 158.34 prior high in play
Loss of the 158.27 NY pullback low would sit below the rising trendline and the 38.2% of the London-NY leg
Acceptance above the 158.50 round number opens the 158.94 range top cited in the JPY digest
Thinner liquidity after London close may slow the leg into the 158.47 session high
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 63 · price 158.429
Higher-low chain from the London open low; tight cap at 158.45.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.146 after a 157.88 dip at the open, and NY pushed through the Friday high at 158.335 as the yen stayed soft on fiscal concerns despite Ueda's hawkish tone. Price has been capped at the 158.448 session high for five bars into London close, with RSI(14) easing to about 63 while the London trendline and the 158.382 swing low hold underneath.
Support: 158.382, 158.335, 158.268
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.382 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the Friday high at 158.335 back in play as a retest
Loss of the 158.268 higher low exposes the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally near 158.23 and the London trendline
Clean break of the 158.448 session high opens the 158.50 round number
AI-equity direction and front-end US yields remain the main USD driver in the absence of US data in the next 8h
15:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact into NY · RSI 65 · price 158.439
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain, consolidating under session high.
London broke the 157.70–158.15 Asian range higher. NY has stacked higher lows at 158.10, 158.268 and 158.382 to a 158.448 session high, clearing Friday's 158.335 prior high as hawkish Ueda remarks failed to support the yen. RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched, and bars are compressing just under the high.
Support: 158.382, 158.335, 158.268
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.382 swing low breaks the latest higher low. Loss of the 158.268 higher low turns structure neutral.
Acceptance back below the 158.335 prior high would mark the Friday-high break as a false break.
Holding above the 158.448 session high and the 158.50 round number opens the 158.94 range top, where intervention sensitivity rises.
Fib of the London-NY leg (157.877–158.448): 61.8% at ~158.10 lines up with the late-London swing low.
No scheduled US or JP data in the next 8h. US yields and tech equity direction drive flow into the NY close.
HH/HL chain off Asian low; Friday high taken out in NY.
Monday has built a HH/HL chain off the 157.698 Asian low. London cleared the Asian range top near 158.15, and NY pushed through the 158.335 Friday high to a 158.448 session high as the yen kept underperforming despite Ueda's hawkish tone. The 14:00 UTC NAHB miss (29 vs 32) did not dent the move; the 158.382 pullback low is holding, RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR is around 7 pips.
Support: 158.382, 158.335, 158.268
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50
What it said to watch
Break and hold above the 158.448 session high brings the 158.50 round number into play
M15 close back below the 158.335 Friday high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.268 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the rising support from the London low (~158.30) at risk
Deeper pullback would test the 38.2% of the Asian low to session high fib near 158.16
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through London and NY · RSI 66 · price 158.413
HH/HL chain above the Asian range; fresh session high at 158.448.
London defended a 157.877 higher low, then cleared the 158.146 asian high and Friday's 158.335 fri high. The early NY session extended the HH/HL chain to a 158.448 session high as the yen stayed soft despite Ueda's hawkish tone. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched, and the London-NY leg's 61.8% retracement sits at the 158.10 pivot.
Support: 158.335, 158.268, 158.146
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50, 158.94
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 158.268 swing low breaks the NY higher-low sequence
An M15 close back below the 158.146 asian high returns price to the old 158.00–158.25 pin
A close above the 158.448 session high puts the 158.50 round number in play
The 158.94/159.05 range top is roughly 50 pips away; MoF rhetoric toward 159 could shift the read
A break of the rising trendline from the London low exposes the 158.10 pivot
No scheduled US or JP data before Tue's 12:15 UTC US housing and ADP releases
Higher lows since Asia low 157.70; Friday high broken.
London broke the 157.70–158.15 Asian range higher, and the NY session cleared the 158.335 Friday high to set a 158.448 session high. Each dip has held a higher low (157.88, 158.10 london low, 158.27 swing low) as hawkish Ueda comments failed to lift JPY and firmer French yields supported USD. RSI(14) is near 71, hot but not stretched.
Support: 158.335, 158.268, 158.10
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.335 Friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 158.268 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain; the 158.10 london low is the next shelf
Session high 158.448 and the 158.50 psych level are the immediate areas to watch for rejection or extension
Loss of the higher-low trendline from the London lows would end the intraday HL sequence
A deeper pullback to the 61.8% retrace of the Asia low–session high leg (~157.99) negates the day's advance
Intervention rhetoric as price approaches the 158.94 range top could materially shift this read
London cleared the 158.15 Asian range high, and the first hour of NY pushed through the Friday high at 158.34 to a 158.45 session high, with the yen soft on fiscal worries. The HH/HL chain holds above the 158.27 swing low and the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 158.335, 158.268, 158.10
Resistance: 158.448, 158.50, 158.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Friday high at 158.34 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 158.27 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; the London low at 158.10 lines up with the 61.8% fib
158.50 round number is the next overhead marker; the 158.94 recent high is where intervention-risk headlines tend to surface
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early NY · RSI 63 · price 158.375
HH/HL chain since London open, Asian range high cleared.
London cleared the Asian range high at 158.146 and Friday's prior high at 158.335, printing higher lows at 158.10 and 158.268 into a 158.415 session high as the yen stays soft on fiscal worries. Early NY is holding just under that high. RSI(14) sits near 63, not stretched, and the rising trendline from the London low is intact.
Support: 158.335, 158.268, 158.10
Resistance: 158.415, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.335 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.268 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Close above the 158.415 session high opens the 158.50 round number
50% retrace of the London leg near 158.15 would mark a deeper pullback
Japanese official rhetoric on FX or US AI-equity swings could shift this read; no scheduled data in the next 8h
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 64 · price 158.372
Higher-low chain since London open, breakout above Friday high.
Higher lows since the London open low at 157.88 carried price through the Friday high at 158.335 in the NY session, and a dip to the 158.27 swing low has been bought back. Supply is capping at the 158.39 session high on two tests, with RSI(14) near 64. Broad yen softness on fiscal worries is the backdrop, and the higher low at 158.10 anchors the rising trendline.
Support: 158.335, 158.27, 158.10
Resistance: 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.39 session high opens the path to the 158.50 round number
Failure to hold the 158.27 swing low and the Friday high at 158.335 turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.10 higher low ends the higher-low chain; 38.2% of the London-NY leg sits near 158.20
Japanese official intervention rhetoric as price approaches 159 could abruptly shift this read
US tech-equity swings and front-end yields remain the main USD driver; no scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h
Higher lows from 157.88 London low; NY pullback below Friday high.
USDJPY cleared the 158.146 Asian range high in London, holding higher lows from the 157.877 London low to the 158.10 swing low as yen softness on fiscal worries persisted. The first-hour-of-NY push above the 158.335 Friday high stalled at 158.395 (session high), and closes have slipped back below it. RSI(14) is cooling to ~57.
Support: 158.197, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.335, 158.395
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 158.335 Friday high would confirm the break; repeated closes below it frame 158.395 as a rejection
Fib 38.2 at ~158.20 is the first pullback marker, sitting just under the London HL line
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
US tech equities and front-end yields remain the main USD driver into the NY session
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after new session high · RSI 59 · price 158.311
Higher lows since London open; break above Asian range high and Friday high, now back below Friday high.
London cleared the 158.146 Asian range high off a 157.877 london low and built higher lows, with the 12:30 UTC push printing a 158.395 session high through the 158.335 Friday high. Price has since slipped back just under the Friday high ahead of NY open, RSI(14) cooled to ~59. The yen stayed soft on fiscal worries despite hawkish Ueda remarks.
Support: 158.20, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.335, 158.395, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below 158.20 (38.2% fib of the London leg) puts the Friday high breakout at risk; 158.10 swing low is the latest higher low
Close above 158.395 session high exposes the 158.50 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 157.877 london low ends the higher-low chain
No scheduled data in the next 8h; NY-session moves in US tech equities and front-end yields are the main swing factor
HH/HL chain since London open; Friday high broken, now under retest.
London cleared the 157.70–158.15 Asian range and built higher lows from 157.88. Early in the NY session price pushed through the 158.335 Friday high to a 158.395 session high and is now retesting the break with RSI(14) near 66. Persistent yen softness on fiscal worries is driving the grind, and the move stays inside the broader 157.50–159.05 range.
Support: 158.335, 158.277, 158.10
Resistance: 158.395, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.335 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break, with the 158.277 London high next below
Loss of the 158.10 swing low breaks the London uptrend line and the HH/HL chain
A break above the 158.395 session high exposes the 158.50 round number
No scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h; US AI/tech equity swings and front-end yields remain the main USD driver through NY hours
HH/HL chain from London low; breakout above Friday high now under retest.
Broad yen weakness carried USD/JPY through the 158.146 Asian range high after London open. A HH/HL chain from the 157.877 London low then pushed price through the 158.335 Friday high to a 158.395 session high in the first hour of NY. The current bar is retesting the Friday high, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 158.335, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.395, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.335 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 158.10 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline, putting the 157.877 London low back in play
M15 close above the 158.395 session high opens the path to the 158.50 round number
No scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h. Japanese official FX rhetoric remains the main headline risk as price grinds toward 159
Higher lows since London open, pressing the session high.
Broad yen weakness lifted USDJPY through the asian high at 158.15 after a London-open dip to the 157.88 london low. A higher swing low at 158.10 and a rising trendline now have price pressing the 158.28 session high in early NY, with RSI(14) at 62 and the friday high at 158.34 directly overhead.
Support: 158.15, 158.10, 157.88
Resistance: 158.28, 158.34, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the friday high at 158.34 extends the higher-high chain toward the 158.50 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 158.10 swing low puts price back near the asian high at 158.15
Loss of the 157.88 london low negates the London breakout above the Asian range
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; Japanese intervention-warning headlines are the main event risk
Higher-low chain from Asian low, London broke Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.146 and set a session high at 158.277. The 11:15 UTC dip held the 158.10 swing low, keeping the higher-low sequence from the 157.877 London low intact. Price is retesting the session high into the NY open with RSI(14) near 62, helped by modest USD support from higher French yields.
Support: 158.146, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.277 session high exposes the 158.335 Friday high
Failure to hold the 158.10 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Drop back below the 157.877 London low would return price to the lower half of the Asian range
No scheduled US or JP data in the next 8h; US AI-equity tone during NY hours is the main swing factor
Asian range broken higher; HL chain 157.70 → 157.88 → 158.10.
After a London open dip to the 157.88 London low, the London leg cleared the 158.15 Asian high and printed a 158.28 session high. The late-London pullback held 158.10 for another higher-low, and price sits just under the session high into the NY open with RSI(14) near 61. The yen is still not responding to Ueda's hawkish remarks, with Friday's 158.34 prior high next overhead.
Support: 158.146, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.34 prior high clears Friday's NY peak, with the 158.50 round number above
Rejection at the 158.28 session high, followed by a close back below the 158.15 Asian high, would turn the breakout into a range
Loss of the 158.10 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.88 London low
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; US equity and yield tone during NY hours is the main driver
London broke above the Asian range high; pullback held at 158.10.
London broke above the 157.698–158.146 Asian range from a 157.877 London low and printed a 158.277 session high. The pullback to a 158.10 swing low held at the 38.2–50% zone of the London leg and above the rising trendline, as the yen stayed soft on French-yield USD support. The Friday high at 158.335 sits overhead, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 158.146, 158.10, 157.877
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.10 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Holding above the asian high at 158.146 keeps the breakout retest intact
Clearance of the 158.277 session high exposes the friday high at 158.335
Loss of the london low at 157.877 returns price into the Asian range
US AI-equity direction at the NY open is the main USD driver and could shift this read
London break of Asian high now being retested from below.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.146 for a session high of 158.277 but has slipped back to 158.13. That puts price on the 38.2% retrace of the London leg, below EMA20 and RSI(14) back near 49. Higher lows from the 157.698 Asian low, which matches Friday's 157.69 trough, remain intact, with the yen still soft as hawkish BoJ talk fails to lift it.
Support: 158.10, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.146, 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the asian high at 158.146 into the NY open turns the London break into a false break
Loss of the minor low at 158.10 exposes the london low at 157.877 and the rising trendline
Close above the session high at 158.277 brings the friday high at 158.335 into view
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; AI-equity swings and USD tone remain the intraday driver
Asian range high broken in London, now retesting; higher low at 157.877 intact.
London cleared the Asian high at 158.15 and set a session high at 158.28 by 10:15 UTC, short of the Friday high at 158.34. Price has eased back to the breakout level late in London, with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR around 6 pips, as Ueda's 'quite close to 2%' remarks again failed to produce a yen bid.
Support: 158.15, 157.877, 157.70
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
Holding 158.15 (asian high) keeps the London breakout and retest valid. Sustained trade back inside the range neutralises it.
An M15 close below the 157.877 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 157.70 asia low back in play.
A rising trendline from the asia low and london low sits near 157.99. A break of it would end the intraday higher-low structure.
A push through the 158.28 session high toward the 158.34 friday high tests the top of the 24h range.
US AI-equity tone into the NY open is the main USD driver flagged, with no scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8 hours.
11:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 61 · price 158.192
Higher lows since London open; tight consolidation below 158.277 after Asian range break.
London dipped to 157.877 at the open, then cleared the Asian high at 158.146 and printed a session high at 158.277, short of Friday's high at 158.335. Late London is now holding pullback lows near 158.17 above a rising trendline from the Asian low. JPY stays soft, with hawkish BoJ talk drawing no yen bid.
Support: 158.173, 158.146, 157.877
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian high at 158.146 puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Failure at the session high 158.277 into the London-NY transition sets up a double-test; a break opens the friday high at 158.335
Loss of the 61.8% fib of the London leg near 158.03 and the rising trendline from the Asian low brings the london low 157.877 back into play
US AI-equity tone during NY hours remains the main USD driver with no scheduled data in the next few hours
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 158.214
Higher lows above Asian range, London breakout.
London cleared the 158.146 Asian high after a dip to the 157.877 London low at the open. That dip extended the higher-low chain off the 157.698 Asian low to a 158.277 session high. Ueda's comments drew no yen bid, and price is drifting mid-London just under the 158.335 Friday high, with RSI(14) around 66 and not stretched.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.335 friday high clears Friday's 157.69–158.34 range
Close back below 158.146 asian high returns price inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Break of 157.877 london low breaks the higher-low line and the intraday uptrend read
No US or Japan data in the next 8h; Japan trade balance Tue 23:50 UTC is the next scheduled yen risk
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London open · RSI 71 · price 158.247
Asian range high broken, HH/HL chain into Friday's high.
London opened with a dip to the london low at 157.877, a higher low above the 157.698 Asian low. A steady higher-high/higher-low climb then broke the asian high at 158.146 and printed a session high at 158.277, mid-London, with the friday high at 158.335 next overhead. RSI(14) near 71 is warm but not stretched, and per the digest yen reaction to Ueda's hawkish remarks stayed muted.
Support: 158.146, 157.877
Resistance: 158.277, 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 158.146 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the london low at 157.877 breaks the higher-low chain
Clearance of the friday high at 158.335 opens the 158.50 round number, top of the 157.80–158.50 band cited in the yen digest
Repeated rejection at the session high at 158.277 would point to stalling momentum into the NY open
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, steady HH/HL through London · RSI 66 · price 158.237
Asian range broken higher, pressing Friday high.
London lifted USDJPY off the 157.877 london low and cleared the 158.146 asian high. A tight HH/HL chain along a rising trendline now sits just under Friday high 158.335, the top of the 157.67–158.33 range, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched. The gains came despite a soft USD tone in the digest, and ATR near 7 pips keeps the grind narrow.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.335 friday high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 158.50 round number
Loss of the rising trendline near 158.22, then back inside the asian high at 158.146, would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold 157.877 london low negates the session HH/HL chain and exposes the 157.698 asian low
MoF or US Treasury verbal intervention, or further Ueda remarks, could shift the read as price pushes higher
London higher-high/higher-low chain above the Asian range.
London dipped to 157.877 at the open, then broke the 157.70–158.146 Asian range high and stepped up to a 158.217 session high mid-session, still below the 158.335 Friday high. Ueda's hawkish remarks have not lifted the yen. Bar ranges have narrowed into NY, RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 7 pips, with the 157.70 double low from Friday and Asia anchoring the window.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.70
Resistance: 158.217, 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.146 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 157.877 London low or the rising trendline support breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 158.335 Friday high opens the 158.50 round number
No tier-1 USD or JPY data in the next 8h; NY open flows and AI-equity sentiment are the near-term swing factors
Higher lows from the Asian low; London broke above the Asian range high.
London open dipped to the 157.877 london low, then broke the 158.146 asian high to a 158.217 session high, keeping the higher-low chain from the 157.698 asian low intact. Momentum is flattening below the 158.335 friday high (RSI 62, ATR ~8 pips), with the pair pinned near 158.00 as Ueda's hawkish remarks draw little yen reaction.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.217, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.146 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Clearance of the 158.335 friday high would extend the higher-high sequence
Break of the 157.877 london low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HL structure
No scheduled USD or JPY data in the next 8h; US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
HH/HL chain from 157.698; Asian high broken in London.
The Monday rally from the 157.698 monday low built a higher-low chain. The London open dip held at 157.877, above the Asian range, before price cleared the 158.146 asian high to a 158.197 session high. RSI(14) at 59 is not stretched, and the pair holds just above the 158.00 pin the digest flags despite hawkish Ueda remarks.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.197, 158.335
What it said to watch
Holding 158.146 asian high on any dip keeps the breakout of the Asian range intact
M15 close above 158.335 friday high extends the HH chain
Break below 157.877 london low and the higher-low line invalidates the intraday uptrend read
No scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h; moves likely tied to US yields and AI-equity tone
London break above Asian range, holding just over the old range top.
London reversed an early dip to the 157.88 london low and pushed through the Asian high at 158.15, printing a session high at 158.20. Price is now coiling within about 5 pips just above the old range top, RSI(14) neutral near 57. JPY flows are flat on a quiet calendar, so the pair is holding near the 158.00 handle.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.197, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.15 asian high turns the breakout into a false break inside the Asian range
Clearance of the 158.20 session high opens the path to the 158.34 friday high
Break of the rising lows trendline and a loss of the 157.88 london low exposes the 157.70 asian low
Fib 50–61.8% of the london leg (158.04–158.00) is the first pullback zone on a failed hold
No scheduled releases in the next 8h. Japan trade balance (Tue 23:50 UTC) and US housing data are the next event risk.
London broke above the Asian high; higher low at 157.877 above the 157.698 Asian low.
A pre-London dip held a higher low at 157.877, then London pushed through the Asian high at 158.146 to a session high of 158.185. Price is still below the friday high at 158.335. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR(14) about 8 pips, so the advance is steady rather than impulsive, consistent with the digest's read of USD/JPY pinned near 158.00 under intervention-risk talk.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 158.146 would turn the London breakout into a false break
A break of the london low at 157.877 ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the asian low at 157.698
Friday high at 158.335 is the next structural test; the 158.50 psych level caps the quoted 157.80–158.50 band
No scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h; MoF or US Treasury rhetoric on yen levels is the headline risk
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 61 · price 158.183
London break above Asian range high, holding near 158.19 session high.
London dipped to 157.877 at the open, a higher low above the 157.70 double low from Friday and Asia. It then broke the Asian high at 158.15 to a session high of 158.19. RSI(14) near 60 shows no stretch; the friday high at 158.34 is the next cap, with JPY pinned between BoJ hike pricing and intervention risk.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.185, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.15 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the 157.88 london low ends the higher-low line from 157.70
Close above the 158.34 friday high clears the prior-session range top
MoF or US Treasury yen rhetoric could abruptly reverse any extension higher
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 56 · price 158.142
Higher lows from the Asian low; Asian range broken higher, now under retest.
The London-open dip to the london low at 157.877 held the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg. Price then cleared the 158.146 Asian range high to a session high of 158.177 and is now retesting that break, with RSI(14) neutral near 56. Ueda's remarks drew little reaction, and the pair is holding well above the asian low at 157.698, which matched Friday's 157.692 trough.
Support: 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.177, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 158.10 turns the Asian range break into a false break
Close above the 158.177 session high opens the path to the 158.335 friday high
Loss of the 157.877 london low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence
MoF verbal intervention headlines as price approaches 158.50
08:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 53 · price 158.113
Higher low at 157.877 vs 157.698 Asian low; marginal break of Asian high, still inside Friday's range.
Early in the London session, price pushed through the 158.146 Asian high to a 158.177 London high, then stalled and slipped back to 158.11. RSI(14) is neutral near 53. Rising lows from the 157.698 Asian low, which matches Friday's 157.692, to the 157.877 London low frame the move, but price is still inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 range as the yen holds its tight band near 158.00.
Support: 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.146, 158.177, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 158.146 Asian high turns the London push into a false break
M15 close above the 158.177 London high opens the path to the 158.335 Friday high
Break of the 157.877 London low snaps the rising lows line and exposes the 157.698 Asian low
Fib 50% of the London leg near 158.03 is the first pullback reference
No US/Japan data due in the next 8h; MoF intervention rhetoric toward 158.50+ is the main headline risk
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 158.16
London breakout above Asian range high after a higher-low dip.
The London open dipped to 157.88, a higher low above the 157.70 Asia low, then pushed through the 158.15 Asian high to 158.18, with RSI(14) neutral near 58. Ueda's hawkish remarks left the yen flat, and the Friday high at 158.34 is the next cap overhead.
Support: 158.146, 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
Holding above the Asian high at 158.15 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back inside the Asian range flags a false break
An M15 close below the London low at 157.88 breaks the higher-low line and reopens the Asia low at 157.70
Clearing the Friday high at 158.34 exposes the 158.50 round number, where the digest flags rising intervention risk
Tuesday's US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since Asia · RSI 51 · price 158.078
Inside Asian range, higher low at London open.
The London open dip to 157.88, the london low, held near the 61.8% retracement of the Asian leg up from the 157.70 asian low. Price snapped back to 158.08 and sits below the 158.15 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51. The digest backs the range read: hawkish BoJ talk is already priced, intervention risk caps the topside and the US calendar is light.
Support: 157.877, 157.698
Resistance: 158.146, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 158.34 friday high
Loss of the 157.88 london low and the rising trendline puts the 157.70 asian low back in play
No scheduled USD/JPY data in the next 8h; BoJ remarks or MoF intervention headlines are the main intraday swing factor
07:46 UTC
Range-bound, rising lows since Asia · RSI 49 · price 158.055
Inside Asian range 157.70–158.15, early London dip held at higher low.
USD/JPY is back at 158.05 in the first hour of London after the open dipped to the 157.88 london low, a 61.8% retrace of the Asian range. The asian low at 157.70 sits on Friday's 157.69 low, and supply capped the asian high at 158.15 twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and the yen is flat, with little reaction to Ueda's remarks.
Support: 157.88, 157.70
Resistance: 158.15, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 asian high opens the path to the 158.335 friday high
Failure to hold the 157.88 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 157.70 asian low
Break below 157.70 ends the range read
07:31 UTC
Range-bound, short-term pullback from session high · RSI 40 · price 157.964
Asian range 157.70–158.15; pre-London slide back below 158.00.
Ueda's remarks barely moved the yen. Asia built a 157.70–158.15 range, with a rejection from the 158.146 Asian high in the hour before London open. The London open low at 157.877 held at the fib 61.8 retracement of the Asian rally, and price sits just under the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 157.877, 157.869, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.146, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.877 london low exposes the 157.70 asian low, also Friday's low
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number puts the 158.146 asian high back in play; above that, the 158.335 friday high
Hormuz or French-yield headlines can trigger safe-haven USD bids outside the calendar
07:16 UTC
Pulling back from Asia high, short-term lower low · RSI 35 · price 157.887
London open unwinding the Asian range climb; price back mid-range below 158.00.
Asia climbed from the post-Ueda asian low at 157.70 to the asian high at 158.146, but London open brought three straight down bars. Those bars broke the 158.00 round number and the 157.90 higher low, putting price into the 61.8% fib near 157.87, with USD soft on Fed-pause pricing. RSI(14) is near 35, heavy but not oversold, and the pair is back mid-Asian range.
Support: 157.869, 157.784, 157.698
Resistance: 158.00, 158.146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.784 swing low exposes the 157.70 asian low, which also lines up with Friday's low
Recovery back above the 158.00 round number neutralises the pullback and puts the asian high at 158.146 back in play
Holding the 61.8% fib keeps the Asia advance structurally intact
MoF verbal intervention or a sharp Treasury yield move could override intraday structure
07:01 UTC
Range, Asian upswing fading into London · RSI 46 · price 158.029
Asian range 157.70–158.15; rising lows broken in the last hour.
Asia dipped to 157.70 around Ueda's remarks, matching Friday's NY double low at 157.69, then stair-stepped to an Asian high of 158.146 as the yen shrugged off his comments. Ahead of the London open the rising lows gave way. Price slipped to 157.99 near the 38.2% fib and sits below EMA20, with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 157.975, 157.90, 157.695
Resistance: 158.146, 158.335
What it said to watch
London open break of the 157.70–158.146 Asian range sets the session direction
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib near 157.975 exposes the 157.90 shelf
M15 close above the 158.146 asian high reopens the 158.335 friday high
A loss of the 157.70 double low breaks the range toward the 157.50 pivot cited in the JPY digest
MoF verbal intervention headlines could jolt the range without warning
Higher lows off the 157.70 Asian low, now compressing under 158.15.
Monday's Asia session dipped to the 157.70 Asian low, near Friday's NY low, then built a higher low at 157.90 and reclaimed 158.00. Gains have stalled in a tight 158.03–158.15 band below the Asian high ahead of London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and ATR is about 6 pips, so ranges are tight. The digest has USD/JPY pinned near 158.00 with no data due in the next 8 hours.
Support: 158.033, 157.90, 157.698
Resistance: 158.146, 158.335
What it said to watch
A London-session close above the 158.15 Asian high exposes the 158.34 Friday high
A break of the 158.03 pullback low puts the 157.90 higher low and the 50% fib near 157.92 in play
A loss of 157.90 undercuts the Asian-session higher-low sequence; the 157.70 Asian low is the next reference
No scheduled data in this window; US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC are the next USD catalyst
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum slowing near session high · RSI 60 · price 158.10
Higher-low chain off the 157.70 Asian low, compressing 158.03–158.15 ahead of London open.
The Asia session dipped to an Asian low at 157.70 near the Tokyo open. That matched Friday's NY low, and price then climbed on a rising higher-low trendline (157.90 swing low, 158.06 higher low) to a 158.15 session high. With RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 6 pips, the pair is coiling just under that high, consistent with the digest's read of USD/JPY pinned near 158.00 by a soft dollar and intervention risk.
Support: 158.06, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.15, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 session high opens the path to the 158.34 friday high
Break of the higher-low trendline and 158.06 higher low ends the Asia HL chain; 157.90 swing low next, near the 38.2% fib at 157.975
Loss of the 157.70 asia low would break the Friday/Monday floor
London open liquidity could break the 158.03–158.15 compression; no scheduled US/JP data in the next 8h
Higher-low chain off a 157.70 double bottom, pressing the Asian range high.
Late Asia session: USDJPY held a 157.70 double bottom, matching Friday's NY low and the Monday open low, then ground higher on a chain of higher lows to a 158.15 session high. Bar ranges have compressed to about 6 pips with RSI(14) near 64. Friday's 158.34 high is the next reference and the double-bottom neckline, while the digest flags softer US yields as the main restraint on upside follow-through.
Support: 158.06, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.15, 158.34
What it said to watch
London open in under an hour; a close above the 158.15 session high extends the Asian range break toward the 158.34 friday high
A close back below the 158.06 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.90 swing low
Loss of 157.70 would void the double btm read and reopen the lower end of the 157.50–159.05 band
No scheduled USD or JPY data in the next 8h; US housing data and ADP on Tuesday are the next calendar risk
06:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 60 · price 158.077
Asia higher-low stair-step off a 157.70 double bottom, capped at 158.15.
Asia retested Friday's NY low and held at 157.70 (asia low), forming a double bottom. Price then climbed in higher lows above the 157.90 swing low to a 158.146 asia high, shrugging off Ueda's hawkish remarks. The latest bar rejected that high, leaving price just above the 158.00 round number into London open, still mid-way through the 157.50–158.50 range.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.146, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.15 asia high opens the friday high at 158.335
Loss of the 158.00 round number (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 157.90 swing low
Break of the 157.70 asia low voids the double bottom
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US yields drive London-NY direction. Japan CPI Thursday is the week's key JPY risk
05:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low · RSI 68 · price 158.128
Higher highs and higher lows since the 157.698 Asian low, pressing the session high.
The Asian session dip to 157.698 held just above Friday's 157.692 low, forming a double btm. Price has since climbed back above 158.00 in a higher-low chain to a 158.143 session high, despite Ueda's hawkish remarks, with RSI(14) near 68. The friday high at 158.335 sits next, below the 158.50 range top that has capped the pair.
Support: 158.033, 157.90, 157.695
Resistance: 158.143, 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.143 session high exposes the 158.335 friday high
Failure to hold the 158.033 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 157.90 higher low puts the 157.69 double btm back in play
Approach to the 158.50 range top raises intervention-rhetoric risk per the yen digest
London open in about 90 minutes could test the Asian rally fib retracement
Higher-low chain off 157.70 asia low, pressing the 158.14 session high.
Mid-Asia session: the early dip to the 157.70 asia low matched Friday's NY trough. Price has since reclaimed 158.00 on a chain of higher lows (157.90 swing low, then 158.03) and sits at the 158.14 session high, with Ueda's comments leaving the yen unmoved. RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 6 pips point to a measured climb rather than a stretched move, still inside the 157.80–158.50 range.
Support: 158.03, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.14, 158.33, 158.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 158.03 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 157.90 swing low near the 50% fib
Acceptance above the 158.14 session high into London open puts the 158.33 friday high in play, with the 158.50 range top beyond
A drop back through the 157.70 asia low would undo the Asian recovery and reopen the lower half of the range
Asia session dipped to a 157.698 session low, holding just above Friday's 157.692 trough. Price then reclaimed 158.00 as Ueda's remarks failed to lift the yen. A higher low at 158.033 has price compressing under the 158.126 session high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 158.033, 157.90, 157.698
Resistance: 158.126, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.126 session high exposes the 158.335 Friday high
Loss of the 158.033 higher low breaks the intraday sequence and brings the 157.900 swing low, near the 50% of the Asian swing, into play
Break below the 157.698 session low negates the Asia recovery and the hold of Friday's low
Japanese verbal intervention headlines could abruptly shift this read even with no scheduled data in the next 8h
04:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia open · RSI 63 · price 158.087
HH/HL chain off 157.70 double low, pressing Asian high.
Monday's Asia session retested Friday's NY low, forming a double low at 157.70. Price has since built higher lows to a 158.13 Asian high and holds above the 158.00 round number with RSI(14) near 63. Ueda's remarks drew no yen reaction, consistent with the 158.00-centred range in the digest.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.126, 158.335
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.13 Asian high around London open opens the path to the 158.34 Friday high
A break of the 157.90 swing low ends the rising-lows sequence
Loss of the 157.70 double low would mark a lower-low below both Friday and Monday lows
Any MoF verbal intervention or BoJ headlines could shift this read quickly
Higher highs and higher lows off the 157.70 base in Asia.
The Asia session dipped to 157.70, matching Friday's NY low for a double bottom, then printed a 157.90 higher low and a 158.13 session high. Price is now holding just above the 158.00 psych level, RSI(14) at 63. Ueda's comments have had no traction, keeping the pair inside its familiar range around 158.00.
Support: 158.00, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.126, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.13 session high opens the 158.33 Friday high
Failure to hold the 157.90 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 157.70 double bottom
Loss of 158.00 psych returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Ueda's speech today could jolt the yen and shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside a broader range · RSI 64 · price 158.084
Higher lows from 157.70 through the Asia session; price below Friday's 158.34 high.
USD/JPY has climbed from a 157.70 double btm, formed by Friday's NY low and Monday's early-Asia low. It has built a higher-low chain to a 158.126 session high mid-Tokyo, with Ueda's remarks leaving the yen unmoved. Price is still inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 range, RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 7-8 pips.
Support: 157.90, 157.698
Resistance: 158.126, 158.335
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.126 session high opens the friday high at 158.335
Loss of the 157.90 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain
Break below the 157.70 double btm invalidates the base and exposes the 157.50 pivot
London open in roughly 3h typically resets the Asian range
04:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, RSI firm but not stretched · RSI 68 · price 158.121
Higher lows off a 157.70 double low; Asia high at 158.09 cleared, price at session high.
Monday's Asia session dipped to 157.70, matching Friday's NY double low. It then rallied about 42 pips on a chain of higher lows (157.70, 157.90, 157.98) and is now pressing just above the 158.09 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 68. The digest has the pair back above 158.00 with traders holding off ahead of central bank events, and Ueda's remarks drew little reaction.
Support: 158.09, 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.335, 158.50
What it said to watch
A close back below 158.09 would turn the Asia high break into a false break
Loss of the 157.90 higher low (near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally) breaks the higher-low line
London open may test the 158.335 Friday high; a close above it puts the 158.50 range top in play
A drop back to the 157.70 double low would put the digest's 157.80 range floor under pressure
03:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia dip · RSI 68 · price 158.083
Higher lows inside 157.70–158.34 range, testing Asia session high.
Asia session dipped to 157.70, matching Friday's NY low to form a double low, then reclaimed 158.00. Ueda's comments had little effect. Price has since printed a higher low at 157.90 and is pressing the 158.10 session high, with RSI(14) near 68; Friday's 158.34 prior high caps the range above.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.10, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.10 session high opens the 158.34 prior high
Break below the 157.90 higher low voids the rising line from the Asia low
Loss of the 157.70 double low breaks the Friday–Monday range floor
Higher low at 157.90 after double low at 157.70; testing Asian range top.
Asia session is pressing the session high at 158.10 after the Tokyo-open dip held 157.70, matching Friday's NY low for a double low. A higher low at 157.90 sits on rising support, and Ueda's repeat inflation remarks drew no reaction inside the 157.50–158.50 band.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.10, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.10 session high opens Friday's NY high at 158.335
Break of the 157.90 higher low and rising support returns price toward the 157.70 double low
No scheduled data in the next 8h; MoF verbal intervention as price approaches 158.50 could shift this read
03:16 UTC
Range, recovering from Asia dip · RSI 59 · price 157.992
Double low at 157.70, higher low 157.90, capped by Asian high.
The Asia dip to 157.70 matched Friday's NY low, forming a double low. It drew demand back to 158.05, then printed a higher low at 157.90, and the pair now sits at 157.99, near the 50% fib of Friday's rally, with the Asian high at 158.05–158.09 overhead. Ueda's repeat of his 'inflation near 2%' line drew no reaction, and the pair is holding inside a tight Asian range.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.09 asian high completes the double low and opens Friday high at 158.335
Loss of 157.90 higher low breaks the rising-lows line; below 157.70 double low the range read fails
London open in ~4h is the first test of the Asian range; no tier-1 data due in the next 8h
03:01 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 59 · price 157.988
Higher low at 157.90 after a double bottom at 157.70, capped below the 158.09 session high.
Asia session dipped to 157.70 at the Tokyo open, matching Friday's NY low for a double low, then rebounded to 158.05. The pullback held a higher low at 157.90, and price is back near 158.00, about midway through the Friday high to Monday low swing. Ueda's repeat of his 'near 2%' line drew no reaction, with Fed-pause pricing keeping USD subdued.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
Close above the 158.09 session high opens the 158.335 Friday high
Loss of the 157.90 higher low returns focus to the 157.70 double low
Break of 157.70 invalidates the double bottom and exposes the 157.50 pivot
No scheduled US or Japan data in the next 8h; Japan trade balance due Tue 23:50 UTC
02:46 UTC
Flat, two-way intraday chop · RSI 53 · price 157.946
Range 157.70–158.09, Asia session mid-range after a Tokyo-open dip.
The Tokyo-open dip to 157.70 matched Friday's NY low, forming a double low. The bounce stalled with a rejection at 158.05, under the 158.09 session high, and price is now holding a higher low near 157.90, around 30% back on the 61.8% fib grid of that bounce. Ueda's remarks barely moved the yen, leaving USD/JPY pinned near the EMA50 inside a 39-pip range.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.09, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.70 double low breaks the range and exposes the 157.50 pivot
Close above the 158.09 session high opens a run at the 158.34 friday high
Loss of the 157.90 higher low puts the 61.8% fib near 157.83 in play
London open in about 4.5h could expand the Asian range
Strait of Hormuz headlines could override the range read
Range 157.70–158.09, Friday high a failed extension.
Monday Asia is trading inside Friday's 157.70–158.09 range. The Tokyo-open dip to 157.70 matched Friday's NY low for a double low, and the rebound stalled under the range top at 158.05. Ueda's comments barely moved JPY. Price is back at 157.94 near the 157.90 pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.07, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.90 pullback low (38.2% of the rebound sits near 157.92) puts the 157.70 double low back in play
M15 close below 157.70 breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.50 pivot
Close above the 158.07 range top reopens the 158.335 Friday high, where Friday's false break reversed
Hormuz or MoF headlines could jolt the range during thin Asia hours
Mid-Asia session Monday, the pair dipped to 157.70 and matched Friday's post-NY-open low for a double low. It then rebounded on a higher low at 157.86 to 158.05, just under the asian high at 158.09. Weekend Hormuz headlines and a familiar Ueda line have not pushed price out of Friday's 157.69–158.34 range, capped by the friday high.
Support: 157.86, 157.70
Resistance: 158.09, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 asian high opens a retest of the 158.34 friday high
Loss of the 157.86 higher low puts the 157.70 double low back in play; a break there extends the range lower
Ueda remarks today or fresh Hormuz/oil headlines could materially shift this read
Early Asia session dipped to 157.70 on weekend Hormuz/Iran headlines, matching Friday's low, and the rejection left a double low. Price has since printed a higher-low trendline back to 158.02, just under the 158.09 session high. The Asia leg from 157.70 to 158.05 has not retraced yet, and Ueda's remarks barely registered.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.087, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 session high opens the path to the 158.34 friday high
Break of the higher-low trendline and 157.90 higher low turns the Asia leg into a fib retracement toward 157.83–157.87
Loss of the 157.70 double low exposes the 157.50 pivot
Further Hormuz shipping headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday rebound inside a range · RSI 62 · price 158.023
Double bottom at 157.70, pressing the Asian range top.
The Asia session tested 157.70 and held, matching Friday's NY low at 157.69 for a double bottom. The rebound cleared the 157.90 breakout base and reclaimed 158.00, and price now trades just under the 158.09 Asian high. That puts it near the 50% retracement of the slide from the 158.335 Friday high, with weekend Hormuz headlines adding little to the move so far.
Support: 157.90, 157.70
Resistance: 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.09 Asian high opens the path back to the 158.335 Friday high
Slip back below the 157.90 breakout base returns price to the middle of the Asian range
A break of 157.69 invalidates the double bottom read
Oil and Hormuz shipping headlines during the Asia session could lift volatility beyond the ~8.5-pip ATR
Inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 range; Asian lower high at 158.09, double low at 157.70.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap lower and faded from the 158.09 monday high to 157.70. That low matches Friday's NY low at 157.69 to form a double low. The bounce has stalled at 157.94, the 61.8% fib of the Asian decline, leaving price mid-range inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 span (friday high at the top). Weekend Hormuz headlines and Ueda's reiterated hawkish line have produced little net move so far.
Support: 157.70, 157.50
Resistance: 157.94, 158.09, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above 157.94 (61.8% fib) exposes the 158.09 monday high at the top of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 157.70 double low opens the 157.50 range floor flagged as pivotal support
Oil/Hormuz shipping headlines and further Ueda remarks during the Asia session could break the range
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the open, bouncing · RSI 48 · price 157.925
Lower highs from 158.09 session high; low held at Friday low.
Early Asia session faded from the 158.09 session high to 157.70, holding a pip above the 157.69 Friday low despite weekend Hormuz headlines and Ueda's hawkish remarks. A higher low at 157.82 followed, and price now sits at the 61.8% retracement near 157.94, just under the 157.96 swing high.
Support: 157.82, 157.70
Resistance: 157.96, 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.09 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 157.82 higher low turns the focus back to the 157.70 Friday low
A break of the Friday low would leave the double bottom read void and expose the 157.50 range floor
Friday high at 158.335 caps the upper side of the two-session range
Further Hormuz or oil headlines during Asia hours could shift this read
Lower highs from 158.09 Monday open; double low at 157.70 held in early Tokyo.
The early Tokyo dip to 157.70 was rejected at Friday's NY low, forming a double low. Price has recovered to 157.92, back above EMA20 and pressing the fib 38.2 retracement of the 158.33–157.70 drop. Weekend Hormuz headlines and a repeat of Ueda's hawkish line produced only a 4-pip gap and two-way trade inside the broader 157.50–158.50 band.
Support: 157.78, 157.70
Resistance: 157.94, 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above 158.09 monday high clears the lower-high sequence and exposes the 158.33 friday high
Rejection at the fib 38.2 near 157.94 keeps the Monday lower-high structure intact
Failure to hold the 157.78 swing low reopens the 157.70 double low; a break there exposes the 157.50 range floor
Hormuz/oil headlines during the Asia session could shift the USD haven bid quickly
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce off the lows · RSI 37 · price 157.841
Lower highs from the 158.09 open high; 157.69-157.70 double low holding.
Early Asia session: the weekend Hormuz headlines did not produce a dollar bid here. USD/JPY slid from the 158.09 open high through a 157.96 lower high, then printed a rejection wick at 157.70, a few pips above the 157.69 friday low, forming a double low. Price is now pressing the descending lower-highs line near 157.84, RSI(14) 37, ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.96, 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.69 friday low opens the 157.50 pivot from the macro read
A close above the 157.96 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend sequence and puts the 158.09 open high back in play
Friday's 158.335 high caps the wider intraday range
Oil and Hormuz headlines during Tokyo hours could shift the read via US yields
Lower highs from the Monday open high, now pressing the Friday NY low.
The Monday open printed a small gap lower and topped at the 158.09 open high. Price has since stepped down in lower highs into early Tokyo and is now testing Friday's NY low at 157.69, with RSI(14) near 29. Weekend Hormuz headlines have not produced a USD bid, and the pair is leaning toward the low end of its 157.50–159.05 band.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 158.09
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.69 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward 157.50 pivotal support
An M15 close above the 157.88 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Hormuz shipping or oil headlines during the Asia session could reverse the drift through yields
00:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the open · RSI 32 · price 157.772
Lower highs and lower lows in early Asia; fresh session low.
The early-week Asia session faded from the 158.09 session high. It printed lower highs at the 157.96 swing high and 157.88, then a fresh session low at 157.77, retracing nearly 90% of Friday's NY rally on the fib. RSI(14) sits near 32 with the friday low at 157.69 next below, while weekend Hormuz headlines have not lifted USD so far.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.88, 157.96, 158.09
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.69 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.50 pivotal support
Reclaim of the 157.96 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the intraday downtrend read
A hold above the 157.88 lower high would stall the sequence
Hormuz shipping or oil headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since open · RSI 33 · price 157.806
Lower highs 158.09 → 157.96, pressing open low.
Weekly open gapped about 4 pips lower and was rejected at the 158.09 open high. A lower high at the 157.96 bounce high now has price sitting on the 157.78 open low, with RSI(14) near 33 and the pair softer despite weekend Hormuz headlines. Friday's NY swing sits below at the 157.69 friday low, and the 158.34 friday high caps above.
Support: 157.784, 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.96, 158.087, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.78 open low exposes the 157.69 friday low, then the 157.50 pivot
Recovery above the 157.96 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 158.09 open high back in play
Tokyo open liquidity and any Hormuz or oil headlines could materially shift this read
Only a push back through the 158.34 friday high would reverse the post-NY fade