USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Sunday, 18 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the open · RSI 33 · price 157.819
Lower highs from the 158.087 open high, price back at the open low.
The Asia session opened slightly below Friday's close and has printed lower highs from the 158.087 open high. Price has retraced about 80% of Friday's NY rally off 157.692 and is retesting the 157.784 open low, with RSI(14) near 33. Weekend Hormuz headlines have not produced a USD haven bid against the yen so far.
Support: 157.784, 157.692, 157.50
Resistance: 157.96, 158.087
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.784 open low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 157.692 friday low
Recovery above the 157.960 lower high breaks the intraday downtrend line and reopens the 158.087 open high
Loss of 157.692 exposes the 157.50 range pivot, the lower end of the 157.50–159.05 band cited in the JPY digest
Hormuz/Iran headlines through Monday Asia and London trade are the largest near-term swing factor for this read
Lower highs off the weekly-open high, holding above the open low.
The weekly open gapped about 4 pips under Friday's 157.98 close on thin Hormuz-related haven headlines. Price is printing lower highs from the 158.09 open high and has given back most of Friday's NY rally from the 157.69 fri low to the 158.34 fri high, now sitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements. Demand stepped in at the 157.78 open low; early Asia session ranges are tight, with ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 157.784, 157.692
Resistance: 157.96, 158.087, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 157.96 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and points back to the 158.09 open high
Failure to hold the 157.78 open low exposes the 157.69 fri low, with the 157.50 pivot below
Tokyo open liquidity and any Hormuz/Iran escalation headlines could reshape the thin opening range
A recovery through 158.09 puts the 158.34 fri high back in play
23:16 UTC
Intraday down-drift, lower highs since open · RSI 36 · price 157.856
Early Asia range 157.78–158.09 below Friday close.
Monday Asia gapped slightly below Friday's 157.975 close. Supply capped the 158.09 session high and price slid to a 157.78 session low, a ~75% retracement of Friday's NY rally from the 157.69 friday low to the 158.34 friday high. Lower highs since the open, with RSI(14) near 36 and price under both EMAs in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 157.784, 157.692
Resistance: 158.087, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.78 session low exposes the 157.69 friday low and a full retrace of Friday's NY rally
M15 close above the 158.09 session high breaks the lower-highs line from the open
Hormuz/Iran headlines and the oil reaction at the Monday open are the nearest swing factor for a USD haven bid
Approach toward the 158.34 friday high brings the 159 intervention-rhetoric zone back into focus
Week-open range inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 span, lower high at Sunday open.
Thin early-Asia week open saw a rejection at the 158.087 Sunday high, then a dip to the 157.784 Sunday low. That dip held above the 157.692 Friday low and sits near the 78.6% of Friday's NY rally fib. Price is back near 157.91, capped under the 158.00 round number, as Hormuz headlines keep haven flows in focus.
Support: 157.784, 157.692, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.087, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.784 Sunday low exposes the 157.692 Friday low, then the 157.50 range floor
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and the 158.087 Sunday high reopens the 158.335 Friday high
Hormuz/Iran escalation headlines in thin Asia liquidity could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday high; Monday open capped at 158.09.
The thin Monday open faded from the session high at 158.09, the same level that capped Friday's London session, down to an open low of 157.78. That keeps price inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 range and below the 158.00 round number, with the Friday NY leg now retraced past its 61.8% level. Weekend Hormuz headlines have not produced a haven USD bid so far.
Support: 157.78, 157.69
Resistance: 158.00, 158.09, 158.335
What it said to watch
A close below the open low at 157.78 exposes the Friday low at 157.69, the base of the Friday NY leg
A recovery above the 158.00 round number and the 158.09 session high would break the lower-high trendline from the Friday high at 158.335
Hormuz/Iran headlines into the Asia session could materially shift this read; thin early-week liquidity can exaggerate moves
22:31 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since Friday's NY high · RSI 29 · price 157.79
Post-open rejection at 158.09, probing Friday's Asian low.
Monday's open was rejected at 158.09, the open high, which sits well below the 158.34 Friday high set during the NY rebound. That leaves a lower-highs sequence, and price has since slipped back under the 157.93 weekly open. It is now pressing Friday's Asian low near 157.80 in thin early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) around 29 and the Friday low at 157.69 the next reference.
Support: 157.69, 157.50
Resistance: 157.93, 158.09, 158.34
What it said to watch
A break below the 157.69 friday low extends the lower highs toward the 157.50 pivot that the yen digest flags as the range floor.
Recovery back above the 157.93 weekly open and the 158.09 open high negates the post-open rejection.
Thin pre-Tokyo liquidity and weekend IMF headlines could distort early-Asia price action.
Inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 range, Sunday high capped at 158.09.
Early Monday Asia session opened with a 4-pip gap lower and is drifting below 158.00, below both EMAs, after the session high at 158.09 capped the first hour. Friday's NY rally from the 157.69 friday low was rejected at the 158.34 friday high and has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 157.94; Warsh offering no fresh guidance has left upticks fading.
Support: 157.911, 157.796, 157.692
Resistance: 158.087, 158.181, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.91 session low breaks the 61.8% fib of the NY rally and puts the 157.80 asian low from Friday in play
Failure to hold 157.69 friday low confirms a lower-low below the NY rally base
Close above the 158.09 session high reopens 158.18 asian high and the 158.34 friday high rejection
Weekend IMF headlines and thin early-Asia liquidity could produce outsized moves relative to the ~7-pip ATR
21:46 UTC
Flat, pinned around 158.00 · RSI 45 · price 158.008
Mid-range inside Friday's 157.69–158.34 span after weekly open.
Friday's NY session broke below the asian low to a 157.69 friday low, rallied to the 158.34 friday high, then faded to close 157.98, near the 50% retrace of that NY rally. The weekly open gapped about 4 pips lower to the 157.92 open low and recovered to the 158.09 london high on thin liquidity. Price is pinned at 158.00, in line with the muted reaction to hawkish BoJ remarks noted in the digest.
Support: 157.92, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.09, 158.18, 158.34
What it said to watch
A close above the 158.09 london high reopens the 158.18 asian high and the 158.34 friday high
Failure to hold the 157.92 open low and the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally exposes the 157.80 asian low and the 157.69 friday low
Weekend IMF headlines in thin weekly-open liquidity could gap price outside the current range
Japan trade balance (Oct 20, 23:50 UTC) is the next scheduled JPY risk
Asian range 157.80–158.18 held after two-sided NY breaks; early reopen bars.
Friday's NY session first pushed through the asian low to 157.69, the ny low. It then broke above the asian high to 158.34, the ny high. Neither break held, and price closed back inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range as Warsh offered no fresh guidance. The Sunday reopen dipped to the 157.92 reopen low, then recovered to 158.02. That puts price at the 50% retrace of the ny swing, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 157.92, 157.80, 157.69
Resistance: 158.05, 158.18, 158.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 158.05 reopen high and the 158.18 asian high reopens the path to the 158.34 ny high
Failure to hold the 157.92 reopen low exposes the 157.80 asian low, then the 157.69 ny low
Reopen range is still forming in thin early-Asia liquidity, so the first Asian session range will define the next read
Weekend IMF headlines and Japan trade balance (Oct 20, 23:50 UTC) could shift this read
21:16 UTC
Range, mid-retrace after NY reversal · RSI 54 · price 158.034
NY sweep of the Asian low reversed to a session high, now holding the 50% retrace near 158.00.
Friday's NY session swept the Asian low at 157.796 down to a 157.692 NY low, then reversed to a 158.335 session high before fading into a flat close near the 50% fib at 158.00. The weekly open gapped about 4 pips lower to a 157.923 gap low that was quickly filled. Price is back at 158.03, just above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) around 6 pips; the digest's 158.05 pivot is still being respected.
Support: 157.954, 157.923, 157.692
Resistance: 158.092, 158.181, 158.335
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.954 late low and 157.923 gap low (near the 61.8% fib) re-opens the 157.692 NY low
M15 close above the 158.092 pre-NY high puts the 158.181 asian high and 158.335 session high back in play
Thin early-week Asia session liquidity plus weekend IMF headlines could distort the opening range
21:03 UTC
Range-bound, fading after NY spike · RSI 46 · price 157.975
Back inside Asian range after two-sided NY sweep.
Friday's NY session swept the asian low to a 157.69 session low, then ran through the asian high to a 158.335 session high. That break failed back inside the 157.80–158.18 Asian range. Late NY has compressed at 157.95–158.02 into the weekly close, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the NY leg, with Warsh offering no fresh guidance and Ueda's rate rhetoric leaving the pair pinned near 158.00.
Support: 157.954, 157.796, 157.692
Resistance: 158.09, 158.181, 158.335
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 157.95 late ny low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 157.80 asian low, then the 157.69 session low
Reclaim of the 158.09 london high cluster reopens the 158.18 asian high and the 158.335 session high
Weekend IMF meeting headlines could gap the Monday open and reset this range read
Japan Sep trade balance Oct 20 23:50 UTC, plus any MoF verbal intervention, are the next scheduled yen risks