21:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a sideways range · RSI 56 · price 157.727
Lower highs since July peak, higher low off Sep low; 157.50–159.03 range.
USDJPY has printed a lower-high sequence since the 163.99 july high: 160.39 sept high, then 159.03. The 152.89 sept low was followed by a higher swing low at 156.38, leaving four weeks of trade boxed between the 157.50 range floor and the 159.03 range top, with EMA20 (~157.82) and a flattening EMA50 (~158.0) just overhead. Last week's rejection at 158.95 came as the broad dollar retreated on equity-driven yield declines despite hot US data. The range floor sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Sep drop (160.39 to 152.89), and rising lows are now pressing into it.
Support: 157.52, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 159.03, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 157.50 range floor breaks the rising lows and the Sep drop fib 61.8%, exposing the 156.38 swing low
- Loss of 156.38 would reopen the path toward the 152.89 sept low
- Daily close above the 159.03 range top clears the lower highs line toward the 160.39 sept high, where MoF intervention sensitivity builds near 160
- Japan national CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1% vs 1.7% prev): an upside surprise reviving October BoJ pricing could test the range floor
- US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and AI-equity swings feeding US yields could materially shift this read