Lower highs at 158.60/158.39/158.34 against rising lows at 157.70/157.83, a narrowing range above 158.00.
Monday's London-NY rally from the 157.70 week low ran to the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asian session. It has since faded as soft US housing data and Himino's hawkish remarks weighed, leaving a sequence of lower highs at 158.39 and 158.34. Dips in NY on Tuesday and in London on Wednesday both found demand near the 157.83 swing low, building rising lows beneath the round number at 158.00. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of Monday's rally and is pinned between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR compressed to about 13 pips.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 157.83 swing low and the rising lows breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.70 week low
A hold above the round number at 158.00 keeps the compression read intact into Thursday
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower highs into a flat 157.83 floor.
Monday's London-led rally from the 157.70 week low to the 158.60 week high early Tuesday has been retraced to its 50% level. Two dips stalled at the twin lows near 157.83: Tuesday's NY-session drop on the US housing misses, and today's NY-open slide after Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD. Highs have stepped lower to the 158.39 Wed high and 158.34 along a falling trendline, leaving price pinned on flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) at 158.13–158.14 just above the 158.00 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the falling trendline and the 158.39 Wed high reopens the 158.60 week high
Close below the 158.00 round number and the 157.83 twin lows breaks the range floor toward the 157.70 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the range read
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and Friday's US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
157.83–158.60 range, lower highs over a flat floor.
After opening the week at 157.93, the pair rallied from Monday's 157.70 Asia low to a 158.60 week high early Tuesday. Highs have since stepped lower to 158.39 and 158.34. Tuesday's NY dip on the US housing misses and Wednesday's fade, as the trade-deficit spike met Himino's hawkish remarks, both held the 157.83 range floor, deep in the Monday rally fib. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 158.14 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 52, leaving a compressing range between the floor and the lower-highs line.
Support: 158.14, 157.93, 157.83
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 range floor breaks the twin Tue/Wed lows and exposes Monday's 157.70 low
Close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.60 week high
Loss of the weekly open at 157.93 would put price back below this week's starting point
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.83–158.60 weekly range; lower highs from 158.60, double low at 157.83.
From the 157.93 weekly open, Monday's London-NY rally set up Tuesday's Asia-session week high at 158.60. That move unwound in Tuesday's NY session as the US housing misses softened USD, and the pair has since printed a double low at 157.83 on Tuesday and again in early NY today. Today's trade-deficit spike to the 158.39 Wed high faded on Himino's hawkish remarks. Price is now back above EMA(20) near 158.15 with RSI(14) at 56. It sits at the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's sell-off and is pressing the lower-highs line from the week high, with the 158.39 neckline still unbroken.
Support: 158.15, 157.93, 157.83
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.39 wed high confirms the double bottom and opens a retest of the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 158.15 returns price toward the 157.93 weekly open and the middle of the range
A break below the 157.83 double low invalidates the range floor and exposes Monday's 157.70 low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg of this range
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the main scheduled risk to the 158.00 pivot
18:02 UTC
Sideways, contracting range around 158.00 · RSI 51 · price 158.125
Lower highs from 158.60 against a rising swing-low floor near 157.83, converging.
Monday's rally from the 157.70 week low stalled at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asian session. Price has since retraced about half of that move, and the 158.39 lower high was set before BoJ Himino's hawkish remarks pulled the pair lower on Wednesday. Dips into the 157.83 swing low were absorbed during NY hours on both Tuesday (after the housing miss) and Wednesday, leaving a tightening consolidation around the 158.00 round number, with price hugging EMA(20), sitting just under EMA(50) and RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 157.70 week low
H1 close above the 158.39 lower high ends the contraction and puts the 158.60 week high back in play
Loss of the 158.00 round number on a closing basis would shift the pivot to the lower half of the week's range
US initial jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan CPI Thu 22:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.60 into a flat floor near 157.84, compressing.
Monday's impulse from the 157.70 weekly low ran to a 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 158.39 and today's 158.17, as weak US housing data hit the dollar into Tuesday's NY session and Himino's hawkish remarks capped Wednesday's Asian bounce. Demand has stepped in twice at the 157.83–157.84 twin lows, and price is now sitting just below the ema20 and the weekly open zone with RSI(14) near 47, inside the 61.8% retrace of the Monday impulse.
Support: 157.84, 157.70
Resistance: 158.10, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.84 twin lows breaks the floor and exposes the 157.70 weekly low and the 157.50 range floor
Close above the lower-high trendline and 158.39 negates the compression read and reopens the 158.60 week high
Inability to reclaim the ema20 near 158.10 keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.83–158.60 range; lower high at 158.39 over twin lows at 157.83.
Monday's London-into-NY rally off the 157.70 week low stalled at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 158.39 on Japan's wider trade deficit, then slid in London today as Deputy Governor Himino's hawkish remarks and a soft USD pulled it back. The twin lows at 157.83 from Tuesday's NY dip and today's London low have held, with price back on EMA(20) near 158.11 but capped below EMA(50) at 158.19, RSI(14) near 47 and ATR(14) around 13 pips.
Support: 157.93, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.19, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 157.83 twin lows breaks the range floor and exposes the 157.70 week low
Failure to hold the 157.93 weekly open puts the twin lows back in play
A close above EMA(50) at 158.19 and the lower-highs trendline near the 158.39 lower high would reopen the 158.60 week high
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (ex Fresh Food f/c 2.1%) and US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Meta earnings after today's US close: AI-related risk-off has weighed on USD in recent sessions
Range 157.84-158.60, compressing under lower highs.
Monday's climb from the 157.70 week low to the 158.60 week high has since been capped. Tuesday's 158.39 lower high leaves price coiling inside a 157.84-158.60 range, with twin lows at 157.83-157.84 holding during Tuesday's NY hours and again into today's NY session. Himino's hawkish remarks and a softer USD dragged the pair back toward the 158.00 round number, but buyers stepped in again and price now sits near EMA(20) and the 50% level of Monday's rally, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 158.00, 157.84, 157.70
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.84 twin lows would break the range floor and expose the 157.70 week low
Close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.60 week high
Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 158.00 round number shifts focus back to the twin lows
13:02 UTC
Range, rolling over inside the week's band · RSI 31 · price 157.847
Lower highs pressing into a twice-tested 157.83 floor.
USDJPY has given back nearly all of Monday's rally from the 157.70 week low to the 158.60 week high. The Asia bounce on Japan's wider trade deficit stalled at a 158.39 lower high, and Himino's hawkish remarks plus a softer dollar pulled price back. London-session selling then broke 158.00 and the 157.93 week open, leaving price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 31 as it retests Tuesday's NY low at 157.83.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.50
Resistance: 157.93, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 Tuesday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 157.70 week low
A break of 157.70 opens the 157.50 range floor that has framed trade since early October
Recovery above the 157.93 week open and the 158.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Meta Q3 earnings tonight and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Lower highs since Tuesday, pressing range lows · RSI 32 · price 157.861
158.60 week high capped; 157.70–158.60 range with 158.00 floor giving way.
Monday's rally from the 157.70 week low topped at 158.60 in Tuesday's Asia session, and price has printed lower highs since. Wednesday's Asia lift to the 158.39 wed high on Japan's wider trade deficit met rejection through London after Himino's hawkish inflation remarks, with the late-London leg breaking the 158.00 round number and the ema20 near 158.11. Price now sits past the 78.6% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday rally, just above the 157.825 tuesday low, with RSI(14) near 32, its weakest reading of the window.
Support: 157.825, 157.698, 157.50
Resistance: 158.00, 158.11, 158.389
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.825 tuesday low confirms a lower low and exposes the 157.70 week low
Break of the week low opens the 157.50 range floor that has held since early October
Reclaim of the 158.00 round number and the ema20 at 158.11 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Move back above the 158.39 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline from 158.60
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 157.70–158.60 weekly range.
Monday's rally from the 157.70 weekly low peaked at the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asian session, and price has since slipped back to the 61.8% retracement of that Monday rally fib near 158.04. Tuesday's dip to 157.83 at the London-NY transition on soft US housing data held, and Wednesday's spike to 158.39 after Japan's wider trade deficit faded on Himino's hawkish comments. That leaves a lower-high trendline pressing against a higher-low trendline, with price under EMA20 (158.16) and the 158.00 round number tested twice today as RSI(14) sits at 43.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.16, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 158.00 round number and the tuesday low at 157.83 breaks the higher-low trendline and re-exposes the 157.70 weekly low
Recovery above EMA20 at 158.16 and the wed high at 158.39 breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 158.60 week high
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's rally ran from the 157.70 week low through London and NY to the 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. Softer USD after the weak housing data dragged price back to the 157.83 Tue low early in the NY session. Since then a lower high at 158.39 (the wed high) and a higher low at 158.03 have compressed price around the 50% retracement of Monday's move. Today's wider Japan trade deficit briefly lifted the pair before BoJ Deputy Governor Himino's hawkish remarks pulled it back, leaving price just under a flattening ema20 near 158.18 with RSI(14) parked near 50.
Support: 158.03, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.18, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 158.18, then above the 158.39 wed high, breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 158.03 higher low (61.8% retracement) ends the contraction and exposes the 157.83 tue low and 157.70 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Oct 22 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs against higher lows, contracting 157.70–158.60 range.
Monday's rally ran from the 157.70 weekly low to the 158.60 weekly high through London into NY. It faded through Tuesday, with a NY-hours dip to the 157.83 Tue low on US-Iran deal headlines, and has printed lower highs since. Today's Asia spike to the 158.39 Wed high on Japan's trade miss met rejection, and price slipped back to the 158.03 Wed low around Himino's hawkish remarks. Price now sits just under a flat EMA20/50 ema cluster near 158.19, with RSI(14) at 46 and the 50% retracement of the Monday rally at 158.15, squeezed between a lower-high line and a higher-low line.
Support: 158.03, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.19, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high line and the 158.39 wed high reopens the 158.60 weekly high
Failure to hold the 158.03 wed low and the higher-low line exposes the 157.83 tue low, then the 157.70 weekly low
Repeated H1 closes back above the 158.19 ema cluster would shift the read away from the fade
US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) could break the contracting range
08:02 UTC
Sideways, two-way within the week's range · RSI 46 · price 158.131
Contracting range: higher low on Tuesday, lower high on Wednesday.
From the 157.93 weekly open, Monday's London-NY rally ran from the 157.70 week low to a 158.60 week high early Tuesday. Tuesday's NY session then saw a sell-off to 157.83 on US-Iran deal headlines that pulled yields lower, before the pair recovered. Wednesday's Asia push off the soft Japan trade data stalled at a 158.39 day high, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near the 50% retracement of Monday's leg, with RSI(14) at a neutral 46 and the rising lows and falling highs compressing the range.
Support: 158.03, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.18, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 158.18 and the 158.39 day high reopens the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 158.03 day low exposes the tuesday low at 157.83 and the rising lows trendline
A break of the 157.70 week low would end the higher-low sequence and invalidate the range-hold read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could break the compression
Monday's London-NY rally from the 157.70 week low ran to the 158.60 week high, then reversed in Tuesday's Asia session. The NY dip to the 157.83 Tuesday low came on the US housing misses (pending home sales -7.3%) and was bought back to 158.20. Wednesday's Asia session stalled at a 158.39 lower high despite Japan's wider trade deficit, leaving price flat at EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 50, about midway through the Monday rally fib.
Support: 158.03, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.39 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 158.03 day low exposes the 157.83 Tuesday low and the 157.70 week low
Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 158.20; a run of closes on either side would set the next leg
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Oct 22 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows inside the 157.70–158.60 weekly range.
USDJPY climbed from the 157.931 weekly open to a 158.599 week high through Monday's London and NY sessions. It reversed in Tuesday's NY session as Iran deal hopes pulled oil and US yields lower, bottoming at the 157.825 tue low near the 78.6% of the Monday rally fib. Since then a lower high at the 158.389 wed high (set in Asia after the soft Japan trade data) and a higher low at the 158.031 wed low (near the 61.8%) have compressed price into a tightening consolidation, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) flat and converged near 158.20 and RSI(14) at 49.
Support: 158.031, 157.825, 157.698
Resistance: 158.389, 158.599, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.389 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 158.599 week high
Loss of the 158.031 wed low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 157.825 tue low, then the 157.698 week low
159.05 range top and 157.50 floor bound the October box; a break of either ends the range read
US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC), Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and Friday's US PMIs/UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower high at 158.39 versus higher lows since Thursday.
Monday's steady climb from the 157.70 week low ran out of steam at the 158.60 week high early Tuesday. Price then unwound most of that move through London into the NY open as Iran deal reports pulled yields lower, before demand stepped in at the 157.83 Tuesday low. The soft Japan trade data lifted the pair to 158.39 in Asia, but that lower high faded back to the 158.03 session low, near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's impulse. Price sits below EMA20 (~158.17) with RSI(14) near 42, compressing between lower highs and higher lows inside the October 157.50–159.05 range.
Support: 158.03, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.17, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA20 and the 158.39 lower high would reopen the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 157.83 Tuesday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 157.70 week low and the 157.50 range floor
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines moving oil and US yields remain a continuous swing factor for the pair
Contracting range: lower high 158.39 under 158.60, higher low 157.83 over 157.70.
USD/JPY has rotated inside 157.70–158.60 since the weekly open near 157.93. Monday's rally ran through London and NY to the 158.60 week high, then unwound into Tuesday's NY session as Iran de-escalation headlines and the weak US housing data softened USD. The tue low at 157.83 held above Monday's 157.70 week low. Wednesday's Asia rebound after Japan's wider trade deficit stalled at the 158.39 asia high, a lower high, and price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 158.18 with RSI(14) around 46 and ATR compressing.
Support: 157.93, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.18, 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 158.18 and then the 158.39 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 158.60 week high
Loss of the weekly open at 157.93 and the 157.83 tue low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 157.70 week low
Deep Monday rally retracement: Tuesday's low tagged roughly 86%, so a close below it negates that move
Japan National CPI (Thu 23:30 UTC) and US-Iran headlines are the likely catalysts to resolve the contracting range
Higher low at 157.83 under lower high at 158.39, inside 157.55–158.60 range.
USD/JPY has rotated inside 157.55–158.60 since Thursday's post-PPI spike. Monday's impulse from the 157.70 monday low ran to a 158.60 week high early Tuesday, then faded about 86% into the Tuesday NY dip to 157.83 on soft US housing data. That tuesday low still printed a higher low, and price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 158.20 with RSI(14) around 58, but the Wednesday asia high at 158.39 sits below the week high, so the lower-high line and higher-low line are tightening the coil while the wider Japan trade deficit overnight barely moved the yen.
Support: 158.20, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.39, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.60 week high breaks the lower-high line and the range top
Failure to hold the 157.83 tuesday low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 157.70 monday low
Repeated H1 closes back below the 158.20 ema20 would undercut the recovery since Tuesday's NY session
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran deal headlines moving US yields remain a two-way risk to the range
157.70–158.60 range; higher low at 157.825, lower high pending at 158.39.
From the 157.93 weekly open, Monday's NY session drove a rally off the 157.698 week low to a 158.599 week high early in Tuesday's Asia session. The NY open on Tuesday reversed most of that move on soft US housing data and Iran-deal headlines that pulled yields lower, but the dip held at the 157.825 tue low, a higher low above Monday's low. The Asia session has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 158.20 after Japan's wider trade deficit, though the 158.389 asia high is so far capping the move below the week high.
Support: 158.20, 157.825, 157.698
Resistance: 158.389, 158.599, 159.05
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.599 week high opens the path toward the 159.05 range top
Rejection at the 158.389 asia high leaves a lower high below the week high and keeps price inside the range
Loss of EMA(20) near 158.20 and a break of the higher-lows trendline below the 157.825 tue low exposes the 157.698 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Iran-deal headlines via US yields and oil remain the main dollar-side swing factor
00:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off a higher low · RSI 56 · price 158.287
157.70–158.60 weekly range, higher low at 157.83.
Monday's rally ran from the 157.70 week low in Asia to 158.55 through London and NY. Tuesday's Asia session set the 158.60 week high, then price slid to a 157.83 tuesday low in NY as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar, a deep 86% retrace of the Monday rally that still held above the week low and left a higher lows sequence. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 158.18 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and is pressing the 158.34 friday high, mid-range and in line with the yen digest's read of USD/JPY pinned around 158.00 into Japan CPI.
Support: 158.18, 157.825, 157.698
Resistance: 158.335, 158.599
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 158.34 friday high opens a retest of the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 157.83 tuesday low breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 157.70 week low back in play
Slipping back below ema20 near 158.18 would return price to the lower half of the range
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read