Mon–Wed range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since Thursday.
From Monday to Wednesday the pair held a 157.83–158.60 range, with the range floor defended on Tuesday and again Wednesday. That floor gave way through Thursday's Asia session and into the London open on risk-off flows and lower UST yields. The NY-open bounce stalled at a 157.35 lower high, below the 38.2% retracement of Thursday's slide. Price has since slipped under the 157.00 psych level to a fresh 156.60 session low. Price is below both EMAs, and RSI(14) near 31 sits just above oversold without divergence.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.355, 157.83
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a miss risks a rebound toward the 157.00 psych level
An H1 close back above the 157.35 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the trendline in question
A reclaim of the 157.83 range floor would turn Thursday's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.60 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk for the Thursday slide
Range floor broken Thursday; lower-high sequence below 157.35.
USD/JPY gave back the Monday-into-Tuesday climb to the 158.60 week high and printed lower highs before Thursday's Asia-into-London selloff broke the 157.83 broken floor tested Tuesday and Wednesday, with risk-off flows and lower UST yields driving the yen bid. The NY-session rebound stalled at the 157.35 rebound high, near the 38.2% retrace of the 158.34–156.69 leg, and price has faded back toward the 156.69 week low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 157.00, and RSI(14) has recovered to about 38 after reaching oversold territory on Thursday.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.355, 157.83
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC tonight (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 157.35 rebound high would break the lower-high sequence and open a retest of the 157.83 broken floor
Failure to hold the 156.69 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
Price regaining the ema20 near 157.00 marks the first sign that downside momentum is fading
Friday's US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
21:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum easing near lows · RSI 31 · price 156.753
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's break of the 157.50 range floor.
Monday-to-Wednesday trade rotated between 157.70 and 158.60, inside the old 157.50–159.00 range. Thursday's Asia and London sessions broke the range floor and dropped to a 156.69 week low, driven by AI-led risk-off and falling US yields that lifted JPY across the board. The early-NY bounce stalled at 157.35, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of Thursday's selloff and below both the range floor and the ema20. Price has faded back to 156.75 in late NY, but RSI(14) near 31 is holding well above the low-20s trough from London, a bullish divergence on closes.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.35, 157.50
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%): a print of 2.0% or below risks a snap back toward the 157.50 range floor
An H1 close below the 156.69 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 156.50 round number in focus
A reclaim of the 157.35 NY bounce high, then a close back above the 157.50 range floor, would invalidate the breakdown read
Friday's US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
A failure to clear the ema20 and the lower-high line keeps the Thursday selloff structure intact
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, range broken lower · RSI 34 · price 156.796
Lower highs since Tuesday's 158.60 week high; Thursday range break to a fresh week low.
From Monday to Wednesday, USD/JPY rotated between the 157.83 range floor and the 158.60 week high, printing lower highs from Tuesday onward. Thursday selloff pressure built from the Asia session into London as AI-led risk-off and softer US yields drove JPY strength, breaking the range floor and setting a week low at 156.69. The early NY bounce met rejection at 157.35, the bounce high, which sat just under EMA(20) and inside the 38.2–50% retracement, and price has since faded back toward the lows with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.22, 157.35, 157.83
What it said to watch
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a snap back toward the 157.83 range floor
H1 close below the 156.69 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 157.22 and the 157.35 bounce high would break the lower highs trendline
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift USD tone into the weekly close
19:01 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bounce faded · RSI 32 · price 156.796
Mon–Wed range broken lower; lower high at 157.35 beneath old floor.
USD/JPY spent Monday to Wednesday boxed between a 157.70 range floor and the 158.60 week high, then broke lower from Thursday's Asia session and extended through London to a 156.69 Thursday low as AI-led risk-off and falling US yields lifted the yen. The NY-session rebound stalled at a 157.35 bounce high, about 40% of the Thursday drop fib, leaving a lower high along the lower-highs trendline. Price is back under the H1 EMA(20) near 157.10 with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR expanded to about 23 pips.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.10, 157.35, 157.70
What it said to watch
Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC: a core print ≤2.0% risks a snap back toward the 157.70 range floor
H1 close above the 157.35 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
A break of the 156.69 Thursday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained trade back above the ema20 near 157.10 would signal the post-break momentum fading
18:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, lower high in place · RSI 34 · price 156.861
Mon–Wed range 157.83–158.60 broken Thursday; lower high 157.36 under the 38.2% fib.
USDJPY held a 157.83–158.60 range from Monday to Wednesday, with the range floor tested twice. It broke lower in Thursday's Asia session and extended through the London open to a week low at 156.69, as AI-led risk-off and lower US yields lifted the yen. The NY bounce after the US claims beat stalled at 157.36, a lower high near the 38.2% fib, and price is back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.36, 157.83, 157.93
What it said to watch
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a sub-2% core print risks a squeeze back toward the range floor
H1 close back above the 157.83 range floor negates the range break, with the weekly open at 157.93 just above
Failure to hold the 156.69 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
A new low with RSI(14) holding above Thursday's trough would mark rsi divergence (bullish)
Friday US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations are a second event risk for the USD side
15:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bounce stalling below EMA20 · RSI 40 · price 157.256
Mon–Wed 157.70–158.60 range broken lower Thursday; lower highs since Tuesday's week high.
USDJPY spent Monday to Wednesday boxed between the 157.70 range floor and Tuesday's 158.60 week high, with lower highs at 158.39 and 158.34. The range broke during Thursday's Asia session as US yields fell and BoJ hike bets lifted JPY, and the drop extended through London to a 156.69 week low before the claims beat helped a bounce into the NY session. That recovery has stalled at 157.35, below the 157.43 ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of the week's high-to-low drop. The weekly open at 157.93 sits above the old range floor, and RSI(14) has recovered from the low 30s to around 40 while holding the round number near 157.00 as the bounce's higher low.
Support: 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.43, 157.70, 157.93
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.70 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Rejection at the ema20 near 157.43 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Loss of the round number at 157.00 exposes the 156.69 week low
Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
US S&P PMIs Friday 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risk
3-day range broken lower; rebound testing 38.2% fib.
USD/JPY held a 157.70–158.60 band from Monday through Wednesday, then broke below the Monday low through today's Asia and London sessions as softer US yields and BoJ Deputy Governor Himino's inflation comments lifted JPY, printing a session low at 156.688. The rebound into the NY open has retraced to the 38.2% fib of today's leg from the 158.249 leg high, near 157.28. Price sits under the EMA(20) at 157.45 and below the round number's upper band, with RSI(14) recovering to ~41 from the mid-20s.
Support: 157.00, 156.688
Resistance: 157.45, 157.698, 158.249
What it said to watch
Failure of the bounce at the EMA(20) near 157.45, around the 50% fib, keeps the downtrend read intact
An H1 close back above the 157.70 Monday low would mark the range break as a false break
A loss of the 157.00 round number reopens the 156.688 session low
Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read; a sub-2% print risks a move back into the old range
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Friday are the next USD-side risk
13:02 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown, bounce stalling · RSI 31 · price 157.048
157.84–158.60 range broken lower; lower highs since Tuesday.
USDJPY held a 157.84–158.60 range from Sunday's 157.93 open through Wednesday, with highs sliding from 158.60 on Tuesday to a lower high at 158.34 on Wednesday. Thursday's breakdown began late in the Asia session and extended through London on softer US yields and hawkish BoJ commentary, cutting through the range floor to a week low at 156.69. The rebound is holding just above the 157.00 round number, below the 38.2% fib of the sell-off at 157.32, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) recovering from below 30.
Support: 157.00, 156.69
Resistance: 157.32, 157.84, 158.34
What it said to watch
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 157.84 range floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
A break below the 156.69 week low extends the downtrend sequence
Failure at the 38.2% fib near 157.32 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Friday 13:45–14:00 UTC
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after range break · RSI 29 · price 156.996
Mon–Wed 157.70–158.60 range broken lower; lower highs through Thursday.
USDJPY held a 157.70–158.60 range from Monday's open through Wednesday, with the 158.60 week high set in Tuesday's Asia session. The range broke lower in Thursday's Asia session, and London extended the slide to a 156.69 day low as softer US yields and BoJ hike bets lifted the yen. Price sits well below EMA(20) near 157.48, with RSI(14) around 29, ATR expanding to about 24 pips and the bounce off the day low stalling near 157.00 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 156.69, 156.50
Resistance: 157.36, 157.48, 157.70
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 157.36 bounce high and EMA(20) near 157.48, which sits with the 38.2% fib retrace, would break the sequence of Thursday lower highs
A recovery back inside the 157.70 range floor would put the range break at risk of a false break
Failure to hold the 156.69 day low exposes the 156.50 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 26 · price 156.839
157.70–158.60 range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since Asia.
Monday to Wednesday held a 157.70–158.60 range, with the 158.60 week high capping and the range floor near 157.70 holding twice. The break came during Thursday's Asia session and extended through the London open, as softer US yields and BoJ hike bets lifted the yen. Price is now about 160 pips off the Thursday high, posting lower highs each hour. It sits well below EMA(20) near 157.55, and RSI(14) around 26 is oversold, with only a shallow bounce from the 156.76 session low so far.
Support: 156.76, 156.50
Resistance: 157.06, 157.55, 157.70
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 157.70 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 156.76 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 156.50 round number
A close above the lower highs trendline and the 157.06 lower high would mark the first pause in the Thursday drop
The 50–61.8% retracement of Thursday's drop sits at 157.51–157.68, overlapping the ema20 and the range floor
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 22 · price 156.773
Range break below 157.84, lower highs since Monday's peak.
USDJPY held a 157.84–158.60 range from Monday's open through Wednesday, with highs fading from 158.60 to 158.34. It broke the range floor during today's Asia session and extended through London open to a 156.76 session low, about 150 pips off the 158.25 day open. The drop tracks lower US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks, and it has left price well below EMA(20) near 157.58 with RSI(14) oversold around 22.
Support: 156.76, 156.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.58, 157.84
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 157.00 psych handle would mark a stall in the impulse; a reclaim of the ema20 / 50% retracement near 157.50–157.58 would challenge the breakdown
Return inside the range floor at 157.84 would turn the move into a false break
Acceptance below the 156.76 session low leaves the 156.50 round number as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
Japan national core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) is the next JPY-side test for the breakdown
09:02 UTC
Downtrend after range break, oversold · RSI 25 · price 157.043
Mon–Wed range 157.70–158.60 broken lower Thursday; lower highs since Tuesday.
USDJPY held a 157.70–158.60 range from Monday to Wednesday, with lower highs forming after Tuesday's 158.60 peak. Thursday's selloff ran from late Asia into London open and broke the range floor, setting a session low at 156.82 as falling US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks lifted JPY. Price is now pinned near the 157.00 round number, well below EMA(20) near 157.68, which sits on the broken range floor. RSI(14) is oversold near 25, with fib 38.2 at 157.40 the first retracement reference.
Support: 157.00, 156.82
Resistance: 157.40, 157.70, 158.34
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.70 range floor and EMA(20) would undercut the range-break read
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number and a break of the 156.82 session low confirms a further lower-low
Rejection at fib 38.2 near 157.40 would keep the lower-high sequence from the 158.34 lower high intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is the next JPY test; a sub-2% print could pull price back toward the range floor
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended after range break · RSI 30 · price 157.179
Lower highs since Tuesday, Mon–Wed range floor broken.
Monday-to-Wednesday trade held a 157.83–158.60 band. Each rally after Tuesday's Asia-session week high at 158.60 printed a lower high: 158.39 and 158.34 on Wednesday, then 158.25 early Thursday. Thursday's drop came through the Asia session, as softer US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks firmed the yen. It broke the 157.60 shelf, the broken floor of the prior range, and extended to a 156.82 week low around London open, with a 40-pip lower wick showing demand stepping in below the 157.00 round number. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 157.76, and RSI(14) has eased back to ~30 from an oversold dip near 25.
Support: 157.00, 156.822
Resistance: 157.60, 157.76, 157.931
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 157.60 broken floor would mark the break as a false break and put the 61.8% retrace of the Thursday drop (~157.70) and EMA(20) at 157.76 in play
Recovery through the 157.93 week open would neutralise the lower-highs sequence from 158.60
Failure to hold the 157.00 round number exposes a retest of the 156.82 week low; acceptance below extends the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is the next yen catalyst for the post-break structure
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extended · RSI 23 · price 157.107
Lower highs since Tuesday's 158.60 peak; 157.50 range floor broken in Asia.
USDJPY broke lower through Thursday's Asia session, cutting through the 157.82–157.84 twin lows set by Tuesday and Wednesday's NY dips, the 157.70 Monday low and the 157.50 range floor. The drop ran to a 157.04 session low as US yields slid and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks firmed the yen. The week has printed lower highs from Tuesday's 158.60 peak. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 23 is the most oversold reading of the window.
Support: 157.04, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.70, 157.84
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 157.04 session low and 157.00 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 157.50 range floor would mark the break as a potential false break
A move back through the 157.70 Monday low and 157.84 twin lows would undo the Asia breakdown
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could shift yields and this read
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) is the next yen catalyst
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg into oversold · RSI 22 · price 157.334
Lower highs since Tuesday's 158.60 peak; 157.83 base broken.
The week opened at 157.93 and Monday's London-NY rally peaked at 158.60 early Tuesday. From there the pair printed a series of lower highs while a 157.83 base held through the Tuesday and Wednesday NY sessions. Thursday's Asia session broke that base and cut through the 157.70 monday low and the 157.50 range floor to a 157.29 session low, as falling US yields and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks lifted JPY. RSI(14) sits near 22, oversold, with ATR(14) expanding to about 16 pips and price well below EMA(20) near 157.90.
Support: 157.29, 157.00
Resistance: 157.50, 157.70, 157.93
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 157.50 range floor would mark the break as a false break of the 12-session range
Failure to hold the 157.29 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 157.00 round number
A recovery through the 157.70 monday low and the 157.93 weekly open, near the 50% retracement of the week's decline, would undercut the downtrend read
The lower-highs trendline near 158.28 caps the structure; only a break above it negates the sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan core CPI at 23:30 UTC (f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 158.60; Thursday Asia broke below the 157.83 base.
The week high at 158.60 printed in Tuesday's Asian session and reversed. Tuesday's US housing misses and softer yields fed a slide to 157.83 into the NY session. A lower high followed at 158.39 and another at 158.34. Thursday's Asian session then broke the 157.83 prior lows and Monday's 157.70 dip, setting a new week low at 157.59 as BoJ Himino's hawkish tone kept JPY supported. Price now sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 32 and the ema20 around 157.98 lining up with the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.83, 157.98, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 157.83 prior lows would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.59 week low exposes the 157.50 range floor of the 12-session consolidation
A recovery through the ema20 and the lower-high trendline near 158.34 would negate the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via yields
Japan Sept CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a core print at or above 2.3% adds pressure on the range floor
Lower highs from 158.60; 157.83 floor broken in Asia, now testing Monday low.
USD/JPY has carved lower highs since Tuesday's 158.60 week high in the Asia session. Rebounds faded at 158.39 and the 158.34 lower high as sliding US yields weighed on the dollar and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks lifted JPY. Thursday's Asia session broke the 157.83 prior floor that held in Tuesday's and Wednesday's NY sessions, printing a 157.59 week low before price stalled back near the Monday low. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 34, and the 157.50 range floor of the 12-session band sits just beneath.
Support: 157.59, 157.50
Resistance: 157.83, 157.93, 158.34
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 157.83 prior floor and the 157.93 weekly open would turn the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 157.59 week low and the 157.50 range floor extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 12-session band
A close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline from 158.60; the 38.2% of the week high to low move sits near 158.21
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan Sept CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Range, sequence of lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 41 · price 157.856
Lower highs at 158.60, 158.39 and 158.34 pressing into a flat 157.83 swing low base.
Monday's rally ran from the 157.70 week low to the 158.60 week high, then faded from Tuesday's Asia session as softer US housing data and Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks weighed. Since then, supply has capped each bounce at a lower high: 158.39, then 158.34. Dips have found demand twice around the 157.83 swing low, during NY hours on Tuesday and into the London-NY transition on Wednesday. Price has slipped back below the ema20 and the 78.6% retracement of the Monday rally in Thursday's Asian range, and is retesting that 157.83 base with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 157.83, 157.70, 157.50
Resistance: 158.07, 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 swing low would break the flat base and expose the 157.70 week low, then the 157.50 range floor.
Close back above the 158.34 lower high would end the lower-high sequence; the ema20 near 158.07 is the first cap on any bounce.
Only a recovery through the 158.60 week high would reopen the top half of the 157.50–159.00 range.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu and Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read.
Lower highs against higher lows inside 157.70–158.60.
Monday's London and NY rally from the 157.70 week low ran to a 158.60 week high in Tuesday's Asia session. Each session since has printed a lower high, at 158.39 on Wednesday's Asia session and at 158.34 into NY. Tuesday's housing misses and Wednesday's hawkish Himino remarks both produced dips that stalled at 157.83 twin lows, so the pair has drifted back into the 50–61.8% zone of the Monday rally fib, sitting on the 158.00 psych pivot just under a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 twin lows breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 157.70 week low
Close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 158.60 week high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could resolve the compression around the 158.00 psych pivot
Japan National CPI at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
Monday's rally ran from the 157.70 week low in Asia to a 158.60 week high early Tuesday. Since then the pair has traded two-way, with the soft US housing data driving a NY low at 157.83 on Tuesday and Wednesday's London-NY transition low matching it, giving twin lows. Highs have stepped lower to 158.39 and then the 158.34 Wed high, with hawkish Himino comments helping cap rallies. Price is now oscillating around a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 158.15, close to the 50% retracement of the Monday rally, and RSI(14) sits at a neutral 52 just above the 158.00 round number.
Support: 158.00, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 158.34 Wed high would break the compression and reopen the 158.60 week high
Failure to hold the 157.83 twin lows would mark a range break toward the 157.70 week low and the 157.50 range floor
Repeated holds of the 158.00 round number keep the read as a mid-range rotation
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Japan national CPI at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
157.83–158.60 range, lower highs into a flat floor.
Monday's London-NY rally ran from the 157.70 weekly low to a 158.60 weekly high in Tuesday's Asia session. Since then the pair has rotated inside a 157.83–158.60 range, posting lower highs at 158.60, 158.39 and 158.34. The range floor at 157.83 held twice around the London-NY transition, first on Tuesday's US housing misses and again Wednesday, while Himino's hawkish BoJ remarks kept rallies short. Price now sits on a flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 158.14, close to the 50% retracement of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) parked near 51 and no momentum skew either way.
Support: 158.14, 157.83, 157.70
Resistance: 158.34, 158.60
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 157.83 range floor breaks the range and exposes the 157.70 weekly low
Close above the 158.34 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 158.60 weekly high back in play
Failure to hold EMA20 at 158.14 turns the flat EMA cluster into overhead resistance inside the range
Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday flash PMIs are the USD-side risk to the range