21:03 UTC
July–September downtrend stalled, sideways since late September · RSI 53 · price 158.288
Lower highs from 163.99; range 157.50–159.05 capping the September rebound.
The 30 July collapse from the 163.99 july high set a lower-high sequence. The pair failed at a 160.39 lower high on 2 September, then dropped to the 152.89 sep low on 8 September. The rebound stalled at the 159.05 sep high, and the pair has spent four weeks in a 157.50–159.05 range. That range sits on the 50% retrace of the July–September decline, with a range cap overhead and rising lows from the 156.38 sep 30 low underneath. EMA(20) and EMA(50) have flattened around 158.00 and RSI sits mid-50s. A soft USD and BoJ hike pricing are offset by carry demand, while intervention risk near 159.05 limits the topside.
Support: 157.50, 156.38, 152.89
Resistance: 159.05, 160.39, 163.99
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 159.05 sep high and range cap opens the 160.39 lower high; MoF intervention risk is concentrated in this zone
- Daily close below the 157.50 range floor breaks the rising lows and exposes the 156.38 sep 30 low
- Loss of 156.38 would resume the lower-high, lower-low sequence toward the 152.89 sep low
- Japan National CPI Thu 23:30 UTC (ex Fresh Food f/c 2.1%) and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
- Fed and ECB meetings next week, then the 30 Oct BoJ decision, are the next catalysts for a range break