19:04 UTC
Range-bound after 2025 uptrend stalled · RSI 49 · price 158.149
152-160 range since Jan 2026; July false break to 163.99 fully unwound.
The 2025-26 advance from 139.89 stalled in Q1 2026. Since January the pair has been range-bound between the 152.10 range floor and the 160.40 range top, and the July push to the 163.99 2026 high was a false break that reversed in a single week. Price holds above the W1 EMA50 near 156.40 and sits near the 23.6% retracement of the 2025-26 advance, so the macro trend filter is intact while RSI near 49 offers no extreme signal. Wide Fed-BoJ rate differentials underpin the pair, but intervention risk and a softer USD tone after dovish Fed-speak have kept price capped below 160.
Support: 156.40, 155.25, 152.10
Resistance: 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the august low at 155.25 and the ema50 near 156.40 would shift the regime from range toward reversal, exposing the 152.10 range floor.
- A break of the range floor at 152.10 would bring the 50% retracement of the 2025-26 advance near 151.94 into play.
- A weekly close above the 160.40 range top would reopen the 2026 high at 163.99; official intervention warnings have capped prior approaches to 160.
- Japan National CPI (Oct 22) and US S&P Global PMIs (Oct 23) could materially shift December BoJ and Fed pricing, and with it this read.