19:02 UTC
Uptrend stalled, range since late-July peak · RSI 46 · price 156.972
Lower highs below 160.40 inside a 152.90-160.40 range, price sitting on EMA(50).
The advance from the mid-2025 base near 142 peaked at the 163.99 cycle high in late July 2026. The drop back below the 160.40 range top made that move a false break, and the pair has ranged between the 152.90 range floor and 160.40 since, with lower highs forming under the top. Price sits just above the W1 EMA(50) near 156.40 and below the EMA(20) around 158.20, and RSI is mid-range near 46. The 50% retracement of the 142-164 move held at the range floor, so the macro structure is flattening rather than reversing. This week's slip came as falling US yields and haven JPY demand outweighed firm US PMIs, which puts the ema50 in focus.
Support: 156.40, 155.20, 152.90
Resistance: 158.20, 160.40, 163.99
What it said to watch
- A W1 close below the ema50 near 156.40 exposes the 155.20 swing low and then the 152.90 range floor
- A recovery through the ema20 at 158.20 that breaks the lower highs line, followed by a close above the 160.40 range top, reopens the path to the 163.99 cycle high
- A W1 close below the 152.90 range floor and 50% fib would shift the regime from range to reversal
- The Fed decision (Wed 28 Oct) and BoJ decision (Fri 30 Oct) could materially shift this read; December-hike signalling from either side is the swing factor for the US-Japan yield gap