Lower highs / lower lows since the 163.95 peak; four-session rebound off the 152.89 cycle low.
USDJPY has been in a clear D1 downtrend since the 163.95 peak, breaking lower in two sharp legs — first through 158.00, then a second impulse that bottomed at the 152.89 cycle low. The last four sessions have retraced roughly a third of that September drop, but the advance stalled at the 156.41 weekly high with price still beneath EMA20 and a falling EMA50, and the 160.39 prior high now caps the broader structure. The hawkish FOMC hike underpinned the bounce, while a fully-priced BoJ move to 1.25% has kept the recovery contained.
Support: 155.29, 152.89
Resistance: 156.41, 158.72, 160.39
What it said to watch
A daily close above the 156.41 weekly high would break the lower-high chain running down from 163.95
The 158.72 breakdown area is the first untested supply zone above — a region to monitor for rejection or acceptance
Failure to hold the 155.29 prior low re-opens the sequence toward the 152.89 cycle low
BoJ decision Friday 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT can materially reshape this read within one bar
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-July peak; last 5 sessions rebounding inside a 153.30-156.40 band.
USDJPY has been in a defined downtrend since the 163.985 late-July peak, carving lower highs at 160.20 and 156.41 and a swing low at 152.89 in the most recent leg. The hawkish Fed repricing this week powered a four-session bounce that stalled at the 156.41 prior high, with the last bar closing back at 155.85 below EMA(20) near 156.30 and well under a falling EMA(50). Sessions since the 152.89 print have held above the 153.28 sept low, so the daily read is a corrective rebound inside a roughly 300-pip band rather than a trend change.
Support: 153.28, 152.89
Resistance: 156.41, 158.21, 160.20
What it said to watch
A daily close above the 156.41 prior high would break the chain of lower highs; only a close above the 158.21 breakdown level questions the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 153.28 sept low would confirm continuation toward the 152.89 swing low
BoJ decision Friday 03:00 GMT (1.25% fully priced) and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant event risks for this daily structure
Japan National CPI ex fresh food tonight (f/c 1.8%) is the last pre-decision input
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-July 163.99 peak; four-session recovery off the 152.89 base.
Two months of distribution: the 163.99 top gave way to two impulsive down legs, the second one closing at 152.89 for a clear lower low, and price remains below a falling EMA(50) near 158.90. The last four sessions have retraced roughly a third of that leg, stalling into the 156.41 prior high after the Fed's hawkish dot plot rebuilt carry demand for the dollar. RSI(14) at ~36 has lifted off its washout reading without reclaiming the midline, and daily ATR near 150 pips shows the range is still wide.
Support: 154.21, 152.89
Resistance: 156.41, 158.21, 158.90
What it said to watch
BoJ decision and Ueda press conference Friday is the dominant event risk for this structure
Daily close above the 156.41 prior high would break the chain of lower highs and put the 158.21 broken low back in play
Failure to hold the 154.21 swing low reopens the 152.89 sept low
Price re-entering the falling EMA(50) near 158.90 would end the sequence of lower highs