Higher highs since Monday's open, now coiling under the week high.
Price has climbed almost continuously from Monday's 153.42 open, with the decisive leg coming in the FOMC hour on Wednesday's NY session — a single bar from 154.83 to 155.92 that broke the 155.40/155.49 shelf and extended to the 156.41 week high. Thursday's sessions gave part of that back as JPY firmed into the BoJ, with the pullback finding demand at 155.33 before a recovery to 156.10, and Asian hours have been near-flat either side of EMA(20) at 155.86. RSI(14) has cooled from post-FOMC extremes to the mid-50s while the last five bars hold sub-10 pip ranges — momentum is parked, not reversed.
Support: 155.86, 155.53, 155.33
Resistance: 156.10, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT with the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the dominant near-term risk to this read; Japan national CPI ex-fresh-food at 23:30 GMT lands inside the next bar
Hourly close above the 156.41 week high re-opens the post-FOMC impulse; repeated capping at 156.10 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Loss of EMA(20) at 155.86 and then the 155.53 prior-day low would confirm the consolidation is resolving lower
A close back below the 155.33 swing low would negate the breakout structure entirely
Higher lows since Monday, capped under the week high.
The week opened near 153.40 and ground higher session after session, with the decisive leg arriving in the Wednesday London-NY window as the Fed's hike and hawkish dots lifted the pair almost a full figure in one hour to a 156.41 week high. Thursday reversed part of that as hardening BoJ hike bets bid the yen, dragging price to 155.33 before demand stepping in through the NY session rebuilt it to 156.05; Asia is now coiling in a tight 15-pip band just under the 156.10 ny high. Price holds above both EMA(20) near 155.88 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) mid-50s after cycling down from overbought post-FOMC.
Support: 155.88, 155.55, 155.33
Resistance: 156.10, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT plus Ueda at 06:30 GMT is the dominant risk to this read within the next few bars
Japan National CPI ex fresh food at 23:30 GMT lands inside the Asia session and can break the current consolidation
Hourly close back above the 156.10 ny high reopens the 156.41 week high
Loss of the 155.88 ema20 and then 155.55 prior low would break the higher-lows sequence that has held since Monday
Acceptance below 155.33 thu low would confirm the post-FOMC breakout has failed
Higher highs/lows into a post-impulse consolidation under 156.20.
USDJPY has trended higher every session since Monday's open from 153.35, with the dominant move a single-hour +95 pip impulse into the NY session on Wednesday as the Fed delivered its hawkish 25bp hike, topping out at the 156.41 week high. Thursday's London and NY hours gave that back in part on firming BoJ hike pricing, carving a pullback low at 155.33 before price rebuilt to the 155.95–156.19 area. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 50s from overbought and price is sitting only marginally above the H1 EMA(20) at 155.87, so the week's impulse is now in a tight consolidation rather than extension.
Support: 155.87, 155.55, 155.33
Resistance: 156.19, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and Ueda's 06:30 GMT presser fall inside the next few H1 bars and can reset this structure entirely
Hourly close above the 156.19 session high re-opens the 156.41 week high
Loss of the 155.55 prior-day low would break the week's higher-low sequence and put the 155.33 pullback low back in play
Repeated closes below the EMA20 at 155.87 would mark the first failed pullback of the week
Higher highs since Monday's open, now consolidating under the week high.
Price has climbed roughly 290 pips from Monday's 153.53 open, with the dominant move a single-bar expansion out of 154.97 — the fomc base — into the NY session on Wednesday that ran to the 156.41 week high. Since then the pair has worked sideways in a 155.33–156.28 band, the Thursday day low at 155.33 marking the deepest give-back before demand stepped in and lifted the pair back onto the 155.85 EMA(20), with RSI(14) cycling in the low-50s rather than resetting to oversold. The 156.10 prior high area has capped the last three attempts; JPY firmed modestly through Thursday's Asia and Europe hours as BoJ hike pricing built.
Support: 155.85, 155.33, 154.97
Resistance: 156.10, 156.41
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food at 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT Friday, with the Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT, can materially reset this read within the next few bars
Hourly closes back below the 155.85 ema20 would put the 155.33 day low back in play; a break there confirms a lower low and ends the higher-low sequence
A close above the 156.10 prior high re-opens the 156.41 week high as the area to monitor for rejection or break
Loss of 154.97, the fomc base, would fully unwind the post-Fed expansion move
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 56 · price 156.02
Higher highs/lows since Monday, now two-day range 155.33-156.41.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike lifted USDJPY almost a full yen in a single hour from 154.97 to the 156.41 week high, extending a grind higher off Monday's 153.35 open. Thursday's London/NY hours gave part of that back to a 155.33 session low as BoJ hike bets firmed, but price has since recovered to close at 156.02, back above the EMA(20) at 155.88. Since the spike the chart has printed lower highs from 156.41 toward 156.06 while holding higher lows — a compression under the prior day high at 156.31 rather than a trend break.
Support: 155.33, 155.00
Resistance: 156.31, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT plus Ueda's 06:30 GMT presser is the dominant cross risk to this range read
Japan National CPI ex fresh food at 23:30 GMT lands inside the next few bars
An hourly close above 156.31 prior day high negates the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 156.41 week high
Loss of the 155.33 session low would confirm the first lower low of the week, with 155.00 psych beneath
Sustained trade back below the EMA(20) at 155.88 would flatten the week's higher-low structure
Higher lows since Thursday's NY low, capped under the week high.
The dominant move of the week came in a single H1 bar during Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike and dot plot lifted the pair from 154.83 to a 156.412 week high — roughly 160 pips in two bars. Thursday's London and NY sessions have been corrective rather than directional: price built a flag between 155.53 and 156.13 as the yen firmed into the BoJ, and the sequence of higher lows off 155.33 has carried price back above EMA20 near 155.86, with RSI(14) flat around 50. The 156.30 supply cap has not been retested since the initial spike.
Support: 155.86, 155.53
Resistance: 156.30, 156.412
What it said to watch
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT and Ueda press conference 06:30 GMT are the dominant single-event risk for this read
Japan National CPI ex fresh food at 23:30 GMT (f/c 1.8%) lands inside the next few bars
An H1 close above the 156.30 supply cap would put the 156.412 week high back in play
Loss of the 155.53 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and invalidates the flag read
Failure to hold EMA20 near 155.86 on pullbacks would mark a shift from consolidation to distribution of the post-FOMC impulse
Higher highs/higher lows since Monday's open, now ranging 155.33–156.41.
Price has climbed roughly 250 pips from Monday's open near 153.50, with the dominant leg coming in the NY session Wednesday when the hawkish FOMC hike drove a single-bar 95-pip advance into the 156.41 Wednesday high. Since then the pair has gone sideways: today's session posted a lower high at 156.28 and sold into 155.33 around the NY open as the yen firmed ahead of the expected BoJ hike, before recovering back above the EMA(20) near 155.88 into the close. RSI(14) has cycled back to the low 50s from overbought, consistent with consolidation rather than trend extension.
Support: 155.88, 155.53, 155.33
Resistance: 156.28, 156.41
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI ex fresh food at 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision plus Ueda press conference Friday are the dominant event risks for this range
An hourly close above 156.41 (wed high) would resume the post-FOMC leg
Loss of the 155.33 day low would break the week's higher-low sequence and put the London low at 155.53 behind price
Repeated closes back under the EMA(20) would weaken the consolidation-in-uptrend read
Higher lows since Monday, first lower highs forming below 156.41.
USDJPY has ground higher all week from Monday's 153.35 open, with the dominant leg landing in the London-NY window on Wednesday when the hawkish Fed dot plot carried the pair from 154.83 to a 156.41 week high. Thursday's NY session handed much of that back as pre-BoJ yen demand pressed price to a 155.33 swing low before a recovery back above the EMA(20) at 155.76. RSI(14) has cycled down into the mid-40s and supply at the 155.91 session high and the 156.19 prior high has capped every attempt since the Wednesday peak.
Support: 155.76, 155.33, 155.00
Resistance: 155.91, 156.19, 156.41
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 155.33 swing low would confirm the first lower low of the week, with 155.00 psych the next reference beneath
Reclaim of the 156.19 prior high, then the 156.41 week high, would restore the week's uptrend structure
Loss of the 155.76 ema20 on a closing basis removes the pullback support that has held since Wednesday
BoJ decision Fri 03:00 GMT and Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT are the dominant events for this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's post-FOMC high, still above EMA50.
Monday's session opened near 153.35 and the pair ground higher all week before Wednesday's FOMC bar added roughly 95 pips in a single hour and extended to the week high at 156.41 — the hawkish dot plot did the work. Thursday has been corrective: a sequence of lower highs, an NY-hours flush to 155.33, the day low, and price now trading back under EMA(20) at 155.87. RSI(14) in the low 40s with the pullback stalling around the 38.2% retracement of the FOMC impulse.
Support: 155.33, 155.00, 154.83
Resistance: 155.87, 156.41
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 155.33 day low exposes the 155.00 psych level and the 154.83 pre-fomc low
An hourly close back above EMA(20) at 155.87 would break the Thursday lower-highs sequence
Week higher-lows line, now near 155.0, is the next structural reference beneath price
Japan CPI at 23:30 GMT and Friday's BoJ decision plus Ueda presser can materially reset this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend on the week, momentum stalling · RSI 44 · price 155.658
Lower highs since Wednesday's spike high, holding above 155.33.
The week opened near 153.53 and ground higher through Monday and Tuesday before the FOMC hike in Wednesday's NY session produced a 100-pip hourly candle off 154.83 (impulse base) to the 156.41 week high. Since that spike the sequence has turned to lower highs — the 156.30 prior high capped Thursday's Asian range and price has slipped back under the EMA20 at roughly 155.88, unwinding about half the post-FOMC move as hawkish BoJ repricing supported the yen into Friday's decision. The 155.33 session low from the NY morning drop is the near-term floor, with 155.53 prior low as the first shelf above it.
Support: 155.33, 155.53, 154.83
Resistance: 155.88, 156.30, 156.41
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI at 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision Friday 03:00 GMT, with Ueda's presser at 06:30 GMT, can reprice this structure entirely
An H1 close back above the 155.88 ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence built since Wednesday's high
Failure to hold 155.33 session low opens the path back toward the 154.83 impulse base
Acceptance above 156.30 prior high would put the 156.41 week high back in play
Post-breakout consolidation, lower highs since 156.41.
The dominant move of the week was the single hourly impulse into the NY session on Wednesday, when the hawkish Fed hike and steeper dot path took USDJPY from 154.97 to 156.41 and completed the breakout from the 155.00-155.45 grind. Since then price has bled back into a 155.33-155.91 consolidation as hawkish BoJ repricing ahead of Friday's decision put a bid under the yen; EMA(20) around 155.85 has capped the last three attempts and RSI(14) at 41 sits at its lowest of the week. Price is still above EMA(50) near 155.62, so the pullback remains inside the breakout base rather than through it.
Support: 155.33, 154.97
Resistance: 155.91, 156.19, 156.41
What it said to watch
Japan National CPI ex fresh food tonight 23:30 GMT and the BoJ decision plus Ueda presser Friday are the dominant risks to this consolidation read
Hourly closes back above the 155.91 swing high would re-open the 156.19 prior high and 156.41 week high
Loss of the 155.33 session low on a close would break the consolidation floor and expose the 154.97 breakout base
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 155.85 is the first condition for the lower-highs sequence to fail
13:03 UTC
Uptrend on the week, momentum fading · RSI 54 · price 155.571
Post-breakout pullback under a series of lower highs.
The dominant move of the week came in one hour of Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike lifted price off the 154.83 brkout base straight to the 156.41 week high. Since then it has been a controlled fade: three lower highs into Thursday, a session low at 155.33 on the last full bar, and price now trading back under the ema20 at 155.73 while still holding above EMA(50). RSI(14) has cooled from overbought to the mid-50s without breaking down, consistent with retest rather than reversal so far.
Support: 155.33, 155.00, 154.83
Resistance: 155.73, 155.91, 156.41
What it said to watch
H1 close below 155.33 session low would open the 155.00 psych level and the 154.83 brkout base
Reclaiming 155.91 prior high is needed before the 156.41 week high comes back into range
Japan CPI at 23:30 GMT, then Friday's BoJ decision and Ueda press conference, can reset this read entirely
US claims/Philly Fed reaction in the next NY hours is the near-term driver of the pullback's depth
Higher lows since Monday's open, but lower highs since Wednesday's spike high.
The dominant move of the week came in a single bar during Wednesday's late NY hours, when the hawkish Fed hike lifted price from 154.97 through the pre-FOMC ceiling to a 156.41 week high. Thursday has been a fade: the Asia high at 156.28 held, EMA(20) near 155.85 has capped every bounce, and the 12:00 GMT bar sold off to a 155.33 session low before stabilising around 155.57 as US yields slipped and post-FOMC longs took profit. RSI(14) at 46.6 has unwound from overbought without breaking the week's higher-low sequence off 153.35, and price is still above EMA(50).
Support: 155.33, 155.00, 154.83
Resistance: 155.91, 156.28, 156.41
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 155.91 (day high, EMA20 region) would negate Thursday's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 155.33 session low exposes the 155.00 round number and the 154.83 pre-fomc base
Japan National CPI at 23:30 GMT, then the BoJ decision and Ueda press conference on Friday, could materially reset this read — the hike is fully priced, so guidance is the variable
Loss of the week's higher-low trendline would end the retest read on the post-FOMC breakout
Higher highs/higher lows into 156.41, now consolidating above the 50% retrace of the FOMC impulse.
The week's dominant move came in a single hour: the 18:00 UTC Wednesday bar broke out of the 155.00-155.40 grind as the Fed's hawkish hike and a 4.1% current-year dot lifted the dollar, running to a week high at 156.41. Thursday has been a controlled pullback — Asia and early London traded down to the thu low at 155.53, roughly the 50% retrace of that impulse, before price recovered back onto the ema20 near 155.79 with hawkish BoJ repricing capping the topside. RSI(14) has cycled from overbought back to the high-40s without breaking the week's rising sequence of higher lows off 153.35.
Support: 155.79, 155.53, 155.00
Resistance: 156.13, 156.30, 156.41
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 155.53 thu low would confirm a lower-low and bring the 155.00 round number into focus
Reclaiming the 156.13 lower high and the 156.30 cited cap is required before the 156.41 week high is retested
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC today can decide whether this consolidation resolves higher
Japan National CPI tonight and Friday's BoJ decision/press conference are capable of resetting the entire H1 range
Higher lows off 153.35, but lower highs since Wednesday's 156.41 peak.
The week's dominant move was a single-hour, ~95-pip breakout out of the 155.00-155.40 shelf on the hawkish FOMC hike during Wednesday's NY session, extending to a week high at 156.41 in Asia. Thursday has been a give-back: a sequence of lower highs from 156.19 into a session low at 155.53 as hawkish BoJ repricing firmed the yen, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Price has recovered back onto EMA20 near 155.78 and is holding just above it into the London-NY transition.
Support: 155.78, 155.53
Resistance: 156.19, 156.41
What it said to watch
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC lands inside the next bar and can decide whether EMA20 holds
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant risk for this structure
Hourly close back below the 155.53 session low would confirm a lower low and break the week's higher-low sequence
Reclaiming the 156.19 lower-highs line reopens the 156.41 week high — area to monitor for rejection or break
Higher lows into a post-spike pullback holding EMA20.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week from Monday's 153.24 low, with the decisive leg arriving on the hawkish Fed hike and steeper dot plot, which lifted the pair through 155.00 in one candle and on to a 156.41 week high. The NY session then faded that move back under the 156.03 flip level, and Thursday's London hours have chopped either side of the EMA20 at 155.77 as yen buying ahead of the BoJ offsets the dollar bid, with RSI(14) unwound from overbought to roughly 52. That EMA20 area coincides with both the 38.2% retracement of the FOMC leg and the rising week trendline off the higher lows, leaving 155.53 swing low as the nearest structural marker below.
Support: 155.77, 155.53, 154.83
Resistance: 156.03, 156.41
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 156.03 flip level would put the 156.41 week high back in play
Failure to hold 155.53 swing low breaks the week's sequence of higher lows and exposes the 154.83 pre-fomc low
US claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC can resolve the EMA20 chop within the next bar or two
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT Friday and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are capable of invalidating this consolidation read entirely
Higher lows all week, lower highs since Wednesday's spike high.
Wednesday's NY session did all the work: the hawkish Fed hike and steeper dot plot drove a single-bar surge off 154.83 to the 156.412 week high, extending a sequence of higher lows that has been intact since Monday's open. Since then the pair has bled lower into Thursday's London session, printing lower highs under the 156.28 supply cap and basing at the 155.525 day low before the latest bar reclaimed the EMA20 at 155.76. RSI(14) has cycled down from overbought territory to the mid-40s without price breaking the week's higher-low structure.
Support: 155.76, 155.525, 154.97
Resistance: 156.28, 156.412
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 155.525 day low would break the week's higher-low sequence and expose the 154.97 pre-fomc base
Reclaiming the 156.28 supply cap is the condition for another test of the 156.412 week high
BoJ decision 03:00 GMT Friday and the Ueda presser at 06:30 GMT, plus US claims/Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC today, can reset this read entirely