Higher highs into 158.05 week high, now correcting into a tight 156.60-156.90 range.
Price has climbed from 154.21 at Monday's open to a 158.05 week high, the bulk of it in the two sessions after the BoJ's 'dovish hike' to 1.25% left JPY the clear laggard. The last four hours have been a rejection of that extreme: supply capped the 157.90 prior high, the pullback broke back under the ema20 near 157.05, and price is now compressing into a 156.60-156.90 band just above the ema50 at 156.50 with RSI(14) back near 43.
Support: 156.60, 156.50
Resistance: 157.05, 157.90, 158.05
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 157.05 would re-engage the week's up-leg toward the 157.90 prior high
Loss of the 156.60 session low and the 156.50 ema50 would confirm the first lower-low of the week
Approach to the 158.05 week high and the 158.42 area keeps MoF FX rhetoric in play
Fedspeak (Goolsbee Mon 10:30 UTC) and Wed's US flash PMIs are the next inputs capable of shifting this read
18:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading into Friday's close · RSI 45 · price 156.676
Higher highs since Wednesday's Fed, first lower high after the 158.05 rejection.
USDJPY trended higher all week: Wednesday's Fed hike and hawkish dot shift lifted it out of the 154.80–155.40 shelf, and Friday's 'dovish' BoJ hike to 1.25% carried the move to a 158.05 week high during the London session. The NY session gave back roughly 140 pips after the soft US industrial production print and a pullback in crude, leaving a lower high at 157.507 and the first hourly closes below ema20 near 157.00 since the BoJ decision. Price is now pinned between the 156.604 session low and ema50 at 156.460, with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought to the mid-40s.
Support: 156.604, 156.46, 155.331
Resistance: 157.00, 157.507, 158.053
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above 157.00/ema20 would re-engage the week's impulse toward the 158.053 week high
Acceptance below the 156.604 session low and ema50 at 156.460 would mark the first lower low of the week and bring the 155.331 prev day low into scope
158.42–160.00 is the band where Japanese official 'excessive moves' rhetoric has escalated previously — a structural cap risk on any extension
Fedspeak resumes Monday (Goolsbee) into a data-light week; flash PMIs Wednesday are the next scheduled USD-side test
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading off the week high · RSI 47 · price 156.779
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; first lower high forming after the 158.05 rejection.
USD/JPY ran from the Wednesday Fed-decision breakout at 154.83 to a week high at 158.05 in the first London hours of Friday, the final leg driven by the BoJ's dovish 25bp hike during the Asia session. NY hours have retraced roughly 130 pips and the pair has closed back under the ema20 at 157.03, with RSI(14) unwinding to the mid-40s from stretched levels. Price now sits between that ema20 overhead and the ema50 at 156.45, just above Friday's session low at 156.68.
Support: 156.68, 156.45, 156.13
Resistance: 157.03, 157.32, 158.05
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 157.03 (ema20) would put the 157.32 prior high and the 158.05 week high back in play
Loss of the 156.68 session low and the ema50 at 156.45 would confirm the first lower low of the week and expose the 156.13 prior day hi
158.42 through 160.00 is the flagged MoF/BoJ intervention-risk area — a zone to monitor for rejection rather than clean extension
Further Fedspeak and next week's US flash PMIs are the live USD-side risks to this read
Higher highs/higher lows since Wednesday, first lower high printed off 158.05.
The dominant move of the week came in two steps: a London-session break out of the 154.80–155.40 shelf on Wednesday, then a second impulse through 157.00 into the NY session after the BoJ's 25bp hike to 1.25% was read as a dovish delivery against hawkish pricing, with the Fed's hawkish dot-plot underpinning the carry leg. Price topped at the 158.05 week high and has since given back roughly 120 pips, slipping under the EMA(20) around 157.15 for the first time since the breakout while RSI(14) has unwound from overbought back to the mid-50s. Structure is still a sequence of higher lows off 155.52, but the rejection from the week high is the first lower high of the move.
Support: 156.50, 156.00
Resistance: 157.15, 158.05, 158.42
What it said to watch
Hourly acceptance back above the ema20 at 157.15 would restore the breakout sequence; repeated closes below it keep the pullback intact
Loss of the 156.50 prior low breaks the week's higher-low chain and puts the 156.00 pre-boj area back in play
158.05 week high and the 158.42 psych res area — zone to monitor for rejection or break, with Japanese official FX rhetoric a live factor there
Fedspeak and any front-end yield follow-through are the near-term drivers into next week's US PMIs
15:25 UTC
Uptrend, extended after BoJ · RSI 66 · price 157.40
Higher highs and higher lows all week, first pullback from the high.
USDJPY has trended one way since Monday's open, lifting from 154.27 through the post-FOMC jump on Wednesday and then accelerating in Friday's Tokyo/London hours after the BoJ's dovish-flavoured 25bp hike to 1.25%, printing a week high at 158.05. The last two hours have given some of that back — the prior bar dipped to 156.97 before closing at 157.44 — leaving price just above the EMA(20) around 157.25 with RSI(14) near 66 after failing to make a new momentum high alongside the 158.05 print. Every pullback this week has been bought back into the EMA(20), and the rising sequence of higher lows off 155.53 remains intact.
Support: 157.25, 157.00
Resistance: 158.05, 158.50
What it said to watch
Hourly close back under the 157.00 round number would break the week's higher-lows sequence
Acceptance above the 158.05 week high extends the post-BoJ leg toward the 158.50 psych area
Loss of the EMA(20) near 157.25 on a closing basis marks the first change of character since Wednesday
Fed speaker risk later in the US session plus thin Tokyo liquidity into next week can exaggerate moves in both directions
Series of higher highs / higher lows since Wednesday, now stalling under the week high.
Price has travelled roughly 270 pips from Monday's 153.98 low, with the two step-changes coming off the hawkish Fed on Wednesday evening and the dovish-read BoJ hike this morning, which took the pair from 156.20 into 158.05 during the London session. Pullbacks have been shallow and have held above the EMA20, now near 157.15, while the 157.50 prior high marks the last breakout shelf; Friday's 156.50 low was the Ueda press-conference dip. RSI(14) near 73 is overbought and the last four hours have gone sideways just under the 158.00 psych level, the first pause in the advance since the BoJ.
Support: 157.50, 157.15, 156.50
Resistance: 158.05, 158.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the EMA20 at 157.15 would break the pattern of shallow pullbacks
Loss of 156.50 friday low would confirm the first lower low since Wednesday
Acceptance above the 158.05 week high extends the impulse into the 158-160 area flagged by the market
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed's Bowman later today are the remaining USD catalysts into the weekly close
MoF/BoJ FX rhetoric becomes a headline risk the closer price trades to 158.00-160.00
Successive higher highs and higher lows, fresh week-high breakout.
Price has climbed in a stair-step sequence since Monday's session open near 154.55, with every pullback so far holding the H1 ema20 and the rising support line off the 154.96 and 156.50 lows. The dominant leg came in today's Tokyo-to-London window: the fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% and softer core CPI triggered a sell-the-fact move in JPY, and the break of the 157.32 prior high extended to a session high at 157.91. RSI(14) near 79 is the most stretched reading of the week, so the advance is running without a corrective bar.
Support: 157.32, 156.50
Resistance: 157.91, 158.00
What it said to watch
158.00 psych level directly overhead — area to monitor for rejection or acceptance above
An hourly close back under 157.32 prior high would break the current higher-high sequence
Loss of 156.50 swing low would invalidate the rising support line off this week's lows
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and Ueda follow-up commentary could reshape this read within the next few bars
Successive higher highs and higher lows, fresh week high.
Two distinct impulses defined the week: the FOMC hike lifted the pair off 154.98 during Wednesday's NY session, and today's Asia session extended it after the fully-priced BoJ move to 1.25% landed alongside a 1.7% core CPI miss — classic sell-the-fact yen weakness. Price dipped to a 156.50 day low around the Ueda press conference before reclaiming the 157.08 prior high into the London open and printing a 157.60 week high. RSI(14) near 77 is the most stretched reading of the window and EMA(20) sits well below at 156.57, so the trend is intact but extended.
Support: 157.08, 156.57, 156.50
Resistance: 157.60, 158.00
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 157.60 week high opens the 158.00 round number as the next reference
Loss of the 157.08 prior high would be the first lower-high signal since the Asia-session breakout
An H1 close back below EMA(20) at 156.57 and the 156.50 day low would argue the sell-the-fact leg is complete
US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT and further parsing of Ueda's remarks are the near-term headline risks
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 72 · price 156.932
Week-range break higher, session high rejected.
USDJPY broke out of the 155.35–156.40 range that had held since Monday's open, running through Tokyo hours to a 157.32 session high as the fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% carried no surprise value. The 06:00 GMT bar rejected that high with an 80-pip slide into the 156.50 spike low before closing back at 156.93, leaving price above the H1 ema20 near 156.40. RSI(14) near 72 is the highest of the week, and every pullback since Thursday's post-Fed impulse has held the rising higher-lows line.
Support: 156.50, 156.40, 156.13
Resistance: 157.32, 158.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 156.40 ema20 would undo the range break momentum
Loss of the 156.13 prior-day high would put the range break in doubt and re-open the 155.35 area
Reclaim of the 157.32 session high on a close basis puts the 158.00 psych level in focus
Ueda's press conference commentary and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT can reset this read within the next few bars
Higher highs and higher lows; range break to new week high.
Price spent Thursday's NY session and the Asian range grinding sideways under 156.30 before the Asia-into-London window today produced a vertical 100-pip expansion to a 157.32 session high, a textbook sell-the-fact reaction to the fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25%. The prior range top at 156.13 and Wednesday's post-FOMC high near 156.41 — where EMA(20) now sits — flipped from ceiling to support on the break, and the sequence of higher lows from 155.33 has held all week. RSI(14) near 80 is the most stretched reading of the window, so the impulse is running without a pullback to structure.
Support: 156.41, 156.13, 155.93
Resistance: 157.32, 158.00
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference 06:30 GMT is the dominant catalyst for the next bars and can materially shift this read
First hourly close back below 156.41 (ema20) would end the unbroken higher-low sequence
Loss of the 156.13 range top invalidates the breakout read and puts 155.93 swing low back in play
Acceptance above the 157.32 session high opens the path toward the 158.00 round number
RSI(14) near 80 into a new high — a lower high with a flat RSI print would mark bearish divergence
Series of higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open, fresh week high.
Price has climbed in a stair-step fashion from Monday's 154.02 open, with each pullback holding above the H1 EMA(20) and the higher-lows line off 153.98. The Asia session accelerated after the BoJ delivered the fully priced 25bp hike to 1.25% alongside a 2.0% core CPI beat — a 'sell the fact' unwind of freshly built JPY longs pushed the pair through the 156.50 prior cap to a new week high at 157.15. RSI(14) is now stretched near 79, the most extended reading of the week, with no pullback yet to test the 156.13 break base.
Support: 156.50, 156.13, 155.55
Resistance: 157.15, 157.30, 158.00
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference (Ueda) around 06:30 GMT is the immediate binary for this read — guidance on hike sequencing, not the hike itself
An hourly close back below 156.50 would put the breakout in false-break territory and re-open the 155.55 swing low
Acceptance above the 157.30 upside mark keeps the path toward 158.00 psych open
Fed's Bowman 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC land inside the next session
04:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum extended after BoJ squeeze · RSI 79 · price 157.013
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday, fresh breakout above the week's range top.
Higher lows all week from Monday's 153.95 base, with Wednesday's hawkish FOMC leg carrying price through 155 during the NY session and the EMA20 near 156.20 catching every pullback since. The BoJ's fully-priced hike to 1.25% then triggered a sell-the-fact yen unwind in the Asia session — a near-90 pip vertical extension of the week's impulse to a session high of 157.14, clearing the 156.50 cap that had capped Thursday. RSI(14) around 79 is overbought and the breakout base at 156.55 has not been retested.
Support: 156.55, 156.20, 155.33
Resistance: 157.14, 157.30, 158.00
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT is the immediate risk to this read
Hourly close back below the 156.55 breakout base would frame the squeeze as a false break
Acceptance above the session high opens the 157.30 upside obj, then the 158.00 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 156.20 would put the week's higher lows sequence and the 155.33 swing low back in focus
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh impulse leg · RSI 75 · price 156.635
Higher lows since Thursday; breakout above the pre-BoJ range top.
Price has ground higher all week from 153.94, and the pre-BoJ balance between 155.87 and the 156.28 range top broke to the upside on the BoJ decision hour, printing a spike high at 156.861 before settling at 156.635. The sequence of higher lows off Thursday's low at 155.33 remains intact, with the EMA20 at 156.07 having contained the pullbacks through the Asia session. RSI(14) at 74.5 is the highest reading of the window, so momentum is stretched rather than building.
Support: 156.28, 156.07, 155.33
Resistance: 156.861, 157.30
What it said to watch
Ueda press conference at 06:30 UTC is the dominant near-term driver — a cautious tone versus market pricing has already been the fuel for this leg
An hourly close back below the 156.28 range top would reject the breakout and return price to the prior balance
Loss of the EMA20 at 156.07 breaks the higher-low sequence built off Thursday's low at 155.33
Acceptance above the 156.861 spike high leaves 157.30 as the next reference
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding back toward week high · RSI 65 · price 156.221
Higher lows since Thursday's 155.33 low, holding above EMA20.
The week opened near 154.00 and the dominant move came in a single hour on the hawkish FOMC hike, a ~95 pip bar that carried price to the 156.41 week high. Thursday's London and NY sessions gave part of that back as JPY led G10 into the BoJ, with 155.33 marking the low, but Asia has rebuilt a sequence of higher lows and price is back at 156.22, above EMA20 near 155.95 with RSI(14) at 65. The overnight core CPI beat (2.0% vs 1.8%) has kept the pullback shallow rather than reversing the post-FOMC structure.
Support: 155.95, 155.65, 155.33
Resistance: 156.32, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference are the dominant near-term risk and can invalidate this read in a single bar
Hourly close above the 156.32 day high then 156.41 week high extends the post-FOMC uptrend
Loss of the 155.65 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 155.33 thurs low back in play
Rejection at 156.32 while EMA20 holds keeps this a flag/consolidation rather than continuation
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; four-day range top being retested.
USDJPY has trended up all week from Monday's 153.74 low, with the decisive leg coming in the NY session on Wednesday when the hawkish Fed hike drove a near-100 pip hourly candle through 155 and on to the 156.412 week high. Thursday's BoJ-repricing pullback held at the 155.33 swing low and price has since worked back above the ema20 near 155.93, closing the Asia session at 156.158 just under the 156.282 session high. RSI(14) near 58 has cycled 40-70 through the week without making a fresh momentum high alongside price, so the recovery is shallower in momentum terms than the initial impulse.
Support: 155.93, 155.33, 154.80
Resistance: 156.282, 156.412, 156.50
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT sit inside the next few H1 bars and can invalidate any intraday read
An hourly close above the 156.412 week high opens the path toward the 156.50 psych area
Loss of the ema20 and then the 155.33 swing low would confirm a lower low and put the 154.80 pivot back in focus
Sustained trade back under 155.93 with RSI slipping below 50 would break the week's higher-low sequence
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening near week high · RSI 61 · price 156.175
Higher lows since Monday, last two days coiling in a 155.33–156.41 range.
Price has climbed from Monday's 153.63 low in a sequence of higher lows, with the dominant leg a single 95-pip impulse bar into the NY session after the Fed hike that carried spot to the 156.41 week high. The last two sessions have gone sideways between the 155.33 swing low and that high, and the Asia-hours bar around the Japan CPI release lifted spot back to 156.175, above EMA(20) near 155.92. RSI(14) at 61 has cycled 45–70 inside the range rather than pushing to a new extreme, matching the flatter structure.
Support: 155.92, 155.53, 155.33
Resistance: 156.30, 156.41
What it said to watch
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT and the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT are the dominant events for the next bars and can invalidate the range read outright
Hourly close above the 156.41 week high would resolve the consolidation higher; failure at the 156.30 prior high keeps the range intact
Loss of the 155.33 swing low, having already broken the 155.53 prior-day low, would confirm a lower low and end the higher-low sequence
Sustained trade back below the ema20 at 155.92 would remove the support that has caught each pullback since Wednesday