Higher highs and higher lows off the 153.00 base; first bearish outside bar at the highs.
USDJPY has built an unbroken sequence of higher lows since the 152.89–153.25 base, and the break above the 156.30–156.41 shelf carried into a 158.05 week high after the BoJ's 25bp 'dovish hike' undershot jumbo-hike pricing while the Fed's hawkish dots kept the differential wide. The final bar reversed the entire advance from 157.62, closing at 156.85 and leaving a rejection wick beneath the week high. EMA20 (156.09) is above EMA50 (155.62) and price holds both, while ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 65 pips from the low-40s a week ago — an expanding, not compressing, regime.
Support: 156.09, 155.33, 154.83
Resistance: 158.05, 160.00
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the 158.05 week high would extend the higher-high sequence toward the 160.00 psych 160 area, where the digest flags MoF/BoJ intervention risk
A close back below the ema20 at 156.09 would put the 155.33 swing low in play and question the breakout
Loss of the 154.83 prior low would break the higher-low chain that has defined the last two weeks
S&P Global Flash PMIs on Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's main US data risk and could reprice the October hike odds behind this move
13:02 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive recovery leg · RSI 72 · price 157.827
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 base.
After the slide from the 160.20 range high into the 152.89 base, USDJPY has built a clean sequence of higher lows and has now cleared the 156.40 breakout lvl, printing a week high at 158.05 — the move accelerated on the dovish-read BoJ delivery at 1.25% and soft core CPI against a hawkish Fed. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 61 pips from the mid-30s of the basing phase, consistent with an extending leg rather than compression, and price is holding above both EMA20 and EMA50 after the bullish cross. The 158.72 prior swing zone is the next overhead shelf, with RSI near 72 showing the leg is stretched.
Support: 156.40, 155.33
Resistance: 158.05, 158.72, 160.20
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 158.72 prior swing would open the path back toward the 160.20 range high
A close back under the 156.40 breakout lvl would mark failed follow-through and re-engage the 155.33 swing low
MoF/BoJ FX rhetoric becomes a live headline risk as price probes the high-157s/158s
Fedspeak and next week's US flash PMIs are the main drivers for the rate-gap story behind this leg
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 low.
Higher highs and higher lows have been in place since the 152.89 low, and the latest leg cleared the 156.41 swing high before closing at 157.58 — through the 61.8% retracement of the 160.39–152.89 decline at 157.52. The fully-priced BoJ hike to 1.25% alongside softer core CPI produced a sell-the-fact yen unwind, while the hawkish Fed dot path keeps the rate gap wide. EMA20 sits back above EMA50 and ATR(14) near 58 pips points to range expansion rather than compression, with 158.00 psych the next obvious reference.
Support: 156.50, 155.33, 154.83
Resistance: 158.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 156.50 breakout lvl would negate the breakout read
Loss of the 155.33 higher low would end the higher-low sequence; 154.83 swing low is the structural pivot below
US flash S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the week's main event risk for this pair
Tokyo closed Mon-Wed for Silver Week — thin liquidity can produce gappy moves; approach to 158.00 psych also raises the odds of MoF rhetoric
Higher highs / higher lows off the 152.89 base, fresh breakout above the range cap.
The 160.39-to-152.89 slide has been fully corrective for two weeks, with a double bottom near 152.89/153.24 giving way to a clean sequence of higher lows at 154.83 and 155.33 and an EMA20/EMA50 bullish cross. The last bar cleared the 156.45 prior cap that had contained the recovery and printed 157.14, the widest H4 range in a week — the in-line BoJ hike to 1.25% and a 2.0% core CPI beat failed to hold yen gains against still-firm post-FOMC US front-end pricing. ATR(14) near 56 pips is expanding rather than compressing, leaving the prior swing supply at 157.55 and the 158.00 round number as the next reference points overhead.
Support: 156.45, 155.33, 154.83
Resistance: 157.55, 158.00
What it said to watch
BoJ press conference (Ueda) inside the next bar is a high-impact binary for this structure
A close back below the 156.45 prior cap would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 155.33 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence built off the 152.89 base
Acceptance above 157.55 prior swing opens the 158.00 round number
01:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the base, grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 156.169
Higher highs and higher lows since the 153.35 low, coiling under 156.41.
After the 160.39-to-152.89 slide, price has built a clean higher-low sequence over the past week and now trades above both EMA20 and EMA50, with the impulse bar into 156.41 marking the top of the recovery leg. The last five bars have coiled in a tight 155.33-156.18 band, holding above the 38.2% retracement of that decline while the 61.8% level sits at 157.52 — the post-FOMC hawkish repricing in US front-end rates is the underlying driver, offset by Japanese core CPI at 2.0%. ATR(14) near 47 pips is elevated versus the pre-decline regime, and the compression under the recent high leaves the pair pressed against a well-defined cap.
Support: 155.33, 154.83, 152.89
Resistance: 156.41, 156.76, 157.52
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 156.41 recent high opens the 156.76 prior high and the 157.52 fib 61.8 area
Loss of the 155.33 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 154.83 pivot low back in focus
BoJ decision at 03:00 GMT with a 25bp move near fully priced, then the Ueda press conference at 06:30 GMT — either can reset this structural read inside one bar
Failure to hold above EMA20 after a rejection at 156.41 would mark the recovery leg stalling