21:04 UTC
Uptrend off the 152.89 low, momentum cooling · RSI 64 · price 156.867
Higher highs and higher lows since the 152.89 base; price in the upper half of the three-week range after a 158.05 spike and pullback.
After the slide from 160.39 to 152.89, price has built a sequence of higher lows and last week broke out of the 154.83–155.49 consolidation, extending to a 158.05 swing high before giving back roughly 120 pips into the 156.60 area — the dovish BoJ delivery on Friday and the hawkish Fed dot path are the drivers behind that recovery leg. The move has retraced a little over half of the 160.39–152.89 downswing, with 158.05 sitting close to the deeper fib zone and capping the first attempt. ATR(14) near 66 pips marks an expanding regime rather than compression, and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low 60s.
Support: 156.50, 155.30, 154.83
Resistance: 158.05, 159.43
What it said to watch
- An H4 close above 158.05 swing high extends the recovery leg and puts the 159.43 prior pivot back in play
- Loss of 156.50 swing low turns the read back toward the 155.30 ema50 zone and the 154.83 range floor
- US flash PMIs on Wed are the week's main scheduled risk and could materially shift this structural read
- Failure to hold above EMA20 after the 158.05 rejection would break the higher-low sequence